Search found 2851 matches

by heyyou
Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 53
Views: 3170

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

Seems like when I try to dodge specific future risks, slightly different risks appear that were not expected, nor were covered. The article is very informative. When referring to the future, the words "if" and "could" are used very often. To get Larry's good results, you may need to implement every ...
by heyyou
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What UN-frugal thing do you do?
Replies: 163
Views: 7654

Re: What UN-frugal thing do you do?

Recreation equipment:
When working and with limited vacation time: Whitewater rafting and kayaking equipment
In retirement: Very lightweight backpacking gear (bought used)
by heyyou
Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2017 update)
Replies: 25
Views: 2425

Re: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2017 update)

Siamond, thank you so much for your excellent choices of graphing, showing both the whole history and the more expanded, recent (1970+) performances. Plotting relative to TSM is new to me, and it is very enlightening.
by heyyou
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4561

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

Note how most comparisons include whatever was optimal for that period. Perhaps a better question would be "Did slice and dice do well enough for you in that period?" My S&D portfolio did well enough for me to stay retired, so I'm happy. Wishing the same to others. Might be a good idea to choose wha...
by heyyou
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6633

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

Whatever does happen to interest rates, I suppose that we (DW and I) will just have to muddle through, same as last time, and the time before that one.
by heyyou
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: used Prius (or Chevy Volt?)
Replies: 29
Views: 1796

Re: used Prius (or Chevy Volt?)

Our Prius with a first generation battery, bought used, needed a new battery at 130,000 miles last year. We drove it (slowly) to the repair shop. The rebuilt battery from Napa Auto Parts plus the installation, cost over $3000 (state plus local sales tax 10%) at a locally owned car repair facility, b...
by heyyou
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer Asset vs. Asset Class Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 677

Re: Portfolio Visualizer Asset vs. Asset Class Allocation

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=38374 To second the four fund, slice and dice allocation suggested by Steve Roy above, this is the link, but the first couple of pages are sufficient, you don't need to read all 15 pages. VG is known for lack of purity in its funds but Trev H's ...
by heyyou
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 160
Views: 11150

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

Same stuff, different calendar. Without the volatility, equities would not pay what they do.
by heyyou
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you use the "4% rule" during retirement?
Replies: 68
Views: 8228

Re: How many of you use the "4% rule" during retirement?

We've recently retired, in a VLCOL area. Our actual withdrawal rate is low enough that I'm not going to do these calculations (let alone the more complicated versions) except maybe for fun, or if we start looking at increasing our expenses hugely.
We do the same.
by heyyou
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16846

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

We have no retirement income worries since we live in a paid off house near a small town in fly over country. DW is a slightly better tight-wad than I am. My no-COLA pension, near the same size as my SS at age 70, will together be more than we ever grossed when working. Our portfolio can replace the...
by heyyou
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?
Replies: 77
Views: 6416

Re: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?

For motivation about a car trip, read " Blue Highways ." From Wikipedia: Blue Highways is an autobiographical travel book, published in 1982, by William Least Heat-Moon, born William Trogdon. In 1978, after separating from his wife and losing his job as a teacher, Heat-Moon, 38 at the time, took an ...
by heyyou
Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions of the Money for the Rest of Us Model Portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1169

Re: Opinions of the Money for the Rest of Us Model Portfolio

18-16-8-8 Pray tell of the advantage of having 18% in one fund but only 16% in the other stock fund? Is is unlucky to have odd numbers like 17% each plus 8 & 8, or 15-15-10-10? Last time I checked, REIT funds owned stocks in businesses with a specialized requirement about how the income is distribut...
by heyyou
Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?
Replies: 55
Views: 5252

Re: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?

has almost Buffett like returns since 1994. However with rates going up it's gone from $67 to $47 in no time at all
There's that dang risk & reward again, seems like I just can't get away from it when I'm investing.
by heyyou
Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 70
Views: 4119

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

What they said above. Note that the media need to have attention getting headlines every day. Those thousand point drops are now within the normal volatility of 4% of 25,000, but they are reported as THOUSAND POINT DROP!!! in order to gain attention. J.P. Morgan, a financier who died in 1913, when a...
by heyyou
Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?
Replies: 77
Views: 6416

Re: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?

Buy a highway atlas and just drive south until the weather is warmer. 60 degrees in the daytime with 40 at night will feel good to most snowbirds. Fly to Las Vegas then drive for a half day to the scenic national parks but watch the elevation to stay away from the snowy, high country. Near the Color...
by heyyou
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What did you do: Life Annuity or Survivorship?
Replies: 14
Views: 960

Re: What did you do: Life Annuity or Survivorship?

We wanted my no-COLA pension as the bridge to my SS at age 70. At retirement, I was 55 and she was 46 so the pension's spousal benefit looked expensive then, plus her mediocre health and family longevity were factors in our choice to not take the spousal benefit.
by heyyou
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10379

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

Collaterized Commodities Futures funds were designed to fit the known past. They too were marketed as being resilient in multiple environments, but did not perform in the one future that did occur. It is noticeable over time, that there are new offerings to the public for whatever is freshly perceiv...
by heyyou
Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The stock market is officially in a correction... here's what usually happens next"
Replies: 83
Views: 13195

Re: "The stock market is officially in a correction... here's what usually happens next"

With all this talk about a correction, I suppose I will check my account balances after the end of this month, same as always.

As mentioned by others, so far this is just a normal fluctuation.
by heyyou
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this strategy make sense in a falling market?
Replies: 19
Views: 2179

Re: Does this strategy make sense in a falling market?

Go ahead and do it. Some of us here had to learn what not to do, by experiencing it for ourselves. Nietzsche was right about how learning lessons the hard way, makes them more memorable. The worst that can happen will be for you to guess right the first time, then escalate your investment size, to t...
by heyyou
Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How often should you/do you rebalance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1079

Re: How often should you/do you rebalance?

To the above, saving more is the easiest way to boost portfolio size.
by heyyou
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10379

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

So there is no certainty, risk is immutable, and we should expect to need to adapt to whatever the future presents to us. Is the problem our expectation of there being some certainty if we just write a better spending program or devise a better mutual fund? Those who are prudent with their money wil...
by heyyou
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Being a Disciplined Investor - How do you avoid temptations?
Replies: 41
Views: 2718

Re: Being a Disciplined Investor - How do you avoid temptations?

Having lost so much early and often that my portfolio would now be worth double if I hadn't speculated, I know that I don't know. Since growing wiser, indexing paid well enough to retire at 55 (pension bridge to SS) so that reinforces my staying on the path. Thirty five years ago, my worst investmen...
by heyyou
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: we need an individual stock sub forum
Replies: 31
Views: 1278

Re: we need an individual stock sub forum

On this topic, that "we" does not include me, but my slice and dice portfolio is also out of step with the TSM advocates.
by heyyou
Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2226

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

Will the timing of the 2018 Roth conversion really matter in the distant future? Yes, a series of annual conversions will make a difference. Yes, we can later calculate what would have been the optimal date for each of the conversions and lament the losses, but only in hindsight. Glass half full, ha...
by heyyou
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When diversification doesn’t work
Replies: 33
Views: 2633

Re: When diversification doesn’t work

There are no sure things nor guarantees on any market components. Risk seems to always be a step ahead of whatever we try to do to avoid it. Often, someone is touting that their product is perfect but history shows that is just a salesperson's pitch. Whatever you learned from the recent event is a g...
by heyyou
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Criteria used to make Roth Conversion decision
Replies: 39
Views: 2712

Re: Criteria used to make Roth Conversion decision

I wish I had charts and calculators to quote, but I don't. So far, delayed gratification has worked so well, that Roth conversions in retirement just seemed like a good idea. Having retired at 55, no one conversion was special, but the sum of the last dozen conversions looks good. As mentioned by so...
by heyyou
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 94
Views: 6541

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

How Do You View It? Others are welcome to do what suits them, while I do what suits me. I like near equal slices of most of the size and value categories. I'm not trying for portfolio out-performance. With my high susceptibility to behavioral biases, I choose to hopefully own a little of whatever d...
by heyyou
Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of returns for early retiree
Replies: 14
Views: 2427

Re: Sequence of returns for early retiree

And what happens when it takes 15 years to get to 120% and you only have 12 years of bonds?:) When the bonds do get spent, the WDs are from the equity side. That is not the end of the world, the retiree still has more equity shares that have a chance of recovering their value in the future, than th...
by heyyou
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of returns for early retiree
Replies: 14
Views: 2427

Re: Sequence of returns for early retiree

Once your "safe" investments near the number of years you expect to survive you should be more confident in raising equity allocation. To be more explicit, consider how long you can live on spending only from your cash and bond holdings. Sequence risk does not sneak up on you. It is not so much the...
by heyyou
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Issues with market-capitalization weighted index funds
Replies: 4
Views: 411

Re: Issues with market-capitalization weighted index funds

Paraphrasing Winston Churchill: Cap weighted index investing is a terrible way to buy stocks, it is only better than all of the other ways that have been tried so far. Yes, we are stuck living in an imperfect world full of problems, with people who are quick to expound on them. Consider how positive...
by heyyou
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need some investment suggestion: will market crash big?
Replies: 21
Views: 2339

Re: Need some investment suggestion: will market crash big?

Put 10% of your savings into a Vanguard total stock market index fund, then forget about it being there, so do not check the price every day, since that can ruin your evening. Instead of ever buying a bond fund, just keep some of your money in long term savings accounts since that will comfort you. ...
by heyyou
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increased Risk Of Stock Bear Markets To Retirees
Replies: 5
Views: 1313

Re: Increased Risk Of Stock Bear Markets To Retirees

Retirees will do better with multiple sources of income, so the reduction of any one source will be less harmful than the chart shows.
by heyyou
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% withdrawal rate
Replies: 11
Views: 1382

Re: 4% withdrawal rate

Bengen writes to the financial advisor community, not to individual investors. In this 2012 article, he does address some of the criticisms of his 1994 4% SWR, including the assumption of blindly spending at severely inflated rates. https://www.fa-mag.com/news/how-much-is-enough-10496.html From the ...
by heyyou
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in an index fund bubble? Bill Ackman thinks we are.
Replies: 45
Views: 4060

Re: Are we in an index fund bubble? Bill Ackman thinks we are.

Bubble or not, I suppose that I will just have to muddle through whatever does occur in the future. Speculating about what could occur, is not dissimilar to science fiction, with emphasis on the fiction of it.
by heyyou
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 200
Views: 13732

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

This is more of a mile-pebble instead of a -stone. Been retired 4480 days, including the best years of my life. The portfolio is worth more than when we retired, so we continue to think that we have enough. We are grateful for Mr. Bogle choosing to offer the first public index fund, since index fund...
by heyyou
Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman: Vanguard, Other Bitcoin Deniers Will Eat Their Words
Replies: 47
Views: 6104

Re: Ric Edelman: Vanguard, Other Bitcoin Deniers Will Eat Their Words

For those who think that index funds grow too slow, and too little, Edelman's quotes will ring true, thus attracting those customers to his business. I can remember when limited partnerships were the hot investment, then hedge funds, commodities funds, now bitcoin. In a few years, there will be anot...
by heyyou
Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation and Constant rate (4% rule) vs. RMD-based portfolio withdrawals
Replies: 11
Views: 987

Re: Inflation and Constant rate (4% rule) vs. RMD-based portfolio withdrawals

Adapting your retirement spending to your recent portfolio value and your expected longevity is a better path than choosing to spend for thirty years according to only the worst previous cases based on one point in time, your asset level on retirement day. No plan about the distant future will ever ...
by heyyou
Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation in Early Retirement--a different Perspective
Replies: 18
Views: 2676

Re: Asset Allocation in Early Retirement--a different Perspective

Sequence Risk is based on continuing to spend a fixed real (inflation adjusted) percentage of the RETIREMENT DAY amount of the portfolio for 30 years, regardless of the portfolio's future annual values. (1) Who would blindly spend that growing WD amount without ever checking how the annual WD amount...
by heyyou
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The biggest problem in retirement is spending (not)
Replies: 118
Views: 10268

Re: The biggest problem in retirement is spending (not)

Consider using the RMD method or the VPW method if you want to spend more and leave less, since both aim to exhaust the portfolio at very advanced ages, age 105 for VPW if I remember correctly. VPW is Variable Percentage Withdrawal developed by some posters here at Bogleheads (BHs). The RMD (Require...
by heyyou
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead
Replies: 61
Views: 10929

Re: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead

Most multi-millionaires or billionaires are not liquid
And why would those people need more cash? They can cover their expenses without needing to sell shares from either their businesses or their portfolios.
by heyyou
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 15476

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

The S&P has plenty of international exposure and is as cheap as they come for fees. Yes there is plenty of international exposure, but there is negligible low correlation that is being sought when foreign stocks are added to a portfolio. The 500 are likely traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Whe...
by heyyou
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Happiness literature recommendations
Replies: 6
Views: 788

Re: Financial Happiness literature recommendations

Elizabeth Dunn and Michael Norton have written about spending and happiness. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/psychology-expert-says-spending-your-money-on-this-can-boost-happiness.html https://www.amazon.com/Happy-Money-Science-Happier-Spending/dp/1451665075 https://hbr.org/2013/06/how-money-actuall...
by heyyou
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Analyzing 292 different ways to generate retirement income, and the winner is...
Replies: 6
Views: 1124

Re: Analyzing 292 different ways to generate retirement income, and the winner is...

On the RMD based WD method: The appendix of the brief, is where the table is that has converted the RMD divisor to a percentage number. There the youngest age shown is 65, not the age 70.5 that the IRS sets for starting the RMD for the tIRA owner. Yes, in IRS publication 590, you can see the RMD amo...
by heyyou
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which tropical Island to Retire to ?
Replies: 61
Views: 5138

Re: Which tropical Island to Retire to ?

Here is a tropical coast, but not an island: the town of Puerto Armuelles, Panama. The country is south of the hurricane paths, and runs east and west with the continents connected to its NW and SE corners. The currency in circulation is US dollars, since the country only mints a dollar coin with Ba...
by heyyou
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities for rising interest rates
Replies: 10
Views: 529

Re: Commodities for rising interest rates

Commodities would have worked well in the high inflation period that was based on expensive oil prices, but not since then. Look at a price chart for PCRIX. Rising interest rates from near zero to very low single digit amounts could be viewed at returning towards normal rates, or reported by the med...
by heyyou
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 77
Views: 9105

Re: The Power of Working Longer

As with Bengen's 4% WD rate, the authors of the paper made some assumptions for convenience of calculating that do not fit workers/retirees who are living in the real world. The new paper will continue to be quoted in the future, in spite of the criticisms mentioned above by other BHs. Did the SS ad...
by heyyou
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 62421

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

My takeaway was that different crashes still do the same damage to my portfolio. The real estate craze was not dissimilar to the stock trading craze that led to the 2000 crash. I expect that future crashes will often be in different sectors, and will have different triggers, but my stock index asset...
by heyyou
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small-cap Value Funds ??
Replies: 55
Views: 5356

Re: International Small-cap Value Funds ??

Note that Trev H was willing to settle for just using VG's ISB (international small blend) in his 4 x 25%, VG only funds, clone of Merriman's Ultimate B&H portfolio. Yes, the imprecision is an aggravation, but the need was to own low correlating funds and those served that purpose even with their im...
by heyyou
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2166

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

Confirmation bias A tendency to seek information that confirms one’s existing opinions and overlook or ignore information that refutes them. For example, when researching an investment, an investor might inadvertently look for information that supports his or her beliefs and fail to see information...
by heyyou
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Mark Cuban -] "Diversification is for idiots..."
Replies: 26
Views: 3818

Re: Diversification is for idiots...

I know that I don't know, and diversification has served me, a blue collar worker, well enough to retire at 55, twelve years ago. So far, it has all been good. Others are welcome to do whatever suits them.