Search found 562 matches

by bgf
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 275
Views: 26187

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back ...
by bgf
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3302

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

when people talk about the SP500 like bitcoin or pot stocks, i'll probably take the view they are highly valued.

definitely not the case right now.
by bgf
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 275
Views: 26187

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back ...
by bgf
Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would Stop Orders with ETFs protect against a downturn?
Replies: 21
Views: 1234

Re: Would Stop Orders with ETFs protect against a downturn?

flash crash would result in a loss. real panic would probably result from a liquidity crisis such that your stop loss sell order would not get filled. in other words, you're likely to get stopped out when you dont want (flash crash) and likely to be left holding the bag during a real panic (stop los...
by bgf
Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)
Replies: 29
Views: 1233

Re: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)

WOAH, at the money put options for Jan. '19 are worth over HALF the current share price. the premium for a put option with a $170 strike is currently $88... lolwut.
by bgf
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 33
Views: 5557

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

hdas wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:59 am
Managers Positioning

Image
wow, really shows that for whatever reason markets participants' expectations are crashing through the basement floor with respect to emerging markets. i think those expectations are going to improve over the next few years.

good luck.
by bgf
Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2385

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

the assumption is that you will be required to satisfy some liability at some particular future time. so, say you anticipate having a $50,000 liability 5 years from now. you purchase a bond that pays "x" and matures in 5 years. when that liability comes due in 5 years, you get back the principal and...
by bgf
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area
Replies: 32
Views: 4293

Re: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area

i think at 32 years old with no kids that a net worth of 2x gross income is on the low end. i'd expect closer to $1million net worth with your income, even assuming you had over $100k in law school loans. Most of the lawyers I know are around 27 when they graduate. That means, he/she has been likel...
by bgf
Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area
Replies: 32
Views: 4293

Re: How am I doing? -- 32 y/o lawyer in Bay Area

i think at 32 years old with no kids that a net worth of 2x gross income is on the low end. i'd expect closer to $1million net worth with your income, even assuming you had over $100k in law school loans.
by bgf
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Overnight near Atlanta?
Replies: 30
Views: 1525

Re: Overnight near Atlanta?

I would not stop in Atlanta or in the Atlanta suburbs. In fact, I'd do my best to avoid driving through Atlanta at certain times of day (e.g., 4-7 p.m.). I know traffic is bad during the week, but we would be arriving on Saturday and departing very early Sunday morning. Is that still a problem? Tot...
by bgf
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16797

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

for 2018, 20% of my portfolio is an actual real life bear market (ROOOAR), a larger portion of it is break even. my US Total Market portion is up like double digits. and i have a tiny option position that is up like 1000%. how exactly am i supposed to feel? i see people say stuff like, "wait til pe...
by bgf
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16797

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

for 2018, 20% of my portfolio is an actual real life bear market (ROOOAR), a larger portion of it is break even. my US Total Market portion is up like double digits. and i have a tiny option position that is up like 1000%. how exactly am i supposed to feel? i see people say stuff like, "wait til pe...
by bgf
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16797

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

for 2018, 20% of my portfolio is an actual real life bear market (ROOOAR), a larger portion of it is break even. my US Total Market portion is up like double digits. and i have a tiny option position that is up like 1000%. how exactly am i supposed to feel? i see people say stuff like, "wait til peo...
by bgf
Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11076

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

With all sincerity, it is so cool when someone has the right fit and really thrives and enjoys their work. I like to call that a vocation. It seems fairly rare. Personally, I ended up in law by default because back in the day someone who had high academic performance, at least in my world, gravitat...
by bgf
Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11076

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

I think you made the right choice. Consider had you stayed, you might very well have looked back and asked yourself "I traded X years of freedom for Y dollars or career accomplishment." or maybe your wouldn't have I don't know. I think on balance I did make the right choice but the longer I am reti...
by bgf
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone XS Max
Replies: 186
Views: 10950

Re: iPhone XS Max

The keynote just ended. $1100 for the cheapest iPhone Xs Max at 64 gigabytes of storage. It looks to be negligibly larger in form than a "Plus" model. I do not understand how Apple can continue to raise prices like this, and I'm a huge Apple fan going on 20 years. You can pre order 9/14 and release...
by bgf
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone XS Max
Replies: 186
Views: 10950

Re: iPhone XS Max

The keynote just ended. $1100 for the cheapest iPhone Xs Max at 64 gigabytes of storage. It looks to be negligibly larger in form than a "Plus" model. I do not understand how Apple can continue to raise prices like this, and I'm a huge Apple fan going on 20 years. You can pre order 9/14 and release...
by bgf
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Model 3 Owners: Your experience so far
Replies: 28
Views: 3964

Re: Tesla Model 3 Owners: Your experience so far

InvestoGuy wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:39 pm

> 1. Was it worth the money?
Yes totally. The $7500 federal tax refund and I also get a $4500 rebate from my local utility company gives me a 20% discount on the car. That is awesome and makes it totally worth it.
WOW. $12000 subsidy it better be great value!!
by bgf
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire
Replies: 14
Views: 1240

Re: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire

i think several posters have mentioned BAM. BAM is the third largest holding in MKL's equity portfolio - Berkshire being the largest.

https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=MKL
by bgf
Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire
Replies: 14
Views: 1240

Re: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire

JoMoney wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:05 am
AFLAC
ALLSTATE
AIG
CHUBB
PROGRESSIVE
im not sure if those invest in public equities or other operating companies, which makes them quite unlike berkshire.
by bgf
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of Vanguard's Allocation Chart? Putting the present in a larger context? Or ???
Replies: 12
Views: 1364

Re: How close are your 12 month earnings compared to Vanguard's Allocation Chart?

interesting that both 20% and 30% equity portfolios had fewer years with lost than 100% bonds.

no matter how much money I had, I dont think I'd ever go less than 30-40% equities.
by bgf
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire
Replies: 14
Views: 1240

Re: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire

What might be some alternatives to Berkshire besides the index funds? Something that is relatively smaller, newer. I am being a bit of a smart aleck here, GE? Berkshire-Hathaway is a conglomerate and conglomerates have a mixed record. Not sure I would look for another conglomerate as a substitute f...
by bgf
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire
Replies: 14
Views: 1240

Re: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire

Markel (MKL).I've owned it for a few years now. Like Berkshire, it is a profitable insurance company that invests in public equities as well as a diversified set of wholly owned operating companies, known as Markel Ventures. I would suggest reading some annual reports and letters to shareholders to ...
by bgf
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put Options
Replies: 27
Views: 1158

Re: Put Options

I'm not an expert and many here are more knowledgeable than I am. nobody here can tell you the right price because that depends on your particular strategy and option prices change rapidly. what helped me was doing paper trading and comparing similar trades to other stocks as well as ETFs like SPY. ...
by bgf
Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4943

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

from what I've heard, it's a bit difficult to get pure exposure to broad commodities in the way you can with stocks. you deal with contango or something and other counterparty risks. ive looked into commodity ETFs before and it seems like they all have at least one major drawback.
by bgf
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 928

Re: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation

If you excercise the option, do so because you believe the company has a bright future that's going to continue to do well, not solely to avoid taxes. It also depends on how much of your portfolio you would have in one stock after exercising these options, ok if it's small but not okay if it's goin...
by bgf
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 928

Re: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation

1 week or 2 of bad news could wipe all of the intrinsic value of the options out. I recommend you don't count it at all until you're 100% realized - I had an option trade on a very volatile stock move more than 3,000% in one day last week, 600% is a day or two in the options world. Also, know that ...
by bgf
Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 928

Re: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation

i suppose if i wanted to, i could just buy puts ATM or slightly OTM with the same expiration. this put would "protect" a certain amount of my profits. if the puts expire worthless then it means i've made money from here on out or haven't lost any (apart from the put premium). if the price begins to...
by bgf
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 928

Re: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation

i suppose if i wanted to, i could just buy puts ATM or slightly OTM with the same expiration. this put would "protect" a certain amount of my profits. if the puts expire worthless then it means i've made money from here on out or haven't lost any (apart from the put premium). if the price begins to ...
by bgf
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I never invested in international, but not because it is not doing well it is because years ago I read Common Sense on Mutual Funds and John Bogle's chapter on that subject resonated with me so much that I felt it wasn't necessary. Having said that, just when you stop investing in it, it will do be...
by bgf
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 292
Views: 56115

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

EM seems to alternate between being a king-maker and being an incinerator of hopes and dreams. You just have to buy them at the "right" time. :twisted: my experience with EM is that the frequency of its underperformance is high and the frequency of its outperformance is low but that the size of its...
by bgf
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 292
Views: 56115

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

EM seems to alternate between being a king-maker and being an incinerator of hopes and dreams. You just have to buy them at the "right" time. :twisted: my experience with EM is that the frequency of its underperformance is high and the frequency of its outperformance is low but that the size of its...
by bgf
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2473

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

As an ex-stock picker and ex-market timer, I refer you to Bernstein (from "Deep Risk"): " ...mistiming the market is probably the most frequent and severe form of permanent capital loss. " imo, jumping in and, far more importantly, jumping OUT of the market is the worst sin an investor can make. it...
by bgf
Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 928

Re: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation

I find myself in the pleasant position of having purchased "cheap" OTM calls back in May that have since gone pretty much deep ITM. return is well over 600%. they expire Jan. '19. I had the intention of simply selling in January basically to defer having to pay short term capital gains until april ...
by bgf
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep ITM call options and asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 928

Deep ITM call options and asset allocation

I find myself in the pleasant position of having purchased "cheap" OTM calls back in May that have since gone pretty much deep ITM. return is well over 600%. they expire Jan. '19. I had the intention of simply selling in January basically to defer having to pay short term capital gains until april 2...
by bgf
Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Driver (Car) Over 100K Miles?
Replies: 96
Views: 6895

Re: Daily Driver (Car) Over 100K Miles?

I own an older Subaru Forester with > 100K miles. I recently spent $750 on a timing belt replacement so probably will keep the car 'til it dies. Who else has a high mileage vehicle that's used as a daily driver? What type of vehicle is it, and how do you decide when to sell it? Do you buy another c...
by bgf
Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

"There may be at least one sign that self-directed investors are more skittish, at least on the margins. While the iShares main EM stock ETF has seen continued strong flows, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) has experienced outflows of near-$600 million in this quarter. "Many advisors use...
by bgf
Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If international was cheap before, it must be really really cheap now. Unfortunately, it's not... Abysmal growth in some areas like Europe, inability to capture growth using the stock market in high-growth areas (China, India), etc. Same old. Index Current P/E Forward P/E Historical P/E (10 Year) S...
by bgf
Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with individual stock advice taxable account
Replies: 19
Views: 1301

Re: Need help with individual stock advice taxable account

Agree -- sell losers and an equivalent amount of winners to offset. Make sure you turn off dividend reinvestment so that you do not continue to buy into those stocks. Use those (cash) dividends to invest in the three fund portfolio. With the remaining capital gains, make sure they are all long term...
by bgf
Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with individual stock advice taxable account
Replies: 19
Views: 1301

Re: Need help with individual stock advice taxable account

Agree -- sell losers and an equivalent amount of winners to offset. Make sure you turn off dividend reinvestment so that you do not continue to buy into those stocks. Use those (cash) dividends to invest in the three fund portfolio. With the remaining capital gains, make sure they are all long term...
by bgf
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with individual stock advice taxable account
Replies: 19
Views: 1301

Re: Need help with individual stock advice taxable account

where does the 5% number come from? as of the end of the quarter, AAPL was 3.9% of the SP500. I don't know if it has ever been over 4%, but I would not be surprised. https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/VOO/quarter-end-holdings I think that setting a hard line number at 5%, especially ...
by bgf
Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on kids extracurriculars?
Replies: 85
Views: 4608

Re: How much do you spend on kids extracurriculars?

out of curiosity, how much time do these kids spend doing these activities outside of the scheduled lessons/classes/practice? i don't mean practicing piano because you are required to learn certain material for your next lesson... i consider that part of the structured practice. i mean time that cou...
by bgf
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2331

Re: Why are you not compensated for taking unsystematic risk?

You are rewarded for taking unsystemic risk, if you have good reason to believe that the individual stock you're buying is too cheap. Just because you believe the stock you're buying is too cheap does not mean it is. The fact that the securities are believed to be cheap by some people and expensive...
by bgf
Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nespresso?
Replies: 87
Views: 6357

Re: Nespresso?

Not sure if this last bit was a response to my comment comparing the cost of nespresso to a super automatic, but in or case we were drinking 3-4 pods a day each. So for our family, 6-8 pods * 30 * $0.75 = $135 to $180 per month. But the economics are more favorable for nespresso if you are less of ...
by bgf
Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nespresso?
Replies: 87
Views: 6357

Re: Nespresso?

... For instance, Rancilio Silva is a good starter cheap machine. The Vanguard of the espresso machines. I pitty all you with so much money and no taste to enjoy the good things on life You are projecting a bit. This may be hard for you to believe, but some people actually like and enjoy coffee lik...
by bgf
Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Under insured motorist insurance
Replies: 19
Views: 993

Re: Under insured motorist insurance

yes I have UM and an umbrella. I would say UM is a requirement. too many people driving around with no insurance or crappy minimum with a crappy insurer that denies coverage on just about everything.
by bgf
Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nespresso?
Replies: 87
Views: 6357

Re: Nespresso?

... For instance, Rancilio Silva is a good starter cheap machine. The Vanguard of the espresso machines. I pitty all you with so much money and no taste to enjoy the good things on life You are projecting a bit. This may be hard for you to believe, but some people actually like and enjoy coffee lik...
by bgf
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11246

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

And if both conclusions are statistically valid, It would be my opinion that prudence/logic would dictate that the one mathematically demonstrating the potentially more disastrous outcome would be given more weight, given the importance of one's retirement savings. I saw it recently posted that bog...
by bgf
Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11246

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

Wash sales - Particularly "substantially identical", where people substitute their own phrases like "substantially similar" or "substantially different". Here's a new one from today: "substantially equivant". (sic) what i find funny is that none of those is any more absurd than the proper term "sub...
by bgf
Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11246

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

so if you assume the phenomena, in this case market returns, is normally distributed when it is not, you are going to be very wrong in assuming that large changes in returns are as incredibly unlikely as one would expect given a normal distribution with thin tails. they aren't. if the variance is a...