Search found 77 matches

by bgf
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
Replies: 64
Views: 3461

Re: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin

I don’t think it’s fair to say people who buy Bitcoin are speculators who only care about price increases. I buy bitcoin because I believe in the properties of the currency. I believe the technology offers new characteristics of money which have never been seen before. I chose to put my money into ...
by bgf
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 3525

Re: Does it look like a bubble to you?

Nah, looks more like a squiggly line to me.
by bgf
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell some of my Berkshire stock
Replies: 31
Views: 2748

Re: Should I sell some of my Berkshire stock

Many thanks to all the comments on my question. A couple clarifications. -my reason for selling would be : 1. avoid the capital gains tax while I'm in a lower tax bracket 2. reduce my exposure to one company -most likely I will need the money and not be passing it on to my heirs, so I will have to ...
by bgf
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you moved to ETF's? Why or why not?
Replies: 33
Views: 2236

Re: Have you moved to ETF's? Why or why not?

i only own ETFs. with merrill edge i have 100 free trades per month, which is about 98-99 more than I need, but whatever. so i get the cheap expense and tax efficiency of ETFs but it also costs me 'nothing,' apart from bid-ask spread, to purchase them.

seems like a pretty awesome deal to me.
by bgf
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm 100% international with VEU. Is this wise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3052

Re: I'm 100% international with VEU. Is this wise?

the biggest concern i would have is currency risk. i generally dont worry about currency volatility given that my US-International split is basically 50-50, and, over the very long term, currency fluctuations tend to even out. 100% international stocks bought with US dollars is going to hurt a lot i...
by bgf
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for Cash Flow vs Capital Gains. Which one is better?
Replies: 6
Views: 582

Re: Investing for Cash Flow vs Capital Gains. Which one is better?

i don't know much about real estate investing and have only ever owned my home. i think he is drawing a clear distinction between purchasing a home for the consistent, periodic cash flows generated by renting it out in contrast to someone purchasing a home with the intention of "flipping" it in the ...
by bgf
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 15954

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

... Thinking of Time Lord Today as I see the Dow up +330 and the S&P is up 1% ...all on top of the gains earlier this week. i check this thread every day now, just to have a chuckle. Quite an interesting reaction. I don't know what you find amusing. bear markets are the price of admission for the r...
by bgf
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 15954

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

grettman wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:25 pm
... Thinking of Time Lord Today as I see the Dow up +330 and the S&P is up 1% ...all on top of the gains earlier this week.
i check this thread every day now, just to have a chuckle.
by bgf
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 140
Views: 13371

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

sounds like he's played this entire thing perfectly. he knew exactly what he was doing. he made a pure speculation play with, what i assume, was a very small amount of his net worth, and, boom, it has paid off exactly how you hope speculative bets play out. he's now got $1m and only wagered $10k!!! ...
by bgf
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Market Risk By Short Selling Index ETF Or Selling Index Futures?
Replies: 25
Views: 1629

Re: Hedge Market Risk By Short Selling Index ETF Or Selling Index Futures?

For most people, derivatives increase risk, not reduce it. I think that depends on how they are used. A simple call/put option provides a certain and limited downside in exchange for an asymmetric upside. Depending on how you use them, they need not be very risky. I think there is a substantial dif...
by bgf
Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Market Risk By Short Selling Index ETF Or Selling Index Futures?
Replies: 25
Views: 1629

Re: Hedge Market Risk By Short Selling Index ETF Or Selling Index Futures?

would buying out of the money puts also be an alternative for you? you mention hedging, so depending on your horizon, what you are really looking for is decreased downside volatility in your overall portfolio, correct? in exchange for that, you would be willing to lose small amounts of money consist...
by bgf
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 15954

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

i am absolutely loving this. if we stay flat for the rest of the year, my portfolio IRR will be over 20%. that is a good year.
by bgf
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 665
Views: 111700

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

soupcxan wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:18 pm
It's not on their website but Fidelity is offering these transfer bonuses if you call and ask for them:

$2500 for $1M
$3500 for $2.5M
$5000 for $5.0M
i wish those were questions i needed to ask...
by bgf
Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Investors vs. S&P 500
Replies: 24
Views: 3017

Re: Value Investors vs. S&P 500

I have long been intrigued by the concept of value investing - buying a dollar for $.50 has always seemed to me to be a logical way to make money over the long term. But I was looking recently at the following "collective" portfolio of the top value managers, compiled from their regulatory filings,...
by bgf
Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expecting high income in 2018 ($1m+) looking for advice
Replies: 16
Views: 3143

Re: Expecting high income in 2018 ($1m+) looking for advice

MassiveDynamic wrote:
Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:28 am

- $65,000 invested in a client's business which is returning $50,000/annually.***
:shock:
by bgf
Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Fund for Taxable Account
Replies: 19
Views: 1669

Re: Best Fund for Taxable Account

$5k in a portfolio that size is not small for such a pure speculation trade. It's your money and no one here cares what you do with it. You wont get much advice in the way of speculative currency trades on BH forum. Try Reddit. I actually reduced my position from 5% to 2.5% bc of your post. I agree...
by bgf
Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Fund for Taxable Account
Replies: 19
Views: 1669

Re: Best Fund for Taxable Account

$5k in a portfolio that size is not small for such a pure speculation trade.

It's your money and no one here cares what you do with it. You wont get much advice in the way of speculative currency trades on BH forum.

Try Reddit.
by bgf
Sat Nov 25, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The fallacy of spending money on "experiences" vs hard assets
Replies: 336
Views: 17334

Re: The fallacy of spending money on "experiences" vs hard assets

i think that OP's conclusion is scientifically incorrect. i am sure that I have read about psychological findings that purchases of things, TVs, computers, jet skis, designer clothes, etc. provide a quick burst of happiness that fades rather quickly. it also leaves you subject to the treadmill effec...
by bgf
Sat Nov 25, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 15954

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

There have been zero drops of 20% or more. I didn't check but my guess is you used intraday numbers to get a drop of over 20%. https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-O4UjsZb50sY/WQpO598OJ7I/AAAAAAAAJYI/_rVcGTYYN_ome9hAuBE5MncWqwmkSuqIQCLcB/s1600/FIG1.gif I did use intraday prices. why would I not use intraday ...
by bgf
Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 15954

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

So no, I don't think you are crazy. You are thinking as an investor should. I disagree 100%. This behaviour is completely crazy and not something an investor should do. As Warren Buffett has said, "You don't need a lot of brains to be in this business. What you do need is emotional stability." TheT...
by bgf
Sat Nov 25, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A checkup on the S&P 500 index
Replies: 9
Views: 1935

Re: A checkup on the S&P 500 index

Most stocks don't perform well. MOST of them. you cannot look at the individual components of a market cap weighted index and apply the concepts of simple averages and bell curves, e.g., the false assumption that if the 'average company' is doing poorly then the index is bound to do poorly or the fa...
by bgf
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13776

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Keep in mind as well that upside volatility will also increase the standard deviation, yet no one complains about erratic yet robustly positive returns. The more data I examine, the less I believe that standard deviation is a worthwhile metric for investors to use at all. I think that 'worst year's...
by bgf
Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13776

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Is there a study or white paper showing a portfolio of 70% stocks and 30% bonds, produces 90% of the 100% stock return and exactly how much less volatility? From Portfolio Visualizer: Blue is 100% VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock) and Red is 70% VTSMX/30% VBMFX (Vanguard Total Bond). http://i68.tinypic....
by bgf
Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 8763

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

...I believe I've read that Japan was about 50% of global market cap in 1989. The Japanese bubble may be largely responsible for the late 80s dip in your graph... Quite possibly, although I don't see how it bears on the general question of international stock allocation. Certainly in the 1980s ther...
by bgf
Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 8763

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

...I believe I've read that Japan was about 50% of global market cap in 1989. The Japanese bubble may be largely responsible for the late 80s dip in your graph... Quite possibly, although I don't see how it bears on the general question of international stock allocation. Certainly in the 1980s ther...
by bgf
Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slanting International geographically or regionally
Replies: 25
Views: 1127

Re: Slanting International geographically or regionally

My portfolio
50-25-25
VTI - VEA - VWO

VT
55-35-10

So I am overweight Emerging Markets and underweight International Developed. I'm pretty close on US.
by bgf
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car buyers...you should consider financing
Replies: 39
Views: 3243

Re: New car buyers...you should consider financing

no wonder carmax exists.
by bgf
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13776

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

why do we always talk about the bond-equity risk profile as if it is a one-way street? we talk about the risk of being 'overweight' equities if there is an equity bear market. yet, i rarely hear about people discussing the equivalent risk of being 'overweight' bonds in an extended equity bull market...
by bgf
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13776

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

And on the other end of target date funds, I see no benefit whatsoever to putting 10% of the fund into bonds for a fund with a target date that's 40 years into the future. Do the 'experts' really think that bonds are going to outperform stocks over the next 40 years? Do they really think that a 10%...
by bgf
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Survivorship bias and stock for the long term
Replies: 4
Views: 624

Re: Survivorship bias and stock for the long term

So I was reading over the thread about EE bond pricing and I saw some discussion about stocks always being a better long term investment due to almost never having returns less than 3.5% nominal over 20 year periods. Although I too share enthusiasm for stocks and hold a high allocation is this real...
by bgf
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds vs Ladder
Replies: 26
Views: 1899

Re: Bond funds vs Ladder

i appreciate your responses. it makes me feel a lot better that people on this forum aren't calling me crazy and have spent a good bit of their contribution years with little to no bonds as well. I was also surprised at the Vanguard Target Retirement Fund quantandhold mentioned. the 2050 fund recomm...
by bgf
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.
Replies: 19
Views: 2553

Re: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.

Over the very long term, your index return will probably come from a small number of stocks, the last paper I read stated that the entire market's long term return came from 4% of the stocks. ("Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?" by Bessembinder)....By investing in an index, you are GUARANTEEING ...
by bgf
Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scottrade to TDA
Replies: 24
Views: 1942

Re: Scottrade to TDA

Ah thank you for explaining... Looks like Merrill Edge is offering a better deal.
by bgf
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds vs Ladder
Replies: 26
Views: 1899

Re: Bond funds vs Ladder

at the risk of highjacking this thread, i'd like to ask a question... i've just fallen down the rabbit hole of bond fund v. individual bonds; zero coupon v. coupon; known amount at known future date v. unknown amount and unknown future date - basically the BH wiki page. now that i am digging down de...
by bgf
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scottrade to TDA
Replies: 24
Views: 1942

Re: Scottrade to TDA

If I switch to Merrill, I would get only $100 each for 2 Roth IRAs. There doesn't appear to be any bonus for my taxable account. Then I guess $6.95 per trade after that. Does Merrill have any commission free ETFs? If I switch to Schwab, I'll get almost 10 years of free trades, then I'll get free Sc...
by bgf
Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scottrade to TDA
Replies: 24
Views: 1942

Re: Scottrade to TDA

My current plan is to wait until my bonuses hit their one-year anniversaries and then transfer my accounts to Merrill Edge. My research shows you'll get free trades if your accounts total $250K or more, and if you ask they'll even reimburse you the transfer fee(s). Plus they offer a cash bonus, unl...
by bgf
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.
Replies: 19
Views: 2553

Re: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.

"From my understanding, investing in an index fund representing the market will mean that we will get average returns. That means that there are people achieving lesser and greater returns." By investing in a market cap weighted index (the most common kind of index) you are getting the weighted aver...
by bgf
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5322

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Laddering does provide flexibility, but it's not a free lunch. The shorter durations pay very low interest rates. VMLUX pays so little I'm not even sure it's justified over a saving's account, except it's tax exempt. It's probably barely keeping pace with inflation now also. Philosophically, I don'...
by bgf
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5322

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Dude seriously?!?!? This guy has 30 million dollars in assets. He has no worries. think of it as a daydreaming exercise! As others have said, the 3 fund portfolio works with extra zeros on the assets as well. I think I could be happy with a 3 fund of my own with $30 million at this stage in my life...
by bgf
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5322

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

Dude seriously?!?!? This guy has 30 million dollars in assets. He has no worries. think of it as a daydreaming exercise! As others have said, the 3 fund portfolio works with extra zeros on the assets as well. I think I could be happy with a 3 fund of my own with $30 million at this stage in my life...
by bgf
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5322

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

pennywise wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:40 pm
Dude seriously?!?!? This guy has 30 million dollars in assets. He has no worries.
think of it as a daydreaming exercise!
by bgf
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5322

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

i do not think that his $30m should be invested like my $300k... with that kind of wealth, he has access to diversified investments that i do not, e.g., VC and PE. if he doesn't like what he is getting, he can 1) wait, or 2) go with different funds. allocations to VC and PE are probably a good thing...
by bgf
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scottrade to TDA
Replies: 24
Views: 1942

Re: Scottrade to TDA

i doubt it as well. i am considering sending everything to Schwab. I've had Scottrade for years, but depending on how things turn out with TDA, unless they are incredible, I'll probably consolidate with Schwab (and i think they are giving our really good incentives, free trades for example).
by bgf
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pile of Cash - What to do
Replies: 25
Views: 2978

Re: Pile of Cash - What to do

invest it like the rest of your portfolio. the current state of the market should not affect your decision. no one has any idea whether the market is currently cheap, expensive, or neither. we'll only know after the fact.
by bgf
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why pay cash for a car?
Replies: 179
Views: 15160

Re: Why pay cash for a car?

can you get rates that low on used cars? I dont think so. So your point is look for rebates and pay cash? personally, given my current net worth, I would only ever buy a used car. if i could buy a used car and borrow at < 1.0%... then maybe I would actually put up with the payment for 2-3 years and...
by bgf
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Florida slip & fall advice? Helping my parents
Replies: 11
Views: 915

Re: Florida slip & fall advice? Helping my parents

If the premises owner offered $250k already, then THEY NEED TO GET A GOOD LAWYER IMMEDIATELY. You should have no problem getting an excellent attorney. Make sure that this attorney has extensive jury trial experience in personal injury cases. Many personal injury attorneys only settle cases and neve...
by bgf
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Opinions and Tax Efficiency
Replies: 11
Views: 1206

Re: Portfolio Opinions and Tax Efficiency

you make $115k pretax, with a mortgage, and you save $6k per month? wow, that is impressive. overall, i like your allocation. I know the poster above said that you have maybe too little bond exposure, but you also have a rental property, which, so long as it remains rented and profitable, should pro...
by bgf
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Magic Formula works or ever worked for you?
Replies: 39
Views: 10068

Re: Does Magic Formula works or ever worked for you?

I've read his book and enjoyed it. I use his screener as a starting point for stock selection. I do not practice his overall strategy. So far the stocks I have chosen from his screener over the years include: Ebix - by far my best performer, have continually bought over the years and never sold a sh...
by bgf
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 35 yr-old doc needs some wisdom
Replies: 49
Views: 10983

Re: 35 yr-old doc needs some wisdom

wow, a top tax bracket income solves so many problems. my initial reaction was that your net worth is crazy crazy low given your income. you are throwing away $12000 a year on a lease with a net worth of like ~$250k... but then I look at your income and... it just doesn't matter. it just doesn't. y...
by bgf
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?
Replies: 20
Views: 1835

Re: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?

i recommend you read the series of blog posts on Passive Investing here:

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/05/passive/

I think there are 4 of them.