Search found 1564 matches

by HEDGEFUNDIE
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house can I afford (really)?
Replies: 129
Views: 6629

Re: How much house can I afford (really)?

I'd suggest you try to budget monthly expenses to see where you could save for additional mortgage expenses if you really want the upgrade. As someone pointed out you spent ~$162K last year with a $420K house (~3000 sqft). As a comparison my family lived a in a VHCOL area in CA with a ~$1.3M townho...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house can I afford (really)?
Replies: 129
Views: 6629

Re: How much house can I afford (really)?

I'd suggest you try to budget monthly expenses to see where you could save for additional mortgage expenses if you really want the upgrade. As someone pointed out you spent ~$162K last year with a $420K house (~3000 sqft). As a comparison my family lived a in a VHCOL area in CA with a ~$1.3M townho...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy a house in the Bay area or give up?
Replies: 66
Views: 4221

Re: Should I buy a house in the Bay area or give up?

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:27 pm
Give up until you have another person's salary to help buy the house. That is, get married to someon who works or have working roommates so you can charge rent.
+1.

200k/yr will buy you nothing. 400k/yr will get you in the game.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any MD pursued a CFA? Thoughts?
Replies: 17
Views: 1480

Re: Any MD pursued a CFA? Thoughts?

Any MD considering going to business school for fun should read the HBS business case on Shouldice Hernia Hospital (you can find it online with some quick Googling). Almost every MBA student in the past 30 years has encountered it in their curriculum. And it has also single handedly made the hospita...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering dropping Vanguard advisory services
Replies: 3
Views: 874

Re: Considering dropping Vanguard advisory services

Selling Total International now when it has just dropped 15% is locking in your losses.

If you’re going to sell it, do so after a year when it goes up 30% (like in 2017).
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

The guaranteed $100k is magic Annuity money, it not your Dads money. He can’t get his hands on it. The value is in the underlying investments minus the fees. The guarantee stops after 10 yrs. After 2020, the growth on actual value will not keep up with fees and the 5% annual withdrawals. The actual...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

I am guessing you are trying to pick a fight, I know the board hates variable annuities, I am pretty sure you came here to spur confrontation and conflict. Is it really a surprise given your opening statement? Here are my takeaways: 1. Variable annuities are usually a bad deal. 2. Except when they ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

I wanted to post a potential success story my father just had I checked how a 65/35 VT/BND $50k investment would have done since 2010 - it would have only grown to 81k as of today. Let’s say it will grow to $86k by 2020. That amount would buy an SPIA of $5,300/yr. Success Story? Is $5300 > $5000? B...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

That $100k guaranteed, I'm assuming you can't get your hands on it, right? So basically your dad locked up his money for 10 years without any option to touch it (short of brutal fees). Fact is that purchase had a huge commission. Somebody had to pay for the building and the salesperson. Period. All...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

A good deal or not should be evaluated at purchase. Sometimes we get lucky with the timing and an average deal looks great in hindsight. Example: a 30 year mortgage rate of 3.75% would have been average at best a couple of years ago. Those rates look like an absolute steal now. Completely agree, bu...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

Sometimes it's fun to do IRR calculations on the cash flows. year age cash flo IRR 1 51 -50000 2 52 0 3 53 0 4 54 0 5 55 0 6 56 0 7 57 0 8 58 0 9 59 0 10 60 0 11 61 5000 12 62 5000 -14.19% 13 63 5000 -10.34% 14 64 5000 -7.63% 15 65 5000 -5.59% 16 66 5000 -3.99% 17 67 5000 -2.70% 18 68 5000 -1.63% 1...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

I checked how a 65/35 VT/BND $50k investment would have done since 2010 - it would have only grown to 81k as of today. Let’s say it will grow to $86k by 2020. That amount would buy an SPIA of $5,300/yr. I just checked VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market) and $32,500 (65% of $50,000) would have grown...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

If it's okay for me to ask - what is the purpose of buying any type of annuity for 50,000? The payment of $5k/year. That's not a lot of money. OP - what was the goal or purpose of purchasing such a small annuity? I'm not judging, it's an honest question from someone that doesn't understand. I can't...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House
Replies: 162
Views: 8462

Re: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House

What you are missing is that 30-45 days is plenty of time for the buyer to back out of the contract if they get cold feet or find a better house. They'll give up some of the earnest money, but the relative burden still falls on the seller in this case, who may have passed on other offers for this o...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

How does one evaluate a variable annuity ? I'm serious here -- I consider myself moderately financially wary, but I couldnt begin to evaluate whether a variable annuity is a good deal or not. What do insurance companies actually buy on the back end with the invested money, and could a retail invest...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House
Replies: 162
Views: 8462

Re: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House

In the market I work in 90% of houses are vacant and professionally staged to get top dollar. In these cases the seller is on the hook every day that the house is on the market for property taxes, their own mortgage, maybe HOA fees; all that can add up to thousands of dollars per month. So yes, a c...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House
Replies: 162
Views: 8462

Re: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House

I do see inexperienced homebuyers and novice investors making the same mistake that you're making by thinking that paying cash for a house would automatically get them a huge discount. If you put yourself in a seller's shoes, you'll see the exact reason that this strategy only works in fairly unusu...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House
Replies: 162
Views: 8462

Re: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House

I am a realtor and I would never pass a “cash offer” onto my seller client that did not have proof of funds for the entire purchase price sitting in a bank account somewhere. That's not always done, but regardless, as I mentioned above, would be a non-issue in situations that we're discussing where...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

He was 51 when he purchased the annuity in 2010. Payout starts in 2020. Immediateannuity spits out a 10 year deferred annuity benefit of $4,560/yr for a 51 year old male purchasing today. I just checked 10 year Treasuries (which drive annuity payouts), their yield was similar or lower back in 2010 ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

I know the board hates variable annuities, but I wanted to post a potential success story my father just had. In 2010 he purchased a Prudential Premier Retirement L Series with Highest Daily Lifetime 6 Plus rider. The beginning purchase price was $50k (no load was charged). The annuity rider guaran...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House
Replies: 162
Views: 8462

Re: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House

If you read the actual replies, you'll see that people are using the term "cash offer" as a shorthand way of describing the type of buyer who will be able to close on the transaction no matter what. I've already explained that the term "cash offer" doesn't mean what you think that it means, but you...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

Third, if annuitizing at a payout rate well below market is the only payout option, the “base value” (including the 100k floor) is just artful deception. At no time is that amount actually the “value” of his contract. Is 5% payout for a 61 year old below market? Why is the $100k floor not an in-the...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

Second, the “market value” may be growth after higher-than-necessary expenses. The market value of the investment fund is currently at $86k, higher than the VT/BND investment option. But this figure is irrelevant given that it likely won’t exceed the $100k guarantee by next year. Third, if annuitiz...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 1997

Variable annuity, a success story?

I know the board hates variable annuities, but I wanted to post a potential success story my father just had. In 2010 he purchased a Prudential Premier Retirement L Series with Highest Daily Lifetime 6 Plus rider. The beginning purchase price was $50k (no load was charged). The annuity rider guarant...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 873

Re: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA

hdas wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:49 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:46 am
Check out SMMV instead of XSLV.
What's the rationale for this preference? Thx
SMMV is less small than XSLV, which means less volatility.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage: 15 vs 30 year
Replies: 56
Views: 4041

Re: Mortgage: 15 vs 30 year

I second the vote for a 7 or 10 year ARM. When I bought my starter home I knew I'd only be in it for 5-6 years. I locked into an incredibly low 7 year ARM rate and sure enough 4.5 years later we sold and moved. It made sense for us, and if you're confident you'll only be there for 8 years, I'd sugg...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone have entire 401K in bonds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4635

Re: Does anyone have entire 401K in bonds?

You need to consider your cash as part of your bond AA. In which case you don’t need more bonds. Is there a scenario where you do not? I have a few other life/family situations, where I feel a larger emergency fund is needed to allow me to sleep. For example, someone who may need high medical expen...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage: 15 vs 30 year
Replies: 56
Views: 4041

Re: Mortgage: 15 vs 30 year

I second the vote for a 7 or 10 year ARM. When I bought my starter home I knew I'd only be in it for 5-6 years. I locked into an incredibly low 7 year ARM rate and sure enough 4.5 years later we sold and moved. It made sense for us, and if you're confident you'll only be there for 8 years, I'd sugg...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Curious about POSKX Primecap Odyssey Stock Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 559

Re: Curious about POSKX Primecap Odyssey Stock Fund

No advice on POSKX, but I would get rid of RWO. It has underperformed VT since inception with higher volatility. People around here say that real estate isn’t worth a separate allocation from ordinary stocks. This is the proof. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=RWO&benc...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8380

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: I have a mid six figure Roth IRA I am about to move away from Vanguard because of this decision. If your investment style involves leveraged and inverse ETFs as trading vehicles, Vanguard is clearly not the place for you. There are plenty of financial companies that will be happy...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

If you’re going to worry about the culture of capitalism in foreign countries, that would make the case for investing in EM stronger vs investing in other developed countries outside the US. In France we are seeing a huge backlash to Macron’s modest capital-friendly reforms. Germany has mandatory wo...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation dilemma
Replies: 12
Views: 969

Re: Asset Allocation dilemma

I whole-heartedly support your plan to invest in both. Count yourself lucky you have access to PRIMECAP. Thank you, but don't you think there is an overlap between both the funds? No, I don't think there is much overlap at all: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=VIMAX&b...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1850

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

1) You offer no evidence that it is a "cliff" or a "timing opportunity," rather than a gradual process. I know of no way for a retail investor to invest easily in whole-nation economies or GDPs . What I can invest in is stocks . And China's stock market is a tenth the size of the US. Currently, the...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1850

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

1) You offer no evidence that it is a "cliff" or a "timing opportunity," rather than a gradual process. I know of no way for a retail investor to invest easily in whole-nation economies or GDPs . What I can invest in is stocks . And China's stock market is a tenth the size of the US. Currently, the...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage: 15 vs 30 year
Replies: 56
Views: 4041

Re: Mortgage: 15 vs 30 year

Why not a 7 or 10 year ARM? Lower interest rate than both the 15 and 30 years.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 873

Re: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA

Check out SMMV instead of XSLV.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Do the E.M. Index Funds typically include the countries run by dictators? Let's exclude the almost dictatorish run countries like China. Do the EM Index funds include countries with dictatorships and if so is it any meaningful percentage of the fund. My guess is an E.M. fund that is say 5-10% of on...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funds Overlap Tool
Replies: 9
Views: 747

Re: Funds Overlap Tool

Any overlap tools out there for that work with both mutual funds and etfs?
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401k options for mom
Replies: 1
Views: 197

Re: New 401k options for mom

In terms of fees, the two options are almost exactly the same. Option 2 has a weighted average expense ratio of 0.29 In terms of past performance, the American fund has beaten the pants off the passive option: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&fir...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone have entire 401K in bonds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4635

Re: Does anyone have entire 401K in bonds?

You need to consider your cash as part of your bond AA.

In which case you don’t need more bonds.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

Long term Treasuries China A-Shares Emerging market bonds Would you care to explain why you recommend these options? Thanks very much. All three examples exhibit low correlation with the US stock market. In the case of long Treasuries, the correlation has even been negative over the past 20 years o...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation dilemma
Replies: 12
Views: 969

Re: Asset Allocation dilemma

I whole-heartedly support your plan to invest in both. Count yourself lucky you have access to PRIMECAP.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilting
Replies: 20
Views: 1192

Re: SMALL CAP TILTING

The S&P 600 has basically crushed the S&P 500 since inception: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=IJR&benchmark=VFINX&endDate=01%2F13%2F2019 Small value is another story. I recommend small blend, not small value. I like IJR as well. The issue with the cum_diff() vs SP50...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilting
Replies: 20
Views: 1192

Re: SMALL CAP TILTING

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:58 pm
Is there any reason why VTWO doesn’t do as well as IJR? I googled and that’s the equivalent Vanguard ETF.
VIOO is the Vanguard equivalent of IJR.

VTWO tracks Russell 2000, not S&P 600.
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilting
Replies: 20
Views: 1192

Re: SMALL CAP TILTING

... 3. What small cap funds in general do bogleheads recommend for long term investing? I don't recommend small cap investing. I have a S&P 500 index fund, which effectively has no small caps. If I was going to suggest something with small-caps it would be the "Total Market" fund which holds small ...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

Long term Treasuries
China A-Shares
Emerging market bonds
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Took on too much mortgage, seeking advice on where to put money going forward
Replies: 46
Views: 5175

Re: Took on too much mortgage, seeking advice on where to put money going forward

Another thing: Something isn't adding up here for me. You said $55k down payment, $370k mortgage @ 5% for 30 years. You later posted a breakdown of the mortgage as (including only relevant items for the mortgage calculation): $381 principal + $1,315 interest = $1,696. But if you're at $370k mortgag...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for China A-Shares
Replies: 22
Views: 1489

Re: The case for China A-Shares

There is this tendency to see the Chinese government as this big boogeyman that is out to get us, including the small investor. To be honest they are just a bunch of old dudes who fought their way to the top of a biggest bureaucracy in the world, and their reward is to manage the chaotic interests a...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for China A-Shares
Replies: 22
Views: 1489

Re: The case for China A-Shares

EDIT: Here, a 2015 Fortune article: China’s Shanghai Composite is dominated by state-owned companies—the top ten valued companies are all state-owned. The Communist Party floats only a small percentage of a company’s equity on the stock exchange while keeping control of the rest. So a core part a c...
by HEDGEFUNDIE
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for China A-Shares
Replies: 22
Views: 1489

Re: The case for China A-Shares

From page 3 of the paper you cited: Total foreign ownership still amounts to less than $200 billion. To put that in perspective, the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund has $726.4 billion invested in that one fund alone (all classes, incl. ETF). Something is preventing more foreign investment. That so...