Bogleheads.org

heyyou

Perhaps we have wandered past a milestone, since we no longer seem to care about our asset level. Could be experience, familiarity, apathy, or dementia!! I don't know, and don't care. I suppose we think we have enough assets to live how we prefer to live, in our LCOL (low cost of living) area, after...

heyyou

Peter Lynch's 7% was from the immediate prior 20 years of historical returns in the mid-1990s, on a 100% dividend stock portfolio (stock shares, not a dividend stock index fund), and not a long history, nor a diversified portfolio. McClung's withdrawing from bonds first, has some merit for those who...

heyyou

Prior to retirement, sold the multi-story house and bought the smaller, cheaper, single level retiree sized home. Delaying SS to age 70. Stayed at the job with a no-COLA pension until the pension credits equaled our conservative spending and we could get less expensive retiree healthcare (at age 55)...

heyyou

Seconding what 02nz stated above:
Retirement accounts that are only tax sheltered have a large exposure to higher taxes late in retirement after one of you passes. The survivor has only half as many tax deductions as the couple, while the % withdrawal for each annual RMD is rapidly escalating.

heyyou

Optimal implies some certainty about the future, and there just isn't any. Yes, there is history, but not enough when trying to forecast future average returns for the next thirty years. Read Michael H. McClung (include the middle initial to avoid the video game author) since he reproduced previous ...

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So far, those who blindly stay the course have done better than anyone who has tried to jump in and out of the stock market. History shows that if someone did anticipate the bad times correctly, they would have done better, but no one has done that repeatedly. Elaine Garzarelli was famously right on...

heyyou

In Roth's article, every one of those segment returns in the first chart, is okay to me. I am past wanting only whatever performed the best, so my slice and dice portfolio, with its somewhat equal exposures to various size and value stocks, has suited me just fine. My tilt is away from Large Growth,...

heyyou

Bengen, author of the 4% SWR (because that number was 95% effective) did his research after Peter Lynch used only the most recent 20 year data (in the 1990s) to suggest withdrawing (WD) 7% annually from a portfolio of 100% dividend paying stocks. The Trinity University professors duplicated and upda...

heyyou

Buy and hold SCV here, because that suits me. Others probably do better than I, but I've done okay. Saving more was my best method of growing my portfolio. I have no investing advice for others, but I can sure tell them how they ought to save.

heyyou

chance of correction in 2018 Was it Fama who remarked about economists and astrologers on forecasting? Serenity prayer: "to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and (the) wisdom to know the difference." Firesign Theatre: "Who knows? Who cares?" As a Supreme Court j...

heyyou

I'm interested, and I will travel from Payson. Consider having meetings in multiple locations to match the better seasons, to attract those who aren't as interested in traveling. I think there are two BHs in Prescott, or maybe one of those was in Flagstaff, and someone else once mentioned Green Vall...

heyyou

Although my gross numbers are smaller than many here, so are my expenses in retirement. I can afford to not need better performance than holding equal amounts of foreign and domestic stock funds. Others should do what suits them.

heyyou

Another vote for saving a little bit more every year. The bonus is when you need 25 times your annual spending for a retirement nest egg, 25x your smaller spending is less money than 25x what your spendthrift coworkers need. I retired at 55 with that method, but I was a late adopter of the newest el...

heyyou

At the OP: With all that distant certainty, why do you need so much certainty for the first 15 years of retirement? For most of us, the distant years are when the uncertainty occurs. Have you looked at just spending from bonds first (for your first 15 years) as suggested by Michael H. McClung, to le...

heyyou

Currently age 68, spending from portfolio and no-COLA pension. SS at age 70 plus the pension, will be more than our nominal work income. We might try McClung's spending from bonds first to let the equities grow, thus inadvertently increasing equities.

heyyou

Did anyone see the Scott Minerds interview today.

It will fluctuate.

heyyou

From the first page of this thread:

and plan on spending less and saving more

Works for me. Living within your means continues into retirement, bypassing the need for allocation gymnastics.

heyyou

outperformed slightly (9.59% vs. 9.54%) over that 25.5 year span (1) Large cap growth has done very well since the last big crash. Anyone think that will repeat starting now, without another crash? (2) Some could say that .05% difference for 25 years is not statistically significant. (3) Since the ...

heyyou

Seems interesting, let me know when the ten year return info for those Alt funds is available.

heyyou

When others speak about what has done better recently, do remember we are all in this for the long term, so choosing what has done better over longer periods is a very reasonable choice. No one knows what will do best in the future.

heyyou

Warning: Geezer with story to tell- In the late 1990s, the America Abroad mutual fund bought only the S&P500 stocks that had significant foreign revenues, hoping to have diversification from domestic stocks. It didn't work since those particular stocks' buyers and sellers did not care about the % of...

heyyou

Having done okay with index funds of securities vetted by the New York Stock Exchange, I have no interest in much more risky investments regardless of their recent history of large gains. I've already paid for my education about the proportions of risk and reward.

heyyou

Sometimes I feel like I’m not investing enough for the future and other times I feel like I’m missing out on things because I’m not spending enough presently. Both of those thoughts may never stop occurring, but you can get used to them. There will always be coworkers with nicer cars, bigger houses...

heyyou

No choice but automatic in my 401k for 25 years, then the contributions continued throughout the year as after-tax ones when the 401k was full. That seems to have worked out okay, I retired at age 55. Somehow luck often happens to those who save more than others. Maybe it is just time in the market ...

heyyou

Since the 2000 Crash, my preference is to underweight Large Growth using a slice and dice portfolio. With my confirmation bias, I like Michael H. McClung's research where he ran each of the equity sub-asset classes in a retirement spending calculator. We all know that Small Growth would do the worst...

heyyou

In retirement, holding a decade of spending in bonds, and a decade of portfolio growth since retiring, I just don't care any more. Maybe that's apathy instead of confidence. Either way, we will muddle through whatever does happen.

heyyou

I know now that I don't know, so I just ride the stock market's volatility, buffered by my bond fund allocation that also buffers my gains from the stock index funds. Saving more was my best way to portfolio growth. I've seen enough crashes and eventual recoveries that I am somewhat calloused to the...

heyyou

Calculate the Prime Harvesting amount, subtract the RMD from it, to find how much more to withdraw (WD).

heyyou

A lot of heavy hitters this morning

Don't know, and don't care. Just feeling grateful for what I have learned here while ignoring the equivalent of noise from some posters. Seems like every garden has some kind of pests in it.

heyyou

As noted by others, it is often better to let new engines get tested by the public for a year or two before buying one. Thank you to the OP for posting about the '19 model. With 220K miles on my RAV4, I too am expecting to need another one soon.

heyyou

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=38374 On the first graph, look closely at the top line, it is 4 funds and 8 funds but their returns are almost identical. Yes, the post has 720 entries but the first page or two cover the info, while the rest is just discussion that does not cha...

heyyou

Choose to keep your future spending at today's current level, to save all of your future pay raises. One of your coworkers will often have a newer, better car than yours, another will take more expensive vacations, while a third will have a nicer house, the fourth will have a motor boat, etc. You wi...

heyyou

AVOIDING THE NIGHTMARE OF RUNNING OUT OF MONEY IN RETIREMENT WITH TOP WEALTH ADVISOR, MARK CORTAZZO Just my opinion: "Nightmare" and "Running Out of Money in Retirement" written in ALL CAPS look like scare tactics of clickbait used to attract clients to an advisory service. If you start retirement ...

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Invest as soon as you can each time, since the concern about tax lots is just an easy tracking situation for your brokerage.

heyyou

It was sad when the market did not fall while Taleb's hedge fund was shorting it, at least for his investors. He was significantly right once in the past, and will be again some time in the future, but he wasn't successful soon enough when he was managing other people's money. I wonder where he inve...

heyyou

Consider leaving all of your current money in your CDs, and investing all of your future savings in stock index mutual funds that are sure to fluctuate in value every day. You will have some stable priced savings that will only shrink by slow inflation, and some highly variably priced stock funds th...

heyyou

Same here as Nisi, "It will fluctuate" was the answer to a similar question, about a century ago.
I know that I don't know, so there is nothing actionable about the situation. C'est la vie.

heyyou

For 25 years, my 401k contributions were on automatic investment since that was the only option in those days. With that length of time period, it worked out fine (retired early). Just my opinion, but striving for more, also introduces more risk, not just the chance for more returns. What did work w...

heyyou

Our assets are with a lower cost, flat fee advisor that charges less than VG PAS would for our portfolio size. We have dealt with the same staff person (with an MBA degree) there since 2005. TD Ameritrade is the brokerage that holds the mutual funds and issues a monthly report for each account type ...

heyyou

Yes, you are entering an unexperienced portion of your life, but most of those who have preceded you, did figure it out. Consider how many get married then stay married for a few decades after a series of much shorter relationships. Is that a valid analogy for finding the good part of retirement? Ab...

heyyou

Good post by longinvest. I would like to emphasis his #5. If your withdrawals are based on each recent annual portfolio value, you are not blindly continuing to over withdraw, early in retirement. That is key, sequence risk is from steadily spending more than the portfolio will support for the long ...

heyyou

Couple of thousand years ago, a fable originated about the blind guys describing an elephant after each touched a different part of the animal.

Asking for a precise answer is seeking certainty, and there just isn't any of that in the securities markets.

heyyou

My experience with equity funds has been that whatever looks best for the future, will not be whatever does best in the future, so I now just try for "good enough" instead optimal. My savings rate has done far more for my portfolio growth than fine tuning my allocations.

heyyou

I know that I don't know, so I would keep the same allocation that I have now, expecting my portfolio balance to fluctuate. Those gains and losses are just part of the long term owning of equities, not some surprising event to be dreaded.

heyyou

"Don't know and don't care." Said by Jason Zweig but to a different reference. "Who knows? Who cares?" Firesign Theater The media is just noise. They have to have attention getting headlines everyday. A portion of the Serenity Prayer: "to accept the things I cannot change; ........ and the wisdom to...

heyyou

I am used to wintering abroad.

Why not sell and just return to wintering elsewhere?

heyyou

By age 25, I could see that I only needed to work until I could afford to not work. I then worked 30 years and a month, 50-55 hours per week, until retiring. Completely unexpected, the next decade was the best years of my life. Others should do whatever suits them. I know what I like and it does not...

heyyou

My story is similar to above, low flow well (half gallon per minute) with very small pump that runs for long periods to fill a 2000 gallon storage tank on the surface. I would shop for a different house, knowing that water well is why that attractive house is still available, probably none of the lo...

heyyou

These days, I'm happy to just hold equities for long periods since they have historically outgrown inflation.
Patience is fullness.

heyyou

holding a small 3-5% CCF allocation Commodities exposure is a very good idea, but as Dr. Wm. Bernstein noted, repeatedly rolling billions of dollars of futures contracts on known dates, is not likely to be profitable in the futures markets. The problem is not the commodities, it is how futures have...

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