Search found 3636 matches

by heyyou
Mon May 25, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 41
Views: 1543

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Having started buying S&P500 index shares in the new 401k in 1980, since then has been a good time in the market.
Has there been a major market fluctuation this year? Up or down?
Over long periods, those are very common.
by heyyou
Sun May 24, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you hold commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1391

Re: Do you hold commodities?

Here at BHs, when the major advocate of owning PCRIX at a noticeable fraction of portfolio, stopped talking about it, that should have been interpreted as a sell signal, which I fully missed. A financial advisor who only accepts clients with mid-7 figure portfolios, publicly admitting a mistake here...
by heyyou
Sun May 24, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data
Replies: 18
Views: 1193

Re: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data

The future stock market returns will maintain randomness beyond whatever mere humans devise from using the historical averages. Do not expect your singular future to match the averages of the past. Consider choosing a somewhat conservative path because you are now trying to dodge future losses that ...
by heyyou
Sat May 23, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6886

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

The focus seems to be on doing better than the long term average returns of the stock market, while many of us untutored investors have become comfortable financially by long term, diligent saving, with investing for market average returns while enduring the periodic market drops. Seems like both Ta...
by heyyou
Fri May 22, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6886

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

Grog's comments, several posts above, are more articulate than mine. Taleb's hedge fund investors lost money because the market did not fall soon enough, before they tired of paying him to short a rising market. His personal strategy did not work at the retail level for public investors. His comment...
by heyyou
Fri May 22, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can retirement be this simple?
Replies: 31
Views: 4252

Re: Can retirement be this simple?

Simple, yes, because you have made good choices. You are adapting your spending by withdrawing a fixed percentage of each annual portfolio balance. Ignoring those two (adapting spending & remaining portfolio balance) is what contributed to the failures of the 4% plus inflation, plan. So many are loo...
by heyyou
Wed May 20, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too many people using index funds?
Replies: 54
Views: 12718

Re: Too many people using index funds?

Some of us supposedly passive investors own near equal slices of small and large, growth and value funds, some foreign and domestic, while we are in retirement selling from whichever of them are up the most. That is subtle price discovery, at a broad level.
by heyyou
Wed May 20, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At 30, what are some key financial milestones I should have hit?
Replies: 51
Views: 4272

Re: At 30, what are some key financial milestones I should have hit?

From poster Watty 2) When I was about your age I committed to myself that I would save half of any future pay raises and I pretty well did that for a long time. This is a painless way to increase your savings since you are not used to seeing that money anyway. This also will also help prevent lifest...
by heyyou
Wed May 20, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4269

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

Why is TSM index best? How about it just being less worse than any of the other choices? With every fund/index having some inherent risks or problems, TSM has all of those, but each is diluted by all the other ones in TSM index.
by heyyou
Tue May 19, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?
Replies: 18
Views: 2121

Re: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?

Expect to adapt as retirement proceeds. Living slightly below your means is always a good idea.
by heyyou
Tue May 19, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15401

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

TLDR all five pages. My problem with the SWR concept is the prospective retiree expecting certainty for 30 years, without any consideration of adapting to bad times, nor to the more likely better times. The assurance is a good sell for the financial planners, but is not good for most retirees, when ...
by heyyou
Tue May 19, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Property on wetlands, affect on value
Replies: 11
Views: 731

Re: Property on wetlands, affect on value

Septic issues, or the threat thereof
As stated by others, the threat of damage to basement/crawl space
The runoff increase from upstream development is a good consideration too

Sometimes legal assistance helps regulatory staff be, shall we say, more consistent about their interpretations.
by heyyou
Sun May 17, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should a regular investor pump in more money on ETF during this time?
Replies: 14
Views: 957

Re: Should a regular investor pump in more money on ETF during this time?

What matters is how much you invest steadily for 25-30 years, not how much you invested during the Spring of 2020. This period will just be another squiggle on the chart, 20 years from now. The stock market lost three years of recent gains, which is not extraordinary, it was just disappointing. Now ...
by heyyou
Sat May 16, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2437

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

Sequence risk can be mitigated by selling assets from bond funds to avoid needing to sell shares from any stock fund holdings. Keep at least decade of spending in bond funds, prepared for stocks to have depressed prices for that long. Also, consider always spending a somewhat fixed percentage of eac...
by heyyou
Sat May 02, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to sell low? Buffett sells entire airline stake
Replies: 63
Views: 9523

Re: When to sell low? Buffett sells entire airline stake

Perfection is an even higher hurdle than his past performance. Was perfection expected?
by heyyou
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirees who were close - how are you adjusting
Replies: 45
Views: 6132

Re: Early retirees who were close - how are you adjusting

Retired late in 2005, age 55, then the 2008 Crash occurred. We just watched our spending, not dissimilar to our intense saving in the last couple of years prior to retiring. We were so grateful to escape from our jobs, that we didn't need expensive entertainment. Staying home, no commute, sleeping l...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a new rice cooker from Zojirushi?
Replies: 75
Views: 5679

Re: Should I buy a new rice cooker from Zojirushi?

Adding extra water for brown rice, works fine in my cooker from WalMart, and I add a little or a lot of cooked brown rice to something in every meal.

Brown rice is low calorie, filling, fibrous, no added sugar, thus healthier than whatever it displaces at each meal.
by heyyou
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seasoned Bogleheads; What 3 Things Have You Done Financially Related to the Economy Recently
Replies: 112
Views: 11006

Re: Seasoned Bogleheads; What 3 Things Have You Done Financially Related to the Economy Recently

Have done? I've done nothing, it is just another crisis similar to many previous crises. The recovery will occur, somehow, someday, until the next crisis.
by heyyou
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I give blood now?
Replies: 23
Views: 1420

Re: Should I give blood now?

The post donation treats were only limited in variety, not in quantity when I donated last month.

Please do give blood. The media only report what is newsworthy, so the demand for blood has not likely fallen as much as donor participation has dropped.
by heyyou
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7112

Re: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered

So many seeking certainty for the future, based on the single best economy of the recent past. Well, good luck with all that. Japan was excellent until it lost its shine. Just expect to adapt as needed, same as when you were living within your means prior to retirement. View those retirement income ...
by heyyou
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: what are you doing with all the home equity?
Replies: 117
Views: 7428

Re: Retirees: what are you doing with all the home equity?

Sold the multi-story immediately after having the little retirement house built, paying for it as we went along. We could then retire with the previous home's equity in our portfolio. Retirement is far better than any other use of that money.
by heyyou
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Combining Investments with Actuarial Science
Replies: 26
Views: 1734

Re: Combining Investments with Actuarial Science

In retirement, with a 60/40 portfolio ratio of stock index funds and bond index funds (or a more conservative 50/50 portfolio), during times when stock values have fallen far, spend from only the bond fund holdings to avoid selling stock fund shares which will be needed later for their growth after ...
by heyyou
Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crisis Lessons (My list)
Replies: 50
Views: 4457

Re: Crisis Lessons (My list)

by retire57 Retired for 4 years. We've learned that having 1) guaranteed income streams and 2) no debt makes the prospect of a recession much less frightening. Working until all debt is gone, is part of good retirement planning for everyone who needs to use portfolio withdrawals in retirement. A st...
by heyyou
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm
Replies: 76
Views: 10454

Re: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm

If one's allocation and spending is a good fit, then these times are only disappointing, but not unexpected to eventually occur as the marker at the end of a record-length market run up. Consider how many buildup/crash downs have been seen by those two guys. Yes, they each have more than 25 multiple...
by heyyou
Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips On Downsizing
Replies: 5
Views: 744

Re: Tips On Downsizing

We went from three levels to one level for our retirement house, but kept the his and her bathrooms. There are books about easier to clean surfaces in houses, that we followed, but watch out for current, but quickly outdated, patterns in your kitchen counter tops. Be aware of seasonal and weather re...
by heyyou
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do most Bogleheads TLH?
Replies: 55
Views: 3262

Re: Do most Bogleheads TLH?

I don't bother with TLH-ing, perhaps I should, but that would involve paying attention to stock market levels, not just the daily up or down fluctuations that are reported as news. Are Roth conversions the tax sheltered equivalent of TLH? I've done them annually in retirement, prior to starting SS a...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in life?
Replies: 45
Views: 3155

Re: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in li

Live below your means in order to save for the distant future. Marry someone who is already practicing the above. Recognize marketing for what it is, and isn't. The truth suffers any time money is involved. Bull markets and crashes are just part of long term investing, we get paid to tolerate the in...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32132

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

If you don't know and don't care, and don't watch your daily account balance, you have missed the Fakes and the Cats, and the rally. For a supposedly passive investing site, did the virus take out the passivity? We are past a decade-long bull market, does it even matter what triggered the inevitable...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What time of the day is good to buy ETF / Index funds ?
Replies: 22
Views: 1800

Re: What time of the day is good to buy ETF / Index funds ?

from whereskyle If you're holding long enough, it really doesn't matter. by Ferdinand2014 » Every day is a good day to buy index mutual funds. Your expected holding period is the rest of your life plus part of the lives of any heirs. Every share purchased now, will be at a good price in a few years,...
by heyyou
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?
Replies: 122
Views: 7343

Re: Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?

Someone wrote about when to care and when to not care, and knowing the difference. Those with better memories will help me with the quote.
by heyyou
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you move for better weather? Did you regret it?
Replies: 108
Views: 8757

Re: Did you move for better weather? Did you regret it?

Moved from the treeless flats of the Great Plains (nothing between there and Canada to stop the wind except a few barbed wire fences), to live near a rugged area of Arizona, in 1972. That day, it was 7 degrees with blowing wind, at 7:00 in the morning in my home town. AM radio said 21 degrees was th...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone else just not care/worry?
Replies: 139
Views: 9622

Does anyone else just not care/worry?

Perhaps jaded from previous market drops and recoveries, but this decline does not seem to stir any emotion for me. At 70, and retired for 15 years, I've seen enough that I'm comfortable with a decade (or more) of portfolio withdrawals stored in bond index funds, regardless of what level, stock inde...
by heyyou
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most long-term-profitable emotion in investing.
Replies: 48
Views: 2629

Re: The most long-term-profitable emotion in investing.

by SimpleGift
detachment (as in the lack of emotion)...
well said
by heyyou
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns are better after a crash (but worse after a dip)
Replies: 2
Views: 416

Re: Returns are better after a crash (but worse after a dip)

At my age, any particular year's returns don't matter, but I no longer need several decades of returns.
by heyyou
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Drawdown strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 867

Re: Drawdown strategy

Both bull and bear markets are embedded in the history that was used to calculate safe withdrawal rates. All of the better spending methods these days, do slightly adapt the amount of each annual WD amount to the somewhat current portfolio value (perhaps using last year's ending portfolio balance), ...
by heyyou
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18181

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Japan was an East Asian powerhouse but then a crash occurred in their stock market. Somehow, the recovery stalled for most of a couple of decades. As a retiree, age 70, I don't have that much more longevity scheduled. Thus, I have some non-domestic stock holdings just because .... they are non-domes...
by heyyou
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An interesting observation about portfolio returns for the last 20 years
Replies: 16
Views: 942

Re: An interesting observation about portfolio returns for the last 20 years

I'm impressed with how randomness can take any shape in small sets of data which due to the money involved, is very important to so many. We wouldn't even notice this in weather events, since the history is of such little consequence to the urban public.
by heyyou
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where will you be?
Replies: 10
Views: 969

Re: Where will you be?

I stand corrected. My 4% was early info from China, and yes, I'm not following the stats closely.
by heyyou
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where will you be?
Replies: 10
Views: 969

Re: Where will you be?

We will muddle through. Traffic deaths in 2015-16-17, 40K people lost per year, with 39K and 38K, in 2018 and 2019. We, as a nation, are already used to adapting to significantly higher, but more familiar losses. Although I wasn't ever a Marine, "evaluate, adjust, overcome" can also be recommended f...
by heyyou
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study of rebalancing
Replies: 11
Views: 798

Re: Study of rebalancing

Risk and reward suggest that higher long term returns will subject the saver to a rougher ride than for those who willfully accept less, for a smoother ride. Others are welcome to do whatever suits them, while a S.W.A.N. allocation is my preference.
by heyyou
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's ok to do nothing
Replies: 20
Views: 2287

Re: It's ok to do nothing

On doing nothing, so far, so good. I've seen enough crashes now, that I forgot to feel any emotions about this one. It is just smaller numbers on the stock side of the portfolio. The 40% of portfolio in bonds is plenty for the next decade of retirement spending. By using the RMD portfolio spending m...
by heyyou
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity Check: ESPP Not Worth It
Replies: 11
Views: 651

Re: Sanity Check: ESPP Not Worth It

The single stock risk, plus the employer stock risk, are just too concentrated. Buy a little so you can say that you are a stockholder when at meetings. Yes, some one coworker will get lucky on high risk/high reward, and a hundred other employees with different start dates or different selling dates...
by heyyou
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190725

Re: Optimism amongst the panic and worry

The number of deaths is minor when compared to traffic deaths and cancer deaths which are so familiar that they are no longer newsworthy. The disruption and hoarding are significant aggravations, but no where are there masses of people dying per day. The elderly (and I am one) are the most susceptib...
by heyyou
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recent Early Retirees How are You Coping?
Replies: 29
Views: 3849

Re: Recent Early Retirees How are You Coping?

As an early retiree (2006), the 2008 crash pushed against my SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) limit. This time, not so much with age 70 SS starting next month. With a 60/40 allocation, spending only from the bond side (which is slow, indirect rebalancing), and an effort to spend a somewhat fixed percentag...
by heyyou
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 320
Views: 25668

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Don't know, and don't care. I check my monthly ending portfolio balances by reading my snail mail. My 40% in bond index funds may now be up from about a decade of spending to a dozen years of spending at current valuations. I like my pension these days, better than when I was working at that stressf...
by heyyou
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25880

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Ignorance is bliss. I check my balances ...... every month when the statements arrive via snail mail. With 40 years of stock market exposure, I've seen "It will fluctuate" numerous times. My not-enough pension is almost matched by my age 70 SS starting this month, which together are enough in my low...
by heyyou
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16423

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

"It will fluctuate" was said about a century ago. For perspective, to what previous date's level, did the drop, return the market to? My point is-- all fluctuations are part of normal stock market behavior. Since we do not like the market drops, in the long run, we are paid more to tolerate stock ma...
by heyyou
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best strategy in falling market???
Replies: 18
Views: 2751

Re: What is the best strategy in falling market???

The way it goes is: Owning stock index fund shares continuously gives you fully uncertain risk during all of every growth and loss period for a just a few decades, then you are an old, but wise and prosperous investor. There are no safety periods for risk and reward, no short cuts, no timeouts, just...
by heyyou
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversions - income levels/tax % levels - is there a cutoff rule?
Replies: 20
Views: 1847

Re: Roth Conversions - income levels/tax % levels - is there a cutoff rule?

planning to convert in phases beginning next year but can't get a straight answer regarding what income tax 'band' to stay below Pay your tax person to run some annual numbers for you, after their late April vacation is over. The first conversions seemed complicated but they became easier with more...
by heyyou
Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR: It is not a rule and it is not safe (anymore).
Replies: 273
Views: 18833

Re: 4% SWR: It is not a rule and it is not safe (anymore).

Bengen's 4% plus inflation, was the best of the first. Peter Lynch recommended buying 20? high dividend paying stocks, after looking at only 20 years of market history, expecting to live off of just the dividends for the entire retirement period. Now we know that near 4% of each recent annual portfo...