Search found 946 matches

by fennewaldaj
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 1767

Re: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?

Nisiprius's post was illuminating. Two stock markets went to zero?!! That's certainly a difficult down market to have to withstand! There is a simple way to avoid this. Don't invest in single market. I am not sure there is really that much way to avoid your home market going to zero. The things tha...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 2989

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

petulant wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 4:59 pm

Alternatively, the U.S. could impose capital controls that result in American investors trying to firesale Chinese stocks, resulting in losses. My point should be taken as illustrate and not exhaustive.
At the moment this seems like a bigger risk than China disallowing investments.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COVID-19 effect on globalization and international investment allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 991

Re: COVID-19 effect on globalization and international investment allocation

Many economic analysts are predicting that the 2020 coronavirus pandemic will alter or reverse the trend towards globalization. If that happens, what impact would this have on the assumptions underlying total market and total world allocation? IMHO the classic camps (thou must hold the world alloca...
by fennewaldaj
Sun May 31, 2020 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Is the Stock Market Even for Anymore?
Replies: 25
Views: 3739

Re: What Is the Stock Market Even for Anymore?

Only 17% of American workers are employed by a company in the S&P 500. That alone indicates rather strongly that the stock market and the economy are not equivalent. I don't believe that they ever have been for that matter. Further, the stock market is forward looking. Most of the measures of the e...
by fennewaldaj
Fri May 29, 2020 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 17283

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

My business in rural midwest has recovered quite well. Pre Covid I was seeing 100 patients per week. At the nadir it was 10 patients /week. Now it is 90/week. My area has been only mildly affected and the best guess is that we will never get hit like the major cities. My employer has cut physician ...
by fennewaldaj
Wed May 27, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 123
Views: 7883

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Not really a market timing attempt but I had a limit order in for Vanguard S+P 600 value VIOV that triggered at the interday low (out to 2 decimal places)on the lowest day so far. It was only like 6 shares but still a fun story.
by fennewaldaj
Wed May 27, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 17283

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

This is temporary. Businesses are closed (were closed) because they had to, not because there was a problem with the economy. They’ll open, people will be rehired, life will move on, markets will go up. lots of jobs cut are not coming back in the near future, if ever. Hertz, neiman marcus, and othe...
by fennewaldaj
Mon May 18, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16280

Re: American exceptionalism

It seems that fast GDP growth results in poor domestic stock returns. The correlation has been negative so far. So I would expect that the Western world will profit the most from Chinas growth. Though perhaps now with China's GDP growth likely going towards the 4-5% range perhaps more more existing...
by fennewaldaj
Sun May 17, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41893

Re: Why international?

Try plotting this against CXSE. I would, but I'm on a smart phone and it's a pain to post an image. How many U.S. investors have a big stake in Chinese stocks? I certainly wouldn't. So you would deliberately ignore one of the largest economies in the world? That would be an active investment strate...
by fennewaldaj
Sun May 17, 2020 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is QQQ (Nasdaq100) better reflective of new economy
Replies: 60
Views: 3922

Re: Is QQQ (Nasdaq100) better reflective of new economy

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 3:16 am

This doesn't mean these companies cannot be overvalued.
Or that stodgy behind the times companies can't have good returns. Like railroad stocks in the later part of the 20th century.
by fennewaldaj
Sun May 17, 2020 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18559

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

If you own long-term bonds now, you're betting that you can get out just before everyone else does. Or you’re deciding that you don’t want to bet at all. If you don’t want to have an unexpected loss, choose an investment that won’t give you one. That’s what long-term bond investors have been doing ...
by fennewaldaj
Sun May 17, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?
Replies: 47
Views: 4015

Re: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?

Mr. Asness's article makes the point that value however you wish to measure it is now dirt cheap or at least it was when the article was published. He suggests it's at all time lows by a composite of PE, PB, PS, and next year's estimated PE. It's a screaming buy. It clearly has been getting cheaper...
by fennewaldaj
Sun May 17, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1769
Views: 140609

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This is just for fun as I doubt anyone would actually go all in on SCV, but Ben Felix recently mentioned that using 4% withdrawals in 30 year periods going back to 1926, 70% US SCV with 30% 5 year treasuries had no failures. It also has a thrilling max drawdown of 77%. This was an aside in a discus...
by fennewaldaj
Sun May 17, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1769
Views: 140609

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Hypothesis: The Small Cap Value stocks are going to be dead until the US Economy stops being a laggard. The US MegaCap stocks don't face this issue due to their global revenue sources. If I were a person making a bet on this category I would switch to countries with better economic prospects. EM Sm...
by fennewaldaj
Fri May 15, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which one is better EM bonds or EM equities or both?
Replies: 41
Views: 1772

Re: Which one is better EM bonds or EM equities or both?

I have both. Total portfolio is 8% EM bonds (both local and USD) and 14% EM equities.
by fennewaldaj
Fri May 15, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1769
Views: 140609

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

RZV is deep value microcap, maximally loaded with small and value factors and it has paid the price for that faith. I wonder how soon after one of RZV's loser stocks starts to do well that they sell it because it is not small enough or valuey enough? Seems like in order to profit off small value th...
by fennewaldaj
Fri May 15, 2020 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63807

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

csantiago wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 4:00 am

First, the virus doesn’t care how old you are. The young and the old are dying.
This is not true though. Young and old are dying but not at remotely the same rate. For example in NYC the death rate for 75+ was 73x higher than for 18-45.
by fennewaldaj
Sun May 03, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41893

Re: Why international?

Karsten from ERN created the chart below. https://i2.wp.com/earlyretirementnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/diversification-chart02.png?resize=863%2C627&ssl=1 https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/03/04/the-yield-illusion-follow-up-swr-series-part-30/ I just don't find this line of argument convinc...
by fennewaldaj
Sat May 02, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41893

Re: Why international?

Because I can no longer bring myself to buy ex-us equities on their own, I try to buy VT in equal amounts to VTSAX. I do not have a specific ex-us allocation in mind, but I'm targeting ~30% VT and at least 50% in VTSAX at all times. (Right now the split is 90VTSAX/10VT.) I find it impossibly diffic...
by fennewaldaj
Sat May 02, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41893

Re: Why international?

Currency doesn't account for the underperformance. There's a great interview done by Christine Benz from pre-crash where she talked to an analyst that deconstructed the performance and broke out the currency effect, the sector effect (i.e. US has more tech), the P/E expansion effect, and none of th...
by fennewaldaj
Sat May 02, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19255
Views: 2672703

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Glad to see we finally have a consensus around here! So that settles it. The market is going down. Right? A little more bad news and maybe we can get back to our regularly scheduled market crash. Bear market rally has probably topped out, Judging by the futures looks like selling at the end of Apri...
by fennewaldaj
Fri May 01, 2020 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12900

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I guess we'll see. I don't share your conviction the recent lows will be 'absolutely obliterated'. I do believe a vaccine is either in the making or will be soon - within 12 months. I'm basically a 'buy and hold' person - so, in either case (acceleration or obliteration), I'll be along for the ride...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12900

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

The only extra little bit of prediction I'm willing to make is that we haven't seen a drop yet that comes anywhere close to the full impact this health crisis — and the associated long-term lifestyle and employment changes — will eventually have on the market. Nowhere close. I am of the opinion the...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12900

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

The only extra little bit of prediction I'm willing to make is that we haven't seen a drop yet that comes anywhere close to the full impact this health crisis — and the associated long-term lifestyle and employment changes — will eventually have on the market. Nowhere close. I am of the opinion the...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain how negative interest rates work
Replies: 24
Views: 1990

Re: Explain how negative interest rates work

Why would anyone keep money in a bond fund or savings account that was charging you interest to hold your money? Other than I guess anyone with massive holdings that has no place else to put it. Where else are you going to put it? The stock market....under a mattress....a safe Think about this for ...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32591

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

What's the alternative to US stocks? So long as they keep getting bid up, it's the only place to be. I foresee a banana skin in terms of economic outlook, but not so much in terms of alternatives to US megacap / tech. Bonds? Energy stocks? Emerging markets? The idea is, it's not so much enthusiasm,...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 13359

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

current yield on Switzerland's 50-year bond: -0.281% Interest rates here in the US can fall further. A lot further. I own long-term US treasuries because they are great at zigging when my stocks are zagging. I don't think I'm crazy. They've performed beautifully. They certainly could. But some sort...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does no one talk about mid cap tilt?
Replies: 16
Views: 1483

Re: Why does no one talk about mid cap tilt?

If you want an answer as to "why no one talks about it," I would guess that it is because to me, the word "tilt" is associated with the Fama and French studies, with factor investing, and with Dimensional (DFA) funds in particular. The Fama and French studies found a "size factor," but AFAIK nobody...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on a S&P 600 recovery
Replies: 16
Views: 2363

Re: Thoughts on a S&P 600 recovery

I hear you — but one needs to take a long-term perspective on these small cap indexes. Not sure if this applies this time around as it's such a different systemic shock. I was listening to Kevin O'Leary and he was saying that it is an absolute disaster for Small Businesses, most of them are going t...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31965

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Well, that’s why Jack Bogle said to save more, right? I don't want to work until I'm 80 so that a 1% withdrawal rate is good enough ..... There’s not much else we can do. Either make a lot of money and live like a pauper or shake your fist at the federal reserve for setting interest rates on govern...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QQQ as a core holding
Replies: 23
Views: 1957

Re: QQQ as a core holding

I think the current market environment is bifurcated. This was my judgement 3 weeks ago and I'll stand by it. Some industries will take maximum pain, possibly even see waves of bankruptcies, while others that were leading the market pre-crash are still well positioned now, with strong cash balances...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 13359

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

Interest rate has nowhere to go but DOWN in the near future (~10 years) in my opinion. Some other parts of the world are already in the negative interest rate regime, and the US will follow. I can't imagine the FED dare to raise the interest in the current environment, because the interest payments...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31965

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

I believe the most realistic thing to plan for is living off interest or dividends in retirement with a margin of safety included for when business goes bad in a recession. Living off dividends and interest is equivalent to saying you will take a 2%/2.5% withdrawal rate. Which you can do with a tot...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16615

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

Maybe I am weird but I feel more comfortable buying small value now than total market (and I have felt that way the whole 2 year period it has been massively under performing)
by fennewaldaj
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16615

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

Not sure I follow... can you show me a time in history where holding VBR instead of VIOV would've dramatically changed the outcome? VBR using the CRSP index hasn't been around very long. Mid value and small value aren't really that different. Its not like these mid caps are ruining the portfolio.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31965

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Since most bogleheads have significant social security this is not that big of an issue right? Just pick a variable withdrawal method and be prepared to cut back if you have to. As was pointed out by others how much not living should you do to protect from low probability events.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FWIW, 52% Expect U-Shaped Recovery
Replies: 25
Views: 2120

Re: FWIW, 52% Expect U-Shaped Recovery

However the spending will be reallocated to other parts of the economy. More home cinema etc. The economic pie might grow but corporate earnings could be less under the new way the pie is sliced. Probably bad for stocks but lower corporate earnings as a % of gdp would be a good thing not a bad thin...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FWIW, 52% Expect U-Shaped Recovery
Replies: 25
Views: 2120

Re: FWIW, 52% Expect U-Shaped Recovery

What is an L shaped recovery? There doesn't seem to be an actual recovery in that letter. Drops down and moves sideways. So no recovery. I personally think this is what will happen. I thought we were in a bubble that was going to pop, and now it has. I can see that for the stock market. The actual ...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FWIW, 52% Expect U-Shaped Recovery
Replies: 25
Views: 2120

Re: FWIW, 52% Expect U-Shaped Recovery

What is an L shaped recovery? There doesn't seem to be an actual recovery in that letter.
by fennewaldaj
Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3987
Views: 303073

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The most up-to-date estimate by the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine suspects the death rate is a flu-like 0.1% to 0.39%. I couldn't find that claim on the website of the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine. I can't either actually. I did read something from them last week that said ...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3987
Views: 303073

Re: Coronavirus and the market

What happens to the market in an environment where a contagious disease that seems to have a 10% mortality rate left unchecked .... Source? 10% is what you’re seeing in Italy, France, Spain and other countries that didn’t see this coming. Countries that implemented social distancing much earlier ar...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8225

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

You don’t think the market knows all this? Logic says the market should know all this of course. But I just find the magnitude of the drop so far (20-ish percent) doesn't seem sufficiently large to account for a real-world, global, shock of this severity.... it's only retraced to levels of a couple...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8225

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

Prahasaurus wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:50 am

And just wait until Brazil or India take off...
Isn't the baseline assessment already they will not be able to control it and it will do what it will do?
by fennewaldaj
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8225

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

You don’t think the market knows all this? Logic says the market should know all this of course. But I just find the magnitude of the drop so far (20-ish percent) doesn't seem sufficiently large to account for a real-world, global, shock of this severity.... it's only retraced to levels of a couple...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8225

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

Virus cases are starting to level off. Look at the graphs at bottom on US page https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ What does that tell us about the next year or two? South Korea and China have experienced second waves. South Korea has not seen a second wave. They had exponential g...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8225

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

CULater wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:29 pm
All the news is bad and the futures are zooming upward. Is it any wonder that people think the stock market is an insane asylum?
Of course the stock market dropped 20%ish while people on main street were still pretty complacent about all this.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 541874

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Can anyone fathom why? Seriously... To the extent this is at all related to stock prices, apparently NY state reported a 10% drop today in COVID-19 deaths vs Saturday, and some are interpreting it as a peak. I don't think this is actually the peak deaths, though. And the deaths are escalating in a ...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3987
Views: 303073

Re: Coronavirus and the market

[ Not clear to me why the drawdown should be less than 2009.... and a decent case to be made that it should be a deeper one. I think that year equities were pricing in some chance of a complete implosion of the financial system. This time they are pricing in a very sharp recession but not a complet...