Search found 119 matches

by balbrec2
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 145
Views: 12670

Re: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]

Excitement is not mentioned anywhere in my investing plan
by balbrec2
Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2089

Re: Current Market Volatility

My asset allocation reflects my need, ability, and willingness to take risk, including during periods of heightened market volatility (and this ain't nothin'). I already adjusted. PJW What if market volatility changed permanently ? Wouldn't you reanalyze your AA ? Volatility changed permanently? Wh...
by balbrec2
Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawals
Replies: 11
Views: 1027

Re: Withdrawals

Why pretend there is no cash position? Make your yearly withdrawal amount part of your asset allocation and just rebalance the whole thing every year. Or carry a large enough cash position to carry you through several down years in the market. I know many here will say cash is a drag on a portfolio ...
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article: asset returns in 2018
Replies: 2
Views: 1042

Re: Bloomberg article: asset returns in 2018

Every once in a while, cash is king!
Usually not for very long.
Anything that puts money in your pocket can be considered an asset.
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is today a bad time to rebalance?
Replies: 18
Views: 2251

Re: Is today a bad time to rebalance?

If your desired AA is 80/20 then you should rebalance without hesitation. You are currently 94/6 and taking much more risk than should. Trying to find the optimal time to rebalance is akin to market timing. Rebalancing is a risk management tool, if it gives any boost at all to returns that is just g...
by balbrec2
Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a "Larry" portfolio work in the current interest rate environment?
Replies: 23
Views: 2046

Re: Does a "Larry" portfolio work in the current interest rate environment?

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:23 pm
I don’t know how to get 8% from anything right now. Everything is really expensive. Less expensive than it was earlier in the year, but still expensive.
The only thing you can guarantee 8% with now is to let
your SS grow until you're 70 yrs old.
by balbrec2
Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Need to Adjust the Porfolio Mix?
Replies: 7
Views: 343

Re: Should We Need to Adjust the Porfolio Mix?

If you are panicking then your AA is not correct for you. What may have looked great in a bull mkt may not look so great when things go south. Come up with an AA that lets you sleep at night. There are many online calculators that will get you in the ball park. You can always model after a TDF suita...
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I expect 4 funds to perform better than 2 funds?
Replies: 11
Views: 1570

Re: Should I expect 4 funds to perform better than 2 funds?

Thankyou all for those explanations. Asset-chaos, your explanation is very helpful. Here is what I am taking home from this discussion: 1. Periodic rebalancing boosts return in some situations, but not all 2. Chasing better returns by having more asset classes, solely in order to gain a rebalancing...
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 57
Views: 7820

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

Recency bias. Many investors expect that what has been happening, to
continue to happen. Sometimes it does.
by balbrec2
Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 60
Views: 14340

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

Just because you can, doesn't mean you should!
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feedback on "auto pilot" strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 819

Re: Feedback on "auto pilot" strategy

But it won't. Over rebalancing is counterproductive!
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8812
Views: 1692664

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Its just business as usual. Mr. Market trying to find his way to where he wants to be!
by balbrec2
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Handling and stretching an IRA through TWO trusts?
Replies: 7
Views: 823

Re: Handling and stretching an IRA through TWO trusts?

What does the trust attorney suggest? They normally help the trustee through
any settlement process. They shouldn't offer financial advice, only legal.
by balbrec2
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10744

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

I have a strong fundamental belief that no one, no formula, and no method can reliably and consistently predict the market's future: when bubbles will actually form or burst, or any other major market moves. There are too many variables in behavioral herd psychology/investor sentiment which interpl...
by balbrec2
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10744

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 am
Feel free to do so. Come back in ten or twenty years ears and let us know how you did.
+1
I'm all for it, Steve. Good luck to you!
I however will stick to a reasonable AA, then I will
Review
Rebalance
Repeat
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule
Replies: 66
Views: 4453

Re: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule

Isn’t the idea that you’d continue with the 40k + inflation adjustment forever for a 1 mil portfolio because the good times balance out the bad over a multi decade retirement? It would be hard to stick to this if portfolio started running down or up significantly however. Or, using a constant perce...
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule
Replies: 66
Views: 4453

Re: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule

Isn’t the idea that you’d continue with the 40k + inflation adjustment forever for a 1 mil portfolio because the good times balance out the bad over a multi decade retirement? It would be hard to stick to this if portfolio started running down or up significantly however. Or, using a constant perce...
by balbrec2
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule
Replies: 66
Views: 4453

Re: Question on the 4% withdrawal rule

Isn’t the idea that you’d continue with the 40k + inflation adjustment forever for a 1 mil portfolio because the good times balance out the bad over a multi decade retirement? It would be hard to stick to this if portfolio started running down or up significantly however. Or, using a constant perce...
by balbrec2
Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Performance
Replies: 9
Views: 797

Re: Market Performance

Anyone that thinks recent market action is a slaughter, should
probably not venture beyond FDIC products, just sayin!
by balbrec2
Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8239

Re: What's everyone currently in?

Flyer24 wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:37 pm
I have not changed a thing. I only adjust my allocation target on my birthday to gradually get more conservative.
smart thinking, right there!
by balbrec2
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Changing to higher equities allocation during a major crash?
Replies: 26
Views: 2635

Re: Changing to higher equities allocation during a major crash?

Stick to your plan (hopefully you have one) review rebalance repeat Rebalancing according to set rules such as on a calendar schedule or percentage change in AA is really all you should need to do . Anything else is market timing, which is much harder to get right. Stick with proven methods cheers :...
by balbrec2
Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing
Replies: 40
Views: 7802

Re: Jason Hsu and William Bernstein Like Overbalancing

http://news.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=768821 Hsu: "take money away from what's done really well and become expensive and then move money into what's done poorly...So if you do this, you know, a systematic rebalancing, or maybe do a little bit more, a systematic over-rebalancing, you...
by balbrec2
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing mortgage pay down
Replies: 49
Views: 3997

Re: Timing mortgage pay down

OP, It is very simple. Mortgage interest rate = X. Market return = Y. If Y > X, investing win. If X > Y, pay extra win. It has nothing to do with timing. If you have $500 extra, mortgage interest = 3% and market return = 7%, investing the $500 always win since 7% is greater than 3%. KlangFool P.S.:...
by balbrec2
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kidnapping and Ransom in Bitcoins
Replies: 4
Views: 1099

Re: Kidnapping and Ransom in Bitcoins

This is a criminal matter not a financial one, seriously, talk to the FBI if this is a domestic kidnapping.
by balbrec2
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 915

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

Defined contribution plans are not normally referred to as pensions but rather what ever
IRS code they are known by, 401k, 403b, various IRA's. I just want to eliminate any confusion
for anyone else reading this thread.
best regards :happy
by balbrec2
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 915

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

This is the first I have ever heard of a pension (defined benefit plan) that could be managed
by the person to whom the pension is due.
by balbrec2
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighbor discussing finances with me
Replies: 64
Views: 6126

Re: Neighbor discussing finances with me

Just because he is sharing his finances with you doesn't mean you should offer advice.
He has an advisor ( however good or bad). Stay out of it and stay friends.
by balbrec2
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Education Savings Account
Replies: 6
Views: 561

Re: Education Savings Account

Any money that you are definitely counting on during the next 5 years should not be at risk.
Stick to CD's, money market or ultra short term bond funds
by balbrec2
Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keep a backup hot water heater?
Replies: 104
Views: 5710

Re: Keep a backup hot water heater?

Probably more important to keep a spare sump pump if your dwelling has one and runs regularly
by balbrec2
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4635

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

Within the realm of equity investing , yes!
Consider that some of the best run, most profitable companies in the
world are located outside the US. Why would you not want to own them?
As part of a total AA, not so much! Still I want to own some internationals.
by balbrec2
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6746

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

If you have to cut and run, your AA is likely too aggressive.
by balbrec2
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?
Replies: 28
Views: 2347

Re: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?

I've always subscribed to the theory that any money you know you'll need with the next 5 years should not be in equities or even long term bonds. Especially in today's environment, I would stick to short bonds, money market or CD's. Also as an aside, never sacrifice your retirement money in favor of...
by balbrec2
Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Think it's time for a HELOC
Replies: 5
Views: 792

Re: Think it's time for a HELOC

One additional item to consider with a Line fo Credit is if the line is secured with your home or unsecured. A unsecured line will have a higher interest rate but will not increase the risk to your home. The fact that its a HELOC means it is secured by the Home. Otherwise it would just be a persona...
by balbrec2
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 153
Views: 12531

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

goodenyou wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:46 pm
What's in Your Safe?
Gold is non productive asset as is silver. They are insurance against calamity.
I keep $1K in silver half dollars in my safe as well as a similar amount of cash in 20 dollar notes.
That's as far as I will invest in precious metals.
by balbrec2
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 107
Views: 16726

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jack-bogle-envisions-chaos-catastrophe-markets-everyone-indexed-194610197.html “If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe,” said Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on Saturday. “There would be no tra...
by balbrec2
Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 15094

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

U.S. stocks are nuts. Shiller CAPE now stands at 33.36 and the only time in history it was higher was Feb, 1998 to Mar 2001 which would have been a wild ride. If you had gotten out of stocks in Feb 1998 you could have stayed out for 12 years and gotten back in at the price you sold, meanwhile makin...
by balbrec2
Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 289
Views: 45097

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

For most people, I believe it is wise to never be all in, or all out.
Just sayin!
by balbrec2
Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9519

Re: Call the Top!

Exercise in futility. Anyone can get lucky!
by balbrec2
Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which bond asset class best protects against stock market crash?
Replies: 9
Views: 1192

Re: Which bond asset class best protects against stock market crash?

60/40 AA is a poor one for someone trying to utilize a bond tent unless they desire to end up at 80/20 or higher. I would fully expect someone wishing to utilize a bond tent strategy to be more along the lines of 40/60 or even 30/70 AA, just prior to retirement. An intermediate Treasury fund is all ...
by balbrec2
Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2342
Views: 1473576

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I was disappointed it did not have a comprehensive historic return grid for a Vanguard 3 fund portfolio at 10%, 20%, & 30% stock/bond split for Vanguard shares. SWBoarder: I do not like using past returns because past performance does not forecast future performance. Nevertheless, you can see past ...
by balbrec2
Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High expense ratio worth it/Portfolio review
Replies: 48
Views: 3741

Re: High expense ratio worth it/Portfolio review

Hey everyone, first time poster here, long time lurker on the forums. I had a question about our current investment strategy that wanted to get your opinion on. Some background, I am 33, married, no kids. I have an individual IRA that has rollovers from previous employment, a SEP IRA that I am curr...
by balbrec2
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: How to add $340,000 to retirement savings
Replies: 77
Views: 11255

Re: Retirees: How to add $340,000 to retirement savings

Scott Burns reports a simple way for some retirees to add the equivalent of $340,000 to their retirement savings - become a renter: In my new book with economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff (“The Clash of Generations,” MIT Press) we show that a retiring middle income couple can have lifetime discretionar...
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 5045

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

Doom Lol... Doom is between the ears if you allow it in. Keep Investing, :happy If you are in retirement keeping enough in stable assets to carry you through 3 years or so you will be fine. Let your stocks ride the waves. If you are not in retirement or at least five years away it's all a moot poin...
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 5045

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

bengal22 wrote:
Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:56 am
For a forum that advocates against market timing this article is a big nothing burger. Yes at some point market will go down.
And when it does, you rebalance as required. EOS
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Difficulties Of Discipline
Replies: 12
Views: 1530

Re: Larry Swedroe: Difficulties Of Discipline

Dottie57 wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:21 pm
The most important discipline is to keep investing in bad and good markets. It needs to be a steady drum beat.
Make a plan that you can be comfortable with in bad times and also serves your needs over time.
by balbrec2
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the money going?
Replies: 21
Views: 2999

Re: Where is the money going?

I am a student of all this but with all students I am always learning. Especially with past performance never equally future results. S0......With the FAANGs and tech dropping I have been watching curiously where that money would go to. If people are selling off one thing where are they putting tha...
by balbrec2
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment accounts for teens to control
Replies: 25
Views: 1458

Re: Investment accounts for teens to control

Maybe the best educational gift you can give them is the
link to this forum, or maybe one of several books recommended
here. Really this is no different than science class. First the book,
then the lab, review the results, learn the lesson.
by balbrec2
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High cash percentage in Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund?
Replies: 2
Views: 657

Re: High cash percentage in Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund?

That fund(index) is currently trending down so it wouldn't shock me to see a little bit
higher liquidity for anticipated redemptions (investor panic). Not everyone is a Boglehead.
by balbrec2
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the historical real return of total bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1595

Re: what is the historical real return of total bond?

After taxes your real return is actually much closer to 0%