Search found 252 matches

by financeperchance
Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fraudulent credit application blocked by freeze - should I worry?
Replies: 22
Views: 1953

Re: Fraudulent credit application blocked by freeze - should I worry?

So, should I take any action? Yes, someone has your name and/or SSN. Put a fraud alert on all three credit bureaus. I'm happy to see the freeze working as intended, but to protect yourself you will also need to put a fraud alert on your credit files. This explains the process: https://clark.com/sto...
by financeperchance
Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fraudulent credit application blocked by freeze - should I worry?
Replies: 22
Views: 1953

Re: Fraudulent credit application blocked by freeze - should I worry?

Hey bs010101, I was listening to an old Clark Howard podcast, and coincidentally there was a situation similar to yours. In addition to adding a fraud alert to your account (which you need to do because your ID *was* stolen from the facts you're presenting), Clark mentioned two other things (which w...
by financeperchance
Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fraudulent credit application blocked by freeze - should I worry?
Replies: 22
Views: 1953

Re: Fraudulent credit application blocked by freeze - should I worry?

So, should I take any action? Yes, someone has your name and/or SSN. Put a fraud alert on all three credit bureaus. I'm happy to see the freeze working as intended, but to protect yourself you will also need to put a fraud alert on your credit files. This explains the process: https://clark.com/sto...
by financeperchance
Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fraudulent credit application blocked by freeze - should I worry?
Replies: 22
Views: 1953

Re: Fraudulent credit application blocked by freeze - should I worry?

I'm happy to see the freeze working as intended, but to protect yourself you will also need to put a fraud alert on your credit files. This explains the process:
https://clark.com/story/identity-theft-guide/
by financeperchance
Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio check and help with AA
Replies: 9
Views: 752

Re: Portfolio check and help with AA

As a general rule, go for the funds that are the lowest-cost and give you the most diversification. A good-enough asset allocation is 60% stocks/40% bonds. So in your 401k, I'd look at just doing 60% Total Stock Market Index and 40% Total Bond Market Index. Yes, just keep the target retirement funds...
by financeperchance
Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 2
Views: 286

Re: Portfolio Review

I don't see the 10% bonds? Here's a paper on the Buffett 90/10 portfolio, which you should definitely read and understand: http://www.fmaconferences.org/Vegas/Pap ... FMA-LV.pdf

If I were you I would do a backdoor Roth IRA for sure. You still have time to get the 2019 contribution in.
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in a low interest rate environment versus dividend stream on index funds
Replies: 60
Views: 3071

Re: Bonds in a low interest rate environment versus dividend stream on index funds

I use 1.5% real in my planning. Still come out okay using other calculators with a 30/70 AA. 90% success rate. 70/30 is the same, with much more risk. I use 0% real for bonds in my planning. Those 2% numbers from JP Morgan, etc, are nominal. That's probably even better. PS watchnerd, I always appre...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30/70 is as good as 60/40
Replies: 112
Views: 9718

Re: 30/70 is as good as 60/40

Well that's weird. And check this out, this is the Monte Carlo of a 25 year-old contributing $6,000 to their Roth IRA for 40 years, in a 30/70 portfolio (notice how the unluckiest 10% still is a millionaire!): https://i.imgur.com/FqiBTIW.png Are you sure with the inputs? =FV(6.22%,40,6000,0,1) = $1...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30/70 is as good as 60/40
Replies: 112
Views: 9718

Re: 30/70 is as good as 60/40

You can find data to prove whatever you want to believe. :) Would the Monte Carlo simulation not be considered, at least to some degree, an objective finding, or objective estimate? I'm not Rick, but *ahem* Monte Carlos can show many things. Here's one, obviously not true, but it shows you can reti...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30/70 is as good as 60/40
Replies: 112
Views: 9718

Re: 30/70 is as good as 60/40

I'll take a stab at that. His point is that you can still do extremely well -- over the long haul, even in the accumulation phase, and with MUCH less risk -- with a 30/70 portfolio. I'm not sure if that is the point, I've kind of wrestled with that question myself. We are several decades in to a ve...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30/70 is as good as 60/40
Replies: 112
Views: 9718

Re: 30/70 is as good as 60/40

Well that's weird. And check this out, this is the Monte Carlo of a 25 year-old contributing $6,000 to their Roth IRA for 40 years, in a 30/70 portfolio (notice how the unluckiest 10% still is a millionaire!): https://i.imgur.com/FqiBTIW.png My I ask what you point is? Data can show weird results? ...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30/70 is as good as 60/40
Replies: 112
Views: 9718

Re: 30/70 is as good as 60/40

Well that's weird. And check this out, this is the Monte Carlo of a 25 year-old contributing $6,000 to their Roth IRA for 40 years, in a 30/70 portfolio (notice how the unluckiest 10% still is a millionaire!):

Image
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in a low interest rate environment versus dividend stream on index funds
Replies: 60
Views: 3071

Re: Bonds in a low interest rate environment versus dividend stream on index funds

A 60/40 Total Stock Market/Total Bond Market fund will give you a 4% safe withdrawal rate. Your dividend streams won't do that. Dividend streams are actually surprisingly stable compared to share prices: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/04/why-it-makes-no-sense-to-compare-dividend-yields-to-bo...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in a low interest rate environment versus dividend stream on index funds
Replies: 60
Views: 3071

Re: Bonds in a low interest rate environment versus dividend stream on index funds

A 60/40 Total Stock Market/Total Bond Market fund will give you a 4% safe withdrawal rate. Your dividend streams won't do that.
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Professor Jeremy Siegel says 75/25 in retirement]
Replies: 87
Views: 9796

Re: [Professor Jeremy Siegel says 75/25 in retirement]

If you game this out, let's suppose interest rates start to rise again. Those things do still fluctuate, right? Stock prices start to go down, down, down -- because as Buffett puts it, interest rates are to stock prices as gravity is to physics: https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/Publications/Region...
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downside to using Cash Back credit cards
Replies: 40
Views: 5155

Re: Downside to using Cash Back credit cards

You have to pay it off before the statement closing date. The only thing that gets reported to your credit file is what that balance is on that date. To maximize your credit score, you want your utilization to be 1% of your available credit.
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How should I plan ahead to change my AA?
Replies: 4
Views: 305

Re: How should I plan ahead to change my AA?

OP, 60/40 is good enough for you at all times. So, why do you want to optimize and hope to change your AA at the right time? KlangFool I believe I would be more comfortable with slightly more equities in my portfolio knowing I have a partial pension in retirement. Should I not be factoring my pensi...
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time home buyers using funds in a Roth IRA for a down payment?
Replies: 29
Views: 1975

Re: First time home buyers using funds in a Roth IRA for a down payment?

Terrible idea. Don’t do it. IRA space is valuabke. Once that money is spent you can’t put it back. Save it for retirement. Much better to save up for the down payment. Yes, this. The Roth IRA is so friggin' important in retirement, you just can't overstate it. It's much more valuable to get that ta...
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you think I should get a dedicated Chromebook for my financial accounts?
Replies: 60
Views: 5165

Re: Do you think I should get a dedicated Chromebook for my financial accounts?

Use your financial Chromebook only for checking the money that you have (Vanguard, banks, etc.), not for the money you owe like taxes, credit cards, etc. Also do zero email-checking or web surfing on your financial Chromebook. For more information: https://clark.com/personal-finance-credit/financial...
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Question about Bonds. When you are owning only local bonds is that a home bias decision?
Replies: 22
Views: 1003

Re: Question about Bonds. When you are owning only local bonds is that a home bias decision?

If you are looking at population we have 17.9% of Humanity in our country. I would not bet money against 17.9% of Humanity. The ingenuity of the people here always amazes me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_population_percentage.png You're getting too much into the weeds with this stuff. J...
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VBIAX in taxable account [Vanguard Balanced Index Fund]
Replies: 11
Views: 1898

Re: VBIAX in taxable account

If I were in your shoes, I would go into this one and be done with it:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/VTMFX
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros & Cons of accepting HELOC?
Replies: 13
Views: 1021

Re: Pros & Cons of accepting HELOC?

You could accomplish the same thing with your credit score (i.e., increasing the denominator for your credit utilization) just by taking out a new credit card.
by financeperchance
Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First time home buyers using funds in a Roth IRA for a down payment?
Replies: 29
Views: 1975

Re: First time home buyers using funds in a Roth IRA for a down payment?

Terrible idea. Don’t do it. IRA space is valuabke. Once that money is spent you can’t put it back. Save it for retirement. Much better to save up for the down payment. Yes, this. The Roth IRA is so friggin' important in retirement, you just can't overstate it. It's much more valuable to get that ta...
by financeperchance
Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Question about Bonds. When you are owning only local bonds is that a home bias decision?
Replies: 22
Views: 1003

Re: Question about Bonds. When you are owning only local bonds is that a home bias decision?

No. Home bias is a factor with stocks, where in the Boglehead philosophy you're ideally betting on the wisdom of crowds, but not with bonds. The point of your bond allocation is that it should have low or ideally negative correlation with the equity side of your portfolio, especially during times wh...
by financeperchance
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple vs. Complex, 2019 Edition
Replies: 5
Views: 715

Re: Simple vs. Complex, 2019 Edition

Absolutely hilarious. Basically, just get VBINX, the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, and over a 10-year period you'll do just as well as most of these bozos that charge the high fees to run the portfolios, especially (I bet) on risk-adjusted basis: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2...
by financeperchance
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another - Should I Pay Down the Mortgage (Military)
Replies: 10
Views: 896

Re: Another - Should I Pay Down the Mortgage (Military)

Is the tax you're paying more than $4,700? If so, then I'd be reluctant to do it for that reason (i.e, losing money!). Are you getting a pension? Why not just pay it down using your cash flows? It's not that high of a balance.
by financeperchance
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Broadens Reach With Entry Into Private Equity
Replies: 69
Views: 4983

Re: Vanguard Broadens Reach With Entry Into Private Equity

james22 wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:44 pm I was an unhappy Porsche loyalist when they first offered an SUV, but doing so allowed them to continue to build (better) sports cars.

If a private-equity fund allows Vanguard to lower the cost of the funds I hold, or expand their offerings of funds I'd like to hold, great.
Excellent point!
by financeperchance
Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth, Long term care & tax avoidance
Replies: 10
Views: 993

Re: Roth, Long term care & tax avoidance

I suggest not letting such a specific scenario like this guide your planning.
by financeperchance
Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is most likely to happen to bond funds if equities suffer in coronavirus fallout?
Replies: 33
Views: 3568

Re: What is most likely to happen to bond funds if equities suffer in coronavirus fallout?

If this virus becomes a pandemic that severely reduces economic output, would a bond fund be a better hedge against an equities downturn than cash? I have a huge amount of my portfolio in BIV (intermediate bonds—about half government bonds, half corporate), and my expectation is that if the virus i...
by financeperchance
Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Broadens Reach With Entry Into Private Equity
Replies: 69
Views: 4983

Re: Vanguard Broadens Reach With Entry Into Private Equity

I see what you’re saying but what about other toll bridges in the investment universe? I feel like very few people here are thinking of investing in toll bridges. Even now that you explain it does anybody want to do that? I do it. Yes but I gathered you're not the average investor. If PE was made a...
by financeperchance
Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Broadens Reach With Entry Into Private Equity
Replies: 69
Views: 4983

Re: Vanguard Broadens Reach With Entry Into Private Equity

That sound you hear is John Bogle spinning in his grave. <sigh> Yes, exactly this. I just got done re-reading Common Sense on Mutual Funds, and the idea that Bogle would have in any way been happy about this private equity fund is gaslighting, pure and simple. Maybe Vanguard's present management se...
by financeperchance
Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you think Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund will do over the next ten years?
Replies: 30
Views: 4256

Re: How do you think Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund will do over the next ten years?

Regarding the Wellesley Income (VWINX) compared to LS Conservative Growth Index (VSCGX) matter, following is one year / five year/ 10 year average annual return data for the two funds: 14.19% / 6.62% / 8.15% - Wellesley Income 12.18% / 5.70% / 6.78% - LS Conservative Growth Index While indexing the...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use anything other than 1 fund if you have a long term horizon?
Replies: 19
Views: 1795

Re: Why use anything other than 1 fund if you have a long term horizon?

I did simple backtesting based on the wiki I found here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio VTSAX VTIAX VBTLX Granted that some of these funds are recent, there is not enough historical data. If I understand correctly, the reason to have a well diversified portfolio is to minimize...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use anything other than 1 fund if you have a long term horizon?
Replies: 19
Views: 1795

Re: Why use anything other than 1 fund if you have a long term horizon?

Because absolutely nothing stops the stock market from going down 89% over the next 3 years... and taking 25 years to recover.

That's the exact scenario that Warren Buffett's dad faced, by the way, and is not something incorporated into the portfoliovisualizer data.
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you think Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund will do over the next ten years?
Replies: 30
Views: 4256

Re: How do you think Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund will do over the next ten years?

Do you think that these folks have special insights and a special culture that make them smarter than the collective wisdom of the market as a whole? https://www.wellington.com/en/our-culture/ If not, then I would suggest simply owning this fund: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/o...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you think Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund will do over the next ten years?
Replies: 30
Views: 4256

Re: How do you think Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund will do over the next ten years?

Once you get past the active vs. indexed debate, it's important to understand that you don't make money from past success. Investing is all about the future. So I would make sure I'm comfortable with the evolution in Wellington Management's culture. This video from 7 years ago shows the way they use...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you think Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund will do over the next ten years?
Replies: 30
Views: 4256

Re: How do you think Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund will do over the next ten years?

Do you think that these folks have special insights and a special culture that make them smarter than the collective wisdom of the market as a whole? https://www.wellington.com/en/our-culture/ If not, then I would suggest simply owning this fund: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/ov...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 funding strategy
Replies: 8
Views: 1016

Re: 529 funding strategy

@financeperchance while the returns aren't stellar, the properties have appreciated nicely. I understand future appreciation isn't guaranteed and also feel they add diversification along with tax benefits. lol a rental house is not more diversified than owning countless numbers of companies in a st...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know we dont buy individual stocks....
Replies: 31
Views: 3209

Re: I know we dont buy individual stocks....

But anyone following XOM right now? If I had a little extra money, Id prob throw some into XOM right now at a 10 year low. Of course no more than 5% of my total portfolio, if I had any money it would be less than 1% of my portfolio I would buy.... Besides that, anyone else liking XOM right now, why...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what cost/savings would you install solar panels?
Replies: 16
Views: 1343

Re: At what cost/savings would you install solar panels?

igotashoe wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:57 am selling the house with a solar package was another risk on ROI.
Image
https://www.zillow.com/research/solar-p ... ore-23798/
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Challenging a Fraudulent Credit Card Charge
Replies: 16
Views: 1805

Re: Challenging a Fraudulent Credit Card Charge

I called Chase and told them I wanted to escalate/appeal my complaint. They transferred me to a supervisor, who immediately said she would credit my account the amount at issue. I have to say, the people working for Chase are very courteous - I've called them a number of times with questions or iss...
by financeperchance
Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 funding strategy
Replies: 8
Views: 1016

Re: 529 funding strategy

I suggest you sell rental #2 rather than taking out the mortgage on it. You're only getting a 2.8% return with that rental income. Rental #1 doesn't seem so great either -- why not sell it too, and take all that cash? You can then easily wipe out the $530k mortgage, fund the 529s as planned, and inv...
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Autobalancing fund that uses long term treasuries for bond portion?
Replies: 7
Views: 677

Re: Autobalancing fund that uses long term treasuries for bond portion?

How do you define long-term? If you use the Investopedia definition of 10 years being the threshold, then Wellesley Income is what you're looking for, with an average effective maturity 10.1 years: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vwiax
by financeperchance
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a used Honda Pilot
Replies: 8
Views: 675

Re: Buying a used Honda Pilot

I recommend following the steps laid out here:
https://clark.com/cars/how-buy-used-car/
by financeperchance
Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best bank for holding EF and short term savings?
Replies: 40
Views: 2733

Re: Best bank for holding EF and short term savings?

Fitness Bank pays 2.2% APY if you can do 12,500 steps a day. Heard about it on Clark Howard:
https://www.fitnessbank.fit/
by financeperchance
Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Challenging a Fraudulent Credit Card Charge
Replies: 16
Views: 1805

Re: Challenging a Fraudulent Credit Card Charge

Hold on here, before closing the credit card, which is a drastic step that can harm your credit score (age of accounts + credit utilization), please call and speak to Chase's fraud department. They're a reputable firm, and their fraud department is very good -- I've dealt with them many times over t...
by financeperchance
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current favorite play money stocks.
Replies: 8
Views: 581

Re: Current favorite play money stocks.

Boston Omaha (ticker: BOMN), a mini-Berkshire Hathaway run by Warren Buffett's grand nephew. It has investments: 1) in highway billboards, which is a wide-moat business and is where most of their cash flows are coming from 2) surety insurance (when a plumber says he's "licensed and bonded"...
by financeperchance
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know we dont buy individual stocks....
Replies: 31
Views: 3209

Re: I know we dont buy individual stocks....

Nothing wrong with having a small "mad money" part of your portfolio. XOM is cheap compared with recent cash flows, but if I were to buy it, I would make sure I could refute this Stanford professor, who says that oil is doomed because of the rise of electric vehicles: https://www.youtube.c...
by financeperchance
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FISVX: Fidelity Small Cap Value Index Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2361

Re: FISVX

For example, this paper argues that the MSCI Minimium Volatility index (which USMV follows), loses about .44% of return per year to front-running: https://www.pggm.nl/english/what-we-think/Documents/thesis_VBA_RK_final.pdf. Now, I haven't seen multiple independent verifications of this conclusion, ...
by financeperchance
Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do analyst forecasts have any value?
Replies: 25
Views: 1901

Re: Do analyst forecasts have any value?

I came across some folks claiming you can improve (https://blog.lucenaresearch.com/are-analysts-ratings-predictive) A severe limitation of that study was that it was just for the year 2010. How would that strategy have done in other years? A hobby of mine is looking for stuff like this, and every t...