Search found 919 matches

by bgf
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 204
Views: 16411

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

The dollar has value because the us govt can defend it with the us military. Cryptos have value because they don't need to be defended in the first place. I think cryptos are here to stay and I'll buy more most likely. I don't think that's why the dollar has value... The reason the dollar has value...
by bgf
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 204
Views: 16411

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

until people shift from talking about how great bitcoin is because of its price to talking about how much they love using bitcoin, im not interested in it.

i can make/lose a lot of money in lots of dumb ways. bitcoin is just one of many right now.
by bgf
Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate stock picking performance?
Replies: 34
Views: 1375

Re: How to calculate stock picking performance?

the most accurate way to do this is to create a benchmark portfolio of VTI. take your starting portfolio value of your stock picks and create a benchmark portfolio containing only VTI, with whatever little cash left over. whenever you contribute or withdraw from your stockpicking portfolio, mirror t...
by bgf
Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs: MILN
Replies: 7
Views: 550

Re: The Case Against ETFs: MILN

nope. just buy VT. or VTI and VXUS. or VTI and VEU. or VTI and VEA and VWO. or just VTI. or just VOO. literally no one here will argue that ALL ETFs are good. nor would anyone here argue that ALL MUTUAL FUNDs are good. you have to bring a little bit of reason to this discussion. also, in before the ...
by bgf
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 9646

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

I have a question for people on both sides of this issue. What would it take to change your mind? Or to put it scientifically, what would it take to falsify your theory? i invest in them because they exist. but, i guess, more fundamental than that, is the assumption that long term compound returns ...
by bgf
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 9646

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

yes, you should. in fact, i think everyone should. we should shut down all the other stock markets. no need for any stock market other than the exchanges here in the US. everyone else is just silly investing in all those other companies. It would certainly remove the barriers that are different exp...
by bgf
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 9646

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

yes, you should. in fact, i think everyone should. we should shut down all the other stock markets. no need for any stock market other than the exchanges here in the US.

everyone else is just silly investing in all those other companies.
by bgf
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 220
Views: 14800

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

one of my holdings, EBIX, dropped by as much as 20% today, and absolutely nobody knows why. not even the company, which issued this press release. https://www.ebix.com/press-release/ebix-not-aware-of-any-news-events-tariffs-that-would-negatively-impact-its-business-for-todays-abnormal-trading-activi...
by bgf
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7378

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

are we safely using the assumption of normality or not? With respect to OLS specifically, normality is not assumed. There are other places in financial economics where that assumption IS used to simplify theoretical proofs or empirical tests. But not in least squares regression. modern financial th...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7378

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

are we safely using the assumption of normality or not? With respect to OLS specifically, normality is not assumed. There are other places in financial economics where that assumption IS used to simplify theoretical proofs or empirical tests. But not in least squares regression. modern financial th...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7378

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

now we're getting somewhere. what distribution is assumed? power law? cauchy? do they just use one or do they somehow incorporate multiple? There is no assumption about distributions: least squares regression is completely agnostic about the distribution of underlying data. There ARE some other rel...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7378

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

BGF The problem with your argument is that they are in fact different things, with unique sources of risk, which is why they are included in asset pricing models that explain the variation of returns of diversified portfolios. And they are even different across asset classes, so value and momentum ...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7378

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

the method of least sqaures only works if your data is normally distributed. This isn't actually true. A least squares regression has no requirements, explicit or implicit, that require the data have a Gaussian or any other type of distribution. now we're getting somewhere. what distribution is ass...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7378

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Nedsaid Think viniez answered your question. And it doesn't matter if .41 or .42 anyway, it matters that you have more of a risk parity approach. Note pretty smart people like David Swensen and Ray Dalio invest this way! And no you don't need to use such a high tilt, there are trade offs though, th...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7378

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

i apologize, but i see stuff like "0.41 market beta, 0.31 on size, 0.26 on value" and red flags pop up. the method and tools at your disposal are incapable of supporting such a conclusion. 0.41 market beta? not 0.42? not 0.40? i just can't buy it. i can't. The factor loadings you mention are simply...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds [or vs. venture capital]
Replies: 33
Views: 2381

Re: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds

I wonder, how do bogleheads explain the differences between different types of investors. Obviously getting steady rates per year is nice. But it seems it's ignoring growth "hedge funds", people investing in new ideas, possibly creating new industry segments, and taking great percentages on their i...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7378

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

nedsaid, very much disagree with this statement but I have seen that you need shorting to isolate the factors from market beta to get a source of return that doesn't correlate to the US Stock Market And easy to show it's wrong. Here's example with start date the inception of the DFA SV fund in Apri...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [ETF vs. Mutual Fund questions]
Replies: 33
Views: 1341

Re: which is better ETF or MF ???

22twain wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:01 am
bgf wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:54 am
its probably one of the least important decisions you'll make with respect to investing.
And the least important decisions tend to lead to the most heated arguments, as the thread linked in a previous post demonstrates. :wink:
i will NEVER get that time back...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [ETF vs. Mutual Fund questions]
Replies: 33
Views: 1341

Re: which is better ETF or MF ???

Hi all What is the bottom line, all ETF or all mutual fund as once portfolio? Is tax saving is better for ETF than MF or index tracking?. I never learn ----any comments or thoughts. Thank you in advance this is a place to come and learn, and i dont want to downplay your question, but its probably o...
by bgf
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

i dont know the right answer either way, but it seemed to me vineviz was stating that BND was more liquid and thus more sensitive to real time price changes in relation to NAV and the mutual fund equivalent. presenting charts showing a discrepancy between BND and NAV isnt disproving vineviz, thats ...
by bgf
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

It's not clear to me what evidence you are asking for. What are you claiming is "incorrect"? Perhaps this meets the challenge :?: : http://i.imgur.com/O6eAQjC.png http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=BND®ion=USA&culture=en_US YES! Excellent. Thank you. Would have b...
by bgf
Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice
Replies: 81
Views: 8560

Re: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice

i just want to reiterate that whatever got into your head to make you think you can beat the market based on youtube videos and half cocked assumptions about bull/bear market durations needs to be killed immediately, with extreme prejudice. buy stocks or dont. but for the love of BHs everywhere, don...
by bgf
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starbucks; buy, sell, hold?
Replies: 41
Views: 3215

Re: Starbucks; buy, sell, hold?

you've held sbux for 10 years and its only 2% of your holdings? you never sold a share? did you never buy more either?

i'd just let it lie, neither buy nor sell. do nothing.
by bgf
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

How can MPT be implemented without an estimate of asset prices' variance? And where would such an estimate come from if not historical data? MPT is much more fundamental than many people think it is, and the development and proof of it can bit complex. The core assumption is really only that invest...
by bgf
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

How can MPT be implemented without an estimate of asset prices' variance? And where would such an estimate come from if not historical data? MPT is much more fundamental than many people think it is, and the development and proof of it can bit complex. The core assumption is really only that invest...
by bgf
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

MPT assumes that you can take past price changes of a collection of different securities, for a given period of time, and use statistical tools to maximize or optimize your selection of those securities for a given period of time in the future. This is what I feared: MPT does NOT assume this. Nor d...
by bgf
Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

You operate on the bigger fallacy of uncorrelated "asset classes" boosting risk adjusted returns. You think that the core tenet of modern portfolio theory (and most financial economics) is based on a fallacy? several fallacies really. i do and so do many others. it is no secret that the statistical...
by bgf
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

You operate on the bigger fallacy of uncorrelated "asset classes" boosting risk adjusted returns. You think that the core tenet of modern portfolio theory (and most financial economics) is based on a fallacy? several fallacies really. i do and so do many others. it is no secret that the statistical...
by bgf
Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13237

Re: I'm thinking about buying an exotic supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

this has been a serious question i've had ever since i heard cadillac has their own rental/lease program where you can get a car delivered to your door and pick any car in the lineup for a monthly fee of like $1000-1500. i know there is turo where you can rent an exotic car, and i wonder if there is...
by bgf
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Notify insurance or not?
Replies: 22
Views: 2122

Re: Notify insurance or not?

im sure that your policy states that your duties as an insured are to notify them of accidents. on the other hand, given what you've written, i find it highly unlikely anyone is going to file a claim against you and so your carrier will be none the wiser. depends on how by the book you want to be. i...
by bgf
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18753

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

This is one of those topics that tends to go nowhere. It really comes down to personal preference. but that is going somewhere. many people do not know that it really is a preference; they think there is an objective right or wrong. for a long time, i thought it was objectively better to own a home...
by bgf
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 173
Views: 17776

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years? That's Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund or the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund. What do you think? guyesmith: I have considered simplifying The Three Fund Portfolio to a Two Fund Portfolio (Total World + Total Bond Market). However, keeping Total U...
by bgf
Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How is Merrill Edge?
Replies: 37
Views: 2452

Re: How is Merrill Edge?

using the bank of america cash rewards card makes it great. all my trades are commission free, and i get really good cash back bonus on the credit card. i have no complaints. also, my new 401k will be through ME so that's one less separate account I'll have to log into. now i'll have our taxable, bo...
by bgf
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

However, I will address this point: it is unquestionably true (and empirically observable) that predicting future correlations can be done with MUCH MORE accuracy and precision than predicting future returns. No one is claiming that correlations are invariant. They are not. They are, nonetheless, m...
by bgf
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

any argument founded on the basis of predicting future correlation gets thrown into the same garbage bin as the argument founded on the basis of predicting future return. i see no reason why one should be able to predict future correlation with any more accuracy or precision than future return. this...
by bgf
Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and Investing
Replies: 31
Views: 3433

Re: Bonds and Investing

It might help to think about this. To recover from a -54% loss, a portfolio must grow 117% . To recover from a -35% loss, it must "only" grow 54% . A balanced portfolio dampens the volatility of stocks and also dampens the impact of the usually lower long-term returns of bonds. i think that is the ...
by bgf
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?
Replies: 50
Views: 5519

Re: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?

I'd pay off my house and invest the remainder in VT. it would be pretty cool to enter an order for that many shares :D
by bgf
Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.4 MM net worth to be considered rich ?
Replies: 9
Views: 1720

Re: 2.4 MM net worth to be considered rich ?

i'd say that is a person of means, where i live. i imagine in other areas its bordering on middle class still. you can't be rich when thousands of other rich people have 1000x your wealth.
by bgf
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax deferred equity type investment. Berkshire as option?
Replies: 3
Views: 295

Re: Tax deferred equity type investment. Berkshire as option?

Berkshire is about 7% of my portfolio, and I hold it in my taxable account. Personally, I'm as comfortable with this as my other investments.
by bgf
Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Being a conservative investor is not always a bad thing
Replies: 30
Views: 2260

Re: Being a conservative investor is not always a bad thing

if anything, that shows how weak bonds are. from 1999 to 2009 SP500 returns were negative because your starting point was a bubble, and we experienced one of the worst financial crises in history during that period... nevertheless, bonds only basically matched equity returns... doesn't make me want ...
by bgf
Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How am I doing? (26yo)
Replies: 19
Views: 1815

Re: How am I doing? (26yo)

tea_pirate wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:56 am
bgf wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:43 pm
six figure salary in mid twenties with savings and investments... yep, your life is clearly a dumpster fire.

next.
Ha, you still click on these threads expecting anything other than a 1%er humblebrag?
i know... i just can't help myself.
by bgf
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How am I doing? (26yo)
Replies: 19
Views: 1815

Re: How am I doing? (26yo)

six figure salary in mid twenties with savings and investments... yep, your life is clearly a dumpster fire.

next.
by bgf
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?
Replies: 26
Views: 2196

Re: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?

you don't need any trading at all to own stocks. too few people have ever held a thinly traded stock... the primary problem with that is when you DO want to sell, transaction fees are quite high. other than that, it doesn't matter. the business still does its thing, and you still own it. kind of put...
by bgf
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019
Replies: 125
Views: 9807

Re: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019

net worth -3.6%
portfolio -5.8%
by bgf
Mon May 27, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation to individual stocks/bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 763

Re: Allocation to individual stocks/bonds

i own 3, each about 6-7% of portfolio. remainder is global index fund. berkshire hathaway, markel, and ebix. my monthly retirement contributions are all into the global fund. i only purchase shares of the stocks when certain conditions are met, according to my investment plan. it causes me a bit of ...
by bgf
Fri May 24, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage almost paid off
Replies: 31
Views: 3380

Re: Mortgage almost paid off

And don't forget to call your town assessor office. Make sure you receive paper statement for your property tax bill. If your town has online bill pay, it is quite easy to pay your property tax every quarter online. This assumes the tax bill was being collected via escrow before. That's not always ...
by bgf
Fri May 24, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk
Replies: 68
Views: 4790

Re: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk

Much of this boils down to whether you subjectively believe that the value from adding thousands of additional companies to the thousands you may already own is worth taking on uncompensated currency risk. Some believe it is, and some believe it isn't, but there's no definitive answer. You're not e...
by bgf
Thu May 23, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Tesla Going To Survive?
Replies: 99
Views: 6725

Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

i hope not.
by bgf
Tue May 21, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is an emergency just mental accounting?
Replies: 70
Views: 5666

Re: Is an emergency just mental accounting?

it is ACTUAL accounting. it is an amount of money set aside to cover a short term 3-6 month liability. it needs to be sufficiently liquid to meet the obligations of that liability. this liability is, of course, by definition one that cannot be covered by one's current cash flow. insurance companies ...