Search found 288 matches

by Socal77
Wed May 18, 2022 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current short term cash options
Replies: 25
Views: 3630

Re: Current short term cash options

Vanguard's Money Market funds are on the rise. There are currently better rates available in high-yield bank accounts, but if I already had money at Vanguard I would consider them before opening a new account. In prior rate changes, my observation seemed to be that the bank rates were trailing money market fund rates. The banks seemed to still be offering higher as rates when they were going lower, but when rates were on the rise the banks were also slower to raise them. Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) 7 day SEC yield (as of 04/21/2022) 0.22% Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund Admiral Shares (VMRXX) 7 day SEC yield (as of 04/21/2022) 0.23% Vanguard California Municipal Money Market Fund (VCTXX) 7 day SEC yield (as ...
by Socal77
Wed May 18, 2022 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current short term cash options
Replies: 25
Views: 3630

Re: Current short term cash options

Vanguard's Money Market funds are on the rise. There are currently better rates available in high-yield bank accounts, but if I already had money at Vanguard I would consider them before opening a new account. In prior rate changes, my observation seemed to be that the bank rates were trailing money market fund rates. The banks seemed to still be offering higher as rates when they were going lower, but when rates were on the rise the banks were also slower to raise them. Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) 7 day SEC yield (as of 04/21/2022) 0.22% Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund Admiral Shares (VMRXX) 7 day SEC yield (as of 04/21/2022) 0.23% Vanguard California Municipal Money Market Fund (VCTXX) 7 day SEC yield (as ...
by Socal77
Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current short term cash options
Replies: 25
Views: 3630

Re: Current short term cash options

jebmke wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:44 am It would help if you stated roughly how much money you need to park and how you define "short term". T-Bills are an option but for a small amount, it won't move the needle and I'd leave in the bank.
This is more for recommending Vanguard to someone as a one stop shop. I have Fidelity and Cap360 High Performance Savings @ .4% where I keep my emergency fund and savings cash in one spot. Because Fidelity does not have good MM options.

Vanguard was competitive with high yield online savings so you could keep emergency fund, cash, and everything else in one place.
by Socal77
Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current short term cash options
Replies: 25
Views: 3630

Current short term cash options

State of short term cash FDIC or low risk MM funds? Not CD's or iBonds...

I've been using the now Cap360 Performance savings @ .4% APR and there ae others of course. And Fidelity all else.

I usually recommend Vanguards as a one stop shop but seems they are lower than online HIgh Yield Savings.

Fidelity as we know does not have good short term cash.
by Socal77
Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to decide between pursuing FIRE vs. increasing consumption?
Replies: 46
Views: 3684

Re: How to decide between pursuing FIRE vs. increasing consumption?

FI because you never know when your ability to sustain a higher level of living could be reduced. And it's more logical to attain comfort with less than wanting more.
by Socal77
Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security income statement
Replies: 8
Views: 1097

Re: Social Security income statement

runninginvestor wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:22 pm I noticed the change this year too. Before, if it wasn't yet reported, it would list "not yet reported" on the website. If I remember correctly, looking at the PDF statement, I think it shows not yet reported. Or at least has a note that says $0 may indicate that it's not yet reported.
This makes sense, Thanks
by Socal77
Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security income statement
Replies: 8
Views: 1097

Re: Social Security income statement

Madbull wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:44 pm Just logged into my account, and also showing $0 earnings for 2021. As already discussed, nothing to worry about. (I usually check mine later in the year during my birth month, for precisely this reason. I even got my e-mail from them a few days ago proudly stating my "New" statement is ready to view. Teases. :mrgreen: )
That's what happened to me too. Here you go, zero income for the year! :-)
by Socal77
Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security income statement
Replies: 8
Views: 1097

Re: Social Security income statement

OK thanks all. It seemed I never saw a zero income my last job but maybe I happened to always check later in the year.
by Socal77
Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security income statement
Replies: 8
Views: 1097

Social Security income statement

I worked for a new company last year for about 6 months. I received my 2021 W2 from them with all holding amounts shown but my new Social Security statement shows zero 2021 income.

Has anyone had this happen? SS.gov says it can take time to post but I never had that happen during prior 21 years employment at another company.

Thanks Bogleheads
by Socal77
Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

gips wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:29 am my sil was a profligate spender all her life, had zero savings and at age 60, declared herself retired. she sold her nyc coop, walked away with about $450k of equity, purchased an ocean view condo in fl for around $225k and has spent less than $30k per year for the last five years. i’d guess it’s a mcol area.

she’s a 5 minute walk to the beach, the condo has a pool, fitness center, she doesnt own a car, takes uber twice a month, aca pays for her medical. she reads a lot, watches netflix/amazon prime and has friends in the building. now that she’s 65 she will get ss and has a $1k per month pension. not a luxurious lifestyle but certainly doable.
I think people underestimate the quality of life this example shows.
by Socal77
Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

flyfishers83 wrote: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:08 am Some of these posts are really interesting. I live in a town with median household income of less than 45k. Vacations for a lot of people around here are visiting family. I know quite a few people who have never flown. The idea of having investments is nonsense to a lot of people. You absolutely can live on 30k, but I would be very careful about choice of where to live. Your immediate surroundings would seem to be more important than for someone planning to spend a lot more money on travel and experiences.

Anyway, my advice is similar to some other posters. Find something fun that makes a few bucks and then re-assess at some interval.
When haunted by waters, all you need is a fly-rod and box of flies. :sharebeer
by Socal77
Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

It's fine to be a Diogenes Boglehead, what I am.

Accrue assets while reducing costs and material desires.

Not completely relatable to a lot of the well meaning Bogleheads that respond with good points to keep in mind. Mixing and matching Bogleheads and FIRE is excellent and practical.
by Socal77
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652310

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Setting up for the really bad days. Hope everyone had their risk tolerance adjust asset allocation set.
by Socal77
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:27 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy 98th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎂🍰🎉🎊❤️🎁⭐️
Replies: 264
Views: 19407

Re: Happy 98th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎂🍰🎉🎊❤️🎁⭐️

Happy happy Birthday Taylor! Thank you for all your wise contributions to Bogleheads!
by Socal77
Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

Wrench wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:25 am
I hope those who are looking at SS estimates realize that those estimates assume you continue to make the same salary as the previous year until retirement. In your case, if you average 18 years of zeros in the formula instead of you previous years salary (SS is based on highest 35 years of inflation adjusted salary), the payout will be dramatically lower than their projection.

Wrench
On that subject there are calculators that let you plug in zero's for the remaining working years.

https://ssa.tools/

https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement ... pplet.html
by Socal77
Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

It is not that difficult to live on $1,000 a month net of housing expenses (including property taxes, maintenance, and insurance). Outside of trips, gifts, eating out, and luxury items, I estimate I spend less than $10,000 a year on this. It includes gas, car insurance and maintenance, food, utilities, etc. In much of America the per capita income is less than $30,000. This is what I say when I say it wouldn’t be that much of a challenge to survive for $30,000 a year. It is not going to be a luxurious existence but if one is allergic to work, they have enough to subsist for the rest of their life. This is my view too. Low or close to zero housing costs and 1k or so extra a month is doable. There's lots of us who perceive the bare necessari...
by Socal77
Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

47 yo, 730k NW, 130k accessible now, rest @ 59.5 yo. Pension @ 50 for $980 mo, wait till 60, $1980 mo, no COLA $1644 SS @ 62 or @ 70 $2895 -- Zeros filled in rest of years. I'm trying to figure out how to retire/semi retire with minimal work form here out due to injury related mobility issues. Take a look at 72t withdrawals for access prior to 59.5. Thanks, will do, I believe those are hardship withdrawals. I thought it depended on the individual private 401k policy rules and I called Fidelity yesterday and asked them if I could access 401k for lump sum, like 100k, no penalty (only pay taxes) and they said no. My plan was to possibly use small lump sum withdrawal and buy cheap condo to keep housing costs low. I said I think you are wrong, ...
by Socal77
Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

47 yo, 730k NW, 130k accessible now, rest @ 59.5 yo. Pension @ 50 for $980 mo, wait till 60, $1980 mo, no COLA $1644 SS @ 62 or @ 70 $2895 -- Zeros filled in rest of years. I'm trying to figure out how to retire/semi retire with minimal work form here out due to injury related mobility issues. Take a look at 72t withdrawals for access prior to 59.5. Thanks, will do, I believe those are hardship withdrawals. I thought it depended on the individual private 401k policy rules and I called Fidelity yesterday and asked them if I could access 401k for lump sum, like 100k, no penalty (only pay taxes) and they said no. My plan was to possibly use small lump sum withdrawal and buy cheap condo to keep housing costs low. I said I think you are wrong, ...
by Socal77
Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a social security calculator that….
Replies: 12
Views: 1919

Re: Looking for a social security calculator that….

Have you tried this one? See link: https://ssa.tools/ Regards, +1. This seems like the best one to address the OP's question/issue. This is perfect, thank you both! Exactly what I was looking for. In fact, I believe I came across this site in years past, but I was beginning to think I had dreamt it or something, because I hadn't saved it and couldn't remember what it was called. I don't know how accurate it is, but plugging my numbers in just now, the results "seem" right to me compared to what my SSA statement says. FYI, in case anyone else uses this calculator: I ended up having to manually type my earnings record into Excel and then paste it into the calculator from there, because it didn't work for me to copy and paste direct...
by Socal77
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

There is a special SS calculator at SS.gov where you can put in zeros for remaining years. Oh thanks, I found the calculator you mentioned, and it's $1562/month if I have it assume zero for 2022 onward and starting withdraws at 67. I'll call that more like $500/mo assuming it gets slashed (if it continues at all). It says $863 if I put withdraws at 62. Would not have guessed the difference is nearly 2x. Glad you found it. I'm in a similar position, 47 yo, 730k NW, 130k accessible now, rest @ 59.5 yo. Pension @ 50 for $980 mo, wait till 60, $1980 mo, no COLA $1644 SS @ 62 or @ 70 $2895 -- Zeros filled in rest of years. I'm trying to figure out how to retire/semi retire with minimal work form here out due to injury related mobility issues.
by Socal77
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: -----
Replies: 235
Views: 32952

Re: Early retirement plan advice (39yo, $880k, ~3.5% withdraw)

GerryL wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:45 pm
Extra Income should technically be $24k/yr with $2k/mo social security at 65 according to my social security statement, but I'm planning as if I'll only get half of that, at best.
At age 39 you aren't going to have a 35-year work history, which is what SS uses to calculate your benefit at full retirement age. Any year you don't have enough eligible income is set at $0. The statement you see at on the SS site estimating your benefit at FRA assumes that you will keep working. Oh, and 65 is not full retirement age.

Is that where you got your SS estimate?
There is a special SS calculator at SS.gov where you can put in zeros for remaining years.
by Socal77
Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

This is first hand info. My wife became disabled due to a sepsis infection she got during an outpatient visit at a hospital. From complications that resulted from the infection there was no way she could return to work. This made it so she couldn't handle the process of navigating the SSDI requirements, nor could I due other aspects of life at that time. This made hiring an attorney that specialized in this the right choice. She was approved on the first attempt. Frequently when people go through an event that requires them to apply for disability, the event also reduces their ability to navigate it successfully. Yes exactly. Thanks for your story and I hope you both are doing well considering... I've always innately had a very low toleran...
by Socal77
Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

This is first hand info. My wife became disabled due to a sepsis infection she got during an outpatient visit at a hospital. From complications that resulted from the infection there was no way she could return to work. This made it so she couldn't handle the process of navigating the SSDI requirements, nor could I due other aspects of life at that time. This made hiring an attorney that specialized in this the right choice. She was approved on the first attempt. Frequently when people go through an event that requires them to apply for disability, the event also reduces their ability to navigate it successfully. Yes exactly. Thanks for your story and I hope you both are doing well considering... I've always innately had a very low toleran...
by Socal77
Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

I feel the process would be streamlined if my PCP brings it up but I'm not one to put her in that position. OP, I’m sorry to hear that you’re going through this. I hope that this thread has been helpful in identifying potential options for income while you recover. You’ve mentioned your PCP in this process a couple of times, but I don’t think that anyone has responded to it yet. I would be extremely surprised if your PCP even reviewed your income options, let alone guided you through the process. While they may have some knowledge based on other patients, this is not their area of expertise. I’m sure that they would be willing to provide any supporting documentation that is needed, but I highly recommend that you be the one to start the pr...
by Socal77
Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

My wife worked for such an attorney for a while. She learned that virtually no one who applies for SS disability is approved for benefits the first time around. It seems that hiring an attorney is almost a necessity to get approved, and it can take years to happen even then. Right, and the sea of ambiguity about any of these options and how to apply for them pretty much deters me any way. I mean, who am I going to sue? I don't like the thought of suing anyway. I feel the process would be streamlined if my PCP brings it up but I'm not one to put her in that position. 1. There is a 5 month waiting period for disability payments from the SSA...you get paid in the six month of disability. 2. You need to research THOROUGHLY the SSA Disability i...
by Socal77
Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

In the social security system, it is possible to qualify for a closed period of disability. In other words, If a person becomes disabled due to illness or injury that renders that person unable to work, they may qualify for social security benefits. When they recover (in social security terms, they are able to engage in substantial gainful activity) the benefits would end. It’s not really what one might think of as “short term disability,” but the income could be helpful if one is unable to work for, say, 18 months or longer. I don’t know whether, if one receives benefits for a closed period, it affects the amount of benefits that may later be available in retirement. Google “social security disability lawyer.” It Is an area of practice th...
by Socal77
Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

Google “social security disability lawyer.” It Is an area of practice that runs on contingent fees, so you will not likely be charged to talk to someone about your situation. My wife worked for such an attorney for a while. She learned that virtually no one who applies for SS disability is approved for benefits the first time around. It seems that hiring an attorney is almost a necessity to get approved, and it can take years to happen even then. Right, and the sea of ambiguity about any of these options and how to apply for them pretty much deters me any way. I mean, who am I going to sue? I don't like the thought of suing anyway. I feel the process would be streamlined if my PCP brings it up but I'm not one to put her in that position. 1...
by Socal77
Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

Google “social security disability lawyer.” It Is an area of practice that runs on contingent fees, so you will not likely be charged to talk to someone about your situation. My wife worked for such an attorney for a while. She learned that virtually no one who applies for SS disability is approved for benefits the first time around. It seems that hiring an attorney is almost a necessity to get approved, and it can take years to happen even then. Right, and the sea of ambiguity about any of these options and how to apply for them pretty much deters me any way. I mean, who am I going to sue? I don't like the thought of suing anyway. I feel the process would be streamlined if my PCP brings it up but I'm not one to put her in that position.
by Socal77
Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

In the social security system, it is possible to qualify for a closed period of disability. In other words, If a person becomes disabled due to illness or injury that renders that person unable to work, they may qualify for social security benefits. When they recover (in social security terms, they are able to engage in substantial gainful activity) the benefits would end. It’s not really what one might think of as “short term disability,” but the income could be helpful if one is unable to work for, say, 18 months or longer. I don’t know whether, if one receives benefits for a closed period, it affects the amount of benefits that may later be available in retirement. Google “social security disability lawyer.” It Is an area of practice th...
by Socal77
Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

Does short term Social Security affect accrued benefit normal payments? Thanks Based on your username it is possible that you are a resident of California. California has a short term disability program called State Disability Insurance (SDI). It is an entirely separate program from the Federal Social Security program and California State Unemployment Program. Generally the California SDI program can pay benefits for up to the first 26 weeks that an individual is disabled. It comes in handy for short term disability situations. More information is available at https://www.edd.ca.gov/disability/ Yes, in socal currently. I moved away for about five years but have over 20 years good income payed into the state disability system/ I quit the jo...
by Socal77
Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

Thanks. I believe that download is what they meant. I know I can't do what I did for work before, but I doubt I'd qualify because I could probably do something else. Just not any time soon. Do you have short-term and/or long-term disability insurance (perhaps through an employer)? If so, start there. I'm still checking boxes for treatment from my doctor, but in the meantime will be unemployed until I can get a job that does not require any physical work. Pains me to write that because I was an otherwise very active person. Sorry to hear that. I was just guessing about all this because another administrator for the doctor's team told me to look into this "short term benefit at the social security website." You should reach out to ...
by Socal77
Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

The initial post confused me because Social Security specifically states: “No benefits are payable for short term disability.” If you mean permanent disability (but perhaps “short term” because you are approaching retirement age), I am no expert but I believe that normally one transfers from Disability benefits to retirement benefits at full retirement age (FRA). Both Disability and Retirement are based on the same calculation so the benefit should remain the same at time of transition. Again, I am hoping that others “jump in” with more expertise. I am 47 and looking into the possibility of using short term disability while resituating myself due to chronic hip injury that is inoperable due to joint condition, replacement deemed within dec...
by Socal77
Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

The initial post confused me because Social Security specifically states: “No benefits are payable for short term disability.” If you mean permanent disability (but perhaps “short term” because you are approaching retirement age), I am no expert but I believe that normally one transfers from Disability benefits to retirement benefits at full retirement age (FRA). Both Disability and Retirement are based on the same calculation so the benefit should remain the same at time of transition. Again, I am hoping that others “jump in” with more expertise. I am 47 and looking into the possibility of using short term disability while resituating myself due to chronic hip injury that is inoperable due to joint condition, replacement deemed within dec...
by Socal77
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Re: Short Term Social Security

David Jay wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:01 pm What do you mean by "short term Social Security"? That is not a term in common use here on BH. Do you mean SS disability?
Yes, that must be the correct terminology.
by Socal77
Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Social Security
Replies: 31
Views: 2850

Short Term Social Security

Does short term Social Security affect accrued benefit normal payments?

Thanks
by Socal77
Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could Mortgages Be Causing Inflation?
Replies: 28
Views: 3733

Re: Could Mortgages Be Causing Inflation?

Socal77 wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:15 am I don't know but count yourself lucky if you had a 30 year fixed in the last decade or so because those of us without are getting financially dominated and spanked with rising rents. I'm very unhappy with this.

OER has and will make actually inflation rates above target for some time it seems.
by Socal77
Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could Mortgages Be Causing Inflation?
Replies: 28
Views: 3733

Re: Could Mortgages Be Causing Inflation?

I don't know but count yourself lucky if you had a 30 year fixed in the last decade or so because those of us without are getting financially dominated and spanked with rising rents.

OER has and will make actually inflation rates above target for some time it seems.
by Socal77
Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)
Replies: 152
Views: 13139

Re: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:14 pm
Socal77 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:53 pm People, for all practical purposes a factor has to be properly identified and timed. So it should be obvious that seeking alpha from factors is a losers game, especially with the behavioral component muddying the waters.
Nope.

Factors are robust. Different metrics for Value all work.

Timing is not needed at all - in fact, timing doesn't work. You must stay invested in factors like you do the market.
:-)
by Socal77
Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)
Replies: 152
Views: 13139

Re: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)

People, for all practical purposes a factor has to be properly identified and timed. So it should be obvious that seeking alpha from factors is a losers game, especially with the behavioral component muddying the waters. With some pragmatic and unbiased research, education, and life experience, I have learned that unknown edges (the real factors) are kept that way as long as possible in effort to seek that personal rent. Will you share your rent with me? How about the recent residential estate factor? You're just trying to identify capital flows with myriad complexly connected variables, not only behavioral, but institutional. Does anyone actually feel the complexity? In my opinion, the only person, maybe two that I can identify who have le...
by Socal77
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)
Replies: 152
Views: 13139

Re: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:35 pm
Reputable guys like Merriman and Swedroe feel that even if known, they don't get arbitraged away, just like the equity risk premium doesn't.
Again IMHO,

This is due to the Theory of Asset Demand and our inflationary based economy and financial system.

A dollar, or capital if it is to be invested (because we are incentivized to because of an inflation based economy and financial system) will compete against all other assets that respond to again, a well engineered inflationary based economy.

We have to put those dollars somewhere based on those incentives. We base our whole financial life biased by these ideas intertemporally and by personal risk/reward profiles.
by Socal77
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)
Replies: 152
Views: 13139

Re: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)

IMHO, factors do not exist. They get arbitraged away just like anything else and you will not be able to time them properly over a lifetime of investing. Yup, you're absolutely correct. While I think he may be correct, why do you believe this with such certainty? I personally don't factor invest because I don't have conviction that it'll be successful. I wouldn't be able to stick with it and really just don't have an interest in it. Reputable guys like Merriman and Swedroe feel that even if known, they don't get arbitraged away, just like the equity risk premium doesn't. Just curious on your thoughts and the thoughts of Socal77. Because of human behavior and that the future is unknown, including the efficient market hypothesis. Individual ...
by Socal77
Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)
Replies: 152
Views: 13139

Re: Why doesn’t everybody factor invest? (If it has better risk-adjusted returns, then why not?)

IMHO, factors do not exist.

They get arbitraged away just like anything else and you will not be able to time them properly over a lifetime of investing.
by Socal77
Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The I Bond Manifesto
Replies: 425
Views: 74983

Re: The I Bond Manifesto

smectym wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:19 pm
Socal77 wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:34 pm What is the penalty if you need the money back before 12 months or less?
A very good question, and per Treasury Direct, “the minimum holding period is one year.” So it’s not a matter of paying a penalty to exit before 12 months or less. If you regret the buy within year one, your penalty is having to wait the full year—before then paying 3 months prior interest to exit.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/pr ... glance.htm
Thanks
by Socal77
Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The I Bond Manifesto
Replies: 425
Views: 74983

Re: The I Bond Manifesto

SnowBog wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:16 pm
Socal77 wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:34 pm What is the penalty if you need the money back before 12 months or less?
Not possible... (With rare exceptions like a national emergency being declared.)
SnowBog wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:57 am
Socal77 wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:55 am Did I read correctly that people who bough these back when the fixed rate on the coupon was 3.4% are now receiving that fixed rate plus the current inflation rate of 7.12% for a total APR of 10.52%?
Yes
Thanks
by Socal77
Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The I Bond Manifesto
Replies: 425
Views: 74983

Re: The I Bond Manifesto

Did I read correctly that people who bough these back when the fixed rate on the coupon was 3.4% are now receiving that fixed rate plus the current inflation rate of 7.12% for a total APR of 10.52%?
by Socal77
Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The I Bond Manifesto
Replies: 425
Views: 74983

Re: The I Bond Manifesto

What is the penalty if you need the money back before 12 months or less?
by Socal77
Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years [Sell bonds?]
Replies: 307
Views: 49183

Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

I’m worried about high inflation because my pension will only be COLA’d to a maximum of 3% annually. 20% in three years is double that, so it could be really long term painful! What can I do though, short of continuing to work? I think I’ll just have to pretend JS never said that! Match a mortgage payment to the pension. Funny, we have done that unintentionally, having recently bought a house. It doesn’t seem like the solution you’re suggesting though because we’re already compartmentalizing the advantage with rising rents. But the good news: I’ve found out if inflation subsides back to target the 3% COLA will continue until it’s caught up. Someday we’ll see how that works out. I'm not sure I follow the compartmentalizing with rising rents...
by Socal77
Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years [Sell bonds?]
Replies: 307
Views: 49183

Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

I’m worried about high inflation because my pension will only be COLA’d to a maximum of 3% annually. 20% in three years is double that, so it could be really long term painful! What can I do though, short of continuing to work? I think I’ll just have to pretend JS never said that! Match a mortgage payment to the pension. Funny, we have done that unintentionally, having recently bought a house. It doesn’t seem like the solution you’re suggesting though because we’re already compartmentalizing the advantage with rising rents. But the good news: I’ve found out if inflation subsides back to target the 3% COLA will continue until it’s caught up. Someday we’ll see how that works out. I'm not sure I follow the compartmentalizing with rising rents...
by Socal77
Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are we doing?
Replies: 48
Views: 5766

Re: How are we doing?

It's not how much you have, it's how much you desire.
by Socal77
Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years [Sell bonds?]
Replies: 307
Views: 49183

Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

tetractys wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 7:07 pm I’m worried about high inflation because my pension will only be COLA’d to a maximum of 3% annually. 20% in three years is double that, so it could be really long term painful! What can I do though, short of continuing to work? I think I’ll just have to pretend JS never said that!
Match a mortgage payment to the pension.