Search found 257 matches

by gougou
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 159
Views: 7237

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

Some large cap A-rated REITs are yielding 4% or more, such as AVB, BXP, SPG (or VNQ if you like ETF). These companies also only pay out 40% to 70% of their cashflow and invest the rest for growth. Real estate probably will beat inflation, so the 4%+ dividend should be pretty safe and inflation prote...
by gougou
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Heard of the Dividend Machine or High Yield Landlord?
Replies: 59
Views: 3985

Re: Anyone Heard of the Dividend Machine or High Yield Landlord?

Pretty sure REIT holders got burned in the current coronavirus crisis. That being said, there's blood on the street for those REITs, so it could be a good opportunity to hunt for some bargins. That's a good point. However, I don't stock pick so I wouldn't know where to go for info. Doesn't VTSAX al...
by gougou
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Heard of the Dividend Machine or High Yield Landlord?
Replies: 59
Views: 3985

Re: Anyone Heard of the Dividend Machine or High Yield Landlord?

Pretty sure REIT holders got burned in the current coronavirus crisis.

That being said, there's blood on the street for those REITs, so it could be a good opportunity to hunt for some bargins.
by gougou
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"
Replies: 121
Views: 5120

Re: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"

Someone like a kid or spouse who does not know the combination to the safe could be in a very bad situation if their lives were threatened if they did not open the safe. That's a very strange argument against holding gold at home. What if there's no gold in the safe? The kid or spouse still die bec...
by gougou
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: To REIT or not to REIT?
Replies: 28
Views: 2450

Re: To REIT or not to REIT?

REITs are tax efficient when held inside a retirement account. They don't pay income taxes and you don't pay income taxes in those accounts. Most REITs don't hold much cash on hand. They own highly illiquid assets and they borrow a lot of money. They get beaten down badly in a credit crunch, but the...
by gougou
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold vs Mining Stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1318

Re: Gold vs Mining Stocks?

Gold mining company is a leveraged bet on the gold price. This is because all gold mining companies need to pay production costs and they also have risk of not producing enough quantity of gold. Holding gold itself is less risky.
by gougou
Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 2611
Views: 208899

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Citibank has transparent rate quotes on their website without asking for your personal information. I find them pretty competitive in terms of jumbo loans. They also have a program where you can reduce your interest rate by up to 0.625% if you bring in up to $1M. Do you have a link to the rates pag...
by gougou
Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3983
Views: 302516

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I mean, there WILL BE one day that hospitals can not accept any more patient but there are LOTS OF severely ill people outside. Those people will die at a rate of way more than 2%. That is unlikely to happen because that didn't even happen in China outside of Hubei Province. Unless our government i...
by gougou
Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 2611
Views: 208899

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Citibank has transparent rate quotes on their website without asking for your personal information. I find them pretty competitive in terms of jumbo loans. They also have a program where you can reduce your interest rate by up to 0.625% if you bring in up to $1M.
by gougou
Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla Stock
Replies: 301
Views: 16621

Re: Tesla Stock

Sold all my TSLA shares today at around $917. I sold half at around $405 and never thought the stock would go up like this.

I am completely BH now except my 50 shares of AMZN that I haven't sold yet. But I might still pick some stocks for fun.
by gougou
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs TIPS vs Inflation
Replies: 35
Views: 2447

Re: Gold vs TIPS vs Inflation

https://s3.amazonaws.com/gurufocus_userupload/291330471.jpg We didn't have much of a stock market 200 years ago so I'm not convinced that this graph is accurate. It's better to use Dow Jones index or S&P index because those are much easier to verify. Also the stock market 200 years ago, or even 100...
by gougou
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I refinance house?
Replies: 6
Views: 646

Re: Should I refinance house?

Yes, because it's a no cost refi and you save 0.5% on interest. If you move a year later you'll save about $2000.
by gougou
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Designing a Portfolio for an Investor Who Wishes to Avoid "Paper Assets"
Replies: 61
Views: 3091

Re: Designing a Portfolio for an Investor Who Wishes to Avoid "Paper Assets"

Gold and other precious metals
Collectible coins and arts
Cryptocurrency (to some extent)

Pretty much everything else depends on the society to justify your ownership of the assets.
by gougou
Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental House Investment
Replies: 12
Views: 1576

Re: Rental House Investment

Stick to newer single family houses in good neighborhood. Townhouse: probably has HOA which costs money and interferes with your landlord business. 2 to 4 units: Generally in worse neighborhoods and tenants are lower quality. It takes much longer to find a nice multiunit property because there are f...
by gougou
Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?
Replies: 191
Views: 18786

Re: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?

China. No capital gains tax. Affordable and abundant products and services. Some of the best doctors available with reasonable prices. When naming countries to retire to, people seem to be placing more value on free stuff from government/cheap healthcare than individual liberties like freedom of sp...
by gougou
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?
Replies: 191
Views: 18786

Re: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?

China. No capital gains tax. Affordable and abundant products and services. Some of the best doctors available with reasonable prices.
by gougou
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Engineers - What are you making? ($$$)
Replies: 357
Views: 43897

Re: Engineers - What are you making? ($$$)

Software Engineer in HCOL location. 4 YOE and a bit over 300K since last year.
by gougou
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

I don’t understand all the discussion about whether using gold as currency is “bad for society” or whether it causes deflation. The question should be, do we have another choice in the long term? What is a better store of value/universal currency if tomorrow (or 300 years later) the US is no longer ...
by gougou
Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

Just wanted to offer some thoughts. It was suggested earlier in this thread that the U.S. Dollar is 200+ years old. It's really not. This applies to other ostensibly old currencies as well. If my dog Max dies and I replace it with a new dog named Max, it's not the same dog. The U.S. has had many cu...
by gougou
Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

The other question I keep asking myself about gold (or silver) is: what would it be worth to anyone if there was no "spot price" system in place? What would the value be if someone had it and needed to sell it and there was no reference point to work off of ? We may have all seen videos where an in...
by gougou
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

Sure, you can put your full faith in the value of USD and assume it is the perfectly stable asset . Then you’ll reach the conclusion that gold is volatile and that its returns cannot make up for its volatility. Yep, that's what I do. If I was European, I'd do the same thing with the euro. Japanese,...
by gougou
Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

Let’s think about why gold was “volatile” in the most recent boom and bust. Gold ran up strongly 2009 to 2012 when US economy was in bad shape, and ran down 2012 to 2016 when US economy was strong. Now you can calculate some volatility metrics for gold using USD as the reference asset. But that doe...
by gougou
Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

You only proved gold is volatile against USD, or the prices of consumer goods and services within the US. All of those are still highly correlated with USD itself. When I removed the USD correlation and looked at some truly international assets such as a diversified basket of commodities suddenly t...
by gougou
Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

You obviously don’t know how the stdev of a portfolio is calculated. Let me give you a simple example. If a portfolio returns exactly 10% every year, then its annual returns are 10% with stdev of 0. Those are the numbers you’ll get on the portfoliovisualizer website. That would be the standard devi...
by gougou
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

I calculated the annual returns of gold and annual returns of treasury. The stdev was calculated on those annual returns, similar to any kind of portfolio return analysis. No. I subtracted the rate of inflation . You can't divide the returns of two assets. That doesn't make any sense. Sorry. But yo...
by gougou
Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

Alright let me do some work using the data from portfoliovisualizer. I got the returns of Commodities, 10-year Treasuries and Gold from 2007 to 2019 (that's the most data they have for Commodities). I computed the returns of Treasuries using Commodities as base and then I computed the returns of Go...
by gougou
Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

USD's value varies daily against all other assets such as crude oil, iron ore, silver, real estate, Euro or whatever you can think of. So it IS jumping up and down in purchasing power every single day. I would never assume USD is a constant with 0 volatility. We've been over this. You are choosing ...
by gougou
Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

You calculated US Treasury's stdev vs USD, compared it to Gold's stdev vs USD and concluded that US Treasury is less volatile. Under this scheme, USD has exactly 0 volatility. When I pointed out this flaw in your analysis, your defense is that I am disingenuous. However, it is you who used a highly...
by gougou
Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

If you use USD as base then gold looks volatile but if you use gold as base then USD is volatile. And if you measure both in terms of "what can I buy with it?" it is evident that gold is the one that's volatile and not USD. You knew that before you posted. I think you are being more than a little d...
by gougou
Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 116014

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Existence of a 5X ETF over a long period of time, say 30+ years. Preferably one that had positive return over its lifetime. Do we have that data? BTW, I'm not saying this is a good investment -- I'm just saying comparing leveraged RE to REITS is an apples vs oranges question due to gearing. Leverag...
by gougou
Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 116014

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:35 am
gougou wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:16 am


Are there any 5X leverage ETF that can survive a recession? Please give me an example.
Define 'survive'.

Your money, or the existence of the ETF?
Existence of a 5X ETF over a long period of time, say 30+ years. Preferably one that had positive return over its lifetime.
by gougou
Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 116014

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:03 pm
gougou wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:20 pm


No, because stocks are too volatile and you'll get margin calls or get completely wiped out even if you can buy it with 5x leverage.
Then just buy one of the pre-leveraged REIT ETFs and avoid the issue.
Are there any 5X leverage ETF that can survive a recession? Please give me an example.
by gougou
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 116014

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Here are two scenarios (I am simplifying them to make a point on leverage): (1) Put $80 k in RE ETF. Let’s assume you make 8% per year (after fees). After 9 years, your money would double to $160 k and after 18 years, your money would double again to $320 k. (2) Put $80 k (20% down payment) on $400...
by gougou
Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Irrational Fear of Injury in Small Car?
Replies: 124
Views: 8247

Re: Irrational Fear of Injury in Small Car?

Buy a Cybertruck :D
by gougou
Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living in a HCOL and making a middle class salary is a struggle
Replies: 340
Views: 20695

Re: Living in a HCOL and making a middle class salary is a struggle

Buying around 4x income is what you have to do. With $230K gross you can afford $1M house especially if you have very stable employment. Monthly PITI is around $5000 with today's low interest rate.
by gougou
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

So all treasuries had a higher Sharpe ratio than gold, all treasuries had lower volatility than gold, and long treasuries had higher return than gold. Yes, these are two points of view: For anti-stock correlation, Treasuries are more consistent and have better risk reward, plus internal return. For...
by gougou
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

The Stdev/Sharpe ratio don't make sense here because we are comparing two currencies. What? That is not even remotely true. Neither gold nor intermediate US treasuries are currencies. If you use USD as base then gold looks volatile but if you use gold as base then USD is volatile. And if you measur...
by gougou
Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

To be a bit cynical for a moment: I think some people hold gold because it looks good in backtests. Gold definitely looks good in backtests. I don't think any other investment could have survived over gold since say 1000 years ago. Even in recent decades gold have done reasonably well and probably ...
by gougou
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 14091

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

To be a bit cynical for a moment: I think some people hold gold because it looks good in backtests. Gold definitely looks good in backtests. I don't think any other investment could have survived over gold since say 1000 years ago. Even in recent decades gold have done reasonably well and probably ...
by gougou
Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Homeownership is a bad investment
Replies: 480
Views: 65394

Re: Shiller: Homeownership is a bad investment

I feel that most computation of RE return leave out the imputed rent. Most houses in HCOL can be rented for a net yield of 3% and 4%+ MCOL/LCOL. It's much better to compare rental properties vs index funds.
by gougou
Fri Dec 27, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer at FAANG for $350k - Declining Offer
Replies: 161
Views: 18623

Re: Job offer at FAANG for $350k - Declining Offer

$350K is pretty low for a M1 level role with several direct reports. Maybe this is a lower level? If this is a M1 level role it should pay around $500K. If you are undecided you should negotiate for more. Your decision also greatly depends on the company. Amazon, Facebook, Netflix are more cut throa...
by gougou
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too poor to invest - living in the 12% bracket
Replies: 114
Views: 12027

Re: Too poor to invest - living in the 12% bracket

You can make over 100K and still be in the 12% bracket.

If you make 121K and use 24K standard deduction and max out one person's 401K of 19K, you are left with 78K taxable income and you are still in the 12% bracket.

121K income IMO is not too poor to invest.
by gougou
Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My first investment property purchase
Replies: 27
Views: 3105

Re: My first investment property purchase

After you sell it you can claim you did well.

What if you couldn't sell for a good price and those higher interest rates start kicking in? Rent out and refinance the property?
by gougou
Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guidance needed. Investing income from inherited rental properties and IRA accounts.
Replies: 11
Views: 534

Re: Guidance needed. Investing income from inherited rental properties and IRA accounts.

$1300/month combined? Those are two cheap houses. Are they in good areas of the town? How much do they sell for?
by gougou
Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 200x return in 1 month
Replies: 14
Views: 2334

Re: 200x return in 1 month

I got one. Realistically it's just a 10x return on a mere $60. There are better ways to make money.
by gougou
Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 10 year ARM vs 30 year fixed
Replies: 27
Views: 2439

Re: 10 year ARM vs 30 year fixed

Do you want to spend $5K per year for the next 10 years to protect against interest rate rising significantly? On the 10 year mark, you'll have about $744K principal left if you go for 2.375% or $758K left if you go for 2.875%. If you elect to pay an extra $262/month on the 10 ARM (same payment as 3...
by gougou
Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing in farmland
Replies: 14
Views: 2022

Re: Investing in farmland

Farmlands are highly illiquid and should command a much higher yield than 3% to 5%. You could get unlevered yield of 4% to 8% buying high quality residential RE. You could also get 2% yield buying SP500 or 4% yield buying REIT ETF such as VNQ.
by gougou
Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting out a cash flow neutral single family?
Replies: 14
Views: 1392

Re: Renting out a cash flow neutral single family?

Cash flow neutral with 15 year loan is pretty good. I would recommend keeping the house. What market are you in if you don't mind disclosing?
by gougou
Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Replies: 38
Views: 3196

Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.

Reminds me of PetroChina, the first trillion dollar company and a terrible investment since its IPO.
by gougou
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?
Replies: 145
Views: 22104

Re: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?

When I say high income, I was thinking over $250k in HHI. Once you depreciate all the property the income on rentals is taxed at ordinary income rates. Dividends are taxed at much lower rates. I've owned rentals for 16 years. They were fine when I was younger. Now they didn't have the same appeal.....