Search found 957 matches

by bgf
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 113
Views: 8215

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

if rates go to zero, then stocks are very cheap. So we should all be investing in European stocks, right? Or are rates there below zero because some of their largest economies (UK, Germany, Italy) are in recession? And what happens to US stocks when the US enters recession, as well? Or is thought t...
by bgf
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone here have no credit cards? How is that working out for you? Do you have any trouble without them?
Replies: 145
Views: 8683

Re: Does anyone here have no credit cards? How is that working out for you? Do you have any trouble without them?

We'd give up a free 5k worth of bonuses per year if we gave up CCs. So, I'll keep using them for that reason alone. Not to mention all the protections that are built in. exactly. we only use cashback, and our monthly reward works out to between 2-2.5x the interest on our 2.0% savings account that h...
by bgf
Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 113
Views: 8215

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

if rates go to zero, then stocks are very cheap.
by bgf
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is our spending crazy?
Replies: 111
Views: 7187

Re: Is our spending crazy?

1) hit your savings goal 2) spend whatever you want on whatever you want sounds like youre on step number 2, which is great. your problem with 2 though is it sounds like you don't know exactly what is being bought and you're pretty sure you dont want it. whether your spending is sensible, crazy, ext...
by bgf
Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 228
Views: 16204

Re: Complexity vs. Simplicity

In principle, there is a closed-form method of carrying the standard errors of the correlation and variance estimates through the covariance matrix to the diversification ratio but so far I've not found a treatment in any of the literature which spells out a way to do this (straight forward or not)...
by bgf
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stacked limits of unisured motorist coverage
Replies: 5
Views: 433

Re: Stacked limits of unisured motorist coverage

if i understand you, i guess it depends on how much UM coverage you want and what you're willing to pay. We have no idea what numbers your talking about.
by bgf
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want a 2 in 1 laptop
Replies: 28
Views: 2411

Re: Want a 2 in 1 laptop

ive been in love with my pixelbook since i got a couple years ago.

https://store.google.com/us/product/goo ... lsrc=aw.ds
by bgf
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a used car: 0-interest loan over 15 months, or buy in cash
Replies: 32
Views: 1952

Re: Buying a used car: 0-interest loan over 15 months, or buy in cash

Some dealers cap the amount you can put on a credit card. Will that be an issue for you? This, I will have to check with the dealers. when i bought my car a couple years ago, i asked how much i could put on my card. i think they let me do $2000 or $2500. This was a subaru dealership. A porsche deal...
by bgf
Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Automatic Watches
Replies: 92
Views: 5467

Re: Automatic Watches

i wear an automatic omega during the week and a timex ironman on weekends. i have to reset the omega every sunday night.

i dont wear the omega for timing accuracy. in fact, if that were ever critical I'd choose my ironman and/or phone for that job.
by bgf
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 19272

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

keep posting stuff like that and you might actually explode someone's brain. i feel like its taken as a given these days that US outperforms because it just does. As I pointed out in another thread, this study is misleading because it ignores the fact that these 3 portfolios would have a different ...
by bgf
Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 19272

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

keep posting stuff like that and you might actually explode someone's brain. i feel like its taken as a given these days that US outperforms because it just does. As I pointed out in another thread, this study is misleading because it ignores the fact that these 3 portfolios would have a different ...
by bgf
Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 19272

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

Honestly, I think that anywhere from 0% ex-U.S. to 50% is within the realm of 'plausible' for a U.S. investor, although I really doubt that a 20% or smaller allocation to it is going to be very helpful. There are certainly examples of times when even a token attempt at diversification was helpful. ...
by bgf
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and INTL Returns
Replies: 18
Views: 2164

Re: US and INTL Returns

future expected returns of US v. Int'l is a question I am happy to avoid by owning both. i legit dont care which does what. paradoxically, others are happy to avoid the question by only owning one. as for the article's conclusion, i think this sums it up. "It’s worth noting that the range of returns...
by bgf
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Going to law school question
Replies: 55
Views: 3551

Re: Going to law school question

a few states dont require you to go to law school. you can 'apprentice' then take the bar. just take a kaplan/barbri course for the bar.

do some research on these states and their specific bar requirements.
by bgf
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 19272

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

For those in the "diversification is my nirvana" camp, are you global market cap weighted in bitcoin, gold, Venezuela bonds, commodities, etc.? If not, why not? I've asked a similar question of others before, and the answer is usually "I'm only interested in ownership in publicly traded companies."...
by bgf
Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 19272

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

For those in the "diversification is my nirvana" camp, are you global market cap weighted in bitcoin, gold, Venezuela bonds, commodities, etc.? If not, why not? 1) those arent companies. 2) it doesnt make any sense to do that. why does the "market cap" of bitcoin hold any significance whatsoever?
by bgf
Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

i think nisiprius' first two points, or questions, remain valid/unanswered. 1) what scale are we talking about? how do we determine that scale? once we have the scale, how much data do we need? one of the most interesting aspects of mandelbrot's work is the self-similarity at varying scales, from da...
by bgf
Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 y/o financial check up. How am I doing? Can I buy a model 3 performance?
Replies: 57
Views: 4011

Re: 30 y/o financial check up. How am I doing? Can I buy a model 3 performance?

pay back your dad then get it. you make a good income and youre maxing tax benefited space. looks good.
by bgf
Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question for the 5%...Anyone buying any individual stocks?
Replies: 51
Views: 4471

Re: Question for the 5%...Anyone buying any individual stocks?

Berkshire Hathaway, Markel, and Ebix. I owned some other stocks along the way, but they were smaller positions, and I sold them to consolidate into these three. First purchase of Ebix was in 2014, Berkshire in 2015, and Markel in 2016. I've never sold a share and have no intention of doing so any ti...
by bgf
Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Earnings Mirage
Replies: 1
Views: 700

The Earnings Mirage

One of my favorite 'bloggers' Jesse Livermore at Philosophical Economist just published another paper. https://osam.com/Commentary/the-earnings-mirage Some highlights as written by O'Shaughnessy in his Executive Summary: "Inflation doesn't just distort book values--it also distorts earnings. It caus...
by bgf
Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

...Black swans are interesting but i don't see how to utilize them in a sensible fashion into a BH style portfolio. my recollection from the book was to take little risk with 80-90% of the portfolio and barbell it with very high risk investments for the balance... I remember, near the end of the bo...
by bgf
Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

bobcat2, thank you for taking the time to post. im going to check out rubenstein's book; it sounds very interesting.

i thought Diebold was pretty fair in section 8 discussing K u and U.
by bgf
Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

1) he was fama's thesis adviser. No, he wasn't. Mandelbrot was never on the faculty at University of Chicago. Fama's advisers were William Alberts, Lawrence Fisher, Robert Graves, James Lorie, Merton Miller, Harry Roberts, and Lester Telser. Fama acknowledged Mandelbrot in a note in the published v...
by bgf
Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

I don't believe in totally efficient markets and I don't think Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger do either since their success shows the market can be beaten with a value methodology, correctly applied. All I need to know is that an index strategy will probably do better than other strategy I could ...
by bgf
Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

I most certainly did not write that Mandelbrot didn't understand basic statistics. What I did write about was that Mandelbrot and some of his followers claim the Central Limit Theorem does not apply to annual stock returns and that that claim appears to be invalid. And I explained why it appears to...
by bgf
Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

Mandelbrot was not a dunce, clearly, and I don't think anyone (including me) is guilty of suggesting that he was. He was a well-respected scientist and mathematician. That said, his study of finance was as an outsider.To say that it was a hobby for him probably undersells his mastery, but he had AF...
by bgf
Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

I can imagine that for some without much prior exposure to statistics reading Taleb would seem to be a revelatory experience. Taleb is good at creating controversy, self-promotion, and selling books. Everything BobK wrote is excellent, but IMHO these two sentences especially are deserving of a hear...
by bgf
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: Probabilities, Truth, and Consequences
Replies: 40
Views: 3983

Re: Allan Roth: Probabilities, Truth, and Consequences

if markets dropped 90% then i'd have a lot less money in retirement accounts, which i have no current access to anyway, and a lot less money in my taxable account, which would suck but again would create no immediate danger. if the spillover effects of the drop led to my wife losing her job (unlikel...
by bgf
Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

What are actionable aspects of these books for mere mortals (who should have nothing to do with options and leverage)? I don't think there are any. But I suppose I could stretch and say the one actionable item is to not to try to compete with these people and just invest in index funds. if modern p...
by bgf
Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

Also, I don't follow why the index market fund is the logical conclusion of the topic. If I'm understanding the material right, the mere notion that the market portfolio is the most efficient (even the whole idea of an efficient frontier) goes right out the window. I thought he meant that risk, as ...
by bgf
Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Vanguard to Merrill Edge
Replies: 111
Views: 13957

Re: Moving from Vanguard to Merrill Edge

IT doesn't seem right. ($0+$100k+$100k)/3 = $67k. So I would expect platinum or at least gold (if your averaging only includes last month) good point. just call customer service. i did for a different reason and found them very helpful. Perhaps depends on which customer service (did you mean BoA or...
by bgf
Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

So, let me modestly take the other side. When it comes to standard deviations, I am a "glass half full" type of guy - or to be precise, 95% full. It provides a robust framework, independent of asset time and time horizon. It is simple and robust. And it is good out to 2 to 3 standard deviations. An...
by bgf
Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 7923

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

OP, i too just finished misbehavior of markets and read taleb's books a while back. i can also vouch for the physics of wall street, which i really enjoyed. I'd highly recommend 'a man for all markets' by ed thorp! i think you'll really like it. at the end of the day, i like his conception of market...
by bgf
Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Vanguard to Merrill Edge
Replies: 111
Views: 13957

Re: Moving from Vanguard to Merrill Edge

I opened a Merrill Edge account more than two months ago with a transfer from Vanguard of > $100K and have yet to qualify for any tier of Preferred Rewards. The Merrill Edge and Bank of America accounts are both joint with my wife and me. I wonder if that is the problem. I secure messaged Merrill E...
by bgf
Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Vanguard to Merrill Edge
Replies: 111
Views: 13957

Re: Moving from Vanguard to Merrill Edge

I opened a Merrill Edge account more than two months ago with a transfer from Vanguard of > $100K and have yet to qualify for any tier of Preferred Rewards. The Merrill Edge and Bank of America accounts are both joint with my wife and me. I wonder if that is the problem. I secure messaged Merrill E...
by bgf
Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2412
Views: 434368

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

portfolio is up 14.8%.

net worth is up 15.1%.

been a good 6 months, but it basically syncs up with the bottom at the end of 2018... BH spreadsheet shows portfolio is only up 1.9% for the past full year.
by bgf
Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have nice car but too OCD to enjoy it.
Replies: 45
Views: 3140

Re: Have nice car but too OCD to enjoy it.

So it sits until the weekend and I drive the beater all week. I literally try to preserve the car. I feel like people like me shouldn’t have a nice car because I treat it like a child instead of the money pit depreciating mass that it is. Someone wake me up, and has anyone else ran into this behavi...
by bgf
Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ex-US higher value?
Replies: 11
Views: 2286

Re: Is ex-US higher value?

P/E is problematic too, how do you handle zero or negative earnings? How do you calculate P/E for a portfolio of stocks, do you aggregate the earnings or figure a weighted average of the individual companies? How about looking at the dividends? Price/Dividends or dividend yield is higher for intern...
by bgf
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 23995

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

The dollar has value because the us govt can defend it with the us military. Cryptos have value because they don't need to be defended in the first place. I think cryptos are here to stay and I'll buy more most likely. I don't think that's why the dollar has value... The reason the dollar has value...
by bgf
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 23995

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

until people shift from talking about how great bitcoin is because of its price to talking about how much they love using bitcoin, im not interested in it.

i can make/lose a lot of money in lots of dumb ways. bitcoin is just one of many right now.
by bgf
Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate stock picking performance?
Replies: 34
Views: 1678

Re: How to calculate stock picking performance?

the most accurate way to do this is to create a benchmark portfolio of VTI. take your starting portfolio value of your stock picks and create a benchmark portfolio containing only VTI, with whatever little cash left over. whenever you contribute or withdraw from your stockpicking portfolio, mirror t...
by bgf
Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs: MILN
Replies: 7
Views: 603

Re: The Case Against ETFs: MILN

nope. just buy VT. or VTI and VXUS. or VTI and VEU. or VTI and VEA and VWO. or just VTI. or just VOO. literally no one here will argue that ALL ETFs are good. nor would anyone here argue that ALL MUTUAL FUNDs are good. you have to bring a little bit of reason to this discussion. also, in before the ...
by bgf
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10524

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

I have a question for people on both sides of this issue. What would it take to change your mind? Or to put it scientifically, what would it take to falsify your theory? i invest in them because they exist. but, i guess, more fundamental than that, is the assumption that long term compound returns ...
by bgf
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10524

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

yes, you should. in fact, i think everyone should. we should shut down all the other stock markets. no need for any stock market other than the exchanges here in the US. everyone else is just silly investing in all those other companies. It would certainly remove the barriers that are different exp...
by bgf
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10524

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

yes, you should. in fact, i think everyone should. we should shut down all the other stock markets. no need for any stock market other than the exchanges here in the US.

everyone else is just silly investing in all those other companies.
by bgf
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 221
Views: 16375

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

one of my holdings, EBIX, dropped by as much as 20% today, and absolutely nobody knows why. not even the company, which issued this press release. https://www.ebix.com/press-release/ebix-not-aware-of-any-news-events-tariffs-that-would-negatively-impact-its-business-for-todays-abnormal-trading-activi...
by bgf
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7911

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

are we safely using the assumption of normality or not? With respect to OLS specifically, normality is not assumed. There are other places in financial economics where that assumption IS used to simplify theoretical proofs or empirical tests. But not in least squares regression. modern financial th...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7911

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

are we safely using the assumption of normality or not? With respect to OLS specifically, normality is not assumed. There are other places in financial economics where that assumption IS used to simplify theoretical proofs or empirical tests. But not in least squares regression. modern financial th...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7911

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

now we're getting somewhere. what distribution is assumed? power law? cauchy? do they just use one or do they somehow incorporate multiple? There is no assumption about distributions: least squares regression is completely agnostic about the distribution of underlying data. There ARE some other rel...
by bgf
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7911

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

BGF The problem with your argument is that they are in fact different things, with unique sources of risk, which is why they are included in asset pricing models that explain the variation of returns of diversified portfolios. And they are even different across asset classes, so value and momentum ...