Search found 160 matches

by totality
Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 651
Views: 49342

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

The number of shares of an ETF is not fixed: They are constantly being created/destroyed by some authorized party in order to keep the NAV of the fund and the ETF share price equal, so that the fund doesn't trade at a significant premium or discount. It is definitely that case that if there is a ne...
by totality
Sat Mar 06, 2021 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 651
Views: 49342

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

The way I understand it is the fixed amount of ETF shares that are available are bought and sold and thus there isn't an "increase" because it just trades at market value. If someone wants to pull out a ton out of the ETF, they would sell it at market price, and another buyer would need t...
by totality
Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 651
Views: 49342

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

Interesting. When you have a moment could you please share what active funds have outperformed for decades. Dodge & Cox funds have a decent track record: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=326799 EDIT: I now see you posted in that thread, so you are already aware, sorry. Leaving t...
by totality
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 651
Views: 49342

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

ARKK holds a decent number of companies. Any downturn it sufferers will be within the same realm suffered by TSM. Unless Tesla abruptly goes to zero, THEN you will be correct. And to be honest the huge TSLA holding is what makes me most nervous about continuing to have my ARK chips out on the table...
by totality
Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 651
Views: 49342

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

Absolute timing isn't achievable, and isn't the goal stricto sensu (though you can argue in a roundabout way it is). I don't practice golf to hit like Tiger Woods, I practice golf to be better tomorrow than I was yesterday. In that way one can improve ones ability to analyze companies and industrie...
by totality
Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ESPP, 10% off, no lookback, worth it?
Replies: 26
Views: 1723

Re: ESPP, 10% off, no lookback, worth it?

Just sell it ASAP and pay the tax with minimal risk. It’s free money, who cares if it’s a “hassle”? It’s like getting a 1.0-1.5% raise. +1, I sell immediately in my company's ESPP. In the OP's case, 15% of pay * 10% discount = 1.5% raise in gross pay. Yes, it's a hassle, but probably one of the bes...
by totality
Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

Stock drops suddenly? WSB says it's a "short ladder attack", which as far as I can tell is a made up thing from one post on Seeking Alpha years ago that just keeps being repeated to explain any price drops to the faithful diamond hands. It actually is a very real thing. The SEC specifical...
by totality
Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

Can someone counter the "little to no volume on trades today... short attack" idea with any numbers? "Bloomberg telling us it’s over and short interest for $GME has dropped all the way from 120% to 39% .. that massive amount of short closing would show as a MASSIVE increase in volume...
by totality
Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab target date funds
Replies: 2
Views: 365

Re: Schwab target date funds

They are all good options.

So long as you stick to index-based funds and avoid the high cost, actively managed target date funds that Schwab and Fidelity have, I don't think it matters. Don't sweat a few basis points and use whatever fund is available at your preferred brokerage.
by totality
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

Anyone care to make a prediction for next week? How high does this go? Does a squeeze ever materialize? Will I lose all of my money or just most of it? I don't want to hazard a guess for next week, but long term I am skeptical that a squeeze will materialize. Perhaps I am being naive, but I can't b...
by totality
Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCV vs LCG vs TSM
Replies: 8
Views: 341

Re: LCV vs LCG vs TSM

There are lots of active investors and "advisors" that push value style investing and funds. If you're not seeing 'value' being pushed as a "viable strategy" you're not looking very hard. It's all over the place, including this board. The advice most frequently suggested on this...
by totality
Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

From this point forward anytime anyone asks: What if everyone indexed? The answer will be one word: GameStop. i.e., it will never happen that everyone will index. there will always be people to trade, now and forever. there's no changing human behavior, nor the madness of crowds (can't wait for Ber...
by totality
Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can GME and Reddit stocks get overindexed into VTI?
Replies: 24
Views: 2163

Re: Can GME and Reddit stocks get overindexed into VTI?

Market-cap weight index funds don't trade based on price changes. They trade on fund inflows/outflows or share float changes. (Basically if companies issue new shares or there is a buyback.) So VTI doesn't buy any more shares of GME than it already had: It's just that VTI costs a little more (curren...
by totality
Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

S3 partners just announced GME at 113% of float. is that still too high or not? would the remaining big shorters be able to quietly sell without spiking GME price? In theory, anything over 100% means that every single long can sell to a short. I'm not sure if I really buy those numbers or not. Not ...
by totality
Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

It's just like Jack Bogle always said- The best way to build wealth is to jump from get rich quick scheme to get rich quick scheme until you finally hit it big We can't always take Jack Bogle's word as gospel on everything. He also said it was fine to stick to the US for pump and dump schemes with ...
by totality
Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

I'm also not used to this, but the bar volume graph for GME sure looks like more buys than sells during the crazy swing down and back up halfway. Which I have no idea what that means, but it doesn't seem right. What do you mean "more buys than sells"? Every buy is a sell and vice versa. T...
by totality
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 210
Views: 13581

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Closet Index Capital Management is happy to report that we are now beating our benchmark!

By two basis points. And YTD return is still negative.
by totality
Wed Jan 27, 2021 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

The prevailing theory is that the actual squeeze has not happened, and that the current price is simply a result of very simple supply/demand mechanics (i.e., there's a huge demand for shares to either cover shorts/calls OR take advantage of the squeeze vs. a dwindling supply of shares because of R...
by totality
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

You do realize that GME is going to drop 90% from the current price at some point, right? Buying right now in the hopes that you are not the one who loses 90% is exactly what speculation means. Not my fault hedge funds shorted 140% of available shares (how the hell is >100% even allowed?). Those sh...
by totality
Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:00 pm At what point does this stock become 1% of a total stock index fund?
Total US market cap is about $50T. So it needs to get to $500B market cap to be 1%, roughly 50X today's closing price.
by totality
Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

There are two narratives in competition here. Isn't this what the market is all about? I think this one ends in SEC investigation. The shorts are up to foul play here with short percent in excess of float. There has been some discussion in the other "theory" thread about why short in exce...
by totality
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Bogleheads should be happy too. This should scare short sellers from shorting any position ever in the future. Index funds to the moon... That's only looking at the price appreciation side of things. A market-cap index fund buys shares of all companies. When there are speculative surges in the pric...
by totality
Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

I had always interpreted that quote "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" as a warning against taking the short side, but it's really something to see a bunch of people deliberately trying to stay irrational longer than someone else can stay solvent.
by totality
Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to understand all that's going on with GME [GameStop]
Replies: 156
Views: 17148

Re: How to understand all that's going on with GME [GameStop]

So is it still a *good idea to go long on GME tomorrow morning at market open? Is it too late now? *By good idea I mean going for at least 3X gains using money that one can afford to lose and still be able to sleep well. Generally speaking, once you see something in the news, it's too late to trade...
by totality
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any boring investors left?
Replies: 223
Views: 13459

Re: Any boring investors left?

I score maybe a 9.5?

I am 100% in index-based target date funds. However, those funds tend to tweak the investment mix (eg, in recent years, increase international stocks) every now and then, so that is a bit of active management.
by totality
Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Equity Bubble Investing AKA How/when to get back in?
Replies: 38
Views: 2622

Re: Equity Bubble Investing AKA How/when to get back in?

Do I understand correctly that this is all in an IRA? (ie, tax-deferred account?) If that's the case, you might consider an "all in one fund"...like VSMGX (Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth) which has a fixed 60/40 stock/bond allocation. One thing to be aware with Vanguard's all-in-one...
by totality
Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date Funds Available in your 401k
Replies: 39
Views: 2317

Re: Target Date Funds Available in your 401k

My employer has Vanguard TDFs at 0.08% ER, my SO's employer has Schwab TDFs at 0.35% ER.
by totality
Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Something I hadn't really considered before is that it seems like short selling sort of creates additional "virtual" shares. If roughly 100% of float is sold short, doesn't that mean there are actually 2X as many shares held long as there actual existing float shares? If all the short sell...
by totality
Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4143
Views: 202038

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Anyone joining in this unique opportunity? In the 2021 hedge fund contest, 3 Bogleheads have GME in their portfolio, all short. So I'd say the general sentiment is bearish. :) https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=335126 (I actually think this could still work out well for those...
by totality
Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RSU Vest Date
Replies: 20
Views: 1243

Re: RSU Vest Date

RSUs at my company can disappear if you give notice before the vesting date, even if you are still employed on the vesting date.

Read your RSU plan document carefully, as others have suggested.
by totality
Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target date fund in 401k-what goes in taxable?
Replies: 17
Views: 1384

Re: Target date fund in 401k-what goes in taxable?

Some folks simply use a target date fund in taxable too: viewtopic.php?t=287967
by totality
Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using Lifecycle Investing and investing on margin while knowing a big salary hit is about to come
Replies: 60
Views: 5454

Re: My drawdown from peak to valley during Covid19 was -15%: why buying a bit on margin cannot be considered when DCA-in

Agree with you that the drawdown really was 35%, but this is provided you put all your money in at the peak. If you've been DCA-ing for few years prior to that, your overall portfolio drawdown would be much less, as it was for me: 15%. That is what raised my curiosity as in, since I know even a mar...
by totality
Wed Jan 20, 2021 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using Lifecycle Investing and investing on margin while knowing a big salary hit is about to come
Replies: 60
Views: 5454

Re: My drawdown from peak to valley during Covid19 was -15%: why buying a bit on margin cannot be considered when DCA-in

While the S&P 500 or VT (Vanguard total world) were down 35% during Covid, my drawdown from peak to valley was only -15%, This is due to the fact that I have been DCA-ing for the past 3 years. I really don't understand what you mean. The drawdown is the same regardless of how you bought in. You...
by totality
Wed Jan 20, 2021 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Signs of Bubble logic - greed overcoming fear
Replies: 212
Views: 19036

Re: Signs of Bubble logic - greed overcoming fear

Valuethinker wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:25 am Are there any signs that I have missed?
The biggest shock to me on returning to Bogleheads after a few years away is the discussion here of 2X and 3X leveraged strategies, with some posters apparently having 100% of their portfolio leveraged.
by totality
Wed Jan 20, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I paydown 1% interest family loan?
Replies: 39
Views: 2064

Re: Should I paydown 1% interest family loan?

Your family member did you a huge favor with this loan. I would pay it back as soon as you can, but without sacrificing liquidity and still maxing tax-advantaged accounts. However, I wouldn't do any taxable investments until this loan is paid off. Sure, you could get better than 1% in the markets, b...
by totality
Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
Replies: 118
Views: 5839

Re: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

I'm guessing that most Bogleheads agree with EMH. The consensus here is that S&P 500 index funds are best, it's not worth paying a slightly higher expense ratio for a different strategy (such as equal weighting, dividend growth, or moat investing), and one's asset allocation should NOT be affec...
by totality
Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks: If not now, then when?
Replies: 172
Views: 17557

Re: International stocks: If not now, then when?

It isn't market timing to assess the value of an investment. Market timing is buying today with the expectation that the price will rise in short order (due to charting, or a hunch, or other voodoo), without regard to value. Assessing value is what Buffett has been doing for the last 70 years, and ...
by totality
Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8020
Views: 783974

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Yes, I am holding cash and upro simultaneously. I hold it for days where UPRO and TMF simultaneously go down and I apply cash. Hmm, even so, I find this strategy confusing...you are still, at times, borrowing cash while holding cash. My intuition is that paying the cost of borrowing while doing not...
by totality
Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks: If not now, then when?
Replies: 172
Views: 17557

Re: International stocks: If not now, then when?

Look, I'm internationally diversified, and I think other US investors should be too. I cringe when I see people on here recommending 100% VSTAX. However, that said... 1. International stocks sell for MUCH lower price/book ratios, price/cash flow ratios, and other valuation yardsticks. Japan is parti...
by totality
Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent vs buy decision
Replies: 8
Views: 619

Re: Rent vs buy decision

There are various calculators online to help people run the numbers. Here is one: https://michaelbluejay.com/house/rentvsbuy.html With $3K rent compared to a $1.3M home, you will likely not come out ahead financially by buying. However, money is for spending and you can't take it with you. It's a pe...
by totality
Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Account Mutual Funds: Schwab or Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 1646

Re: Taxable Account Mutual Funds: Schwab or Vanguard

I went for Schwab because of better fraud / security policy, supposedly better customer service, and website. However, two major drawbacks of Schwab (compared to Vanguard) are: Converting from Mutual Fund to ETF within Schwab is taxable event. This is the answer I received from "excellent"...
by totality
Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young investors: don’t take unnecessary risk with aggressive and concentrated allocations
Replies: 205
Views: 13683

Re: Young investors: don’t damage long term returns with aggressive and concentrated allocations

Broad index funds have worked in the past. Now it just might be "chasing returns". Passive investing advocates often point to past performance to try to win people over, because it's a simple, easily understandable argument to make. But there are actually more fundamental reasons why we s...
by totality
Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expense ratio for mutual fund - is the concern exaggerated?
Replies: 26
Views: 1482

Re: Expense ration for mutual fund - is the concern exaggerated?

Came on here expecting to say that in the current low-ER climate, the need to get the absolute lowest ER is over-rated (e.g., 0.01 vs 0.02%). But you are comparing 0.8% to 0.08%. It's not that most BH don't think that active management will make up for the delta; it's that most BH don't expect the ...
by totality
Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Front Row
Replies: 4
Views: 527

Re: Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Front Row

Factor investing guy. Recent thread on Bogleheads about an article he wrote: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=333590
by totality
Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying active managed ETFs in a taxable account
Replies: 4
Views: 521

Re: Buying active managed ETFs in a taxable account

My wife interested to add two active managed ETFs in her taxable account. The ETFs are: ARKK & ARKG. It's just a small percentage with no more than 6% of her total portfolio. Any thoughts on holding active managed ETFs in taxable account? Thanks. Better to put them in a Roth IRA if possible. If...
by totality
Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I walk away from nice pension? Is it worth it?
Replies: 48
Views: 6525

Re: Should I walk away from nice pension? Is it worth it?

Other Benefits: PTOs are very low (80h/yr), compared to what I have now (300h/yr). Oh geez OP, think very hard about this. You have an exceptionally good PTO setup now, and you'd be going to 2 weeks/year. Is $15k enough for you to work an extra 5.5 weeks a year? Put another way, if you went into wo...
by totality
Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTI vs. FSKAX for Taxable Account
Replies: 41
Views: 7005

Re: VTI vs. FSKAX for Taxable Account

Why ITOT over VTI? Are there fees associated with buying or selling VTI at Fidelity? I believe that prior to Fidelity adopting totally comission-free trading in late 2019, ITOT was comission-free at Fidelity but VTI was not. So that's why people were giving that advice back then. (Note when the thr...
by totality
Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Adding Innovation (ARKK) To Globally Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 2481

Re: Adding Innovation (ARKK) To Globally Diversified Portfolio

In summary, I am fascinated by the innovative companies and industries found in ARKK and I do believe their thesis that these sectors are fundamentally underappreciated in the markets. I could be wrong, and so could they. I will not jump into this decision, as I've already been talked out of it onc...
by totality
Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ARK investment
Replies: 267
Views: 23986

Re: ARK investment

huge BH believer but at the same time you have to a be a little flexible in this day and age and not just follow the status quo year in and year out. A very large part of the Boglehead philosophy is to "Stay the course!" ie, literally just follow the "status quo" (a workable pla...
by totality
Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Thinking on Equal Weighted Indexes?
Replies: 45
Views: 2678

Re: Current Thinking on Equal Weighted Indexes?

In response to @totality Market cap investing gives us an equal share of all businesses, for which we must pay the going rate. So-called "equal weight" investing says we ought to buy an outsized share of smaller businesses. This incurs trading costs and is unlikely to yield a higher long ...