Search found 1466 matches

by bgf
Mon May 25, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard reviews “commodities futures” for inclusion in Target Date Retirement Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 2737

Re: Vanguard reviews “commodities futures” for inclusion in Target Date Retirement Funds

Change or no change? Our ongoing target-date fund debate: Published: April 29th, 2020 https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvComTDFDebate This is why I got out of target date funds. I have no control over what goes in them, and what the allocat...
by bgf
Mon May 25, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard reviews “commodities futures” for inclusion in Target Date Retirement Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 2737

Re: Vanguard reviews “commodities futures” for inclusion in Target Date Retirement Funds

Bfg what if you’re 64 and deciding between a TDF and a 2 fund portfolio? I’m not going to be holding this fund for 60-70 years. Easy. Pick the target date fund or a balanced fund. I don't see the problem. Also I don’t see the advantage of PAS over the TDF. They seem to offer pretty much the same po...
by bgf
Mon May 25, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?
Replies: 90
Views: 6125

Re: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?

It seems that Jeep vehicles are nearly legendary for their poor reliability ratings, and yet I see them everywhere like dandelions. Why are they so popular when they have such a poor reputation? I'm wondering if I should consider buying one. The Grand Cherokee would be my choice. What do Bogleheads...
by bgf
Sun May 24, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal spending out of control after Covid-19
Replies: 118
Views: 8792

Re: Personal spending out of control after Covid-19

We're probably spending a little more but its more than offset by not paying $900 per month for daycare.

I'm still working but taking more relaxing mornings and going in later. No need to drop daughter off at daycare and get to office by 7:50 or 8 anymore.
by bgf
Sat May 23, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?
Replies: 27
Views: 1867

Re: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?

Many people are familiar with Talebs popular works but not his more technical book Dynamic Hedging. Take a peak... https://www.amazon.com/Dynamic-Hedging-Managing-Vanilla-Options/dp/0471152803 Ha. I remember reading that. Definitely not a fun read like his others (and probably only worth it for peo...
by bgf
Sat May 23, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6893

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

At least to me, there seems to be a disconnect between Taleb and Mandelbrot's narrative books and the actual academic financial literature. If you read Taleb or Mandelbrot, you might get the impression that everyone goes around blithely assuming that changes in the prices of financial assets follow...
by bgf
Sat May 23, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4688

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

aristotelian wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:53 am
dru808 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:45 pm
This is horrible for savers.
Counterpoint, it is no worse than high inflation.
if inflation is 8% and your MM pays 7% is that the same as inflation at 0% and MM paying -1%? at first glance it appears so, but taxes probably make the former the worse situation.
by bgf
Sat May 23, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?
Replies: 27
Views: 1867

Re: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?

Even far OTM puts are going to be expensive. This is a popular idea these days and volatility increases option prices. His books make it sound like this kind of thing is cheap, but it isn't. Agreed. And when you think about the other moving parts that Universa and strategies employ -- selling ATM o...
by bgf
Sat May 23, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6893

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

Taleb does not believe in the Gaussian Bell Curve. That's the entirety of what I learned reading one of his books. That and he seemed very smug in his writing as I recall. As if no one knew as much as he did. His tone rubbed me wrong. He does of course. He describes Mediocristan where the normal be...
by bgf
Sat May 23, 2020 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?
Replies: 27
Views: 1867

Re: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?

Even far OTM puts are going to be expensive. This is a popular idea these days and volatility increases option prices. His books make it sound like this kind of thing is cheap, but it isn't.
by bgf
Fri May 22, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6893

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots." long shots with a huge payoff. Perhaps it's rational. And, he had got it right and won big twice. So, there should be some merit in his method. KlangFool This is the point, I think. Is playing high-reward...
by bgf
Fri May 22, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6893

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots." I take it as: I’m rich enough to live with cash and bills returns, but hedge a bit for an outsized payout when the rest of you are in deep pain. I don’t know if that’s a good strategy, but it’s not irrati...
by bgf
Fri May 22, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6893

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb called Asness 'disgusting "AQR" luantic' ... I've yet to see the other side of the exchange but that's nuts. Already losing some respect here. Seems like COVID is driving even the smartest folks nuts. :twisted: Taleb has never really been a diplomat and this isn't new twitter behavior for him...
by bgf
Fri May 22, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 45
Views: 2346

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

I'm glad I'm past these days. I no longer even feel the envy.
by bgf
Fri May 22, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6893

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb called Asness 'disgusting "AQR" luantic' ... I've yet to see the other side of the exchange but that's nuts. Already losing some respect here. Seems like COVID is driving even the smartest folks nuts. :twisted: Taleb has never really been a diplomat and this isn't new twitter behavior for him...
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2828
Views: 1854486

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Taylor why do u think vanguard uses total international bonds in their TDFs? I used to hold a small amount of international bonds. Did not really do anything that Total Bond was not already doing. I consolidated back to Total Bond. I found it interesting that Vanguard's research report on internati...
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolios: 1 Fund, 2 Fund, 3 Fund or 4 Fund?
Replies: 59
Views: 2809

Re: Portfolios: 1 Fund, 2 Fund, 3 Fund or 4 Fund?

i use a target date fund wherever available. my taxable account is 4 fund mirroring the target date fund. where a target date fund isnt available or is prohibitively expensive, i use a balanced ETF, AOA. if i had my way, i'd owned Vanguard's 2050 target date fund everywhere and be done with it. mayb...
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 327
Views: 16697

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I agree, but my expectations for interest rates have been wrong for almost 10 years now, and I can't say it won't stay low for another 10. Looking at history, interest rates from the 1930's to the 1960's stayed remarkably low... and for those who might be buying a long bond that they expect to hold...
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 327
Views: 16697

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I agree, but my expectations for interest rates have been wrong for almost 10 years now, and I can't say it won't stay low for another 10. Looking at history, interest rates from the 1930's to the 1960's stayed remarkably low... and for those who might be buying a long bond that they expect to hold...
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 327
Views: 16697

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

You have a fixed liability in dollars due to be paid in 20 years. You calculate the amount in principal needed to match that liability based on current rates and you purchase a 20 year US bond. You are guaranteed to meet that obligation. Interest rate movements are completely irrelevant. Inflation i...
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you determine your target savings rate?
Replies: 109
Views: 4581

Re: How did you determine your target savings rate?

Its become easier as our income has increased, but we've always tried to first pay off debt (student loans) and max retirement accounts. As our income grew the available tax benefited space grew. Simple IRA -> 401k. No HSA to an HSA. No kids to 2x 529s... now we have lots of space. Goal right now af...
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage - 15 year versus 30 year if both at same interest rate
Replies: 25
Views: 3171

Re: Mortgage - 15 year versus 30 year if both at same interest rate

Jeez and with a 800 credit score, for a loan of 165k I cant find anything below 3.5 on a refi.. Loan is too small. Not worth their trouble. Tell me about it. I can get a better rate with a cash-out than a straight refi for the same reason -- best rates are only on bigger loans I'm in the same boat....
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11323

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Does anyone "rebalance" the way I do? Default 80/20. Then at every 10% down I go 5% more into stocks. At -10% I'm at 85/15 At -20% I'm at 90/10 At -30% I'm at 95/5 At -40% I'm at 100/0 I then ride the wave back up to the all time high, when I go back to 80/20. It's written in my IPS. This morning I...
by bgf
Thu May 21, 2020 6:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11323

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Come up with a more conservative portfolio allocation (but not so conservative that when stocks rip up you'll sell bonds to buy more stocks) and implement it. ASAP.

Waiting builds inertia and makes it harder to buy back.
by bgf
Wed May 20, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

:?: EWU has not really done that well since 1996. What held the UK stock market back? Are they going to do better going forward. What is going to change? Or just expect more of the same? EWU may not have done well, but the UK stock market may have done better. EWU is not currency hedged. If you wan...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Here is a performance chart of three total market index funds since the earliest possible inception date for comparison. M* Chart Link The inception date of Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBTLX) was 12/11/1986. The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX) ...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Jack Bogle was a pioneer for sure. I'm truly grateful to him for creating the index fund and giving everyone a chance. BUT there are some that take the worshiping a little far and take some of his suggestions as literal. He wasn't right all of the time. This. A lot of people are making a god out of...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Jack Bogle said some dumb stuff one day and boom, Company A is all you need and that's that. bgf - Wow! I honestly don't even know how to take that comment or respond considering this forum is "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle". I am removing myself from any further responses to messages lik...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Hey, I get that people sometimes just say "Jack said so," and that this can be frustrating because it lacks substance for discussion, but you didn't really engage with my point. I posited that ex-us stocks may be cheaper because they are riskier. Do you agree? I dont know why they're cheaper. That ...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Hey, I get that people sometimes just say "Jack said so," and that this can be frustrating because it lacks substance for discussion, but you didn't really engage with my point. I posited that ex-us stocks may be cheaper because they are riskier. Do you agree? I dont know why they're cheaper. That ...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

I appreciate your willingness to engage, but I honestly don't know what to say. Seems like youre confusing or drawing a false equivalency between the possibility that a less risky security outperforms a more risky security (which, duh, of course that happens, bonds have outperformed equities over lo...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total world vs total us + international
Replies: 23
Views: 1314

Re: Total world vs total us + international

as many here will point out, vanguard may be keeping it somewhat below world market weight due to currency fluctuations and a strong dollar. Since the dollar is stronger against other currencies than it has been on average, wouldn't this be just the right time to up the international allocation? As...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Ex-us stocks are cheaper because they are riskier. Is this controversial? Apparently so. cheaper and riskier --> higher future returns, except in the tiny little special case of all stocks outside the US. In that tiny little special case, many here argue that cheaper, riskier international stocks w...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Ex-us stocks are cheaper because they are riskier. Is this controversial? Apparently so. cheaper and riskier --> higher future returns, except in the tiny little special case of all stocks outside the US. In that tiny little special case, many here argue that cheaper, riskier international stocks w...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total world vs total us + international
Replies: 23
Views: 1314

Re: Total world vs total us + international

I’m not clear on why the Vanguard recommendation is to buy 60 %US and 40% international as your stock allocation and not just total world as your stack allocation if you want to buy according to global market weight. If you’re buying the “world” haystack wouldn’t you buy total world? its not far of...
by bgf
Tue May 19, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Jack Bogle has often said maybe there is a reason international stocks are priced so low. Well thats a pretty dumb quote. If I said, "well maybe there's a REASON Microsoft is such an underperformer" back in 2011, after a 10 year CAGR of less than 4%, a lot of people would have agreed. They'd make u...
by bgf
Mon May 18, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Well thats a pretty dumb quote. bgf: This is the first time that I have heard someone say that Mr. Bogle made a "dumb" quote. You should find it informative to learn that when Jack Bogle published his first book in 1994 he wrote: "A long-term investor need not allocate any of his or her assets to n...
by bgf
Mon May 18, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40675

Re: Why international?

Jack Bogle has often said maybe there is a reason international stocks are priced so low. Well thats a pretty dumb quote. If I said, "well maybe there's a REASON Microsoft is such an underperformer" back in 2011, after a 10 year CAGR of less than 4%, a lot of people would have agreed. They'd make u...
by bgf
Mon May 18, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 8995

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

at current rates the dispersion of annual returns of EDV is too great for an emergency fund.
by bgf
Mon May 18, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What is the theory behind setting equity allocation to Global Cap Weight?
Replies: 9
Views: 575

Re: What is the theory behind setting equity allocation to Global Cap Weight?

If you aren't invested globally at or near market cap then you are "short" those securities that you do not own. Assume you make monthly contributions to your portfolio. You hold market weight global equities. You decide, nah, i don't like international anymore. You start directing all new money, di...
by bgf
Mon May 18, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Capital Markets Model / VCMM
Replies: 25
Views: 790

Re: Vanguard Capital Markets Model / VCMM

Vanguard is the custodian of the employer plan and I use Vanguard funds in it. I have posted our portfolio for review. Not much response. I don’t really want to use target funds because I do like watching what is happening more than that. And I like some sense of participation and control..and as I...
by bgf
Sun May 17, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend vs Total Return question
Replies: 66
Views: 2734

Re: Dividend vs Total Return question

I changed the question to owning one stock,ATT ,a few posts back to eliminate the confusion of owning different things.I really am interested in the answer if someone has one. Thanks Your ATT hypothetical is nonsense. One investor gets 7% in dividends. The other gets the same 7% in dividends and se...
by bgf
Sun May 17, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend vs Total Return question
Replies: 66
Views: 2734

Re: Dividend vs Total Return question

Berkshire doesn't pay dividends. Would investors in berkshire have more money if it had paid dividends? We don't know. Depends on what the cash that would have been used to pay dividends was used for. Don't think about it on the investor level, think on the corporate level. If the company has someth...
by bgf
Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 145
Views: 8778

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Just make it easy on yourself and buy the best performing asset ahead of time. You'll never be disappointed.
by bgf
Sat May 16, 2020 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 327
Views: 16697

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I've wondered why target date funds don't hold bonds with maturities out to the retirement date and beyond. Why is that? Cost? Probably not. Complexity? Probably not? So why? I don't ask this as a challenge to you. Matching duration to retirement makes sense to me... if target date is 2040, why not...
by bgf
Sat May 16, 2020 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 327
Views: 16697

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I was answering to someone that was challenging the article’s point that long term bonds are for fools. The only fool is a long-term investor who owns bonds that AREN’T long-term bonds. Rekenthaler has it exactly backwards. I've wondered why target date funds don't hold bonds with maturities out to...
by bgf
Fri May 15, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 327
Views: 16697

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

the long term investor will invest in long duration bond funds in hopes of greater return than a total bond fund, right? Even without caring about short term correlations or rebalancing, even at current low rates, he can fairly expect long term bonds to have a greater return than a total bond fund, ...
by bgf
Fri May 15, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Excess money in taxable vs 529?
Replies: 23
Views: 1487

Re: Excess money in taxable vs 529?

After maxing 401ks, roth iras, hsa, we invest in our 529s up to state tax deduction limit of $8k per child in Georgia. Saves us 5.75% with the deduction, which is pretty good. Thats essentially what I'd expect the plan to return... from a wealth perspective, I could just invest in cash and every yea...
by bgf
Sun May 10, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The advice you give vs the approach you use
Replies: 36
Views: 2118

Re: The advice you give vs the approach you use

If a family member or friend comes to you and asks - “how should I invest for retirement?” - what is your typical response? Assume the person has no existing knowledge about investing but is sincere, lives below their means, and will likely follow your advice if it’s easy. How much does this advice...
by bgf
Sun May 10, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Goal based Asset Allocation Ratio (non-age based)
Replies: 35
Views: 1733

Re: The Goal based Asset Allocation Ratio (non-age based)

This thread is a big reason I changed to target date funds... If you thought learning about asset allocations was complicated, wait till you have to figure out how to change it over time!!! This all sounds complicated. I just happen to be reading Misbehaving by Thaler right now, so when I clicked on...