Search found 871 matches

by AlphaLess
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622594

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Looks like consumer staples have bounced back since mid-year, and I wouldn't be surprised if other defensive plays like health care are doing OK. Value stocks have held up OK. Consumer discretionaries are far off their highs right alongside technology, so there aren't any signs of a rotation there ...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: predatory lending
Replies: 6
Views: 850

Re: predatory lending

Good read. But the Nigerian prince scheme is obvious. Quote: "On the phone, the broker said that to qualify for a big loan, Doug would first have to accept a smaller amount and make a few payments as a tryout." "He sent over the paperwork for a cash advance, not a term loan—and included confessions ...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 332
Views: 36733

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I may be the only person in the world that feels this way but I need to express this emotion. I am just tired (maybe even exhausted by) of the stock market going up. The constant flow of gains makes me feel like I need to do something (change my AA, take some off the table, increase my equities, re...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1850

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

Anyone still buying bitcoin? I got caught up and bought some last Oct but quickly sold when I came to my senses. Anyone think bitcoin could have another rally in store or is the end? John McAfee has much at stake: https://bircoin.top/ Love that price prediction tracker: - prediction: $24K, - actual...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's in your Investor Policy Statement about Bear Markets?
Replies: 42
Views: 2219

Re: What's in your Investor Policy Statement about Bear Markets?

Judging by how many threads there are about market downturn, seems like a lot of people are panicking.

But still, we are only down like, what, 10%-11% from the top?
Not to mention that to reach that top, market had like a 50% rally from Nov 2016.
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1850

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

How can you "prop up" the price of Bitcoin on an open market, when all of the coins are constantly being 'counted' by miners around the world? The code is all open-source. This sounds like someone is looking for a complex answer when a simple one is more plausible: cryptocurrencies did not gain nea...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?
Replies: 72
Views: 7648

Re: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?

Tariffs. Ford is taking a $1B hit for example. Rising interest rates. Bond principal eroding. Falling oil prices. Throw in irrational comments made daily showing lack of understanding of the impact. Not intended to be a political statement, this is what is making the market gyrate wildly. Yup. 1. T...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?
Replies: 72
Views: 7648

Re: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?

I think the stock market has caught a virus. It could be a cold, with a few days of sneezing and a bit of coughing. Or it could be a full blown influenza, with severe pain in the joints and the bones, very high fever. Or god forbid, we have a mononucleosis, and this is going to last for a while. No ...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1850

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:57 pm
No! Say it ain’t so, Joe!! Propped up or was it artificially pumped before the dumping that followed? :twisted:
I think a lot of the 'visionaries' and the 'evangelists' sold their fake coins when bitcoin was in double digit thousands.
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1850

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

typical.investor wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:05 pm
So if Tether is issuing coins without real backing, or its backing is from dubious sources, then it would seem there could be real trouble.
The tether thing for sure sounds like scam.

How is tether going to back every fake coin with a US dollar?
By printing money?
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1850

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

The US stock market dropped -79% after the 1929 crash, but it took it three years to fall that far. Bitcoin did it in less than a year. The good news with compounded falls is that even if you fall another 79%, it is merely a 95% fall from the top. But if you fall another 79%, that is merely a 99.02...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1850

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

Anyone still buying bitcoin? I got caught up and bought some last Oct but quickly sold when I came to my senses. Anyone think bitcoin could have another rally in store or is the end? If you give me a working time machine, I can tell you for sure. But seriously, who knows. All I can say is that 2 ye...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1850

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

The virtual coins that only exists as bits on a hard drive are finally showing cracks. I don't fully understand it, but Bit Coin cash ledgered was forked off. That is a technical speak for making a copy and trying to create two of the same thing. Once forked off, each can have its own life. But appa...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622594

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Major indexes and intermediate bond funds are both essentially flat YTD. There hasn't been a flight-to-quality rotation this year. Looks more like a business cycle stage where markets rotate out of innovative growth stocks and into stocks more directly dependent on the average consumer. So if both ...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622594

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Bears are out in force.
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

So you're calling the idea silly, saying that you have empirical evidence to back up that view, then refusing to provide that evidence? That's a good way to support your argument. Don't provide any facts. I did not refuse to provide. Suppose you go to amazon website. You browse, you put something i...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:53 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:49 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:48 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:45 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:42 pm


Do you have empirical evidence to support that view?
Absolutely.
I await it.
Await what?
Your empirical evidence in support of your view that only buying longer maturity CDs if you are compensated at least 20 bps is a silly idea.
Then don't await.
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:48 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:45 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:42 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:10 pm
That is why saying that 'ONLY buy longer maturity if you are compensated 20 bps per year' is a SILLY idea.
Do you have empirical evidence to support that view?
Absolutely.
I await it.
Await what?
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:42 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:10 pm
That is why saying that 'ONLY buy longer maturity if you are compensated 20 bps per year' is a SILLY idea.
Do you have empirical evidence to support that view?
Absolutely.
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the U.S. stock market
Replies: 18
Views: 1787

Re: Shorting the U.S. stock market

buy put options on an s&p500 etf. Not as clear cut, as you will be also paying for volatility. Buy a put option and sell a call option of the same strike price and maturity. That will take out the volatility exposure and make it a pure short position. Why would you do that? - pay 2 spreads, and bui...
by AlphaLess
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

WanderingDoc wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:53 am

Then you must have a lot of problems with normal life :P
You called it.
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

I'm not saying they're right or wrong, just that markets are efficient, and there's a reason that 2-year notes are relatively less in demand than other maturities. I agree that markets are efficient. That is why saying that 'ONLY buy longer maturity if you are compensated 20 bps per year' is a SILL...
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High premiums on life insurance from financial advisor?
Replies: 13
Views: 890

Re: High premiums on life insurance from financial advisor?

My life insurance: - GLT20 (level term, 20 years) - $2MM, $202.65/mo premium - YRT (yearly renewable, i.e. rate goes up over time) - $1MM, $49.78/mo premium Wife life insurance: - GLT20 (level term, 20 years) - $1.25MM, $73.09/mo premium - YRT (yearly renewable, i.e. rate goes up over time) - $1MM,...
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FOMO and Closed Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 745

Re: FOMO and Closed Funds

If you want to experience FOMO, don't compare to the measly returns of funds. Look at what would have happened when you bought GOOG at the IPO, or AAPL when it was 18. Why stop there? Just think about if you could have an access to a working time machine, how much money you could make! - buy low, s...
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the U.S. stock market
Replies: 18
Views: 1787

Re: Shorting the U.S. stock market

MNGopher wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:53 pm
Why not just sell your position and buy whatever you think will do better.
What makes you think that:
a. He has any position to sell?
b. He thinks buying anything else would do better?
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622594

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

fortfun wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:01 pm
Seems like this has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone I know says the market is at its peak and it has to correct.
Wait, I am confused. Market can not be at its peak. It is 10% below the peak already.
Also, how does it 'correct'?
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the U.S. stock market
Replies: 18
Views: 1787

Re: Shorting the U.S. stock market

desafinado wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:46 pm
buy put options on an s&p500 etf.
Not as clear cut, as you will be also paying for volatility.
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the U.S. stock market
Replies: 18
Views: 1787

Re: Shorting the U.S. stock market

1. Short sell any ETF that tracks the SP.500, like SPY,
2. Buy any ETF that tracks the inverse, e.g., SH,
3. Buy any ETF that tracks the inverse, with leverage,
4. Sell SP.500 E-mini futures.
etc.
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

If trading and taxes are not an issue, you always invest at the steepest part of the curve. That needs a lot more precision, I know. But currently 2Yr is at that sweet spot (as anything beyond that gets something like 2-3 bps of additional yield premium per year of duration). 2 years is the sweet s...
by AlphaLess
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clark Howard - Sign Up For USPS Informed Delivery
Replies: 17
Views: 2892

Re: Clark Howard - Sign Up For USPS Informed Delivery

Well, crooks did not hijack my informed delivery account, and my credit card ended up missing in the mail, and charges appeared anyway.

So it is unclear whether crooks did that method or another method.

But for sure, the security of large banks issuing credit cards is krap.
by AlphaLess
Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

Larry discussed the issue in this thread years ago, as did many others. It's just a rule-of-thumb, not a hard-and-fast rule. Typical marketing material. 'Rule-of-thumb'. LOL. What's being promoted? Larry doesn't sell CDs. Do you have a problem with rules-of-thumb? I have a problem with anything tha...
by AlphaLess
Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

How do you know that DFA didn't conduct extensive data analysis when they devised this rule (Larry didn't come up with this; he merely promoted it)? And there are exceedingly few mathematical proofs in the world of investing. I am not the one promoting the rule. I would expect that the party promot...
by AlphaLess
Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

Larry discussed the issue in this thread years ago, as did many others. It's just a rule-of-thumb, not a hard-and-fast rule. Typical marketing material. 'Rule-of-thumb'. LOL. What's being promoted? Larry doesn't sell CDs. Do you have a problem with rules-of-thumb? I have a problem with anything tha...
by AlphaLess
Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS announces 2019 Tax Rates, Standard Deduction, etc.
Replies: 27
Views: 5537

Re: IRS announces 2019 Tax Rates, Standard Deduction, etc.

Ah. Still going to be very deep in the 37% bracket :( I could live with having that problem :D Good point. I should stop complaining. You might still benefit from the AMT changes, unless you are very, very far into the 37% bracket. In that case the repeal of the Pease limit might help with large it...
by AlphaLess
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:57 pm
Larry discussed the issue in this thread years ago, as did many others. It's just a rule-of-thumb, not a hard-and-fast rule.
Typical marketing material.

'Rule-of-thumb'. LOL.
by AlphaLess
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

The DFA/Swedroe 'rule' with CDs is to keep extending the maturity until the point where adding one additional year would result in additional yield of under .2% (20 basis points). That rule was published is his bond book back before the financial crisis. Does any one know if has been revised since ...
by AlphaLess
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS announces 2019 Tax Rates, Standard Deduction, etc.
Replies: 27
Views: 5537

Re: IRS announces 2019 Tax Rates, Standard Deduction, etc.

fennewaldaj wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:32 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:50 pm
Ah. Still going to be very deep in the 37% bracket :(
I could live with having that problem :D
Good point. I should stop complaining.
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

If so, how high will they go? With stocks, people say don't time the market but with CDs most are saying to stick with 1 year at 2.8% vs 5 years at 4%. Isn't this timing the market and why not take the sure thing 4%? https://www.connexuscu.org/accounts/share-certificates/ I'm thinking of putting 50...
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1515
Views: 214168

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

This debate is getting old. If you don't believe in factor investing you don't believe in it. I think there is a more fundamental point here. It is about a firm that is all about publishing historical paper results based on some model and attempting to deliver actual results based on that model. Al...
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th
Replies: 376
Views: 24512

Re: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th

drk wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:17 pm

There's no pretending needed. Your plan is explicitly allowed.
Thanks for the info.
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first
Replies: 25
Views: 2552

Re: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first

you need $600k of tax-deferred assets just to fill the 0% bracket for a married filing jointly couple. You need about $2.5 million to fill up the 12% bracket for MFJ. Yes, Social Security benefits reduce these amounts, but the point remains that you need a lot of tax-deferred assets to run into a r...
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th
Replies: 376
Views: 24512

Re: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th

If I have an HSA, but I am not currently enrolled in a HD plan (i.e., I can not contribute), then can I open an HSA at Fidelity? I'd like to roll-over my current HSA from wherever to Fidelity. TIA Yes. Thanks! When I mouse-over the eligibility and requirements, it clearly states that I need to be i...
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 222
Views: 27804

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

Your calculations are slight off. Assuming house is paid off, spending 200k per year in HCOLA requires daily expense of around 550. Unless one is stupidly throwing away money, it is difficult to spend that type of money each day. Well, we were talking about rich people, right? We live in the low en...
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first
Replies: 25
Views: 2552

Re: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first

you need $600k of tax-deferred assets just to fill the 0% bracket for a married filing jointly couple. You need about $2.5 million to fill up the 12% bracket for MFJ. Yes, Social Security benefits reduce these amounts, but the point remains that you need a lot of tax-deferred assets to run into a r...
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When is Too Long to Return a Hair Dryer to Costco?
Replies: 68
Views: 4145

Re: When is Too Long to Return a Hair Dryer to Costco?

She got her money's worth: almost (say, you could expect this thing to last 10 years, as I have a hair dryer from Costco from 1998 that is still working), Should she take it back to Costco: hard to say, Should Costco have such an accommodating policy: I let Costco decide that. Do I care that she is ...
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th
Replies: 376
Views: 24512

Re: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th

If I have an HSA, but I am not currently enrolled in a HD plan (i.e., I can not contribute), then can I open an HSA at Fidelity?
I'd like to roll-over my current HSA from wherever to Fidelity.

TIA
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first
Replies: 25
Views: 2552

Re: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first

To avoid RMDs, how hard it is to get a job that offers a 401K, and then rollover all kinds of 401K-compatible funds into that?
My understanding is that a 401K from current employer is not subject to RMDs.
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LOST OVER $400 on CDs in 2 Weeks!
Replies: 24
Views: 4285

Re: LOST OVER $400 on CDs in 2 Weeks!

So I setup a Vanguard IRA and rolled over prior employer 401K funds to Vanguard. I bought a couple 10 year FDIC insured CDs and have somehow lost hundreds of dollars. Can someone explain how this could happen?? I didn't think you could lose money on CDs. What's the notional value of the CD? A cd do...
by AlphaLess
Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 97
Views: 8188

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

Input a deferred annuity or pay a premium now and start receiving at age 70 and see what you get. TravelforFun Why would I do that? I am looking for a car, you are asking me to price a snowmobile. And what makes you think that the answer to the problem that you are posing is going to be satisfactor...