Search found 94 matches

by balbrec2
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 835

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

Defined contribution plans are not normally referred to as pensions but rather what ever
IRS code they are known by, 401k, 403b, various IRA's. I just want to eliminate any confusion
for anyone else reading this thread.
best regards :happy
by balbrec2
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 835

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

This is the first I have ever heard of a pension (defined benefit plan) that could be managed
by the person to whom the pension is due.
by balbrec2
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighbor discussing finances with me
Replies: 64
Views: 5814

Re: Neighbor discussing finances with me

Just because he is sharing his finances with you doesn't mean you should offer advice.
He has an advisor ( however good or bad). Stay out of it and stay friends.
by balbrec2
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Education Savings Account
Replies: 2
Views: 193

Re: Education Savings Account

Any money that you are definitely counting on during the next 5 years should not be at risk.
Stick to CD's, money market or ultra short term bond funds
by balbrec2
Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keep a backup hot water heater?
Replies: 97
Views: 4592

Re: Keep a backup hot water heater?

Probably more important to keep a spare sump pump if your dwelling has one and runs regularly
by balbrec2
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4350

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

Within the realm of equity investing , yes!
Consider that some of the best run, most profitable companies in the
world are located outside the US. Why would you not want to own them?
As part of a total AA, not so much! Still I want to own some internationals.
by balbrec2
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6410

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

If you have to cut and run, your AA is likely too aggressive.
by balbrec2
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?
Replies: 28
Views: 2256

Re: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?

I've always subscribed to the theory that any money you know you'll need with the next 5 years should not be in equities or even long term bonds. Especially in today's environment, I would stick to short bonds, money market or CD's. Also as an aside, never sacrifice your retirement money in favor of...
by balbrec2
Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Think it's time for a HELOC
Replies: 5
Views: 767

Re: Think it's time for a HELOC

One additional item to consider with a Line fo Credit is if the line is secured with your home or unsecured. A unsecured line will have a higher interest rate but will not increase the risk to your home. The fact that its a HELOC means it is secured by the Home. Otherwise it would just be a persona...
by balbrec2
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7656

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

goodenyou wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:46 pm
What's in Your Safe?
Gold is non productive asset as is silver. They are insurance against calamity.
I keep $1K in silver half dollars in my safe as well as a similar amount of cash in 20 dollar notes.
That's as far as I will invest in precious metals.
by balbrec2
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 99
Views: 15442

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jack-bogle-envisions-chaos-catastrophe-markets-everyone-indexed-194610197.html “If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe,” said Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on Saturday. “There would be no tra...
by balbrec2
Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 14716

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

U.S. stocks are nuts. Shiller CAPE now stands at 33.36 and the only time in history it was higher was Feb, 1998 to Mar 2001 which would have been a wild ride. If you had gotten out of stocks in Feb 1998 you could have stayed out for 12 years and gotten back in at the price you sold, meanwhile makin...
by balbrec2
Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 289
Views: 44621

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

For most people, I believe it is wise to never be all in, or all out.
Just sayin!
by balbrec2
Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9373

Re: Call the Top!

Exercise in futility. Anyone can get lucky!
by balbrec2
Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which bond asset class best protects against stock market crash?
Replies: 9
Views: 1164

Re: Which bond asset class best protects against stock market crash?

60/40 AA is a poor one for someone trying to utilize a bond tent unless they desire to end up at 80/20 or higher. I would fully expect someone wishing to utilize a bond tent strategy to be more along the lines of 40/60 or even 30/70 AA, just prior to retirement. An intermediate Treasury fund is all ...
by balbrec2
Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2271
Views: 1439195

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I was disappointed it did not have a comprehensive historic return grid for a Vanguard 3 fund portfolio at 10%, 20%, & 30% stock/bond split for Vanguard shares. SWBoarder: I do not like using past returns because past performance does not forecast future performance. Nevertheless, you can see past ...
by balbrec2
Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High expense ratio worth it/Portfolio review
Replies: 48
Views: 3622

Re: High expense ratio worth it/Portfolio review

Hey everyone, first time poster here, long time lurker on the forums. I had a question about our current investment strategy that wanted to get your opinion on. Some background, I am 33, married, no kids. I have an individual IRA that has rollovers from previous employment, a SEP IRA that I am curr...
by balbrec2
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: How to add $340,000 to retirement savings
Replies: 77
Views: 11199

Re: Retirees: How to add $340,000 to retirement savings

Scott Burns reports a simple way for some retirees to add the equivalent of $340,000 to their retirement savings - become a renter: In my new book with economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff (“The Clash of Generations,” MIT Press) we show that a retiring middle income couple can have lifetime discretionar...
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 4937

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

Doom Lol... Doom is between the ears if you allow it in. Keep Investing, :happy If you are in retirement keeping enough in stable assets to carry you through 3 years or so you will be fine. Let your stocks ride the waves. If you are not in retirement or at least five years away it's all a moot poin...
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 4937

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

bengal22 wrote:
Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:56 am
For a forum that advocates against market timing this article is a big nothing burger. Yes at some point market will go down.
And when it does, you rebalance as required. EOS
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Difficulties Of Discipline
Replies: 12
Views: 1503

Re: Larry Swedroe: Difficulties Of Discipline

Dottie57 wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:21 pm
The most important discipline is to keep investing in bad and good markets. It needs to be a steady drum beat.
Make a plan that you can be comfortable with in bad times and also serves your needs over time.
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the money going?
Replies: 21
Views: 2948

Re: Where is the money going?

I am a student of all this but with all students I am always learning. Especially with past performance never equally future results. S0......With the FAANGs and tech dropping I have been watching curiously where that money would go to. If people are selling off one thing where are they putting tha...
by balbrec2
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment accounts for teens to control
Replies: 25
Views: 1398

Re: Investment accounts for teens to control

Maybe the best educational gift you can give them is the
link to this forum, or maybe one of several books recommended
here. Really this is no different than science class. First the book,
then the lab, review the results, learn the lesson.
by balbrec2
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High cash percentage in Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund?
Replies: 2
Views: 632

Re: High cash percentage in Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund?

That fund(index) is currently trending down so it wouldn't shock me to see a little bit
higher liquidity for anticipated redemptions (investor panic). Not everyone is a Boglehead.
by balbrec2
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the historical real return of total bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1466

Re: what is the historical real return of total bond?

After taxes your real return is actually much closer to 0%
by balbrec2
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 12694

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

MinhN wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:57 am
There may be a point when the US can no longer ask the world to pay for its excesses. My outlook on US debt is not positive.
The US dollar's status as the worlds reserve currency would have to
go away before I see that happening. Not that it couldn't happen!!
by balbrec2
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1041

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

Two weeks ago, a Forum member asked for some historical research to test his intriguing question: In the past, has an investor with a 70/30 portfolio as their standard asset allocation, who for an 18 month duration shifts their portfolio to 30/70 whenever the yield curve inverts, ended up with a be...
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 27
Views: 2433

Re: Martket Timing - A fool's game?

Actually, the best market timers use things like moving averages rather than pure guess work. Some use other various technical indicators. If you want to spend all of your time trying to outsmart the market, go ahead. I prefer to buy and hold, rebalance yearly, go live my life! The results will be a...
by balbrec2
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Run your retirement like an insurance company: liability matching
Replies: 13
Views: 1880

Re: Run your retirement like an insurance company: liability matching

The difference is that the insurance company knows their liabilities pretty accurate. You take 10k 65 year olds and the average age of death will be in about 20 years+-a year or two depending on population biases. Me on the other hand don't know if I am going to live 1 year or 35. Pretty hard to ma...
by balbrec2
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5374

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

Don't forget the fact that nobody knows anything.
These are prognostications, opinions, guesses.
Within a certain range, one is as valid as another.
by balbrec2
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5374

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

Nominal for US equities -2%. US bonds, 3%. International equities may perform somewhat better as the are undervalued relative to the domestic market. You should have some of each according to your AA. We may likely be entering another decade of flat returns. I wouldn't discount cash as a reasonable ...
by balbrec2
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 53
Views: 5991

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

You say you bought last year? From a year ago VNQ has recovered its losses and now appears to be in an up trend for however long. If you are going to sell do it now, otherwise hold on for the long haul. If you find yourself questioning a 5% holding maybe you should revisit your overall AA. Are you t...
by balbrec2
Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13186

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

I read the other day that Warren Buffett is expecting average annual returns of 7% for US stocks going forward, down from 10%. presumably he knows what he’s talking about. Chuck in some bonds as well and obviously it will be lower. Where does Mr. Buffet buy his magic eight ball? Not according to th...
by balbrec2
Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How risky is currency risk in international investing?
Replies: 10
Views: 990

Re: How risky is currency risk in international investing?

Unknowable in any certain terms. This will all depend on the FOREX mkts.
At times it may be beneficial and at other times it may be detrimental.
That's on top of the equity market fluctuation. You can try to follow trends.
I just hold an international index fund and call it good.
best of luck!
by balbrec2
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4954

Re: yield curve inversion

I think we can look at an inverted yield curve as a heads up.
Something is askew, but exactly what or when remains to be seen.
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advocating to not index
Replies: 28
Views: 3584

Re: Advocating to not index

I frequently have people ask me for Financial advice related to Investing, I explain the concept of Index investing, More often than not the advice falls on deaf ears. I am loath to give investing advice to anyone other than to use a TDF. In addition to getting me off the hook for bad advice, It is...
by balbrec2
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 185
Views: 19845

Re: Retirement strategy?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/retirement/the-single-most-important-retirement-strategy/ar-AAz8Q93?li=BBnbfcN Thoughts? I have two thoughts. :twisted: The first one is this post violates forum policies: We also require that you be considerate of our readers and: refrain from posting naked links - ...
by balbrec2
Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 185
Views: 19845

Retirement strategy?

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/retirem ... li=BBnbfcN
Thoughts?
by balbrec2
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do beneficiaries get paid?
Replies: 5
Views: 980

Re: How do beneficiaries get paid?

Why do you not have a will?
by balbrec2
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10765

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

The kind of RE investing the OP asks about, is a job as well as an investment.
Unless you want a part time job (could be more than that) put (some of) your money in REITs
if you feel the need to invest in real estate.
by balbrec2
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the first 100k really the hardest?
Replies: 156
Views: 44442

Re: Is the first 100k really the hardest?

Not sure what you mean by hardest or easier. What I do know is that when your
portfolio reaches a size where internal growth exceeds external growth, you will find
out the real power of compounding.
by balbrec2
Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we need 529?
Replies: 42
Views: 4405

Re: Why do we need 529?

The 529 offers modest tax advantages not found in a Roth.
There are pros and cons to each, you must decide what fits your situation best.
by balbrec2
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why market drop when Fed announced rate increase?
Replies: 19
Views: 2675

Re: Why market drop when Fed announced rate increase?

goblue100 wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:20 pm
As bond yields rise, stocks become less attractive.
The bond market and the fed are not the same thing
by balbrec2
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 65
Views: 8118

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

https://www.starcapital.de/fileadmin/user_upload/files/publikationen/Research_2016-01_Predicting_Stock_Market_Returns_Shiller_CAPE_Keimling.pdf See Fig. 6. When CAPE less than 10, historical real returns over the next 10-15 years have been a minimum of 5%. When CAPE greater than 50, returns have be...
by balbrec2
Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 185
Views: 19845

Re: The Power of Working Longer

There might be power in this view, but not much sense unless you needed that money. At some point it is not about the money anymore, it is about the time. You can never get that back or save it. A cliche, but true. You make your choices, money or time. It is a frequent discussion here and one half ...
by balbrec2
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation 53 years old
Replies: 21
Views: 1898

Re: Asset Allocation 53 years old

For those if us who can handle (from a behavior standpoint) higher stock allocations, I like Kitces’ “Bond Tent” to explain why I need a bond allocation (I was 100% stocks into my mid-50s). I knew I needed them (sequence of returns risk, portfolio size effect) but I struggled to visualize things un...
by balbrec2
Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with my options for 401K: Pick low ER target date fund or 3 fund?
Replies: 4
Views: 376

Re: Help with my options for 401K: Pick low ER target date fund or 3 fund?

Although the ER is a tad higher, you cant get more hands off than a target date fund as a retirement vehicle. It is the ultimate set it and forget investment. It will automatically add bonds as warranted by your proximity to retirement. For most people this is the best choice IMO. If you like to tin...
by balbrec2
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do average kids from upper middle class families get any free college money (Scholarships / non-repayable grants etc)
Replies: 266
Views: 19138

Re: Do average kids from upper middle class families get any free college money (Scholarships / non-repayable grants etc

Depending on where you are applying, average students likely will receive no free money. Scholarships are given based on high achievement for well rounded students. Your socio-economic status precludes need based funding as well. If you apply where average stands out you may have a chance. Otherwise...
by balbrec2
Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a physician work in tech while practicing as well?
Replies: 57
Views: 4245

Re: Can a physician work in tech while practicing as well?

I would want a doctor who is focused on medicine and/or research in the medical field.
If I found out my Doc had his hands in so many pies, I would question his/her desire to
be the best doctor possible. I would probably find a new doctor. just sayin!