Search found 831 matches

by bgf
Sat Apr 06, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5688

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

expected returns is like when i hear college students talk about how they "plan" on getting a 172 on the LSATs or a 36 on the MCAT.

take the test then you'll know. pretty simple.

same with asset allocation. start saving young and see how the market treats you. adjust accordingly.
by bgf
Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 92
Views: 6253

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

If I’m gonna gamble, I’d rather play poker. Now shuffle up and deal... Came here to essentially say this. I make it a point not to confuse my "funny money" and my savings/investments, blurring the lines between my gambling and my investments is problematic. i don't consider any of my investments as...
by bgf
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 92
Views: 6253

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

berkshire hathaway, markel, ebix. berkshire is trucking along very well. markel has made a strong strategic move to be a leader in the ILS market. time will tell. stock performance recently hit a rough patch. ebix has levered up a bit and is making very strong moves into India and potentially initia...
by bgf
Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not 100% World index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2236

Re: Why not 100% World index fund?

i invest in a single world fund wherever possible.
by bgf
Mon Mar 25, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSA Investment Options
Replies: 15
Views: 808

Re: HSA Investment Options

If the S&P500 fits your AA that’s a great choice. Keep in mind you don’t need to use this as/if medical expenses come up; you can pay out of pocket, keep the receipts, and let the tax-free growth continue. Yup, thats the plan. I haven't put my Roth or HSA into my AA yet, since they are small portio...
by bgf
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who discovered sequence of returns risk?
Replies: 47
Views: 2873

Re: Who discovered sequence of returns risk?

sequence of returns risk is a fancy phrase for 'this is how compounded portfolio returns work.' the problem with using ensemble averages as opposed to time averages is that ensemble averages tend to hide how important poor returns at the beginning can be, and they can be catastrophic. your portfolio...
by bgf
Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody tempted by the new iPads?
Replies: 37
Views: 3082

Re: Anybody tempted by the new iPads?

my old nexus 7 was my favorite device ever. I might get whatever competes with the mini, if there is anything. i thought this kind of device went extinct basically.
by bgf
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11249

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

If anything, it increases the need for ongoing planning and adjustments. of course i have plans and goals; they just don't involve the statistical torturing of an incomplete and changing data set. the benefit of this is primarily not allowing precise statistical tools to warp my understanding of re...
by bgf
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11249

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

Thank you for your response. You've actually made my point very well. You basically just 'winged it', and things worked out. I'm very glad that it did, I really am. But I am less willing to just keep my fingers crossed that whatever I'm doing is appropriate or sufficient. Maybe I'm just fooling mys...
by bgf
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11249

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

Thank you for your response. You've actually made my point very well. You basically just 'winged it', and things worked out. I'm very glad that it did, I really am. But I am less willing to just keep my fingers crossed that whatever I'm doing is appropriate or sufficient. Maybe I'm just fooling mys...
by bgf
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11249

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

I wish we could expunge the phrase "nobody knows nothin'" from the BH vocabulary. It doesn't actually help anyone. I suppose we could adopt the phrase "some people know nothin", but I think the moderators would frown upon that. knowing what you don't know is a fundamental tenet of being a BH. its p...
by bgf
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11249

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

If it weren't for past performance, how on earth would we even begin to determine an AA, for instance? i imagine you would take a look at the kinds of securities you'd like to invest in, government bond, corporate bond, public stock, etc., and figure out using your investing goals and the fundament...
by bgf
Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?
Replies: 101
Views: 14696

Re: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?

columbia wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:23 am
“Yogi Berra” wrote:You’ll never beat the market with active management, but it’s the only way to do it.
that's so good
by bgf
Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What time do you start your day?
Replies: 69
Views: 2912

Re: What time do you start your day?

I get to the office around 8am and leave between 5 and 5:30. I'm an attorney.
by bgf
Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Markel Corp (MKL) anyone?
Replies: 11
Views: 623

Re: Markel Corp (MKL) anyone?

I own Markel and won't be selling. I bought it for their profitable underwriting, management, and capital allocation strategy, with respect to both public and private companies. Do some research, but, at the end of the day, there's only so much you can do if you plan on holding long term. Results 10...
by bgf
Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to sack Warren Buffett?
Replies: 41
Views: 4089

Re: Time to sack Warren Buffett?

I'm not. Its arguably the most sound business I own, and I own thousands.
by bgf
Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard use a 40% allocation to International in their Balanced Funds?
Replies: 60
Views: 6502

Re: Why does Vanguard use a 40% allocation to International in their Balanced Funds?

another excellent question that can be simply answered with "market weight." it always changes, but its always the same.

vanguard total world
by bgf
Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Want no interest, dividends or distributions in 2019
Replies: 45
Views: 3806

Re: Want no interest, dividends or distributions in 2019

tj wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:31 pm
mhadden1 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:11 pm
Vanguard Total Stock Market just throws off the 2% or so in dividends.


He wants none. Berkshire Hathaway is the only answer.
yea no need to look further than berkshire but he could add markel (MKL) in as well.
by bgf
Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current expected return of stocks
Replies: 71
Views: 4642

Re: Current expected return of stocks

the 2018 semper augustus client letter does a good job of breaking down and explaining the historical ROE (return on equity) of the sp500. it also goes into great detail as to the downward adjustments that should be made to current publicized sp500 earnings. if you buy the sp500 at multiple "x" and...
by bgf
Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway buys Whole Life Insurance Policies?
Replies: 17
Views: 1977

Re: Berkshire Hathaway buys Whole Life Insurance Policies?

what page is this discussion? i just did a word search for "whole" "life" and "surrender" and im not seeing anything about this in the 2016 letter.
by bgf
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What interest rate to demand on private loan
Replies: 17
Views: 896

Re: What interest rate to demand on private loan

its their money to do what they want with, but it sounds like more hassle than its worth for just a $10k investment... even if you get 10%, you're upside is 1000 bucks per year? if you're gonna play with $10k at all, do it on something that can at least get you some return down the line... even then...
by bgf
Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current expected return of stocks
Replies: 71
Views: 4642

Re: Current expected return of stocks

I'm saying the method itself has to generate a range of values. For instance, that's what Vanguard's proprietary model does. A model that generates a single value is flawed at start. It is kind of saying that the next roll of a dice will show "3.5" Huh? The expected value of a dice roll IS 3.5. So ...
by bgf
Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current expected return of stocks
Replies: 71
Views: 4642

Re: Current expected return of stocks

the 2018 semper augustus client letter does a good job of breaking down and explaining the historical ROE (return on equity) of the sp500. it also goes into great detail as to the downward adjustments that should be made to current publicized sp500 earnings. if you buy the sp500 at multiple "x" and ...
by bgf
Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Cash Position
Replies: 71
Views: 5432

Re: Buffet's Cash Position

Why is Buffett still considered relevant? He has lost to index investing since 2004. EDIT: I guess it was more of a tie. You can spin this many ways. Compared to VTI and going from 1/2002 to 1/2019 BRK 8.64, VTI 7.81. Interestingly BRK has a low correlation of 0.47 to the market. Or for each of the...
by bgf
Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Cash Position
Replies: 71
Views: 5432

Re: Buffet's Cash Position

berkshire outperforms the market over decades. people criticize. berkshire has over $100b in cash and do posters discuss how much of a financial rock it is? nope. berkshire has dozens of diversified wholly owned operating companies. berkshire has large investments in dozens of publicly traded equiti...
by bgf
Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's Shareholder Letter for 2018
Replies: 43
Views: 4628

Re: Buffett's Shareholder Letter for 2018

two things, people of course like to focus on the stock picks but the operating earnings are insane. 1) berkshire mints cash. its unbelieveable.

2) "we hope to invest significant sums across borders." "there are also many other countries around the world that have bright futures."
by bgf
Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's Shareholder Letter for 2018
Replies: 43
Views: 4628

Re: Buffett's Shareholder Letter for 2018

I was surprised there weren't more share buybacks in Q4 when Berkshire was trading below 1.3 book....especially since Buffett says "Berkshire will be a significant repurchaser of its shares." $112 billion is a lot of cash to be sitting on!! We are 30% Berkshire these days...so I'm a hybrid Boglehea...
by bgf
Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"
Replies: 139
Views: 9596

Re: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54trh0Rre8 I used to hold the Total International Stock Market index, though I grew tired of the lagging performance, so I got out of it. I'm 100% in US equities. I keep going back and forth as to whether I want to get back into international. If I do choose to get ...
by bgf
Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"
Replies: 139
Views: 9596

Re: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54trh0Rre8 I used to hold the Total International Stock Market index, though I grew tired of the lagging performance, so I got out of it. I'm 100% in US equities. I keep going back and forth as to whether I want to get back into international. If I do choose to get ...
by bgf
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 126
Views: 14170

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:31 pm
The world is getting smaller and everything is connected. There's less reason to go international, because there's MORE correlation these days. And everyone is selling everywhere.
a global market cap strategy has saved me from so much cognitive dissonance, an example of which is above.
by bgf
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 126
Views: 14170

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

From 1980s to now, lot of US companies have become global. Also reverse is true. By owning stock in large US companies, you are already being exposed to global markets. owning companies that are domiciled in country "xyz" but do business globally is not comparable to owning countries domiciled all ...
by bgf
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 126
Views: 14170

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

For the sake of example, let’s say this person has 90% of their stock assets in international (e.g. VTIAX) and the other 10% in US companies (e.g. VTSAX). If our hypothetical investor were considering increasing exposure to US stocks to become more in line with their home country bias, would now be...
by bgf
Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 126
Views: 14170

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

From 1980s to now, lot of US companies have become global. Also reverse is true. By owning stock in large US companies, you are already being exposed to global markets. owning companies that are domiciled in country "xyz" but do business globally is not comparable to owning countries domiciled all ...
by bgf
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 327 Years of British Equity History
Replies: 19
Views: 2086

Re: 327 Years of British Equity History

Fascinating, thank you. My takeaways are the more prolonged periods of poor equity return, and the larger variance than I thought, of just about everything measured. Which I guess is a great argument for all kinds of diversification, and a good argument to invest defensively, whatever form that may...
by bgf
Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2864

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

I tend to agree with bgf - you can't just "demand" the returns to be higher. I can go up to some random person and say I demand 10 million dollars. How is that more ridiculous than the idea of investors "demanding" a return from a business to be higher than a certain other investment? "Demand" is b...
by bgf
Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2864

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

based on the responses, there are two approaches. 1) stocks and bonds are inherently different THINGS. therefore, they perform differently. :oops: 2) stocks are inherently more RISKY (whatever that specifically means), thus investors demand a higher future RETURN in exchange for bearing this risk. i...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many hours do you work and what do you outsource
Replies: 88
Views: 7564

Re: How many hours do you work and what do you outsource

Senior leadership position: 24/7 availability anywhere on the globe Regular week: 7 am - 5 pm 4 days week physically in office ; then available as needed for senior level decision making decisions or meetings ; day 5 working from home office or airplane. Non routine week 7am - 5pm physically in off...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2864

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

Looking at the next, say, 100 years in the US total stock and total bond markets. Assume the money is getting Roth-like tax treatment (no ongoing or terminal tax burden) and all dividends/distributions reinvested. No justifications on the basis of long-term historical data, please (“past performanc...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2864

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

pretty much everyone has referenced the equity risk premium, but this isn't the answer. if anything, the equity premium puzzle is the question . also, saying that investors "demand" a higher return is a posteriori hogwash. look, i'm an investor, and i say, here and now before all and sundry, "I DEM...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2864

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

asif408 wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:30 pm
the expected risk premium varies over time and is not always positive.
is that not proof that it fails as an answer to the question?
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2864

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

Why? Because if stocks return 10%, and that 10% is a safe figure provided only you hold them for at least thirty years, then an entrepreneur could offer a thirty-year zero coupon bond that pays a guaranteed 9%/year. I simply take your $1,000, invest it in stocks, watch it grow to $1000 * 1.1^30 = $...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 460
Views: 28498

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I think whole thread is a collective fail by the Boglehead community. Why the deference and applause for a market timing scheme? Why aren't forum veterans pointing out that buying and selling of an entire portfolio based on some economic indicators is ill-considered? Most folks who have put forth t...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2864

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

pretty much everyone has referenced the equity risk premium, but this isn't the answer. if anything, the equity premium puzzle is the question . also, saying that investors "demand" a higher return is a posteriori hogwash. look, i'm an investor, and i say, here and now before all and sundry, "I DEMA...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 203
Views: 11661

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Is Tanelorn Capital's current -370.00% return a new record? :D Currently -540% as Sears stock rose above $2 today, from the contest starting price of $0.30. All these expert fund managers and no one was contrarian enough to go long the bankrupt dying retail chain - go figure. But that’s how you mak...
by bgf
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2864

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

A bond is a promise by the company to pay you a certain amount of interest for a certain amount of time in exchange for your principal investment. You have nothing to do with the company other than you have become one of its creditors. You are loaning the company money. Bonds are not without risk. Y...
by bgf
Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1601
Views: 97198

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

i'll give it up to OP, this is not a harebrained strategy. here at BH we're almost irrationally conditioned to think that all active strategies will fail, but that isn't the case. the odds might be against you, and it is certaintly a tough game to play, and as a matter of logic and math all active i...
by bgf
Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1601
Views: 97198

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

OP, if this were to fail, is it more likely to fail:
1) with consistently weak returns, or
2)a drastically bad return over a short period.

same with success, is it more likely to:
1) consistently outperform, or
2) have a few incredibly big years that account for most of the outperformance.
by bgf
Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on VTWAX [Vanguard Total World Stock]
Replies: 107
Views: 9623

Re: Opinion on VTWAX

Who knows, probably at least one if not all will be a small obscure market for sure. I am talking much longer time frames than 1 year. Do you really invest in equities for 1 year timeframes? In 2018 they were Ukraine +80.39% Macedonia +30.41% Qatar +20.87% nobody knows for 2019 or 2020 or the perio...
by bgf
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on VTWAX [Vanguard Total World Stock]
Replies: 107
Views: 9623

Re: Opinion on VTWAX

Using VT/VTWAX is to me a very emotionally invested position in the belief all markets are equal with the same efficiencies, protections and transparencies. It also suggests the inability to distinguish which areas of the world have the best and worse long term prospects. There is even some suggest...
by bgf
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2481
Views: 1552269

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

the fundamental ideas and purpose of the "three fund" are what matter, not the practical implementation of it.

going world + bond isnt a mark against the three fund. if anything its high praise.