Search found 19 matches
- Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
- Replies: 1247
- Views: 142226
Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Most posts in this thread ignore an obvious and perhaps the most important fact when considering the US/Intl ratio, the US is the only superpower in the world that holds a huge advantage against the rest of the world not only in economy but also every other aspect including military. The fact that the US market weighs about half of the entire world market only confirms this dominance. Many people use Japan as an example, but conveniently ignore that Japan is an island country with limited natural resources. Great Depression was often mentioned as another example. However, it took place way before the US becomes dominating at the international stage. If you want to look at history, look at the most recent crash in 2008. When US market is do...
- Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
- Replies: 1247
- Views: 142226
Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Most posts in this thread ignore an obvious and perhaps the most important fact when considering the US/Intl ratio, the US is the only superpower in the world that holds a huge advantage against the rest of the world not only in economy but also every other aspect including military. The fact that the US market weighs about half of the entire world market only confirms this dominance. Many people use Japan as an example, but conveniently ignore that Japan is an island country with limited natural resources. Great Depression was often mentioned as another example. However, it took place way before the US becomes dominating at the international stage. If you want to look at history, look at the most recent crash in 2008. When US market is do...
- Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:32 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
- Replies: 1247
- Views: 142226
Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Most posts in this thread ignore an obvious and perhaps the most important fact when considering the US/Intl ratio, the US is the only superpower in the world that holds a huge advantage against the rest of the world not only in economy but also every other aspect including military. The fact that the US market weighs about half of the entire world market only confirms this dominance. Many people use Japan as an example, but conveniently ignore that Japan is an island country with limited natural resources. Great Depression was often mentioned as another example. However, it took place way before the US becomes dominating at the international stage. If you want to look at history, look at the most recent crash in 2008. When US market is dow...
- Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:04 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 2693
Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Challenge to statisticians: If markets are 100%, or 95%, or 90% "efficient", can you compute the odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund posting these annual returns since 1988? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/how-renaissance-s-medallion-fund-became-finance-s-blackest-box There is a tax case outstanding against them. Apparently if they lose it, most of their performance disappears with a "poof". I don't remember where I read that, but it was absolutely fascinating, if only because I had bought the hype. They are certainly the fund that no one has ever cracked the magic-- and AFAIK they've never lost an executive to another hedge fund-- they stay with the firm, or they retire. Link https://www.nytimes....
- Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: seeking advice on asset allocation, or is Vanguard crazy
- Replies: 26
- Views: 3555
Re: seeking advice on asset allocation, or is Vanguard crazy
Vanguard's asset allocation calculator recommends a 80/20 retirement portfolio for me based on their series of questions. Their target fund for my age, target 2035, is 80/20. My current AA is 72/28. I know age in bonds has fallen out of fashion, but that recommendation is bonds = age -28! Am I depriving myself of higher returns by being too conservative? I realize there is no right answer, just interested in opinions. age 48 goal is $3 million + by retirement at age 65-70, so 20 years retirement assets $550k in the market (I know, it should be more but my income wasn't always this high) income $450k/ year gross, physician, secure job $400k in home equity, home paid off in 5 years risk tolerance is medium to more aggressive (Survived 2008 w...
- Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:45 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: seeking advice on asset allocation, or is Vanguard crazy
- Replies: 26
- Views: 3555
Re: seeking advice on asset allocation, or is Vanguard crazy
Vanguard's asset allocation calculator recommends a 80/20 retirement portfolio for me based on their series of questions. Their target fund for my age, target 2035, is 80/20. My current AA is 72/28. I know age in bonds has fallen out of fashion, but that recommendation is bonds = age -28! Am I depriving myself of higher returns by being too conservative? I realize there is no right answer, just interested in opinions. age 48 goal is $3 million + by retirement at age 65-70, so 20 years retirement assets $550k in the market (I know, it should be more but my income wasn't always this high) income $450k/ year gross, physician, secure job $400k in home equity, home paid off in 5 years risk tolerance is medium to more aggressive (Survived 2008 w...
- Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:36 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The overselling of international diversification
- Replies: 56
- Views: 8409
Re: The overselling of international diversification
Here is another article more or less echoing your point
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/ ... ification/
Quote from the article
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/ ... ification/
Quote from the article
I don't necessarily agree with what the author said, but it's an interesting analysis.It’s less about whether diversification works. It’s more about when diversification works and especially when it doesn’t.
- Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:32 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: seeking advice on asset allocation, or is Vanguard crazy
- Replies: 26
- Views: 3555
Re: seeking advice on asset allocation, or is Vanguard crazy
Vanguard's asset allocation calculator recommends a 80/20 retirement portfolio for me based on their series of questions. Their target fund for my age, target 2035, is 80/20. My current AA is 72/28. I know age in bonds has fallen out of fashion, but that recommendation is bonds = age -28! Am I depriving myself of higher returns by being too conservative? I realize there is no right answer, just interested in opinions. age 48 goal is $3 million + by retirement at age 65-70, so 20 years retirement assets $550k in the market (I know, it should be more but my income wasn't always this high) income $450k/ year gross, physician, secure job $400k in home equity, home paid off in 5 years risk tolerance is medium to more aggressive (Survived 2008 w...
- Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:12 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Millionaire Next Door (Thank you Bogleheads)
- Replies: 81
- Views: 16515
Re: Millionaire Next Door (Thank you Bogleheads)
Thanks for sharing...this made me call my mom
Congratulations!
Congratulations!
- Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:51 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Crisis of Confidence - Choosing Bond allocations in portfolio
- Replies: 24
- Views: 3011
Re: Crisis of Confidence - Choosing Bond allocations in portfolio
Stay the course my friend. Let me expand my point a little bit. If you are close to retirement, then I think it makes sense to think about your AA, but not because the possibility of a bear coming (they always come). You would be transitioning from the accumulation phase to the withdrawal phase. Changes in your personal financial situation warrants a hard look of your AA. Of course ideally you would have already thought about it. Now, since you have 20 years ahead before retirement, if you worry about the next bear, you are speculating, not investing. In fact, I've never understood the reason behind bond-in-age or similar rules. Adding bond of course lowers the volatility of your portfolio, but the risk is mostly determined by your investm...
- Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:17 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Shifting 100% Stock → 35% Stock & 65% Bonds / REITs
- Replies: 53
- Views: 8733
Re: Shifting 100% Stock → 35% Stock & 65% Bonds / REITs
My point exactly.
- Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:14 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Crisis of Confidence - Choosing Bond allocations in portfolio
- Replies: 24
- Views: 3011
Re: Crisis of Confidence - Choosing Bond allocations in portfolio
Stay the course my friend.
- Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:09 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Shifting 100% Stock → 35% Stock & 65% Bonds / REITs
- Replies: 53
- Views: 8733
Re: Shifting 100% Stock → 35% Stock & 65% Bonds / REITs
What if the market keeps going up for another one or two years and the bottom of the next correction is still higher than the current price?
- Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Bond in taxable account?
- Replies: 1
- Views: 550
Bond in taxable account?
Hello, This topic has been discussed in the forum and also on the Bogleheads wiki page, but it's still unclear to me what to do here. I'm 38 and my wife is 37. We have about ~500k in 401k/Rollover IRA/Roth IRA, and are contributing to our 401k about 55k/year combined (they are maxed). In addition, we also have a taxable account with ~100k with an annual contribution about 12k. My desired AA is 70% Stock/10% REIT/20% Bond. (I understand that technically REIT is also stock, but I think it's different enough and have decided to list it as a separate class.) Thankfully, both of our 401k have access to Vanguard funds, and all of our other accounts are with Vanguard too. I have implemented this AA for our tax-deferred and tax-free account. For th...
- Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:22 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Rollover a 403b
- Replies: 4
- Views: 789
Re: Rollover a 403b
Thanks!clydewolf wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:29 pm Your 403b plan has a Summary Plan Descripton (SPD). You were given a copy or had on line access to the SPD when you signed up to contribute to the plan. A section of the SPD identifies the conditions and timing for distributions and transfers. You should ask the plan custodian for a copy or how to access that document.
- Mon Aug 28, 2017 6:32 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Rollover a 403b
- Replies: 4
- Views: 789
Re: Rollover a 403b
Thanks, heerekj1! Look like I need call my plan provider to find out more. One thing I'm concerned is that everywhere I read, annuity seems to be a tricky investment.
- Sat Aug 26, 2017 2:20 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Rollover a 403b
- Replies: 4
- Views: 789
Rollover a 403b
Hi,
I have a 403b pension plan with a previous employer. The funds are in an annuity (There is an item called "ESTIMATED GUARANTEED DEATH BENEFIT")
The fund selection is very bad, so I'm thinking about transfer it to a Vanguard Rollover IRA account. Can I do that? And if I do, does it still have to be an annuity account?
Thank you very much for your help.
I have a 403b pension plan with a previous employer. The funds are in an annuity (There is an item called "ESTIMATED GUARANTEED DEATH BENEFIT")
The fund selection is very bad, so I'm thinking about transfer it to a Vanguard Rollover IRA account. Can I do that? And if I do, does it still have to be an annuity account?
Thank you very much for your help.
- Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: 1099-R [Help with 401(k) to IRA rollover]
- Replies: 3
- Views: 503
Re: 1099-R [Help with 401(k) to IRA rollover]
Thanks for the suggestion!
- Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:14 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: 1099-R [Help with 401(k) to IRA rollover]
- Replies: 3
- Views: 503
1099-R [Help with 401(k) to IRA rollover]
Hi,
I'm in the process of transferring my 401k from my previous employer to a rollover IRA at Vanguard. I just received the check from the firm where my 401k was, along with Form 1099-R. Should I tear the check off and mail it to Vanguard, or do I also need to mail Form 1099-R to Vanguard as well? Thanks,
I'm in the process of transferring my 401k from my previous employer to a rollover IRA at Vanguard. I just received the check from the firm where my 401k was, along with Form 1099-R. Should I tear the check off and mail it to Vanguard, or do I also need to mail Form 1099-R to Vanguard as well? Thanks,