Search found 390 matches

by fennewaldaj
Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ?Admiral share availability in other brokerages?[Yes, after a few weeks they are now appearing at other brokerages.]
Replies: 29
Views: 2889

Re: ?Admiral share availability in other brokerages?[Yes, after a few weeks they are now appearing at other brokerages.]

I am still curious what is going to happen to the 2 vanguard investor share funds I have in my fidelity 403b/401a/457 brokerage link. Like will I have to pay the transaction fee again to switch them? Will I be able to add money to my existing position?
by fennewaldaj
Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1566
Views: 218521

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

relevant difference between QSPIX, stocks, and bonds is that the latter two have histories going back more than a century. So far, it simply has not come close to meeting its stated expectations (i.e. stock-like returns with half the volatility). It might be a worthwhile asset class going forward, ...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in Vanguard funds via Fidelity
Replies: 23
Views: 4063

Re: Investing in Vanguard funds via Fidelity

Admiral shares can now be held at Fidelity. There is still a $75 fee to purchase new shares, but there is no charge to redeem. For those in the decumulation phase, holding these funds at Fidelity could be an option. And if you enroll in the automatic investments, you can invest up to monthly and as...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 62
Views: 3197

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

I do agree with Nisiprius (and Allan Roth) that correlation numbers are way overrated. The simple fact that it totally ignores amplitude should be a screaming warning, unfortunately this is all too often forgotten. Yeah the whole ignoring amplitude thing makes them of limited usefulness to me. Is t...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 75
Views: 7744

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

The only exception I would make is for Fallen Angel bonds. The investment grade/junk bond discontinuity has been an exploitable anomaly, and I don't see any evidence that has changed. I thought about one of the fallen angel etfs for my junk bonds but went with the vanguard fund figuring that they o...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 62
Views: 3197

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

If total bond funds didn't hold long-term Treasuries, though, their correlation with stocks would be noticeably higher though. Long-term treasuries are the piece of total bond funds that is providing much of what little diversification a total bond fund offers. I don't think this is true. One can e...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 62
Views: 3197

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:00 pm

2. There has never been a year when both assets delivered negative returns.
Interestingly though this year has a pretty high chance of that happening.
by fennewaldaj
Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 75
Views: 7744

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

There is a near 4% spread with Treasury, perhaps the market is pricing for higher defaults or downgrades? Since we know 4% is a lot of spread in credit markets, there can be no free lunches here. 4% is on the lower end for junk bond spreads. Here is the STL feds data chart https://fred.stlouisfed.o...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3524

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

Equities PE10 at 29+. Bond market facing headwinds due to rising interest rates. Real estate arguably in a housing bubble. I realize nobody knows nothin'. But in terms of pricing, is there any market that is expected to do better than flat over the next decade? Forward P/E on the U.S. stock market ...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 379
Views: 37065

Re: What types of jobs do Bogleheads have?

Since college I have had the following jobs

Naval Reactors Engineer
Professional Poker Player (online)
Analytical Chemist
Pharmacy Intern (while going to pharmacy school)
Pharmacist
by fennewaldaj
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why some larger stocks are classified as mid-cap?
Replies: 4
Views: 460

Re: Why some larger stocks are classified as mid-cap?

Its because the Large cap index Vanguard uses combines the mega cap and mid cap index. The Mega cap index is the top 70% of the market and the mid cap is 70%-85%.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 176
Views: 13121

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

Wife and I both worked for the US government at the time so no real threat of layoff. Due to shear laziness we were both 100% G fund in my TSP (that was the default investment). Finally got around to actually owning stock in 2011. I did have some general skepticism of stock investing at the time due...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too Much Savings Regret
Replies: 112
Views: 16848

Re: Too Much Savings Regret

Exactly. As a 32 year old this possibility haunts me to no end. Indeed. Because you can't get those years back. Ever. I don’t remember who said it but this expression sums it up best: “money is a renewable resource; time is not.” The advantage of having a high income is you get to live for today an...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4692

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]

Even if we assume no repeat of the 1989-90 situation, arrest of Michael Milliken and bankruptcy of Drexel Burnham Lambert, the volatility of these things is still impressive. I was somewhat surprised by this but the 1989-1990 situation looks like a non event when plotted in portfolio visualizer htt...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Best Investment Science Books
Replies: 9
Views: 848

Re: Larry Swedroe: Best Investment Science Books

I’ve read a few of the books, so thought I’d make some comments: Expected Returns: dry, high end, academic. In the past I’ve read that Larry thinks it’s one of the very best books. I’ve tried to start it a few times, and never get too deep into it. I use it as a reference that I pull off the shelf ...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4692

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]

Even if we assume no repeat of the 1989-90 situation, arrest of Michael Milliken and bankruptcy of Drexel Burnham Lambert, the volatility of these things is still impressive. I was somewhat surprised by this but the 1989-1990 situation looks like a non event when plotted in portfolio visualizer htt...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too Much Savings Regret
Replies: 112
Views: 16848

Re: Too Much Savings Regret

Exactly. As a 32 year old this possibility haunts me to no end. Indeed. Because you can't get those years back. Ever. I don’t remember who said it but this expression sums it up best: “money is a renewable resource; time is not.” The advantage of having a high income is you get to live for today an...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8151

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

I suppose there is one more group of us bond investors that hold things such as high yield corporate and EM bonds. Not sure how exactly to categorize this group. Orthogonal risk I don't have Anti Illmanen's books on asset allocation to hand but I think of them as the bible for such things. I read A...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Roth vs. Traditional question
Replies: 29
Views: 1656

Re: Another Roth vs. Traditional question

- the tax savings could be spent I think for a large part of the non boglehead population this is what is happening. Like a person decides to save say $300 a month. They will be fairly likely to save that dollar amount in either account. In that case the Roth is clearly better because they have tri...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Roth vs. Traditional question
Replies: 29
Views: 1656

Re: Another Roth vs. Traditional question

If you like Roth, you can contribute to Roth IRAs up to 13K. Roth 401K is the wrong answer. KlangFool Just curious does your opinion change for people that have 403bs and 457s. Two Roth IRA plus two 401ks gives you ~24% Roth. For a couple where one party has a 457 and a 403b and the other has a 401...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8605
Views: 1678319

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:28 am
Foreign stock futures are down almost 2%, US stocks down .7%.
The smart money is betting on US.
I think part of that is they are just catching up with the declines the US market made Friday after they were already closed.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is buying SCV, EM, Intl SC
Replies: 41
Views: 2644

Re: Who is buying SCV, EM, Intl SC

My December purchase in my IRA will be mostly SCV. I am actually overweight in international at the moment. I did a re-balance in September when we left our financial adviser. Since then international has done somewhat better than domestic so I am now overweight.
by fennewaldaj
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 213
Views: 31766

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I wonder what kind of success they would want for these before they considered adding international funds set up in the same way. One would almost think that would be more economical as the same people could likely run all of them.
by fennewaldaj
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8151

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

The answer to this question really depends on the answer to the question of why you even want bonds in your portfolio. Two "risk parity" constructions are often discussed here: a) The "bonds are for safety" approach. For these investors, they are seeking returns from domestic and international stoc...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 65
Views: 3844

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

I don't find the idea that TIPS offer a 1/4 or 1/2% in extra interest from illiquidity to be credible. TIPS trade with quite narrow spreads (< 20 bps). More than nominals, but much less than brokered CDs. Brokered CDs tend to offer about .6% or so of extra interest over Treasuries, but spreads for ...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4045

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

The answer is “extremely”. If you can demonstrate that empirically with a high degree of precision, you'll probably get the Nobel prize. FWIW, a recent recipient of the Nobel prize in economics has serious doubts about how valid the EMH actually is. Arriving at that conclusion requires misinterpret...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4045

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

Maybe this, going back to 1900? 6.4% annualized for US, 4.3% annualized for World ex-US ("international.") It can't all be the FAANGs. Don't let the chart scaling fool you, returns for international stocks were so much less than US that the US chart goes to $10,000 and the World ex-US chart only go...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4045

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

Setting aside the last 10 years: 1. UK looks to be a disaster for decades because of Brexit. 2. Continental Europe: see above for cascading effects. 3. Japan: I’d love to hear an argument for future optimism. That’s nearly 60% of ex-US. To paraphrase Dirty Harry re:Europe + Japan: Do you feel lucky...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 65
Views: 3844

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

Point being, regarding TIPS. It's possible (likely?) that it is a solution to a non-existent problem. I wouldn't spend a whole lot on insurance for a non-existent problem. Especially if there is also a liquidity penalty that goes along with the insurance premium. But that conclusion is partly based...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums
Replies: 96
Views: 6942

Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:21 pm
Magic the Gathering cards
FWIW many old magic the gathering cards are worth far more than they were in the initial mid 90s boom. LIke 20x.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8605
Views: 1678319

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

In other valuation news the trailing PEs of my emerging market value holdings have gotten very low.
DGS trailing PE - 8.24
FNDE trailing PE - 10.23
by fennewaldaj
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8605
Views: 1678319

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

For long term buy and hold bogleheads, daily fluctuation should not scare us away from staying our course and our strategy. I admit. I, myself, timed the market a little bit and moved large percent of my money to cash. My gut tells me PE @ 42 is just not sustainable and a correction (be it this yea...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8605
Views: 1678319

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:23 pm
Now THIS is a freefall!

Too bad I don't have any spare cash to put in the market today. Maybe the market won't recover by the time my regular 401k and HSA contributions hit next week.
Unluckily for me a lot of my auto buys went off on Monday.
by fennewaldaj
Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Weighted returns better for lower volatility assets
Replies: 2
Views: 274

Re: Money Weighted returns better for lower volatility assets

Isn't this just because SCV and EM had better returns at the beginning of the period than the end?
by fennewaldaj
Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you get a year end bonus?
Replies: 78
Views: 5159

Re: Do you get a year end bonus?

I get a $50 gift card to some restaurants a $25 movie gift card and a free meal. I think that is about as good as it gets for a university hospital. My wife got a 2k bonus a couple years ago.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the lowest 'safe' emergency fund we should have?
Replies: 40
Views: 3859

Re: What is the lowest 'safe' emergency fund we should have?

<< Both have high earning jobs, and very employable with skills that would likely be needed even in a recession/good job security and physically healthy.>> How would you know? How many recession have you survived? Have you ever been unemployed? If the recession is bad enough, the whole country is i...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the lowest 'safe' emergency fund we should have?
Replies: 40
Views: 3859

Re: What is the lowest 'safe' emergency fund we should have?

<< Both have high earning jobs, and very employable with skills that would likely be needed even in a recession/good job security and physically healthy.>> How would you know? How many recession have you survived? Have you ever been unemployed? If the recession is bad enough, the whole country is i...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4692

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

If that is true, then let me take a brief shot at the lessons learned here. Please correct / add as appropriate. The 5-year rolling return is perhaps the more accurate measure, as it is close to the fund's (current) duration of 4.4 years. The 1.5% delta between SEC yield and total return over 20 5-...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too Much Savings Regret
Replies: 112
Views: 16848

Re: Too Much Savings Regret

IMO, there's a threshold of earnings where these high savings rates are very doable by just living a modest middle class life (complete with a modest home, couple vacations/yr and a car), the only sacrifice I make is not living an "upper middle class" life: high end car, high-end neighbourhood, vac...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4692

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

Here's a shorter version: there's no way to isolate the effect of credit losses in particular junk funds from price info the funds publish. That's because a simplifying assumption that the fund's expected return is just composed of SEC yield in interest income minus credit losses from defaults show...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5564

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

I think if one insist on having crypto as a buy and hold asset it should not be re balanced (at least not as it goes down. It would be ok to take some off the top). Its a dangerous game to re balance assets that have a realistic chance of going to zero at some point.
by fennewaldaj
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4692

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

In looking at the NAV for HYC, 0n 7/1/2008, it was 5.55. On 6/30/2018, ten years later, it was 5.70. If losses from default sales on these funds were regular and one did have to account for them in reducing return expectations, one would think they would have showed up during this 10-year window. I...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do bogleheads think of small cap value?
Replies: 37
Views: 3215

Re: What do bogleheads think of small cap value?

I'd go to the casino near my house if I were into gambling. A great read that might inform gambling on small cap value is Annie Duke's "Thinking In Bets." Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always ...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99016

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Well if you own world market cap revenue from the US is actually way less then 50%. Simplegift had apost about this somewhat recently. Yeah, depending on how you count (consumer spending vs GDP etc) the US is only about 25-30% of the world economy. https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/gl...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4979

Re: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?

One other thing I thought of. Our best data to look at is from the last 50 years or so an era of mostly declining rates. Call features should be worse for the corporate bond investor when rates are generally falling than when they are generally flat or rising.
by fennewaldaj
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo failure tolerance?
Replies: 54
Views: 3745

Re: Monte Carlo failure tolerance?

I personally have a strong preference for a flexible withdrawal method. A purely flexible withdrawal method has a 100% chance of success. The 'risk' is that your withdrawals will shrink to the point that they are inadequate to meet your needs. However, by deferring until age 70, 70% of our Social S...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do bogleheads think of small cap value?
Replies: 37
Views: 3215

Re: What do bogleheads think of small cap value?

I have been overweighting small-cap and value since 1999. As other threads have indicated, it takes patience, and you need to stay the course through periods of underperformance and outperformance. Currently, I hold all my value stocks in Vanguard Value Factor ETF (VFVA). This is 50% large-cap valu...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Future of Stock Market - Less IPO's
Replies: 5
Views: 616

Re: Future of Stock Market - Less IPO's

So it isn't really clear that the winners outnumber the losers. Yes you lose on investing in the next Facebook. But you also lose out in investing in the next Blue Apron (which currently seems to be collapsing). People tend to focus on the three or four super successes and ignore the dozens of fail...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99016

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

My conclusion : multinational companies headquartered in the US have done about 40-45% of their business overseas. To me it is completely logical that in today’s market just owning the companies in the s/p 500 will give you adequate exposure to the global economy. "Adequate" is hard word to nail do...