Search found 217 matches

by fennewaldaj
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors
Replies: 18
Views: 1177

Re: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors

I haven't really played around with this but I wonder if and approach to bonds with long term treasuries to give you pure exposure to the term risk and short term high yield/EM Bond to give relatively pure access to the credit risk premium would make sense. Something like 30$ US stock, 30% internati...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors
Replies: 18
Views: 1177

Re: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors

I've been a vocal supporter of the concept that everyone should allocate their portfolio in a manner appropriate for their time horizon, which means that long-term investors should primarily own long-term bonds and short-term investors should own short-term bonds. Forgive me for editorializing a bi...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a case for Active in fixed income?
Replies: 10
Views: 793

Re: Is there a case for Active in fixed income?

I wouldn't be surprised if active management had a benefit in fixed income if it cost the same as indexing esp in certain classes like corporate bonds high yield and emerging market debt. There are some know causes of return leakage from following indexes in these areas. For example BBB bonds downgr...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Cap Value - valuation?
Replies: 16
Views: 862

Re: US Large Cap Value - valuation?

The trailing PE for the Vanguard [Large Cap] value fund is 20.6. https://www.etf.com/VTV I wouldn't call that cheap. Let's keep in mind a two things: 1) Value stocks have not done poorly over the past decade. They have gone up. A lot. Just not as much as growth stocks have. 2) Historically value ou...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 209
Views: 16424

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

The message in those articles is that a little flexibility isn't going to do much at all for you in a poor sequence of returns. In a typical sensationalist blogging manner, these blog articles base their message on a volatile 80/20 stocks/bonds portfolio, with no accompanying Social Security, pensi...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 40
Views: 2006

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

privatefarmer wrote: It seems like they keep "fine tuning" it/throwing in new factors ie profitability/liquidity etc etc, doesn't seem as passive as I once thought... would love some input from anyone w/ more insight... It seems to me that you've got plenty of insight yourself, private farmer. Fact...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 209
Views: 16424

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

The message in those articles is that a little flexibility isn't going to do much at all for you in a poor sequence of returns. In a typical sensationalist blogging manner, these blog articles base their message on a volatile 80/20 stocks/bonds portfolio, with no accompanying Social Security, pensi...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”
Replies: 22
Views: 3555

Re: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”

I did not "tout" it as "the answer to an inflationary situation." I said that "anybody who discusses inflation risks of 'bonds' and never even mentions TIPS is dishonest, not to be trusted, and not worth reading." In real life, TIPS may or may not actually keep up with inflation after taxes, but (a...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 40
Views: 2006

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

To me DFA seems pretty similar to the low turnover high number of holdings subset of quant funds (Although somewhat less expensive). Its just the qaunt process they follow is more transparent. For example LSV funds large cap value https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/lsvex/quote.html small cap val...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Franklin Single Country ETFs, too good to be true?
Replies: 2
Views: 369

Re: Franklin Single Country ETFs, too good to be true?

Assets under management are pretty low so there is probably some closure risk. The one I looked at had only been around a year though so that is probably part of it. The only downside I see is switching paying the spreads on both products and then the franklin etfs shutting down and you having to sw...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 40
Views: 2006

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

Aren't all value funds really trading strategies? Slow motion trading strategies but still trading strategies which would be considered a form of active management. This point is made rather well in this post by the writer of the philosophical ecomomics blog and the people at O'Shoughnessey assset m...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10635

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

No, but I think Bogle and Buffet grew up in a different world. China will probably be the biggest economy in the next 10 years. India will probably surpass the US economy in the next 20 years. If certain things happen...continuing the current political trend (not saying what due to forum guidelines...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10635

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Elysium wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:03 pm


In other words, as Buffett said, do not bet against America.
I hold roughly 39% international stocks 39% US stocks 3% international bonds and 19% US bonds. I hardly consider myself "betting against america" 58% of my assets are US assets.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1732

Re: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?

Most people on this board would recommend against buying corporate bonds, I think. They carry basically the same risk as stocks. It's better to diversify your risk and buy government bonds in addition to stocks. There is definitely a big contingent that are against corporate bonds but I don't think...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10635

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Driving by looking in the rear view mirror. :D That's all we have when studying the stock market. Betting that something that didn't work in the long run in the past will suddenly work for no apparent reason in the future is not a bet that I'm comfortable with. And betting that the US will continue...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend withholding makes actual ER of Total International 0.32%?
Replies: 7
Views: 1034

Re: Dividend withholding makes actual ER of Total International 0.32%?

To me this is one of the reasonable arguments for holding less than market weight of international stocks. 0.32% is still pretty low though so I would consider it a poor argument for holding no international stock. For me this is still in the acceptable expense range and I elect to hold marketlike w...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 209
Views: 16424

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Very detailed blog post by the "Mad Fientist". Safe Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees The 4% rule is actually very safe for a 30-year retirement Was not is. The problem is figuring out how much the future will resemble the past. Note that 4% is for the WORST case scenarios. Normal times in the pas...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DGS: Own it? Opinions on it? [WisdomTree Emerging Mkts SmallCap Dividend]
Replies: 25
Views: 1695

Re: DGS: Own it? Opinions on it?

With a median market cap of $3.9B Small Cap Value Index isn't very small, nor is it very "valuey." DFA would view it as Mid Cap & rather "Growthy." None of their value funds are deep value like DFA. VIOV has a median market cap of $1.7 billion. And more importantly its SMB is 0.79. The HMB is 0.40,...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6341

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

...2. I don't think countries graduate between emerging and developed markets often enough for internal rebalancing to make a material difference... Which, of course, obviously contradicts the premise behind the phrase "emerging markets." It doesn't. Why do you think it does? The objective descript...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553408

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Simply bleeding cash. :annoyed Edit: But, refreshingly indifferent about it :beer Ditto that. :D me too. Since I have at least 14 years till I need the money and I am adding a lot every year compared to what I have currently these bond yield increases and stock drops while earnings are still good t...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6341

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Nisiprius, As you know, I’m not Larry, but I think he’d say the starting point is world market cap weighting. The US/Int split is about 50/50. EM I think makes up 20-25% of Int. This would imply a good starting point is %EM = 10-12.5% of equities. That being said, I’m sure it’s more important to st...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests
Replies: 79
Views: 13636

Re: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests

VT and BNDW is even better. Way more diversification and so so simple. VT= Vanguard Total World Equity Index BNDW=Vanguard Total World Bond Index Someone should write a book about this. No, BNDW is horrible. This seems like a very overblown statement. If someone forced you to hold BNDW instead of t...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?
Replies: 23
Views: 1718

Re: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?

Most 401(k) plans seem to think so. They tend to offer employees a limited number of broadly diversified options to select from. It would appear they are intentionally trying to prevent investors from hurting themselves too much. Of course, to protect the ignorant masses from themselves they also m...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5521

Re: Long or medium bonds

So i guess the love of the federal G fund is not warrented? I have ~1/2 my bond allocation in it (although the position is not being added too) I suppose it really functions like a supercharged money market fund and thus dilutes risk as opposed to diversifying it like long bonds. I did recently add ...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5521

Re: Long or medium bonds

Vineviz I consider you a pretty knowledgeable poster here so I'd like to hear you out on Bernstein an his belief(s) on long term bonds. I'm very limited when it comes to knowledge on bonds most of what I have read about them has been from Bernstein so I'm not incline to invest in them myself. I'm a...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart.
Replies: 52
Views: 6570

Re: [WSJ] The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart.

Invest using Vanguard Total World ETF (VT) and you won't have to micromanage your US/INT mood swings. Current US market allocation is 54.9%. But that invites the same problem with any market-cap weighted strategy, which is it ensure that you're constantly buying more of what's done well in the past...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International small cap value ETF
Replies: 54
Views: 19508

Re: International small cap value ETF

Not being completely satisfied with any of the options I have ended up with a collection of different funds for this allocation. I have schwab fundamental international small company wisdomtree international small cap dividend wisdomtree international mid cap dividend wisdomtree emerging markets sm...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International small cap value ETF
Replies: 54
Views: 19508

Re: International small cap value ETF

Not being completely satisfied with any of the options I have ended up with a collection of different funds for this allocation. I have schwab fundamental international small company wisdomtree international small cap dividend wisdomtree international mid cap dividend wisdomtree emerging markets sma...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8013

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

I think he accounts for buybacks in his estimate of EPS growth. He has 2% dividend and then '3.5% real earnings per share (EPS) growth, with 2.5% due to stock buybacks' That's pretty amazing. Almost all the growth in profits per share is because of retirement of equity NOT growth in profits. In oth...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 237
Views: 23893

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

.224 I have a few active funds dragging it up a bit as well as some of the more expensive fundamental indexes(international small cap dividend, fundamental emerging market ect)
by fennewaldaj
Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Core Funds: Small vs Mid to supplement VOO
Replies: 10
Views: 739

Re: Core Funds: Small vs Mid to supplement VOO

If you prefer to own midcaps in addition to small caps S=P 400 (IJH, MDY, or IVOO) + S+P 600 (IJR, SLY, VIOO) will combine with your S=P 500 portfolio with no overlap. If you use Vanguards main funds (VO for mid caps, VB for smallcaps) you will get some overlap as ~2/3 of VO overlaps with the bottom...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 192
Views: 26139

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I am guessing limit orders are still advisable for these funds? I just transferred assets from an adviser and will be buying ~15k vfmf and ~10k vfva later this week. I doubt you’d need it. You can expect instantaneous execution at the prevailing ask price regardless of quantity. Almost certainly. I...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 192
Views: 26139

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I am guessing limit orders are still advisable for these funds? I just transferred assets from an adviser and will be buying ~15k vfmf and ~10k vfva later this week.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 87
Views: 6024

Re: Small cap tilt

NAESX Vanguard Small Cap Index Inv NMSCX Columbia Small Cap Index Inst MASKX iShares Russell 2000 Small-Cap Idx Instl This fund has data going back to 1972 on its fact sheet. I could not find any of its ticker symbols that go back that far though https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/a...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2084

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

Better bet: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund Admiral Shares (VLGSX) I have those. But having too many may backfire. You just have to look at historical efficient frontiers. They offer less return for the same volatility (vs corporate), what it's ok if you own a high % of stocks. But if your p...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New [Vanguard] environmental, social, governance (ESG) ETFs
Replies: 25
Views: 1865

Re: New [Vanguard] environmental, social, governance (ESG) ETFs

I have no interest in these funds because even if I was worried about ESG concerns in my investing I don't really agree with what they consider good and bad. It seem like custom indexes might eventually be a thing. Then you can exclude companies and industries you personally have a problem with inst...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?
Replies: 16
Views: 1503

Re: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?

Right now, the reward just isn't there. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB I read that all the time on this board. Corporate bonds are not worth the risk, and "take risk on the equity side" If that is true, wouldn't the lack of demand cause the price of corporate bonds to drop ( ie yie...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?
Replies: 16
Views: 1503

Re: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?

Its worth noting that if you hold an investment grade bond fund your BBB bonds aren't likely to fail they are likely to get downgraded and sold. Its my understanding that even Vanguards high yield fund rarely keeps bonds until they actually default.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend Following failure
Replies: 12
Views: 1504

Re: Trend Following failure

Does this look like a disaster to you? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%2F16%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS
Replies: 28
Views: 2272

Re: Four International ETFs that are better diversifiers than VXUS

I am all for the overweighting small caps idea and I do both domestically and internationally (my portpolio is in the ~50% large 50% small/mid both places) I just can't get on board with the idea of not owning such an important segment of the equity markets at all. So not owning large cap internatio...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Exposures for MSCI Value Momentum Blend Indexes
Replies: 2
Views: 265

Re: Factor Exposures for MSCI Value Momentum Blend Indexes

The international ones look moderately interesting due to lack of as many other compelling options in that space.
by fennewaldaj
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you rollover all of your previous 401ks?
Replies: 33
Views: 2288

Re: Do you rollover all of your previous 401ks?

No rolling. 401k has lower ER. I don't understand this statement - the OP could roll to a new IRA at Fidelity and use the "$0" ER funds. It doesn't get any lower than that. I also don't understand your statement about not being able to rebalance. Rebalancing in an IRA is just as easy as in a 401K. ...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4541

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

Great, now how do I implement this without paying a DFA advisor? 50.00% Vanguard US Multifactor ETF (VFMF) 25.00% Invesco FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets ETF (PXH) 25.00% iShares Edge MSCI Mltfct Intl SmCp ETF (ISCF) Any particular reason you would choose the invesco fund over schwabs fund (fnde) seems ...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4541

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

Great, now how do I implement this without paying a DFA advisor? 50.00% Vanguard US Multifactor ETF (VFMF) 25.00% Invesco FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets ETF (PXH) 25.00% iShares Edge MSCI Mltfct Intl SmCp ETF (ISCF) Any particular reason you would choose the invesco fund over schwabs fund (fnde) seems ...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malaysian stocks/investing in Malaysia
Replies: 11
Views: 835

Re: Malaysian stocks/investing in Malaysia

There is a ishares etf. EWM
by fennewaldaj
Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Books
Replies: 47
Views: 3453

Re: Investment Books

I just finished reading whole lot of books. Mostly I used the library but I did buy some that they did not have at the library. I prefer paper for non fiction in general so what I bought was in paper. I do plan to periodically buy things that look like they might be useful but that gets to be a smal...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?
Replies: 61
Views: 3705

Re: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?

I think DIrexian now has 1.25x leveraged etfs that might work for long term investing. I have not looked into the detials as it is not something i plan to use
by fennewaldaj
Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expense ratios and fees - Fidelity and flip flopping advice
Replies: 61
Views: 4377

Re: Expense ratios and fees - Fidelity and flip flopping advice

The issue of tax efficiency of Vanguard funds vs others (index funds) is way overblown and at best misunderstood. It is not too hard to look at a funds history and do the calculation for yourself. What people often ignore is that capital gain or dividend distribution you pay tax on now but if reinv...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New WisdomTree international multi factor ETFs (EMMF and DWMF)
Replies: 12
Views: 950

Re: New WisdomTree international multi factor ETFs (EMMF and DWMF)

If I understand their PDF, the factors only account for 50% of the weighting. The other 50% is low-volatility. That's....A bis disappointing. You get 12% value, 12% quality, 12% momentum, 12% correlation, and 50% low volatility. I wouldn't want that much (or any) low-vol/BAB factor in my portfolio ...