Search found 211 matches

by bgf
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 125
Views: 6931

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

The market always recovers on its own. A burned down house never recovers on its own. I think there's a fallacy in this line of thinking. Every day when you don't sell your portfolio you're re-buying it. Money is money. If you lose $120K because of a 12% decline in stocks or because your $120K hous...
by bgf
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance
Replies: 125
Views: 6931

Re: I'm Cancelling My Home Insurance

not saying OP feels this way, but from so many posts on insurance, i get the feeling people generally think that insurance is a rip off. its my understanding that with commodity insurance, such as home, auto, life, the rates are incredibly competitive. there is a low barrier to entry in the commodit...
by bgf
Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260942

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

lostdog wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:46 pm
Anyone here admit to emotional selling during that dip?
i did some emotional buying of one of my core individual stocks. no selling.
by bgf
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge -- Please Help Me Identify Low Expense Funds
Replies: 2
Views: 163

Re: Merrill Edge -- Please Help Me Identify Low Expense Funds

if you are getting that large of a bonus then i assume you also have the platinum honors rewards. you will get 100 free traders per month which means that ETFs cost you nothing but the expense ratios.

Total World - VT

Total US - VTI
SP500 - VOO

International Developed - VEA
Emerging Markets - VWO
by bgf
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net Worth: How Am I Doing?
Replies: 7
Views: 1580

Re: Net Worth: How Am I Doing?

emergency fund might be a little low.
by bgf
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 56
Views: 6271

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

I'm at 55-45, with 5% US REITs and 5% Int'l REITs included. the remaining 40% of Int'l is split equally between developed and emerging.

in anti-bogle fashion, part of my US allocation includes some individual stocks.
by bgf
Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2009

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

... Re: 4) The claim that available information is not as well reflected in the prices of international companies compared to US companies is not supported here. I'm open to hearing more. But then I'd like to see comparisons across all countries and not just US versus everyone else lumped together....
by bgf
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260942

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

29 here, just sold half IRA and 15K of stock today still have ~50K in stock i am all equity/stock, i have nothing to fear with 30 years down the road till retirement Huh?! You cashed out 15K of stock after a 10% decline, because you have 30 years of time and nothing to fear? Those seem mutually exc...
by bgf
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2009

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

The best reason that I have seen is simply that it is not necessary to hold foreign stocks, for various reasons. Your investing results may be similar either way. Another reason that it is not necessary is that many large U.S. companies are essentially multinational. Many international companies de...
by bgf
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question First Time Selling Shares SpecID - Selling at a Loss
Replies: 18
Views: 703

Re: Question First Time Selling Shares SpecID - Selling at a Loss

I would tax-loos harvest all shares that have a loss. Money for college can be spent, but the remainder should be re-invested back into something similar, but not substantially identical. I'm going to look into loans instead as I don't really want to remove any money from my account. At least I am ...
by bgf
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1752
Views: 311647

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

-3.1% 100% equities
by bgf
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question First Time Selling Shares SpecID - Selling at a Loss
Replies: 18
Views: 703

Re: Question First Time Selling Shares SpecID - Selling at a Loss

I would tax-loos harvest all shares that have a loss. Money for college can be spent, but the remainder should be re-invested back into something similar, but not substantially identical. I'm going to look into loans instead as I don't really want to remove any money from my account. At least I am ...
by bgf
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggest coffee maker please
Replies: 98
Views: 5348

Re: Suggest coffee maker please

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B000CNY6UK/ref=asc_df_B0000CF3Q65365062/?tag=hyprod-20&creative=394997&creativeASIN=B0000CF3Q6&linkCode=df0&hvadid=167144008776&hvpos=1o1&hvnetw=g&hvrand=3816928350096523543&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9011440&hvtargid=pla-288556925991&th=1 u...
by bgf
Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260942

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Marking the Top: “We are in this Goldilocks period right now. Inflation isn’t a problem. Growth is good, everything is pretty good with a big jolt of stimulation coming from changes in tax laws” “If you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid” ~ Ray Dalio BRKA/B has 20bil cash on hand. ...
by bgf
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 3616

Re: Market Timing

I dare say that there are close to zero investors with stock exposure that are not being influenced to some degree by historical data. It might be as simple as in determining how much they need to invest over time in order to 'likely' achieve their goals, but the impact is still there. I haven't se...
by bgf
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 3616

Re: Market Timing--What Experts Say

Dillinger: Read what experts say about market-timing: I have personally studied this issue. I downloaded my own data, I coded my own programs, and I back tested my simple system. A simple double moving average crossover system works. And the reason it works is because it reflects market psychology ...
by bgf
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 3616

Re: Market Timing

back testing is a completely pointless exercise. 100% totally pointless. So how do you determine how much you need to save to achieve your investment goals (e.g. retirement)? Without at least an estimate of returns, it's impossible to determine this. And every estimate of returns is based on backte...
by bgf
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merrill Lynch site crashed today (VG fine)
Replies: 20
Views: 1401

Re: Merrill Lynch site crashed today (VG fine)

the risks we're are all exposed to are unavoidable systemic risks. whether they are failures of this system or that system, this market or that market, this broker or that broker, this currency or that currency, etc. a crashing brokerage firm is one example of these systemic risks. these systemic pr...
by bgf
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 3616

Re: Market Timing

decades ago, hedge funds with massive computing power and far better data than you were using black boxes, genetic algorithms, and all kinds of crap that you can't even read about yet to find patterns in securities returns across world markets. these are highly competitive with each other and highly...
by bgf
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Market Timing (RMT)
Replies: 6
Views: 698

Re: Reverse Market Timing (RMT)

i agree with pajamas take. as for what you should do, just keep doing what you've been doing. do you pay any transaction costs on those weekly purchases? if so, you might not need to make so many... once a month is probably plenty.
by bgf
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 30300

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Admiral wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:08 am
nick2302 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:04 am
Admiral, Don't mean to argue but my accounts were not 50K higher 5 weeks ago? They are much more down than that.
I have no idea what's in your accounts.

On Dec 30 the S&P was at 2673. It's now 2648, a difference of 27 points.
VT i think is down just a hair from the 2017 close.
by bgf
Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation inclusion question
Replies: 10
Views: 451

Re: Asset allocation inclusion question

Exclude your home and your Emergency Fund. College savings/529 probably too. All other cash, stocks, bonds, CDs, I bonds should be considered part of your asset allocation. why exclude the 529? i include that one in my allocation... What if your kids are in college and those funds are now "safe". T...
by bgf
Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation inclusion question
Replies: 10
Views: 451

Re: Asset allocation inclusion question

bloom2708 wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:49 pm
Exclude your home and your Emergency Fund. College savings/529 probably too.

All other cash, stocks, bonds, CDs, I bonds should be considered part of your asset allocation.
why exclude the 529? i include that one in my allocation...
by bgf
Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Vanderbilts
Replies: 26
Views: 3951

Re: The Vanderbilts

"After adjusting for inflation, the $200 million Vanderbilt fortune would be worth roughly $5 billion in 2017 dollars." I hate simple calculations like that. The Vanderbilts were far far far wealthier in comparison to their contemporaries than someone with $5 billion would be today... That's actual...
by bgf
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Interest 1098
Replies: 3
Views: 247

Re: Mortgage Interest 1098

Sounds to me like you made a payment that either didn't hit the books in 2017 or was an ineligible extra payment. Just a guess Hmm. The difference between the two numbers is $388.02, which is the exact amount of interest I paid on my first payment of 2017. I am guessing that they aren't counting th...
by bgf
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Interest 1098
Replies: 3
Views: 247

Mortgage Interest 1098

Anyone know why my actual/gross interest paid ($4,462.54) is different from the mortgage interest received ($4,074.52) under Interest Reconciliation?

I actually paid $4,462.54, but why can I only deduct $4,074.52?
by bgf
Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Vanderbilts
Replies: 26
Views: 3951

Re: The Vanderbilts

"After adjusting for inflation, the $200 million Vanderbilt fortune would be worth roughly $5 billion in 2017 dollars." I hate simple calculations like that. The Vanderbilts were far far far wealthier in comparison to their contemporaries than someone with $5 billion would be today... That kind of i...
by bgf
Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pulling the plug on Scottrade
Replies: 21
Views: 2097

Re: Pulling the plug on Scottrade

Merrill Edge is also good with Preferred Rewards. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/posting.php?mode=reply&f=1&t=239324 I'll second this, also cash bonuses for the transfer and would probably cover the transfer fee (look like not a problem in the near term, but for posterity). i asked merrill edge t...
by bgf
Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 PE ratio discrepency
Replies: 7
Views: 661

Re: S&P 500 PE ratio discrepency

are you referring to the fact that they do not include negative earnings? that makes sense to me. it is possible for a company to incur billions in negative earnings, but the stock can never drop below 0. this is actually one of the reasons why PE10 is so screwy due to the financial crisis. the PE ...
by bgf
Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 PE ratio discrepency
Replies: 7
Views: 661

Re: S&P 500 PE ratio discrepency

Why the difference? Because of methodology differences in the way such ratio is computed. Please check this wiki page . And yes, you can roll your eyes at the change Vanguard introduced in June 2017. :( are you referring to the fact that they do not include negative earnings? that makes sense to me...
by bgf
Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1752
Views: 311647

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

over 5%. this month our portfolio has gone up by double our monthly gross income. by far the single largest one month increase for us.
by bgf
Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gains/Overhauling Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 458

Re: Capital Gains/Overhauling Portfolio

40 stocks is a lot of stocks. you don't have a ton of idiosyncratic risk there. in fact, i would doubt that, after the transaction fees and capital gains eat away at the portfolio, an index fund could be expected to make up all that lost ground. it seems like selling all those stocks just to utiliz...
by bgf
Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gains/Overhauling Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 458

Re: Capital Gains/Overhauling Portfolio

40 stocks is a lot of stocks. you don't have a ton of idiosyncratic risk there. in fact, i would doubt that, after the transaction fees and capital gains eat away at the portfolio, an index fund could be expected to make up all that lost ground. it seems like selling all those stocks just to utilize...
by bgf
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 278
Views: 50220

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

S&P might make up the difference or it might not. Also for those who've been shoveling rebalancing money into their EM allocation in the down years have done exceedingly well. +1 I've continuously held a separate emerging markets position since the summer of 1998. (I felt like an idiot for the firs...
by bgf
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 77
Views: 9083

Re: The Power of Working Longer

They're assuming your savings earns 0% real over the years you save. Constant returns, 𝑟, assumed to be zero So yes, if you are 100% in CDs, you're likely going to get a big benefit from simply working longer. Another big assumption is that the day you retire, you put 100% of your savings into an a...
by bgf
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 169
Views: 31503

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

100-0 All U.S. Portfolio! I followed Jack's advice and get my international through the S&P or Total Market Index. The accidental tourist if you will. +1 same here. Huh. So how much US exposure do you reckon you'd get by investing in Toyota, Samsung, Tencent, Mercedes Benz, etc. in their currencies...
by bgf
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 1821

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

1) What is the data that would lead to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis has been falsified? Seriously falsified, not just slightly falsified? 2) What are the specific things that are impossible if the EMH is correct, but possible if it is incorrect? 3) How could a Norman Rockwell...
by bgf
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 1821

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

One problem that hasn't been discussed is the difference between a stock price being rationally set relative to other stocks and the general price level of the market. It's very likely that individual stock prices relative to each other are set very rationally because the information relevant to a ...
by bgf
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 1821

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

Define "rational". Every trade involves both a buyer and a seller. Which one of them is irrational? Ron traditional economics defines "rational" as the ability to accurately and immediately calculate probabilities to make the decision that maximizes one's utility even when confronted with uncertain...
by bgf
Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 169
Views: 31503

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

100-0 All U.S. Portfolio! I followed Jack's advice and get my international through the S&P or Total Market Index. The accidental tourist if you will. +1 same here. Huh. So how much US exposure do you reckon you'd get by investing in Toyota, Samsung, Tencent, Mercedes Benz, etc. in their currencies?
by bgf
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost money through Bitconnect scam - learned my lesson
Replies: 94
Views: 7605

Re: Lost money through Bitconnect scam - learned my lesson

I’ve been living the Boglehead life for the past 6-7 years. Three fund portfolio and have stuck to the plan. I’ve also made a lot of money so my net worth has risen substantially from income and investments. More money just meant more savings and I’ve also been paying down my mortgage. Until Januar...
by bgf
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2360

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

EMH is like high school physics; it provides a solution to a problem but only by assuming interactions happen in a vacuum without friction... if anything crypto is proof against EMH. the volatility inherent over time shows that buyers and sellers are not acting in concert to assimilate all informati...
by bgf
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 32
Views: 2181

Re: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?

4. For 2017, my drips with my computershare account returned 22.3% including a 3.8% yield (portfolio of Verizon, Phillip Morris, Altria, Abbot Labs and Abbvie). I had built this lineup based on being lower risk, higher yield. It helped that Abbot and Abbvie had a really good year, just lucky I gues...
by bgf
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 62340

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

complex derivatives + leverage + global interdependent financial institutions + fraud = we still survived
by bgf
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much cash/bonds does Buffett's Berkshire own in percentage of its total portfolio?
Replies: 10
Views: 1101

Re: How much cash/bonds does Buffett's Berkshire own in percentage of its total portfolio?

this probably isn't the best forum for that discussion. if you are really interested in berkshire, then read the annual reports, which are all provided on the website. also, there are tons of good blogs and articles that have broken down and attempted to value berkshire hathaway... cornerofberkshire...
by bgf
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 32
Views: 2181

Re: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?

4. For 2017, my drips with my computershare account returned 22.3% including a 3.8% yield (portfolio of Verizon, Phillip Morris, Altria, Abbot Labs and Abbvie). I had built this lineup based on being lower risk, higher yield. It helped that Abbot and Abbvie had a really good year, just lucky I gues...
by bgf
Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27155

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Despite crying in my root beer all weekend over a portfolio return of "only" 15.01%, I can't help but notice the tremendous power of this bull market. Since July 2013, I have been mildly rebalancing from stocks to bonds. It seems like all I have been doing has been hitting the "sell" button, sellin...
by bgf
Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27155

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Despite crying in my root beer all weekend over a portfolio return of "only" 15.01%, I can't help but notice the tremendous power of this bull market. Since July 2013, I have been mildly rebalancing from stocks to bonds. It seems like all I have been doing has been hitting the "sell" button, sellin...