Search found 35 matches

by Richard1580
Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market irrationality
Replies: 35
Views: 4057

Market irrationality

I was listening to Bloomberg radio the other morning when they reported that while Caterpillar had beaten analysts’ estimates for the 3Q, the stock was down 8% pre-market. Granted, the stock had been dropping (along with the rest of the market) since the beginning of the month. Still, it got me musi...
by Richard1580
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Full View transition to eMoney
Replies: 151
Views: 17512

Re: Fidelity Full View transition to eMoney

I played around with it for a bit today. It seems to be severely broken. Trying to link accounts (to major firms - USAA, Vanguard, etc) is both slow and erratic. At this point I just want to see about unlinking everything.
by Richard1580
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Problem for Active Management Isn't Indexing
Replies: 7
Views: 984

Re: The Problem for Active Management Isn't Indexing

Dead Man Walking wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:54 pm
Thesaints wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:43 pm
Their study indicates that only 28% of equities are held by index funds, active funds, and ETFs.
Now that is interesting. I can't help but wonder what the breakdown of the other 72% is. Provided the numbers are accurate.
by Richard1580
Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4172

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

The article was very interesting and ties in with a problem that I am currently noodling over - where to put my fixed income asset allocation? However, one sentence (in the linked article) really stood out: "The survey’s third-quarter 2018 estimate for inflation over the next 10 years is 2.2%..." A ...
by Richard1580
Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best way to invest my fixed income allocation within my IRA?
Replies: 6
Views: 769

Re: What is the best way to invest my fixed income allocation within my IRA?

Good point. I should have looked at that earlier. Guess I will make that drink. :happy
by Richard1580
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best way to invest my fixed income allocation within my IRA?
Replies: 6
Views: 769

Re: What is the best way to invest my fixed income allocation within my IRA?

About 40-45% of the portfolio is fixed income. About half of the fixed income is in the IRA. As I said, I don't anticipate needing to draw on it at all, but will need to start pulling RMDs in 10-11 years. This is more of an academic exercise than anything else. Until recently, I never even owned any...
by Richard1580
Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best way to invest my fixed income allocation within my IRA?
Replies: 6
Views: 769

What is the best way to invest my fixed income allocation within my IRA?

Question: What is the best way to invest my fixed income allocation within my IRA? Parameters: I do not expect to need to withdraw from these funds until I hit RMD’s in 10-11 years. Primary concern is protection of principal. Secondary concern is to maximize return but minimize the time required to ...
by Richard1580
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 891

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

We may be talking apples and oranges here, but for S&G's I went back and applied the hot hand theory to Vanguard's mutual funds since 2010. I ignored bonds and precious metals as outliers and just concentrated on stock and mixed funds. If I started with $1M at the end of 2008 and invested in the hot...
by Richard1580
Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 891

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

Interesting. Until I read this post I had never heard of "Hot Hands." After reading up on it, I can see the appeal. However, while the Hot Hands' CAGR is far superior to everything else when you calculate from 1999, its performance is both erratic and often anemic since then. VFINX (S&P 500) on the ...
by Richard1580
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “We have a lot to do, and very little time, so we must work slowly.”
Replies: 21
Views: 4110

Re: “We have a lot to do, and very little time, so we must work slowly.”

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:12 pm
"Measure twice, cut once."
Still have to make another trip to Home Depot. :-)

Still, excellent advice.
by Richard1580
Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice on Roth conversions
Replies: 24
Views: 2187

Re: Advice on Roth conversions

If you have the desktop version of TurboTax for 2017 you can model your taxes for 2018 - go to Forms mode by choosing View / Forms from the menu or pressing Ctrl+2 - click the Open Form button just above the list of "Forms in My Return" - type "what" in the search box on the popup - click on 'What-...
by Richard1580
Mon May 21, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do bonds make sense if you are more than 10 years from retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1501

Re: Do bonds make sense if you are more than 10 years from retirement?

Bonds provide very valuable stability to a portfolio. If you only focus on return but losing sight on risk, that is not a balanced view. This probably isn't the best time to look at bonds as "stable," but I understand your meaning. :-) The point is, if your time horizon is 20+ years out, and stocks...
by Richard1580
Mon May 21, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do bonds make sense if you are more than 10 years from retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1501

Do bonds make sense if you are more than 10 years from retirement?

I ran across an article that claimed that over the last 100 years, over any 10-year period, stocks did better than bonds 89 percent of the time. Over 20-year periods, stocks beat bonds every time and never failed to beat inflation: https://www.cibcwg.com/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=82cfb962-f88...
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

Equal pre-tax amounts is apples to apples. E.g., start with $12K pre-tax: either put all $12K into a t401k, or $9K into a R401k. Why compare any other way? You are correct that the tax differential has to be taken into account. The calculator is simply putting it on the other side of the equation. ...
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

Correction. I have been saying "tax savings" when I meant reductions in AGI. I only wish the former was true. :-)
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

No, it would be a $6,000 tax savings - to put $18,000 in a Roth it would take $24,000 of income with 25% paid in taxes. Putting money in a Roth does not give you a tax advantage. Putting $18K in a regular 401k (at the 25% bracket) saves you $4,500 in taxes. If you want to compare the relative tax e...
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

It is a matter of comparing apples to apples. You need to take the tax advantages into account. What the calculator is doing is comparing equal deposits and then factors in the tax benefit. If you are making the maximum contribution, then it is either $18K in the Roth or $18K in the regular 401K, bu...
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

True. But in the case of the calculator, instead of taking the tax out of the Roth side of the equation, they are adding the tax saving to the regular 401k side. This is why it is important to put the tax savings into a regular account and include it in the calculation - otherwise the calculation is...
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

If you click the "view report" button on those figures, it will show that you started out with a $9,000 contribution in each account, but since you have to pay 25% tax on the withdrawal from the regular 401k, its value (after tax) drops to $6,750. That seems correct to me.
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

Perhaps I am missing something, but the calculator gives you the option of investing the tax savings generated by investing in a traditional 401k into a taxable account (or not). Consequently, the amount going into either the regular or Roth account is the same, but if you contribute to a regular 40...
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

Getting back to the original question, I was able to find this calculator: http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/401-k-or-roth-ira-calculator.aspx After playing with it, it seems that the determining factor is whether your tax rate in retirement is lower than when you make your contribution...
by Richard1580
Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Observations on Market Crashes
Replies: 7
Views: 1623

Observations on Market Crashes

I recently reread Galbraith’s “The Great Crash,” followed by some recent articles by Shiller and others regarding the crash of 1987. While I was not looking for anything in particular, I did notice some common themes. An argument can be made that market crashes are strictly trading events and are no...
by Richard1580
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 3484

Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

I am looking for a calculator. Given a starting contribution tax bracket and a withdrawal tax bracket, I want to determine how long before using after tax dollars gives a better return than using pretax dollars. Example: Starting tax bracket is 15/25/28% AGR is x% Tax bracket at withdrawal is 15/25/...
by Richard1580
Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Altering AA for retirement
Replies: 5
Views: 857

Altering AA for retirement

I am looking for opinions on whether my reallocation plan makes sense, or whether it can be improved upon (given that everything can be improved upon). My current situation is that I have about 40% in stock (4% foreign), 30% taxable bonds (in tax free and tax deferred accounts) and 30% cash. Taxable...
by Richard1580
Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 71
Views: 15788

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

I'm focusing more on the Global versions of these funds now. I was interested in discussing this way back in August though! Saw that. It is an interesting variant, and will be worth watching. Of course, whenever I see an attractive managed fund blink its eyes and wiggle its hips at me, I can't help...
by Richard1580
Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 71
Views: 15788

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

I have been sold on the superiority of index funds for going on 20 years. I only recently discovered the Bogleheads forum and have been reading through it and the related wiki pages over the last couple of months. Simba's backtest spreadsheet was an especially interesting find, and I have been playi...
by Richard1580
Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Health Care Fund in my portfolio?
Replies: 42
Views: 5727

Re: Vanguard Health Care Fund in my portfolio?

I may be mistaken, but doesn't health care represent about 20% of our GDP? Personally, I would not put 20% into health care, but 10% or less seems reasonable. I will add that I have made a pile of money in the Vanguard health care fund/ETF. It is one of the funds I just can't part with, although I d...
by Richard1580
Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone use Financial Engines?
Replies: 50
Views: 52523

Re: Anyone use Financial Engines?

Reopening a VERY old thread. After a friend contacted FE and had what he thought was a very productive chat with them ("Have no fear, you can take out far more money than you imagined from your account and will never run out! - provided we manage it"). I will be having a chat with them next week. We...
by Richard1580
Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures
Replies: 8
Views: 1077

Re: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures

dcabler wrote:
Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:26 am
And third in the bogleheads favorites list of portfolio performance tools is Simba's spreadsheet. It's maintained by siamond - google it in the upper right hand corner search box here on bogleheads....
Indeed! I just downloaded the latest version and I must say it is quite impressive.
by Richard1580
Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures
Replies: 8
Views: 1077

Re: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures

You might also check out Portfolio Charts . Specifically, I think you'll find the Heat Map calculator helpful for looking at multiple timeframes at once. The portfolios are rebalanced annually, the numbers are real returns after inflation, and you can use this to study any asset allocation you like...
by Richard1580
Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures
Replies: 8
Views: 1077

Re: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures

MJW wrote:
Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:28 pm
Are you familiar with portfoliovisualizer.com?
I wasn't, but I am now!

Thanks for pointing me to this. It does just about everything I was looking for. Thanks!
by Richard1580
Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures
Replies: 8
Views: 1077

Calculator for historic allocation mixtures

I was looking at Fidelity's Retirement Analysis program and one of the features I found interesting is that it shows you the historic performance (1926-2015) of various asset mixtures (domestic stock, foreign stock, bonds and short term). Not only does it show the record annual highs and lows for th...
by Richard1580
Sun Aug 27, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of duration rate on bond funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2718

Re: Effect of duration rate on bond funds

Wow! I was out of town over the weekend and had limited internet access. It will take me a few days to digest the posts on this thread. I can say that my original question was answered, and while I do not understand the mathematics behind it (and do not need to), it does indeed function in the manne...
by Richard1580
Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of duration rate on bond funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2718

Effect of duration rate on bond funds

Starting to educate myself about bonds and bond funds. Currently trying to wrap my head around duration rates. The rule of thumb is that a 1% change in interest rates will result in a percentage change in the value of the fund equal to the duration rate. If a fund has a 5 year duration, and interest...