Search found 782 matches

by fennewaldaj
Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 337
Views: 38736

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I originally put these stats in the thread about the new Avantis funds, but I'll reproduce here (and add DLS): AVDV vs ISCF vs DLS Price/Earnings 10.82/12.43/12.03 Price/Book 1.00/1.29/1.10 Price/Sales 0.54/0.72/0.59 Price/Cash Flow 4.34/5.73/5.59 Dividend Yield % 4.29/3.42/4.90 Long-Term Earnings ...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2126655

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

How long will you sit on the sidelines for a measly 10% that may never come? not on the sidelines at all, I have a 84/16 portfolio but will go more aggressive to a 95/5 if I get an opportunity. If the opportunity does not come then I am fine with my current asset allocation. I am looking to get out...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?
Replies: 21
Views: 1937

Re: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?

It is unclear to me from reading this if they mean the bottom 30% by count or by market cap. Those are two very different things.
by fennewaldaj
Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1904
Views: 198651

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

VFVA soared today :)
by fennewaldaj
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think about Pakistani bond
Replies: 55
Views: 4999

Re: Help me think about Pakistani bond

There is an argument that EM currencies should appreciate towards purchasing power parity. Take Turkey for example. The currency is pretty week due to political uncertain, high inflation,ect. But Turkeys GDP per capita is ~10k in USD dollar terms vs ~30k in PPP terms. So in a sense the currency is ...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think about Pakistani bond
Replies: 55
Views: 4999

Re: Help me think about Pakistani bond

There is an argument that EM currencies should appreciate towards purchasing power parity. Take Turkey for example. The currency is pretty week due to political uncertain, high inflation,ect. But Turkeys GDP per capita is ~10k in USD dollar terms vs ~30k in PPP terms. So in a sense the currency is ...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think about Pakistani bond
Replies: 55
Views: 4999

Re: Help me think about Pakistani bond

It's very possible that the USD will lose a lot of value relative to Pakistani currency, rendering your retirement savings less valuable in your future home currency. Wouldn't it likely be the other way, i.e. Pakistani currency would lose value compared to USD (as has been happening)? Here's the hi...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think about Pakistani bond
Replies: 55
Views: 4999

Re: Help me think about Pakistani bond

I think emerging market local currency bonds are an investment class worth considering but only through a fund like EMLC. I wouldn't be interested in a single bond.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11858

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: Emerging markets are one area where there is a case for active management: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fun ... mark=VEIEX The example given, an actively managed fund using a dividend strategy in single country, China, compares those results to a EM index fund which uses a...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Overbought?
Replies: 10
Views: 1450

Re: Is Small Value Overbought?

Small Value had a big run from about 2010-2015, but has underperformed since then and has done especially poorly the last year or so. Hard to see how it could be considered overbought. Anyway, if you believe generally in efficient markets, the market value is what it is. I don't think market cap is...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is now just anti-technology
Replies: 30
Views: 2843

Re: Small Cap Value is now just anti-technology

Vanguard small Cap Value (VBR) is 10.46% in tech
Ishares S+P 600 value (IJS) is 13.72% tech
That hardly seems anti technology
by fennewaldaj
Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP: Moving out of G Fund to F?
Replies: 49
Views: 3329

Re: TSP: Moving out of G Fund to F?

It has the yield and ease of use of an intermediate bond fund, with the safety of a CD. I don’t understand what is to be gained by making it out to be something other than that. The main thing to be gained would be an understanding that it isn’t a bond fund and doesn’t behave like one, so that peop...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 157
Views: 16401

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

I couldn't find a source yet for the country weightings in AVEM, so I downloaded the portfolio holdings--which did include country data for each holding--and did a quick pivot table in Excel: CHINA 29.6% TAIWAN 14.1% SOUTH KOREA 13.7% BRAZIL 9.3% SOUTH AFRICA 6.3% INDIA 5.8% THAILAND 3.6% RUSSIA 3....
by fennewaldaj
Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 34
Views: 3887

Re: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)

Read: "The Coming Collapse of China" by Gordon Chang https://smile.amazon.com/Coming-Collapse-China-Gordon-Chang/dp/037550477X/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= "The Third Revolution. . . . " by Elizabeth Economy https://smile.amazon.com/Third-Revolution-Jinping-Chinese-State/dp/01908660...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 12580

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Since the majority of US stocks are held by tax-free investors, people tend to care less about taxes. I don't think so (re: "majority of US stocks," which I interpret as a majority of shares or wealth in equity). A 2/3 majority of US-based investor dollars in stocks (67%) are held by the top 1% in ...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 28390

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

Getting back to the topic of the OP..... SCV currently being below historical PE while the rest of the market is near its historical PE certainly means that today they are cheaper relative to history. It's worth noting the whole premise of the thread is dependent on which "earnings" measure you use...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 68
Views: 4983

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

I would definitely have trouble sleeping at night if I had to hold a portfolio with a 97% weighting to foreign securities to reflect the theoretical "proper weighting" of Canadian stocks and bonds in my portfolio. Those of us from the US are really quite lucky as we can have global weight and still...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Risk of International Bond Investing
Replies: 24
Views: 4351

Re: The Risk of International Bond Investing

I don't trust the M* data, though; M* says that all the non-investment-grade bonds are below B, probably because Vanguard doesn't break down the 43% that is below Baa. A fund with 57% investment-grade bonds and 43% bonds rated CCC or lower would have an overall rating of B, but a fund with 57% inve...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Risk of International Bond Investing
Replies: 24
Views: 4351

Re: The Risk of International Bond Investing

By comparison, the breakdown of VGOVX, the Vanguard Emerging Markets Bond Index Fund, really is quite low in credit quality. Morningstar's page an average credit rating of "B" (below investment grade), and, interestingly enough, lower than the category average of "BB." From Vanguard's web page, "Po...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 249
Views: 22629

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

Right. Central banks have definitely had an influence on the shorter end of the yield curve worldwide. Doesn't QE affect the whole yield curve? I think its clear that the safe euro countries would still have low yields without QE but they would almost certainly still be higher than they are due to ...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ed Yardeni on market slide
Replies: 19
Views: 3889

Re: Ed Yardeni on market slide

Well, the correlation between GDP growth and equity returns is negative apparently so maybe it's good news that economic growth is slowing :P In the book expected returns by Antti Ilmanen his conclusion was that GDP growth rate is a long term cap on eps growth but that returns are usually lower due...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 12580

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:20 pm

Models are useful, but they are not eternal verities.

PJW
Sure but the point that shares of companies are not really worth anything (except in the same way bitcoin is worth something) if they never pay out to their shareholders ever remains.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 18798

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

You have the option of buying a China-specific ETF if you really want to, but then we are in non-Boglehead portfolio territory. Such ETFs are concentrated, high-ER (>0.60%), a crowded trade, and far from clear they're a representative sample of the Chinese economy. I don't really think a china spec...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negative yield?
Replies: 94
Views: 7023

Re: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negitave yeald?

People certainly can keep their money in paper cash if rates go too negative, which is an important feedback loop in the system. Remove paper cash and rates can go a lot lower. It seems like the economist magazine has an article every 6 months or so talking about the possibility of getting rid of p...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negative yield?
Replies: 94
Views: 7023

Re: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negitave yeald?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:27 am
staustin wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:24 am
well, an individual investor shouldn't..
I disagree, see my edit above. An individual can easily have $300,000 in bonds in their portfolio. You're going to put that in a safety deposit box? Really? I simply don't believe that.
At -0.3 % or whatever no. At very negative yields definitely.
by fennewaldaj
Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 18798

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

I was referring to those who have been sitting on international equities for the last two decades. If you are an accumulator at with something like a 40/40/20 portfolio since 2000, you are missing about 20% of your portfolio due to international equity drag. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/back...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes
Replies: 41
Views: 4026

Re: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes

For those who are anxious to bet on unconstrained deep value and deep size exposures which a lot of people on this Forum seem anxious to do, your fund is the RYDEX S&P 600 Pure Value Index Fund, RYAZX. It has unbeatably deep exposure to both of these factors. Since its inception on 2/20/04, more th...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes
Replies: 41
Views: 4026

Re: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes

One thing I find interesting is that that R2K pure value performed very similar to R2K [regular] value. However, the S&P 600 pure value has been all over the place compared to the S&P 600 [regular] value. Probably, the S&P 600 pure value is too few securities to form a representative sample of the ...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 29, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes
Replies: 41
Views: 4026

Re: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes

One thing I find interesting is that that R2K pure value performed very similar to R2K [regular] value. However, the S&P 600 pure value has been all over the place compared to the S&P 600 [regular] value. Probably, the S&P 600 pure value is too few securities to form a representative sample of the ...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 29, 2019 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for small cap value - Ben Felix video
Replies: 26
Views: 1686

Re: The case for small cap value - Ben Felix video

38% of the Russell 2000 companies have no net income. The Russel 2000 with its debt burdened companies will be slaughtered very soon. Where are you getting this stat from? From wisdomtree fund compare tool has the r2k with 20.5% negative earners. The r2k value is 13.6%. The S+p 600 is more popular ...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 29, 2019 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for small cap value - Ben Felix video
Replies: 26
Views: 1686

Re: The case for small cap value - Ben Felix video

YRT70 wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:45 am
[
Going by the information on their website, SLYV also has slightly deeper value exposure than IJS.
Since they track the same index that likely just reflects different ways of measuring metrics.
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do people in HCOL areas have a higher net worth and more wealth building potential than LCOL?
Replies: 289
Views: 22050

Re: Do people in HCOL areas have a higher net worth and more wealth building potential than LCOL?

For my field (pharmacy) pay is generally not much lower or sometimes actually higher in LCOL areas. So clearly for me LCOL area is better. My wife works as a developer at a tech startup. Surprisingly she is also better in our LCOL area because she would have never gotten the job in the first place i...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 24290

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

Vineviz and Hedgefundies frequent post on this subject have convinced me to make my new nominal treasuries long term. Most of my treasuries up to this point have been in the G fund. I like the unique structure of the G fund enough to keep it (it is a legacy account so can't grow). I have a TIPs all...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 24290

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

Vineviz and Hedgefundies frequent post on this subject have convinced me to make my new nominal treasuries long term. Most of my treasuries up to this point have been in the G fund. I like the unique structure of the G fund enough to keep it (it is a legacy account so can't grow). I have a TIPs all...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 24290

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

Vineviz and Hedgefundies frequent post on this subject have convinced me to make my new nominal treasuries long term. Most of my treasuries up to this point have been in the G fund. I like the unique structure of the G fund enough to keep it (it is a legacy account so can't grow). I have a TIPs allo...
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What rate of return do you use when calculating long term investments?
Replies: 32
Views: 3055

Re: What rate of return do you use when calculating long term investments?

My planning range is 0%-6% real. I have set our savings rate to ensure we are ok with 0 % real. My expectation is more in the 3-4% real range.
by fennewaldaj
Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in Vanguard funds via Fidelity
Replies: 40
Views: 8294

Re: Investing in Vanguard funds via Fidelity

There's no need to stick to vanguard funds at Fidelity. Fidelity has great fund options as well, and iShares ETF's are commission free. Between both Fidelity and iShares you have everything comparable to Vanguard and then some. For those that have access to a fidelity brokerage link account though ...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10733

Re: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?

People say value stocks have "underperfomed", but when I start analyzing actual companies, I'm not seeing the screaming bargains. Tobias Carlisle made this point in a podcast I listed to him on. The spread between deep value and high growth is close to as wide as its ever been historically but deep...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10733

Re: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?

But on the topic of SCV; about 35% of that category is financials and another large portion is REITs. With interest rates remaining low for the foreseeable future there is not really much earnings growth possible for the financial sector. The absolute value of interest rates does not matter though ...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10733

Re: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?

...As a consumer, I love Amazon. As an investor, I'm still somewhat skeptical... The AMZN I bought a little over 2 years ago is up 241%. My skepticism has been dispelled. Amazon is undoubtably a good business. The stock maybe maybe not. It could easily give up a lot of those gains if the growth sto...
by fennewaldaj
Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Expands Their Index Fund Lineup
Replies: 70
Views: 9913

Re: Fidelity Expands Their Index Fund Lineup

Do you guys think it is ok to invest a large chunk 200k+ in FMBIX or should I wait and see how it performs? Since it's an index they are matching, I don't see any reason to think they will not be able to do it well. Fidelity's expertise in both indexing and bond investing is state of the art as far...
by fennewaldaj
Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?
Replies: 10
Views: 605

Re: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?

I have both actually. I have vanguards total international bond fund in my safe bond bucket. I have both EM USD bonds and EM local currency bonds (unhedged) in my less safe bond allocation.
by fennewaldaj
Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 24290

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

For one thing, before the Volcker-Greenspan era the Federal Reserve was actively and directly suppressing long-term yields as part of their policy approach. As a result, the relationship between inflation and bond returns was seriously distorted. See here for a Wasn't QE an attempt to actively supp...
by fennewaldaj
Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: WisdomTree DLS has P/CF of 9.61. Is that low enough for value??
Replies: 7
Views: 712

Re: WisdomTree DLS has P/CF of 9.61. Is that low enough for value??

Is the number you saw price to free cash flow maybe?
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 25732

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

fyi, there is clearly no risk story for MOM, low vol, profitability and quality. I don't agree with Larry that there is "clearly" no risk story for these factors. My view is that the risks associated with some of the other factors are somewhat more obvious and maybe better documented, but IMHO ther...
by fennewaldaj
Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?
Replies: 14
Views: 1151

Re: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?

As was stated above I would expect it to help you a bit if returns were more or less the same. I ran a test for the last 15 years where returns were very close to the same. It did help but only a tiny bit (~0.06%). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=200...
by fennewaldaj
Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 112
Views: 13069

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

I'll never say never. If deflation is say -5%, a government backed -1% might seem OK. But as an individual, I hope I'll always have cash as an option. Some businesses might not have that option. Yep, that's the key. A relatively small sum can be kept in cash. One million fits in a carry-on. Interes...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 9301

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

I would never put 100% of my stocks in Small Value. My belief is that you can't ignore the Large Cap stocks. Not an advocate of extreme tilts. Yeah I don't think I could ever go there either. I actually only have 3/8 of my US stocks in large caps but I really can't wrap my head around not owning th...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 25732

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%. This cannot repeat starting from today's rates. It most certainly can repeat. I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen. Are you saying rates can go down to negative 13%? Or just that the relative decline ...
by fennewaldaj
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications
Replies: 22
Views: 3069

Re: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications

I like both the S+P 400 and 600 and have positions in both. :D