Search found 2074 matches

by bgf
Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899777

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 4.51% YTD. Benchmark 2050 TDF is 3.85%.

HFEA up 8.48%. PSLDX up 2.69%.

Rebalancing was very lucky for my HFEA.
by bgf
Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899777

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

ruralavalon wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:55 am Age 78 retired,no pension or annuity, my asset allocation is 60/40.

Total return of my portfolio is + 3.36% year to date.

That's about my expected withdrawal rate for the entire year.
Would you consider just selling what you need for the year now and locking up a full years expenses with zero risk?
by bgf
Sun Feb 18, 2024 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]
Replies: 59
Views: 9870

Re: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]

RSSB (basically 100% VT/100% VGTI) is worse than holding just 100% VT because cash is superior to intermediate bonds. At least, portfolio visualizer shows a CAGR of 2.14% for VGTI over the last 14 years and you can definitely get a higher interest than 2.14% from just interest on cash/removing borrowing costs of cash. let's say you have a 20 year investment horizon, how is RSSB "worse" than VT? When the borrowing margin cost is higher than the yield of bond you are holding, it would be a drag on returns, would it not? Yes, you get the diversification benefit of a 50 / 50 portfolio, but at a cost, no? RSBB makes a lot more sense when the yield curve slopes upward. At least you get a modest return even if yields are flat for the pe...
by bgf
Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]
Replies: 59
Views: 9870

Re: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]

kimagical wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:04 am RSSB (basically 100% VT/100% VGTI) is worse than holding just 100% VT because cash is superior to intermediate bonds. At least, portfolio visualizer shows a CAGR of 2.14% for VGTI over the last 14 years and you can definitely get a higher interest than 2.14% from just interest on cash/removing borrowing costs of cash.
let's say you have a 20 year investment horizon, how is RSSB "worse" than VT?
by bgf
Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Building a Taxable Portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1409

Re: Building a Taxable Portfolio

climber2020 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:22 am Keep your taxable account all stocks and put your entire bond allocation in your 401k (and fill the remaining space with stock funds).

When stocks crash or boom, you can rebalance inside your 401k without any tax consequences.
This depends on if your taxable account also has the same time horizon as your 401k. If it does, then this is a great strategy. If you are probably going to be selling from taxable for spending then I think it makes sense to keep shorter duration securities in taxable. Not sure if the tax benefit overcomes the volatility of 100% stocks.
by bgf
Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Maybe this is the wrong thread to post on but I'm worried about being brigaded by "just do the three fund portfolio" folks if I start a new one. Given we now have so many levered/capital efficient options what would y'alls preferred allocation be targeting 150-200% gross exposure? Hedgefundie was 300% gross allocated between US equities and US LT treasuries. However we can also go long int equities, managed futures and gold. I kind of like the new Return Stacked ETFs RSST, RSBT, and RSSB which are all 200% gross exposure of either stocks + managed futures, bonds + managed futures or stocks + bonds all 50/50. You also have the various gold and other commodity leveraged ETFs and etns I wouldn’t feel comfortable going 100% with any ...
by bgf
Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Options Not Great - Need Advice!
Replies: 22
Views: 2001

Re: 401K Options Not Great - Need Advice!

Vanguard Target Date Retirement Funds would have you at 10% bonds. That may be too much or too little for you personally, but it’s a good starting point.
by bgf
Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Family of 4 debating 3 row SUV
Replies: 71
Views: 7635

Re: Family of 4 debating 3 row SUV

the best option is the minivan which you all dont want. i agree with the above poster that next best option is the kia telluride, which is basically a minivan in suv bodywork.
by bgf
Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

Are folks sticking with PSLDX or adding RSSB ETF? Other than the international allocation how different is PSLDX from RSSB? Does PIMCO have a secret sauce, because it is an active bond allocation? PSLDX did better than 100-100 portfolio in backtest. PSLDX vs RSSB SIM https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4p4CcN4iCrSQgFbsQLqmf5 https://i.ibb.co/4Yt3Qq9/T1.jpg PSLDX expense ratio is 0.59%. Gross Expense Ratio 1.71% includes other expenses including " interest expense from borrowings and repurchase agreements and dividend expense from investments on short sales incurred directly by the Fund or indirectly through the Fund’s investments in underlying PIMCO Funds (if applicable), none of which are paid to PIMCO.&...
by bgf
Sat Jan 06, 2024 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Plan - Age 38 w/over $2 million
Replies: 120
Views: 28619

Re: Early Retirement Plan - Age 38 w/over $2 million

No way id live off 40k with kids. Its miserable. We're on year 10 of marriage with kids, highest ever spend in a single year was ~$45k in our MCOL area; when my wife was in school full-time, both kids in childcare, and we still had a mortgage. We're well below $40k/yr in spend now and we are definitely not miserable. We'd spend more if we really thought it would increase our QOL and we can definitely afford to (NW >$2M and ~$300k/yr in income). But, if we were comfortable with projecting $40k/yr in spend in retirement, we'd have quit the game a while ago. I wouldn't plan on retiring with a family on $40k/yr even in LCOL area, that doesn't leave very much wiggle room for unplanned expenses and things change. I'm especially concerned about m...
by bgf
Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

Are folks sticking with PSLDX or adding RSSB ETF? Other than the international allocation how different is PSLDX from RSSB? Does PIMCO have a secret sauce, because it is an active bond allocation? PSLDX did better than 100-100 portfolio in backtest. PSLDX vs RSSB SIM https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4p4CcN4iCrSQgFbsQLqmf5 https://i.ibb.co/4Yt3Qq9/T1.jpg Effective as of 07/31/2023 Gross Expense Ratio 1.71% Really everyone? If you check yourself, it has had a worse return as of 2017 (6 years) and also costs a bunch more. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults VTI's cost ratio is .05% PSLDX cost ratio 1.71% It also underperforms. Why again? PSLDX expense ratio is 0.59%. Gross Ex...
by bgf
Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Maybe this is the wrong thread to post on but I'm worried about being brigaded by "just do the three fund portfolio" folks if I start a new one. Given we now have so many levered/capital efficient options what would y'alls preferred allocation be targeting 150-200% gross exposure? Hedgefundie was 300% gross allocated between US equities and US LT treasuries. However we can also go long int equities, managed futures and gold. I kind of like the new Return Stacked ETFs RSST, RSBT, and RSSB which are all 200% gross exposure of either stocks + managed futures, bonds + managed futures or stocks + bonds all 50/50. You also have the various gold and other commodity leveraged ETFs and etns I wouldn’t feel comfortable going 100% with any ...
by bgf
Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Maybe this is the wrong thread to post on but I'm worried about being brigaded by "just do the three fund portfolio" folks if I start a new one. Given we now have so many levered/capital efficient options what would y'alls preferred allocation be targeting 150-200% gross exposure? Hedgefundie was 300% gross allocated between US equities and US LT treasuries. However we can also go long int equities, managed futures and gold. I kind of like the new Return Stacked ETFs RSST, RSBT, and RSSB which are all 200% gross exposure of either stocks + managed futures, bonds + managed futures or stocks + bonds all 50/50. You also have the various gold and other commodity leveraged ETFs and etns I wouldn’t feel comfortable going 100% with any ...
by bgf
Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899777

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Portfolio up 20.8% with a cash drag for a home improvement project coming this spring, kept >5% of portfolio in cash for it. Very slight outperformance over benchmark. even if i were only invested in the benchmark itself, i'd still underperform due to 401k/403b fees.

PSLDX portion finished up 27.9%. Watered down HFEA up 25.5%.

Benchmark:

VFIFX 20.2% Vanguard 2050 Target Date Fund

Portfolio size finished at all time high. Same for net worth, which is dominated by portfolio.
by bgf
Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: RSSB vs NTSX. More leverage for the same collateral?
Replies: 33
Views: 5811

Re: RSSB vs NTSX. More leverage for the same collateral?

I've recently done some research into NTSX (Wisdomtree US efficient core 90/60 stocks/bonds). It seems like a compelling strategy and i've been converting some of my equity positions into NTSX and NTSI (developed international version of NTSX) to gain bond exposure without having to give up much equity exposure. My original 90/10 stocks/treasuries goal, but "upgraded" to ~97/18. Earlier this month though i saw where a new fund with a similar approach started trading, RSSB (return stacked global stocks and bonds). This uses the same 10% allocation to cash or cash equivalents as collateral for futures, but RSSB uses it to back a 10x leveraged treasury futures ladder (rather than NTSX's 6x), as well as a 10% S&P500 futures posit...
by bgf
Fri Dec 22, 2023 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

firebirdparts wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 6:37 am I was thinking the opposite. I have some sort of affection for psldx because Fidelity doesn’t want me to have it, but I would never keep it if they allowed me to simulate it with ETFs. I hold it in a 401k where ETFs are not allowed.
How would you simulate it?
by bgf
Fri Dec 22, 2023 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

I know others have already made this point repeatedly in this thread and others, but I'm reviewing my portfolio again and can't justify paying the (pretty reasonable) management fees for PSLDX or (RSSB) given that I could just buy treasury futures and low cost equity ETFs. I've never bought futures before, but it doesn't seem that complicated. The only things giving me pause are potential behavioral issues (e.g. being tempted to try to time duration) and a fear (perhaps irrational) of screwing up the trading or margin mechanics. Those both seem relatively easy to overcome. Curious if anyone has thoughts. I think it will be difficult to stick to the rebalancing strategy as PSLDX would. I know this because I do HFEA in my Roth, and I barely ...
by bgf
Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anything else (to do at Merrill Edge?)
Replies: 30
Views: 4437

Re: Anything else (to do at Merrill Edge?)

7. ME has a much more extensive selection of money market mutual funds with institutional share classes for only a minimum of $1000. What Money Market mutual funds do you recommend at ME? I like TTTXX. It is a Blackrock treasury money market fund (last year it was over 96% exempt from state/local income tax), NTF, only $1k minimum initial investment, $1 minimum purchase thereafter. It has a 1:45pm cut off time which is better than many of the other money market fund options. ME NTF MMF options: https://olui2.fs.ml.com/publish/content/application/pdf/gwmol/iccratesheet.pdf ME NTF MMF trade cutoff times: https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Mutualfunds/MFBDCashManagement.aspx How long does it take from submitting a sale order of a MMF to having the cash ...
by bgf
Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Implications of selling Target Date Fund and buying ETF's
Replies: 5
Views: 796

Re: Implications of selling Target Date Fund and buying ETF's

About 15 years ago, I did what you’re contemplating and never looked back. After getting fed up with the sub par performance in anything international within the target date funds, I wanted to rid myself of the allocation to anything non U.S. in both equities and bonds. Except for a position in Vanguard’s high yield bond fund (VWEAX) which isn’t offered in an ETF, everything is in ETFs in the total stock market, total bond market, corporate bonds (short and intermediate term) and short term TIPs. The portfolio has not only significantly outperformed any target fund that I used to be in, but it’s given me the control in managing the portfolio that I didn’t have before making the change. From 2002 to 2012 international outperformed US. then ...
by bgf
Tue Dec 19, 2023 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not leveraged Sp500 - xxxx/upro?
Replies: 41
Views: 6680

Re: Why not leveraged Sp500 - xxxx/upro?

lots of people talking about volatility decay as if it negates the possibility of outsized returns. it, of course, does not. nor does the expense ratio. nor does the inverted yield curve. UPRO has a CAGR of over 25% since its inception in Jan. 2010. Thats thirteen years buy and hold. Looks like its done fine. Max drawdown of 62%. I've held UPRO and TMF since november of 2021. most people here can't speak with any experience watching these funds day in and day out. by far, the most painful was TMF. it went down seemingly every day for weeks. with many big down days of 6+%. of course, its gone up over 30% in just the past few weeks. the problem with holding these leveraged funds is not the expense ratio, volatility decay, or a 35% one day dro...
by bgf
Mon Dec 18, 2023 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car shopping: test drives, financing, hybrids
Replies: 30
Views: 5245

Re: New car shopping: test drives, financing, hybrids

I have a 2020 es300h and absolutely love it. Quiet, comfortable, reliable. I bought it on Carvana. Super easy. They transported it on a trailer, dropped it off at my house, and left with my trade in. It was awesome. Never went to a dealership.
by bgf
Fri Dec 15, 2023 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

Lawyered_ wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2023 11:20 am
e5116 wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2023 10:37 am Today is yet another huge uptick for long-term bonds.
Yea baby. Ride this yield train down. When we are sitting at 3% yields in 1.5 years people should seriously consider whether it makes sense to hold PSLDX again.
meh, it depends on the interest rate volatility. if interest rates are more stable (even if they drop down below 3.0% before before rebounding back up), i wouldn't mind owning this fund even in a rising interest rate environment so long as its well communicated and rates are slow and steady. what i definitely dont want to see again is a doubling of rates in a very short period of time.
by bgf
Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I’m still in this strategy, and I started right before it all went bad. If anything, I just hope the Fed truthers will shut up about how easy it is to time rates and how easy it is to explain interest rate movements across the curve. If this year has done anything it’s shown me how pitiful macro analysts are. Nobody knows nothing. You’re either sized properly within your risk tolerance and goals for this strategy or you’re not. I imagine most were not and gave up.

I’m so conditioned to watch TMF fall relentlessly that this past month I feel like I’m in the upside down.
by bgf
Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

comeinvest wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 3:18 pm
bgf wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 2:21 pm PSLDX now has competition by RSSB.

RSSB provides global equity exposure plus US treasury futures exposure. fund seeks exposure of $1 in global equities and $1 dollar in US treasuries for every $1 invested. ER is 0.41.

its an ETF and it holds equities, not bonds, so it may be more tax efficient than PSLDX.
RSSB looks more similar to NTSI than to PSLDX. What's the difference between RSSB and NTSI ?
It would be closer to a combo of NTSX and NTSI, but they only provide 1.5x leverage, while RSSB provides 2x like PSLDX.
by bgf
Tue Dec 05, 2023 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

PSLDX now has competition by RSSB.

RSSB provides global equity exposure plus US treasury futures exposure. fund seeks exposure of $1 in global equities and $1 dollar in US treasuries for every $1 invested. ER is 0.41.

its an ETF and it holds equities, not bonds, so it may be more tax efficient than PSLDX.
by bgf
Sat Dec 02, 2023 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Aren't the theoretical returns calculated using a bunch of variables that assume returns are normally distributed? Returns are not, in fact, normally distributed, leverage is a good way to expose yourself to that fact. I don't think that's at issue. Many HEDGEFUNDIE followers are pretty sophisticated about things like that, and have a detailed understanding of leveraged ETFs, way beyond mine. The problem--assuming it actually is a problem--is not an assumption of normality, but overconfidence in the persistence of the period of negative correlation between stocks and bonds which began around the year 2000. HEDGEFUNDIE has chosen not to engage in the forum since June of 2020, so he can't phrase this in his own words, but he believed that th...
by bgf
Sat Dec 02, 2023 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

LearnFin wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 4:14 pm I started my PSLDX positions in Jan of 2022 and have been clobbered.

Assuming if I take a view that interest rates have peaked and either they stay here or go down from here- can one have an outlook that psldx performance will be better next few years out ? I understand that there is an equity component and its performance also matters.
I started mine with unlucky timing as well. My only regret is that it is 100% of an old IRA I no longer make contributions to so that I was unable do dollar cost average into it. It’s a simple fund of bonds and stock futures. Odds are, if your holding period is long enough, it will outperform stocks only. This isn’t guaranteed, and it may take many years to claw back.
by bgf
Fri Dec 01, 2023 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Great month but damn big returns after big losses don’t look so big lol. Big month for PSLDX as well obviously. I still got miles to go before I catch up to my benchmark though.
by bgf
Fri Dec 01, 2023 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899777

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

14.2% just behind benchmark of VFIFX at 14.3%.

My HFEA portion is up 10.3%. PSLDX portion 13.9%.

Much better than 2022 for HFEA but still had a really rough patch for a few months there. November was huge though.
by bgf
Wed Nov 22, 2023 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding HEDGEFUNDIE’s excellent adventure
Replies: 367
Views: 98177

Re: Riding HEDGEFUNDIE’s excellent adventure

Lawyered_ wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2023 11:00 am Still riding HFEA as a big bag holder. Rebalancing weekly, down 45%. Choo choo.
I’m down 45% against benchmark of VT.

UPRO up 25% and TMF up 27% in the past month. Things move fast in both directions.
by bgf
Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

huge move in the 2 year today following release of CPI. Fed hasn't moved rates in several months, yet yields have had massive volatility during the period of 'pause.'

hopefully people have paid attention and realize that anticipating rate moves is, like, really really hard. you can't just sit around waiting for the Fed and expect to somehow 'beat' the rates outlook.
by bgf
Sat Nov 11, 2023 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I basically got going with HFEA in June 2019. I started off with some adaptive allocations based on inverse volatility after a while, settling on a UPRO/TQQQ/TMF/TYD approach that approximated a 55/45 UPRO/TMF portfolio. I first posted my adaptive approach in May 2022 ( here ). I had been easing towards it for a while. I kept at it, experimenting and making various tweaks. The full summary statement for the approach is here (May 2023). The approach has been essentially stable since then. It is not a buy and hold approach, but it is not day trading either. With no additions to the portfolio since 6/1/2022, the current account balance is down 4.7% since then (9.2% down at end of October), in a range between 21.4% down and 6.9% up relative to...
by bgf
Tue Nov 07, 2023 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

goblue100 wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 4:44 pm Wow. I was checking into buying this in my IRA. Fidelity seems to have a $1,000,000 minimum order? Ouch, I wanted to buy 10 grand. My other option is Vanguard, with a $25k minimum. In for a penny, in for a pound.
Schwab has a low minimum order. Can’t remember exactly what it is.
by bgf
Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

alluringreality wrote: Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:13 am
bgf wrote: Sat Nov 04, 2023 7:54 am a lot of people learned the lesson of the difference between backtesting a strategy and LIVING with a strategy. two totally different things. only the latter matters.
I agree rear view mirror investment strategy, or data mining past performance, can be really tough to live through. Just imagine applying core concepts from this thread to build a plan that might lose more than 60% real in around 2.5 years, and labeling it an emergency fund.
viewtopic.php?p=5251290#p5251290
This is a long term risky strategy best used in a Roth account. Definitely not an emergency fund!
by bgf
Sat Nov 04, 2023 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I think, owning long dated bonds is super risky unless held to maturity. More risky than stocks (IWM)? Yes. But TLT has already fallen 54%, the risk reward ratio is already good from here. Do you think another drop of that magnitude from current values ​​is possible? IWM also, -33% from previous high. Why are people considering this extreme portfolio at all if they don't thoroughly understand the very simple dynamics of bonds. Of course the same drop long term treasuries experienced can happen all over again. These losses were born by just a ~3% interest rate rise on durations of 16+ . (3 x 16 = 48% loss) . These long term treasuries are still under 5%, they can go to 8%, they can even go to 10%. You can lose another 50% on TLT, you can lo...
by bgf
Sat Nov 04, 2023 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

OuterBanks wrote: Fri Nov 03, 2023 7:22 pm Hope no one sold as we bounced off the bottom. It has been a great week and I see all time highs going forward from here, unless another black swan event hits us.
i haven't sold any. for better or worse... mostly worse so far, but if this really is the end of this hiking cycle (who knows) then this fund is set up very well over the next few years.
by bgf
Sat Oct 14, 2023 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Money Market Fund vs Short Term Treasury ETF
Replies: 18
Views: 3083

Re: Money Market Fund vs Short Term Treasury ETF

Booogle wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 8:11 am These are bond ETFs that expire and liquidate in a particular year:

https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/b ... nd-ladders

https://www.invesco.com/us/en/solutions ... -etfs.html
Cool, had no idea these existed.
by bgf
Thu Oct 12, 2023 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is anyone rebalancing back into TMF? I have been following this strategy since 2021 and haven't been rebalancing in the past year. What are your thoughts on TMF. Should I start to rebalancing quarterly again (why, why not?) or let it ride until the fed decides is done with hikes. Yes, I’m planning on rebuying TMF at my 10/3 rebalance. However, it’s a small amount of money as of today’s prices ($3300) so not very stressful. If HFEA is ever successful again I’d be more stressed out of buying large amounts of TMF — if it ever comes roaring back I might even consider exiting the strategy. If this strategy ever has good returns in the next 5 years it’s possible they could be driven by TMF. The modification I’m thinking about making to the strat...
by bgf
Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970477

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is anyone rebalancing back into TMF? I have been following this strategy since 2021 and haven't been rebalancing in the past year. What are your thoughts on TMF. Should I start to rebalancing quarterly again (why, why not?) or let it ride until the fed decides is done with hikes. Yes, I’m planning on rebuying TMF at my 10/3 rebalance. However, it’s a small amount of money as of today’s prices ($3300) so not very stressful. If HFEA is ever successful again I’d be more stressed out of buying large amounts of TMF — if it ever comes roaring back I might even consider exiting the strategy. If this strategy ever has good returns in the next 5 years it’s possible they could be driven by TMF. The modification I’m thinking about making to the strat...
by bgf
Fri Oct 06, 2023 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How lower can TLT drop from here? [iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF]
Replies: 87
Views: 11030

Re: How lower can TLT drop from here? [iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF]

ExTx wrote: Thu Oct 05, 2023 6:28 pm I'll get interested starting at 5%. Buy in 100 share lots, sell calls.
Hit 5.05 this morning.
by bgf
Thu Oct 05, 2023 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How lower can TLT drop from here? [iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF]
Replies: 87
Views: 11030

Re: How lower can TLT drop from here? [iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF]

If you think this is bad, imagine the depths of despair the HFEA crowd must be feeling. But I thought it was backtested from 1955-2018? If HFEA survived the early 80s this shouldn't be as bad. TMF is down 90 percent the last 3 years. :( my HFEA is currently down around 50% compared to a benchmark of VT. we have two Roth IRAs - one with VT and one with HFEA, so its easy to track. HFEA got to within around 20% of VT and then fell back rapidly with the recent plummeting of TLT/TMF. also, i was unfortunate enough to start HFEA at the literal top, so i didn't have any overperformance 'in the bag' to buffer the downtrend since. i also own PSLDX in a Simple IRA. the performance of PSLDX has been very similar to my modified HFEA account. both of t...
by bgf
Wed Oct 04, 2023 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

PSLDX borrows at short term rates and invests in long duration bonds....correct? Given the negative yield curve plus expense ratio ...thats a big time losing proposition right? assuming interest rates dont change...its borrowing at 5.5%, paying another 1.71% for the expense ratio and investing at 4.75% Actual net expense ratio is 0.59%, the rest is borrowing cost. They're investing in long bond and use the interest/proceeds and reinvest into swaps and e-minis. So does that mean their borrowing cost is 1.71 - 0.59 or about 1.1%? How do they borrow at 1.1? Short term rates are 5.5% so that seems to be the floor for borrowing. they dont. youre mixing up the transaction costs of operating the fund strategy with the net expense ratio to investo...
by bgf
Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

Feds have been warning about rate hikes at least since Jan 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20220302a.htm Jerome Powell testified before Congress on March 3, 2022 I’m sure, but this smacks of survivorship bias. Imagine this statement you linked in January and then, to be extreme, another pandemic bug or major terrorist attack in feb. Do you think the fed would still have raised rates? I’ll concede that if everything proceeds as the fed expects they’ll make announcements they will likely stick to. But things rarely proceed as “expected.” You're missing the point. It is okay to hold PSLDX if the rates are stable or going down. So for the example you quoted, if there were another pandemic in February 2022, PSLDX ...
by bgf
Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391568

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]

Feds have been warning about rate hikes at least since Jan 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20220302a.htm Jerome Powell testified before Congress on March 3, 2022 I’m sure, but this smacks of survivorship bias. Imagine this statement you linked in January and then, to be extreme, another pandemic bug or major terrorist attack in feb. Do you think the fed would still have raised rates? I’ll concede that if everything proceeds as the fed expects they’ll make announcements they will likely stick to. But things rarely proceed as “expected.” You're missing the point. It is okay to hold PSLDX if the rates are stable or going down. So for the example you quoted, if there were another pandemic in February 2022, PSLDX ...
by bgf
Mon Jul 03, 2023 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899777

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

yog wrote: Sun Jul 02, 2023 2:47 pm Retired, buy & hold portfolio with 86% equity, 3% cash & equivalents, 11% LEAPs.

Our portfolio's performance is +53.75% YTD.
😳

What’re those LEAPs?
by bgf
Sat Jul 01, 2023 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding HEDGEFUNDIE’s excellent adventure
Replies: 367
Views: 98177

Re: Riding HEDGEFUNDIE’s excellent adventure

some may be interested in knowing how this is going. i dont do pure HFEA because i use a third component, BRK.B, to water it down. i started with 50% HFEA 50% BRK.B, but as HFEA underperformed last year i gradually increased HFEA to 70%. my goal is to basically track the return/volatility of PSLDX until (hopefully at some point) i exceed my benchmark by a sufficient amount, ie, my BRK.B portion equals that amount that i would have had in this account had i just kept it in VT, that i can allow HFEA to simply 'roam' free on its own as a lottery ticket. 2022 returned --> (43.9%) for comparison, PSLDX (100% stock, 100% bonds) returned --> (43.3%) for the first half of 2023, my watered down HFEA returned --> 20.9% PSLDX returned --> 19.7% an ini...
by bgf
Sat Jul 01, 2023 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899777

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

13.72%.

exposure is ~100/30 but using LETFs so not the same as just using 1.3x margin. with long term rates going sideways, up and down, portfolio is still hanging in there. this zigzagging in place is not great for a 3x LETF like TMF. if long term rates trend back up again, there'll be severe underperformance like last year. if long term rates fall, my portfolio will substantially outperform. if they keep zigzagging sideways like this, it seems like i'll essentially 'break even' against my benchmarks like i have since the start of the year.

Benchmarks:

VT 13.64%
VFIFX 12.35%
by bgf
Fri Jun 30, 2023 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC [Should I get a Home Equity Line Of Credit?]
Replies: 25
Views: 3278

Re: HELOC [Should I get a Home Equity Line Of Credit?]

I’m in similar boat in the southeast. We have an unfinished standalone garage we’re converting into an ADU/pool house. Quote was ~$60k, so I’m assuming ~$70k once furnished. Not going to rent it out. Building will start January 2024. We have enough stocks in our brokerage account to pay for it after selling and paying LTCG; however, this would basically tap out the brokerage account… we should be able to add to the account between now and then some, not much. 5-10k maybe. I don’t like not having money in the brokerage account because it would constitute our emergency savings. I’m considering opening the HELOC but using taxable. If anything happens where we’d need additional cash that we can’t cash flow, I’d draw from the HELOC. We’ll have n...
by bgf
Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s wrong with this etf yielding 11% (JEPI)? [JPMorgan Equity Premium Income]
Replies: 152
Views: 34422

Re: What’s wrong with this etf yielding 11% (JEPI)? [JPMorgan Equity Premium Income]

JEPI had net inflows of $26b in the first 3 years of its existence which means it’s been extraordinarily good at attracting assets.
by bgf
Mon Jun 19, 2023 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% TMF?
Replies: 88
Views: 15189

Re: Why not 100% TMF?

chrisdds98 wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2023 8:38 pm
Diego_Quant wrote: Sun Jun 18, 2023 7:55 pm But I think right now at these levels $TLT $TMF are attractive not in 2021 but right now all or most of the drop has already happened
what will happen to TMF when japan ends its yield curve control? or if china dumps its treasuries due to conflict over taiwan? or inflation stays persistent and long rates have to stay high indefinitely?
It’ll go down. It’s not hard to imagine poor future outcomes for any asset.