Search found 201 matches

by overthought
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1044
Views: 184565

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

TD Ameritrade will close the account on total transfer and cut off access to it, so be aware of that. Others like Fidelity won't close the account and you can keep using it, even transfer more back in. Good to know. I'm trying to think if there's any reason for me to leave 10 bucks over there to ke...
by overthought
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 4508

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

4) Most folks rent the house (A) one level below the house (B) that they are willing to buy. Then, they use the cost of renting (B) to justify their purchase of (B). So, for most folks, the calculation is a fraud. They were never to rent (B) under any circumstances. They only use renting (B) to jus...
by overthought
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U-Haul Investors Club
Replies: 14
Views: 3084

Re: U-Haul Investors Club

My impression is the same with U-Haul. Why can't they borrow from a bank? A quick eyeball of their 10k shows that they're already eating through nearly all of their cash flow with lease and loan payments. Also, most of their loans are variable rate. Interest rates ticking upward might become a prob...
by overthought
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the structure problems with whole life insurance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1677

Re: What are the structure problems with whole life insurance?

Someone pitched me on whole life insurance... as a way to invest tax free. When I came to these boards to do some research I found that whole life gets such an icy reception that actively managed equity funds look beloved by comparison. Now I am wondering what the fatal flaw with whole life is. Thi...
by overthought
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH With SpecID If Bought Within 30 Days Before Harvesting
Replies: 20
Views: 1743

Re: TLH With SpecID If Bought Within 30 Days Before Harvesting

If you sell all shares bought in the past 30 days, you cannot have a wash sale, because you do not have any replacement shares bought in the past 30 days. Fairmark says that an IRS ruling does say that you have a wash sale in the following situation: Buy 100 shares on 1/17. Buy 100 shares on 1/31. ...
by overthought
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 86
Views: 10952

Re: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]

I got lucky... I front-load my 401(k) and my provider took a whole week to process my 31 Jan paycheck. So instead of getting in at near-peak and promptly losing 10%, the contribution is only down 0.7% as of tonight 8-)
by overthought
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VPN for account security
Replies: 12
Views: 1821

Re: VPN for account security

I use free VPN client software on my ipad to secure communications when away from home. I enable it if i’m going to login to my account when on vacation or anytime away from my home. It encrypts all data before it leaves my device (ipad, pc, etc). I feel it’s better than any security scheme or VPN ...
by overthought
Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk
Replies: 52
Views: 6611

Re: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk

I must be missing something... If I sell a Jan 2019 call @ 315 strike and buy a Jan 2019 put @ 260 strike, then the worst case outcome is for the market to drop to $260, at which point my put is still worthless but I now owe $55/share to whoever exercises the call, on top of the $25/share depreciat...
by overthought
Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion dividend hiccup
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Roth conversion dividend hiccup

Update: My 1099-R arrived today. If my math is not wrong, ABALX shares converted at $27.054, which is very close to the ex-dividend closing price of $27.09. So it would appear that either the phone rep completely misled me, or the system did some year-end fixup. Either way, it appears no double taxa...
by overthought
Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk
Replies: 52
Views: 6611

Re: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk

I prefer a simple, transparent insurance policy. Put the entire investment into the SP500, e.g. buy SPY. Insure annually by buying one-year Puts, current prices: 0% downwards acceptable: cost is 5.2% 5% downwards acceptable: cost is 3.7% 10% downwards acceptable: cost is 2.7% You are going to be pa...
by overthought
Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 Finance - now Free. Great way to rebalance
Replies: 49
Views: 6760

Re: M1 Finance - now Free. Great way to rebalance

Does M1 Financing automatically rebalance if your allocation gets far from where you want it? Call them and ask them specifically your questions and what you are after and what it costs for you to do what you want to do since you are considering going over to M1 Their web site explained somewhere t...
by overthought
Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk
Replies: 52
Views: 6611

Re: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk

I prefer a simple, transparent insurance policy. Put the entire investment into the SP500, e.g. buy SPY. Insure annually by buying one-year Puts, current prices: 0% downwards acceptable: cost is 5.2% 5% downwards acceptable: cost is 3.7% 10% downwards acceptable: cost is 2.7% You are going to be pa...
by overthought
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No more TDA Apex?
Replies: 19
Views: 2445

Re: No more TDA Apex?

I just spoke to TDA and Apex is NOT discontinued. I think it's just they redesigned their website and it no longer shows the little word "Apex" wherever it used to. I had Apex status and called to confirm and they said I still have it, which agrees with the lack of fees I've been charged for variou...
by overthought
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing, am I on the right track?
Replies: 25
Views: 1981

Re: New to investing, am I on the right track?

Current Portfolio: Taxable 7% cash (for investing) 3% JPMorgan Investor Growth A (ONGAX) (1.02) His 401k (ROTH) 7% T. Rowe Price Retirement 2050 (TRRMX) (.74) 7% MFS Value R3 (MEIHX) (.84) 6% T. ROWE PRICE BLUE CHIP GROWTH TRUST T2 (TRBCX) (.72) 2% T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth (RPMGX) (.77) 1% T. R...
by overthought
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering PhD...but so much to consider...
Replies: 51
Views: 3964

Re: Considering PhD...but so much to consider...

My experience is that the PhD gives job stability---both in the sense of not losing jobs you wanted to keep and in finding new jobs quickly when you do decide to move on. But that strongly depends on the field: If the degree leaves you overqualified for your work then it can be a net negative when t...
by overthought
Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: COBRA alternative for 1 month? (it's $2,400 per month!)
Replies: 69
Views: 4267

Re: COBRA alternative for 1 month? (it's $2,400 per month!)

Since many employer plans seem to cover the employee/family until the end of the month of termination, maybe you should try to leave one employer well before the end of the month to have continued coverage. This. Old employer coverage is effective through end of the month employee leaves. New emplo...
by overthought
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Barclays Schiller CAPE ETN
Replies: 14
Views: 1337

Re: Barclays Schiller CAPE ETN

What do people think of the Shiller Barclay's CAPE ETN? ... It works by picking the 4 out of 9 sectors of the economy with the lowest CAPE and positive price momentum, basically an autopilot value investing strategy. ETNs are generally a bit shady, though, compared to ETFs or mutual funds. Specific...
by overthought
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pay Down Rental or Save for Down Payment?
Replies: 5
Views: 613

Re: Pay Down Rental or Save for Down Payment?

Mortgage – $136,269 Remaining @ 4.44% (Original $147,250 30/Yr fixed) Rented out generating ~$200/m positive cash What would the condo sell for today? I am not a real estate guru but that really isn't a lot of positive cash flow when you consider that your will have vacancies, maintenance cost(carp...
by overthought
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 155
Views: 14821

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

The kids' initials. Three tall kids (long): AMZN - Amazon SAGE - Sage Therapeutics HD - Home Depot Three short kids (short): ELGX - Endologix KFRC - Kforce JMBA - Jamba For my own convenience, a performance chart I realized today that I used the 2016 list originally linked, and that JMBA is not on ...
by overthought
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 155
Views: 14821

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

The kids' initials.

Three tall kids (long):
AMZN - Amazon
SAGE - Sage Therapeutics
HD - Home Depot

Three short kids (short):
ELGX - Endologix
KFRC - Kforce
JMBA - Jamba

For my own convenience, a performance chart
by overthought
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion dividend hiccup
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Roth conversion dividend hiccup

After many hassles and delays moving my tIRA from EJ to TDA (started 9 Nov), I was finally able to request my planned Roth conversion on 18 Dec. TDA processed the request 19 Dec, moving everything in kind to my waiting Roth IRA account. So far so good. Then on 20 Dec, the mutual funds that came in ...
by overthought
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion dividend hiccup
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Roth conversion dividend hiccup

Hard to follow....but it sounds to me like you still had money in the tIRA on 12/31. If so, you'll need to pro-rate the Roth conversion you did on 12/19. Yeah, this whole thing is super annoying in pretty much every possible way. I'll have to prorate on both 2017 and 2018 taxes now. From now on I'l...
by overthought
Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion dividend hiccup
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Roth conversion dividend hiccup

Update: my account statement for December only states the number of shares transferred, not the value attributed for tax purposes. I'll have to wait for the actual 1099-R to come out at end of Jan. Meanwhile, SLYV also distributed year-end capital gains into my tIRA on 26 Dec. Checking the SPDR web ...
by overthought
Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Utah Vs. New York 529 - Which one and why?
Replies: 26
Views: 4986

Re: Utah Vs. New York 529 - Which one and why?

Utah for many years. NY was not very good many years ago. Texas resident. Is Utah better than Vanguard's Nevada? If so, why? I need to decide this today. No state tax benefit here. Utah seems a bit harder to open - seems they have to wait for a signature card to clear and then additional 3 business...
by overthought
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industries and companies do well in a rising interest rate environment?
Replies: 3
Views: 889

Re: Which industries and companies do well in a rising interest rate environment?

I'm far from the expert here, but I'll take a shot: I was reading the financial statements of a bank, and it made me think that not all banks will do well in a rising rate environment, especially those that have taken on huge amounts of exposure to mortgage debt. It does not make sense to loan to bo...
by overthought
Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home loan calculations - 15 year vs 30 year
Replies: 8
Views: 1004

Re: Home loan calculations - 15 year vs 30 year

+1 runner3081 AND most people do not stay in their home for 15 or 30 years. The difference between the interest paid in the first 7 years (longer than most homeowners stay in their home) gives the 15 year loan an ROI of serious money (back in the 1980's 51%, the last time I did the calculation in 2...
by overthought
Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Returns Problem
Replies: 14
Views: 1963

Re: High Returns Problem

I'm not seeing any emergency fund in your list of assets (unless you count the $10k taxable, but that's only 2.5 months worth). The LLC is a real risk (for the reasons others have outlined), so you'd want to temper that risk with a large cushion of stable resources that could see you through a rough...
by overthought
Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 Finance
Replies: 11
Views: 2804

Re: M1 Finance

The AUM fees appear to be completely gone at this point. How do they make $$?? From their web site : How Is It Possible For M1 To Be Free? Digital First. Unlike legacy financial institutions, M1’s digital-first structure minimizes cost. Single Trading Window. We bulk Buys and Sells in a single dail...
by overthought
Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 93
Views: 25662

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

If you work your way up to 31 funds, then you can call it the Baskins/Robbins All-Flavors Portfolio. 8-) Jokes aside, I bet we're no more than 5-10 years away from being able to "construct" our own custom portfolio with infinite amounts of very small allocations (fractional shares) to many asset cl...
by overthought
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 8095

Re: Saving for the crash

I found this article quite insightful. tl;dr: Cash is a pure drag because during good times it doesn't grow, and during bad times you can't reasonably keep enough cash around to truly "protect" yourself (in the sense of being able to live off the cash cushion... especially when things can easily go ...
by overthought
Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 6040

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

1) "Geometric mean" is basically but not exactly the same thing as "CAGR" (Compound average growth rate)* so if you see anything reported as CAGR, that's the honest, fair number. The article, incidentally, mixes up the two concepts. What's the difference? The resulting numbers should be the same. S...
by overthought
Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 6040

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

An interesting proof: Proof without Words: The Arithmetic Mean-Geometric Mean Inequality , from the Mathematical Association of America. Download the PDF and look at the picture. I get the picture and follow the first equation. I'm missing a simple concept, as the 2nd equation is a bit unclear to m...
by overthought
Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 6040

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

1) "Geometric mean" is basically but not exactly the same thing as "CAGR" (Compound average growth rate)* so if you see anything reported as CAGR, that's the honest, fair number. The article, incidentally, mixes up the two concepts. What's the difference? The resulting numbers should be the same. S...
by overthought
Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 58819

GOP tax reform: FIFO rule in or out?

Now that the tax bill has passed, I'm having trouble determining whether the senate's proposed FIFO rule for sale of shares was part of the final deal. An article at the Motley Fool suggests the proposed change was ultimately discarded from the combined bill, but it didn't cite any sources and my Go...
by overthought
Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion dividend hiccup
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Roth conversion dividend hiccup

There is no way what you write is true. All the evidence I have access to suggests I cannot avoid being double taxed at this point. If you disagree, please feel free to point out specific facts I have incorrectly stated, or specific actions I should take to correct errors that have been committed.
by overthought
Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion dividend hiccup
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Roth conversion dividend hiccup

You will see that there is no way for you to pay taxes twice. Wrong. I just finished a long phone call with a TDA IRA rep. The conversion is recorded in their system with the 18 Dec closing value of $28.22/share. The closing value on 19 Dec was $27.09, after a dividend/gain distribution of $1.07/sh...
by overthought
Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion dividend hiccup
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Roth conversion dividend hiccup

Update: It turns out the dividend record date was 19 Dec, to be paid out on 20 Dec. Now I really don't know how to account for this...
by overthought
Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion dividend hiccup
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Roth conversion dividend hiccup

After many hassles and delays moving my tIRA from EJ to TDA (started 9 Nov), I was finally able to request my planned Roth conversion on 18 Dec. TDA processed the request 19 Dec, moving everything in kind to my waiting Roth IRA account. So far so good. Then on 20 Dec, the mutual funds that came in f...
by overthought
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wouldn't geometric sharpe/sortino ratios be more accurate?
Replies: 3
Views: 564

Re: Wouldn't geometric sharpe/sortino ratios be more accurate?

Yes, this always puzzled me as well. I did a quick Web search, and on this thread , I found a concise answer that I think makes a lot of sense. The correct answer is "arithmetic mean, because Bill Sharpe says so". He invented the thing, and he's pretty clear on which one he was looking at. If you u...
by overthought
Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wouldn't geometric sharpe/sortino ratios be more accurate?
Replies: 3
Views: 564

Wouldn't geometric sharpe/sortino ratios be more accurate?

Random mathematical musings: We know that (arithmetic) average annual returns aren't a good way to think about overall performance of an investment, because a 90% drawdown is a catastrophic loss of value (9 out of every 10 dollars went *poof*) while 90% gain only means we have not quite $2 for every...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 Finance is Free
Replies: 12
Views: 2623

Re: M1 Finance is Free

Interesting... does it give a way to coordinate a portfolio over multiple accounts? Or do you have to choose a separate portfolio for each account? Edit: Also might be worth pointing out that you can transfer cash out to your bank for free, but they charge $100 per in-kind ACAT transfer to other bro...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to save cash over 5 years.
Replies: 35
Views: 3961

Re: Where to save cash over 5 years.

I chopped down your full paragraph here just to make a point. ...$10k @ 1.5% for 5 years yields $773 interest. ...taking a 3% drop at the end is $709 gain. ...then the gain drops to just $605 . I don't think someone investing 5 figures over 5 years for an undetermined purchase should care about pos...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to save cash over 5 years.
Replies: 35
Views: 3961

Re: Where to save cash over 5 years.

If we consider CDs, isn't the 5 year rate more like 2.25. I just checked, I'm even seeing 2.4% for 5 year CD. Does that make CDs better than everything else? i-bonds, Vanguard total bond fund, tax exempt funds (both short-term and intermediate term)? OP plans to trickle in the funds, $500/mo. That ...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to save cash over 5 years.
Replies: 35
Views: 3961

Re: Where to save cash over 5 years.

Looking at quarterly rolling returns that regularly dip down a few %, I wouldn't want to put short-term savings in that fund. It would be annoying to have to wait out a drawdown before making the planned purchase. OP said he was in 4-5 years, unless I misread. Right. If you look at 5-year rolling r...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to save cash over 5 years.
Replies: 35
Views: 3961

Re: Where to save cash over 5 years.

Here are the 12-month returns of the mutual fund FBIDX over the last 30 years. As you can see it's pretty safe and, IMHO, a no brainer choice over a savings account or CDs. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=FBIDX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it good idea to buy yearly maintenance from HVAC company
Replies: 14
Views: 1727

Re: Is it good idea to buy yearly maintenance from HVAC company

My take: If they're pushing it, it's because it makes them money. The harder they're pushing, the more money they think they will make off you. Take a hard look at (a) what you could (and are willing to) do yourself and (b) what it would cost to bring in somebody to fix the problem without the contr...
by overthought
Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?
Replies: 30
Views: 3559

Re: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?

A side note. I don't know what Roger Gibson says in his book about a "rebalancing dividend." This is a frequently debated topic here in the forum. I am just going to state the two sides of the debate. I won't go into depth. I believe #2 below. 1) Some people seem to believe that rebalancing can act...
by overthought
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 30
Views: 3482

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

I'm interested in hearing what people think the large-scale effect of indexing will be in the long run. Stabilization perhaps in the short run----but in the long run? Or if anyone has seen anything written on this (that's not penned by self-interested and threatened WS investment-guys). My pipe dre...
by overthought
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 goals - should I build cash reserves or pay down debt?
Replies: 4
Views: 579

Re: 2018 goals - should I build cash reserves or pay down debt?

I think you're very right to be worried about the emergency fund. With minimum monthly expenses of $3800 and estimated 6-12 weeks to land new employment, you could easily blow through your $8000 EF before landing the new job (and don't forget to add in the extra 2-4 week delay from starting until yo...
by overthought
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: best cashback credit card ?
Replies: 48
Views: 6565

Re: best cashback credit card ?

We use American Express Blue Cash Preferred for Groceries (6% back) and Gasoline (3% back). Discover for the occasional 5% categories. Chase Sapphire Reserved for dining out & travel related expenses (3x miles) USAA for everything else (2.5%). Is USAA really 2.5%? The web site seems to advertise on...