Search found 2956 matches

by heyyou
Sat May 26, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strengths/Weaknesses of Market Cap and Value Strategies
Replies: 3
Views: 480

Re: Strengths/Weaknesses of Market Cap and Value Strategies

Either one could do well enough if you stay with it long enough. A mixture is better for me with my mixed set of behavioral finance biases, and that has done well for the last 40 years. Your goal could be, not whatever will do the best which will always be unknown, but whatever suits you the best no...
by heyyou
Sat May 26, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 34
Views: 3166

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

It was a collateralized commodities fund (CCF) fund but I didn't do all of the adjustment gymnastics to the rest of the portfolio as suggested by the guru. I can now see that just being patient (expecting to have to wait for the recovery) is better than trying to avoid whatever I fear the most. BTW,...
by heyyou
Sat May 26, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm an indexer... but...
Replies: 37
Views: 3745

Re: I'm an indexer... but...

OP, take 10% of your stock portfolio and buy whatever fund or funds, you want. Write down your justifications for doing so, and keep that for future reference. Maybe you will outperform your index funds over the next three decades, but probably not. At 10% of only your stock portfolio, you also will...
by heyyou
Sat May 26, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 34
Views: 3166

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

For many retired Bogleheads, their spending is not fixed at the maximum safe historical rate so they can cut back when it seems prudent to do so. As with life prior to retirement, new retirees could expect to need to adapt to changes as they occur in retirement. Certainty is still hard to find, thes...
by heyyou
Sat May 26, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rowing machine
Replies: 22
Views: 1339

Re: Rowing machine

My rowing apparatus is mobile, it floats on water. :)
by heyyou
Fri May 25, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 34
Views: 3166

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Basically, the idea is be conservative, not to gamble on the market and not to live beyond our means, so to speak. That is wise for many less favorable situations. Often the next market problem is just enough different, that whatever would have done best last time, does not fit the new conditions. ...
by heyyou
Fri May 25, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 32
Views: 1542

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

Is time ever considered, instead of looking for buffers for periods of poor returns? If the investor waits long enough, sometimes a sub-asset class will recover, as seen on a Callan Periodic Table. Perhaps patience is fullness? Also with a slice and dice portfolio instead of a total market fund, I c...
by heyyou
Thu May 24, 2018 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?
Replies: 13
Views: 907

Re: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?

Cap weighted blend funds have plenty of growth exposure. Easier to stay the course if some easily seen slice of your portfolio is doing well. Some of us are just tubs of all of the wrong behavioral finance traits, so we timidly allocate only as far as we dare. Value may well pay more over the long t...
by heyyou
Wed May 23, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?
Replies: 76
Views: 5603

Re: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?

This is on the extended topic of paying the extra tax. When you withdraw from a brokerage account, the form asks if any of the withdrawal needs to go to withholding taxes. To the IRS, there is a difference between withholding taxes and estimated taxes. The IRS watches to see if you pay your estimate...
by heyyou
Tue May 22, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5119

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Thus AQR funds with their deeper insight, will immediately start to outperform all of the other fund companies, since no other fund companies will understand or adapt to this knowledge? So this is a stock picker's market, right? Let me know how that works out, after the next decade. Seems like the m...
by heyyou
Tue May 22, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 4876

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

Yes, perhaps there will always be a theoretical more optimal way, but is anyone complaining that their old-fashioned index funds have not done well enough, that they couldn't afford to retire just due to missing both of those basis points? This would be a pretty slow board if we just accepted what w...
by heyyou
Mon May 21, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need advice on books for teenagers
Replies: 8
Views: 780

Re: need advice on books for teenagers

The Wealthy Barber is dated but good, since it shows young adults on a variety of career and job paths, but the saving and investing advice does fit all of them. I wish that a play, based on the book, would be written, then some famous young stars would donate their time to perform it on video, to ...
by heyyou
Mon May 21, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good read on why to keep a simple indexed fund portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 2192

Re: Good read on why to keep a simple indexed fund portfolio

As mentioned by others, a good article for attracting non-Bogleheads to index portfolios, but just confirmation for current indexers.
by heyyou
Sat May 19, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International -- VXUS or slice and dice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1297

Re: International -- VXUS or slice and dice?

This is Trev H's answer about historical slice and dice performance versus just one domestic large blend plus one foreign large blend funds. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=38374 Just read the first couple of pages, the rest is repetitious. In the introduction, he does have EM ...
by heyyou
Sat May 19, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having trouble figuring out expected expenses in retirement
Replies: 37
Views: 2542

Re: Having trouble figuring out expected expenses in retirement

With no kids at home, our pre-retirement annual expenses were simple to see--we subtracted our annual savings contributions (shown on each account's end of year report) from our annual income, knowing the rest was spent. Taxes are just another expense to us, their only significance is the withholdin...
by heyyou
Fri May 18, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor wants to use our land temporarily - let them or not?
Replies: 48
Views: 6022

Re: Neighbor wants to use our land temporarily - let them or not?

Accountability helps everyone involved to stay honest. Would the HOA want to help you make sure the contractor cleans up? Yes, let the contractor use your land after you have his full personal ID and his state roofing license info, and a complete set of (hopefully dated) photos showing the current c...
by heyyou
Fri May 18, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Very Unique Inflation Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1286

Re: A Very Unique Inflation Fund

One problem with future inflation is no one knows the future, the future amount nor the future duration of the period. Over long periods, equities will eventually outgrow inflation but that does not suit those who want an inflation buffer right now. The financial product supply industry is very good...
by heyyou
Sun May 13, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9923

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Starting valuations matter when looking at the adequacy of savings at the beginning of retirement. These days, we can see how retirement spending suggestions have progressed from the early days of Peter Lynch's 7% annually from a 100% dividend stock portfolio based on only the previous 20 years, wh...
by heyyou
Sun May 13, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 2963

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

Yes, some specific bonds will default someday but, as mentioned above, that will not even be a 100% default on those few bad bonds. Your bond fund value will immediately drop then rebound when the partial default on those few bad bonds is known. Temporary increased volatility in a fund, is being con...
by heyyou
Sat May 12, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9923

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

On adjusting the allocation at and during retirement, McClung suggests starting near 50/50 allocation and withdrawing from bonds first, which would progressively increase your stock exposure, thus different authors with the same conclusion. That spending may not feel comfortable, but the logic of le...
by heyyou
Sat May 12, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9923

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

In Taylor's case, that $1M was worth (adjusting for inflation) $2,582,948.45 today, in addition to a pension and retirement benefits at the time of retirement. The Small Business Administration is a federal agency. Wouldn't there also be an inflation protected pension and wasn't Taylor L. the head ...
by heyyou
Sat May 12, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is REIT a prudential investment choice at the moment?
Replies: 20
Views: 1879

Re: Is REIT a prudential investment choice at the moment?

by ascension » Fri May 11, 2018 12:18 pm Thank you all. Saved me big time. Where would you invest money now? Now? I would invest in the same broadly diversified index funds as any and every other time, knowing that I'm buying to keep for the long run, expecting to sell only in retirement when I nee...
by heyyou
Tue May 08, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire Internationally for FIRE
Replies: 78
Views: 8919

Re: Retire Internationally for FIRE

Consider going for a decade or longer, delaying SS, then returning at age 70 or slightly later, to move to some large town in a fly over state. Your overseas time will just be a less expensive bridge from early retirement to the slower years.
by heyyou
Sun May 06, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 9038

Re: Unprecedented Event

At my house, we expect to try to muddle through, same as our parents did in the Great Depression. Note that savers are already living on less that the spendthrifts.
by heyyou
Wed May 02, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAESX - is not really Small Cap?! [Vanguard Small-Cap Index]
Replies: 41
Views: 3518

Re: NAESX - is not really Small Cap?!

As usual, the intersection of theory and the real world is messy and imprecise.
by heyyou
Wed May 02, 2018 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!
Replies: 129
Views: 10091

Re: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!

CNN was touting a sugar detox diet in December and January.
https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/09/health/s ... index.html
by heyyou
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Changes After Retirement
Replies: 11
Views: 1134

Re: Portfolio Changes After Retirement

With numerous equity slices, there may be less rebalancing since the early changes will be spread across multiple funds. Rebalancing is for risk reduction, no rebalancing has good long term returns with some stress of wider fluctuations. Several book authors have written about the high performance o...
by heyyou
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 15819

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Many here seem to have a tendency to take the Trinity study and similar studies far too literally. Any study, no matter how it is conducted, has problems with it, and the same can be said of any retirement income strategy. Universal perfection is unattainable, and we probably wouldn't even know if ...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 29, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is McClung "slice and dice" worth the complication?
Replies: 40
Views: 2766

Re: Is McClung "slice and dice" worth the complication?

If you are 50/50 stocks bonds like me, you cut the percentages in half for your equity portion, obviously. US Large 10% (potentially omit) US Large Value 10% US Micro, Small Blend 10% US SMall Value 10% Intl Large 10% (potentially omit) Intl Large Value 10% (plus more slices) (1) Omitting US and fo...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is McClung "slice and dice" worth the complication?
Replies: 40
Views: 2766

Re: Is McClung "slice and dice" worth the complication?

The logic is that to be purely in the S&P 500 creates a large exposure to US Large Cap, and even a "regular" international exposure does the same with international large cap. 2 of the recommended portfolios skip the US Large and Intl Large categories Somewhere in the book, McClung wrote that he ra...
by heyyou
Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ/Zweig - Value Should Do Better. But When Is Anybody’s Guess
Replies: 12
Views: 1401

Re: WSJ/Zweig - Value Should Do Better. But When Is Anybody’s Guess

Sounds like the rewards and the risks are somewhat related. I think I've heard that before, somewhere on the internet. :happy Note to Main Street investors: By owning a mixture of both value and growth, the returns were good enough to achieve our financial goals if we saved and invested enough, even...
by heyyou
Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those with high savings rate: why?
Replies: 246
Views: 31295

Re: Those with high savings rate: why?

by catdude » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:15 am Early retirement... My goal was to retire at 55, and I made it. Working for a living ain't all it's cracked up to be. Same here, by age 25, it was obvious that I only had to work until I could afford to not work. I kept the job that paid the most for my low edu...
by heyyou
Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Freedom
Replies: 22
Views: 2800

Re: Financial Freedom

The single most important decision is to choose the right partner, who is on the same path for financial independence, preferably before you met. Find a spending level that suits you both for just enough car, just enough shelter, just enough hobbies, and stay at that spending level. Try to save all ...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age
Replies: 94
Views: 10876

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age

LTC is such an expensive proposition, I just don't know what the solution to the incredible cost might be.
Medical tourism, take me there then leave me there.
by heyyou
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 diversification
Replies: 28
Views: 5020

Re: Jeremy Siegel's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 diversification

1/N suits me. Others should do whatever suits them.
by heyyou
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation
Replies: 76
Views: 7316

Re: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation

Years ago, Buffett said his widow would get his cash holdings, when all of his shares of BRK stock went to the Gates Foundation. I've forgotten the single digit % that was mentioned as his cash, but when it was multiplied times a then recently published Forbes magazine number for his wealth, it was ...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Article Claiming Vanguard Will Be Responsible For The Next Bear Market
Replies: 29
Views: 4664

Re: An Article Claiming Vanguard Will Be Responsible For The Next Bear Market

The click-bait title and the immediate ad to enter the site are indicative. Here are the concluding lines (color added by me): There are far better opportunities out there than what the S&P 500 offers. Even in the S&P 500, there are stocks that are cheaper and will probably outperform the index in t...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge To The 3 Fund Portfolio...The 2 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 32
Views: 3313

Re: A Challenge To The 3 Fund Portfolio...The 2 Fund Portfolio

Long ago, when a computer filled an air conditioned room, an economist, perhaps Paul Samuelson, looked for the highest performing portfolio. It was either 93/7 or 87/13 stocks to bonds, rebalanced. (I can't remember which.) The rebalancing outperformed 100% stock portfolios due to buying more stock ...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I have 3 different investment horizons when planning for retirement?
Replies: 32
Views: 2541

Re: Do I have 3 different investment horizons when planning for retirement?

Our delayed SS was both our long term inflation buffer for our initial retirement spending, and our portfolio insurance for sequence risk conditions, knowing that sequence risk is only from very high inflation in the first decade of retirement. Those are related, but one is on maintaining our spendi...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new thinking under 2018 tax law?
Replies: 11
Views: 1602

Re: new thinking under 2018 tax law?

new thinking?
Having retired in a low cost area, my numbers are so small that my effective tax rate is acceptable.
by heyyou
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nomadic lifestyle in their 50s
Replies: 101
Views: 10451

Re: Nomadic lifestyle in their 50s

For those drooling about the pictured van, check on the maintenance costs first. The Dodge Sprinter vans with the Benz diesel engines have $300+ oil changes due to the Mercedes parts.
by heyyou
Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bonner: what's your take?
Replies: 38
Views: 3555

Re: Bill Bonner: what's your take?

Bill Bonner: what's your take? Bill Bonner is not going to share his wealth with you, so you need to invest for your future that will include stock market crashes between long periods of slow stock market growth. Many here are moderately wealthy from steadily buying stock mutual fund shares during ...
by heyyou
Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 315
Views: 31080

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Perhaps we have wandered past a milestone, since we no longer seem to care about our asset level. Could be experience, familiarity, apathy, or dementia!! I don't know, and don't care. I suppose we think we have enough assets to live how we prefer to live, in our LCOL (low cost of living) area, after...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 15819

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Peter Lynch's 7% was from the immediate prior 20 years of historical returns in the mid-1990s, on a 100% dividend stock portfolio (stock shares, not a dividend stock index fund), and not a long history, nor a diversified portfolio. McClung's withdrawing from bonds first, has some merit for those who...
by heyyou
Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What hedge strategies do you employ?
Replies: 29
Views: 2754

Re: What hedge strategies do you employ?

Prior to retirement, sold the multi-story house and bought the smaller, cheaper, single level retiree sized home. Delaying SS to age 70. Stayed at the job with a no-COLA pension until the pension credits equaled our conservative spending and we could get less expensive retiree healthcare (at age 55)...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimized Retirement Withdrawal Strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 1311

Re: Optimized Retirement Withdrawal Strategy

Seconding what 02nz stated above:
Retirement accounts that are only tax sheltered have a large exposure to higher taxes late in retirement after one of you passes. The survivor has only half as many tax deductions as the couple, while the % withdrawal for each annual RMD is rapidly escalating.
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimized Retirement Withdrawal Strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 1311

Re: Optimized Retirement Withdrawal Strategy

Optimal implies some certainty about the future, and there just isn't any. Yes, there is history, but not enough when trying to forecast future average returns for the next thirty years. Read Michael H. McClung (include the middle initial to avoid the video game author) since he reproduced previous ...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull Market Timing
Replies: 60
Views: 4801

Re: Bull Market Timing

So far, those who blindly stay the course have done better than anyone who has tried to jump in and out of the stock market. History shows that if someone did anticipate the bad times correctly, they would have done better, but no one has done that repeatedly. Elaine Garzarelli was famously right on...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 67
Views: 6056

Re: Factor Investing - A convincing article

In Roth's article, every one of those segment returns in the first chart, is okay to me. I am past wanting only whatever performed the best, so my slice and dice portfolio, with its somewhat equal exposures to various size and value stocks, has suited me just fine. My tilt is away from Large Growth,...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 15819

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Bengen, author of the 4% SWR (because that number was 95% effective) did his research after Peter Lynch used only the most recent 20 year data (in the 1990s) to suggest withdrawing (WD) 7% annually from a portfolio of 100% dividend paying stocks. The Trinity University professors duplicated and upda...