Search found 123 matches

by over45
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162756

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This is a very dangerous virus, no doubt. But I keep returning to the feeling that we are being manipulated and “played” and that in the process we are destroying our economy. I have to agree with you. House crisis bill has "digital currency" inserted along with a slew of non-crisis wish-list items...
by over45
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28291

Re: It's Not Different This Time

+1 Not sure why so many people are mussing this basic point. High unemployment is directly related to Corona and will recover quite rapidly with dissipation of Corona fears. Where are all of the companies that went out of business, or investors who lost substantial savings -- going to get the money...
by over45
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need Explanation: Why Locking in Losses is Bad
Replies: 26
Views: 1945

Re: Need Explanation: Why Locking in Losses is Bad

Maybe he should move half. There are no losses (or gains) until you actually sell.
by over45
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28291

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Reading this thread and board is a fascinating look into market psychology, personal insights and education of market participants. I see statements of justification, acknowledgement of reality, and outright denial. People have been conditioned to anticipate govt. responses with prior positive resul...
by over45
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Buyback: Breaking News
Replies: 25
Views: 3329

Re: Fed Buyback: Breaking News

The purpose of open QE is solely to support price levels. A recovery is virtually guaranteed. Why should the FED bail out investors and pension funds who made bad investment decisions? They are not a part of the federal govt. This is another panic move on their part and there is probably a daisy ch...
by over45
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Get out now or ride it out?
Replies: 85
Views: 6837

Re: Get out now or ride it out?

I just came across this website which shows quite a bit of information / statistics on everything from stocks, commodities, currencies, etc. There is a "forecasts" section link at the top that projects out 4 quarters - though the information may not be completely updated. Seems legit. Might be worth...
by over45
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2220

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

I would like to know what Ben Felix recommended his clients do 2 months ago. Does anyone know?
by over45
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price
Replies: 17
Views: 1368

Re: Physical silver price decoupled from spot price

I buy silver every week and have to agree with the last poster. People are panic buying silver eagles and other coins right now and the dealers are taking advantage of the situation. I went to buy some Canadian Maples at a pre-panic advertised price and was told they were out of stock, and then mira...
by over45
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This time it's different
Replies: 32
Views: 4225

Re: This time its different

Sure, but that's a non sequitur from your fiat currency argument. I ask again, what of it, and I mean what of your post I first responded to in this thread. PJW I answered the question. Plan accordingly. The point being: the fiat dollar as a currency will eventually not survive in it's current form.
by over45
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This time it's different
Replies: 32
Views: 4225

Re: This time its different

Same applies to the historical survival rate of individuals, empires, and cultures.

What of it?
Plan accordingly.
by over45
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This time it's different
Replies: 32
Views: 4225

Re: This time its different

This time its different.
chevca wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:12 pm
The four most dangerous words in investing.....
Same applies to the historical survival rate of fiat currencies.
by over45
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Silver for apocalypse
Replies: 63
Views: 3130

Re: Buying Silver for apocalypse

nope.
by over45
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who do you follow for market insights ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2556

Re: Who do you follow for market insights ?

The problem with market "insights" (as in "the market did this because", "the market will do that because") that these are all somewhere between educated guesses, self-delusions and outright lies. If you believe this than it is reasonable to conclude that any investment decisions that anyone makes ...
by over45
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contagion or Fear of Contagion in Security Prices
Replies: 1
Views: 127

Re: Contagion or Fear of Contagion in Security Prices

I don't follow the stocks you mentioned but my take is that this is partly a forced liquidation event and partly a confidence event whereby people don't know what is going to happen or if they will get repaid. Kind of like the WeWork debt fiasco on steroids.
by over45
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have Cash: Payoff Mortgage or Invest in this fire sale
Replies: 20
Views: 1645

Re: Have Cash: Payoff Mortgage or Invest in this fire sale

pull up a 30 year chart of the Dow and let us know if you still think this is a fire-sale level...
by over45
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who do you follow for market insights ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2556

Re: Who do you follow for market insights ?

Making a correct call here or there means little; they're just lucky guesses, no better than a coin flip. If that is true -- than any calls you make are the same - just lucky guesses. But I don't think that's the way it works. There is so much going on in the world -- with various entities have the...
by over45
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Silver for apocalypse
Replies: 63
Views: 3130

Re: Buying Silver for apocalypse

If anyone is thinking of selling their silver -- please contact me - I am buying... particularly interested in "coin silver" spoons and flatware, but will consider anything made of silver. Tks.
by over45
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who do you follow for market insights ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2556

Re: Who do you follow for market insights ?

Portfolio7 - thank you for these links - I will have to check them out. I came across someone who charges a subscription fee - but he is very good and called this decline from the top to within 2 pts on the S&P yesterday. I also subscribe to Socrates by Martin Armstrong for the big macro view and co...
by over45
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to get the highest (and safest) return on savings right now ?
Replies: 28
Views: 2400

Re: Where to get the highest (and safest) return on savings right now ?

I am computing it correctly but it is not a highly scalable thing... but enough to buy groceries and pay the rent...
by over45
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to get the highest (and safest) return on savings right now ?
Replies: 28
Views: 2400

Re: Where to get the highest (and safest) return on savings right now ?

So how bout now?

Where to get the highest (and safest) return on savings right now ?

I am not in the market for the exact reason originally stated.
by over45
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Back out of RE purchase due to Coronavirus
Replies: 10
Views: 991

Re: Back out of RE purchase due to Coronavirus

Contrarian view: People are moving from high tax states to low tax states. The fed is pumping trillions into the market and will probably increase the amount exponentially. Mortgage rates will probably drop some more to counter declining demand. Real estate is a tangible asset where investment accou...
by over45
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162756

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

NC Governor just ordered all restaurants and bars to close down... wow.
by over45
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold is taking a monster hit
Replies: 64
Views: 5166

Re: Gold is taking a monster hit

paper gold and silver are taking hits - and have further to go down. physical is another story and some places have raised the price for physical.
by over45
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default
Replies: 167
Views: 11075

Re: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default

A relative of mine works at the highest level in Accounting for a major big box company. There is a good chance 50% of the people here have been in one of their stores. They are not getting paid by some customers and lines of credit have dramatically tightened, which in turn in creating cash flow is...
by over45
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255534

Re: Coronavirus and the market

My brother lives in the center of Madrid, Spain and is under mandatory quarantine for two weeks...
by over45
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162756

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Here in NC: - Music event we were going to attend this weekend cancelled. - Antique show this Sat is cancelled. - Some schools closed - State college on extended break with students looking to take classes online. - Paper products isle empty - Flight attendant daughter asked to take unpaid leave of ...
by over45
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255534

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I read an article that said that a leading German bank has a huge amount of derivatives that are at risk if it's stock drops and holds below $6.40. It did that this morning...
by over45
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255534

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Market seems to have priced in a best case scenario initially. Now it's gravitating towards a worst case one. Which is correct? Pull up a 30 year chart of the Dow and take a look. The coronavirus is not the cause of this - it is the underlying debt crisis which is being brought to light by the virus.
by over45
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255534

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Demand is way down. People aren't flying.

Actually, I don't want to fly now, either.
My daughter is a flight attendant. Her airline is encouraging workers to take voluntary leave. Pink slips might be coming soon.
by over45
Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255534

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Groupon now at $0.99 cents
by over45
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who do you follow for market insights ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2556

Who do you follow for market insights ?

There are quite a few investment pundits and forecasters out there giving their take on the financial markets. Wonder who people here follow to gain insight on the markets -- be it stocks, bonds, currency, political implications, etc. Who has been the most accurate that you have found? Trying to exp...
by over45
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone buying oil/energy sector?!
Replies: 56
Views: 4828

Re: Anyone buying oil/energy sector?!

Oil goes into everything in one way or another. I am going to buy some of this sector soon...
by over45
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's and Mutual Funds protecting themselves for declines
Replies: 2
Views: 250

ETF's and Mutual Funds protecting themselves for declines

This may be a stupid question but I'm going to ask it anyway.

Do ETF's and Mutual Funds generally protect themselves against potential declines, or do they simply invest in a basket of stocks / bonds and follow the market?
by over45
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255534

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Oil down over 20%. Wow.
by over45
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255534

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The market was actually up a little last week. Personally I think things are worse than they are letting on - but that doesn't matter. My wife received a message from her boss who is very close to the CEO of a sizeable corporation - who indicated that friends and family really need to prepare for wh...
by over45
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about FEDs rates... :
Replies: 17
Views: 801

Re: Question about FEDs rates... :

well, we know free market rates would be at least 10% between banks because that's what it spiked to before the fed stepped in for repos. what is good for the economy? is it catering to the addiction of cheap credit or is it giving it tough love and letting it come to grips with the reality of where...
by over45
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stocks during Two Modern-Era Pandemics, 1957 & 1968
Replies: 44
Views: 5435

Re: U.S. Stocks during Two Modern-Era Pandemics, 1957 & 1968

I don't know what is going to happen - but numerous companies (and countries) are saddled with debt that has to be repaid or refinanced - and if their cash flow decreases - what next? Here is a paper from the St. Louis FED on the history of interest rates before and after the great depression. If th...
by over45
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)
Replies: 99
Views: 7083

Re: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)

You could store precious metals in a safe deposit box at a credit union or bank
probably not a good idea if things really head south and the govt wants to confiscate gold - that's the first place they'll look.
by over45
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stocks during Two Modern-Era Pandemics, 1957 & 1968
Replies: 44
Views: 5435

Re: U.S. Stocks during Two Modern-Era Pandemics, 1957 & 1968

Personally I think this is going to be much bigger than people are letting on - since the global supply chain is so interconnected and debt levels are so high. I used to work for a company that made parts that went into commercial products, and we would make an item - then send it to someone else wh...
by over45
Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly is Book/Sh Value ??
Replies: 5
Views: 266

Re: What exactly is Book/Sh Value ??

Thanks. I wanted to clarify because I was checking various stocks and looking at Exxon who's share price is right around Book/Sh value. Then I checked Home Depot who's stock is $226, but their Book/Sh is -0.99. Seems like a major red flag to me if that figure is right.
by over45
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate cuts, pumped up equities endgame
Replies: 29
Views: 3101

Re: Interest rate cuts, pumped up equities endgame

While I don't disagree with you in principle, and the former hedge fund manager was a math major in college, he also underperformed my 8020 portfolio for a decade, which is why he closed shop at the end of last year. What was his actual return? If he closed shop at the end of 2019 - he is a genius.
by over45
Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate cuts, pumped up equities endgame
Replies: 29
Views: 3101

Re: Interest rate cuts, pumped up equities endgame

Theory: I would be more inclined to listen to the former hedge fund manager about what the endgame is than people who hope for a traditional resolution to the process. There is so much unknown information about the true effects of derivatives, dark pools, missing trillions, etc. It will go on until ...
by over45
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly is Book/Sh Value ??
Replies: 5
Views: 266

What exactly is Book/Sh Value ??

Can someone please explain Book/Sh value which is listed as a dollar figure on each stock listing? Am I correct in assuming that it equals the actual "book" value of assets owned by the company after deducting debt and liabilities owed. So if a company had to be sold or broken up - the book value is...
by over45
Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about FEDs rates... :
Replies: 17
Views: 801

Re: Question about FEDs rates... :

What will this recent lowering of the rate by 50bps do to Money Market Mutual fund yields? I suspect they will slowly go down to catch up with this recent drop since bond yields have gone lower and most funds are in short duration paper. Is that correct thinking?
by over45
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255534

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Groupon stock is at $1.09.
by over45
Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)
Replies: 99
Views: 7083

Re: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)

I am trying to figure out the same thing right now. Been looking at 10 year CD rates - non callable - and am depressed. My state (NC) is booming and I am looking into how to buy municipal bonds and research if those would be a stable investment if held to maturity. Anyone have any insight on buying ...
by over45
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162756

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Out of curiosity, why is this surprising?
It's disconcerting more than surprising.
by over45
Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162756

Re: Coronavirus and the market

case just reported in Wake Forest, NC about 25 miles away from me... person came from WA they say. if it's this easy for people to move it around -- we need to rethink things...