Search found 275 matches

by balbrec2
Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing vs working
Replies: 67
Views: 5240

Re: Investing vs working

I’ve been thinking of some divide between an investor class and a working class. Those whose assets accrue wealth compared to those who only labor for their money. It made me think, will a diligent investor make more on their assets than they will on their labor over the course of a lifetime? I wou...
by balbrec2
Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate
Replies: 24
Views: 2040

Re: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate

Does anyone believe that since the Dow and SP500 are roughly flat to down year over year and 2 years the SWR or SAWR could be more than the previous rough consensus 3-3.5% SWR? What's your budget? What are your assets? how old are you? How much do you really need to meet your expenses? what other i...
by balbrec2
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 1770

Re: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?

Is it useful to look at the historical behavior of the stock markets of other countries for clues how the S&P could potentially act in the future? Or is the U.S. stock market so fundamentally different from the others that it would be like comparing apples to oranges? The reason I ask this is becau...
by balbrec2
Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor
Replies: 143
Views: 13643

Re: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor

I agree with number two, but for different reasons. International stocks have been a horrible investment. I stick with a two-fund portfolio, and avoid international stocks like the plague. What will you do if international starts to outperform U.S. over the next 12, 36, or 60 months? I've noticed t...
by balbrec2
Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 195
Views: 16939

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Corporate bonds do carry more risk, but can give better returns. Certainly, but the stocks that most investors have in their portfolio already carry equity risk. I see no need to add equity risk to one's fixed income holdings if one already owns stocks. It is not a matter of "need" to add risk, thi...
by balbrec2
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Vanguard’s Target Date Series added just one more fund, it would be perfect
Replies: 11
Views: 1667

Re: If Vanguard’s Target Date Series added just one more fund, it would be perfect

(My question is at the bottom) I have just finished re-reading the Bogleheads Guide to Investing (2nd edition) and the authors did a wonderful job outlining the value of including a TIPS fund. In fact, in their sample portfolios, their recommendation is that 50% of the fixed income allocation could...
by balbrec2
Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: After Tax Retirement Income Calculation
Replies: 9
Views: 917

Re: After Tax Retirement Income Calculation

I recently found a federal tax calculator online that allowed me to plug in all my projected retirement income numbers. Looking ahead a year or so I entered 58K in Social Security for DW and me and 80K in IRA withdrawals (4% SWR) for a total of 138K. Could you please share the link? This is an exce...
by balbrec2
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing sequence of returns risk
Replies: 53
Views: 2993

Re: Managing sequence of returns risk

It's been interesting to learn more about sequence of returns. Since much of it is based on "luck" with market returns, what are the common ways to manage this risk? perhaps this will help https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-sequence-of-return-risk-with-bucket-strategies-vs-a-total-return-rebalanc...
by balbrec2
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing sequence of returns risk
Replies: 53
Views: 2993

Re: Managing sequence of returns risk

Just thought I'd mention it in case someone was wondering, and someone
usually is.
No doubt there is more than a lot to be said for SWAN
by balbrec2
Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing sequence of returns risk
Replies: 53
Views: 2993

Re: Managing sequence of returns risk

OP, The solution is simple. Keep X years of expense in CASH. Then, your annual withdrawal does not have to match your annual expense. This is also a great strategy for tax management. KlangFool In a recent podcast, Michael Kitces mentioned that the math works out to show that the cash portion becom...
by balbrec2
Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with a small amount of cash you will need in the unknown but near future?
Replies: 6
Views: 783

Re: What to do with a small amount of cash you will need in the unknown but near future?

We don't consider it illogical at all for a retiree to have a 60/40 AA and to make periodic withdrawals from it (that's actually very typical), so I don't see why it has to be any different in this instance, especially since remodels can be delayed if needed. On a closely related topic, I suspect t...
by balbrec2
Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1619
Views: 410617

Re: Share your story of how you got wealthy

Would never claim I was wealthy but I suggest 1) marry the right partner 2) Live in the same house for 34 years 3) work very hard at your profession 4) live below your means and save prodigiously 5) never listen to or pay a dime to a broker or other thief +1. This I get. Sharing other information s...
by balbrec2
Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to approach a friend: a first time investor bought a single stock
Replies: 43
Views: 3112

Re: How to approach a friend: a first time investor bought a single stock

Hello, maybe you could point me in a right direction. A friend of mine asked me an investment advice. Before that he attended a seminar about passive investing in his workplace and wanted to know more. I introduced him to bogleheads investment philosophy and many times emphasized the importance to ...
by balbrec2
Wed May 13, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 9269

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

This past week has taught me the importance of a cash reserve. You might be looking at the need for an emergency fund through too narrow of a lens. A cash reserve is not just in case of a layoff during a market selloff/recession. It's also valuable insurance, for example, in the event of a car cras...
by balbrec2
Tue May 12, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age do you use for retirement end date?
Replies: 68
Views: 4286

Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

I use 90 based on several life expectancy calculators plus 10% as insurance.
by balbrec2
Sat May 09, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3574

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

Candor wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 9:47 am
50/50 for a perpetual state of disappointment yet mild satisfaction.
+1 I like the way you stated that!
by balbrec2
Thu May 07, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keep debit card locked at all times?
Replies: 36
Views: 2775

Re: Keep debit card locked at all times?

At the weekend a charge was made on my Chase debit card at a Chipotle restaurant in Newport Beach, California. It clearly wasn’t me as I live several time zones away and staying home due to Covid 19! Chase are making me jump through hoops to dispute the charge. After calling and waiting on hold ove...
by balbrec2
Thu May 07, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rather new to investing and have 100k to play with
Replies: 13
Views: 759

Re: Rather new to investing and have 100k to play with

Brianmcg321 wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 6:51 am
Good luck.
If you don't know who you are, the stock market is an expensive place to find out.
by balbrec2
Fri May 01, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.
Replies: 25
Views: 2495

Re: Even if today was not Friday, it would not be a bona fide RBD.

livesoft wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 12:03 pm
Strange as it seems, today is not a bona fide RBD. Not only is today a Friday, but also various ETFs have not dropped enough to qualify.
Volatility is usually higher when the market trades below the 200dma. This is to be expected IMO.
by balbrec2
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t this the Ultimate Expression of Uncertainty?
Replies: 13
Views: 1108

Re: Isn’t this the Ultimate Expression of Uncertainty?

The market hates uncertainty. As we roll through earnings season, some are beating and some are missing. But most aren’t issuing any forward guidance. Doesn’t that say it all in terms of the magnitude of uncertainty? It’s almost like they’re trying to hide something. Other than it perhaps being mor...
by balbrec2
Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 Years Old Trying to Build a Lazy Portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2402

Re: 25 Years Old Trying to Build a Lazy Portfolio

Hello, I recently accepted a new job with an organization that provides Fidelity Simple IRAs with a 3% match. The Simple IRA is only compatible with certain funds, listed https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/ira-funds-by-family?fundFamily=Fidelity+Investments . I am trying to construct a ...
by balbrec2
Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"
Replies: 121
Views: 5139

Re: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"

I would not. If "the worst" were to happen, what exactly does gold do for you? You can't eat it. It doesn't grow anything. Who would want it? doomsday as far as preserving your portfolio (good luck)or doomsday as in having something of value for survival spending? I don't think anything will suffic...
by balbrec2
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107748

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investment...
by balbrec2
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges
Replies: 43
Views: 4548

Re: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges

I guess the problem is index investing/ bh strategy relies on you being consistently employed throughout your working life, but the times when you are most likely to lose your job/ business etc is when the market is also down like now for example, so for the suggestions for 100% equities portfolios...
by balbrec2
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another 15 vs. 30 year mortgage toss up
Replies: 59
Views: 3968

Re: Another 15 vs. 30 year mortgage toss up

If it fits you financial situation,
Borrow the least amount at the lowest rate for the shortest term possible.
You'll come out way ahead in the long term.
by balbrec2
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market
Replies: 76
Views: 3691

Re: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market

Main Question: How you do talk sense into a person that believes they are "making money" when they are not beating the market? Background: I had a frustrating conversation with a friend recently. (This was before the volatility that Coronavirus brought.) He told me he was actively trading stocks an...
by balbrec2
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Exit Interview
Replies: 78
Views: 5957

Re: Exit Interview

Be better, just walk away!
by balbrec2
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC for emergency
Replies: 26
Views: 1528

Re: HELOC for emergency

Shortly after I bought my home ten years ago with cash I took out a HELOC for $100,000. My thinking was the same reasons you mentioned. For years it just sat there at no cost to me. This past winter I moved $10,000 over into my checking account to temporally help cover the costs of a kitchen remode...
by balbrec2
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Covid19 resistant job
Replies: 154
Views: 9840

Re: Best Covid19 resistant job

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:21 pm
I have a nephew who works for the USPS. His job is probably about as secure as they come.
In light of recent events/statements made by certain officials,
I wouldn't be so sure about this.
by balbrec2
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm a little bit lost [keep American Funds?]
Replies: 16
Views: 1231

Re: I'm a little bit lost

You might get more response if you repost, substituting the fund names in for/with the fund symbols.
By using the symbols you are asking everyone to look things up.
by balbrec2
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 1846

Re: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds

It's beyond me why anyone would want to lock up capital for 30yrs at 1.2% The long term TIPS idea is a viable one but regular treasuries? Over 30yrs the stock mkt will surely do better. If you say you will sell them if rates go down then it is more of a speculation than an investment. If rates go up...
by balbrec2
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security and AA
Replies: 7
Views: 506

Re: Social Security and AA

David Jay wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:39 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:42 pm
I consider both social security and a small pension I'll receive as uncounted in my AA. How I account for them is by subtracting them from my spending. So they help when calculating my "times spending" that I have available, but don't affect what stock/bond amounts I hold.
^ ^ ^ This
+2
by balbrec2
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is deflation good or bad for the S&P 500?
Replies: 24
Views: 2495

Re: Is deflation good or bad for the S&P 500?

You don't need to have an "opinion" or believe the deflation is "coming"... it's here. Deflation means a decline in "business", productivity, growth in general. It's not only a lack of demand for money, but the things we exchange money for (including taxes so it's bad for government in that regard ...
by balbrec2
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What single individual stock would you buy?
Replies: 133
Views: 10301

Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

JNJ for the long term
by balbrec2
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32642

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

No idea where this is going. Have a reactionary plan for whatever happens.
Making changes based on what might or should happen is often counter productive.
Remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
by balbrec2
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What's your asset allocation strategy if you don't re-balance?
Replies: 19
Views: 1264

Re: What's your asset allocation strategy if you don't re-balance?

Rebalancing was meant to be risk management tool. IF, there is any enhancement
to returns, it is a bonus. Don't rebalance for the wrong reason.
by balbrec2
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I get a credit card? Which?
Replies: 21
Views: 1239

Re: Should I get a credit card? Which?

Propel is a very good no fee card. Amex acceptance is really only a problem overseas.
by balbrec2
Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulated market timing anomoly
Replies: 3
Views: 391

Re: Simulated market timing anomoly

If I were to try to time the market (I'm Not) I would keep it simple.
I'd use the 200 day EMA on the first trading day of every month. Equities when above
bonds or cash when below. Simple. This won't usually beat the mkt but it can smooth things
out, giving lower drawdowns. Good Luck.
by balbrec2
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Retirement Calculator? - Testing if I have enough to retire?
Replies: 26
Views: 1949

Re: Best Retirement Calculator? - Testing if I have enough to retire?

Hey guys, Interested what you think the best retirement calculators are? I am think just about there but want to be 100% sure as it would be terrible to prematurely retire only to discover, that I needed to work a few more years. Here are the calculators I have tried: 1) Personal Capital - I really...
by balbrec2
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio how does it hold up in a recession?
Replies: 17
Views: 1584

Re: 3 fund portfolio how does it hold up in a recession?

70/30 hurts as much and 100/0 but the key is who sill stay the course without running for the hills. I am 96%(INT/US) equities+ 4% cash and it hurts but no panicking because is my third rodeo so I am used to it and been buying a lot more on last couple dips. 96/4 doesn't give you very rebalance lev...
by balbrec2
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much cash do you keep at home?
Replies: 130
Views: 8724

Re: how much cash do you keep at home?

Curious. How much cash do you keep at home? I was listening to a normally entertaining podcast and I was shocked that the host was seriously suggesting burying cash in the backyard to hedge against mass bank failures. (Some of you may remember Washington Mutual from 2009.) I think most people here ...
by balbrec2
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible
Replies: 162
Views: 11715

Re: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible

Thru all this craziness got me thinking about my mortgage. The thought it to always keep the mortgage owed as close to the value of the home as long as interest rates are low. My rational is that if you have a ton of equity and heaven forbid something happens where you can't make payments, the bank...
by balbrec2
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9474

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

63 yrs
44 stocks
44 bonds
12 cash
rebalanced yesterday, now wait and see!
by balbrec2
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 52730

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

How is your job being impacted by the coronavirus and the falling market? My spouse is saying that they are pushing for 20% reduction in hours (off once a week) for workers. Are similar cuts coming to your industry? Clinical Diagnostics manufacturing. essential personnel 24/7. All others work from ...
by balbrec2
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you invest your HELOC in the market?
Replies: 57
Views: 1956

Re: Would you invest your HELOC in the market?

I believe most HELOCs have a provision where the bank or CU can call the loan in (not sure of the correct terminology) whether or not you want to pay it off. I think a number of banks did this during the 2008-2009 recession. If you invested the $200K in the market AND the market kept heading down (...
by balbrec2
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it Possible the Market Closes Permanently
Replies: 43
Views: 4309

Re: Is it Possible the Market Closes Permanently

Is it possible they shut down the stock markets permanently for an extended period of time (days, weeks, months) or will they let things go as low as it needs to? I see these limits down each day and trading halting so it makes me curious if they just shut things down for a while? I hope not as I a...
by balbrec2
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?
Replies: 100
Views: 10126

Re: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?

bo105954027 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:32 am
I am. I just raised my 401k contribution to Max. Each of my next ten bi-weekly payrolls will contribute $1000 to VTSAX.

Buy the fear, sell the greedy! :twisted:
If your AA is appropriate then you may have a rebalancing opportunity but nothing
that I would call excitement.
by balbrec2
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I once held a stock that went to zero
Replies: 24
Views: 2214

Re: I once held a stock that went to zero

An individual stock could go to zero. The stock market, is extremely unlikely
to go to zero. If it were to do that you will have much more important problems
to tend to, than the stock mkt. have a good day!
by balbrec2
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 25244

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

Moving from stocks as they approach oversold territory and into bonds as they are in overbought territory
doesn't sound like very good investment plan. You need an AA you can live with through good times and bad.
Then other than annual rebalancing leave it alone.
by balbrec2
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people still try to time the market?
Replies: 72
Views: 5455

Re: Why do people still try to time the market?

Because either they think they are smarter than they really are or, on its face it seems so easy
to do until emotions get in the way and makes you do something stupid.