Search found 1068 matches

by bgf
Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Nobody knows nuthin'. "When measured in three-decade increments, bonds did better than stocks as recently as 2011" Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run Maybe investors should question the dogma of “stocks for the long run.” History shows that a portfolio of bonds has outperformed stocks surprisin...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

I wonder if the pro 100% stocks crowd would change their views if we have another great depression, with a 80% or more crash in the stock market, or a Japan like stock market that declines for many years. None of these outcomes seem likely due to the past 10 years of US stock performance. Search in...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15058

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

i dont own any bonds at all. I suggest reading this post: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing . Good luck! we have two incomes. we have an emergency fund in a savings account. we have a much larger taxable account. we have retirement accounts (roth and tax deferred) that are much larger than ta...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

i dont know and i dont care either way. the risk of 70/30, in my above example, was losing $100,000 in a 10 year period by investing 30% in bonds while accumulating and making regular contributions. no withdrawals were planned and none were needed. the investor who chooses to be $100,000 poorer aft...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

i dont know and i dont care either way. the risk of 70/30, in my above example, was losing $100,000 in a 10 year period by investing 30% in bonds while accumulating and making regular contributions. no withdrawals were planned and none were needed. the investor who chooses to be $100,000 poorer afte...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15058

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

Maybe the bank sees risk in bonds in general? I believe this "risk", which may or may not show up, is perhaps why Vanguard no longer recommends U.S. bonds only but also includes international bonds. i could buy vanguards intermediate bond fund and hope to make 2-3% moving forward. it has averaged ~...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

EDIT: Separately, I think you're significantly overstating how volatile stocks actually are. 50% drops are uncommon. It simply isn't accurate to state that "The 100/0 usually suffer a big drop (50%) every 10 years or less." I don't really care to get into the precise details here, but I want to not...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15058

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

Maybe the bank sees risk in bonds in general? I believe this "risk", which may or may not show up, is perhaps why Vanguard no longer recommends U.S. bonds only but also includes international bonds. i could buy vanguards intermediate bond fund and hope to make 2-3% moving forward. it has averaged ~...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15058

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/realistic-investment-results/ interesting blog post shows how 100/0, 60/40, and 0/100 compare historically given consistent contributions, DCA. also has a great chart showing why the Japan bubble story that is constantly thrown around here is really just propaganda. the...
by bgf
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 80
Views: 4459

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

If you are ready to pay $50K+ or more, you can buy the most expensive papers or books you can imagine (the equivalent of a Rembrandt or Picasso that would be worth $10M+). For instance, for $60K, today (November 10), you can buy on line a 1937 handwritten letter sent by Albert Einstein to his son d...
by bgf
Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 80
Views: 4459

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

watches, art, antique/exotic cars, whisky/wine... all the fun stuff that poor people dream about and wealthy people try desperately to be passionate about yet still turn into numbers on a page.

just being snarky... kind of.
by bgf
Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2516
Views: 462796

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

24% Great, since everything is on autopilot. Was shocked until I looked at my numbers for past 2 years - I forgot about the ~14% drop in 4Q 2018 im global weight so essentially treading water since the high in feb of 2018. if i were 100% US the performance would be better but still not amazing, fro...
by bgf
Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15058

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/realistic-investment-results/ interesting blog post shows how 100/0, 60/40, and 0/100 compare historically given consistent contributions, DCA. also has a great chart showing why the Japan bubble story that is constantly thrown around here is really just propaganda. the ...
by bgf
Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no one created a etf of dividend free stocks
Replies: 32
Views: 2797

Re: Why no one created a etf of dividend free stocks

I own one other one that will not pay dividends, Markel (MKL).
by bgf
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for my 30 yr old daughter
Replies: 13
Views: 932

Re: Asset Allocation for my 30 yr old daughter

If they dont want to manage it themselves why not just put them in a Target Date Fund?
by bgf
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why ever buy & hold a LT treasury?
Replies: 60
Views: 2909

Re: Why ever buy & hold a LT treasury?

this is a good thread, and im glad OP asked this question. it teases out what it means to actually own a bond, which is something that too often gets obscured by intricate and formidable discussions here about yield curves, correlation, convexity, etc etc. when you buy a bond, you loan someone (a go...
by bgf
Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of companies with $1.5 billion in revenue?
Replies: 7
Views: 681

Re: List of companies with $1.5 billion in revenue?

Ok, I'll bite - what is the purpose of such a list for you? I am a docent at Alcatraz. I just started giving a talk on Al Capone. In 1927, the Supreme Court ruled that illegally gotten income still needed to be reported to the IRS and taxes paid. The defendant (not Capone) had argued that reporting...
by bgf
Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Monopolies efficient?
Replies: 10
Views: 461

Re: Are Monopolies efficient?

monopolies are incredibly efficient at running competitors out of business (legally and otherwise) and making huge profits.
by bgf
Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Replies: 26
Views: 1442

Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.

microsoft and apple make up almost 10% of VOO, sp500 fund.

im not worried about Aramco making up a much smaller portion of VT, world fund.
by bgf
Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

if you are young with a small portfolio then holding 30% bonds in your 401k is not going to save you from these apocalyptic hypotheticals about years unemployed during a recession while standing outside in the rain all day for your daily ration of avocado toast. bgf, << these apocalyptic hypothetic...
by bgf
Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

if you are young with a small portfolio then holding 30% bonds in your 401k is not going to save you from these apocalyptic hypotheticals about years unemployed during a recession while standing outside in the rain all day for your daily ration of avocado toast. klangfool will respond with a pseudo-...
by bgf
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

I think the best thing an investor can do is plan ahead so that one can hopeful avoid bad investor behavior when a market places you under a lot of stress, i.e. sell low or trying to out think the market. Set up a investor policy statement and follow it through good and bad times. Just on observati...
by bgf
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Total Loss Negotiation questions
Replies: 10
Views: 551

Re: Car Total Loss Negotiation questions

in my last accident, the tires were newer than that and i think they gave me like $120 or something. it just is what it is. you kind of get screwed a bit on property damage. their valuation very well may not be 100% fair, and you may be able to prove that, but beyond a point they'll just make you pr...
by bgf
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Total Loss Negotiation questions
Replies: 10
Views: 551

Re: Car Total Loss Negotiation questions

adjusters have very little negotiating wiggle room on property damage, and in my experience, the way to get higher values is not by disputing their method but by giving them new information, eg, i just put brand new tires on it worth 'x,' here is my receipt as proof. otherwise, be prepared to take t...
by bgf
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

A) If you want to debate and discuss based on the historical record, then, we have to use the historical record to judge the result. The historical record says 1% per year. B) If you want to debate and discuss based on any single person's prediction, then, I could say the same with 70/30 beating 10...
by bgf
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Is this a troll post or are you serious? There is no way you believe that 100/0 can't beat 70/30 over 1 day, 1 week, 1 year, 5 years, and so on right? I could almost understand someone messing up the logic of the best choice for a time period for the best choice for a year but that first sentence i...
by bgf
Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.
Replies: 113
Views: 7318

Re: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.

no, its not survivorship bias. most stocks underperform the market, but the few that don't greatly outperform it. you'll only ever benefit by hitting one of those outperformers if you hold onto it for a long period of time. many people hit on them only to hold them for too short a period of time. I...
by bgf
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.
Replies: 113
Views: 7318

Re: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.

good points. OP has already picked them, so the only thing left to do is just hold them and not sell/tinker. very hard to do. i think it makes the most sense, if you invest in individual stocks, to not sell them. your goal is to outperform, and the best chance you have of that is not by trading, bu...
by bgf
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you reconcile these two opposing views
Replies: 42
Views: 3659

Re: How do you reconcile these two opposing views

I believe the market is difficult to beat, impossibly so in aggregate (we can't all be above average). I believe there are some who are able to garner something extra through skill, unique information, etc... I know there are others who try to exploit behavioral weaknesses, marketing risky securiti...
by bgf
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.
Replies: 113
Views: 7318

Re: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.

Another complicating factor in running an individual stock portfolio is that some stocks will do better than others over time and you might find yourself top heavy in a few stocks. This has been my experience, I tend to let the winners run. It is a tough decision whether or not to rebalance your in...
by bgf
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Justifying Non World Market Cap
Replies: 38
Views: 2316

Re: Justifying Non World Market Cap

should i invest in international companies? yes, i think id like to do that. there are a lot of great companies worldwide, and id love to be a part owner of them. i can do so easily and cheaply. yay! ugh, so how much should i invest then? 10%? 20%? 40%? 60%? ugh, i just dont know! how am i to choose...
by bgf
Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: investment check-up, 34-year-old student
Replies: 26
Views: 2584

Re: investment check-up, 34-year-old student

Roth 401k doesn’t make sense for you. Need to move all 401ks to traditional ASAP and use the tax savings for your ROTH IRAs. Why doesn't a Roth 401k make sense? (It might not, I just don't understand why it doesn't.) We max both Roth IRAs each year, and while our marginal tax rate is high, at 31%, ...
by bgf
Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Justifying Non World Market Cap
Replies: 38
Views: 2316

Re: Justifying Non World Market Cap

Another argument that you didn't mention (at least not explicitly) is the home bias, which most investors face, even if they live in Germany, or Peru... For U.S. investors, the vast majority of them will need to spend from their portfolios in U.S. dollars, not euros or yen or any other currency. So...
by bgf
Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are these the next generations good old day?
Replies: 8
Views: 1528

Re: Are these the next generations good old day?

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:32 pm
These certainly are the best days of my life so far, but that has very little to do with the stock and bond markets.
ditto.
by bgf
Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 31
Views: 3548

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

https://ycharts.com/companies/USMV/tota ... management

interesting chart. not sure what exactly it means other than lots of money chasing min vol...
by bgf
Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2516
Views: 462796

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:53 pm
I am somewhat surprised how many Bogleheads calculate or track performance.
eh, BHs tend to like money and numbers, which makes counting our money one of our favorite past times :D
by bgf
Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.
Replies: 113
Views: 7318

Re: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.

30+ stocks? if you are actually capable of holding all of them for 10+ years, then id say keep them and add all new money to VT or VTI. if you are going to mess around with them, trim here, buy more there, etc then you'll probably underperform substantially. you've bought them, now just let them do...
by bgf
Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.
Replies: 113
Views: 7318

Re: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.

30+ stocks? if you are actually capable of holding all of them for 10+ years, then id say keep them and add all new money to VT or VTI. if you are going to mess around with them, trim here, buy more there, etc then you'll probably underperform substantially. you've bought them, now just let them do ...
by bgf
Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Ive been doing some research and have had some discussions with some friends who are more investment-savvy than myself, about bonds. One of my friends said that you should always have some bonds no matter how risk tolerant one may be. Another friend said the same thing, that it doesnt make much sen...
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should a mid 30s Asset Allocation be?
Replies: 45
Views: 2292

Re: What should a mid 30s Asset Allocation be?

I'm in a somewhat similar financial situation. Besides some emergency cash, I would keep all your money in stocks. I think bonds are a really stupid investment at the current interest rates for anyone who isn't retiring for another 30+ years. You just need to be comfortable with the volatility of s...
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should a mid 30s Asset Allocation be?
Replies: 45
Views: 2292

Re: What should a mid 30s Asset Allocation be?

I'm in a somewhat similar financial situation. Besides some emergency cash, I would keep all your money in stocks. I think bonds are a really stupid investment at the current interest rates for anyone who isn't retiring for another 30+ years. You just need to be comfortable with the volatility of s...
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

so, when i don't need any bonds, im still supposed to own 30% bonds because "it is possible that 70/30 may return higher than 100/0"? no thanks. bgf, If you prefer to take more risks and get less return, it is your choice. Over the shorter period, 70/30 has a better return than 100/0. You based on ...
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should a mid 30s Asset Allocation be?
Replies: 45
Views: 2292

Re: What should a mid 30s Asset Allocation be?

I'm in a somewhat similar financial situation. Besides some emergency cash, I would keep all your money in stocks. I think bonds are a really stupid investment at the current interest rates for anyone who isn't retiring for another 30+ years. You just need to be comfortable with the volatility of s...
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations?lang=en OP, Take a look at the above URL and ask yourself why 100/0 makes any sense? The additional risk brings you minimal average return. So, why bother? Pick an AA between 70/30 and 30/70. KlangFool 1.0% retur...
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps
Replies: 66
Views: 4842

Re: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps

i dont think i'll ever understand how someone can do this but won't accept investing in individual companies. seems just as complicated, difficult, and unpredictable as trying to do fundamental, or, god forbid, even technical analysis.
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 295
Views: 17546

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

100% equities makes sense to me. 90/10 does not. even 80/20 doesn't really make much sense to me. 70/30 starts making sense and on up from there. i don't think im going to hold any bonds until i hold about 40% in bonds. in other words, when i need bonds, im gonna own a good deal of them. when i dont...
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should a mid 30s Asset Allocation be?
Replies: 45
Views: 2292

Re: What should a mid 30s Asset Allocation be?

interesting situation. my wife and i are mid-30s with a fraction of your income (attorney and teacher), and we are 100% equities. while our income and costs are nowhere near yours ($3k a month eating out!?!?!?!? :shock: unfathomable to me, honestly) our emergency fund isn't that far off. i think tha...
by bgf
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High School Kid - in soccer
Replies: 14
Views: 1417

Re: High School Kid - in soccer

i quit playing travel and school soccer my freshman year of high school to focus on running cross county, indoor track, and outdoor track. while i ran competitively in college, i still regret quitting soccer entirely. i went from being part of a team atmosphere to training by myself (running is a lo...
by bgf
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 35
Views: 3788

Re: $930,000 new money to invest

personally, while i find it hard to imagine actually getting that much money all at one time, i'm pretty sure that of the money i selected to invest, i would invest it all in VT as soon as it was immediately available. that money is not different than the all the other money i have invested in VT, w...
by bgf
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?
Replies: 21
Views: 1934

Re: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?

unregulated, unrestricted capitalism will tend towards monopoly. it is an unusual time in history that our current monopolies sell "free" services, eg. facebook/instagram, google (alphabet), linkedin (microsoft). hard to bust up the 'trusts' when they give stuff away for free (or do they!!!!?). some...