Search found 217 matches

by Juice3
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EE Bonds and Sequence of Returns Risk
Replies: 56
Views: 4130

Re: EE Bonds and Sequence of Returns Risk

SantaClaraSurfer wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:25 pm
I would put it this way. You know EXACTLY what the EE Bonds will be worth in twenty years. (Double.)
This is known at the time of purchase. Keep in mind there is a history of the maturity period being extended. I would expect this to happen if the current low interest rates continue.
by Juice3
Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So how does CA track residency for tax purposes?
Replies: 37
Views: 2699

Re: So how does CA track residency for tax purposes?

My FIL has a place in VA and in FL and he keeps a journal for travel to FL, keeps airline tickets, uses a credit card for dinners, and the like, and makes sure that he spends 180+ days in FL.) I believe if your FIL maintains a home in VA, he would be considered a resident no matter how much time he...
by Juice3
Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So how does CA track residency for tax purposes?
Replies: 37
Views: 2699

Re: So how does CA track residency for tax purposes?

I believe if your FIL maintains a home in VA, he would be considered a resident no matter how much time he spends elsewhere. I assume this arrangement described is an attempt to avoid VA income tax? Can you reference what conditions are required to allow? Owning a home in VA does NOT mean you live ...
by Juice3
Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So how does CA track residency for tax purposes?
Replies: 37
Views: 2699

Re: So how does CA track residency for tax purposes?

My FIL has a place in VA and in FL and he keeps a journal for travel to FL, keeps airline tickets, uses a credit card for dinners, and the like, and makes sure that he spends 180+ days in FL.) I believe if your FIL maintains a home in VA, he would be considered a resident no matter how much time he...
by Juice3
Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Age vs retirement year
Replies: 27
Views: 4669

Re: Age vs retirement year

Just curious how most of you bogleheads handle your asset allocation relative to your age. My AA is not related to my "age" but rather to my retirement date. I believe in FI tilt around (both before and after) retirement date - commonly known as tenting. I believe that having flexibility in retirem...
by Juice3
Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Just Ordered Peloton Bike
Replies: 165
Views: 16662

Re: Just Ordered Peloton Bike

Anyone ordering should make sure to get a referral code from someone for $100 worth of accessories (e.g. shoes) Probably better off to use standard spin bike shoes and pedals (Shimano SPD) than buy Peleton stuff. Both shoes and pedals can be purchased from Amazon for under 100 total. And you can wa...
by Juice3
Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Just Ordered Peloton Bike
Replies: 165
Views: 16662

Re: Just Ordered Peloton Bike

Peleton owner here for 2 months. Happy with the bike. Bike and Subscription are very expensive.Wish they offered computer controlled variable resistance "real life" simulated rides (instructor controlled is supposedly in the new version). Very unhappy with how the new version was launched and how Pe...
by Juice3
Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No 401k offered - Best retirement savings vehicle?
Replies: 15
Views: 1217

Re: No 401k offered - Best retirement savings vehicle?

People with access to 401Ks and those with access to even more exotic plans, have a pretty significant advantage on retirement savings over those who do not have this type of access, especially when talking about savers.
by Juice3
Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for those that use WebEx a lot for work.
Replies: 12
Views: 835

Re: Question for those that use WebEx a lot for work.

Correct. The pricing is for the availability of the feature , and is a per-host, per-month charge. David, the term I posted are those publicly available. I assume as a big WebEx user you negotiate your terms with CSCO and attempt to keep yourself out of position lacking any leverage. If you have ne...
by Juice3
Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for those that use WebEx a lot for work.
Replies: 12
Views: 835

Re: Question for those that use WebEx a lot for work.

Do not use the WebEx "call me" feature. Assuming you work for a MegaCorp with 10 or 100s of thousands of employees. This feature is likely driving 100s of thousands of dollars to revenue to WebEx. Please provide a reference for this, as I've never seen any instances in which the initiator of a call...
by Juice3
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for those that use WebEx a lot for work.
Replies: 12
Views: 835

Re: Question for those that use WebEx a lot for work.

Do not use the WebEx "call me" feature. Assuming you work for a MegaCorp with 10 or 100s of thousands of employees. This feature is likely driving 100s of thousands of dollars to revenue to WebEx. Use the "computer audio" feature of teleconferencing, unless you working with a metered or inadequate I...
by Juice3
Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long could you live off your portfolio if the worst happened?
Replies: 110
Views: 10616

Re: How long could you live off your portfolio if the worst happened?

Today: N = S*N + B*N Y = N / E Scenario: Bad equity markets loss 50% Ignore inflation Ignore growth Scenario: N' = .5*S*N + B*N Y' = N' / E' As others have pointed out. How E changes is more interesting part of this question. This why we often talk about necessary and discretionary E. For example a ...
by Juice3
Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash allocation after retirement...
Replies: 29
Views: 3091

Re: Cash allocation after retirement...

Your plan is reasonable. Put simply instead of in the polite speak often used here At retirement target: Spend 150 Max Min Egg 5,000 3,750 Stock 0.6 3,000 2,250 Bond 0.3 1,500 1,125 Cash 0.1 500 375 (Why does this web site strip out formatting spacing???) As others have pointed out. You may want to ...
by Juice3
Fri Aug 21, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When do you take profits and what do you do with them?
Replies: 35
Views: 2517

Re: When do you take profits and what do you do with them?

Search for rebalancing.

We do not really talk about "profits" here but rather "returns".

We also mostly talk about two hypothetical phases, accumulation and retirement (drawing down). There is often a focus on the transition from one to the other.
by Juice3
Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Scenario: Roth IRA Taxes
Replies: 28
Views: 1712

Re: Scenario: Roth IRA Taxes

The 22% bracket is still very low! 22% S:$40,126 – $85,525 MFJ:$80,251 – $171,050 Household income (2018 data) Fourth quintile upper bound 112,262 Top quintile mean 202,366 Low indeed Bear in mind that the bracket ranges on the top line above refer to taxable income, which is defined much more narr...
by Juice3
Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Scenario: Roth IRA Taxes
Replies: 28
Views: 1712

Re: Scenario: Roth IRA Taxes

BestCoast123 wrote: Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:14 pm The 22% bracket is still very low!
22% S:$40,126 – $85,525 MFJ:$80,251 – $171,050

Household income (2018 data)
Fourth quintile upper bound 112,262
Top quintile mean 202,366

Low indeed
by Juice3
Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College
Replies: 25
Views: 2340

Re: College

Thank You to WIllardX and Megmill for sharing your experiences and plans. I am similiar. Kid had a local, prestigious, local private college offer making cost comparable to flagship state. We choose flagship state in the spring. Now that it is time to pay the bill and seeing what flagship state is s...
by Juice3
Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College
Replies: 25
Views: 2340

Re: College

Now that fall is almost here and colleges have released some (much?) information on what they plan for the fall semester. How are you all navigating college financial decisions for traditional college students? What financial decisions? +1 The decisions were made in the Spring. Now it's time to wri...
by Juice3
Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College
Replies: 25
Views: 2340

Re: College

Now that fall is almost here and colleges have released some (much?) information on what they plan for the fall semester. How are you all navigating college financial decisions for traditional college students? What financial decisions? Just to start a list 1. Go / dont go - gap year 2. Live on cam...
by Juice3
Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College
Replies: 25
Views: 2340

College

Now that fall is almost here and colleges have released some (much?) information on what they plan for the fall semester.

How are you all navigating college financial decisions for traditional college students?
by Juice3
Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After-tax AA and shifting money between traditional and Roth
Replies: 7
Views: 526

Re: After-tax AA and shifting money between traditional and Roth

markcoop wrote: Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:32 am If I do my AA on an after-tax basis, then I think moving money around becomes a neutral event.
You do not want it to be neutral.
You want to use tax efficient placements of investments.
You want to to have defined out of balance rules for you AA and re-balance times.
by Juice3
Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Speed bump in front of your house — affect on home value
Replies: 54
Views: 4022

Re: Speed bump in front of your house — affect on home value

Rather than speed bumps, my city uses completely unmarked, photo radar vans that roam around speeding hotspots, post a temporary "photo radar ahead" notices on the speed limit sign, park the van a block or two down the road, then proceed to rake in the cash which they don't have to share with third...
by Juice3
Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Speed bump in front of your house — affect on home value
Replies: 54
Views: 4022

Re: Speed bump in front of your house — affect on home value

Rather than speed bumps, my city uses completely unmarked, photo radar vans that roam around speeding hotspots, post a temporary "photo radar ahead" notices on the speed limit sign, park the van a block or two down the road, then proceed to rake in the cash which they don't have to share with third...
by Juice3
Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In retirement, why not 100% Total Stock Market + Cash?
Replies: 53
Views: 5676

Re: In retirement, why not 100% Total Stock Market + Cash?

OK, I did more research and see that with the longest recovery time was 8 years. I guess I should stick with our previous plan. Are you sure about that? Look at SP500, inflation adjusted during 1960-1980. That is 20 years of underperformance. While the average S&P Return from 1960 to 1980 (59.91 to...
by Juice3
Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

2. Do you include consumer debt in your snapshot of the average investor? I ask to make sure, since Americans, including many with high incomes, carry substantial consumer debt and, worse, 1 in 4 young Americans dip into their 401(k)s to pay off debt . I generally do not waste much thought on consu...
by Juice3
Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

Having, like many people, experienced financial hardship, I have to admit my AA is shaped directly by that experience. For the record, I'm middle-aged and my wife and I are 78-22, so it's not like we're putting money in a mattress!! I always find it interesting how 100% is defined. OFC, most reader...
by Juice3
Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

The 100% equities approach isn't consistent with Boglehead philosophy, which is the cornerstone of this forum. I Here is the "bogleheads philosophy" 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index fun...
by Juice3
Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

The 100% equities approach isn't consistent with Boglehead philosophy, which is the cornerstone of this forum. I Here is the "bogleheads philosophy" 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index fun...
by Juice3
Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

That is assuming that you invested all your money in one lump sum at the beginning of the 30 years. <<When your model has errors of that magnitude, it can not be trusted.>> I agreed! Please fix your model. KlangFool And you are assuming that retirement is something you invest equal amounts in month...
by Juice3
Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

a 50% drop right before your retirement date for 100/0 may wipe you out. KlangFool And we have already proven the best defense against a large drop is to be in a position to continue working. The 50% drop I assume you mean 1931 or the worst year for equities in the great depression. It is a differe...
by Juice3
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

I am not taking the risk of 100/0. Some of you are. So, please make sure that it is worth your risk. KlangFool You should be a financial advisor. You are genius in managing other peoples money. To use your own tactics, No one is taking 100/0 risk. Everyone can get a job and get paid. Thus not all t...
by Juice3
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

Over 30 years, you only get 10+% more than 70/30 with 100/0. From 25 to 50, you only get 20 years of 100/0 based on your proposal. So, why bother? Show me the exact numbers. One of the posters did that. It is only 10+% more over 30 years. Do your own calculation if you are not convinced. KlangFool ...
by Juice3
Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

I told the NASA engineer that stocks would likely maximize returns over a long enough timeline, but there will be some drops. He responded that he was not okay with his account dropping even a penny below what he put in. There was a more involved discussion (yes, he understood the nuances). Would y...
by Juice3
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

I guess I'm in the minority, but I never recommend 100% stock --it creates an undiversified portfolio--nothing in the other two major asset classes. Does everyone believe we cannot see an 80% drop ever again? Correct, but many (most?) investors are not Bogleheads. We're looking at a blanket 100/0 r...
by Juice3
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1872211 Investor behavior is often suboptimal. The assumptions this paper makes are not true of discussion of AA within a Boglehead investment framework. Namely from the papers abstract: (1) underperform standard benchmarks (e.g., a low cost index...
by Juice3
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: Until What Age Would You Recommend 0% Bond Allocation?

The 1% return difference in return is a guess/estimate. It is not a guess or an estimate. It is an actual average based on back testing. When we apply that average to future periods, it becomes an estimate. And, the real result would be different. This is not the same as the 1% difference in expens...
by Juice3
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: Until What Age Would You Recommend 0% Bond Allocation?

KlangFool wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:44 am The 1% return difference in return is a guess/estimate.
It is not a guess or an estimate. It is an actual average based on back testing.

When we apply that average to future periods, it becomes an estimate.
by Juice3
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

jtdavid wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:35 am Because a majority of people simply can't stick to it when it really counts.
This is exactly where my brother, who is a broker, makes his living off his 1% cut.

Crazy we have people who make big money who's basic job is drink scotch with rich people and keep them from doing dumb things.
by Juice3
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: Until What Age Would You Recommend 0% Bond Allocation?

The average return for 100/0 is 10.1% The average return for 70/30 is 9.1% If we were talking about a 1% difference in expense ratios, everyone would be screaming to get out of the higher ER and into the lower. 1% matters. Juice3, I assume that you know the difference between A) 1% in expense that ...
by Juice3
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 18867

Re: Until What Age Would You Recommend 0% Bond Allocation?

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:57 pm The average return for 100/0 is 10.1%

The average return for 70/30 is 9.1%
If we were talking about a 1% difference in expense ratios, everyone would be screaming to get out of the higher ER and into the lower. 1% matters.
by Juice3
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Helping employer modify 401k plan // Mega Backdoor Roth
Replies: 11
Views: 540

Re: Helping employer modify 401k plan // Mega Backdoor Roth

The key consideration for a small plan such as the one you are suggesting, is that employee after-tax contributions are always subject to ACP anti-discrimination testing even in a safe harbor 401k plan. If the employees contain a mix of HCEs and NHCEs, the plan is highly likely to fail ACP testing ...
by Juice3
Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: COVID Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2462

Re: COVID Portfolio

omeletpants wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:51 pm My advisor says Vanguard doesnt have a COVID specific product.[...] Was Vanguard sleeping on the most compelling event on our lifetimes?
A better question is what is the COVID SWR? Those in the draw down phase might be ripe to live it up.
by Juice3
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with all this MONEY ?
Replies: 201
Views: 21084

Re: What to do with all this MONEY ?

How do you feel about leaving inheritances ? My mother has told me a few times that she plans to leave this Earth the way she entered, with nothing. I wish her the best of luck and will be honored if she misses her mark and I am able to pick up any of slack. I am 64 Net worth of $7.5M a physician b...
by Juice3
Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: percentage of portfolio in Roth?
Replies: 72
Views: 3611

Re: percentage of portfolio in Roth?

If we wanted to contribute $10,000 to Roth accounts, we would first have to pay $2,200 in taxes, so only $7,800 would make it into the Roth. By comparison, we can contribute $10,000 to tax-deferred accounts, and after we pay 12% taxes on the withdrawals, we'll have $8,800. Tax-deferred wins by a bi...
by Juice3
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: percentage of portfolio in Roth?
Replies: 72
Views: 3611

Re: percentage of portfolio in Roth?

If we wanted to contribute $10,000 to Roth accounts, we would first have to pay $2,200 in taxes, so only $7,800 would make it into the Roth. By comparison, we can contribute $10,000 to tax-deferred accounts, and after we pay 12% taxes on the withdrawals, we'll have $8,800. Tax-deferred wins by a bi...
by Juice3
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: percentage of portfolio in Roth?
Replies: 72
Views: 3611

Re: percentage of portfolio in Roth?

If we wanted to contribute $10,000 to Roth accounts, we would first have to pay $2,200 in taxes, so only $7,800 would make it into the Roth. By comparison, we can contribute $10,000 to tax-deferred accounts, and after we pay 12% taxes on the withdrawals, we'll have $8,800. Tax-deferred wins by a bi...
by Juice3
Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: percentage of portfolio in Roth?
Replies: 72
Views: 3611

Re: percentage of portfolio in Roth?

Other thoughts on this topic 1M in pre tax is not the same or similiar to 1M in Roth. Obviously the 1M pretax has a liability we know as income tax. Also 1M in after tax, is also not the same as 1M in Roth. The 1M aftertax generates about 2% dividends in 100% equity invested. These dividends affect ...
by Juice3
Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: percentage of portfolio in Roth?
Replies: 72
Views: 3611

Re: percentage of portfolio in Roth?

The answer is not a target percentage. The answer to an percentage targeted depends on what you want to optimize on and what future assumptions are made. One strategy, if you want to minimize current taxes, put as much as you can into tax deferred. If you want to level expected taxable income over y...
by Juice3
Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DR recommending i stay home from work for entire 3ed trimester of Pregnant Fiancé
Replies: 46
Views: 3973

Re: DR recommending i stay home from work for entire 3ed trimester of Pregnant Fiancé

Heck, around 1/5 of Americans are out of work "out of work" does not have the same meaning as "unemployed". Unfortunately I do not have data but a large percentage of that 20% are temporary (as in short term ... likely as short term as the employment policies allow ... 1 week) in nature. Temporary ...
by Juice3
Sat May 23, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycle Recommendation?
Replies: 49
Views: 4691

Re: Bicycle Recommendation?

caffeperfavore....you may have inspired me ... a DIY repair. My wife's bike is fine. Mine has a noticeable "knock" which I am guessing is a bearing failure in the crankset. I am a tinkerer. Many clicks and knocks are bikes make can fixed by cleaning, lubing, and tightening everything. I had a click...