Search found 803 matches

by bgf
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 65
Views: 4874

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

From 1980s to now, lot of US companies have become global. Also reverse is true. By owning stock in large US companies, you are already being exposed to global markets. owning companies that are domiciled in country "xyz" but do business globally is not comparable to owning countries domiciled all ...
by bgf
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 65
Views: 4874

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

For the sake of example, let’s say this person has 90% of their stock assets in international (e.g. VTIAX) and the other 10% in US companies (e.g. VTSAX). If our hypothetical investor were considering increasing exposure to US stocks to become more in line with their home country bias, would now be...
by bgf
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 65
Views: 4874

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

From 1980s to now, lot of US companies have become global. Also reverse is true. By owning stock in large US companies, you are already being exposed to global markets. owning companies that are domiciled in country "xyz" but do business globally is not comparable to owning countries domiciled all ...
by bgf
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 327 Years of British Equity History
Replies: 19
Views: 1881

Re: 327 Years of British Equity History

Fascinating, thank you. My takeaways are the more prolonged periods of poor equity return, and the larger variance than I thought, of just about everything measured. Which I guess is a great argument for all kinds of diversification, and a good argument to invest defensively, whatever form that may...
by bgf
Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2669

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

I tend to agree with bgf - you can't just "demand" the returns to be higher. I can go up to some random person and say I demand 10 million dollars. How is that more ridiculous than the idea of investors "demanding" a return from a business to be higher than a certain other investment? "Demand" is b...
by bgf
Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2669

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

based on the responses, there are two approaches. 1) stocks and bonds are inherently different THINGS. therefore, they perform differently. :oops: 2) stocks are inherently more RISKY (whatever that specifically means), thus investors demand a higher future RETURN in exchange for bearing this risk. i...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many hours do you work and what do you outsource
Replies: 88
Views: 7326

Re: How many hours do you work and what do you outsource

Senior leadership position: 24/7 availability anywhere on the globe Regular week: 7 am - 5 pm 4 days week physically in office ; then available as needed for senior level decision making decisions or meetings ; day 5 working from home office or airplane. Non routine week 7am - 5pm physically in off...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2669

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

Looking at the next, say, 100 years in the US total stock and total bond markets. Assume the money is getting Roth-like tax treatment (no ongoing or terminal tax burden) and all dividends/distributions reinvested. No justifications on the basis of long-term historical data, please (“past performanc...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2669

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

pretty much everyone has referenced the equity risk premium, but this isn't the answer. if anything, the equity premium puzzle is the question . also, saying that investors "demand" a higher return is a posteriori hogwash. look, i'm an investor, and i say, here and now before all and sundry, "I DEM...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2669

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

asif408 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:30 pm
the expected risk premium varies over time and is not always positive.
is that not proof that it fails as an answer to the question?
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2669

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

Why? Because if stocks return 10%, and that 10% is a safe figure provided only you hold them for at least thirty years, then an entrepreneur could offer a thirty-year zero coupon bond that pays a guaranteed 9%/year. I simply take your $1,000, invest it in stocks, watch it grow to $1000 * 1.1^30 = $...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 265
Views: 13313

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I think whole thread is a collective fail by the Boglehead community. Why the deference and applause for a market timing scheme? Why aren't forum veterans pointing out that buying and selling of an entire portfolio based on some economic indicators is ill-considered? Most folks who have put forth t...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2669

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

pretty much everyone has referenced the equity risk premium, but this isn't the answer. if anything, the equity premium puzzle is the question . also, saying that investors "demand" a higher return is a posteriori hogwash. look, i'm an investor, and i say, here and now before all and sundry, "I DEMA...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 188
Views: 9686

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Is Tanelorn Capital's current -370.00% return a new record? :D Currently -540% as Sears stock rose above $2 today, from the contest starting price of $0.30. All these expert fund managers and no one was contrarian enough to go long the bankrupt dying retail chain - go figure. But that’s how you mak...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2669

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

A bond is a promise by the company to pay you a certain amount of interest for a certain amount of time in exchange for your principal investment. You have nothing to do with the company other than you have become one of its creditors. You are loaning the company money. Bonds are not without risk. Y...
by bgf
Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 467
Views: 23094

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

i'll give it up to OP, this is not a harebrained strategy. here at BH we're almost irrationally conditioned to think that all active strategies will fail, but that isn't the case. the odds might be against you, and it is certaintly a tough game to play, and as a matter of logic and math all active i...
by bgf
Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 467
Views: 23094

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

OP, if this were to fail, is it more likely to fail:
1) with consistently weak returns, or
2)a drastically bad return over a short period.

same with success, is it more likely to:
1) consistently outperform, or
2) have a few incredibly big years that account for most of the outperformance.
by bgf
Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on VTWAX [Vanguard Total World Stock]
Replies: 85
Views: 5214

Re: Opinion on VTWAX

Who knows, probably at least one if not all will be a small obscure market for sure. I am talking much longer time frames than 1 year. Do you really invest in equities for 1 year timeframes? In 2018 they were Ukraine +80.39% Macedonia +30.41% Qatar +20.87% nobody knows for 2019 or 2020 or the perio...
by bgf
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on VTWAX [Vanguard Total World Stock]
Replies: 85
Views: 5214

Re: Opinion on VTWAX

Using VT/VTWAX is to me a very emotionally invested position in the belief all markets are equal with the same efficiencies, protections and transparencies. It also suggests the inability to distinguish which areas of the world have the best and worse long term prospects. There is even some suggest...
by bgf
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2401
Views: 1504507

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

the fundamental ideas and purpose of the "three fund" are what matter, not the practical implementation of it.

going world + bond isnt a mark against the three fund. if anything its high praise.
by bgf
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many hours do you work and what do you outsource
Replies: 88
Views: 7326

Re: How many hours do you work and what do you outsource

wife works like 7:30 - 3:45. i work 8 - 5 or 5:30. i drop daughter off at daycare and wife picks up. we cook dinner every night and do our own cleaning. i do our yard and pool maintenance. neither of us travels for work. we don't really outsource anything. blue apron sometimes for dinner, but we go ...
by bgf
Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Carvana
Replies: 42
Views: 3893

Re: Carvana

I wonder where they are getting their cars from? Are they just listing used cars at local dealers with markup or do they really have their own inventory in every city? its my understanding that they buy cars at auction and then put them up for sale. if they don't sell pretty quickly, maybe after a ...
by bgf
Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 467
Views: 23094

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

below is the same strategy using 3x international developed and 3x emerging markets. international and emerging market strategies are far more pedestrian. makes me wonder what you should reasonably expect moving forward. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYe...
by bgf
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Carvana
Replies: 42
Views: 3893

Re: Carvana

I think we will buy our next car through carvana, and this thread has really helped me. i understand that I can probably save a couple thousand by buying privately, but the selection is not comparable. you could look for months and months and never find what you want locally. all the while, you are ...
by bgf
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 467
Views: 23094

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

. A 3x leveraged S&P500 fund would have struggled to survive in 2008. By my estimate a 3x daily leveraged S&P500 fund (assuming exact replication) would have declined by 95% from June 4, 2007 to March 9, 2008, and in real world implementation would have perhaps declined by even more (for example SS...
by bgf
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 467
Views: 23094

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

If you are in UPRO 100%, you will go down 90% in 2008. How many years of 24% returns does it take to recover from that? You need an uncorrelated asset, and you need a lot of it. and then go up a whole bunch in 2009 - 2019... 100% UPRO has a CAGR of almost 30% since inception. Here is a comparison o...
by bgf
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When is leaving your job that pays well a good idea?
Replies: 97
Views: 10032

Re: When is leaving your job that pays well a good idea?

I don't really believe this. Admittedly I don't want kids and partly that's because I don't see many parents demonstrating anything aside from stress. However as far as job satisfaction is concerned, I do believe it starts out pretty high during your 20's and declines into your 30's. You see the st...
by bgf
Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 467
Views: 23094

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

hohum wrote:
Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:50 pm
If you are in UPRO 100%, you will go down 90% in 2008. How many years of 24% returns does it take to recover from that?

You need an uncorrelated asset, and you need a lot of it.
and then go up a whole bunch in 2009 - 2019... 100% UPRO has a CAGR of almost 30% since inception.
by bgf
Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 467
Views: 23094

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

i dont understand one thing. why not put all 15% in UPRO? we're only talking about 15% of your portfolio to begin with, an amount you are willing and able to lose, potentially. i get the hogwash about higher sharpe ratios yada yada but why do you care? who cares if the sharpe ratio is higher? again...
by bgf
Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 467
Views: 23094

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

i dont understand one thing. why not put all 15% in UPRO? we're only talking about 15% of your portfolio to begin with, an amount you are willing and able to lose, potentially. i get the hogwash about higher sharpe ratios yada yada but why do you care? who cares if the sharpe ratio is higher? again,...
by bgf
Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett
Replies: 23
Views: 1622

Re: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett

IMO this is largest evidence of factor hubris and marketing around. These guys have found correlations & implied causation. There are alot of reasons outside of theoretical factor constructs that Buffett chooses his investments. Just because you have found past correlation does not mean you have fo...
by bgf
Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett
Replies: 23
Views: 1622

Re: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett

From the article: It’s no secret that the company’s insurance business provides extra investable assets, as its customers pay their premiums upfront and receive their claims later I have heard this before, but never understood the reasoning. Why wouldn't competition between insurance companies redu...
by bgf
Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett
Replies: 23
Views: 1622

Re: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett

BRK is a risk management tool for a very large part of the global economy, and the company makes a good penny performing that role with the risk of being completely wiped out someday in future when 3 black swans hit at once. i don't think that is accurate. this assumes that somehow the entire congl...
by bgf
Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett
Replies: 23
Views: 1622

Re: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett

Buffett's investment acumen is not reducible to his investments in publicly traded stocks. It includes his foresight in understanding the positive effects of insurance float. It includes his ability to invest the float in both public and private companies in such a manner that his insurance operatio...
by bgf
Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Besides your core.. anyone also hold a play account?
Replies: 61
Views: 3139

Re: Besides your core.. anyone also hold a play account?

I have a 7 figure treasury portfolio that I use as margin to trade futures. Average about $30k/mth in additional income. Both Dec and Jan we're great for me at $50K+ each. I never take more than $100k in exposure and will stop loss if I need to. It will probably be my mental stimulation in retireme...
by bgf
Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Besides your core.. anyone also hold a play account?
Replies: 61
Views: 3139

Re: Besides your core.. anyone also hold a play account?

what others might call a "play account" is currently 20% of my portfolio - berkshire hathaway, markel, amd ebix. they are in my IPS and i have rules governing when to purchase.
by bgf
Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403712

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

8.6% according to the Bogleheads spreadsheet. great start to the year and markets still well below all time highs!
by bgf
Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 146
Views: 21672

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

what disadvantages are there to switching from capital one at 2.0% to VMMXX for my emergency fund?
by bgf
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Money Savage" podcast with guest Rick Ferri
Replies: 19
Views: 2367

Re: "Money Savage" podcast with guest Rick Ferri

just added to my queue! thanks for the heads up
by bgf
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wow Way Internet Reviews
Replies: 8
Views: 1146

Re: Wow Way Internet Reviews

i use google wifi and check my connection speed periodically. i pay for 30mbps, and i dont think i've ever had a test outside of the range of 30-33. i just now checked it from my office and got 33. maybe they have a problem with service at the higher ranges, or perhaps some people have trouble with ...
by bgf
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification ideas
Replies: 97
Views: 5031

Re: Diversification ideas

how is it that people can claim to increase diversification (defined as calculated decrease in portfolio volatility) but concede that they can't make the same claim about increasing the return of the portfolio?
by bgf
Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wow Way Internet Reviews
Replies: 8
Views: 1146

Re: Wow Way Internet Reviews

ditto the above. have had it for 4 years now and no complaints. good customer service too.
by bgf
Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 3205

Re: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks

So then you are trying to passively manage individual stocks to create a "DIY index fund"? Because I can't find a cheap fund to do exactly what I want for me Also, you later say you already have a “BH diversified stock/bond portfolio.” How much of your investments overall would you be applying to i...
by bgf
Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 3205

Re: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks

klangfool, your approach seems best suited for calls. ever considered that? your likelihood of 10x+ increases dramatically, as does your probability of total loss.
by bgf
Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 15340

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

My point was, nothing needed correcting. Bonds are less risky than stocks, and bonds are less volatile than stocks, regardless of whether or not they mean the same thing. Nisiprius simply said bonds are less risky than stocks. They are (less risky). And if you must, they are also less volatile. oh ...
by bgf
Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 15340

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Bonds are less risky volatile because they are legal contracts to pay specific numbers of dollars on specific calendar dates. Stocks are not. And, legally, bond issuers are required to make those payments before they get to pay stock dividends or other things. That is a fundamental difference that ...
by bgf
Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 15340

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

low beta and quality were only "discovered" about half a century after Buffett used them to become one of the wealthiest men in the world. Without the academic research, people might have gone on thinking Buffett was a good stock picker instead of being just a closet factor investor. Am I missing s...
by bgf
Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 15340

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Or an additional unique source of loss. Or it could all average to zero and you are just left with the higher expenses. "Factor Investing" has brought amazing insights/discoveries to the investing world, here are just a few areas that can be sources of return: "Size" A small company has more potent...
by bgf
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Equity Bond Allocation and Duration
Replies: 9
Views: 542

Re: Equity Bond Allocation and Duration

im 33 but don't plan on retiring as early as you, maybe switch to another career that is lower paying, but regardless my investment horizon extends beyond yours by at least 10 years. your approach makes sense to me though, and i think it's a good one.