Search found 34 matches

by incognito_man
Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 178
Views: 23582

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

Age 32 (wife 31). She is a state employee and in line for a pension. I am 100% equities. I have different options in my 401(k)'s and Roth IRA, but it all comes out to 50% US and 50% International. All index funds. Also have a chunk in cash right now for some significant home remodeling projects on t...
by incognito_man
Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 19095

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

This made me wonder how often, in the historical data, we've seen a decade of real [/b] returns at 3%. I can't recall seeing numbers like that talked about very often, so I spent some time with https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ to look.... I think most people have no idea how often real 1...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 18627

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

Thanks for the vote of confidence :D As a retiree, I could go back to work if I lost everything. Actually, I have a pension and am eligible for, but not yet claiming, Social Security. So I'd be a step or two above surviving, although I'd argue with "fine" if I lost everything else. I guess I though...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 18627

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

I certainly would not be "absolutely fine" if I went broke tomorrow. To me "being broke" means that I have no savings nor do I have a source of earned income. I don't understand what your point you are trying to make with that comment. Human capital. I highly doubt that you don't possess any market...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 18627

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

Interesting topic... Even among my friends and family I am/was the first to discover and share the wisdom of bogleheadism and indexing over the past few years. I got very interested in finance/economics shortly before graduating w/ my 2nd degree (in engineering) and debated going back for a 3rd beca...
by incognito_man
Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data-driven individual stock approach
Replies: 28
Views: 2159

Re: Data-driven individual stock approach

livesoft, I know you're a student of the market. if no one believes you, why don't you post your trades before you make them? I'll volunteer to setup a google doc that timestamps your entries. I do post my trades before I make them at a place where I cannot control nor fake the timestamps. I've bee...
by incognito_man
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 5945

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

my number cruncher machine/spreadsheet doesn't look at short-term returns, but I am anticipating a future annual return of 6.42% from all money vested in S&P at this date. :D Nominal or real? Nominal I think is pretty credible. Real? Stretching it from here-- we'd need to see some pretty big deviat...
by incognito_man
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 5945

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

my number cruncher machine/spreadsheet doesn't look at short-term returns, but I am anticipating a future annual return of 6.42% from all money vested in S&P at this date. :D
by incognito_man
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy
Replies: 51
Views: 5414

Re: Article--The reason Jack Bogle doesn’t fly first class says everything about his investing legacy

ktd wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:47 am
Unless you are really tall over 6'5 or big over 200 pounds, just doesn't make sense to pay the extra expense or points for first class.
I dunno. I've looked longingly at the first class folks on my 13hr flights to the other side of the world. And I am 'only' 5'11" 160 :happy
by incognito_man
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki article - Bitcoin
Replies: 37
Views: 5846

Re: Wiki article - Bitcoin

Since commodities are generally consumed, perhaps the strongest analogy is to precious metals, and in particular gold, whose main uses are decorative. Gold is not consumed, it just remains as a stockpile somewhere, in some form. Thinking about BitCoin has a high volatility version of gold is probab...
by incognito_man
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

What if one had bought dollars or Euro when they were first printed? Would one have gotten any profit beyond the rate of inflation? Yes, had one been able to exchange the current form of a currency for a disproportionate share of the new one. If I owned .000001% of USD and used 1% of those to buy ....
by incognito_man
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

1) If bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) are going to become a mainstream medium of exchange, then they need to capture a lot more value, more like trillions instead of billions. I think if it happens, it will probably take 10-15 years, mainly because I think it will be a generational thing (as te...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k's are for sheeple! According to some guy.
Replies: 19
Views: 3075

Re: 401k's are for sheeple! According to some guy.

I'll keep my 12% employer match, I think. Sheeple and all!
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the largest percentage of your total portfolio value that you have exchanged to rebalance?
Replies: 58
Views: 5362

Re: What is the largest percentage of your total portfolio value that you have exchanged to rebalance?

JeepDaze wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:53 pm
I'm currently 84/16 stock/bond. My target is 80/20. I'll contemplate rebalancing if I hit 85/25.
If you hit that, I'd keep doing whatever your doing. You would have found a 10% bonus no other investors could even touch!
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles
Replies: 6
Views: 1020

Re: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles

From the Howard Marks' Memo: One of my clients, the chief investment officer of a pension fund told me the treasurer had proposed dumping all active managers and putting the whole fund into index funds and ETFs. My response was simple: ask him how much of the fund he's comfortable having in assets n...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1918

Re: Shiller PE over 30

I'd feel better about something more systematic like adjusting for sector balances. I know this work on sectors. http://www.fortunefinancialadvisors.com/blog/the-correct-way-to-frame-relative-valuations BTW I personally underweigh the US because of the high valuations of the stock market as a whole...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

You are correct, my choice of saying "everyone" was clearly wrong on my part. A more precise way of saying what I meant is "I think it is reasonable to ask for that type of regulation" (at the exchanges). Further, I think that type of self-regulation is already underway. It is possible to both be an...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Please read your cited work carefully. You will notice that in fact it is trivial. The only thing stopping it is if the request to change the cryptocurrency to something untraceable were rejected by all exchanges able to do that. I did read it carefully, thank you. And no, it is not 'trivial'. All ...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Cryptocurrencies (not only bitcoin) can be anonymously exchanged for other untraceable ones. If there is no regulation to prevent that from happening, what is the deterrence from extortion? There really isn't much is there. Please tell me why you are focused on ShapeShift. Anyone could set up an ex...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

FACT #1: Anyone today could kidnap any child and force their loved ones to pay a ransom in bitcoins. FACT #2: Bitcoins can be exchanged to other untraceable digital currencies by using exchanges that don't even require making an account. Please dispute these facts and leave your personal characteri...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Maybe you don't have a child you love as much as I do ... You're just fear mongering. Did you intentionally ignore my previous posts? I gave several actual resources by actual law enforcement personnel that documented how they are actually using the public bitcoin ledger to track and catch criminal...
by incognito_man
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8562

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

greg24 wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:47 pm
For those trading bitcoin, what other currencies do you trade?
I don't (and never have) owned any bitcoin, but I did stick a few nice meals worth of cash into ethereum so far. I prefer it's utility to Bitcoin's. Please, the EntEthAlliance gives me a few more warm and fuzzies about its future.
by incognito_man
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 20309

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Your 5% fun money becomes your 3% fun money. If this happens, do you sell stock to buy bitcoin? If so, what happens if bitcoin crashes by 50%? Sell more stock? Do you see where this is going? Eventually your 5% allocation in reality is much higher than 5% if you rebalance into a losing asset. No, y...
by incognito_man
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 43530

Re: What is Bitcoin?

There is an interview on CNBC today with Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO. He noted that Bitcoin will collapse and it will end very badly. Dimon is not exactly an authority on the subject. Plus JP Morgan is a partner of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance which is notably NOT a cryptocurrency in and of itse...
by incognito_man
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails
Replies: 58
Views: 4200

Re: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails

:sharebeer I think what you are articulating, like me (not so successfully in my case) is an exaggerated example of the theoretical inefficiency caused by a shrinking number of active traders vs passive traders. I'm also in the group that thinks this is a purely fantastical journey as arbitrage opp...
by incognito_man
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails
Replies: 58
Views: 4200

Re: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails

I think what you are getting at is a different theoretical problem - what price do market orders execute at in a market without current bids/asks, the answer may not be the last trade price. But even that isn't necessarily relevant to the question of what happens in a world of nearly only passive i...
by incognito_man
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails
Replies: 58
Views: 4200

Re: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails

In this theoretical exchange, count me in the group that doesn't think the 'passive' market (everyone but Buffet and Soros) would/could trade directly with Buffett or Soros with one caveat: they (B & S) must have somewhat recently made the trade among themselves to set the price. i.e. B sells S Stoc...
by incognito_man
Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails
Replies: 58
Views: 4200

Re: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criricism Fails

I guess you lost me. I don't see where any shares were created or destroyed in this scenario. You have two markets: Active = Buffet + Soros Passive = everything else Passive is based upon market cap. market cap is share price times number of shares. Passive ownership proportion by definition = acti...
by incognito_man
Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criticism Fails
Replies: 58
Views: 4200

Re: Larry Swedroe: New Passive Criricism Fails

If any of these criticisms start to actually work, they will be quietly arbitraged out :moneybag before anyone gets to write articles and give testimony to regulators. My feeling is it wouldn't take very many active participants to keep pricing efficient, considering their motivation is to make mon...
by incognito_man
Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 43530

Re: What is Bitcoin?

https://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-technology-smoke-more-smoke/ I think this is a good read on what blockchain (and bitcoin) are and are not. Wolinsky's (founder of the Genesis project) advice at the end: One – investors need to differentiate between the few projects that unleash the Bitcoin-style ...
by incognito_man
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 43530

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The Ethereum Enterprise Alliance is about using blockchain + smart contracts technology, not the cryptocurrency. No cryptocurrency is required to make use of blockchain technology, which is important to remember when evaluating cryptocurrency as an "investment" based on any perceived potential of b...
by incognito_man
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 43530

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Jamie Dimon doesn't seem to be fond of Bitcoin. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he would fire any employee trading bitcoin for being “stupid.” The cryptocurrency “won’t end well,” he told an investor conference in New York on Tuesday, predicting it will eventually blow...
by incognito_man
Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bitcoin] question
Replies: 131
Views: 13641

Re: [Bitcoin] question

Leave it to humans to place value on a virtual currency in which massive amounts of energy is spent solely on maintaining the stability of it. Don't mistake my comment, I was mining from 2013 - 2015 in an area with very cheap kwh, with a very decent hash rate on alt coins that I immediately convert...
by incognito_man
Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bitcoin] question
Replies: 131
Views: 13641

Re: [Bitcoin] question

longtime lurker, first time poster here and just wanted to chime in. As a reference point, I'm a firm EMH believer and owner of a BH-inspired 3 fund portfolio. That being said, it's a bit of a turn off to see such negative (and snarky) replies from some in this thread. My feeling is that if one does...