Search found 629 matches

by bgf
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7807
Views: 1602951

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

With most major indices currently down about 6-12%, there certainly is a lot of hand wringing. If they go down 30-60%, then I expect a little more complaining. Every time the market goes down, always a lot of chatter. When the market goes up, very few complain. RM still plenty complaining about hav...
by bgf
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7807
Views: 1602951

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

really starting to think the ancient Greeks had it nailed. its just more fun to talk about earthly events as the outcome of bickering amongst the gods. instead of us mere mortals wasting our time talking about interest rates, the Fed, China deceleration, Hurricane whatever, deficits, trade wars etc....
by bgf
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors
Replies: 15
Views: 2832

Re: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors

Thank you for sharing. The article's points are poorly explained (the author must be a finance professor!), but there are a few basic truths in there that are worth repeating... I agree in large part: I’m not sure what the market is like for a paper like this. Feels more like a pet project than som...
by bgf
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors
Replies: 15
Views: 2832

Re: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors

15, 16, and 17 were both great.

by the way, sounds like an equal weight small cap fund would be more popular. i could only find EWSC...
by bgf
Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1785

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

New ETF launched about a month ago. Goal is to participate in 70% of the market (total US market) movement via use of leaps (10% of assets) and then have exposure to long treasuries (90% of dollars invested) for the balance of the portfolio. Ignoring the lack of international diversification, this ...
by bgf
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1785

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

and you can vary your "leverage" not just by how you allocate but also by how deep in or out of the money your call is... the more in the money, the less leverage and the more money you have to pay in premium up front (less for treasuries) but the less likely your option will expire worthless...
by bgf
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dependent Care FSA - Question
Replies: 10
Views: 437

Re: Dependent Care FSA - Question

to piggy back on this thread because this is also my first year using a dependent care account, should i be on the lookout for the tax document from the daycare or from the dependent care account service provider? anyone know what the tax document it titled?
by bgf
Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7201

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:06 pm
If it's calculated based on net income instead of gross income, then our savings rate is going to be 0% forever, despite contributing to a 401k, Roth 403b, a 457, and a pension.
your contributions are savings. your taxes and expenses are not.
by bgf
Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to splurge. MB E class, BMW 5 or Audi 6?
Replies: 70
Views: 5924

Re: Time to splurge. MB E class, BMW 5 or Audi 6?

ooo, id get a black Cadillac CT6 with SuperCruise.
by bgf
Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7201

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

the answer to this question depends on your purpose in calculating it. if you are calculating it for comparative purposes, it seems like using gross is the most expedient. personally, i don't care how much other people save, especially when they are using their gross income as that amount. a single ...
by bgf
Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teaching kids there is an ample amount of money
Replies: 108
Views: 7849

Re: Teaching kids there is ample amount of money

I don't want my kids to think there is an ample amount of money from Mom and Dad, but there is an ample amount of money in the world for blessed people who have solid values. I think it would especially hit home on a family trip to a 3rd world country and seeing people living in shacks. you might w...
by bgf
Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 106
Views: 11635

Re: Diversification Regret

"Tracking error" regret is a real risk (Larry Swedroe 2012) ... Unfortunately, my experiences as both an investor and advisor have taught me that diversification isn't truly a free lunch for most investors -- with it comes the very real risk known as "tracking error regret." Tracking error is defin...
by bgf
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run
Replies: 72
Views: 5874

Re: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run

i see one asset that never returned less than 2.5% real and another asset the often returned less than 2.5% real and for a good chunk had negative real returns.
by bgf
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17069

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

The Kelly Criterion and The Stock Market ...For the 59 year period from 1926 to 1984... if we assume that annual excess returns are indepently distributed... taking into account the time value of money (but neglecting transaction fees and taxes), each year the Kelly-optimal investor should be willi...
by bgf
Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17069

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

Why stop at 100%? You can get 10x the exposure by just buying Dec 2020 at the money SPY calls. May as well go heavy. What happens if the market drops 50%? The above seems more like a short term punt. I was being rather sarcastic... but still the point is 100% is pretty arbitrary. If OP doesn't beli...
by bgf
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2001
Views: 372036

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

down almost 9% in October alone. down around 7% for the year now. my portfolio looks to be setting up for a good run in 2019 but who knows? best performer YTD: BRK.B 4.1% worst performer: EBIX -25.8% (dropped nearly 30% in October YIKES!) those positions are only 6-7% each. gross majority is in US T...
by bgf
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax refunds expected to be 26% more in 2019
Replies: 52
Views: 5680

Re: Tax refunds expected to be 26% more in 2019

ive estimated it, and we thankfully wont be getting a refund. god i hate getting refunds.

this year it took until just a few weeks ago for me to receive my state refund... ridiculous.
by bgf
Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7807
Views: 1602951

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

MJW wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:36 pm
Seeing more threads of posters wanting reassurance or asking if they should change something. Makes me wonder what it will be like around here when something really happens.
people won't be waiting around for answers...
by bgf
Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8409

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

~30 years to traditional retirement 0% allocation to bonds i'll invest in government bonds when their coupon approaches the return on equity of the companies i own in my equity portfolio. right now VT (Vanguard Total World), which is my equity benchmark, is showing a 13.5% return on equity. this is ...
by bgf
Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9280

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works

As of 2018, US stocks represent half of the world's stocks. Throw in the current 90% correlation between US and ex-US stocks, or even the 67% historical correlation (1970-2014), and a US-only investor is holding something roughly equivalent to 83% of the stocks in all of the worlds' markets. wow, t...
by bgf
Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9280

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works

Currency exposure is a risk without any expected returns, as most studies show currency exposure over short term can be anywhere while long term they could even out. That means at best over long periods returns from currency is zero, but the risk remains there, and the added volatility. I have not ...
by bgf
Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7807
Views: 1602951

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

imagine if stocks were only open for trading once a year on july 1. would you really be concerned about your investments right now? no, no you would not. you wouldnt even be thinking about it because you cant do anything until july 1, 2019 to do anything about it. never let stock prices alone inform...
by bgf
Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9280

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works

i dont invest in international markets because of historical, present, or future correlations, standard deviations, or variance. i invest in them for the same reason i invest in the US market: i want to be a partial owner of all those businesses. at the end of the day, thats all we are doing - inves...
by bgf
Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?
Replies: 77
Views: 4730

Re: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?

it already isn't much of an achievement right now. i say that as a person who does not yet have a net worth of one million, but i dont think its really anything impressive. you can go back a century now to when being a millionaire really meant something originally. that's a long time.
by bgf
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?
Replies: 5
Views: 543

Re: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?

I was hoping to find an answer to a question that has been bugging me lately. I noticed that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is the 5th largest holding in VTSAX. I also know that this company holds a lot of Apple and other major US companies which are also in the top holdings. My question is, because compa...
by bgf
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta
Replies: 5
Views: 699

Re: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta

can you frame this as a kelly criterion question? size of bet in relation to bankroll would be size of allocation to single stock in relation to equity allocation. determine the odds of the stock outperforming over a time period and and your expectation of the excess return. this should spit out a p...
by bgf
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can't immediately exchange ETF for another? (Merrill Edge)
Replies: 10
Views: 541

Re: Can't immediately exchange ETF for another? (Merrill Edge)

i just did this in my merril edge account last week. VTI --> ITOT, VWO --> IEMG, and VEU --> IXUS. i sold my shares (selected specific tax lots) then immediately bought new ones. no problem at all.
by bgf
Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4432

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

there is no logical inconsistency or contradiction between investing in index funds and also claiming that stocks can be bought "on sale" from time to time. OK, please explain. To restate my position, for stocks to be "on sale" this means one can figure out that the market has mispriced stocks. If ...
by bgf
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9853

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. T...
by bgf
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4432

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

He speaks of the dividend discount theory and rising rates. Yet rates did not rise suddenly overnight to justify the drop on Wednesday morning in US stock prices. Are you sure? Unpack the dividend discount model. The P/E ratio of a stock is driven by the driven by the difference in the "Required Re...
by bgf
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4432

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

price and value are not the same thing. over long periods of time, the market price tends to track the value of a company (its earnings power), but there are certainly times when price and value diverge, sometimes by a great deal. that is all Buffett means by "buying stocks on sale." he is buying a ...
by bgf
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7807
Views: 1602951

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

As it turns out, most of the time there have been 3%+ market losses they occurred when the market was doing a larger correction. So, it probably isn't over yet folks, even if there is a bounce - duck and cover! Unfortunately, 3%+ down days tend to occur during market sell-offs. I looked back at eve...
by bgf
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9853

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. T...
by bgf
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3647

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

In expectation, a typical customer will LOSE money. And gladly, in most cases. Can you imagine "improving your return"? I'll schedule a major accident every year so the insurance company doesn't "make money" off of me. insurance underwriting is not as profitable as many make it seem on this board. ...
by bgf
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3647

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

...The OP does not mention a cash account. Therefore, if you lose a weekly bet, you have to withdraw stocks or bonds to pay the bet. If you win the weekly bet, you have to buy stocks or bonds... Something like this is a good exercise in the difficulty of formulating a precise questions. Yes, as I'd...
by bgf
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3647

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

in the OP, there was no mention of rebalancing. in the clarification post, the rebalancing refers to within the 60-40 split, performed monthly. this is why I specifically stated that the investor had to choose and set aside an amount, at the outset, sufficient to cover the back and forth payments f...
by bgf
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3647

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

there is no rebalancing between the "coin flip asset" and the rest of your portfolio, so it is as simple as saying you are setting aside a certain amount of cash ($5,000, $10,000, or whatever you think is sufficient to cover a really bad run at coin flips, i guess this is a personal decision based ...
by bgf
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3647

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

Which of the following is true? b) The coin-flip has exactly no effect on your long-term risk, return, or risk-adjusted return. Of course, over any short period of time, or even over the entire twenty years, one or the other of you will be an overall winner and the other will be an overall loser, b...
by bgf
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 3272

Re: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio

i think the price action of one of my individual stocks today is apropos... it dropped 20%; started bad and only got worse. it was i think 7-7.5% of my portfolio prior to today's open, and it is 6.1% now. so, the whole 'be prepared to lose 20% in one day' thing came true for me today. i was prepared...
by bgf
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?
Replies: 56
Views: 7751

Re: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?

I just don't really "get" FIRE. Is your job that awful, or is it just plain burn out? I can understand wanting to load up retirement early to take pressure off but throwing in the towel completely at 40? Seems like almost wasteful to me as you obviously have talents to command that salary. this sen...
by bgf
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 3272

Re: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio

the problem is that most people can't buy some stocks and hold them for 20 years. they end up buying and selling around positions, closing out some entirely, buying some new ones along the way, etc. every time you jump around like this i think you decrease your odds of success. I don't know if anyt...
by bgf
Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: another replacement stock/wash sale question
Replies: 7
Views: 335

Re: another replacement stock/wash sale question

iceport, thank you for the response. ive actually read the BH wiki and the fairmark site as well as some others but still wasn't sure... my gut was that i would create a wash sale, as you said, which is why i posted in the first place. i just wasnt sure whether i totally understood the concept/defin...
by bgf
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: another replacement stock/wash sale question
Replies: 7
Views: 335

another replacement stock/wash sale question

my question is whether my recent Roth IRA purchase will create a wash sale or if they won't because they aren't "replacement stock." these are the lots in my taxable account. last column is loss. 8/28/18 ST VWO 28 shares $105 12/13/17 ST VWO 45 shares $240 9/29/17 LT VWO 5 shares $22 6/30/17 LT VWO ...
by bgf
Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20 countries where 200K in retirement savings will last you decades
Replies: 75
Views: 9115

Re: 20 countries where 200K in retirement savings will last you decades

3504PIR wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:29 pm
Next time you’re in a mall
what's a mall?
by bgf
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP
Replies: 21
Views: 1263

Re: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP

the stock market involves market participants who act upon their imperfect knowledge of the past and present as well as their expectations of the future. the market participants affect market prices through buying and selling based on their imperfect knowledge. equally as important, the prices thems...
by bgf
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What purchase saved you the most money?
Replies: 136
Views: 12890

Re: What purchase saved you the most money?

buying used cars rather than buying new/leasing what we "could afford." ditto for buying a house sufficient for our family needs but well within what we "could afford."
by bgf
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7807
Views: 1602951

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:14 pm
I did get a couple of notices of dividends paid recently.
i of course used most of mine to buy emerging markets YESTERDAY. of course.
by bgf
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105661

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

the mods should rename this thread "20+ pages of adults playing with charts"
by bgf
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 3272

Re: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio

i think if you are going to outperform the market then the likeliest path for you to do so is to supplement a core holding of index funds with a selection of stocks that you think will grow earnings faster than the market over the next 10-20 years or so. i prefer this method to the 'factor investing...