Search found 3543 matches

by heyyou
Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The difficulty of discarding frugality?
Replies: 95
Views: 6578

Re: The difficulty of discarding frugality?

Who says that we should discard our previous spending level when we can afford more? That implies we were dissatisfied at the previous level. I didn't notice that.
by heyyou
Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation significance
Replies: 16
Views: 1562

Re: Asset allocation significance

Invest in a 50/50 stock/bond ratio for the entire amount of your assets, then spend from only the bond portion expecting the stock portion to grow or shrink in the next decade. See how that bypasses some of the concern about what might happen next in the stock market, since you are already doing wha...
by heyyou
Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 106
Views: 9519

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

The caveats at the end of the article note the assumption that you save all of the income from SS. Consider what the returns would be on that investment. Would you put it in bonds for safety or just have a larger market portfolio, think of the differences in those two over the last decade, if you we...
by heyyou
Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stock market at its peak
Replies: 32
Views: 4612

Re: Stock market at its peak

Check the prices for those two indices at their peaks before the 2000 Crash. Don't you wish you could buy at those late 1990s market high prices today? Do expect the next crash to be as bad as the 2000 Crash, so with a zero bond allocation, are you prepared to tolerate that big of a drop? ETA: The h...
by heyyou
Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I know before doing Roth conversion?
Replies: 7
Views: 866

Re: What should I know before doing Roth conversion?

As a retiree, my taxable portfolio share holdings change very little from year to year. Using prior annual brokerage statements, I averaged my previous paid-in-December dividends, cap gains, etc. then converted a somewhat smaller amount earlier, knowing I could convert more after the Dec. 10th info ...
by heyyou
Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flaunt Your High-Mileage Car
Replies: 544
Views: 72278

Re: Flaunt Your High-Mileage Car

2019 update from my Dec. 2016 post: With 223,000 on my 2008 Toyota RAV4, I then drove it 2000 miles to northern Michigan and sold it for a dollar to my sister-in-law. She didn't have a car and a retiree walking anywhere in the winter in that part of Michigan is dangerous, so she didn't even ask for ...
by heyyou
Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 31
Views: 3570

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

Does minimum volatility give better returns? So far, yes, but no one knows the future. From the OP's initial post: I noticed that it had actually performed better than Having paid dearly for my education about the risks of currently buying into previous higher performance, that is no longer a direc...
by heyyou
Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13379

Re: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]

Not even near to being on topic, but saving more is an easy way to have extra portfolio growth. Yes, that is obvious, but more growth is the desired result from all of the above portfolio yoga. Individuals could focus on more savings instead of the emphasis in this thread of trying to mine extra mon...
by heyyou
Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market index investing - problem of induction?
Replies: 41
Views: 3600

Re: Stock market index investing - problem of induction?

Seems like there is always a new argument against index investing. I salute those who can define those concepts. So far, index investing is the best that I can do. I will stay with it, knowing that it is only better than the alternatives, due to my limited abilities. Thus indexing does not have to b...
by heyyou
Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me find some high quality cargo pants.
Replies: 63
Views: 5424

Re: Help me find some high quality cargo pants.

Having recently looked at what REI has on their website, the reviews are all negative about the most recent changes to their cargo pants. Seems they went from well made at a good price, to cheaply made.
by heyyou
Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13379

Re: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]

Why isn't anyone suggesting that either approach would likely perform well enough? We all seem to know to not chase recent performance, then we constantly argue about which portfolio is better than others---by citing recent data. Please consider the spectrum of "good enough" portfolios, and guide ne...
by heyyou
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10332

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

With all of this insight about the future, I suppose I will just have to continue to live within my means, spending a somewhat fixed (longevity adjusted) percentage of my portfolio each year, while others worry about what "could" happen. It is sunny outside, so I might go for a walk. Will probably h...
by heyyou
Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the commodities miracle?
Replies: 21
Views: 2739

Re: Whatever happened to the commodities miracle?

The strategy backtested very well after a long period of high inflation. Oops, in the following, low inflation period, it didn't work well at all, for the next dozen years, so far. The lesson is that there are always more risks than the familiar, obvious ones. Expect the marketers to always, soon of...
by heyyou
Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees, when did you start really planning your retirement?
Replies: 53
Views: 5018

Re: Retirees, when did you start really planning your retirement?

We just saved all we could for as long as we needed to, from the beginning. Retirement was my goal from day one of starting my first real job. At 50, the 2000 Crash delayed my retirement until the end of 2005. The 2008 Crash tested our retirement spending level but we came out okay. Do expect a stoc...
by heyyou
Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's "Rules of Prudent Investing"
Replies: 32
Views: 4510

Re: Larry Swedroe's "Rules of Prudent Investing"

Here we are, the blind guys describing the attributes of the elephant from tactile examinations, so our opinions may vary. Commodities funds appeared when the cohort that had experienced the high inflation of the 1970s-early 80s, were approaching retirement. As usual, the market presented a product ...
by heyyou
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy
Replies: 83
Views: 7847

Re: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy

I don't even remember being tested for all those symptoms. Can you lose something that you didn't ever have?
by heyyou
Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:07 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Tilt towards small cap value stocks?
Replies: 9
Views: 1209

Re: Tilt towards small cap value stocks?

My preference to tilt away from the amount of Large Growth exposure in the total market and 500 funds, so yes, I do have more Small Value exposure than the advocates for those larger stock funds. The 2000 Crash soured my opinion of owning overly popular stocks. Others are welcome to do whatever suit...
by heyyou
Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do early retirees survive bad markets?
Replies: 26
Views: 4981

Re: How do early retirees survive bad markets?

On Sequence of Returns risk (SORr): Just understand Sequence of Risk!!! It is not uncommon for numerous workers to retire at market highs, prior to a major crash, since those, shall we say "experienced" workers, just reached their special number. Using their prior, recently big portfolio value for i...
by heyyou
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversions now or later?
Replies: 13
Views: 2369

Re: Roth conversions now or later?

Start the Roth conversions sooner, instead of later, even if they are small, since they will become easier after more experience with them. Those early December dividends and interest from taxable accounts will be in your taxes, so do include an average of them in your calculations. If willing, you ...
by heyyou
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Success stories of NOT buying more/too much house
Replies: 109
Views: 18447

Re: Success stories of NOT buying more/too much house

We retired early instead of buying bigger houses, newer cars, or expensive vacations. Our apologies for not striving to support the high consumption economy. We preferred to invest in most of the publicly traded businesses that are selling so much stuff to consumers. Was that okay? Seemed to work we...
by heyyou
Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone know the ER of the Vanguard first Index fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 875

Re: Anyone know the ER of the Vanguard first Index fund?

That was what I was waiting to hear, was when VG went to no load on the index fund. (Note the singularity.) That was a far larger immediate cost savings than in the expense ratio (ER).
by heyyou
Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do early retirees survive bad markets?
Replies: 26
Views: 4981

Re: How do early retirees survive bad markets?

We keep our necessary expenses relatively lower, so our discretionary spending is reduced when our assets have a reduction in value. My withdrawal amount is based on each recent annual account balance. With a 60/40 allocation, that is about a decade of spending in bonds before needing to sell any eq...
by heyyou
Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX
Replies: 119
Views: 7873

Re: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX

Relevant, but not on topic, aimed at no one in particular: Have you looked in the mirror to ask why you are interested in trying to get higher returns elsewhere, than are currently available in the stock and bond markets? As usual, saving more and/or spending less are still good methods of protectin...
by heyyou
Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: equal-weighted index fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1582

Re: equal-weighted index fund

The best choice is whichever one the OP will hang onto longer when the inevitable bad market crash does occur. The best answer will vary with the views of the posters here. An earlier poster swerved from comparing the two S&P 500 indices into implying that one of them would be the only stock fund th...
by heyyou
Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Income in retirement from stocks/mutual funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2152

Re: Income in retirement from stocks/mutual funds

Long ago, Peter Lynch of Fido's Magellan Fund, suggested that new retirees buy individual dividend stocks from a list of then current high dividend payers. Note that we have not heard much of that recommendation since then. Well, there is only back testing, but dividend stocks have not performed nea...
by heyyou
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 142
Views: 15554

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

I will be glad when common fear-mongering is more recognized for what it is, a tool for persuasion, which should be ignored by all who are exposed to it. P.T. Barnum was correct about how often a potential customer was born (every minute). Perhaps he has inspired an editor who suggests attention-get...
by heyyou
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 6607

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

Whatever is best for the worst of times, will not be good for better times. Investors have to lose more in the worst times, to benefit more in the good times. We don't get to have it both ways.
by heyyou
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1010

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

"It will fluctuate" has been confirmed.
by heyyou
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 Misleading Fidelity Target Date Funds
Replies: 55
Views: 4445

Re: 2 Misleading Fidelity Target Date Funds

@ student The Fidelity shares were just labeled with a letter, the extra fee was only obvious when digging deep enough to compare fund expenses to the other share classes. The advisor did not explain that his choice of index fund shares had an additional steady fee. My complaint is that Fidelity aid...
by heyyou
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation likelihood and inflation protection
Replies: 29
Views: 2012

Re: Inflation likelihood and inflation protection

As mentioned, try to keep your necessary expenses low, expecting to adapt to whatever does occur. Trying to hedge in advance, has risks. Often whatever was the perfect hedge for the most recent problem, doesn't work well for the next one, or the next one is just so delayed that the hedge becomes exp...
by heyyou
Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Strategic Model Portfolios - Why???
Replies: 14
Views: 2710

Re: Vanguard Strategic Model Portfolios - Why???

Above, Max nailed the purpose, annual taxes on value's dividends/income.
by heyyou
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings Percentage Calculation
Replies: 51
Views: 3222

Re: Savings Percentage Calculation

Your annual statements show your savings contributions, your tax forms show your income, and the rest was spent. Yes, taxes are an expense, as is the house payment that includes your property taxes.
by heyyou
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 Misleading Fidelity Target Date Funds
Replies: 55
Views: 4445

Re: 2 Misleading Fidelity Target Date Funds

I've avoided Fidelity for the past four decades, due to their offering index funds with Advisor shares carrying a .25% annual kickback to the sellers/fee based advisors who were already charging other fees. The extra fee, long term, seemed deceptive since it was hidden and not related to the costs o...
by heyyou
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirees: Ever feel really lazy?
Replies: 42
Views: 5451

Re: Retirees: Ever feel really lazy?

Ever feel really lazy?
Before my nap, but I try to do chores afterwards.
by heyyou
Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns"
Replies: 33
Views: 3688

Re: "The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns"

A previous discussion had a link to the Callan info sorted above and below zero return, but I couldn't find the link that I thought I had saved.
by heyyou
Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17773

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

“The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” Mark Twain
Since we are a decade into a bull market, let's wait another decade to see if Value is truly dead, while others need to publish or perish on a tighter schedule.
by heyyou
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns"
Replies: 33
Views: 3688

Re: "The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns"

Now survey the responses above to see how broad the spectrum of personal interpretations is. There's the problem-- we each see the chart as enforcing our own current biases, from total market through slice and dice. It is a Rorschach inkblot for our perceptions about stock market allocations. Thank ...
by heyyou
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along
Replies: 33
Views: 3398

Re: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along

"It will fluctuate" is part of the risk. There is no guarantee about returns over any period of time, it is random and variable.

Why hasn't my SCV fund gone up more than TSM this week? I bought it last week, wanting higher performance. :greedy
by heyyou
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1586

Re: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?

Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities? If the criteria are choosing between my greed and others' fear-mongerings, my calamity buffers do not include gold or commodities. By living in a lower cost area in retirement, I'm capable of flexible spending instead of...
by heyyou
Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Learnings/Regrets from last two recessions
Replies: 91
Views: 12486

Re: Learnings/Regrets from last two recessions

I was hoping to retire in a few years, when the 2000 Crash occurred, so I just kept working and maxing the 401k plus continuing the after tax contributions to the same. Was retired by 2008, so we just lived within our diminished means. That wasn't confidence, we were just carrying on with what we kn...
by heyyou
Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad time to buy total bond?
Replies: 32
Views: 4686

Re: Bad time to buy total bond?

I bought numerous shares at supposedly bad times, and I still retired early. My lesson was more about not trusting the latest forecasts from the pundits since bad news is more attention-getting, but also about the insignificance of one purchase during a 30 year accumulation period. Risk and reward i...
by heyyou
Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing a Down Market
Replies: 28
Views: 3422

Re: Timing a Down Market

The above post is full of wisdom.
by heyyou
Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Full Mixed Asset Classes Portfolio - Diversification is the key
Replies: 12
Views: 1637

Re: Full Mixed Asset Classes Portfolio - Diversification is the key

The seeking of higher than normal returns based on the historical record is troublesome. The future is often just enough different from the past to thwart following the precision of the historical record. If that precision was reliable, giant mutual funds would be doing it, not just amateurs. I supp...
by heyyou
Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Happy DVC owners here? [Disney Vacation Club]
Replies: 61
Views: 5350

Re: Any Happy DVC owners here?

There I was, wondering what mutual fund had DVC as the emblem.
by heyyou
Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the S&P 500 good enough?
Replies: 48
Views: 6077

Re: Is the S&P 500 good enough?

Yes, the S&P500 is good enough. If you choose to add more later, you can.
by heyyou
Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 18
Views: 2085

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate

Modeling my retirement plan, if I plug in a high level of spending I can generate a prediction with an 81% success rate. Adding in just 5% spending flexibility, the success rate jumps to 99%. The above is the general solution. @ the OP: Expect to adapt your annual spending to each recent portfolio ...
by heyyou
Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 178
Views: 11727

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

Stayed at the job that had the no-COLA pension, while maxing every other retirement account every year. Married someone who turned out to be a better tightwad than I was. When my pension credits equaled our spending level, we said "goodbye" to our jobs in late 2005, after selling the multi-story hou...
by heyyou
Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting ourselves from sequence of returns risk
Replies: 69
Views: 4835

Re: Protecting ourselves from sequence of returns risk

Michael H. McClung suggests starting retirement with a near 50/50 stock fund/bond fund ratio, then spending from only the bond side until stocks have gone up by 10-20% since retirement day. If the stocks haven't risen, then spend from them annually until they do, but that would be after 10-12 or mor...