Search found 163 matches

by overthought
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wouldn't geometric sharpe/sortino ratios be more accurate?
Replies: 3
Views: 313

Re: Wouldn't geometric sharpe/sortino ratios be more accurate?

Yes, this always puzzled me as well. I did a quick Web search, and on this thread , I found a concise answer that I think makes a lot of sense. The correct answer is "arithmetic mean, because Bill Sharpe says so". He invented the thing, and he's pretty clear on which one he was looking at. If you u...
by overthought
Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wouldn't geometric sharpe/sortino ratios be more accurate?
Replies: 3
Views: 313

Wouldn't geometric sharpe/sortino ratios be more accurate?

Random mathematical musings: We know that (arithmetic) average annual returns aren't a good way to think about overall performance of an investment, because a 90% drawdown is a catastrophic loss of value (9 out of every 10 dollars went *poof*) while 90% gain only means we have not quite $2 for every...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 Finance is Free
Replies: 3
Views: 702

Re: M1 Finance is Free

Interesting... does it give a way to coordinate a portfolio over multiple accounts? Or do you have to choose a separate portfolio for each account? Edit: Also might be worth pointing out that you can transfer cash out to your bank for free, but they charge $100 per in-kind ACAT transfer to other bro...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to save cash over 5 years.
Replies: 35
Views: 2974

Re: Where to save cash over 5 years.

I chopped down your full paragraph here just to make a point. ...$10k @ 1.5% for 5 years yields $773 interest. ...taking a 3% drop at the end is $709 gain. ...then the gain drops to just $605 . I don't think someone investing 5 figures over 5 years for an undetermined purchase should care about pos...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to save cash over 5 years.
Replies: 35
Views: 2974

Re: Where to save cash over 5 years.

If we consider CDs, isn't the 5 year rate more like 2.25. I just checked, I'm even seeing 2.4% for 5 year CD. Does that make CDs better than everything else? i-bonds, Vanguard total bond fund, tax exempt funds (both short-term and intermediate term)? OP plans to trickle in the funds, $500/mo. That ...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to save cash over 5 years.
Replies: 35
Views: 2974

Re: Where to save cash over 5 years.

Looking at quarterly rolling returns that regularly dip down a few %, I wouldn't want to put short-term savings in that fund. It would be annoying to have to wait out a drawdown before making the planned purchase. OP said he was in 4-5 years, unless I misread. Right. If you look at 5-year rolling r...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to save cash over 5 years.
Replies: 35
Views: 2974

Re: Where to save cash over 5 years.

Here are the 12-month returns of the mutual fund FBIDX over the last 30 years. As you can see it's pretty safe and, IMHO, a no brainer choice over a savings account or CDs. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=FBIDX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it good idea to buy yearly maintenance from HVAC company
Replies: 14
Views: 1448

Re: Is it good idea to buy yearly maintenance from HVAC company

My take: If they're pushing it, it's because it makes them money. The harder they're pushing, the more money they think they will make off you. Take a hard look at (a) what you could (and are willing to) do yourself and (b) what it would cost to bring in somebody to fix the problem without the contr...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?
Replies: 30
Views: 3123

Re: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?

A side note. I don't know what Roger Gibson says in his book about a "rebalancing dividend." This is a frequently debated topic here in the forum. I am just going to state the two sides of the debate. I won't go into depth. I believe #2 below. 1) Some people seem to believe that rebalancing can act...
by overthought
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 29
Views: 2538

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

I'm interested in hearing what people think the large-scale effect of indexing will be in the long run. Stabilization perhaps in the short run----but in the long run? Or if anyone has seen anything written on this (that's not penned by self-interested and threatened WS investment-guys). My pipe dre...
by overthought
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 goals - should I build cash reserves or pay down debt?
Replies: 4
Views: 477

Re: 2018 goals - should I build cash reserves or pay down debt?

I think you're very right to be worried about the emergency fund. With minimum monthly expenses of $3800 and estimated 6-12 weeks to land new employment, you could easily blow through your $8000 EF before landing the new job (and don't forget to add in the extra 2-4 week delay from starting until yo...
by overthought
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: best cashback credit card ?
Replies: 47
Views: 3567

Re: best cashback credit card ?

We use American Express Blue Cash Preferred for Groceries (6% back) and Gasoline (3% back). Discover for the occasional 5% categories. Chase Sapphire Reserved for dining out & travel related expenses (3x miles) USAA for everything else (2.5%). Is USAA really 2.5%? The web site seems to advertise on...
by overthought
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3454

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Mr. Bogle made a speech in Chicago in 2002 which included his thoughts about small-cap and value stocks. I was there and learned a lot. This is the link: The Telltale Chart That was a great talk, thank you very much for the link. Too bad it's not easier to lay hands on those telltale charts he was ...
by overthought
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3454

Small cap value vs. total market?

Hi all, I'm trying to wrap my head around the utility of a small cap value tilt. Some lazy portfolios use SCV, others use total US market, some even use both. I keep reading comments to the effect of "size factor is overstated" and "value factor is missing in action," but every time I try to backtes...
by overthought
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 232
Views: 32466

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

AMD and SRPT are causing #ref! errors in the spreadsheet?
by overthought
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lowering real estate agent costs when selling?
Replies: 34
Views: 2594

Re: Lowering real estate agent costs when selling?

Somebody needs to open the door and let them walk through the house. 1% listing agent fee is about $9000. That's fine. 3% buyers agent fee is $27,000, and I think that's too high. Can I just offer 1.5% to the buyer's agent? You can negotiate with any agent/brokerage. Asking is free. They can declin...
by overthought
Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How secure is Capital One 360 "SwiftID" ?
Replies: 0
Views: 176

How secure is Capital One 360 "SwiftID" ?

While looking for ways to boost my Capital One 360 account security, I ran across their SwiftID service. It seems to work the same way as SMS or voice verification, but using push notifications. How secure a solution is this in practice? I would guess it's better than SMS/voice because those are vul...
by overthought
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lowering real estate agent costs when selling?
Replies: 34
Views: 2594

Re: Lowering real estate agent costs when selling?

OP .... irrespective of the cost, do you believe you need a real estate agent to effectively sell your home? Somebody needs to open the door and let them walk through the house. 1% listing agent fee is about $9000. That's fine. 3% buyers agent fee is $27,000, and I think that's too high. Can I just...
by overthought
Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best fund(s) for Special Needs Trust
Replies: 17
Views: 1247

Re: Best fund(s) for Special Needs Trust

... balances of $50,000 and $60,000. Lawyer is setting up a Special Needs Trust for each of them. The rules of the trust are really bad, in my opinion... 3% per year management fee ... Trust invests funds as they see fit, we would have no input. Are these terms as bad as I think they are? No expert...
by overthought
Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family Finance Meeting Agenda
Replies: 23
Views: 2262

Re: Family Finance Meeting Agenda

We meet at irregular intervals, typically if there's a change in expenses or income, or if one of us has an idea of something to we'd like to change about our existing financial strategy. Early on, there was a significant friction about how to balance short term savings vs. retirement vs. paying dow...
by overthought
Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SUV Analysis Paralysis
Replies: 14
Views: 1290

Re: SUV Analysis Paralysis

Taking a step back, you said this vehicle will be 100% for business. I'd ask: what makes an SUV attractive for your business in the first place? An SUV makes business sense in one of three situations: * You need serious towing capability while seating 3+ people comfortably * You need want a status ...
by overthought
Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust or Will
Replies: 14
Views: 1584

Re: Trust or Will

We have a living trust plus a "pour-over" will that assigns everything to the trust at death. Reasons for this setup: - Any property we deed to the trust stays out of probate. Remaining property has a very simple probate. - Trustee has specific instructions on how to care for our minor children and ...
by overthought
Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SUV Analysis Paralysis
Replies: 14
Views: 1290

Re: SUV Analysis Paralysis

Taking a step back, you said this vehicle will be 100% for business. I'd ask: what makes an SUV attractive for your business in the first place? An SUV makes business sense in one of three situations: * You need serious towing capability while seating 3+ people comfortably * You need want a status s...
by overthought
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Yubikey questions
Replies: 17
Views: 1661

Re: Fidelity Yubikey questions

a bad actor could create a convincing fake website and get you to enter your username, password, and second-factor, which they could harvest and use to compromise your account. In the 30 seconds for which the Symantec VIP code is valid (less than that, really, because it takes time to enter)? I gue...
by overthought
Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How will i be taxed when switching jobs?
Replies: 25
Views: 1422

Re: How will i be taxed when switching jobs?

Remember that if you contribute to a 401k or HSA, those limits apply to YOU, across all employers for the year. If you already max your 401k at the first job January-June, you can't contribute any more at the new job that starts in July. In my experience, 401(k) administrators do a reasonably good ...
by overthought
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How will i be taxed when switching jobs?
Replies: 25
Views: 1422

Re: How will i be taxed when switching jobs?

The amount of withholding tax is determined by how you fill out your w-4 with the new employer. You can add a couple of phantom dependents to reduce withholding as long as your 1040 is done correctly. Or you can wait for the refund. Your w-4 can be redone/fine-tuned throughout the year to control w...
by overthought
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion now or January?
Replies: 3
Views: 366

Re: Roth conversion now or January?

livesoft wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:10 pm
It depends on the taxes you would pay on the conversion in 2017 and in 2018. What would be the taxes in both cases?
Oh, that's a good point... I'll almost certainly be in a higher tax bracket in 2018. Better to convert now.
by overthought
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Yubikey questions
Replies: 17
Views: 1661

Re: Fidelity Yubikey questions

a bad actor could create a convincing fake website and get you to enter your username, password, and second-factor, which they could harvest and use to compromise your account. In the 30 seconds for which the Symantec VIP code is valid (less than that, really, because it takes time to enter)? I gue...
by overthought
Sat Dec 02, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion now or January?
Replies: 3
Views: 366

Roth conversion now or January?

I have non-deductible tIRA contributions from 2016 and 2017 (maxed out), and plan to max out the tIRA in 2018 as well (again, non-deductible). Is there any benefit to performing a Roth conversion now (for 2016/2017) and again in January (for 2018), or is it simpler to do everything in 2018? Or, as I...
by overthought
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1736

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

As a long term investor I’m struggling as to why I would want to look at 3 month rolling returns. I don't know why 3-month rolling returns would be helpful, but 1- or 5-year rolling returns could be useful for: * Comparing a newer fund vs. an older one when the charts don't line up nicely * Detecti...
by overthought
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i bonds purchase questions
Replies: 7
Views: 903

Re: i bonds purchase questions

... All i-bonds are issued on the date of the most recent preceding interest rate announcement , which happens in Nov and May every year. For example, the ones I bought on Nov 12 or so have issue dates of 1 Nov 2017. I'm afraid that's incorrect. Savings bonds are issued on a monthly basis. As long ...
by overthought
Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i bonds purchase questions
Replies: 7
Views: 903

Re: i bonds purchase questions

Planning to buy some i bonds from Treasury Direct. I have couple technical questions: 1. If I link my external saving account to Treasury Direct and buy $10,000 i bonds, will the $10,000 comes out from from savings account as one single transfer or will it come out as multiple amounts say two $5,00...
by overthought
Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mega backdoor - rollover to Roth IRA question
Replies: 8
Views: 689

Re: Mega backdoor - rollover to Roth IRA question

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:33 pm
overthought wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:22 pm

Do you mean, not recommended to increase payroll withholding to cover the expected taxes?
Withheld from the rollover.
Oh, eww. Definitely don't do that! Custodian to custodian or bust.
by overthought
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mega backdoor - rollover to Roth IRA question
Replies: 8
Views: 689

Re: Mega backdoor - rollover to Roth IRA question

If you're planning to roll the earnings into the Roth, then the tax is due in the year you complete the rollover. I'm not the OP, but on topic. Do you pay the tax at the time of the conversion, or at year's end/when doing tax return? It's included in ordinary income when you do your taxes. You can ...
by overthought
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on best approach to deleveraging...
Replies: 6
Views: 744

Re: Advice on best approach to deleveraging...

The rental property mortgage has a fixed rate for 30 years. The primary home is fixed until 2023, then variable. Maybe I should pay down the remaining rental property mortgage over the next year to take advantage of using up some of the suspended depreciation losses and tax benefits. Then I can con...
by overthought
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Open a 401k in 2017? Or wait for 2018?
Replies: 7
Views: 357

Re: Open a 401k in 2017? Or wait for 2018?

I know this is a very silly question, or, at least, I think it is: I have an IRA fully funded in 2017 and for the last few years. After speaking with my tax person, we identified a Solo 401k as a vehicle for me to save more money, tax free, going forward. My tax guy mentioned that I could start fun...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on best approach to deleveraging...
Replies: 6
Views: 744

Re: Advice on best approach to deleveraging...

The personal residence has better loan-to-value ratio (lower risk of going underwater in a recession), generates no income (so sinking money into it just ties up equity sooner), and has a lower interest rate. Plus, taxes avoided later are worth less than taxes avoided today. Everything seems to favo...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broker account security compendium thread
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Broker account security compendium thread

. . . the attacker conveniently has access to the VIP app as well, which again makes it kind of useless (they can use it to disable 2FA after recovering the account). . . . You have to call Fidelity to have the Symantec VIP token removed from your account on their servers. If you delete the app fro...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheritance question: Inheriting something you aren't supposed to sell
Replies: 22
Views: 2770

Re: Inheritance question: Inheriting something you aren't supposed to sell

I have this vague memory that there is a specific legal term (encumbrance?) for cases where a will forbids the beneficiary from selling inherited property or otherwise restricts their ability to deal with the inheritance as they see fit... and that the practice has been illegal/unenforceable for a l...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broker account security compendium thread
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Broker account security compendium thread

+1 for Symantec VIP access. I like the concept in general, but it seems like a real problem if somebody steals your phone that is logged into email and has the app installed as well? Then they could password reset you even if two-factor account recovery is enabled. "All" of the following would need...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broker account security compendium thread
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Broker account security compendium thread

I updated the original post to give more complete information about brokers (in particular, 2FA support), but there are still a lot of missing pieces. In particular, I don't know what account recovery procedures any broker uses (might require phone calls to find out?), nor am I sure which brokers ha...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 133
Views: 12236

Re: Vanguard To Introduce First Actively Managed ETFs With Suite Of Factor Funds

tetractys wrote:
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:52 am
Most interesting I think, is mention of this Vanguard paper:
https://americas.vanguard.com/docs/lite ... -guide.pdf
I like how the bottom of each page states:
For Institutional or Accredited Investor Use Only. Not For Public Distribution.

8-)
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 484
Views: 45135

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

I received an email from TDA today stating: TD Ameritrade now offers 296 commission‑free exchange‑traded funds (ETFs)—the most of any brokerage! A quick summary of the list: 44 iShares 61 First Trust 5 JP Morgan 27 Power Shares 9 ProShares 4 QuantShares 74 SPDR 72 Wisdom Tree I kind of wonder if any...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broker account security compendium thread
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Broker account security compendium thread

* Make friends with the OP (mark) at a bar Seems like a lot of problems start with this sentence... maybe a good place to start if you're trying to tighten up opsec... * Locate his cell phone, place his finger on the screen and open the phone* One of many reasons it's a bad idea to authenticate bas...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Egregious security vulnerability in newer Intel computers -- patch immediately
Replies: 18
Views: 2210

Re: Egregious security vulnerability in newer Intel computers -- patch immediately

Over the last week or two, firmware vulnerabilities were disclosed that affect basically every Intel-based computer shipped in the last several years. Worse, the vulnerabilities are remotely exploitable, meaning baddies can do it from over the internet (normally they would need physical access to y...
by overthought
Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Egregious security vulnerability in newer Intel computers -- patch immediately
Replies: 18
Views: 2210

Egregious security vulnerability in newer Intel computers -- patch immediately

Over the last week or two, firmware vulnerabilities were disclosed that affect basically every Intel-based computer shipped in the last several years. Worse, the vulnerabilities are remotely exploitable, meaning baddies can do it from over the internet (normally they would need physical access to yo...
by overthought
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broker account security compendium thread
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Broker account security compendium thread

the actual problem... is learning how to interact with the web safely. Problem is, I'm not sure it can ever be fully "safe" to interact with the web. Reputable web sites serve malicious ads far too often, for example, and are even compromised directly with distressing regularity. If zero-day attack...
by overthought
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broker account security compendium thread
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Broker account security compendium thread

Everything I'm seeing listed there so far is virtual. Remember paper insecurity is still a thing too (probably how my identity was stolen last year), so crosscut shred all discarded papers, statements, and printouts. Yup, it's true. I'm less worried about physical security because (a) it's a better...
by overthought
Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broker account security compendium thread
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Broker account security compendium thread

[*] I've enrolled my Fidelity 401(k) account in voice print technology, but it's unclear how that feature is used. Supposedly it replaces account password and PIN, but I still have to dial my password whenever I call in for something. Maybe that's a good thing (multiple layers of defense). Sign up ...
by overthought
Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broker account security compendium thread
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Broker account security compendium thread

2FA (two-factor authentication) is just about the best you can do right now to lock down your online accounts. Not all 2FA is the same though; some use your text-enabled phone number or e-mail and others use "authenticator" apps or devices that you must consult for a generated pin. I thought 2FA wa...