Search found 1093 matches

by fennewaldaj
Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will international stocks "mean revert" and begin beating domestic stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 8918

Re: Why will international stocks "mean revert" and begin beating domestic stocks?

At the moment Europe Japan and EM all have better Price to earnings growth ratios than the US. Seems like a decent chance that leads to outperformance.
by fennewaldaj
Sun Nov 21, 2021 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do companies still offer dividends?
Replies: 68
Views: 6532

Re: Why do companies still offer dividends?

The only point of owning public stocks is the eventual value of their dividends (at a theoretical level). Yeah buybacks are similar for a time but A company can't entirely eat itself. That is not to say that stock that currently pay dividends should be value over those that don't. Can you explain about a company "eating itself"? Whether a company is sending money out the door as dividends or as buybacks, in both cases the money goes to existing shareholders. If sent as dividends, the money goes out proportional to the number of shares owned. If sent as buybacks, it goes to those who choose to sell. How does one way of returning capital "eat" the company more than the other? Reducing its share count. Just pointing out sh...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Nov 20, 2021 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do companies still offer dividends?
Replies: 68
Views: 6532

Re: Why do companies still offer dividends?

The only point of owning public stocks is the eventual value of their dividends (at a theoretical level). Yeah buybacks are similar for a time but A company can't entirely eat itself. That is not to say that stock that currently pay dividends should be value over those that don't.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations: 1999 vs now
Replies: 152
Views: 14620

Re: Valuations: 1999 vs now

That's why I added that 30 year SWRs were slightly improved over that same period by diversifying across ex-U.S. stock. I'm sure the Japanese-only investor, with data through the late 80's, could have claimed a nice SWR and determined that international diversification was not needed going forward. All that means is that things have been relatively favorable for the US investor in the past. Extrapolating that out and determining nothing can go wrong here in the U.S. in the next 50 years or that if it does, the aggregate of tens of other countries will be impacted is just as much of an extreme leap. Japan is regularly mentioned in these discussions, but it's not even remotely on par with where the U.S. is now. IIRC, the CAPE for Japan reach...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations: 1999 vs now
Replies: 152
Views: 14620

Re: Valuations: 1999 vs now

Keenobserver wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:35 am Do you guys thibk Real Estate at least is in a bubble, or do folks here surmise prices will continue to climb?
US real estate isn't even expensive (in terms of multiples of income) relative to many other places like Canda, Austrialia, and China)
by fennewaldaj
Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations: 1999 vs now
Replies: 152
Views: 14620

Re: Valuations: 1999 vs now

invest2bfree wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:24 am
If bonds are in a bubble with negative real yields you cannot use bonds as a method to value stocks.
The thing is there is some reason to believe bonds with negative or close to negative real rates will be the standard going foward.
by fennewaldaj
Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 618996

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

000 wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 7:45 pm Are you all aware of any good International SCV funds that include both developed and emerging?
GVAL (Cambria Global value) might count. But it doesn't include every market.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 618996

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Is today's SCV over LCG growth rotation tied to any piece of news? Usually with something this dramatic you expect to see a cause.
by fennewaldaj
Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119632

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Forester wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 am Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
There are a lot of them in China from what I have read. It still seems mostly a China thing. There capital markets are fairly walled off from the rest of the world. There are a few markets in the rest of the world that have property price/income ratios similar to China but those are more the exception than the norm.
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 618996

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

countmein wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:23 am Anyone want to try to make sense of today's (thursday) wild moves?

small value: down 3.5%
gold: down 4%
10 year yield: down 4%
this perhaps?
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jo ... ead-update
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The International Cap Weight (and Beyond!) Discussion Thread
Replies: 253
Views: 21561

Re: The International Cap Weight (and Beyond!) Discussion Thread

I assume that there exists a relative valuation of US and international stocks at which they are equally good investments. And I have no idea where that point is. So I buy both. I have never understood how some people don’t get this point. There could literally be “anti-innovation” laws in France, UK, Japan, etc. There could be widespread public opinion in those countries that “corporations are evil.” There could be “mandatory 5-hour mid-day nap” laws that hampered employee productivity. And STILL investments in those countries could outperform US equities. They could, but that would be extremely unlikely. By the way, according to Vanguard, VXUS P/E is about 18x, and VTI P/E is about 27x. Not a difference that would make your scenario work...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The International Cap Weight (and Beyond!) Discussion Thread
Replies: 253
Views: 21561

Re: The Official Bogleheads INTERNATIONAL CAP WEIGHT (AND BEYOND!) Discussion Thread

I am a bit above cap weight as I go with a 50/50 split. I have contemplated going past that to like 60/40 or even further.
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 757
Views: 59459

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

Also, many effectively foreign companies are actually listed on the US stock market, or they get gobbled up by US-listed companies. A classic example is Israeli companies. The Israeli stock market has been stagnating for many years. The thing is that some of their most successful companies are listed in the US and not in Israel, and many of their successful new companies get acquired by US-listed companies. Generally US listed companies that are from other countries get included in indexes in their home country. Like Alibaba for example appears in international funds not US funds. BABA is an ADR - that's different. I'm talking about foreign companies that have regular listings, such as the Dutch company NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) which is p...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jun 05, 2021 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 757
Views: 59459

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

visualguy wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:18 pm

Also, many effectively foreign companies are actually listed on the US stock market, or they get gobbled up by US-listed companies. A classic example is Israeli companies. The Israeli stock market has been stagnating for many years. The thing is that some of their most successful companies are listed in the US and not in Israel, and many of their successful new companies get acquired by US-listed companies.
Generally US listed companies that are from other countries get included in indexes in their home country. Like Alibaba for example appears in international funds not US funds.
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jun 05, 2021 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 757
Views: 59459

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

visualguy wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 12:01 am Electric cars are a good example. German companies are leaders in quality car design and manufacturing, but Tesla happened in the US, not Germany. Similarly with Japan.
Sure but Telsa might not be the biggest winner in the electric car market in the long term. It could be Volkswagen or Honda or whatever. And Tesla shares are super expensive so even if they do fairly well it does not guarantee good results.
by fennewaldaj
Mon May 31, 2021 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 757
Views: 59459

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

Browser wrote: Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:15 pm
Since US companies are already deriving half their revenues from foreign countries, if you invest in foreign equities wouldn't that mean that much more than half of the revenues generated by companies in your global stock portfolio be derived from non-U.S. sources? Is that what you want?
Yes
by fennewaldaj
Sat May 01, 2021 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM local debt - diversification benefits?
Replies: 8
Views: 953

Re: EM local debt - diversification benefits?

Dont you run the risk of indirectly also investing into forex, I mean if currency fluctuates your gains can be wiped/impacted. To give an example, one of my friends invested into a fund(almost like stable value fund), but in a local currency, while yield was 8%, but currency fluctuation wiped it all out as the local currency dropped vs Dollar, and I think he was pretty close to being break even if not losing some money. With bonds probably even worst as yield is not fixed, LEMB is -3.6% for the year. The forex thing is actually one of the appeals of investing in local currency EM bonds. JackoC explained out why is his post better than I could. Not likely something many people would want a 50% position or anything but a nice diversifier.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM has concentrated risk in china/taiwan
Replies: 94
Views: 10950

Re: EM has concentrated risk in china/taiwan

stan1 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:25 am
sunnywindy wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:06 am (Note: This is not intended as a political post - I'm just stating a couple of important facts that are germane to the overall discussion.)

Why are people lopping together Taiwan and China as if they are one entity in the EM Index country weightings? Taiwan has had its own currency since 1949 and its own stock exchange since 1961. The weightings should be treated as separate.
Their economies are very interconnected, albeit in a complicated way.
But so is the economy of Japan. And South Korea. And the US for that matter.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651442

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

z3r0c00l wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:30 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:28 am Asia and Europe are getting pummeled today but VXUS is still up?
Japanese government announced that they will no longer promise to buy about $50 billion in Japanese stocks per year. They might keep buying, but are not married to that number. -1.4% doesn't seem so bad in light of that announcement.
Its probably about time they withdrew that guarantee anyway. Japanese stocks have been doing ok.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 13344

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

Always passive wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:43 am
Rainier wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:46 am Just to confirm, the US dollar based foreign bond funds are useless if trying to diversify out of the US dollar. You might get a good yield due to the higher risk of the issuer but no protection if the US dollar falls in value.
If the funds does not invest in the local currency, you are absolutely right. Many emerging markets bond funds invest in loans taken by emerging markets in dollars. Those do not provide any hedge against dollar weakness.
Not directly no but presumably default risk will be lower for USD EM bonds in the currencies of those countries strengthen vs the USD. That could lead to narrowing spreads.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 13344

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

stimulacra wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:00 pm
2) Any good funds for EM bonds?
EMLC for local currency EM bonds

https://www.vaneck.com/etf/income/emlc/overview/
by fennewaldaj
Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Growth’s Outperformance Over Small Value
Replies: 24
Views: 2583

Re: Large Growth’s Outperformance Over Small Value

TheDoctor91 wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:07 am What about when accounting for monthly contributions?

LCG laps SCV
Yeah that is always going to favor what has the most recent outperformance (since you got to buy the currently outperforming asset "on sale")
by fennewaldaj
Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You
Replies: 86
Views: 13719

Re: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You

mrspock wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:15 pm
Random Walker wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:58 pm He makes the point that we should not expect past performances to repeat unless we expect past multiple expansions to continue expanding indefinitely out into the future.
Over the long run.... that’s exactly what I expect. The US has certain structural, legal, geographic, political and cultural advantages which I find difficult to overlook. Maybe not indefinitely... but long enough that it will be somebody else’s problem when that day comes.
But its one thing to expect the US to continue to have a valuation gap with the rest of the world and quite anther to expect the gap to keep getting wider. As is shown in the article most of the outperformance of the US over international was from the valuation gap getting wider.
by fennewaldaj
Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You
Replies: 86
Views: 13719

Re: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You

People using such metrics are ignoring the ever-shrinking measuring stick, bond yields. As these have been driven ever lower, the value of out year earnings in growth names has risen. So long as you have faith in TPTB to keep a lid on rates a la Japan, the current environment obtains. JMHO.’ But that is kinda missing the point. Unless you expect the value spread to keep getting wider you should still subtract the effects of multiple expansion when looking at the premium. Even Schiller has tweaked his model. The CAPE model was developed back when you could still get a real return on bonds. If you think about it, stocks don’t owe you any particular return, as measured by P/E, and the idea that there is some natural level such as 15-20 isn’t ...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You
Replies: 86
Views: 13719

Re: Cliff Asness: The Long Run Is Lying To You

dmcmahon wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:35 am People using such metrics are ignoring the ever-shrinking measuring stick, bond yields. As these have been driven ever lower, the value of out year earnings in growth names has risen. So long as you have faith in TPTB to keep a lid on rates a la Japan, the current environment obtains. JMHO.’
But that is kinda missing the point. Unless you expect the value spread to keep getting wider you should still subtract the effects of multiple expansion when looking at the premium.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have "fun" ETFs?
Replies: 62
Views: 4953

Re: Does anyone have "fun" ETFs?

I have ~$400 in TUR the Turkey single country etf. I guess that counts.
by fennewaldaj
Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256171

Re: Bonds in free fall

Too bad I wanted bonds to keep freefalling a few more days.
by fennewaldaj
Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651442

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

DB2 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:47 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:46 pm Fed can still QE the long end of the yield curve down. :twisted:
And folks, we have a winner. :dollar :P
Yeah I presume their a point they won't let the 30 year go above. 3.5% maybe?
by fennewaldaj
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651442

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Today continues the value rotation trend of the week as the value side of the style box is down less.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 618996

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

So small value is up on the S+P 500 going back to the beginning of 2020. It sure caught up fast. It was 20% behind at the end of October.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119632

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Everyday this week has been an into value rotation. Not sure if that is significant or not.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 618996

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Is anyone aware of some good research into why AVUV is better than a fund like IJS/SLYV? It’s not “better”. It’s just different. AVUV, VIOV, VBR, etc all fine funds. And who says you can’t own more than one? If you're tilting toward a factor, one ETF could absolutely be "better" if it captures that factor better. Anyway, here's why Paul Merriman recommends AVUV for SCV . The problem imo as there are multiple ways to measure factors. Like for value if you use Fama French models the ones that sort by just price to book are going to look better. But price to book is potentially the measure we should be most skeptical of going forward. Some people like EV/EBITDA or PE or P/CF ect. But we really don't know which methodology will work ...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256171

Re: Bonds in free fall

checkyourmath wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:46 pm
checkyourmath wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:58 pm Bonds are not in free fall. An interest rate cut will be coming in March like usual. A cut in rates means an increase in price which is great for bond holders! I wouldn't have sold my amazing bonds in 2017 if I had known that they were going to drive to the interest rate down to zero. Lesson learned! I don't think bonds will go negative in the US which is the good news.
Which interest rate cut are you speaking of? The Fed doesn't have much room to cut it further.
The annual March 15th rate cut. Small cuts are big gains. They aren't going to go negative if that helps.
Umm the rate is already 0-0.25%. There is no more to cut unless they go negative. And the fed doesn't control long term rates.
by fennewaldaj
Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Abandon Fama French Factor Model?
Replies: 52
Views: 4637

Re: Abandon Fama French Factor Model?

I don't think the 1 3 and 5 year numbers mean much because so much of it is driven by multiple expansion of growth stocks. Value underperformed in the 5 years prior to that but is was a much smaller thing driven by fundamentals. So yes its possible value doesn't have a premium anymore but the scale of the underperformance recently isn't what would make that argument.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256171

Re: Bonds in free fall

Even though I own some long bonds I am unhappy every time I see them go up (outside of market cirsis). I want to see the long yield get back to 3.5% or so.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 210374

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

jay22 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:11 pm
Californiastate wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:01 pm Cathie Wood is the new Elaine Garzerilli. Her spoken name alone evokes EF Hutton. I wish the best for her but in the end the peloton usually consumes the baroudeur. She now seems to be doubling down on TSLA. We'll see how this plays out.
Tesla is less than 10% of ARK funds holdings.
10% is not a small amount of one stock you know.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 618996

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

yeah that is the case for most of the SCV funds now. Not surprising as trailing earnings are almost all in the pandemic.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Courses and what current ones miss (I miss something every time I buy one..!)
Replies: 7
Views: 1498

Re: Great Courses and what current ones miss (I miss something every time I buy one..!)

There is a relatively new course called how to plan the perfect retirement that is quite good. Also on great courses plus.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly crosses 30,000 for first time in more than three decades
Replies: 60
Views: 7372

Re: Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly crosses 30,000 for first time in more than three decades

I wonder if the Nikkei 225 will reach an ath in the next few years? My guess is by the end of the decade at a minimum it likely will. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen in 2-4 years.
by fennewaldaj
Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overweighting VWO because of China!
Replies: 57
Views: 6092

Re: Overweighting VWO because of China!

If you wanted more China my inclination would be to use an A shares specific fund. Those are the shares that are not represented fully (or maybe at all ) in VT.
by fennewaldaj
Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can 6.45% be a bubble?
Replies: 47
Views: 6996

Re: How can 6.45% be a bubble?

Well stocks were in a bubble 20 years ago for sure. That has a lot to do with the just ok returns.
by fennewaldaj
Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 210374

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

Meh. She destroyed total market funds in the past. Will she in the future? Was she skilled or just lucky. Or perhaps a bit of both. If she was skilled will she be able to continue the performance with way more assets? Its hard to say. Obviously if I knew the future I would have invested in her fund over VTI but I don't so I didn't.
by fennewaldaj
Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A discussion of popular/promising factor ETFs
Replies: 33
Views: 5323

Re: A discussion of popular/promising factor ETFs

But has it really made any meaningful difference? I am not smart enough to know why, but (as is a common criticism of factor funds) something must be getting lost in the implementation. I can't post the fancy graphs, but go to Portfolio Visualizer and backtest IJS versus VISVX from 2001 to present, then from 2013 to present, as they changed to the CRSP Index in April 2013. I am just not seeing a meaningful difference in behavior versus the S&P 600 Index. I've never been particularly interested in IJS so had never actually checked the methodology, but it looks like it works the same way as VBR: The index constituents are then sorted in ascending order of the ratio Growth Rank/Value Rank. The companies at the top of the list have a highe...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119632

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

rockstar wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:08 pm These are crazy. The NASDAQ 100 is cheaper than the S&P 500.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields

While bonds are just shy of 100x.
Less companies that lost money in 2020 in the NASDAQ probably. I would expect it to go back to the normal relationship in 2021 or 2022
by fennewaldaj
Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA: What Changed?
Replies: 1158
Views: 137370

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

2. A great marketing tool to show Tesla is thinking ahead, is embracing new technologies and more modern ways of doing business. I know this is going to be hard for many at Bogleheads to accept, but cryptocurrencies are seen as the future by a lot of people, especially younger people. Tesla aligning itself with that vision is incredibly shrewd. I am aware that that opinion exist but I admit I don't really get it. Bitcoin isn't useful for anything legal really. I mean it makes sense for Tesla to do this because people who love Bitcoin and Tesla overlap a lot. I think a better formulation here is, " I believe Bitcoin isn't useful for anything legal really." It's like saying rock and roll is silly and not really of any value, can't ...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not add high-yield bonds?
Replies: 101
Views: 11701

Re: Why not add high-yield bonds?

What are you thoughts on EM government bonds in a scenario in which all stocks become extremely expensive? I understand that they are stock like in their risk but it seems to me that their risk profile might be favorable if global CAPE (or whatever metric you want to use) reaches 35 or 40. For instance, they performed very well from 2000-2003 and in the 2008 financial crisis they recovered quickly enough that they had a different bottom. Thoughts? I have a slice of these as well in the form of Vanguard's active fund VEGBX. I held EMB for several years but I like the active management of VEGBX better for this asset class of course this introduces manager risk as well. I would probably give up my allocation to ANGL before I give up my alloca...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA: What Changed?
Replies: 1158
Views: 137370

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:24 am

2. A great marketing tool to show Tesla is thinking ahead, is embracing new technologies and more modern ways of doing business. I know this is going to be hard for many at Bogleheads to accept, but cryptocurrencies are seen as the future by a lot of people, especially younger people. Tesla aligning itself with that vision is incredibly shrewd.

I am aware that that opinion exist but I admit I don't really get it. Bitcoin isn't useful for anything legal really. I mean it makes sense for Tesla to do this because people who love Bitcoin and Tesla overlap a lot.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are factors (size, value, etc.) simply another way to adjust risk?
Replies: 25
Views: 1968

Re: Are factors (size, value, etc.) simply another way to adjust risk?

I've heard factors explained as a way of taking on additional risk. Meaning, the reason they return a premium could be explained by the fact that you are taking on additional risk. My question is: does increased exposure to factors actually increase returns on a risk-adjusted basis, or is it merely increasing risk? Expanding on that a bit, I'm essentially picturing in my head a dial. Turn the dial left and you decrease risk/reward. Turn the dial right and you increase risk/reward. Leverage is a perfect example of this risk dial. So I'm wondering is factor exposure merely another way of turning this dial, akin to leverage? Or would increased factor exposure have some sort of diversifying affect, as if it is a different kind of risk compared...