Search found 23 matches

by empiricist
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 23666

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

But I would credit myself with admitting I had no idea where the stock market would be by early June, and no reason to think I had any special insight into whether 'the market is too optimistic given the grim reality' which a small legion of (now less vocal) posters were saying back then. I just no...
by empiricist
Thu May 07, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dealer won’t give back car titled in my name, how to proceed?
Replies: 71
Views: 5967

Re: Dealer won’t give back car titled in my name, how to proceed?

Your brother will never become a mature adult as long as you are trying to intercept and remove all consequences for him. It's in his best interest that you stop enabling him. Consider the $1060 a loss, and let your brother figure out how to deal with having bought a car he cannot afford. Or continu...
by empiricist
Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 23666

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Just curious if OP and Empiricist are still bearish? If I was so weak on conviction that a week of market gains was making me question myself, I would have absolutely no business doing anything other than staying the course. Have we cured coronavirus? Are people returning to work? Have we demonstra...
by empiricist
Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 23666

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

I am in agreement with a good portion of what you have been saying,not as pessimistic to your level, but at what point does investing just become gambling when taking such an extreme view? When investing more than you can afford to lose. :) Though it is worth noting that the risks here are not symm...
by empiricist
Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 23666

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

I'm calling you on what might or might not be some recency bias. Perhaps it's the other side of the normalcy bias coin: after a calamitous shock, we tend to become biased to expect further calamity. The bears and the goldbugs of 2009-2013 had wonderfully cogent, air-tight arguments but the market c...
by empiricist
Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 23666

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Correct about normalcy regarding the pandemic but your views on the market going forward remind me of how bearish everyone was in 2010-2011. Do you have specific arguments about how the current market valuations are justifiable, or about how we will pull out of this without an enourmous number of b...
by empiricist
Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 23666

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Today, even though I'm less confident than I was before about what tomorrow brings, I would be willing to gamble $10K on something like that. Is that enough money to even see a big gain if I'm correct? Now that volatility is so high, options are more expensive, and the market would need to move fur...
by empiricist
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 23666

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

I am just some random guy on the internet, and am only saying the following to give context to what I will say next, not to try and brag - none of you know me, so what would be the point of that? I have been following the virus since early January. I warned my friends and family to expect a pandemic...
by empiricist
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Misunderstanding ETF, or portfolio analyzer broken?
Replies: 3
Views: 667

Re: Misunderstanding ETF, or portfolio analyzer broken?

livesoft wrote: Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:13 am The Portfolio Watch tool is horribly wrong. Sorry.
Thanks for the quick confirmation. I wouldn't have been as surprised with other companies' ETFs, but these are Vanguard ETFs so I was more surprised.

Cheers
by empiricist
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Misunderstanding ETF, or portfolio analyzer broken?
Replies: 3
Views: 667

Misunderstanding ETF, or portfolio analyzer broken?

I've recently switched my portfolio over from 60/40 VTSAX/VTIAX to 60/40 ESGV / VSGX . Yet when I use the Vanguard portfolio analyzer tool, it now tells me that I'm significantly over-weighting large caps and under-weighting small and medium caps. When I mean significantly, it appears that ESGV/VSGX...
by empiricist
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 962

Re: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?

Since you are planning future taxes, have you also included what happens when the first of a couple dies? Whoa, that is something I hadn't really considered very much. You had me quite worried for a minute about what the taxes would be before I thought it through! We're both in our late twenties an...
by empiricist
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 962

Re: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?

Why would you choose (A)? KlangFool The way you have stated the alternatives isn't quite correct. It's the last ~10k of the 401k that we couldn't manage to afford without taking money from the taxable account. The current status is that we fund our IRAs from our salary, leaving the taxable account ...
by empiricist
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 962

Re: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?

1) The quoted site argued against Roth 401K. We are asking about Roth IRA. They are not the same. 2) When you do not have the choice of 401K, it may not matter. But, with 401K, you could contribute to Trad. 401K and Roth IRA at the same time. KlangFool For the purposes of calculating the best inves...
by empiricist
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 962

Re: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?

Lou354 wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:24 pm You should consider whether the 401k comes with higher investing expenses that over time will negate the tax benefit.
Yes, that is a good point. I don't yet know what the options are, so I will have to wait to get the plan documents before making the decision.
by empiricist
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 962

Re: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?

If you draw down your taxable account, what would be your plan for the first five years of early retirement? You would be at risk of incurring penalties on your 401k, which would defeat the purpose of the slight premium you are getting of at most 12%. Especially since you are not saving in Roth on ...
by empiricist
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 962

Re: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?

BL wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:55 pm Do you also max Roth IRAs?
We max our Traditional IRAs. I know this goes against the traditional wisdom, but our income in retirement will be substantially less than it is now. This site explains the reasoning behind not using Roth accounts.
by empiricist
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 962

Should I fund a 401k by drawing down a taxable account?

My wife and I are heavy savers, and are planning on retiring early. At the current point in time, our savings has exceeded all the tax-deferred vehicles available to us, so we have additional savings in a taxable account. Next year her employer will start offering a 401k (with no match). We won't be...
by empiricist
Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?
Replies: 34
Views: 3732

Re: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?

I actually simplified the situation slightly, I also have one unit of supplemental insurance which means my total payout is actually 120,000 for a total annual premium of 48.96. Since the supplemental insurance has the same expected value (and cost per 1000), I originally omitted that detail, though...
by empiricist
Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?
Replies: 34
Views: 3732

Re: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?

celia wrote: Tue Sep 26, 2017 5:47 pmAre you sure it is per year or per pay period?
Please confirm if your $25 is per year or per pay period.
I don't blame you for being skeptical, but yes, with absolute certainty it is ~25 per year. Specifically, it is
  • 2.04 per month that I pay
  • 1.39 per month that my employer pays
by empiricist
Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?
Replies: 34
Views: 3732

Re: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?

Thanks for the replies everyone; I'll keep it. The employer is probably paying at least $200 on your behalf each year. Oddly enough, after making this post I looked at what my employer pays towards the premium (it is itemized on my pay stub - 16.68 a year) and even with my and my employer's premiums...
by empiricist
Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?
Replies: 34
Views: 3732

Re: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?

To answer previous posts: It is 25 a year. 60k is my annual salary and nearly twice my annual expenses, so it would have an effect on my wife's life. More than the small amount the premium would grow in the market, certainly. The interesting dilemma for me is not the standard "should I get life...
by empiricist
Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?
Replies: 34
Views: 3732

Re: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?

Don't you have to also calculate the expected value of the alternative investment of the premium and compare the two? Good point, I didn't fully do the math on the alternative investment. The expected return on the insurance is 3.41 dollars per dollar spent on it. It would take me quite a while to ...
by empiricist
Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?
Replies: 34
Views: 3732

Should I keep a term life policy I don't need if it has a positive expected value?

I recently realized that I don't need life insurance because my spouse and I are not planning on having children, and she makes enough to support herself if I were to pass away. All premiums saved by removing the insurance would be invested, not squandered. Before cancelling my employer-offered insu...