Search found 739 matches

by fennewaldaj
Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: WisdomTree DLS has P/CF of 9.61. Is that low enough for value??
Replies: 7
Views: 566

Re: WisdomTree DLS has P/CF of 9.61. Is that low enough for value??

Is the number you saw price to free cash flow maybe?
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

fyi, there is clearly no risk story for MOM, low vol, profitability and quality. I don't agree with Larry that there is "clearly" no risk story for these factors. My view is that the risks associated with some of the other factors are somewhat more obvious and maybe better documented, but IMHO ther...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?
Replies: 14
Views: 899

Re: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?

As was stated above I would expect it to help you a bit if returns were more or less the same. I ran a test for the last 15 years where returns were very close to the same. It did help but only a tiny bit (~0.06%). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=200...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 73
Views: 6298

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

I'll never say never. If deflation is say -5%, a government backed -1% might seem OK. But as an individual, I hope I'll always have cash as an option. Some businesses might not have that option. Yep, that's the key. A relatively small sum can be kept in cash. One million fits in a carry-on. Interes...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 8060

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

I would never put 100% of my stocks in Small Value. My belief is that you can't ignore the Large Cap stocks. Not an advocate of extreme tilts. Yeah I don't think I could ever go there either. I actually only have 3/8 of my US stocks in large caps but I really can't wrap my head around not owning th...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%. This cannot repeat starting from today's rates. It most certainly can repeat. I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen. Are you saying rates can go down to negative 13%? Or just that the relative decline ...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications
Replies: 18
Views: 1847

Re: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications

I like both the S+P 400 and 600 and have positions in both. :D
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 114
Views: 13220

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Isn't it not quite right to compare the ratio of prices between large growth and small value? Small value has higher dividends than large growth generally so the same total return equals less etf share price appreciation. The prices I use are adjusted for dividend. And my data is accurate. Sorry if...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation
Replies: 84
Views: 3409

Re: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation

Likewise, there is a group of individual investors who day trade ETFs instead of or in addition to individual stocks, futures, or options. I don't think that ETFs have increased the size of this group (if anything, I'd guess that the additional market efficiency provided by ETFs have probably reduc...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VMNVX [Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund]
Replies: 13
Views: 1472

Re: 100% VMNVX [Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund]

I probably wouldn't go 100% VMNVX but something like 40% VT 40% VMNVX 20% bond fund of your choice seems very reasonable.
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 114
Views: 13220

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

A new low on a weekly basis on the Small Cap Value (IJS) / Large Growth (VUG) ratio. The prediction is not looking good. A few notes: 1. For this type of stuff I like to use the most recent data. 15 years seems sensible. The world is a dynamic place and asset pricing reflects that. 2. I also prefer...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 27091

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

The very notion that any American household needs a minimum of $5 million to retire before age 65 is beyond ludicrous, even for those with a low risk tolerance. $5M lets you put aside $1M for LTC and other disasters, and spend $120K/yr at 3% from the other $4M. Doesn't seem all that ludicrous in an...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 27091

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

The very notion that any American household needs a minimum of $5 million to retire before age 65 is beyond ludicrous, even for those with a low risk tolerance. $5M lets you put aside $1M for LTC and other disasters, and spend $120K/yr at 3% from the other $4M. Doesn't seem all that ludicrous in an...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 27091

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

The very notion that any American household needs a minimum of $5 million to retire before age 65 is beyond ludicrous, even for those with a low risk tolerance. $5M lets you put aside $1M for LTC and other disasters, and spend $120K/yr at 3% from the other $4M. Doesn't seem all that ludicrous in an...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: my mom is a "financial advisor"
Replies: 66
Views: 7167

Re: my mom is a "financial advisor"

Edited to add: I think a 5.75 percent load, in this day and age is insane... yes insane. There is no way I would consider investing in a mutual fund that is going to cost me almost six percent from the get-go. eh i dunno. Some people can't/won't save without some sort of financial adviser and have ...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will your investments be enough to cover ALF/misc.medical costs/etc.so there is no burden to your children?
Replies: 89
Views: 4373

Re: Will your investments be enough to cover ALF/misc.medical costs/etc.so there is no burden to your children?

At least in my state (Missouri) ~1/2 of assisted living facilities will take medicaid if you run out of money. Basically all of your social security and pensions go to paying the cost medicaid pays a bit for medical care (~300-500 a month). They usually require you to be able to self pay for some le...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I compared small value to total stock market in portfolio visualizer and here is what I got: Year CAGR 1974-1979 +15.1% 1979-1984 +11.0% 1984-1989 +0.7% 1989-1994 -2.10% 1994-1999 -8.20% 1999-2004 +10.6% 2004-2009 -1.50% 2009-2014 0.90% 2014-2019 -3.00% I couldn't get earlier data from portfolio vi...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

This analogy of SCV premium to the ERP IMO is misleading due to the fact that the SCV premium can be arbitraged & has been in the past & the ERP is not arbitraged due to its pure risk basis. We do not know what portion of the SCV premium is due to mispricing or risk. As the market becomes more effi...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I guess my point is that the guesses are NOT well-informed or educated. They are still random shots in the dark. I guess you are making a much stronger point than I thought you were. I don't think we can be 100% confident in our predictions (or even 90%) but random shots in the dark seems like a pr...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

That's my problem with economic statistics. The math is correct. But it still doesn't let you predict the future with any accuracy. To be honest, I think the problem is that you think that what I wrote was a prediction. If I have a fair coin, observing 50% probability of "heads" on the next flip of...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

That's why the scientific method was created - so that what is right or wrong is more than ever-changing opinions and rationalizations for why ones own position is correct no matter what the results. There is too much contradiction between stating we can't look at data within 10 or 20 or 30 years a...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: WisdomTree DLS & DGS for International Small Cap Value tilt?
Replies: 12
Views: 906

Re: WisdomTree DLS & DGS for International Small Cap Value tilt?

Are WisdomTree DLS & DGS good choices to achieve an International Small Cap Value tilt? I know they pay dividend, that's not an issue for me. I know their TER is relatively high but the performance seems to make up for it. I've read Paul Merriman thinks their good choices for SCV. What are your tho...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Expands Their Index Fund Lineup
Replies: 61
Views: 6613

Re: Fidelity Expands Their Index Fund Lineup

Yeah, the language we have seen so far confirms BrokerageLink (guessing they would have to - current plan has a Schwab brokerage window). Only question I had is the plan summary doc doesn't explicitly list ETFs as available in BL (MFs, stocks, some other things are mentioned). If Fido hadn't added ...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 27091

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

I think the only thing this survey from schwab shows is that they have an unrepresentative sample.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 17868

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

keep posting stuff like that and you might actually explode someone's brain. i feel like its taken as a given these days that US outperforms because it just does. As I pointed out in another thread, this study is misleading because it ignores the fact that these 3 portfolios would have a different ...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 17868

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

keep posting stuff like that and you might actually explode someone's brain. i feel like its taken as a given these days that US outperforms because it just does. As I pointed out in another thread, this study is misleading because it ignores the fact that these 3 portfolios would have a different ...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 17868

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

Which is precisely why global diversification in bonds is so important. Or is it? I am globally diversified in bonds too (though admittedly not even close to market weight in developed bonds and over market weight in EM bonds). I agree the logic still holds though but I think the lower volatility a...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 17868

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

For those in the "diversification is my nirvana" camp, are you global market cap weighted in bitcoin, gold, Venezuela bonds, commodities, etc.? If not, why not? I've asked a similar question of others before, and the answer is usually "I'm only interested in ownership in publicly traded companies."...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 17868

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

It is not impossible that China will move eventually from its current system of state capitalism/private equity to a free-market system relying on a properly-regulated public stock market, but do you have the time to wait for something like that to happen (if it ever does), and manifest itself in e...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 17868

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

For those in the "diversification is my nirvana" camp, are you global market cap weighted in bitcoin, gold, Venezuela bonds, commodities, etc.? If not, why not? I've asked a similar question of others before, and the answer is usually "I'm only interested in ownership in publicly traded companies."...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund
Replies: 60
Views: 5528

Re: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund

The issue is that only the cheapest 5% of stocks outperform over the long term. The cheapest 6% to 10% match the market (Carlisle, Deep Value 2014). So a multifactor fund which simultaneously buys the cheapest 30% of stocks and then the 30% of some other factor..... you may as well just buy a regul...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund
Replies: 60
Views: 5528

Re: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund

My idea of multi factor would be a fund that selects the cheapest 5% of stocks, has sector constraints, and throws out the 20% of the universe with the worst 6mo price momentum. Whether that's practical or not I don't know. I don't know if there are any funds of any sort that go as far as the cheap...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Morningstar Overhauls Influential Rating System"
Replies: 8
Views: 1099

Re: "Morningstar Overhauls Influential Rating System"

Here is the article I referenced https://www.morningstar.com/articles/933594/how-morningstars-fund-ratings-have-performed.html Its also notable that their gold and silver medalist did well vs the category average but less well vs the index. Still might have some value for picking between active fund...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Morningstar Overhauls Influential Rating System"
Replies: 8
Views: 1099

Re: "Morningstar Overhauls Influential Rating System"

They ran an analysis a month or so a go that showed some small predictive power in their gold and silver rated funds I believe. This is not super surprising as there gold and silver funds are heavily populated with index funds and low cost active funds.
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value vs Multifactor
Replies: 58
Views: 4762

Re: Small Value vs Multifactor

One thing I have been thinking about lately is how value has had poor relative performance twice in the last 30 years but that timing of the poor relative performance was good not bad. That is value underperformed in the late 90s and this decade but there has still been good absolute performance of ...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone else worried about tech becoming too big/overvalued?
Replies: 54
Views: 4212

Re: Is anyone else worried about tech becoming too big/overvalued?

When you see new startups leaving electric scooters lying around just anywhere, it starts to look an awful lot like a bubble to me. And Uber still loses money on each and every ride, self-driving cars are orders of magnitude harder than people want to believe, people think the blockchain will bring...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity (Three Fund) vs. Return (Slightly more complex):
Replies: 45
Views: 3139

Re: Simplicity (Three Fund) vs. Return (Slightly more complex):

My portfolio has a lot of funds(~45) at the moment. This is partially because I have a merriman style sliced portfolio but also due to having a bunch of different accounts and ending up using multiple funds for the same allocation (like small cap value). I also ended up with all three share classes ...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"
Replies: 209
Views: 9956

Re: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"

Another reason could be if incumbent firms are getting disrupted faster than in the past. If this is the case, the value stocks (who have weaker barriers to entry than growth stocks) earnings would be reduced faster than in the past & thus deserve lower valuations. Packer I would think this point w...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 123
Views: 10796

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

I don't have a fun money account but if I did I would likely invest in microcaps, single country etfs (from countries that are a small part of total international), or frontier markets individual stocks.
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone tilt away from the industry they work in?
Replies: 37
Views: 1955

Re: Does anyone tilt away from the industry they work in?

I work in healthcare and my wife works for a VC funded tech start up. I tilt to small and value which tilts away from both of those industries. I also have a high international allocation (international has a lower allocation to both). I didn't do this to tilt away from our industries of employment ...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 26
Views: 2485

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

That explicitly ISV fund could get a bunch of assets quickly if it undercuts DFA. That might not be a good thing. A $250M actively managed international small value ETF will not be the same product when it gets to $5B in assets. The Top 10 holdings will be different. For the experts: How would an a...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ex-US higher value?
Replies: 11
Views: 2178

Re: Is ex-US higher value?

US has a very large tech sector compared to ExUs. you can't compare p/b. What about P/E? That's 18.9 US v 13.7 ex-US (aka international) and I believe that various measures of value (eg P/B or P/E) show similar performance. I think P/E is a better comparison. There are of course different sector we...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury Under 2%
Replies: 41
Views: 4597

Re: 10 Year Treasury Under 2%

SovereignInvestor wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:08 pm

If you look at fed fund futures..they are priced that it implies a 100% chance of July rate cut and a 28% chance the cut is 50bps.
and of course it is impossible that the chance of a rate cut is 100%.
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Freedom 100 EM etf
Replies: 1
Views: 377

Freedom 100 EM etf

I thought this was interesting. Basically a new etf that invest in the 10 most free emerging markets. This seems of interest to those that have chosen not to invest in EM for moral/fear of corruption reasons. The founder of the fund was born in China and moved to the US when she was 9. The podcast i...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term expected returns of Vanguard Factor funds vs SCV
Replies: 21
Views: 1670

Re: Long Term expected returns of Vanguard Factor funds vs SCV

Negative alpha relative to what? Haven't VFMF outperformed SLYV? Alpha is measured relative to a capital asset pricing model (I used a five-factor model with AQR factors), not on raw performance. In other words, alpha is the portion of return that is left after accounting for market beta, size, val...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 26
Views: 2485

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

Early this year ROGS (Hartford Multifactor Global SmallCap ETF) lowered its expense ratio to 0.39---and that's for global small, value, quality. If Hartford can do global multifactor for under 0.4, then American Century can probably do it also---if they choose to. On on hand, the Avantis webpage ex...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 26
Views: 2485

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

jhfenton wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:38 pm

I'm also skeptical that the funds will be truly low-cost, given their sponsor.
my baseline expectation is that they will be similar in cost to the DFA funds they are similar too. So cheaper than active but not Vanguard cheap. The DFA international small cap value fund ER is 0.68
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Advertising Mutual Fund to ETF Conversion
Replies: 128
Views: 8721

Re: Vanguard Advertising Mutual Fund to ETF Conversion

I ended up with both the etf and admiral classes of FTSE all world ex US small cap and emerging markets. I keep meaning to call to convert but I hate calling people so I keep putting it off.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 26
Views: 2485

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

I am excited about the international small cap value fund as the only real options now are fundamental (RAFI) indexes or dividend weighted funds. The same is true of EM value so may be they will launch something in that space too.
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which Bond Fund to Choose in 401k?
Replies: 17
Views: 1460

Re: Which Bond Fund to Choose in 401k?

Second, if you have any other traditional IRA other than SWAGX, please roll that money into your 401k. Always keep an option for doing backdoor Roth; having a traditional IRA anywhere at any custodian, interferes with doing backdoor Roth. For many the backdoor Roth is not a thing they need to worry...