Search found 69 matches

by Regressor
Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

This may be of interest: Alien lawfully present in the United States. Certain aliens with household income below 100% of the federal poverty line are not eligible for Medicaid because of their immigration status. You may qualify for the PTC if your household income is less than 100% of the federal poverty line if you meet all of the following requirements. ... https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i8962#en_US_2023_publink100077021 So it seems you may just have to somehow convince the system that they really are not eligible for medicaid, due to the green card provisions? This is very interesting and potentially solves our issue, THANK YOU. :sharebeer I am puzzled by the representative that I spoke on the phone with. She was practically telling ...
by Regressor
Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

However, the conditions my my parents' legal status (USA resident with green card) states that they cannot use any "means-based" programs, which MedicAid is but Obamacare/ACA is not. So they are not supposed to apply for medicaid, but if they try to apply for ACA coverage the system won't let them, instead directing them to medicaid due to low income? What if they overstate their expected income on the ACA site? This will reduce their subsidies, but be corrected when they file taxes. As long as income is at least 100% of poverty they are still eligible for subsidies. (I can't imagine there'd be a clawback of the subsidies even if actual income ends up below 100% of poverty, but I have no idea what the law is on that.) Exactly, th...
by Regressor
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

HereToLearn wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 2:12 pm Can you gift them enough money to result in an additional $3K of interest/Treasury earnings?

I didn't see their ages, and do not know what will happen once they are 65 and age out of ACA plans.
No that's the problem, now that I have a baby and parents are here, saving money and paying for the house and all the expenses in California, it is hard to save more money apart from the 401k contributions. I mean, I theoretically could do it, but the 3k of additional interest this year will become 4k next year, 5k the year after etc because the limit keeps increasing. So I am trying to find a different way of doing it.
by Regressor
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

You could buy them health insurance outside of the ACA "Obamacare" health exchange. They could only be on ACA exchange insurance until age 65. Thanks for your comment! But this is only true for the 99% of people who qualify for Medicare after they turn 65. My parents don't because they haven't had their green cards for more than 5 years and they haven't worked in the USA for more than 10 years. That's my understanding. Check the Medicare 5 year residency rule carefully. I read that the 5 years must be CONSECUTIVE time so leaving the U.S. to be in Europe or elsewhere for a time could negate the time in U.S. rule? I personally would check Medicare.gov for any regulations. I am pretty sure that you aren't breaking residency status i...
by Regressor
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

My family is blessed with our first baby and we are lucky enough that my parents were willing to move from Europe to come and live with us to take care of the baby. That is sort of a custom, a common thing where I came from. I offered to pay my parents for doing so but the idea is offensive/repulsive to them. The last few years they were earning income by renting a house in the Mediterranean. They sold the house for $500k, transferred the money to the USA and invested it all mostly in individual long term treasuries which pay around 5% (they aren't interested in the stock market and have zero appetite for risk and they ignore interest rate risk). This brings them around $25.000 per year in interest income and they still aren't getting any ...
by Regressor
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

Find self-employment for either of your parents. They need about 5000 in self-employed income for tax return purposes. Then they will be eligible for Obamacare. This is correct and this is what we did last year. However my parents are taking care of my child and they are able to do it if they both do it, but not if one of them does it. My mom is very methodical, knows a bunch about raising children, was a stay at home mom etc but she now has trouble walking, her knees are bad. So she can't really carry the baby and do anything that requires physical work, and taking care of a baby does. On the other hand my dad is as strong as he was in his prime, but he spent our childhood grinding 5am to 7pm in order to provide for us and lacks the knowl...
by Regressor
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

Apparently Medi-Cal (Medicaid) was expanded to cover immigrants regardless of status. Doesn't Kaiser (HMO) take Medi-Cal? It might not be so different from the European system. I did more research on this. When I was in contact with Covered-California, they advised me to apply for Medi-Cal and that it is legal. However, I think it is legal from the state perspective but illegal from federal perspective because they haven't been in the country for more than 5 years (after which they can also become citizens so any limitation would be moot). To clarify, state implements how to distribute the MedicAid funds and the state decided that everyone can apply and get MedicAid. However, the conditions my my parents' legal status (USA resident with gr...
by Regressor
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

You do not need to pay Medicare/social security if you hire your own parents. But I believe you would have to pay them minimum wage and follow other FLSA requirements. That is what is preventing you from paying them just $3000 for a years worth of childcare. Definitely cannot pay them as contractors unless they run a daycare business separate from your household. But if my CPA is correct that I do not have to pay them at all, and if it is correct that I could pay them if I wanted to, why would I not be able to use both of those statements and pay them for 2 months in the year, and the remaining 10 months they can "gift" me the labor of taking care of my baby? Basically, I know that this sounds iffy, but I am curious if anyone kno...
by Regressor
Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

Thank you everyone for the replies.

Just to clarify, my parents are here legally, they have a green card and came here to "join the family" i.e. me, and I'm an American citizen. So everything is kosher on that front.

It seems that the only remaining question is what kind of taxes do we have to pay if I end up paying them some symbolic salary for taking care of my baby.

I know that there are some special rules when employing parents. And I'll research about filling "Schedule H" as WCI instructed me (btw loved your book, I think that reading the book introduced me to bogleheads, so thank you!)
by Regressor
Sat Mar 16, 2024 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

My in-laws actually were OK with me paying them and I resented that for years only because they didn't insist on refusing (as I got older I got over it) Yes, where I come from grand parents just help out from their heart. But that's besides the issue. In your case just gift them the money and there will be no tax issues. No gift tax issues under $17K times 2 ($34K). If over that limit it's just a form that I doubt most people ever fill out to deduct from your estate value. Nice of you to look out for them. In my case my parents had almost an ideal life in Europe - they made enough money for an upper middle class quality of life by working very little (renting apartments to tourists a free months per year). Then they came here to help with ...
by Regressor
Sat Mar 16, 2024 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Re: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

PaunchyPirate wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 8:42 am You could buy them health insurance outside of the ACA "Obamacare" health exchange. They could only be on ACA exchange insurance until age 65.
Thanks for your comment!
But this is only true for the 99% of people who qualify for Medicare after they turn 65. My parents don't because they haven't had their green cards for more than 5 years and they haven't worked in the USA for more than 10 years. That's my understanding.
by Regressor
Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications
Replies: 33
Views: 3118

Paying for grandparents to babysit, medical insurance implications

My family is blessed with our first baby and we are lucky enough that my parents were willing to move from Europe to come and live with us to take care of the baby. That is sort of a custom, a common thing where I came from. I offered to pay my parents for doing so but the idea is offensive/repulsive to them. The last few years they were earning income by renting a house in the Mediterranean. They sold the house for $500k, transferred the money to the USA and invested it all mostly in individual long term treasuries which pay around 5% (they aren't interested in the stock market and have zero appetite for risk and they ignore interest rate risk). This brings them around $25.000 per year in interest income and they still aren't getting any p...
by Regressor
Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)
Replies: 17
Views: 2452

Re: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)

You have a lot of income but you also have pay a LOT to taxes so you are not as rich as you might feel. It is sort of an arbitrary number for for "easy" like you asked a house in the ballpark of $1.5 million might be doable with a $300K 20% downpayment and a $1.2 million dollar mortgage. If you are in a high cost of living area that might not be enough to get you a nice house with an ADU like you want. 1.5m buys like a 1000 sq ft house on a 5000 sq ft lot:). 1.5m the low side for a 600k income. The upper side is probably something like 3.0m. Go ask the bank and see what they will approve you for. That is the max. The question then is are you comfortable with that? You would need to look through your spending to see what you can d...
by Regressor
Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)
Replies: 17
Views: 2452

Re: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)

This is an interesting scenario and you seem to really want to do it and also want people to encourage you. People brought up the question of will you owe taxes on the 0% loan, which Is important. Also you're comparing no loan vs the 600K loan over 30 years. How confident are you that you'll live in this place that long? Don't forget that these are taxable accounts and you'll likely pay a high tax rate on those earnings. Well I do want to buy a house. I sort of want to see the worst possible scenario if I do it. I am presenting the most optimistic scenario just to play the devils advocate, not because I think it will happen. I sort of think that thinking of the benefit only as a 40k per year value is too conservative but if I think of it a...
by Regressor
Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)
Replies: 17
Views: 2452

Re: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)

Simplest way I can think to decide would be to consider the saved interest. Estimate a mortgage at 7% on $600,000 would be $42,000. You said she is underpaid $100,000. At least half of that implied $42k interest would be tax deductible so the value is even less than that. Not to mention the strong possibility of interest rates dropping sometime over the 30 years presenting a refinancing opportunity. I agree that the employer is winning here. Thank you for this comment. I also think that the 0% interest has some tax implications as well. I think that the difference between 0% and some market rate has to be reported as income, which further diminishes the value of the 0% interest loan. However, I have been thinking about it from another pers...
by Regressor
Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)
Replies: 17
Views: 2452

Re: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)

Thank you so much to everyone for your thoughtful comments. I really appreciate it. I noticed that I received a lot of advice related to my wife changing the job but that is not an option. Let me elaborate: she is very happy at her job, she works less than 26 weeks per year which is extremely good even for her profession and even when she works, she gets help from residents in the hospital and she has more of a advisory role, so her job is very easy and convenient. This allows her to spend the time with family and I decided that I should sacrifice some of my free time and well being for better pay since as a software engineer I will never be able to get the kind of job that she has - I will always have to work 40 hour weeks even if I were t...
by Regressor
Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house can we afford (unusual situation)
Replies: 17
Views: 2452

How much house can we afford (unusual situation)

My wife is a physician and her job is offering up to 600k of 0% interest 30 year Non-Amortizing loan for a house (meaning, we take the money now and return 600k in 30 years, when it's worth way less). We just need to provide at least 10% downpayment for the house. If she stops working there or we sell the house we need to return the money. Her salary is below market by about 100k (hence the 0% interest loan - they pay 600k now but save 100k each year for 30 years potentially) but the workload is low and enjoyable so she can work there indefinitely (and she thinks she will want to). I am not sure how to think about this 600k that they are offering. We live in a HCOL area, high tax state and have a kid, second one on the way and already think...
by Regressor
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Macroeconomics and the current market questions
Replies: 28
Views: 1840

Re: Macroeconomics and the current market questions

Can someone clarify, if FED decides to buy unlimited amount of corporate debt, does that mean that there will be no more bankruptcies in the USA? Why would any company ever go bust, no matter how poor management decisions are, if they can get more money from FED?
by Regressor
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [2018 tax return - How does it compare to previous years?]
Replies: 441
Views: 43467

Re: Tax 2018: Shock and Awe

With no change in salary, my by-monthly paycheck is $32 higher, so a bit below $800 better than last year. However, this year I'm not getting money back from the government but owing it instead with the total change being around 1000, after including $3000 for capital loss that I didn't have last year. So in the end, I'm counting that I'm at a loss roughly about $500.
I live in NYC.
by Regressor
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 139211

Re: Why are your NOT buying rental properties?

Here are two scenarios (I am simplifying them to make a point on leverage): (1) Put $80 k in RE ETF. Let’s assume you make 8% per year (after fees). After 9 years, your money would double to $160 k and after 18 years, your money would double again to $320 k. (2) Put $80 k (20% down payment) on $400 k house. Lets assume a modest 4% appreciation per year and your tenants pay for all expenses (mortgage, property tax, fixes, property manager, etc). After 18 years, the house would double to $800 k. So $800 k vs. $320 k. That is a big difference! Why would you compare only these two scenarios? You're comparing apples and oranges. Where's the scenario where you put $80k in a margin account and buy REITs using leverage? If you compare treasury bil...
by Regressor
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?
Replies: 33
Views: 2623

Re: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?

Doc wrote: Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:46 am
Nate79 wrote: Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:04 am Don't you think moving 10% of part of your portfolio from bonds to shorter duration bonds is a pretty minor change? All of the bonds in my portfolio are currently in TRowe Price Stable value fund which allows me zero worry about any losses on the bond side.
Right it is a minor change "about any losses on the bond side". But it a much larger change in the negative correlation with equities in a stock market crash.
This is my reasoning a well, but shouldn't you then exchange your short term corporate bonds for the intermediate treasuries instead of short treasuries?
by Regressor
Wed May 23, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help please with short term - 5yr - investment plan
Replies: 9
Views: 1279

Re: Help please with short term - 5yr - investment plan

Obviously it depends on your marginal tax rate, state of residency and investment goal, but generally I'd put 40% in a 5 year treasury note (yield curve steep enough for me), 40% in a 5 year TIPS (auction is this summer, mid August) and 20% IJS, a good small cap value fund. You're avoiding state taxes and expenses with 80% of your funds, protected from inflation with TIPS, there's a potential for growth with IJS so you won't miss a potential bull market entirely and if the market tanks your treasuries could increase in price.
by Regressor
Sun May 20, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Young Doctor Couple - Starting Work, Starting to Invest
Replies: 31
Views: 4082

Re: Young Doctor Couple - Starting Work, Starting to Invest

My wife is in a similar situation to you, neurology residency in a tristate area. I have a contrarian advice - don't focus on accumulation as much. I'd contribute a bit to 403b for some employer match, max out Roth IRAs and focus on quality of life and your marriage. (Also, forget about the bond funds until after the residency - you can only hope that your investments lose 50% of the value while you're in residency... Oh and have a bigger emergency fund). The next few years are going to be tough. Spend your vacations in the Caribbean, Europe and similar; have a date night at least once per month in a nice restaurant in Manhattan; if you ever have golden weekends at the same time go to Montauk. You can finance all these things with less than...
by Regressor
Sat May 05, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 9416

Re: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?

Paying down the mortgage seems sensible to me, but only up to a point. You should still have enough bonds to rebalance your portfolio. For example, if my desired asset allocation is 80/20 and I have $100.000, then I want to have enough money to rebalance and buy stocks when they're on sale, during a recession. If stocks go down 50% my 80k would drop to 40k and assuming that my bonds do not lose value, my portfolio would be 60k. I should be able to rebalance back to 80/20, which means that I'd sell 8k of my bonds and buy stocks. In this scenario I wouldn't touch my other 12k of bonds so they'd be useless for rebalancing. Knowing this, I'd be ready to use that 12k for paying down the mortgage as that money would be earning more than the divid...
by Regressor
Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans
Replies: 30
Views: 4373

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans

Copied from a recent topic: So your own financial plan still assumes or depends on 7% real returns? I don't need a return prediction to save and plan for retirement. I do it the good old way: I save as much as I can, while staying reasonable about it (e.g. without living like a pauper). If I was to listen to prognosticators, I would have to save more when "expected returns are low" and therefore invest more when the market is expensive. I would also save less when "expected returns are high" and, therefore, invest less when the market is cheap. Buy more when high, buy less when low. What a plan! :oops: I think that you misunderstood what it means "expected returns are low". It means that market is expensive, l...
by Regressor
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans
Replies: 30
Views: 4373

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans

Copied from a recent topic: As soon as you hear someone talking about "expected returns", CAPE, or any other return predictor, don't walk! RUN! So your own financial plan still assumes or depends on 7% real returns? I don't need a return prediction to save and plan for retirement. I do it the good old way: I save as much as I can, while staying reasonable about it (e.g. without living like a pauper). If I was to listen to prognosticators, I would have to save more when "expected returns are low" and therefore invest more when the market is expensive. I would also save less when "expected returns are high" and, therefore, invest less when the market is cheap. Buy more when high, buy less when low. What a plan! ...
by Regressor
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond’s Variable Rate Will Fall To 2.22% On May 1
Replies: 36
Views: 6414

Re: I Bond’s Variable Rate Will Fall To 2.22% On May 1

Is there any advantage to waiting till May first to buy the 10k worth of I bonds as opposed to buying now?
by Regressor
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: emergency fund
Replies: 2
Views: 832

Re: emergency fund

Yes if you pay taxes. Why wouldn't you put all of it in the muni money market fund? I'm living in NY so I am using VYFXX, vanguard NY money market fund.
by Regressor
Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning
Replies: 174
Views: 23327

Re: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning

Someone with financial experience that may actually have something to offer! Can you share your 3 fund portfolio and it's returns over the past year? Sure, Taylor's 3 fund portfolio is at the top of the page: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=88005 This is a popular book that many here use for tilting and/or factor investing (Larry is a very popular author who is very up to date with the latest portfolio analysis research, I think that he just published an updated version of this book): https://www.amazon.com/Reducing-Risk-Black-Swans-Volatility-ebook/dp/B00KC5UDMS And here are other recommendations: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_recommendations_and_reviews Btw, I'm definitely not an expert on this forum. I...
by Regressor
Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning
Replies: 174
Views: 23327

Re: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning

@md&pharmacist I think most probably don't believe you but they're just trying to be polite. I'll own up to that being my opinion in any case. Thanks so much. I don't want to try to convince anyone to believe what I did if they don't even believe I could do it. My friend, I don't think that you're lying, I believe that you believe that you outperformed the market, but I'm almost certain that you didn't. You just don't know how to calculate your return, especially risk adjusted return and compare it to a benchmark. That doesn't make you less smart or not as good of a physician, just a bit overconfident which isn't very rare for people in your profession - my wife is a physician too, from a top residency program and med school in the cou...
by Regressor
Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning
Replies: 174
Views: 23327

Re: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning

Beating the market during the bull run it easy - buy riskier investments and your return should be larger than the market because more risk should be compensated with more return. I have several physicians in my family - they're all convinced that beating the market is pretty simple "you just have to have an intelligent system, buy and sell at the correct time, choose your investments wisely and so on" :) I worked as a quant for a few of the largest hedge funds, worked with several portfolio managers and implemented their strategies so my family and relatives allowed me to examine their portfolios and their long term return actually doesn't beat the market and I suspect that MD&pharmacist didn't beat the market either it we co...
by Regressor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the endgame for Millennials?
Replies: 128
Views: 13781

Re: What is the endgame for Millennials?

Did you bother to read the thread at all?? Most of it, why??? Because many of us have said the Millennials aren't that different from other generations, and most 20 somethings don't and never have saved for retirement and spent foolishly. We've already cleared up your points of argument. :wink: I've read the first page and a half and noticed many malicious comments and didn't notice them being addressed directly. I mean, this whole "these damn kids deserve it, they choose to be homeless instead of buying a nice house" argument is really irritating, it ignores how much luck has to do with someone's wealth and shows an incredible lack of empathy. But I'm sorry if I'm being redundant... Maybe take the time to read the entire forum. ...
by Regressor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the endgame for Millennials?
Replies: 128
Views: 13781

Re: What is the endgame for Millennials?

chevca wrote: Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:48 am
Regressor wrote: Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:45 am
chevca wrote: Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:42 am Did you bother to read the thread at all??
Most of it, why???
Because many of us have said the Millennials aren't that different from other generations, and most 20 somethings don't and never have saved for retirement and spent foolishly. We've already cleared up your points of argument. :wink:
I've read the first page and a half and noticed many malicious comments and didn't notice them being addressed directly. I mean, this whole "these damn kids deserve it, they choose to be homeless instead of buying a nice house" argument is really irritating, it ignores how much luck has to do with someone's wealth and shows an incredible lack of empathy.
But I'm sorry if I'm being redundant...
by Regressor
Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the endgame for Millennials?
Replies: 128
Views: 13781

Re: What is the endgame for Millennials?

chevca wrote: Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:42 am Did you bother to read the thread at all??
Most of it, why???
Did you? Did you notice the malicious comments on the first page?
by Regressor
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wash Sale question
Replies: 24
Views: 2063

Re: Wash Sale question

Hi, I have a related question and am a bit confused and don't want to open another thread so can someone please help? I bought vbr for $120 6 months ago. Then I bought more for $130 one week ago. Vbr is now $125. 1. If I sell the shares that I bought in January for a loss ($5 loss per share), can I deduct the loss? 2. If in a few days vbr goes to 115, will I be able to sell for a loss and deduct it? Numbers provided are just approximate, not exact. Also, I'm going to buy some other small cap fund as a replacement. 1. Of course. There's no wash sale as long as you use specific ID you to select the recent shares with losses and leave the ones without. Now, if it were the other way so the shares from last year had a loss the recent ones didn'...
by Regressor
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wash Sale question
Replies: 24
Views: 2063

Re: Wash Sale question

Hi, I have a related question and am a bit confused and don't want to open another thread so can someone please help?

I bought vbr for $120 6 months ago. Then I bought more for $130 one week ago. Vbr is now $125.

1. If I sell the shares that I bought in January for a loss ($5 loss per share), can I deduct the loss?
2. If in a few days vbr goes to 115, will I be able to sell for a loss and deduct it?

Numbers provided are just approximate, not exact. Also, I'm going to buy some other small cap fund as a replacement.

Thank you!
by Regressor
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 20402

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

Sp500 dropped 4.5% moments ago, if that's not blood in the water, I don't know what is - only several times in history has the market dropped more in a day. I'm not saying that it's actionable, only that there's blood in the water. Edit: Dow dropped 600 points in 5 minutes and recovered 500 in the next 3 minutes. wTF? Flash Crash? Any explanation made public? Here's a summary of the trading day, it went from 24800 to 24000 and back in a few minutes, the http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/05/news/companies/dow-800-points-10-minutes/index.html "At one point before 3:12 p.m., the Dow was down 1,597 points. It was the most points the Dow had ever fallen in a single trading day. By the time the market closed at 4 p.m., the Dow had recovered slig...
by Regressor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 20402

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

Sp500 dropped 4.5% moments ago, if that's not blood in the water, I don't know what is - only several times in history has the market dropped more in a day. I'm not saying that it's actionable, only that there's blood in the water.

Edit: Dow dropped 600 points in 5 minutes and recovered 500 in the next 3 minutes.
by Regressor
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 4083

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

I haven't really invested in bonds until last year. So pardon my simple questions a) BND (vanguard bond etf) is down only 2% YTD and <1% over 1 year. And that doesn't include dividends so with dividends its even better performance.Is that considered bad in the bond worls to be called as begining of bond bear market. b) I thought bonds and stocks are inverse correlated. I understand that doesn't always hold true (during crisis) but I don't see that happening. When inflation is coming up, rates will go up so enterprise values goes down (stocks go down) and bonds will go down (...) I am not looking for market timing, just trying to understand if there is really any asset (other than cash and shorting) that provides protection when interest ra...
by Regressor
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 114
Views: 23096

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

What is not conjecture is that the Federal Reserve Bank has to return its profits to the US Treasury. So to the extent that the Fed buys US Treasury Debt, the US Government is essentially making an interest free loan to itself. I have been very dissatisfied with the standard explanations for a couple of reasons. First, it has never been shown that there is a relationship between deficits and the level of interest rates. As I pointed out, both the Reagan and Obama Administrations ran relatively large deficits and yet interest rates fell. The "crowding out" effect where supposedly government crowds private borrowers out of the credit markets just never seems to happen. Somehow deficits, even large deficits seem to be financed rathe...
by Regressor
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?
Replies: 74
Views: 10750

Re: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?

I cashed in big time and used it to move up to a waaaay better house. Houses as good for us as this one that we can also afford might come on the market once a year if that. The market could double next year but I wont lose sleep over it. The decision to cash in wasnt because the market went up but it was enabled by it. I get to learn about some new rich people taxes this year too... Its' interesting that I've always felt that the market value increases is funny money, not really real. Where did the trillions in new value really come from? It came from people's willingness to buy future growth and profits in very real, very tangible businesses. People's willingness to buy anything is what gives it monetary value. Didn't it also (mainly?) c...
by Regressor
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 114
Views: 23096

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

Anyone who thinks that inflation will be lower than expected is getting a great deal with that 2.85% bond. What's a great deal for those who think inflation will be higher than expected? I've looked at iBonds and TIPS, but don't understand it well, and while it's safe and protects against inflation, are there other alternatives, especially ones that would perform better? https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-advisors-use-i-bonds-to-hedge-inflation-and-rising-rates-in-client-portfolios/ Getting a 30 year old mortgage for example. In taxable iBonds are Superior to TIPS because of tax deferral. Tips are for tax advantaged accounts. Short term bonds too - you could go to longer term when it's more obvious that inflation is out of control and you'...
by Regressor
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with allocation for mother in law
Replies: 11
Views: 763

Re: Help with allocation for mother in law

That's good to know. That part did come across badly the way it was first posted. Yeah, I could see that now that I've read it again :) Okay, if she asked for advice, we can go with that. I would say she doesn't have the ability to take lots of risk. Upping her savings rate is likely her best move at this point. I would get her out of the single stocks (gains and losses don't matter in tax advantaged) and get her in a simple three fund set up. How old is she? She's 58. I would think that if she makes 140 k per year, losing even half of her portfolio is only 60 k which is not a large part of her total net worth and she might not even notice such a drop since she doesn't care about the changes in the stock market. But you're right, I'll just...
by Regressor
Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with allocation for mother in law
Replies: 11
Views: 763

Re: Help with allocation for mother in law

Hi Bogleheads, I just found out that my mother in law has a 403b at American century and an IRA at td Ameritrade. Half of the money was in cash for about 15 years, other half is split between a few single stocks with large gains and loses and expensive funds with ER>1% and that she probably payed more than ten thousand dollars in fees. I pressured her to switch to vanguard. She's a PA but didn't save enough for retirement - she has about $120.000 across those accounts. She also has a bit over a million dollars worth of properties that she's emotionally attached to but that don't provide sufficient income. I think that she currently has a large ability and need to take risk and that the old rule "age in bonds" does not apply to he...
by Regressor
Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with allocation for mother in law
Replies: 11
Views: 763

Re: Help with allocation for mother in law

Did she ask for your advice? Why are you pressuring her, planning for her, or wanting to do what you think is best? Going from mostly cash to 70% in small caps is probably not a good idea. It's her risk tolerance that matters, not yours. Yes, she asked me for advice. She was in cash not because she was risk averse but because she didn't know what to invest in and didn't look at her IRA almost ever (even during the recession, it didn't bother her at all) and when she started cash was paying a few % interest. She is very focused on her job, health of the people that are seeing her and her in health and doesn't care much about personal finance because she always had enough and counted on that continuing to be the case. Yes, it was financially...
by Regressor
Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with allocation for mother in law
Replies: 11
Views: 763

Re: Help with allocation for mother in law

Shackleton wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:10 am I would advise giving her a copy of the Bogleheads Guide To Investing and letting her handle her finances.
She payed for my wife's college education. If she ends up broke, my family and families of my wife's sibling will have to take care of her. My wife doesn't think it's a problem but I'm a bit more risk averse.
by Regressor
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with allocation for mother in law
Replies: 11
Views: 763

Help with allocation for mother in law

Hi Bogleheads, I just found out that my mother in law has a 403b at American century and an IRA at td Ameritrade. Half of the money was in cash for about 15 years, other half is split between a few single stocks with large gains and loses and expensive funds with ER>1% and that she probably payed more than ten thousand dollars in fees. I explained to her that had she been invested with vanguard, she would have saved a lot of money due to lower fees and she asked me if I could help her switch to vanguard. She's a PA but didn't save enough for retirement - she has about $120.000 across those accounts. She also has a bit over a million dollars worth of properties that she's emotionally attached to but that don't provide sufficient income. I th...
by Regressor
Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 8831

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

Stormbringer wrote: Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:15 pm I really don't trust the Shiller PE right now for two reasons:
  1. The 10-year data set includes 2008-09, which was a fairly extreme financial event.
  2. Interest rates remain very low, which puts upward pressure on PE.
Even if you do have faith in the metric, Dr. Shiller himself has said it is not useful for timing the market.
Regarding a. even if you exclude the crisis years, valuations are still high And CAPE is very close to 30:
https://www.ft.com/content/793fbb08-f5e ... 4187b3017e
by Regressor
Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard CEO - "4-4.5% Market Returns Over The Next Decade"
Replies: 35
Views: 6936

Re: Vanguard CEO - "4-4.5% Market Returns Over The Next Decade"

Just felt like tossing this one out there for general consumption and conversation... Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley has just stated he believes the market will return a paltry 4 - 4.5% return over the next decade on a 60 stock /40 bond portfolio. Any thoughts on this? I don't want too dispute the idea that returns will be low over the next decade but these 4 - 4.5% ranges always seem so ridiculous to me considering the interrent uncertainties that their models must have. It is as if weather forecaster said "tomorrow between 44th and 45th St on 7th Ave in NYC at 1:32 pm it will be between 36.57782 and 36.57793 degrees Fahrenheit" even though his model told him that sometime tomorrow afternoon it will probably be between 34 and 38 degre...
by Regressor
Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone not rebalance?
Replies: 66
Views: 8710

Re: Does anyone not rebalance?

I wouldn't rebalance only if all these conditions are met: I don't have 401k and I have only short term gains(no loses) and all of my long term gains are high. In that case I'd try to rebalance with new money. I can imagine that some people are in that situation right now considering the market returns recently.