Search found 13 matches

by CFK
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 163
Views: 14323

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

32 years old Emergency Fund/Short term investing goals: 20% Stocks, 80% bonds. Long term investment: 17.5% Total Stock Market (VTI) 17.5% Small Cap (VB) 17.5% Developed Markets (VEA) 17.5% Emerging Markets (VWO) 30% Intermediate Bonds (BIV) I change the allocation a little bit due to market pricing ...
by CFK
Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those with high savings rate: why?
Replies: 246
Views: 34365

Re: Those with high savings rate: why?

To become financially independent as soon as reasonably possible (without depriving myself or my family). To have extra funds for kids school, early retirement, capital for a business or real estate investment. Because I don't really love my job but it pays decent and I want to make hay while the s...
by CFK
Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those with high savings rate: why?
Replies: 246
Views: 34365

Re: Those with high savings rate: why?

My wife and I (early 30s) currently save a little more than we spend each month ($5-6k). We take nice vacations, eat out, do many of the things you aren't supposed to do. I don't feel like I've given up anything living "frugally" (or at least, more frugally than we could). We've managed with one car...
by CFK
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Systemic Risk in Ten Stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1625

Re: Systemic Risk in Ten Stocks?

Can "stock pickers" effectively create their own investment list that is likely to match the market's returns? And if so, can they do it with as few as ten stocks? The following wiki page summarizes some studies on this issue: Passively managing individual stocks TLDR: Probably want more than 10 st...
by CFK
Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Systemic Risk in Ten Stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1625

Re: Systemic Risk in Ten Stocks?

My prediction is that this will probably match the market's returns over a long enough period of time, but will have greater volatility. Over the past 14 years (for some reason PortfolioVisualizer only has Morgan Stanley back until March 1993) your CFK 10 has been destroyed by the S&P 500. (And rem...
by CFK
Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Systemic Risk in Ten Stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1625

Systemic Risk in Ten Stocks?

One thing that bothered me is that during the recent stock market nosedive, stocks seemed to move largely in line with one another. A second is that the DJIA - which has only thirty stocks - basically mirrors the returns of the SP 500. This is so even though many people on this board swear by the to...
by CFK
Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1486

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

Do as you want as it is your money, but whatever you are doing IS market timing as you are making guesses on valuations. Simple as that. You may be correct or you may be completely wrong. You may make a ton of money, but you may end up broke. If you have that fallback inheritance go for it, but if ...
by CFK
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1486

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

At a implementation level, you would want some bands so that you don't yo-yo around based on flucations. If the market alternated between 22 and 24, it makes no sense to be buying and selling. And of course you have to decide if you are doing the reallocations on a monthly, quarterly or yearly basi...
by CFK
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1486

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

I don't know about you but when I see CAPE10 numbers like in your original post, it is hard not to feel that they are overly fitted to recent US history and that makes me think they are very fragile with a high likelihood of being wrong about the future. I hear you. This is colored by recency, and ...
by CFK
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1486

Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

After reading the Intelligent Investor, I am thinking about switching from a set allocation of 80% stocks, 20% bonds, to a more dynamic allocation that would change slightly based on interest rates and the Schiller PE. I am thinking of something like the following: 1. If the Schiller PE is less than...
by CFK
Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and Dice
Replies: 40
Views: 3933

Re: Slice and Dice

I slice and dice to avoid the regret I know that i would feel when one asset class outperforms - in other words, to avoid performance chasing. My asset allocation - 17.5% Total Stock Market, 17.5% small cap, 17.5% Emerging Markets, 17.5% Developed Markets, 30% Bonds. Were I to invest only in total s...
by CFK
Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explanation of Investing Basics to Sister
Replies: 7
Views: 1000

Re: Explanation of Investing Basics to Sister

Thank you for the feedback! When I was in her position - finally working and with student loans paid off - two years ago, I knew nothing about finance and had no idea what to do with my savings. A colleague pointed me to this community; you have been great teachers. Thank you. As evident from my int...
by CFK
Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explanation of Investing Basics to Sister
Replies: 7
Views: 1000

Explanation of Investing Basics to Sister

Long time lurker, first time poster. I recently had a nice conversation with my sister about investing, and she asked if I could write some of the ideas down. I authored the following. I am looking for any feedback, particularly anything that is wrong, misleading, too much detail, too little detail,...