Search found 220 matches

by almostretired1965
Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 32
Views: 1908

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

So the way I would frame this question is whether there is a plausible scenario where Tesla will at some point, say five to ten years down the road, become the most profitable car company in the world on an ongoing basis. (I'm deliberately discounting the ancillary businesses they are in since it is...
by almostretired1965
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for cell phone for elderly person
Replies: 21
Views: 913

Re: Looking for cell phone for elderly person

Something worth looking into is setting up a simple launcher on an Android phone. I just did that for my mother using Tracfone. There was a deal on ebay for a Motor E5 bundle with 1 year of service and 1500min/text/mb for $40. She does not text nor use data so this has worked out great. Standard And...
by almostretired1965
Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 49
Views: 2357

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

Bogleheads may not be the best place to get college advice. You might get more useful information from CollegeConfidential or Reddit. I have serious problems with the Dale-Krueger study. To start with, it included 22 private colleges, 3 public colleges, and 2 HBCUs. This is a very non-representativ...
by almostretired1965
Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 30 YO Roth IRA advice!
Replies: 6
Views: 436

Re: 30 YO Roth IRA advice!

I think your choice is definitely defensible, except as others have noted, I would bias in favor of US and have it more like 75/25 rather than 50/50. The other thing I think you should investigate is the value of long term treasuries as a ballast to an otherwise very aggressive portfolio. There are ...
by almostretired1965
Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with a lump sum right now?
Replies: 11
Views: 887

Re: What to do with a lump sum right now?

Sounds to me like you don't actually have a desired AA or have not really thought about it. Either that or it's 100/0. If that is the case, then I would figure that out first. If you do have a AA, then in my opinion, the right approach is: 1. Make sure your emergency fund is in good shape. This can ...
by almostretired1965
Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 446
Views: 24337

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

It's a lot cheaper than what your budget will allow, but if I was looking for a new vehicle "for fun" right now, I would be signing up for Tesla Model Y.

Article about it in WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-teslas- ... 1591365620

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by almostretired1965
Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I got a defective product on ebay. The seller gave me a refund. Do I need to ship the product back to him?
Replies: 24
Views: 1596

Re: I got a defective product on ebay. The seller gave me a refund. Do I need to ship the product back to him?

Since it is defective on receipt, he should have offered to pay for return shipping if that was desired. If he has not made a request by now, my guess is that he is not interested in getting it back.

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by almostretired1965
Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?
Replies: 238
Views: 20668

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

So let me play Nostradamus for a bit. My thoughts are that the current situation in the US represents the following market consensus: 1. We have learned enough about how this virus spreads so that most of the economy (except parts that rely on events where large crowds shouting at each other indoors...
by almostretired1965
Sun May 31, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 10285

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

I know two IT workers who became school bus drivers after being laid off in their 50s. In normal times at least around here they are always looking for school bus drivers since it does not pay enough for someone who needs full time work. It did not pay a lot but it comes with benefits and they got ...
by almostretired1965
Wed May 27, 2020 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 12129

Re: This article is scaring me.

He is not known as Dr. Doom for no reason!

Keep in mind, however, that Roubini is the charter member of the club of economists that have predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions.....
by almostretired1965
Tue May 26, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: HBO Max
Replies: 38
Views: 2967

Re: HBO Max

I signed up for the $12 deal and will probably keep it until we run out of stuff to watch. I will be honest since I do not feel the need to watch anything the minute it is available, my strategy is to subscribe to one and only one at a time. We have switched back and forth between HBO, Netflix, and ...
by almostretired1965
Tue May 26, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any retirees get through Covid crisis without large cash reserve?
Replies: 63
Views: 4489

Re: Any retirees get through Covid crisis without large cash reserve?

The main purpose of an emergency fund/cash reserve is to protect you against an unanticipated, large drop in current income. For most families this is typically associated with either a serious illness (particularly when coupled with inadequate insurance) and/or lost of employment. If you are retire...
by almostretired1965
Tue May 26, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflationary effects pending?
Replies: 40
Views: 3333

Re: Inflationary effects pending?

All you have to do is look at Japan for the last 30 years to understand that relationship between budget deficits/debt levels on the one hand and price inflation/sustainability on the other is very complicated. If a country is able to borrow against its own currency, it has a lot more latitude than ...
by almostretired1965
Mon May 25, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 73
Views: 6716

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

I have two possible suggestions for you. 1. Put it in a target date retirement fund and stop looking at the size of the portfolio every day. or 2. Go with a good balanced fund like Wellesley and/or Wellington depending on your desired risk tolerance. Some combination of the two will work for anythin...
by almostretired1965
Sat May 23, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 370
Views: 31146

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

My condolences as well, but as others have noted, OP is probably in better shape than 90% of the households in his situation (late 50s facing imminent layoff). I will say that I was in a similar position a couple of years ago, when a series of lifestyle decisions we made came back to haunt me when I...
by almostretired1965
Sun May 10, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3074
Views: 536132

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

How are you guys doing so much better than market averages? Is it individual stocks (idiosyncratic risk) or did you guys time your new money contributions perfectly in late March? I am down somewhere between 10% and 13%. Not looking closely. Vanguard Total stock market is down 13.32% YTD which is m...
by almostretired1965
Sat May 09, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: College age kid wrecked his car...
Replies: 113
Views: 6218

Re: College age kid wrecked his car...

Unless it was a VERY unusual accident, and he intentionally sought out a deer to hit - NO, the deer wrecked his car, not him. So no need to blame the son. I'm not privy to the details of the accident, but perhaps he did the right thing by hitting it, "don't veer for deer" was an advertising theme s...
by almostretired1965
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance now (3/18) or wait until "bottom" of this market dip?
Replies: 29
Views: 2352

Re: Rebalance now (3/18) or wait until "bottom" of this market dip?

Or do I wait until it appears we are at the "bottom" of this market dip What metric, exactly, would make it so it "appears we are at the bottom"? I'm actually going to take a crack at this, rather, a way to think about it. A possible bottom is when the uncertainty around the spread of the virus (in...
by almostretired1965
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 193369

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

I would say based on the evidence so far, the lower bound is around 0.5 (based on South Korea), and that is 5x the flu. This assumes that you have: 1) World class health care system 2) Case load does not overwhelm system This idea that the fact 80%+ have mild symptoms is reassuring is extremely mis...
by almostretired1965
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 193369

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

I would say based on the evidence so far, the lower bound is around 0.5 (based on South Korea), and that is 5x the flu. This assumes that you have: 1) World class health care system 2) Case load does not overwhelm system This idea that the fact 80%+ have mild symptoms is reassuring is extremely misl...
by almostretired1965
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home buyer and selling in current market has been a nightmare!
Replies: 21
Views: 3014

Re: Home buyer and selling in current market has been a nightmare!

My opinion is that there now a strong probability you are going to luck out (assuming your employment situation is very stable). We are almost surely going into a recession as I write this and there are reasons to believe it may be as severe as 2008 and more difficult to turn around. The housing mar...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy short-term health insurance or ACA plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1431

Re: Should I buy short-term health insurance or ACA plan

A cautionary tale on the perils of non-ACA insurance plans: https://www.wlrn.org/post/miami-man-who-flew-china-worried-he-might-have-coronavirus-he-may-owe-thousands#stream/0 You may have better luck with a reputable insurer like UHC, but frankly, I think going without insurance may actually be a be...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yellowstone trip beginning of June
Replies: 23
Views: 2077

Re: Yellowstone trip beginning of June

Unfortunately, I'm not sure there is a "great" time to visit Yellowstone anymore. My first trip there in 2003, we spend a week at Tetons and 2 weeks at Yellowstone during the last 3 weeks of September and had a wonderful time. It was not deserted by any means, but nothing felt very crowded. We stopp...
by almostretired1965
Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 38 yr old having 2nd thoughts...
Replies: 93
Views: 10847

Re: 38 yr old having 2nd thoughts...

12 years ago, back in 2008, did you have a lot invested in the market? It is easy to say that you will be able to stay the course in the abstract, it is quite another when week after week, the market keeps going down. Having some bonds in your portfolio will smooth out the drops a bit and help you r...
by almostretired1965
Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Biomedical Engineering School Matter?
Replies: 94
Views: 6365

Re: Does Biomedical Engineering School Matter?

So one thing you should keep in mind is if she decides that BioMed Eng is not what she wants to pursue, are the alternatives a lot better/more interesting at the Flagship? From what you described, the local state school might not have a big enough cohort of top flight students to ensure that your da...
by almostretired1965
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market sell off
Replies: 55
Views: 7724

Re: Market sell off

I would say that we got more indications this weekend that the odds that the corona virus will become a serious pandemic has increase. The situation in both South Korea and Italy is becoming critical. Unfortunately, at this point we just don't know what will happen, but I think there will be an infl...
by almostretired1965
Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do You Have a Long Term Travel Strategy?
Replies: 67
Views: 6058

Re: Do You Have a Long Term Travel Strategy?

I think this is a situation where you need to be flexible and will depend a great deal on your kids' temperament and interests as they age. I can tell you that I would have gotten next to nothing from traveling before I turned 18. Truth of the matter is to this day I don't get much from it; I do it ...
by almostretired1965
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much should a college student save for when he graduates?
Replies: 14
Views: 1150

Re: How much should a college student save for when he graduates?

My guess is that you will need to save (or perhaps borrow temporarily from your parents) enough to cover your anticipated expenses plus a margin for safety until the first paycheck rolls in. One thing I would not do is move out/sign a lease until I have a job lined up. Even then stuff happens; the o...
by almostretired1965
Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Everything in Vanguard
Replies: 26
Views: 3174

Re: Everything in Vanguard

Stuff happens, but I'm not worried about it. What is more plausible is something like a cyber attack, or an upgrade gone bad, that makes it difficult or impossible for you to access your funds in the next 24 hours. For that reason I think it is advisable to have at least two banking like institution...
by almostretired1965
Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Showing receipt at Walmart
Replies: 44
Views: 1998

Re: Showing receipt at Walmart

Along those lines, it seems like you don't have a problem with it if it's a warehouse club. Why not? The Walmart I frequent does not do it. Though it does get annoying at Costco when the line is several customers deep, I wouldn't find it any more or less annoying if my local Walmart decided to do th...
by almostretired1965
Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k containing Roth dollars?
Replies: 6
Views: 407

Re: 401k containing Roth dollars?

My employer has a similar plan. When you are withholding funds from your paycheck, you can choose to put into one of three buckets, pre-tax, Roth, or after-tax. Pre-tax and Roth together are subject to the standard 19.5K or so limit (plus an extra $6.5K if you are over 50). In addition, you can cont...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you ever hold enough Fixed Income to cover you until a certain age?
Replies: 55
Views: 3231

Re: Would you ever hold enough Fixed Income to cover you until a certain age?

Sort of. At one point years ago when I was pretty sure I planned/needed to work until 65, my plan was to: 1. Figure out roughly what I needed on an annual basis to live comfortably but with not frills whatsoever (but including taxes, medical, etc.) 2. Take a lump sum and buy an annuity that, togethe...
by almostretired1965
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with priority: max both Roth’s or increase 401K beyond match?
Replies: 28
Views: 1343

Re: Help with priority: max both Roth’s or increase 401K beyond match?

So in my view, the key issue is your current marginal rate versus what you anticipate will be your rate when the money is withdrawn. Obviously the latter has a lot of uncertainty, much of which are beyond your control (future rates, etc.) Here is my rule of thumb. If your current marginal rate is 15...
by almostretired1965
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I find a different job with a better commute?
Replies: 50
Views: 3498

Re: Should I find a different job with a better commute?

I have to say, I don't get the 2hr + round trip commutes on a semi-permanent basis. That's a good chunk of your life that you are never getting back. I had a 1.5 hr round trip for about 7 years because I was too lazy to move, but that is my limit. The older I've gotten the less tolerant I've become ...
by almostretired1965
Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hand raising with impending layoffs
Replies: 21
Views: 3800

Re: Hand raising with impending layoffs

As others have mentioned, if you have a good relationship with your manager, I doubt that there will be any long term consequences. I've never been able to pull it off, but a good friend did. He was a director in charge or around 40 ICs doing software development. He had a very good relationship wit...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 968
Views: 132982

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Mid 50s couple living in HCOL area; DW retired. Taxable Income, W2 - $460K Taxable Income, other - $200K Assets in taxable accounts - 4.7M 401K/IRAs - 2M Current Annual Expenses - $80K I had set our "number" a bit arbitrarily at $4M a while back, and we hit that 3 and a half years ago. Almost retire...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to leave money when we die
Replies: 68
Views: 5363

Re: Where to leave money when we die

My wife and I are in a similar situation. Our wills are such that should one of us pass away, the other will get everything. After that the plan is for her half to go to three charities she has selected, whereas my half will go to my parents or my sister. Not sure what I will do if my current benefi...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Tires
Replies: 95
Views: 8167

Re: Costco Tires

I went to Costco one time and was very impressed with their prices and services. I wanted to come back a second time but the wait time is always atrocious. I now exclusively shop America's Tire/Discount Tires. They have bar none the best customer service I've ever had the pleasure to deal with. I h...
by almostretired1965
Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HS senior to-be is telling us he is thinking about majoring in Economics...
Replies: 75
Views: 6350

Re: HS senior to-be is telling us he is thinking about majoring in Economics...

I think any of those majors or some combination of them can all work. My own view is that most kids don't really have a good idea about what will work for them, and those that do, only think they know. The key is to experiment a bit and find/stumble upon he intersection between a subject matter that...
by almostretired1965
Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Grad with fashion design degree looking for job in that field
Replies: 99
Views: 3628

Re: New Grad with fashion design degree looking for job in that field

This post has it exactly right. Unfortunately your gd picked a field, like most artistic oriented endeavors, where success depends more than a little bit on dumb luck. Nonetheless it sounds like she has a lot of talent and if I were her it's a bit early to be giving up. There is nothing wrong with w...
by almostretired1965
Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The annual "Boglehead considering a country club" thread
Replies: 115
Views: 6930

Re: The annual "Boglehead considering a country club" thread

So I'm curious, did your parents have the membership before you were born? If so how did they manage it? Either way, it trikes me that they would have some valuable insights for you in regards to the early years .... as opposed to the peanut gallery here .....
by almostretired1965
Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?
Replies: 123
Views: 8577

Re: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?

For me, it tops out at around 0.5. I have most of my investments in index funds or etfs of one sort or another, but I've had some money in Vanguard's Primecap and Primecap Core for over 20 years and have never felt the urge or need to liquidate them though I've not added anything in quite awhile. Wh...
by almostretired1965
Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it "normal" for an employer to choose the tax withholding amount for vesting RSUs?
Replies: 3
Views: 350

Re: Is it "normal" for an employer to choose the tax withholding amount for vesting RSUs?

You should contact your HR department for the details of your plan. At my employer, it is fixed at 22% for all employees below a certain grade. Above that grade, you are able to select a higher withholding pegged to the available marginal tax rates for ordinary income. All of it is done via our HR, ...
by almostretired1965
Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone watch the Amazon series “The Expanse”?
Replies: 50
Views: 5578

Re: Anyone watch the Amazon series “The Expanse”?

Agreed. The only Sci-Fi series I've enjoyed more is Star Trek TOS for nostalgia and Firefly, since well, I like westerns ......

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by almostretired1965
Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: One share of MSFT per paycheck
Replies: 52
Views: 5184

Re: One share of MSFT per paycheck

Seriously, it's one share per paycheck. I don't think he is putting his financial future at risk. Think of it as a scaled down version of a lottery ticket.
You can't win if you don't play! Not that I ever understood it, but some people seem to have fun in Vegas throwing their money away .....

A
by almostretired1965
Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is most likely to happen to bond funds if equities suffer in coronavirus fallout?
Replies: 33
Views: 3498

Re: What is most likely to happen to bond funds if equities suffer in coronavirus fallout?

Ignoring the wisdom of market timing, I personally think the risk centers around China's ability to prevent the epidemic from spreading beyond Hubei in a substantial way. If it does not, then we can expect a significant reduction in China's growth rate for this year and possibly the next, and the re...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: RSUs about to vest. However,
Replies: 21
Views: 1972

Re: RSUs about to vest. However,

Psychologically, it can be difficult to sell when all you see is up, up, and up. At the company I joined a little over a year ago, selling would have been the wrong move, in hindsight, at any point over the last 5 years. One of my colleagues, who has been with the firm for over 10 years has never so...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you drive without a spare tire?
Replies: 193
Views: 11554

Re: Would you drive without a spare tire?

Not that it can't happen, but I've never been in a situation where I needed to remove and replace a tire in an emergency. Carrying a compressor has always been good enough to get me to a repair facility to get the tire plugged, and I've had maybe 10 to 20 leaks from nails/screws over the years. The ...
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Capital Gains Tax - Can I omit paying it by moving to a capitals gains tax free country?
Replies: 45
Views: 3348

Re: Capital Gains Tax - Can I omit paying it by moving to a capitals gains tax free country?

I have no idea, but I suspect this question is highly sensitive to your current and future residency/citizenship status, the country you are currently located in, and the country you are planning to move to. So without more specific info, I doubt anyone can tell you what the tax implications are.
by almostretired1965
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107186

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years. Some folks got a flu and there are some travel bans and you are wondering about why the market isn't react...