Search found 427 matches

by bgf
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 116
Views: 11271

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

And having some bonds to rebalance is not guaranteed to have left cash on the table: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&startYear=1981&endYear=2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&freque...
by bgf
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 116
Views: 11271

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

that is not an advantage. bonds return less than stocks over the long term, including all the bear markets, panics, and crashes That doesn't mean you will have the nerve to stay the course when your portfolio is down 65%. And having some bonds to rebalance is not guaranteed to have left cash on the...
by bgf
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about Cutting Cable
Replies: 18
Views: 1770

Re: Question about Cutting Cable

That's a high cable bill for internet service that slow (24 mbps). I would call and ask for higher speed for free (at least 100mbps). DSL can reach 15 mbps, not far below what you are getting. My one-year agreement with U-Verse is up next month so I'll call and see what they can offer. The current ...
by bgf
Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheapest way to buy a phone in 2018?
Replies: 73
Views: 6927

Re: Cheapest way to buy a phone in 2018?

Also the 18-24 month payments aren't a lease, it's a 0% purchase payment plan so at the end you own the phone free and clear. Unless you can't cash flow the payments there's no reason to pay for the phone up front, you are better off making the payments and paying 0% interest and investing the mone...
by bgf
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheapest way to buy a phone in 2018?
Replies: 73
Views: 6927

Re: Cheapest way to buy a phone in 2018?

Also the 18-24 month payments aren't a lease, it's a 0% purchase payment plan so at the end you own the phone free and clear. Unless you can't cash flow the payments there's no reason to pay for the phone up front, you are better off making the payments and paying 0% interest and investing the mone...
by bgf
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1934
Views: 349287

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

If you use XIRR to calculate YTD, you should use the last day of the year as end date right? on google sheets i use this formula: =SUM(((1+XIRR(A3:A21,B3:B21,10%))^(((DATE(2018,6,29)-(DATE(2017,12,29)))/365))-1)) Column A is cash flows in and out, Column B is date. row 1 has my 2017 year end balanc...
by bgf
Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 116
Views: 11271

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

However the main disadvantage I see with going 100% stocks is an inability of taking advantage of a market downturn to buy stocks. In 2008 the Dow fell from ~16000 to ~6000. If I don't have any money in bonds I wouldn't be able to buy stocks at such a low cost other than with income generated. Yes,...
by bgf
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1809

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

OP has it right by distinguishing between being part owner (equity/shares) or creditor (bondholder). dividends go to owners, coupon payments go to creditors. two very different things. i think it might be simplest to just break down all the ways management at a company can utilize the money it gener...
by bgf
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a Pool
Replies: 64
Views: 7092

Re: Building a Pool

When I crunch the numbers around opportunity cost this pool could be a $200k expense with the initial outlay and maintenance costs over the next 15 years which is our expected time in this house. I bought a house with a pool and it was a key factor in deciding that I wanted the house. If it didn't ...
by bgf
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your property taxes?
Replies: 212
Views: 12644

Re: What are your property taxes?

mbasherp wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:51 am
~$1770 on 300k home, 2450 sq ft
Sales tax: 9.25%
TN income tax: 0%

I prefer the state getting their share from the consumption side rather than the income or property ones!
does sales tax exempt food or gas?
by bgf
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1934
Views: 349287

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

If you use XIRR to calculate YTD, you should use the last day of the year as end date right? on google sheets i use this formula: =SUM(((1+XIRR(A3:A21,B3:B21,10%))^(((DATE(2018,6,29)-(DATE(2017,12,29)))/365))-1)) Column A is cash flows in and out, Column B is date. row 1 has my 2017 year end balanc...
by bgf
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1934
Views: 349287

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

purpleKatz wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 1:11 pm
100% Stock
-2.4% YTD - almost entirely due to emerging markets. Oh well!
i'm in a similar situation.

100% stock
-1.76%

i overweight emerging markets (20%) and some of my individual stocks are underperforming VTI so far this year. im trailing my benchmark VT portfolio by ~1.6%.
by bgf
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What % of your equity is int’l?
Replies: 141
Views: 7479

Re: What % of your equity is int’l?

40% split evenly between developed and emerging.
by bgf
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your property taxes?
Replies: 212
Views: 12644

Re: What are your property taxes?

Georgia
$242000 purchase price. 2750sq ft.

~$3400 in property taxes.

we have a property tax freeze in place, so people with very large expensive homes who have owned them for 20+ years pay far less in taxes than they should. my home was purchased only a few years ago...
by bgf
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?
Replies: 92
Views: 4473

Re: Why would creating an intelligent S&P 475 be so difficult to do?

I get it. The brightest stock analysts cannot beat the market with their actively managed funds… But why can’t those same bright ones at least identify 25 dogs out of 500 large companies? Or 20? Or even 10? What exactly makes something like that so very difficult to accomplish? what constitutes a "...
by bgf
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2328

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

Harry Markowitz took a simple (folksy?) approach. He wanted to minimize regrets whether stocks or bonds produced better returns, so he chose 50/50; and he's a brilliant analyst. Even though bond returns are poor right now, that doesn't mean stock returns can't be worse for a protracted period. Ther...
by bgf
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 8529

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

My love of dividends comes from a book, "The Dividend Growth Machine" by Nathan Winklepleck who said that a dividend growth strategy had the following advantages: "1) Outperform the S&P 500 index. Since 1972, companies that have grown their dividends outperform the average stock by 3X. 2) Less pric...
by bgf
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Tried Youtube TV Yet?
Replies: 42
Views: 3905

Re: Anyone Tried Youtube TV Yet?

Not wishing to hijack this thread but has anyone tried Hulu Live TV? Seems similar to YouTube but includes HGTV/Food/Travel channels for those who care. Priced similarly. yes ive been using it for a few months now and am thrilled that i cancelled my cable subscription. we have hulu live tv with the...
by bgf
Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 52
Views: 7065

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

EM has a disproportionate share of commodities in them and commodities have not been read hot for a while. At least according to Morningstar, Vanguard Total Stock Market has about 9% in materials and energy companies, while Vanguard Emerging Markets Index has 15% in materials and energy companies. ...
by bgf
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 8529

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

I've never heard of "homemade dividends"... is that a thing? Are you 100% stocks? If not, I would use the bond side of things as the place to go for a new roof or such. Or, whichever part of the portfolio is up at the time. yes, its an absurd phrase that came about with the DGI (dividend growth inv...
by bgf
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 52
Views: 7065

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

I hadn't noticed til I saw it in a headline this afternoon. I'll rebalance with this month's dividends and contributions.
by bgf
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 10701

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

just saw this post on seekingalpha.com: "This just in: The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM) is down about 10% for the month of June (it's off 1.9% in today's session). Since peaking in late January, it's down by roughly 20%." In other words, emerging markets are in the DREADED BEAR M...
by bgf
Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9652

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

what are your unleveraged returns on real estate? i go back and forth... i have no particular stance on real estate other than i know NOTHING about it, and that scares me. I also just want to be a completely passive investor . I don't want to be a small business owner or manager. If I could invest ...
by bgf
Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P P/E Ratio
Replies: 50
Views: 3239

Re: S&P P/E Ratio

When a company pays a dividend, the value of the company falls when the cash leaves the company balance sheet. You can watch it happen on the ex-dividend date. If the investor reinvests that dividend, they'll have a larger stake in the company but on balance there was no change in value just a tran...
by bgf
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P P/E Ratio
Replies: 50
Views: 3239

Re: S&P P/E Ratio

how has the company become more leveraged? if a company uses free cash flow or cash to buy back shares, it is not increasing leverage... are you referring to something else? Leverage = Liabilities / Assets Cash is a asset, disbursing cash reduces assets, and increases leverage. buying back shares i...
by bgf
Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9652

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

We own some alternative investments as a very modest part of our portfolio, but principally we are a stock and bond type investor. Some of our family members have invested in real estate over the years and been quite successful. I’ve been aware of others who, particularly due to leverage, were flyi...
by bgf
Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P P/E Ratio
Replies: 50
Views: 3239

Re: S&P P/E Ratio

Isn't the point of share buy backs to (hopefully) increase the stock price? Earnings per share would increase, leaving the P/E the same? If the buy back doesn't work then the P/E would decrease. Just like the price of a stock should drop by the amount of the dividend on ex-date, the price of the st...
by bgf
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6683
Views: 1448769

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

US Stocks are not even 4% off of their all-time highs. Very exciting. Agreed, yet the sentiment would have you believe otherwise more often than not. Makes one wonder if many have become too comfortable/complacent with annual returns since '09. :beer I saw quite a few posters here expecting return ...
by bgf
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Treasury Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Re: All Treasury Portfolio

you would be taking de minimis risk and would be compensated accordingly.
by bgf
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P P/E Ratio
Replies: 50
Views: 3239

Re: S&P P/E Ratio

and lower corporate tax rates and massive share buybacks will decrease it further. Share buy backs - hopefully - increase the P/E ratio. I don't think they have any impact the way an index like S&P calculates earnings for the market. Indices aggregate all of the earnings (and losses) together for t...
by bgf
Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P P/E Ratio
Replies: 50
Views: 3239

Re: S&P P/E Ratio

The Vanguard 500 Index (S&P 500) Fund's "weighted average price/earnings ratio" is listed as 21.0; as of 5/31/2018. Vanguard doesn't say, but I would assume it would be based on the previous 12 months of earnings. bill and lower corporate tax rates and massive share buybacks will decrease it further.
by bgf
Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Caps Gains Tax Strategy
Replies: 12
Views: 1094

Re: Caps Gains Tax Strategy

sounds to me like you are using a large short term cap gain as a means of optionality with a highly speculative short term play. in other words, the potential outcomes are this: 1) speculative play fails and you lose the money. this loss is offset against a large short term cap gain that is already ...
by bgf
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTI - 2nd qtr dividend
Replies: 3
Views: 416

Re: VTI - 2nd qtr dividend

we'll need to see the share buyback numbers as well.
by bgf
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Left Betterment, Need help simplifying portfolio in Vanguard
Replies: 10
Views: 1745

Re: Left Betterment, Need help simplifying portfolio in Vanguard

You could do VXUS or VEA + VWO. VXUS includes international developed and emerging markets. VEA is international developed, and VWO is emerging markets. I do not think that VXUS = VEA + VWO, technically speaking. So there are differences, but I am not able to spell them out. I do know there have bee...
by bgf
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge best choice for higher net worth accounts?
Replies: 60
Views: 8479

Re: Merrill Edge best choice for higher net worth accounts?

One of the great benefits of Merrill Edge that I recently became aware of is, you can use funds in your account as "reserves" for a child's down payment on a house (or your own, if need be). For instance, your child needs 20% down on a $500,000 house. Merrill will mark $100k as "reserved" in your a...
by bgf
Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?
Replies: 24
Views: 2925

Re: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?

is it safe to invest solely in the US? i'd say probably yes, it is safe

is it optimal?

:confused

many here invest only in the US; many here invest internationally.
by bgf
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effective Number of Bets, or how many funds is enough?
Replies: 16
Views: 1211

Re: Effective Number of Bets, or how many funds is enough?

how would just adding a handful (3-5) of individually picked stocks to a 3 fund effect this? would each stock necessarily be an additional effective bet? would it depend on the size of the stock? its value?
by bgf
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 103236

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

who wouldn't want to pay top dollar for a vehicle touting cutting edge tech, manufactured in a tent, by a company that may or may not exist 5 years from now?

i say buy 3.
by bgf
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 71
Views: 7303

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

im having a difficult time wrapping my head around the factor tilt strategy. while i think i understand market cap weighted index funds, i have not read much about factor tilting. what makes factor tilting any different from investing in old school mutual funds that we all shun? is it just the fact ...
by bgf
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effective Number of Bets, or how many funds is enough?
Replies: 16
Views: 1211

Re: Effective Number of Bets, or how many funds is enough?

this stuff is way over my head. does this method get around the problem of variances changing over time?
by bgf
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6987

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

nisiprius, i think your criticism/attacks on buffett are unfair and uncalled for. he is one of the greatest investors and capital allocators of all time. he has gone above and beyond just about any other executive or fund manager in teaching others and describing the inner workings of Berkshire thr...
by bgf
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6987

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

nisiprius, i think your criticism/attacks on buffett are unfair and uncalled for. he is one of the greatest investors and capital allocators of all time. he has gone above and beyond just about any other executive or fund manager in teaching others and describing the inner workings of Berkshire thr...
by bgf
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6987

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

nisiprius, i think your criticism/attacks on buffett are unfair and uncalled for. he is one of the greatest investors and capital allocators of all time. he has gone above and beyond just about any other executive or fund manager in teaching others and describing the inner workings of Berkshire thr...
by bgf
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6987

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

nisiprius, i think your criticism/attacks on buffett are unfair and uncalled for. he is one of the greatest investors and capital allocators of all time. he has gone above and beyond just about any other executive or fund manager in teaching others and describing the inner workings of Berkshire thro...
by bgf
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shorting Amazon
Replies: 44
Views: 4354

Re: Shorting Amazon

of the tens of thousands or more investment ideas and trades out there, you come up with shorting amazon? i recommend you stick to your day job.
by bgf
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 6987

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

i have always interpreted the rule to emphasize that the goal of investing is to survive. the value investor's goal is to make money in the long term through compounding of good investments. to do that, you have to actually be around for the long term. it sounds silly, but it isn't. too many fund ma...
by bgf
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 2102

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

Looking at the OP plots, looks like stocks are causing the GDP, not the other way around. Just saying.... Though generally it's economic expansions or contractions that impact the stock market (or the expectations for these, since markets are forward looking), certainly there are situations where t...
by bgf
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Approximating total stock market
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Approximating total stock market

my wifes 403b has VFIAX (SP500), VIMAX (Midcap), and TRBIX (small cap). the best i could figure was 70-20-10.
by bgf
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Capital One 360 ACH limits
Replies: 60
Views: 9860

Re: New Capitol One 360 ACH limits

i use capital one 360, and i won't need to make transfers out unless there is an emergency. what other banks offer competitive rates but do not have these downsides with capital one?
by bgf
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 93
Views: 8726

Re: Very confused with the current market

- It has been history higher and higher. - the fundamental law says it will recycle every 10 years - I had been on cash for 10 months Please don't tell me I should not time the market. What's going wrong? ok, i won't tell you not to time the market. instead, next time you time the market, just be r...