Search found 2657 matches

by heyyou
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing alert !!
Replies: 24
Views: 4179

Re: Market timing alert !!

OP: I salute your wisdom of seeing the dark humor this early in your investing era. Some benchmarks to dread: Losing a month's pay in a one day market drop. I quit checking my portfolio balance when I could have a good day at work and a bad evening after seeing a sizable loss. In a recession, losing...
by heyyou
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1786

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”
― Winston S. Churchill
Cap-weighted index funds are not perfect, they are just better than active management of mutual funds.
Costs matter and cap weighting is the lowest cost way to run an index fund.
by heyyou
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?
Replies: 34
Views: 2073

Re: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?

Some use cost efficient, market weighted mutual funds of specific portions of the market, to build slice and dice portfolios. Since the 2000 Crash, I do not share the market's view of Large Growth. I'm doing what better suits me to avoid my selling out during market crashes. One does not have to acc...
by heyyou
Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your "at peace" moments.
Replies: 98
Views: 11094

Re: Your "at peace" moments.

Feeling grateful now for having a life that includes so many of the moments mentioned by others.
by heyyou
Sat Aug 05, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it stupid to consider a defined contribution cash balance pension as part of my bond allocation?
Replies: 18
Views: 1854

Re: Is it stupid to consider a defined contribution cash balance pension as part of my bond allocation?

Losing rebalancing would be a pain. I would still have 10% bonds in the rest of my portfolio, to serve as rebalancing against 90% equities. As usual, VT nailed it. The historical optimal allocations are not 100% stocks due to the advantage of rebalancing further into stocks after market crashes. Lo...
by heyyou
Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8143

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

Dang, I suppose that we will just have to muddle through whatever does develop in the future, same as we have all along, through all those other decades filled with uncertainty.
by heyyou
Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using RMDS to fund expenses 100 pct
Replies: 3
Views: 472

Re: Using RMDS to fund expenses 100 pct

Short answer: Sure, RMD withdrawals (WD) are a good easy way to have the IRA last. The caveat is, do you want your heirs to inherit all of your Roth IRA and taxable accounts? That is a lot of unspent retirement savings. Yes, both of those are nice for your heirs' taxation. In his 80's, Taylor L. bou...
by heyyou
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone set portfolio goals and rewards?
Replies: 35
Views: 2250

Re: Does anyone set portfolio goals and rewards?

Celebrate a little after each year that you save another 1% of your income. Having been retired for a dozen years, I'm not familiar with the current maximum contribution limits on 401ks plus Roth IRAs. If you are not maxing both of them, that would be a goal to celebrate by rewarding yourself, after...
by heyyou
Sun Jul 23, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8379

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Others should do what suits them, while I will do what suits me. My view is owning some international is risk avoidance, not the seeking better returns. A Japan crash duration is just one of many risks that can be dodged if I am not too greedy about avoiding the cost. Total return for my mixed portf...
by heyyou
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone set portfolio goals and rewards?
Replies: 35
Views: 2250

Re: Does anyone set portfolio goals and rewards?

by stan1 » Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:40 am I don't like the potential behavioral impacts of tying rewards to portfolio performance. Seems like it could consciously or subconsciously encourage speculation, a riskier asset allocation, or market timing. Now I realize most here will claim they have full contr...
by heyyou
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Battery Life - 2008 Toyota Hybrid Camry
Replies: 39
Views: 4231

Re: Battery Life - 2008 Toyota Hybrid Camry

Our 2006 Prius, bought used at 100k miles, went to 146K miles before needing a battery recently. She likes the car, so the battery replacement is just part of the maintenance cost on what we choose to own.
by heyyou
Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6638

Re: The Quest for Perfection

History shows that often a few more risks occur than the ones for which we have prepared. Many, besides the eastern philosophers, have noted that striving for perfection i.e. an ideal portfolio, is a path to unhappiness since it cannot be achieved. Trev H's four fund version of the 8 fund Ultimate B...
by heyyou
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly
Replies: 14
Views: 1644

Re: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly

During a stock crash, owning gold and bonds are good pacifiers, distracting you from selling out of your stocks. Long term, equities have out-grown inflation but the owner has to be patient and stay the course. Buy whatever you will stay with during stock crashes, but not everyone needs every type o...
by heyyou
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: bob brinker on Roth [conversion]
Replies: 26
Views: 3226

Re: bob brinker on Roth [conversion]

I would counter that you can convert now and recharacterize and re-convert again next year. REMEMBER TO CONVERT INTO A NEW (empty) ROTH, so that possible recharacterizations are easier. As usual, good info from Celia. Note that Brinker needs uncertainty so he can sound authoritative. His answer is ...
by heyyou
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does mower brand matter much if they're all Briggs & Stratton engines?
Replies: 84
Views: 6852

Re: Does mower brand matter much if they're all Briggs & Stratton engines?

Currently, there is a cheap red mower with a small Kohler branded engine on it. In my town, both Sears and Tractor Supply have them with identical decks, but with different decals on them, and noticeable different prices. In the old days, at least the paint color would have been different, but not n...
by heyyou
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for dirt cheap commissions on DFA funds
Replies: 3
Views: 422

Re: Looking for dirt cheap commissions on DFA funds

Consider aggregating your periodic savings until your purchase amounts are large enough that the $20 trading costs are negligible. You could store your frequent payroll deductions at some other fund company who has less factor exposure, then buy your DFA shares annually or semi-annually, also after ...
by heyyou
Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fees, back-end loads, sales charges.....
Replies: 13
Views: 661

Re: Fees, back-end loads, sales charges.....

Get ready for the $75 account closing fee for each account at some advisors, not Fidelity brokerage.
by heyyou
Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Commodities ETFs
Replies: 35
Views: 1687

Re: New Commodities ETFs

Larry Swedroe stopped recommending commodities some time ago. Since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, commodities have not done well, much of this due to the cheaper energy prices. When an asset class has been down for almost 10 years is that not the best time to move into an asset class IF you are l...
by heyyou
Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Commodities ETFs
Replies: 35
Views: 1687

Re: New Commodities ETFs

note the date. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=128797&newpost=1893183 Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster Postby Bill Bernstein » Sat Dec 21, 2013 1:33 pm We now have a 10-year trailing return for the flagship commodities futures fund, PCRIX: 3.26%--just barely nort...
by heyyou
Wed Jul 12, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Sam's Club, Costco, BJ's, and other wholesaler clubs]
Replies: 274
Views: 13582

Re: Costco vs. other wholesale clubs

Went to Costco for tires on Monday. They didn't have the ones on sale, so I paid for sale tires and returned on Tuesday to get them. Thank you to those who posted about how to get in to have them rotated. I wish that I had gone to Discount Tire with the Costco sale prices.
by heyyou
Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 6841

Re: Why Simple beats complex

Is Trev H's four fund UB&H portfolio complex? It is slice and dice. It does have double the funds of a total domestic and total foreign two fund portfolio. I wonder about the number of stocks owned in each of those portfolios. What if you owned all of those same stocks in eight funds, is that co...
by heyyou
Sun Jul 09, 2017 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent absence of advantage for the "classic factors strategy"
Replies: 17
Views: 1365

Re: Recent absence of advantage for the "classic factors strategy"

The glass half full perception is, being pleased that the differences are not greater. The tilters have lost but only by a nose, so their dollar amount of loss is minor. Paraphrased from Mark Twain, perhaps the death of tilting has been an exaggeration. The randomness on the Callan Periodic Table sh...
by heyyou
Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value v. Growth Investor Characteristics
Replies: 25
Views: 1816

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value v. Growth Investor Characteristics

Been there too. by Top99% » Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:15 pm After living through the "trees really will grow to the sun this time" tech bubble I am definitely a value oriented investor now. Intuitively value invest just makes sense to me and I find the data very convincing. Another datum is McClu...
by heyyou
Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession?
Replies: 59
Views: 7902

Re: Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession?

Yes, there is a crash coming, always is, sooner or later. When will you start using your retirement savings? How long do you expect to be retired? By then, today's prices will not matter, but as an investor you will experience some stressful market events along the way. Market uncertainty is constan...
by heyyou
Tue Jul 04, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roll call Warren Buffet 90/10 portfolio
Replies: 89
Views: 14244

Re: Roll call Warren Buffet 90/10 portfolio

With a higher bond allocation, you can spend from bonds before you sell any depressed stocks, retired or not. If a severe crash occurs, your job may not last either. Even state and local governments will cut back when tax revenues drop. I believe Buffett (with two "t"s and a W) said his cu...
by heyyou
Tue Jul 04, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Newest Boglehead Millionaire
Replies: 23
Views: 4008

Re: Newest Boglehead Millionair

Welcome to the club of part-time millionaires. The stock market is not through with abusing the value of our savings accounts, but with our experiences from the School of Hard Knocks, we now know what is possible by continuing to save. Mr. Jack Bogle's "It is simple, but not easy" remark h...
by heyyou
Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Clements' Perspective: Past Perfect, Future Tense
Replies: 21
Views: 2730

Re: J. Clements' Perspective: Past Perfect, Future Tense

This ebb and flow, a poet has well said, is the law to which we must all bow.
"Her Season in Bath" by Emma Marshall
by heyyou
Sat Jul 01, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What may have led to the US stock sell-off on 6-30-17 at 3:50-4:00 p.m.?
Replies: 50
Views: 5126

Re: What may have led to the US stock sell-off on 6-30-17 at 3:50-4:00 p.m.?

End of quarter mutual fund adjustments as mentioned by others--profit taking since the Friday micro drop is insignificant to the 2017 gains.
by heyyou
Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A plan for retirement withdrawal--opinions, please
Replies: 20
Views: 2066

Re: A plan for retirement withdrawal--opinions, please

Choosing variable withdrawals (WDs) based on a fixed percentage of recent portfolio value is very wise since that buffers the sequence of return risk that can occur with (1) high retirement day stock valuations and (2) continuing to spend at that level plus boosting the WDs by inflation. Smoothing y...
by heyyou
Sat Jul 01, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chances of delaying Social Security to age 70. Realistic?
Replies: 54
Views: 4072

Re: Chances of delaying Social Security to age 70. Realistic?

At the OP: Have you noticed how there is always some risk, almost nothing in personal finance is certain? So far, delayed gratification has paid us well, so we are delaying to age 70 on the higher earner, to benefit whichever one of us survives longer. We are not concerned about trying to get the mo...
by heyyou
Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chances of delaying Social Security to age 70. Realistic?
Replies: 54
Views: 4072

Re: Chances of delaying Social Security to age 70. Realistic?

We are waiting until 70 to boost the benefit for the expected surviving spouse. Patience is fullness. That inflation buffered, higher payment is attractive to us. We are not focused on recovering what we paid in, and longevity is a concern. During the interim, we are making annual Roth conversions. ...
by heyyou
Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Highs - Why Invest?
Replies: 10
Views: 859

Re: Global Market Highs - Why Invest?

Why invest now? Invest now because fund shares cost less during this decade, than they will when you sell them 30 years from now, during retirement. Next years' stock prices do not matter since you are not selling any stock shares until you need the money in retirement. You have an emergency fund a...
by heyyou
Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 21
Views: 1513

Re: Variable Withdrawal Rates

A very good buffer for future variable returns is to spend a calculated percentage of each recent, annual portfolio value. Setting a spending plan then expecting it to work without modification for 50 years is comforting but not realistic. Expect to adapt over time to both the better and the worse m...
by heyyou
Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly married, new doc, new investor and new Boglehead in search of advice
Replies: 18
Views: 1964

Re: Newly married, new doc, new investor and new Boglehead in search of advice

Try to avoid boosting your spending to what you see at work. Someone will have the big house, someone else the newest cars, others will take the nicest vacations or have boats, and you cannot afford to keep up with all of those spenders, not now and not later. Newly married, you are happy with your ...
by heyyou
Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do BH think of this formula for an early retiree?
Replies: 26
Views: 3281

Re: What do BH think of this formula for an early retiree?

(1) Sequence risk is based on blindly continuing to WD at an unsustainable level for decades after a market crash reduces your retirement day asset level, coupled with no real portfolio growth for more than a decade. The emphasis is on the long period of time. No BH is going to spend like that. (2) ...
by heyyou
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"
Replies: 25
Views: 3974

Re: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"

from the BH Wiki:
Confirmation bias
A tendency to seek information that confirms one’s existing opinions and overlook or ignore information that refutes them.
by heyyou
Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 298191

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Returns for each slice will vary widely over time. That randomness will dilute our striving for precision in our allocation percentages and funds. We just do what we can. Who knows, perhaps our forced choices due to our account locations and sizes, will do better than the precisely allocated ones? S...
by heyyou
Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive
Replies: 15
Views: 2551

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive

The percentage differences that are being discussed are not centered on zero. The passive investor would still get an average return, just not as much as the better(luckier) active funds, same as now. Our world does not end if the active average exceeds the passive average.
by heyyou
Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A slice and dice question
Replies: 9
Views: 1178

Re: A slice and dice question

If one of the 9 squares on your M* Xray is 10% off target for a few years, I doubt that is going to change the longevity of your portfolio. To me, that flexibility is a feature, not a problem. Trev H's Ultimate Buy and Hold (UB&H) is a four fund slice and dice (equal sized VG domestic LB and SmV...
by heyyou
Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poaching chicken
Replies: 51
Views: 4316

Re: Poaching chicken

Buy the boneless chicken breasts to make it easy on the salad person. What is the problem with covering all of the breasts with water during the cooking? Does it dilute the flavor? Often the cook would be re-using the flavored water, perhaps without time to boil it down to a smaller quantity, but th...
by heyyou
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 86
Views: 6845

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

In retirement, my equity portfolio has equal slices. I'm trying to tilt away from the cap weighted exposure of Large Growth stocks. Having not forgotten the 2000 Crash, I'm allocated to what suits me. Others are welcome to do whatever suits them. With my confirmation bias, I prefer authors who tell ...
by heyyou
Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuities/Fixed Value instead of bonds as fixed income
Replies: 9
Views: 982

Re: Annuities/Fixed Value instead of bonds as fixed income

My 401k had very low, institutional fund fees of .05 to .07%, and those fees were often mentioned in the quarterly newsletter from the provider. The admin fee was 10x more at .7% on all assets, and that was always buried in a footnote, published once every few years. That is what I would expect from...
by heyyou
Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA with a pension
Replies: 15
Views: 1730

Re: AA with a pension

Not recommending this, but I considered my pension credits as my fixed income allocation during my early-mid work years. You know to not sell out during a crash, which is the purpose of owning bonds for those without pensions. As usual, your allocation should be tailored to your acceptable level of ...
by heyyou
Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What growth rate for your projection calcs?
Replies: 31
Views: 2757

Re: What growth rate for your projection calcs?

projection calcs? We don't need no "projection calcs." I just saved all I could, progressively more for most of three decades, until I had enough. Enough to not need work income and enough of the BS at work. The silver lining is the desired 25+ multiples of your spending is less on retire...
by heyyou
Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?
Replies: 127
Views: 13720

Re: Anyone else gotten totally bored with investing?

I too have become a passive, passive investor.
by heyyou
Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who takes financial chances and why is this forum so financially conservative?
Replies: 139
Views: 12893

Re: Who takes financial chances and why is this forum so financially conservative?

Who needs conservative? After buying my first house, just less than a year later, I was laid off for six weeks. A few years later, I made quick money with a $9000 investment in a limited partnership, so I boosted my investment (all my recent inheritance) to $50K in the next one. That LP failed in th...
by heyyou
Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!
Replies: 75
Views: 5797

Re: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!

There is always a crash coming, then possibly a recovery, then another crash and recovery. You specifically should reduce your equity exposure since you are concerned about a crash reducing the current value of your portfolio. The geezers here have seen enough crashes that they are familiar with the...
by heyyou
Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 375
Views: 52657

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I expect the complex methods to become more familiar as I repeat the usage, similar to Roth conversions. If and when one WD method seems too complex, I'm changing to the age-based RMD percentage applied to the entire recent portfolio value. It is likely to be less optimal but still just fine in the ...