Search found 2568 matches

by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Hi Hedgefundie, Your comparison basically assumes that interest rates will continue to drop over the next 12 years. When comparing different implementations of the same basic strategy you need to make sure the equity and interest rate exposures are in a similar ratio. For example you can look at th...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Unlike this thread I use highly leveraged short term bonds (about 20x) but it's mostly the same as leveraging long term bonds. My results have been... interesting, to say the least. 2016-2017: Huge gains, something like 50% CAGR. The gains came entirely from the stocks side, while the bonds steadil...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Final note on the PIMCO fund. It presents an interesting opportunity to compare futures vs. daily leveraged ETF implementations: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=06%2F17%2F2019&...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Final note on the PIMCO fund. It presents an interesting opportunity to compare futures vs. daily leveraged ETF implementations: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=06%2F17%2F2019&i...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Comparing the PIMCO fund with the simulated 3x funds, the latter comes close on Sharpe and beats on Sortino (which is the better metric anyway). As expected, the 3x strategy has a salutary effect during market crashes.

Image
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

mrspock wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:16 am
gw wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:52 am
Hot tip - try with 10x leverage - it's even better!
... first they ridicule you.
20 years from now when my M1 balance hits $10M I’d be happy to invite everyone who has contributed to this thread onboard my yacht. Especially the haters.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

The institutional PIMCO "Plus" funds are available to anyone with a Vanguard Brokerage account for $25k minimum. I've held them in my Roth for the last 10 years with good results. In my opinion they have expected Sharp ratios higher than the strategy advocated in this thread, primarily due to the e...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Hi Hedgefundie, If 12 years ago you had placed a bet that long term rates would drop over the next 12 years, you would have won your bet. There is no additional information content in your statement above. Looking at this thread there are many instances of irrational thinking: 1) mental accounting ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

The institutional PIMCO "Plus" funds are available to anyone with a Vanguard Brokerage account for $25k minimum. I've held them in my Roth for the last 10 years with good results. In my opinion they have expected Sharp ratios higher than the strategy advocated in this thread, primarily due to the e...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 87
Views: 5759

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

Adding in TMF to the maximum efficiency mix, say weighted at 37 TMF/63 max efficient, does well to smooth out some bumps. I get for 2005 to present CAGR: 10.86% versus 8.61% worst year: -5.99% versus -32.75% Sharpe ratio: 0.71 versus 0.62 Sortino ratio: 1.14 versus 0.86 Trying to keep the leveraged...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?
Replies: 92
Views: 3954

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

10% of total portfolio is in VNQ. The main reason is that I am in a VHCOL and rent. So this serves to expose me to the real estate market more like people who own their house in MCOL areas. In my mental model, this will also fund my down payment when I do buy a home. One other thing I have noticed ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

File this one under "this is not a new idea". PIMCO's StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund (PSLDX) was launched in September 2007. It has a 5-star rating from Morningstar, and can be found in some 401ks. It holds: 100% S&P 500 futures 100% Long Bonds (actively managed, both Treasury & Corporate) -100% 3-mo...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about SPIVA and active vrs passive metrics
Replies: 11
Views: 385

Re: Question about SPIVA and active vrs passive metrics

Most active funds with low fees are closet index funds. The few that have activeshare have a better chance to outperform, but it's still less than 50-50. Rick Ferri Rick's point is a good one. In the context of the PRIMECAP example I gave above, consider the following. In the last 10 years look at ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice — asking for the “gray hair perspective”
Replies: 39
Views: 2594

Re: Career advice — asking for the “gray hair perspective”

Are we talking law or management consulting? If the latter, there are plenty of firms that would love to have your expertise on staff. That's interesting. Why do you say that? To answer your question, I guess it would fall more on the management consulting side of the spectrum, but most of us are l...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doing Your Own Taxes
Replies: 36
Views: 2911

Re: Doing Your Own Taxes

I used FreeTaxUSA for the first time this year. Pros: Almost free to complete and to file both Federal and State returns. Cons: You have to know what you’re doing. For example, they asked how much mortgage interest I wanted to deduct. If I didn’t already know about the new tax law limiting deduction...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about SPIVA and active vrs passive metrics
Replies: 11
Views: 385

Re: Question about SPIVA and active vrs passive metrics

Thanks, that makes sense. However, doesn't it suggest that those active fund managers would likely be capable of beating the market with some regularity if they didn't charge fees to the investor? No it doesn’t. The ones that beat can’t repeat. That’s why Bogleheads invest the way we do. Cheers Exc...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice — asking for the “gray hair perspective”
Replies: 39
Views: 2594

Re: Career advice — asking for the “gray hair perspective”

Are we talking law or management consulting?

If the latter, there are plenty of firms that would love to have your expertise on staff.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage refinance options - should I proceed?
Replies: 8
Views: 674

Re: Mortgage refinance options - should I proceed?

You may be underestimating the savings impact of an ARM.

You can probably get a 5/1 ARM for 2.75 - 3%

That’s $10k/yr savings on interest compared to your current loan, $50k total savings.

You said you will likely be in the house for 5 years. What about afterward?
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So much for financial predictions, eh?
Replies: 46
Views: 4151

Re: So much for financial predictions, eh?

CU Later: Great post. Thank you. Nobody knows nothing - John Bogle Solution: Own the market and stay-the-course. Best wishes. Taylor In this case, the prediction was about bonds. Plenty of Bogleheads were encouraging folks to go shorter in their bond holdings. Because “rates have nowhere to go but ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So much for financial predictions, eh?
Replies: 46
Views: 4151

Re: So much for financial predictions, eh?

CU Later: Great post. Thank you. Nobody knows nothing - John Bogle Solution: Own the market and stay-the-course. Best wishes. Taylor In this case, the prediction was about bonds. Plenty of Bogleheads were encouraging folks to go shorter in their bond holdings. Because “rates have nowhere to go but ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 87
Views: 5759

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

If it is not a logical problem, then kindly answer my question from above. Is Portfolio C more or less diversified than Portfolio B? You did the math wrong. B and C should have the exact same diversification ratio. I don’t think so. Show me where the math is wrong. Portfolio B and C are different p...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 87
Views: 5759

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

That's a good observation. A similar logical issue occurs with risk parity. IMO this logical issue makes the diversification ratio less useful as an objective measurement of diversification, because the DR of TSM alone is 1, adding VPU increases the DR, but VPU is already part of TSM, so you are ad...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 87
Views: 5759

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

That's a good observation. A similar logical issue occurs with risk parity. IMO this logical issue makes the diversification ratio less useful as an objective measurement of diversification, because the DR of TSM alone is 1, adding VPU increases the DR, but VPU is already part of TSM, so you are ad...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8297

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Personally, I will stick with index funds over ETFs. Index funds can be explained in detail in a paragraph or two. I have read every page in the wiki that references or explains ETFs, and I've read them several times over. I've read tens or likely even 100 forum topics on ETFs as well. All this tim...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Coming back to this thread, I think a similar bandwagon effect is happening due to the long rally in long term bonds and negative correlation with equities. What might cause the strategy to lag? Nobody thinks of inflation as a threat today, but this is the one thing that will really set back the le...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8297

Re: The Case Against ETFs

I agree that active mutual funds are bad. But I’d argue that “passive” ETFs have encouraged investors to trade more frequently. And this hurts returns. You could argue it, but without any evidence how convinced should anyone be by that argument? SPIVA and DALBAR both report active performance every...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8297

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Two thoughts: 1. The vast majority of actively managed funds are actually mutual funds, not ETFs. This is because ETFs are required to report their holdings daily, which would give away the active manager's strategy. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/types-of-etfs-act...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8297

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Interesting, totally agree on actively managed mutual funds! It just seems like there’s a false choice between actively MFs and passive ETFs. Bogle coined the term Traditional Index Funds. The hallmark of Vanguard. It seems like Vanguard and Bogleheads are turning away from that vision and embracin...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8297

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Two thoughts: 1. The vast majority of actively managed funds are actually mutual funds, not ETFs. This is because ETFs are required to report their holdings daily, which would give away the active manager's strategy. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/types-of-etfs-acti...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

How much does this strategy suffer in a taxable account? Would the cumulative taxes/fees mitigate any advantage over, say 100% VTSAX? (I prefer the simplicity of keeping my core retirement portfolio intact and with Vanguard.) The trailing 12 month distribution yield of UPRO is 0.63%, and TMF's is 1...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Forget] The Seaweed! We're Headed For Cancun!!
Replies: 17
Views: 1439

Re: [Forget] The Seaweed! We're Headed For Cancun!!

Hey All, First time to Cancun. Family vacay and staying at the RIU Riviera Maya. I'm not a lay-on-the-beach-guy so I'm wondering what interesting things some of the Bogleheads who've been to Cancun, have found to to do near-by. Also wondering best place to buy good cigars. Best, Bill Cancun is dang...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

petulant wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:57 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE,

My apologies for not wading through 40 pages, but could you direct me to any part of the discussion that discusses pros/cons to attempting to construct this strategy from derivatives directly rather than leveraged ETFs?

Thanks,

petulant
Either search for “futures” or PM hdas.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Term premium: borrowing short to buy long, or in other words the delta between the short rate and the long rate. The other details don’t really matter (LIBOR is going away soon, presumably to be replaced by a short Treasury rate, and the financing spread could be positive or negative, so I’m assumin...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1268

Re: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund

The Russell 3000? That's just a total market index (and not one that Vanguard usually uses; why here?) It is doesn't make any more sense to compare VFMF to the Russell 3000 than to compare the Vanguard Value Index Fund to the Russell 3000. This isn't supposed to be a total market index ETF, why is ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Here is something you are missing - the financing spread on TMF is actually negative, i.e. the financing rate is below LIBOR. You can confirm this via the latest annual reports. When interest rates are expected to rise, it makes sense that TMF can get paid to take on that risk via swaps. HEDGEFUNDI...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Your strategy is analogous to saying a 40/60 stock and long term treasury allocation have fared well in the past with low drawdowns, meaning you can 3x it, giving you roughly 2x the returns with 3x the risk and drawdowns. That’s not a good trade, and 60% long term treasuries will certainly do poorl...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

5. I was just interested if you had analyzed these scenarios (flat or rising rates). Mathematically, or with Monte Carlos, or whatever else.I think that was gw's point too. Based on the fact that you replied with a backtest of falling rates and are offering to run data I provide, would it be fair t...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

5. I was just interested if you had analyzed these scenarios (flat or rising rates). Mathematically, or with Monte Carlos, or whatever else.I think that was gw's point too. Based on the fact that you replied with a backtest of falling rates and are offering to run data I provide, would it be fair t...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

In your longest available backtest, it has twice the std dev of 100% equities, a 1.5x worse max drawdown (75%), and essentially the same returns (10% vs. 11%), so a pretty big fail. But worse than that, the strategy essentially *only* made money during the post-1981 period of steadily falling rates...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

It's actually only doubling the volatility of EDV, but anyway... Could you explain how that's the case? A 3x leveraged ETF will display a 3x change in daily price over the regular fund. If volatility is measured as standard deviation (which I believe is the case), then multiplying a random variable...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Your strategy is analogous to saying a 40/60 stock and long term treasury allocation have fared well in the past with low drawdowns, meaning you can 3x it, giving you roughly 2x the returns with 3x the risk and drawdowns. That’s not a good trade, and 60% long term treasuries will certainly do poorl...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I'm with gw on this one. LIBOR rate is at 2.41%. Current long term treasury yields are at 2.875%. That's a term premium of 0.465%. The expense ratio is ~1%. So investing 10k in TMF should net (if rates stay constant): (Return of the unlevered part) + (Return of levered part) - (Expense) = Returns 1...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I'm with gw on this one. LIBOR rate is at 2.41%. Current long term treasury yields are at 2.875%. That's a term premium of 0.465%. The expense ratio is ~1%. So investing 10k in TMF should net (if rates stay constant): (Return of the unlevered part) + (Return of levered part) - (Expense) = Returns 1...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Rising interest rates are good for the bond portion of the strategy in the long run and bad for the bond portion of the strategy in the short run. ... where I guess "short run" includes steadily losing half your portfolio over a 14-year period while stocks go up, as in the historical examples above...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

What is the ex-ante reason we should accept sharply rising rates as a serious risk to my strategy? I agree we should base our decisions on ex-ante reasoning, not just backtesting. I've given you my reasoning, give me yours. To the extent that we can form an ex-ante position on interest rates, it's ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?
Replies: 252
Views: 21459

Re: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?

We always determined how much house we could afford by how much house would could pay for in cash. Through the years that number climbed and we would sell the one we were in and move up. Most of our lives we lived in a 200,000 to 300,000 house in a low cost of living area, plus we had a vacation ho...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

You're missing or evading the basic point, which is that effectively all you've done is to identify that bonds were a great investment over the last thirty years. ... Thank you for one of the most insightful posts in this thread. Of course you will get insane performance by picking the two best per...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?
Replies: 252
Views: 21459

Re: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?

We always determined how much house we could afford by how much house would could pay for in cash. Through the years that number climbed and we would sell the one we were in and move up. Most of our lives we lived in a 200,000 to 300,000 house in a low cost of living area, plus we had a vacation ho...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2045
Views: 150342

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Why would this have died on page 1? Ignoring everything else, the 1955-Present backtest shows similar long term return vs. the S&P 500, while delivering double its CAGR over the past 37 years and counting... That is worth 500 posts, at least! You're missing or evading the basic point, which is that...