Search found 2803 matches

by heyyou
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2037

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

Confirmation bias A tendency to seek information that confirms one’s existing opinions and overlook or ignore information that refutes them. For example, when researching an investment, an investor might inadvertently look for information that supports his or her beliefs and fail to see information...
by heyyou
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Mark Cuban -] "Diversification is for idiots..."
Replies: 26
Views: 3668

Re: Diversification is for idiots...

I know that I don't know, and diversification has served me, a blue collar worker, well enough to retire at 55, twelve years ago. So far, it has all been good. Others are welcome to do whatever suits them.
by heyyou
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm hooked
Replies: 22
Views: 3893

Re: I'm hooked

Consider buying a used starter book from each of a few of the different recommended authors, including the ones on which several BHs (Bogleheads) collaborated. Although the messages will be similar, one or two of the authors will resonate with you more than the others. It also helps to get the repea...
by heyyou
Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
Replies: 168
Views: 16945

Re: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?

My first decade of retirement was the best years of my life. I found my bliss. At work, this introvert needed to act like an extrovert in order to make a living. In retirement, I volunteer by backpacking (often solo) into a nearby federal wilderness area to use hand tools for cutting and removing th...
by heyyou
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 4854

Re: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement

by stemikger » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:50 am heyyou wrote: ↑ Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:11 pm Buffett is donating his BRK stock to the Gates Foundation when he dies. His wife is getting his cash which is $100+ million and he has advised her trustees to invest it 90/10 in the 500 index and cash/bonds. Where did ...
by heyyou
Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Better Buy” Total US or International ?
Replies: 30
Views: 3079

Re: “Better Buy” Total US or International ?

Or who cares, feed whichever one needs to be fed according to your predetermined AA and check back in 20 years?
Yes.
Be aware that when you help family and friends get started with indexing, they could also blame you when the inevitable crashes occur that reduce the dollar value of their assets.
by heyyou
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 4283

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

by livesoft » Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:52 am Lots of folks go with adding a small-cap value index fund and a small-cap foreign index fund. Check out VSIAX / VBR and VFSVX / VSS. (Full disclosure: These are my top two single holdings in the equity part of my portfolio.) See also: viewtopic.php?t=38374 Fol...
by heyyou
Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a reasonably priced, safe international destination
Replies: 105
Views: 6033

Re: Looking for a reasonably priced, safe international destination

Consider southern Arizona. Tucson is very foreign to Baltimore, due to the low desert surrounded by rugged high mountains, bright sunshine, and mid-day warmth. The Sonoran Desert Museum (arboretum and desert animal zoo with some imitation natural enclosures), takes most of a day to see it well. Go w...
by heyyou
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Question
Replies: 14
Views: 2786

Re: Early Retirement Question

by Call_Me_Op » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:32 am jorodrig wrote: ↑ Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:07 am That is our estimated SS if we start pulling benefits at age 67 ($68K). My wife's current income is around $38K. Doesn't that estimate assume that you continue working until full retirement age? Call Me Op is being ...
by heyyou
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income
Replies: 41
Views: 2158

Re: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income

Confirmation bias A tendency to seek information that confirms one’s existing opinions and overlook or ignore information that refutes them. For example, when researching an investment, an investor might inadvertently look for information that supports his or her beliefs and fail to see information...
by heyyou
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 45
Views: 3881

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

Energy sector time to turn around? I faltered at "sector" then again at "time." From hard experiences, I know that I don't know, and more reward is from more risk. So far, patience with broad index investing has been good enough. Why would I want to take more risk than that? DW and I are comfortabl...
by heyyou
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many years of fixed income for Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 26
Views: 1951

Re: How many years of fixed income for Sequence of Return Risk

Sequence risk does not suddenly appear. For a decade or longer, you have to be blindly overspending from what your annual portfolio size will support for the long term. We expect to annually adapt our spending to what our 60/40 portfolio will support, first spending from only the bonds to let the eq...
by heyyou
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: wild bird feed
Replies: 43
Views: 1820

Re: wild bird feed

A Shop-Vac with a plastic tub canister will suck up the empty sunflower shells. Do not use a narrow nozzle on it, since you want less suction, taking the shells but not the landscaping gravel. You can hear when gravel is being sucked into the vacuum's canister. Our bird water dish is a car oil chang...
by heyyou
Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surefire best investment advice for 2018
Replies: 3
Views: 695

Re: Surefire best investment advice for 2018

increase the savings rate
Well said.
by heyyou
Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
Replies: 168
Views: 16945

Re: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?

I was surprised when I saw the response count.
Then I read them.
Whoever went back to work, doen't have time to post here, at least not mid-afternoon on a weekday.
by heyyou
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now not a good time to start investing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2724

Re: Is now not a good time to start investing?

That's a good way to look at it. On top of that, assuming all dividends are reinvested (which they are), it'll be rather hard to walk out after 20 years with less money than I put in, right? You are doing fine. That discomfort about losing is just part of being an investor in stock mutual funds. Ye...
by heyyou
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the 3 fund portfolio seem somewhat flawed?
Replies: 79
Views: 5977

Re: Does the 3 fund portfolio seem somewhat flawed?

Trev H's four fund equity portfolio of Vanguard funds is 4 x 25% of domestic LB & SCV, foreign LV & SB. Those take advantage of VG's somewhat open boundaries between cap sizes and between value exposures, and yes, they are cap weighted within their exposures. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop...
by heyyou
Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10213

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Trev H settled the performance debate for BHs in 2009. A portfolio of 25% each of domestic LB, SV, and foreign LV, SB, all from VG, outperforms VG's Total Market fund. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=38374 My 1/N allocation has done well enough to suit me, which does matter. Th...
by heyyou
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7731

Re: Heading for a top?

by munemaker » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:27 am It seems like you are trying to outsmart the market. Just stay the course and you will do fine. Well said. Yes, there will be a crash someday, and no one knows when. It has been shown that the best prep is to just accept those wild market fluctuations in your...
by heyyou
Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?
Replies: 117
Views: 7262

Re: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?

Sequence risk (SR) does not happen suddenly. It is the result of slightly overspending what your portfolio will support, for decades before you run out of money, having started retirement at the most unlucky year or two. Bengen's SWR is based only on the value of your retirement day assets. We will ...
by heyyou
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you eventually get accustomed to your higher balances?
Replies: 47
Views: 6751

Re: Do you eventually get accustomed to your higher balances?

It helps to write down what you’re going to do upon experiencing a financial event, and then FOLLOWING IT. You don’t lose the $50k unless you sell because you can’t handle watching things drop. If you expect it to occur, it won’t bother you. I watched my portfolio decline by about $120k over a few ...
by heyyou
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA
Replies: 76
Views: 8061

Re: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA

60/40 is good enough until you are absolutely sure that you need to change it to something else. Then do change it. Maybe write in your investment policy statement that you can only change your allocation every five? years. Think about your personal history. Consider how you felt during the 2000 Cra...
by heyyou
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 6133

Re: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years

FSPTX went up 49% in 2017 and averages 13% over 10 years.
What is the average for the nine other years that does not include the 49% year?
by heyyou
Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SWR, different perspective.
Replies: 38
Views: 3014

Re: SWR, different perspective.

I doubt there is info about when retirees switch from traveling expenses while healthy, to less traveling due to aging. If there was, it would be much too broad to apply to financial planning for an individual, then there are couples with one person healthy and one not, so their traveling ceases whi...
by heyyou
Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative Investments
Replies: 29
Views: 2062

Re: Alternative Investments

Some of the geezers here have seen so many crashes and recoveries that they are no longer intimidated by transient portfolio losses. They view them as intrinsic with portfolio gains, thus the losses are just aggravations, not something to be avoided. They expect that they will often not get to keep ...
by heyyou
Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SWR, different perspective.
Replies: 38
Views: 3014

Re: SWR, different perspective.

Depending on your expected longevity, look into buying a ladder of annuities periodically purchased over a decade (interest rate diversification), using most of your fund assets, and start spending all of your steady income from every source. Put your few remaining fund assets in a 2050 retirement f...
by heyyou
Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bloomberg--Fidelity has half the top 10 best performers among the biggest domestic equity funds this year
Replies: 7
Views: 1264

Re: Bloomberg--Fidelity has half the top 10 best performers among the biggest domestic equity funds this year

A data point of one year of performance is just allocation porn when our investing period is from our first full time job until each of us croaks. Probably would be a good idea to use a multi-decade view and not even bother with watching the annual winners, since we only need good enough performance...
by heyyou
Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds Have Best Year Since 2013
Replies: 6
Views: 453

Re: Hedge Funds Have Best Year Since 2013

Hedge Funds Have Best Year Since 2013
Who cares?
Been there, lost 100% of the principal.
by heyyou
Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bloomberg--Fidelity has half the top 10 best performers among the biggest domestic equity funds this year
Replies: 7
Views: 1264

Re: Bloomberg--Fidelity has half the top 10 best performers among the biggest domestic equity funds this year

How many funds does Fidelity offer? Five top funds is great, but Fidelity would be expected to have more top funds than smaller shops, and has the assets to sustain funds while waiting for the market to fit their strategies. I'm a former investor of Fi's Magellan fund in the 1980s, after the run-up ...
by heyyou
Mon Dec 25, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation can cream bonds VBTLX vs VSCSX
Replies: 42
Views: 3477

Re: Inflation can cream bonds VBTLX vs VSCSX

I think 2018 will be great. But as I look into 2019 I wonder if we will see inflation. I know that I don't know. That frees me from needing to try to guess what will happen next. Saving more was what helped us to retire early with less emphasis on achieving superb market returns, and expecting to a...
by heyyou
Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you include your house in your net worth if you own it outright?
Replies: 89
Views: 6455

Re: Do you include your house in your net worth if you own it outright?

For retirement planning, I only look at investment assets. Our house, car, etc. are excluded. I agree. In retirement, what matters more is retirement income minus housing costs. My house is not a major investment, thus a minor expense in retirement. Maybe it is her house since she is expected to ou...
by heyyou
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have trouble standing firm on your asset allocation?
Replies: 45
Views: 3728

Re: Do you have trouble standing firm on your asset allocation?

No, I stand firm with my 1/N allocation since it suits me. I also like stews, stir fry, and chopped up, mixed salads. For the OP, those small 5% adjustments that occupy your thoughts, are not much tinkering. In the long run, that level of tinkering will not cost you much, maybe a little bit for unlu...
by heyyou
Sun Dec 24, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10499

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

Seems like a good preservation portfolio in retirement, since you could spend from just the bonds side while waiting for the SCV portion to grow. Reduced sequence risk if you can avoid selling any equities at reduced prices for the first decade of retirement, assuming the short term bonds would be o...
by heyyou
Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The extended bull market
Replies: 53
Views: 4215

Re: The extended bull market

There will be a crash, eventually followed by a recovery, then another crash!, ad infinitum . Pray tell, how could the next crash be much different from the past ones, or the second of those future ones? I seem to also have little control over my aging or that seasonal cycle that brings snow and col...
by heyyou
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early retirement pros and cons:
Replies: 58
Views: 6733

Re: Early retirement pros and cons:

Having been a blue collar worker at MegaCorp, early retirement suited me well. I found the perfect volunteer work for an introvert, so my first decade of retirement was the best years of my life.

Glad to hear that others found what suited them.
by heyyou
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?
Replies: 151
Views: 8978

Re: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?

We live to eat, but we enjoy cooking at home in retirement for the healthier food, than when we eat out. No dollar amount for groceries. No Winco or Aldi in our area. We shop the weekly grocery specials, patiently aware of the cyclical rotation of the meat prices and choices, and liking the variety ...
by heyyou
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone here purchased a home for cash (no mortgages)?
Replies: 39
Views: 3854

Re: Has anyone here purchased a home for cash (no mortgages)?

Transferred to a different work location in a lower cost of living area, bought a home after a few months, at the end of a local housing crash, so my home purchase was cash from previous home equity plus a little from my savings. Yes, I just continued making the house payment amount but into a taxab...
by heyyou
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value
Replies: 91
Views: 7693

Re: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value

At the moment, The Second Grader Starter, Three-Fund Portfolio, is leading the MarketWatch competition Since when does it matter which is the moment's best performer of portfolios intended for decades of saving plus decades of spending? Folks, there is a whole spectrum of good enough portfolios. Fi...
by heyyou
Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A meal with friends yields a financial revelation
Replies: 95
Views: 11746

Re: A meal with friends yields a financial revelation

We worked and saved until the pension credits equaled our spending then we quit our jobs, ending 30 years of work stress and retirement saving. The ensuing decade of retirement was the happiest, most carefree years of my life. My unexpected financial revelation was how joyous life could be without a...
by heyyou
Wed Dec 20, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do We Have to Wait Until Trump Signs the Bill Before We Can Discuss It?
Replies: 44
Views: 2723

Re: Do We Have to Wait Until Trump Signs the Bill Before We Can Discuss It?

Perhaps in the long run, whether or not we "prep" this year for the new tax rules, will not matter much at all. Patience is fullness. These days, any promotion about something being the biggest, often does not keep the superlative after scrutiny. Anchoring or focalism is a cognitive bias that descri...
by heyyou
Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VFWSX vs State Street Intl Index NL Ser C. Which one?
Replies: 4
Views: 238

Re: VFWSX vs State Street Intl Index NL Ser C. Which one?

Invest in the VG fund where subtle deception is not embedded. My employer's 401k was managed first by State Street, who was bought out by Citibank, becoming CitiStreet. In the quarterly newsletter, they frequently bragged about their institutional fund fees of 5-9 hundredths of one percent. That was...
by heyyou
Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The "Perfect Formula for Wealth"
Replies: 22
Views: 3395

Re: The "Perfect Formula for Wealth"

How much commission is paid if your friend brings in a new client?
by heyyou
Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lunch Ideas
Replies: 44
Views: 4347

Re: Lunch Ideas

Use the crock pot to cook extra meals ahead. Flour tortillas are filling. Try the whole wheat ones used as wraps. I like salad in a wrap, sometimes with a different dressing added to reduce repetition, or a thicker dressing to reduce drips. At home, slice the cherry tomatoes in half to avoid squirti...
by heyyou
Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have bonds in Roths as a retiree?
Replies: 35
Views: 2787

Re: Do you have bonds in Roths as a retiree?

Bonds in RIRA? No. RIRA is for tax free, long term growth, perhaps for long term care, so I try for equity funds there. When those fluctuate in value, I try to rebalance in other accounts. I try to keep my bond funds in my tIRA since their slower growth eventually helps to have smaller RMDs. Dang, m...
by heyyou
Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 107
Views: 8220

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

I like "good enough" and the methods espoused here, have been more than good enough. Patience and diligent saving have worked far better than any of my striving for better returns.
Others are welcome to explore for whatever suits them.
by heyyou
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return
Replies: 26
Views: 4106

Re: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return

The topic is about very high risk speculating, not dissimilar to interviewing winners of the lottery, after the fact. As a Main Street investor, what the Medallion Fund does or its returns, will not have any bearing on my current retirement. The info is the equivalent of porn, "Look at this, but you...
by heyyou
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 financial goals - what are yours?
Replies: 92
Views: 11454

Re: 2018 financial goals - what are yours?

If continuing to no longer have financial goals, is a goal for the 13th year of retirement, I'm set for 2018.
by heyyou
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What cause BH fear about running out of saving though they have big size of asset?
Replies: 27
Views: 1788

Re: What cause BH fear about running out of saving though they have big size of asset?

Others should do what suits them, and I have my preferences. At work, I encountered older people who were living on only Social Security (SS). I haven't always had the comparatively large savings that I now have in retirement. Was laid off for six weeks within the first year after getting my first m...
by heyyou
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 4065

Re: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio

Topic diversion:
Trev H's four fund, tilted, equity portfolio of Vanguard funds, consisting of domestic Large Blend and Small Value, with foreign Large Value and Small Blend, at 25% each, pick your own bond allocation.
viewtopic.php?t=38374
by heyyou
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 4065

Re: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio

but with less volatility An LP portfolio value will fluctuate far differently than the broad market numbers that are reported in the daily news, and touted or lamented by your coworkers. Your perception of your LP's volatility is highly important. Consider graphing the two for comparison, measuring...