Search found 3412 matches

by heyyou
Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1464

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

Not an answer to your specific question, but I just use equal slices of several equity sub-asset classes, then hope for adequacy instead of seeking historical optimization in my future, total returns. I'll name that the "don't know, but don't care" method. I wonder if the affect of reducing Large Gr...
by heyyou
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model
Replies: 22
Views: 1737

Re: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model

At some point, with a slice and dice portfolio with numerous slices, there is very little separate reblancing due to any given slice not being far out of balance when compared to the portfolio, just skewed relative to the other slices. The investor can slowly rebalance with contributions or withdraw...
by heyyou
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium
Replies: 65
Views: 5178

Re: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Serious Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium

by Random Walker willthrill81 wrote: ↑ My post above showed that a 3-fund portfolio would not have done meaningfully better for year 2006 retirees than Merriman's UBH portfolio. So they wouldn't have really lost anything. As long as folks are not counting on getting higher returns from their tiltin...
by heyyou
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model
Replies: 22
Views: 1737

Re: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model

Trev h's four fund will serve well, and its components are conveniently located at Vanguard (VG). Trev's Four Fund uses VG's imprecise boundaries on its funds to an advantage, whereas other fund providers with more precise fund boundaries have to add slivers of other focused funds in order to get si...
by heyyou
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?
Replies: 46
Views: 7449

Re: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?

As noted by several posters above: Saving is paramount, and investing a majority of the savings in stock mutual funds is necessary. Learn to accept those inevitable price fluctuations. The lure of optimal returns from precise stock fund investing is just greed, and is profitable for Wall Street fund...
by heyyou
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anything you wish you had spent money on when you were younger?
Replies: 71
Views: 6472

Re: Anything you wish you had spent money on when you were younger?

No, not really. Money did not limit what I was interested in doing in those days--hiking and backpacking hours away from Phoenix, where I worked on weekdays.
by heyyou
Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial guidance for the elderly - Dementia and personal finance.
Replies: 11
Views: 1575

Re: Financial guidance for the elderly - Dementia and personal finance.

Any allocation is fine due to the short expected longevity. Ask the broker to defend the costs of his proposed allocation compared with a VG balanced fund. Use that difference in cost to show those listed below, how he is abusing a client of that advanced age. Many brokers have some level of licensi...
by heyyou
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone recommend a cheap cell phone service for text and calls?
Replies: 24
Views: 2034

Re: Anyone recommend a cheap cell phone service for text and calls?

The candidate might do okay with the big button phone from AARP, but it may not be the best buy on pricing.
by heyyou
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over
Replies: 61
Views: 5828

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over

While working, saving more will boost your portfolio balance. If retired, spending less will help your portfolio longevity. Yes, for calculations, assuming fixed conditions is easier to program, but being adaptive is far easier than trying to precisely allocate in order to get more from your assets.
by heyyou
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9320

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

This is not on topic for the thread title, but the thread has drifted towards longer returns than the most recent ones. McClung ran each of the equity sub-asset classes in a retirement spending calculator. As expected, Small Growth was worst, but Large Growth was second worst, so he leaves the mutua...
by heyyou
Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Techniques For People Approaching Retirement In This Aging Bull Market
Replies: 35
Views: 5224

Re: Investing Techniques For People Approaching Retirement In This Aging Bull Market

Our portfolio survival action is on the spending side, not dependent on investing yoga. Our method of dealing with market crashes includes patience and prudence, since history shows that a crash does not last long, it just feels like a long period. With 40% of portfolio in bond funds (10+ years of r...
by heyyou
Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are market downturns & crashes really driven by fear?
Replies: 23
Views: 1769

Re: Are market downturns & crashes really driven by fear?

Consider the dollar volume of daily trading versus the combined values of every market listed business, to see how a minuscule amount of crazed trading can change the stock prices of the entire stock market. My point is that both booms and busts are driven by irrational perceptions of stock prices. ...
by heyyou
Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value stocks are cheaper than they've ever been -- and could get cheaper
Replies: 13
Views: 2054

Re: Value stocks are cheaper than they've ever been -- and could get cheaper

Seems like there is always something else lagging whatever is doing best. Might have something to do with that diversification thingy that is mentioned here so often. I suppose I will just have to continue to keep all of those equal but different exposures in order to always own a little of the oft-...
by heyyou
Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree
Replies: 62
Views: 5813

Re: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree

Instead of statistics, do you (the OP) have enough in bonds to support your spending for most of the rest of your life? If so, your equity allocation is of little consequence. If equities fall by a half or a third, that is still years of spending left. Equities will not stay at the very bottom for m...
by heyyou
Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Merriman Aggressive Glide Path
Replies: 21
Views: 1459

Re: Merriman Aggressive Glide Path

Your stock/bond proportions will affect your growth AND LOSSES more than your nicely thought out equity portfolio.
by heyyou
Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7558

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

What is the "use by" date on the thread title?
by heyyou
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 131
Views: 16600

Re: Diversification Regret Index

My equal sliced equity portfolio will never be as bad as the worst slice and never as good as the best slice, but the only question with merit is "Will it be good enough?" Yes, it will with a decade of spending in stored in bond funds, a little pension, SS at 70, and our expectations to adapt to our...
by heyyou
Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two books coming in.
Replies: 12
Views: 1869

Re: Two books coming in.

Plan to read them all. Often, one author will resonate better for you, but it is instructive to get the same messages from multiple writers.
by heyyou
Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 61
Views: 6829

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

With equal slices of both funds, and several others, I don't know which one was best today, nor do I care.
by heyyou
Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Required Minimum Distributions
Replies: 57
Views: 4577

Re: Required Minimum Distributions

Waiting until December to do RMDs has risk of missing it due to life problems. (I missed an annual Roth conversion when my spouse was diagnosed with lung cancer, just after Thanksgiving.) The advantage is an investor receives cap-gains and dividends on Dec.10 for precisely knowing your taxes for the...
by heyyou
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Havasupai, Have a Sticker Shock
Replies: 27
Views: 3689

Re: Havasupai, Have a Sticker Shock

This could be the start of another hobby in ultralight backpacking. Bogleheads shop for used ultralight gear at the gear swap forum at backpackinglight.com https://backpackinglight.com/forums/forum/commerce/gear-swap/ There will be backpacks for sale there from someone because a different one is a ...
by heyyou
Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Delay Social Security?
Replies: 35
Views: 3344

Re: Delay Social Security?

Reasons to not delay: Poor health or disability-- Prior to SS, those former workers would starve when they could no longer work. No savings and no prospects of getting a job i.e. needing to drive from an inexpensive remote area to work at a low wage job that will not support living closer to work, n...
by heyyou
Sun Jun 02, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?
Replies: 30
Views: 3012

Re: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?

What has significant probability is that political climate will change and we'll get very high corporate and capital gains taxes. Seems like there are always a few more risks just beyond whatever we can imagine. I almost admire how risks morph/adapt hidden from the supposedly speedy market reactions.
by heyyou
Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retrospective good lessons from market crashes
Replies: 5
Views: 985

Re: Retrospective good lessons from market crashes

I will send a private message to avoid a thread drift from my titled theme. I can list McClung's portfolio in a different thread if requested.
by heyyou
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing the Market (for Roth Conversion)?
Replies: 14
Views: 1204

Re: Timing the Market (for Roth Conversion)?

As mentioned above, sooner is logically better, but once the Roth account is opened with the minimum initial deposit, you can then make further conversion deposits of any amount, anytime this year, up to your chosen limit, likely up to your next tax bracket. When looking at your annual taxes, also l...
by heyyou
Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retrospective good lessons from market crashes
Replies: 5
Views: 985

Retrospective good lessons from market crashes

These days, previous crashes have helped me to retire early, but not too early, and to view market fluctuations more like normal respiration and less like daily gains and losses of my money. I missed the 1987 Flash Crash by working night shifts during that period (no evening TV news), while my 401k ...
by heyyou
Fri May 31, 2019 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does money/lack of money preoccupy you?
Replies: 89
Views: 8023

Re: Does money/lack of money preoccupy you?

For this audience, perhaps asking the negative would be more appropriate? Who here does not spend much time thinking about money? Thank you to poster ohia, I too am a "money enthusiast" when I could be thinking about pro sports, chores at home, or the forbidden topic of politics. For me, that was an...
by heyyou
Fri May 31, 2019 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?
Replies: 30
Views: 3012

Re: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?

The worst period for stock returns, was not the 1929 Great Depression with its recovery then a second crash in the mid-1930s, it was the no real returns period of high inflation from 1966 to 1982 with its illusion of stock gains. My answer is, no one knows, and neither the average nor the span of hi...
by heyyou
Fri May 31, 2019 1:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 38
Views: 6109

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

A small complaint about the starting date and the initial portfolio size of the UB&H example: Who had a hundred thousand dollar portfolio to invest in 1970? Yes, Merriman just used a large starting number to show precision in the results. None of those sub-asset class funds had been started in 1970,...
by heyyou
Tue May 28, 2019 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?
Replies: 34
Views: 4100

Re: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?

David Zolt devised a workaround for how Bengen's 4% was too conservative for most years while failing for the one or two very worst stating years. https://www.targetpercentage.com/ A 4% initial withdrawal with annual CPI increases thereafter has a 94% probability of success over 30 years. If the ret...
by heyyou
Mon May 27, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you calculate your savings?
Replies: 8
Views: 779

Re: How do you calculate your savings?

In retirement, there will still be taxes, hopefully lower, so save from your gross now, in order to include those future taxes on your retirement spending. The taxes on your dividends and cap gains in your taxable accounts will be deducted annually from now on, thus shaving a little off of your pape...
by heyyou
Mon May 27, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What goes wrong after index enlightenment
Replies: 41
Views: 5200

Re: What goes wrong after index enlightenment

Rick's post belongs in the Wiki, somewhere. Behind most of those costly decisions, lie our behavioral biases, of which reading about them will be illuminating. following a natural human instinct to get further ahead an obsession with perfection. Here people become infatuated with finding the optimal...
by heyyou
Sat May 25, 2019 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding
Replies: 26
Views: 2007

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding

Some readers here are so ignorant of those nuances that we had to boost our savings rate to boost returns while working, then be prepared to reduce spending for portfolio longevity in retirement by keeping our necessary spending low.
More emphasis on "good enough" would benefit many BHs.
by heyyou
Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: This rake is the best tool I've bought this week
Replies: 35
Views: 5370

Re: This rake is the best tool I've bought this week

Federal forest fire fighters use rakes with metal handles, and tines similar to the OP's rake, and those workers need strong tools. That is a good recommendation for the design.
by heyyou
Wed May 15, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?
Replies: 107
Views: 6576

Re: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?

My reward for 25+ years of living below my means was retiring at 55, into the best years of my life.
Good luck to those who still need a job.
by heyyou
Sun May 12, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drill well today or drill well later?
Replies: 26
Views: 2138

Re: Drill well today or drill well later?

Separate the well drilling from placing the water pump if that suits you, but I believe the drilling of the well does claim water for your future use, and claims the location and distance from any neighbors' future wells and septic lines, and maybe against future regulatory changes. If your property...
by heyyou
Sun May 12, 2019 1:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving a lump of cash into Stocks/Bonds over time or all at once
Replies: 14
Views: 1298

Re: Moving a lump of cash into Stocks/Bonds over time or all at once

Lump sum is better math in the long run, and is only stressful if the next drop happens soon. Consider that your investment will be in the stock market for decades, so the next couple of years' returns don't matter. The S&P500 fund has averaged 11% growth since 1976 but with plenty of volatility, so...
by heyyou
Sun May 12, 2019 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drill well today or drill well later?
Replies: 26
Views: 2138

Re: Drill well today or drill well later?

Fifteen years ago, our well cost $3300 to drill, very cheap when compared to all the other costs of building from scratch, and it was good to know about its measured performance before we spent more on the property. In our rural neighborhood, some wells are much better than others, and that matters....
by heyyou
Fri May 10, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Emerging Markets Need Time
Replies: 60
Views: 4308

Re: Larry Swedroe: Emerging Markets Need Time

Who made the remark about being diversified includes owning some funds with poor recent returns? Perusing a Callan Periodic Table shows the range and randomness of EM returns. Our focus should not be outperformance, we just need total returns good enough to reach our goals, so extra saving in accumu...
by heyyou
Fri May 10, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years
Replies: 60
Views: 6836

Re: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years

What matters is which unique funds will have outperformance for the next two decades. Probably won't be those two, but VG will likely have a couple of good ones from the whole roster. Don't you hate it when some random poster suggests saving more as the alternative to trying to pick the next best pe...
by heyyou
Fri May 10, 2019 2:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3572

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

I liked how McClung used quartiles to show relative valuations among vastly different valuation measures (domestic and foreign). No precision remained, but the consensus was apparent. As for your desire for "similar performance but with lower risk," the market seems to repeat both lessons about inve...
by heyyou
Fri May 10, 2019 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Must value factor investors believe growth stocks will underperform in the long run?
Replies: 28
Views: 1533

Re: Must value factor investors believe growth stocks will underperform in the long run?

An investor only needs adequate returns so picking the optimal future choice in advance, is not required. It is likely that both growth and value will each outperform the other, during different time periods. McClung ran each of the equity sub-asset classes in a retirement spending calculator (page ...
by heyyou
Fri May 10, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks really "Chernobyl" risky for people near/in retirement?
Replies: 23
Views: 2917

Re: Stocks really "Chernobyl" risky for people near/in retirement?

Stocks really "Chernobyl" risky for people near/in retirement? They are, if you think they are. My allocation has 10+ years of spending in bond funds, before I need to sell any stock fund shares, plus spending a somewhat set percentage of each recent annual portfolio value has our spending vary wit...
by heyyou
Thu May 09, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Vanguard Funds besting index by 90 basis points (past 10 yrs)
Replies: 19
Views: 3365

Re: Active Vanguard Funds besting index by 90 basis points (past 10 yrs)

A datum: My index fund returns since 1980 were adequate for retiring at 55 in 2005, with emphasis on "adequate" plus significant saving. When I chased performance, I didn't do as well, so you go ahead and follow your perceptions of risk and return. There will always be exceptions since economics has...
by heyyou
Sat May 04, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: At 28, I Don't See How I Can Make Any Projections for My Retirement Amount or Age?
Replies: 83
Views: 6174

Re: At 28, I Don't See How I Can Make Any Projections for My Retirement Amount or Age?

No projections are needed. Isn't it obvious that you only need to work until you no longer need any job income? An early retiree, posting as "kramer," wrote that his savings were buying his freedom from needing a job. Save all you can now, this year and every year, until you do see that you will hav...
by heyyou
Sat May 04, 2019 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate if you don't need to leave a legacy?
Replies: 21
Views: 3278

Re: Withdrawal rate if you don't need to leave a legacy?

The RMD percentages on your traditional IRA can be used as a guideline but adjust the age by pretending to be slightly older than you are. RMD percentages are available for people of all ages, for those who inherit IRAs. Periodically spend a portion of your portfolio on an annuity, then spend all of...
by heyyou
Sat May 04, 2019 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2499

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Throughout the 1980s, I was buying shares at market high prices. Those are now my most appreciated assets. Consider what your investing horizon is, before you react to recent events. We only need adequate long term gains, while seeking optimal ones is a fool's errand.
by heyyou
Sat May 04, 2019 12:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 Fund Vs. Target Date 401K Dilemma
Replies: 21
Views: 2222

Re: 3 Fund Vs. Target Date 401K Dilemma

Consider a half and half allocation, but without selling any of your current holdings, thus you have to save and invest only in the new fund until its value catches up to the current one. Perhaps that will be a distraction from some other opportunities to tinker. P.S. The stock market can fall faste...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Insightful Charts
Replies: 40
Views: 3681

Re: Most Insightful Charts

I too agree with Taylor.
The Callan Periodic Table reminds me about what I won't ever know.

Mark Twain: "Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it."
Not quite on target, but it does apply to how the stock market completely ignores our wishes.