Search found 31 matches

by totesmagotes
Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4970

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Another big hitter with solid track record expressing concern: The investor said he is now about 25 percent exposed to the stock market. Tepper called the market "fairly valued" if the U.S. doesn't impose more tariffs on Chinese goods. "I've taken down my exposure [to equities]," he said. "I'm just...
by totesmagotes
Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student loan payoff help
Replies: 16
Views: 1407

Re: Student loan payoff help

What repayment plan are you currently on? What do you mean when you say she will be eligible for PSLF payoff at the end of this school year (or are you talking about a different type of loan forgiveness plan other than PSLF)? PSLF requirements are met after 120 monthly payments when on an eligible r...
by totesmagotes
Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nespresso?
Replies: 87
Views: 6360

Re: Nespresso?

i used one for a while. it was great. but the machine was a gift. while the pods are not cheap/environment etc, its still cheaper than SBs. I was over in the Netherlands for work several months ago and was able to pick up a bunch of pods at a Nespresso store at the AMS airport for about half the pr...
by totesmagotes
Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Diego - where to stay, what to do with 6 year old
Replies: 30
Views: 2128

Re: San Diego - where to stay, what to do with 6 year old

We plan to visit San Diego soon with our 6 year old. How many days do we need for LegoLand, SeaWorld, Zoo and Safari? Besides that, are there other places I should visit when we are in San Diego? We are flexible on number of days, but prefer 5 days or less. What areas should we try to find hotels/a...
by totesmagotes
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10385

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

Please tell me these are real returns. I suspect not. I'm pretty sure those are real return estimates. Those are predicted nominal returns. https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FA863418.pdf They're predicting inflation will stay around 2%, so real US market returns of 1-3% over the next decade. 10...
by totesmagotes
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better Behavioural Finance Books?
Replies: 17
Views: 1334

Re: Better Behavioural Finance Books?

I really liked "Misbehaving" by Thaler. I found it very accessible and interesting. Granted, I listened to the audiobook version on my long daily commute, but I really liked it. I didn't mind "Nudge", though I liked "Misbehaving" considerably more. If you want to get more academic and get into the n...
by totesmagotes
Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Theater PC Uses?
Replies: 15
Views: 1368

Re: Home Theater PC Uses?

IMO most of that can be done just as easily or more so with your day-to-day computer and a streaming stick such as Chromecast/Roku. With a HTPC you'll have to use some weird keyboard/mouse thing plus the extra space and expense without much additional functionality. I would only do it if I wanted a...
by totesmagotes
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2873

Re: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years

Schwab's market forecast - https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/why-market-returns-may-be-lower-in-the-future What do you think about this Schwab article ? Typically companies like Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity are not right on market commentary, outlook. Vanguard on 2017 outlook as...
by totesmagotes
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Left Advisory Portfolio to do it myself and fear I made mess of things
Replies: 35
Views: 2888

Re: Left Advisory Portfolio to do it myself and fear I made mess of things

I fear everything in one fund like the Fidelity Freedom® Index 2025 Fund or the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund even though those funds allocate between equities and bonds. I don't know why I don't lean more towards those. When I did my research, I studied them but didn't give them much considera...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tires: Where to Get? Warranty? And Questions?
Replies: 74
Views: 6734

Re: Tires: Where to Get? Warranty? And Questions?

I always decline Discount Tire's certificates (when I do, the salesman usually offers to discount the certificate price by 50%. I still decline them, as they're a poor deal for most people). I guess it depends on the specific model, the salesman, and the markup, but I once bought tires there with c...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds to 529 -- state tax deduction allowed?
Replies: 1
Views: 154

I bonds to 529 -- state tax deduction allowed?

I have several Series I bonds that I may or may not 'redeem' to move the proceeds over to a 529. Because of the Education Savings Bond Program, I will not need to pay income tax on interest payments from the I bonds since the redemption will be considered a qualified education expense (if funds are ...
by totesmagotes
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496816

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Dead cat bounce! Hang on folks! Looks like the cat bounced about 3:15 ET today. But who knows, it may have 8 additional lives. Please keep your arms and legs inside the ride vehicle at all times! Chartists have wonder descriptions, but their predictive value is only 100% in hindsight. We are seeing...
by totesmagotes
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to short TSLA?
Replies: 50
Views: 3254

Re: How to short TSLA?

Yes i Do not have a margin account. Just a simple vanguard brokerage. I do have a forex account that gives me access to margin, but for forex only. (Forex is where i got what knowledge i do have of shorting) Im going to take the next couple of days to study on this. And i appreciate all of your inp...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income
Replies: 190
Views: 18328

Re: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income

What if the mom doesn't want to work? That's a family decision not a 'mom' decision. It's going to be a hard one when you are $700/month in the hole and no longer saving anything at all. The OP has $67,000 in a taxable account. If the mom takes a year off to spend with the kid, they might use like ...
by totesmagotes
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?
Replies: 18
Views: 3239

Re: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?

Barry Ritholtz has asked this same question in a myriad of interviews with renowned economists and business leaders in his "Masters in Business" show and podcast on Bloomberg. Almost universally, the answer seems to be "No". As long as there are O(10%) people actively investing, it seems that ineffi...
by totesmagotes
Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Telematics and Auto Insurance
Replies: 13
Views: 995

Re: Telematics and Auto Insurance

I'm presupposing that insurers are offering this because it helps them save money in the long run. But how does the use of telematics save them money? I haven't figured that out yet. AFAIK, they don't raise your rates because of the data they collect, at least not directly. Of course, they could do ...
by totesmagotes
Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does a State job make it easier to get a FED job?
Replies: 10
Views: 1261

Re: Does a State job make it easier to get a FED job?

I went from a state position to a federal position. My impression as I was researching the hiring process was that it varies a lot depending upon the agency and the hiring manager. If you're previous state position is directly related to the federal position for which you're applying, then it makes ...
by totesmagotes
Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On Podcasts, timing the market vs Boglehead way - Fear of Missing out
Replies: 16
Views: 1675

Re: On Podcasts, timing the market vs Boglehead way - Fear of Missing out

While I am certainly glad to be a Boglehead, I found myself wanting to convince him on why I was right. He of course was trying to do the same. How do you tackle such situations? Both sides could provide evidence to boost their claims and have all kinds of data to back their arguments. The BH "way"...
by totesmagotes
Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dependent Childcare FSA
Replies: 3
Views: 410

Re: Dependent Childcare FSA

See https://www.fsafeds.com/explore/dcfsa/expenses for a sample of some relevant eligible expenses. In your case, you can see that "extended care" (e.g., before- and after-school care) is eligible. As long as you have eligible expenses, have earned income, and have an employer who offers the program...
by totesmagotes
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP 401k Contribution Question
Replies: 17
Views: 1328

Re: TSP 401k Contribution Question

I received an email notifying me that there are 27 EFT pay dates in 2018 and that I/we may need to adjust contributions to account for the additional pay period in 2018. I *think* this is because the EFT date for 2017 PP26 is 1/1/18 and the EFT date for 2018 PP26 is 12/31/18. The implication of the ...
by totesmagotes
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just not getting it [Stock Picking versus TSM]
Replies: 98
Views: 15721

Re: Just not getting it

I think a recently published article is relevant to the oft-discussed index vs. stock picking debate: Abstract Four out of every seven common stocks that have appeared in the CRSP database since 1926 have lifetime buy-and-hold returns less than one-month Treasuries. When stated in terms of lifetime ...
by totesmagotes
Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA Info
Replies: 8
Views: 849

Re: HSA Info

Can you get reimbursed receipts from the previous years or the current year only? I realize the HSA grows tax free and is tax free when you put into it. How does it become an IRA when you "come of age"? All my reading is it needs to be used for medical purposes etc or else a 20% penalty will be iss...
by totesmagotes
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Price of haircut?
Replies: 194
Views: 13755

Re: Price of haircut?

Wife does the cutting. Free! Same. She's cut my hair probably an average of 8 times per year for the past 9 years. On the rare occasion schedules don't work and I need to get it cut professionally, I go to a local cheap place for ~$18 (includes tip). So, 8*9*$18 = $1080 worth of cuts. We're on the ...
by totesmagotes
Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 156
Views: 19789

Re: Vanguard launching factor-based ETFs/funds

Interesting - Just in case anyone missed today's announcement from Vanguard re: their upcoming launch of factor-based ETFs/funds: https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/researchcommentary/article/IWE_News112817&sub=871538438&st=R If a bunch of money pours into the "Vanguard U.S. Value...
by totesmagotes
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation [in market crash]
Replies: 38
Views: 2996

Re: Asset Allocation [in market crash]

Well, in that instance, I might have went 100% stocks from 15% bonds in 2008, lost a little more but would have stayed 100% stocks until I felt the market recovered be it 1 year or a decade from then. There’s a difference between a “short dip” and a once/twice in a lifetime recession where the mark...
by totesmagotes
Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 FEHB HDHP Recommendations
Replies: 54
Views: 6703

Re: 2018 FEHB HDHP Recommendations

I am giving a presentation to the DC Bogleheads on a related topic, so I redid my comparisons for FEHB HDHPs versus conventional, and the HDHP is almost a guaranteed winner (as long as you won't be deterred from seeking necessary care due to the potential bills). I use GEHA in this comparison, as i...
by totesmagotes
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 FEHB HDHP Recommendations
Replies: 54
Views: 6703

Re: 2018 FEHB HDHP Recommendations

I'm a new fed and am currently enrolled in the GEHA HDHP, and I'm planning on keeping that option for 2018. My wife and I aren't sure if we're going to try for another kiddo, but we'll probably need/want to decide by late next year or early 2019. The GEHA HDHP covers maternity 100% *after* the deduc...
by totesmagotes
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?
Replies: 20
Views: 2153

Re: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?

I'm fairly new to index investing with bogleheads advice. Wondering what your thoughts on this article are... https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/14/robert-shiller-passive-investing-is-a-dangerous-chaotic-system.html Schiller is a smart guy, no doubt about it. But I don't get the issue. If too many people...
by totesmagotes
Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a reasonable emergency fund for HI family?
Replies: 67
Views: 4839

Re: What is a reasonable emergency fund for HI family?

What is a reasonable emergency fund for HI family? Many people argue its better to pay a monthly bill for disability, etc. and instead invest the rest. Is the 6 mo x monthly spending = emergency fund really sensible if your income is over 100k? Seems like an awful lot is just sitting in a bank acco...
by totesmagotes
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a reasonable emergency fund for HI family?
Replies: 67
Views: 4839

Re: What is a reasonable emergency fund for HI family?

What is a reasonable emergency fund for HI family? Many people argue its better to pay a monthly bill for disability, etc. and instead invest the rest. Is the 6 mo x monthly spending = emergency fund really sensible if your income is over 100k? Seems like an awful lot is just sitting in a bank acco...
by totesmagotes
Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loans: Best to Pay Down or Wait for Forgiveness?
Replies: 33
Views: 2978

Re: Student Loans: Best to Pay Down or Wait for Forgiveness?

Overall, I would suggest making a spreadsheet modeling the financial outcome after 19 more years with specific cells for salary growth, inflation, stock returns, etc. That may be helpful. For example, it may show that if you experience significant salary growth removing forgiveness, a home equity l...