Search found 54 matches

by totesmagotes
Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 13585
Views: 2262853

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Well this incident should put at least a little doubt into the argument that the market always has everything priced in. There were several people in this forum over the last few weeks that argued the known risks/impacts of this virus were not priced in, and it seems they were correct. The market i...
by totesmagotes
Wed Nov 27, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda Lane keep assist
Replies: 94
Views: 6045

Re: Honda Lane keep assist

Didn't want all the safety electronics but now wouldn't buy a car without them. The only thing I worry about is when I run out of warranty and all this stuff starts to break. Will probably cost a fortune to fix. Anybody know? That's a legit concern and one that I share. My wife and I ended up getti...
by totesmagotes
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda Lane keep assist
Replies: 94
Views: 6045

Re: Honda Lane keep assist

lane keep assist is for people who shouldn't be driving. I turn mine off. There are too many times it is less safe than I would like: 1. easing over to pass a cyclist 2. avoiding road debris 3. construction zones where the lines do not mark the lanes 4. easing over to look around a vehicle I could ...
by totesmagotes
Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FEHB clarifications and open enrollment
Replies: 16
Views: 1576

Re: FEHB clarifications and open enrollment

Our family was on my husband’s company’s (private sector) plan until I was about 6 years out from retirement at my federal job. Then we switched over to FEHB in order to ensure we could continue it in retirement. So yes, your plan would work fine. Just remember that FEHB coverage starts at the begi...
by totesmagotes
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accurate long-term disability statistics
Replies: 14
Views: 1138

Re: Accurate long-term disability statistics

Here is my perspective. Statistics don't matter and they won't pay the bills if you are disabled. It is an unlikely event but it will either happen to you or it won't. Buy the coverage you need to protect you and yours and be glad if you never need it. Cheers I will indeed be happy not to need it, ...
by totesmagotes
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accurate long-term disability statistics
Replies: 14
Views: 1138

Accurate long-term disability statistics

I'm in my mid-upper 30s, and compensation from my job constitutes about 75% of the total compensation our family receives (my wife works part-time but doesn't receive benefits from her employer). I have three children and am a federal employee. I started to research long-term disability income insur...
by totesmagotes
Thu May 16, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Impossible Burger At Home
Replies: 35
Views: 3075

Re: Impossible Burger At Home

People in this post are missing the point of the Impossible Burger. It is vegan, yes. But the taste is supposed to be indiscernible from a beef burger. Also, beef production in this country is one of the largest sources of CO2. The point isn’t that it’s “way healthier”. The point is that if beef ea...
by totesmagotes
Thu May 09, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacement Window shopping advice
Replies: 20
Views: 1753

Re: Replacement Window shopping advice

I live in the same area as you (Northern Va). The prices seem fair to me. I just had a Renewal by Andersen consultant in my house yesterday. I have 37 windows in a three story townhouse. Total price after discounts came in at $76,000!!! >$2k per window on average. I've read great reviews about Wind...
by totesmagotes
Fri May 03, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [On-going Scams - Post them here]
Replies: 229
Views: 11688

Re: Received email and PDF allegedly from Apple

I received an email allegedly from Apple yesterday with a PDF claiming to be a receipt. We have Apple products but neither wife nor I have purchased anything from Apple recently so I was immediately suspicious. I never opened PDF because I assume it has malware or virus. I checked my bank accounts ...
by totesmagotes
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation - 34 year old worth $1.2M
Replies: 21
Views: 3406

Re: Asset Allocation - 34 year old worth $1.2M

I can’t figure out why so many Bogleheads support this detrimental strategy of dollar cost averaging. Because putting a lot of money into the market all at once and then watching it drop can be sufficiently emotionally painful for people that it can lead to permanent behavioral problems with invest...
by totesmagotes
Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifestrategy vs 100% Stock in HSA
Replies: 18
Views: 1589

Re: Lifestrategy vs 100% Stock in HSA

I only slightly agree with the other comments. Unless you'll never touch these funds for health expenses, you still may need to access part of the HSA for medical expenses as early as tomorrow. In my opinion, you should keep approximately 1 year's worth of out-of-pocket, max health care expenses in...
by totesmagotes
Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Redoing lawn with bermuda
Replies: 25
Views: 2393

Re: Redoing lawn with bermuda

My lawn is in front lawn is about 400 square yards and is in horrible shape so we're planning to redo it. First we want to kill off the fescue and weeds without using chemicals. Should I mow it at the lowest setting and then cover it with a tarp? Once things die off, is the next step to till it? Se...
by totesmagotes
Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Series I Savings Bonds Buying Opportunity
Replies: 52
Views: 10639

Re: Series I Savings Bonds Buying Opportunity

Just for my curiosity: Why to buy iBonds at 2.83% when you can get 5, 6, or 7 year CD's at higher than 3.10%? Who generally buys iBonds? For what purpose and for how long? 2. I use iBond as the 2nd tier of core emergency fund after high-yield online savings. I started to buy I-Bonds (less than the ...
by totesmagotes
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda Odyssey EX vs EX-L?
Replies: 11
Views: 1128

Re: Honda Odyssey EX vs EX-L?

According to the Honda website (https://automobiles.honda.com/odyssey#), aside from the cloth vs leather seating options, the EXL adds the following: 1. Moofroof 2. Power (push button) tailgate with adjustable height 3. Acoustic windshield glass (supposed to be quieter than standard glass) 4. Memory...
by totesmagotes
Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Choosing between eliminating PMI or investing
Replies: 18
Views: 1720

Re: Choosing between eliminating PMI or investing

I don't think this is nearly the no-brainer that many commenters seem to think. After thinking more about this, I realized I can try to figure this out via an amortization schedule. ... Too Long; Didn't Read This is the sort of post I was hoping someone else would make. :p Maybe no one made it beca...
by totesmagotes
Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in gold
Replies: 33
Views: 2744

Re: Investing in gold

There are so many firms that is is quite easy to find at least one who supports buying whatever you like. Indeed there pretty much have to be firms or investors who supporting buying X, for if there were only sellers, then the price would go to $0. For every seller, there is a buyer. Sometimes buye...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 29
Views: 2570

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

These were their forecasts 6/30/11-6/30/18 The correlation coefficient between the forecasts and the observations 0.05. That is to say, virtually zero. The forecast had virtually no predictive power. Why do people pay any attention to GMO's forecasts? It's amazing to think of what changes in 7-10 y...
by totesmagotes
Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Child # 3 - seeking advice from older members
Replies: 89
Views: 8089

Re: Child # 3 - seeking advice from older members

My wife and I have two kids currently (2 and 6), and we went back and forth a lot about whether to try for a 3rd child. We've both always said we wanted 3 kiddos (we both grew up with 2 or more siblings), but the financial situation has been hard to get around (another 4+ years of day care, etc.). S...
by totesmagotes
Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Artemis Attack on the Bogleheads
Replies: 80
Views: 9931

Re: Artemis Attack on the Bogleheads

To all the doubters out there, if this didn't make you concerned at least a little then, in my opinion, you do not understand the market structure. It sounds like you are new to all this. There is always a "smart" talking head making dire predictions that give people the willies. They always have a...
by totesmagotes
Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit utilization impact on canceling credit cards
Replies: 22
Views: 994

Re: Credit utilization impact on canceling credit cards

Regardless this would all be a temporary blip on the screen, so i would move forward with getting rid of the card with an annual fee. I am curious how you are going to get out of paying the Annual Fee, are you going to fight it? I don't believe they will let you cancel the card with a balance (of t...
by totesmagotes
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New State Farm Coverages
Replies: 46
Views: 17506

Re: New State Farm Coverages

I'm debating about moving from ASI to State Farm partly for this reason as well. We have two older A/C units at my house, and it could come in handy for only $50 (quote I was provided). My State Farm agent said the program is run through Hartford Steam Boiler, which is part of Munich Re. It sounds l...
by totesmagotes
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: Don't buy a big house
Replies: 248
Views: 28334

Re: PSA: Don't buy a big house

Lots of replies touting the life expectancy of LED bulbs, are you guys working for these companies that manufacture them? My new home was finished a year and a half ago. I've already had to replace some burned out recessed LED can lights. I got a laugh when the new ones showed up and packaging clai...
by totesmagotes
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Dealer told us car was Certified, but it isnt
Replies: 80
Views: 5816

Re: Car Dealer told us car was Certified, but it isnt

My wife and I purchased a Nissan certified pre-owned (CPO) 7-8 years ago. Or at least that's what the dealer said. There were two main benefits of doing a CPO vehicle purchase as we saw it -- (1) access to 0.0% financing from Nissan Financial and (2) access to a discounted extended warranty. We took...
by totesmagotes
Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 176
Views: 26727

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Another big hitter with solid track record expressing concern: The investor said he is now about 25 percent exposed to the stock market. Tepper called the market "fairly valued" if the U.S. doesn't impose more tariffs on Chinese goods. "I've taken down my exposure [to equities]," he said. "I'm just...
by totesmagotes
Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student loan payoff help
Replies: 19
Views: 2132

Re: Student loan payoff help

What repayment plan are you currently on? What do you mean when you say she will be eligible for PSLF payoff at the end of this school year (or are you talking about a different type of loan forgiveness plan other than PSLF)? PSLF requirements are met after 120 monthly payments when on an eligible r...
by totesmagotes
Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nespresso?
Replies: 103
Views: 9595

Re: Nespresso?

i used one for a while. it was great. but the machine was a gift. while the pods are not cheap/environment etc, its still cheaper than SBs. I was over in the Netherlands for work several months ago and was able to pick up a bunch of pods at a Nespresso store at the AMS airport for about half the pr...
by totesmagotes
Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Diego - where to stay, what to do with 6 year old
Replies: 30
Views: 2446

Re: San Diego - where to stay, what to do with 6 year old

We plan to visit San Diego soon with our 6 year old. How many days do we need for LegoLand, SeaWorld, Zoo and Safari? Besides that, are there other places I should visit when we are in San Diego? We are flexible on number of days, but prefer 5 days or less. What areas should we try to find hotels/a...
by totesmagotes
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 11335

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

Please tell me these are real returns. I suspect not. I'm pretty sure those are real return estimates. Those are predicted nominal returns. https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FA863418.pdf They're predicting inflation will stay around 2%, so real US market returns of 1-3% over the next decade. 10...
by totesmagotes
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Better Behavioural Finance Books?
Replies: 17
Views: 1676

Re: Better Behavioural Finance Books?

I really liked "Misbehaving" by Thaler. I found it very accessible and interesting. Granted, I listened to the audiobook version on my long daily commute, but I really liked it. I didn't mind "Nudge", though I liked "Misbehaving" considerably more. If you want to get more academic and get into the n...
by totesmagotes
Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Theater PC Uses?
Replies: 15
Views: 1496

Re: Home Theater PC Uses?

IMO most of that can be done just as easily or more so with your day-to-day computer and a streaming stick such as Chromecast/Roku. With a HTPC you'll have to use some weird keyboard/mouse thing plus the extra space and expense without much additional functionality. I would only do it if I wanted a...
by totesmagotes
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years
Replies: 20
Views: 3263

Re: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years

Schwab's market forecast - https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/why-market-returns-may-be-lower-in-the-future What do you think about this Schwab article ? Typically companies like Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity are not right on market commentary, outlook. Vanguard on 2017 outlook as...
by totesmagotes
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Left Advisory Portfolio to do it myself and fear I made mess of things
Replies: 35
Views: 3379

Re: Left Advisory Portfolio to do it myself and fear I made mess of things

I fear everything in one fund like the Fidelity Freedom® Index 2025 Fund or the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund even though those funds allocate between equities and bonds. I don't know why I don't lean more towards those. When I did my research, I studied them but didn't give them much considera...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tires: Where to Get? Warranty? And Questions?
Replies: 74
Views: 9149

Re: Tires: Where to Get? Warranty? And Questions?

I always decline Discount Tire's certificates (when I do, the salesman usually offers to discount the certificate price by 50%. I still decline them, as they're a poor deal for most people). I guess it depends on the specific model, the salesman, and the markup, but I once bought tires there with c...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds to 529 -- state tax deduction allowed?
Replies: 1
Views: 237

I bonds to 529 -- state tax deduction allowed?

I have several Series I bonds that I may or may not 'redeem' to move the proceeds over to a 529. Because of the Education Savings Bond Program, I will not need to pay income tax on interest payments from the I bonds since the redemption will be considered a qualified education expense (if funds are ...
by totesmagotes
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 13585
Views: 2262853

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Dead cat bounce! Hang on folks! Looks like the cat bounced about 3:15 ET today. But who knows, it may have 8 additional lives. Please keep your arms and legs inside the ride vehicle at all times! Chartists have wonder descriptions, but their predictive value is only 100% in hindsight. We are seeing...
by totesmagotes
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to short TSLA?
Replies: 50
Views: 3890

Re: How to short TSLA?

Yes i Do not have a margin account. Just a simple vanguard brokerage. I do have a forex account that gives me access to margin, but for forex only. (Forex is where i got what knowledge i do have of shorting) Im going to take the next couple of days to study on this. And i appreciate all of your inp...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income
Replies: 190
Views: 20503

Re: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income

What if the mom doesn't want to work? That's a family decision not a 'mom' decision. It's going to be a hard one when you are $700/month in the hole and no longer saving anything at all. The OP has $67,000 in a taxable account. If the mom takes a year off to spend with the kid, they might use like ...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?
Replies: 18
Views: 3642

Re: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?

Barry Ritholtz has asked this same question in a myriad of interviews with renowned economists and business leaders in his "Masters in Business" show and podcast on Bloomberg. Almost universally, the answer seems to be "No". As long as there are O(10%) people actively investing, it seems that ineffi...
by totesmagotes
Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Telematics and Auto Insurance
Replies: 13
Views: 1175

Re: Telematics and Auto Insurance

I'm presupposing that insurers are offering this because it helps them save money in the long run. But how does the use of telematics save them money? I haven't figured that out yet. AFAIK, they don't raise your rates because of the data they collect, at least not directly. Of course, they could do ...
by totesmagotes
Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does a State job make it easier to get a FED job?
Replies: 10
Views: 1360

Re: Does a State job make it easier to get a FED job?

I went from a state position to a federal position. My impression as I was researching the hiring process was that it varies a lot depending upon the agency and the hiring manager. If you're previous state position is directly related to the federal position for which you're applying, then it makes ...
by totesmagotes
Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On Podcasts, timing the market vs Boglehead way - Fear of Missing out
Replies: 16
Views: 1787

Re: On Podcasts, timing the market vs Boglehead way - Fear of Missing out

While I am certainly glad to be a Boglehead, I found myself wanting to convince him on why I was right. He of course was trying to do the same. How do you tackle such situations? Both sides could provide evidence to boost their claims and have all kinds of data to back their arguments. The BH "way"...
by totesmagotes
Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dependent Childcare FSA
Replies: 3
Views: 553

Re: Dependent Childcare FSA

See https://www.fsafeds.com/explore/dcfsa/expenses for a sample of some relevant eligible expenses. In your case, you can see that "extended care" (e.g., before- and after-school care) is eligible. As long as you have eligible expenses, have earned income, and have an employer who offers the program...
by totesmagotes
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP 401k Contribution Question
Replies: 17
Views: 1678

Re: TSP 401k Contribution Question

I received an email notifying me that there are 27 EFT pay dates in 2018 and that I/we may need to adjust contributions to account for the additional pay period in 2018. I *think* this is because the EFT date for 2017 PP26 is 1/1/18 and the EFT date for 2018 PP26 is 12/31/18. The implication of the ...
by totesmagotes
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just not getting it [Stock Picking versus TSM]
Replies: 99
Views: 17194

Re: Just not getting it

I think a recently published article is relevant to the oft-discussed index vs. stock picking debate: Abstract Four out of every seven common stocks that have appeared in the CRSP database since 1926 have lifetime buy-and-hold returns less than one-month Treasuries. When stated in terms of lifetime ...
by totesmagotes
Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA Info
Replies: 8
Views: 985

Re: HSA Info

Can you get reimbursed receipts from the previous years or the current year only? I realize the HSA grows tax free and is tax free when you put into it. How does it become an IRA when you "come of age"? All my reading is it needs to be used for medical purposes etc or else a 20% penalty will be iss...
by totesmagotes
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Price of haircut?
Replies: 194
Views: 16560

Re: Price of haircut?

Wife does the cutting. Free! Same. She's cut my hair probably an average of 8 times per year for the past 9 years. On the rare occasion schedules don't work and I need to get it cut professionally, I go to a local cheap place for ~$18 (includes tip). So, 8*9*$18 = $1080 worth of cuts. We're on the ...
by totesmagotes
Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 156
Views: 22247

Re: Vanguard launching factor-based ETFs/funds

Interesting - Just in case anyone missed today's announcement from Vanguard re: their upcoming launch of factor-based ETFs/funds: https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/researchcommentary/article/IWE_News112817&sub=871538438&st=R If a bunch of money pours into the "Vanguard U.S. Value...
by totesmagotes
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation [in market crash]
Replies: 38
Views: 3573

Re: Asset Allocation [in market crash]

Well, in that instance, I might have went 100% stocks from 15% bonds in 2008, lost a little more but would have stayed 100% stocks until I felt the market recovered be it 1 year or a decade from then. There’s a difference between a “short dip” and a once/twice in a lifetime recession where the mark...
by totesmagotes
Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 FEHB HDHP Recommendations
Replies: 54
Views: 11605

Re: 2018 FEHB HDHP Recommendations

I am giving a presentation to the DC Bogleheads on a related topic, so I redid my comparisons for FEHB HDHPs versus conventional, and the HDHP is almost a guaranteed winner (as long as you won't be deterred from seeking necessary care due to the potential bills). I use GEHA in this comparison, as i...
by totesmagotes
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 FEHB HDHP Recommendations
Replies: 54
Views: 11605

Re: 2018 FEHB HDHP Recommendations

I'm a new fed and am currently enrolled in the GEHA HDHP, and I'm planning on keeping that option for 2018. My wife and I aren't sure if we're going to try for another kiddo, but we'll probably need/want to decide by late next year or early 2019. The GEHA HDHP covers maternity 100% *after* the deduc...