Search found 1310 matches

by WanderingDoc
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 52
Views: 6248

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

nura wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:24 am
WanderingDoc wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:49 pm The Vanguard U.S. REIT (VGSIX) returned -6.11% in 2018. My personal real estate portfolio had a 18% IRR with six figure profits in 2018. So, where did diversification get you? :sharebeer
Have you calculated the IIR if you had deadbeat tenant(s) requiring 1000s of dollars in legal fees and several months to evict? This happened to my colleague during the last recession who had 2 million real estate portfolio. Worse, one of his properties were trashed requiring several months worth of rent to refurbish :oops:
My buddy has been a landlord in Hawaii for 40+ years. He had one eviction and I think it cost him $25 and an extra week of vacancy 8-)
by WanderingDoc
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 52
Views: 6248

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

The Vanguard U.S. REIT (VGSIX) returned -6.11% in 2018. My personal real estate portfolio had a 18% IRR with six figure profits in 2018. So, where did diversification get you? :sharebeer Have you calculated the IIR if you had deadbeat tenant(s) requiring 1000s of dollars in legal fees and several months to evict? This happened to my colleague during the last recession who had 2 million real estate portfolio. Worse, one of his properties were trashed requiring several months worth of rent to refurbish :oops: You are arguing with the resident RE .... zealot I should have to say. It's worked for him. He likes talking about it. There is no possibility of an external audit of his returns - we have to take them on trust. I He likes talking about...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gillette Mach 3 alternatives
Replies: 81
Views: 13861

Re: Gillette Mach 3 alternatives

Hi, I have used Gillette Mach 3 (disposable) and Sensor Excel for many years, but now want to transition off of them. Is there any other good quality alternative in the US market with a pivoting Head that adjusts to the contours of the face. 2 to 3 blades are enough for me. I’ve been using Schick Hydro 5 for years. Tried Dorco and wasn’t satisfied. I’ve found the Schick to give excellent shaves and price is reasonable. They last a very long time as well- I dry the cartridge with hair dryer after each shave about 15-20 seconds. I shave 3x per week and have been getting about 10 weks out of a cartidge and could probably go longer. I tried the Hydro 3 blade but didn’t like them because it didn’t flip up to get close under the nose. Not sure t...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 52
Views: 6248

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

Real estate still can bring rents, can be leveraged, has good tax treatment, etc. But it’s not something to just buy and hold. Rental income, tenant paydown of said leverage, and the good tax treatment are exactly why real estate most certainly is something to just buy and hold. So let's think this through. Real estate pays you in about 5 ways. It generates rental income, principal paydown, tax incentives, appreciation, and inflation hedging. Stocks pay you in approximately 1 way, or 1.5 if you count a 2% dividend. I wonder if a real estate investment would be good to buy and hold? :confused This is such BS that is funny :) Rental income, principal pay-down and inflation hedging is the same money. You cannot have it at the same time unless...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 52
Views: 6248

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

AerialWombat wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:01 pm
Ragnoth wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:40 am Real estate still can bring rents, can be leveraged, has good tax treatment, etc. But it’s not something to just buy and hold.
Rental income, tenant paydown of said leverage, and the good tax treatment are exactly why real estate most certainly is something to just buy and hold.
So let's think this through. Real estate pays you in about 5 ways. It generates rental income, principal paydown, tax incentives, appreciation, and inflation hedging. Stocks pay you in approximately 1 way, or 1.5 if you count a 2% dividend. I wonder if a real estate investment would be good to buy and hold? :confused
by WanderingDoc
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Municipal Money Market VMSXX [0.03%]
Replies: 651
Views: 123278

Re: Vanguard Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%

I received a PM saying that the Google spreadsheet I shared that uses ImportHTML to get the SEC yields was crashing. I checked, and it was working fine for me. A subsequent PM indicated that it was crashing Chrome, but not FireFox (I have been using mostly Firefox lately). I verified that it is crashing the Chrome browser for me too. I figured out that it is the chart that is causing Chrome to crash. After deleting the chart, it doesn't crash. Of course the chart is the primary output, so that's a problem. I'll continue to investigate (e.g., reinstall Chrome, delete extensions) as I have time, but if anyone else figures out how to fix the problem in Chrome, please let us know. I've made a few changes to the sheet, and added some notes. Her...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Traditional 401K vs Roth 401k
Replies: 60
Views: 6312

Re: Traditional 401K vs Roth 401k

teen persuasion wrote: Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:18 am
WanderingDoc wrote: Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:27 pm Roth is best for those who plan on being wealthy when we are older. I define wealthy as having a LOT more wealth in our 50s and 60s, than we had in our 20s and 30s. If you've decided on traditional 401k now, you've psyched yourself into planning to be poorer in retirement. I think psychology plays a very important role in achieving our goals. Very few people woke up wealthy. Those people had a burning desire, motivation, plan, and backup plan to do so. This is why I include at least half my retirement in a Roth. I am planning to be prosperous in my old age. I hope to do a lot of giving as well.
Wouldn't traditional contributions be better for giving to charity?
Being very wealthy is the best way :wink:
by WanderingDoc
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Traditional 401K vs Roth 401k
Replies: 60
Views: 6312

Re: Traditional 401K vs Roth 401k

02nz wrote: Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:36 pm
WanderingDoc wrote: Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:27 pm If you've decided on traditional 401k now, you've psyched yourself into planning to be poorer in retirement.
No, I haven't psyched myself into anything. I don't plan on being poorer in retirement than I am now (quite the opposite), I'm just planning on paying less in taxes.
Those are one and the same.

If I make $200K now, I want to make $400K in 20 years. If my net worth is $1M now, I want it to be $5M in 20 years.

Paying more in taxes is a sign that you've really made it. A billionaire (that realizes income) pays more in taxes than a millionaire, all else equal.
by WanderingDoc
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Traditional 401K vs Roth 401k
Replies: 60
Views: 6312

Re: Traditional 401K vs Roth 401k

Roth is best for those who plan on being wealthy when we are older. I define wealthy as having a LOT more wealth in our 50s and 60s, than we had in our 20s and 30s. If you've decided on traditional 401k now, you've psyched yourself into planning to be poorer in retirement. I think psychology plays a very important role in achieving our goals. Very few people woke up wealthy. Those people had a burning desire, motivation, plan, and backup plan to do so. This is why I include at least half my retirement in a Roth. I am planning to be prosperous in my old age. I hope to do a lot of giving as well.
by WanderingDoc
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

To each their own. It's the only asset that I found which produces monthly income in my bank account that I legally don't have to pay tax on. To get the same effect from paper investing, I would have to work for 20 to 30 years more. I just met for several video chat sessions with a financial advisor, and he told me I was set to retire anytime I wanted based on my real estate income, and he was very conservative. I only started investing in real estate in 2013 and the results speak for themselves. I have nothing against the stock market but I don't want to limit my options in life for decades. I want an asset which I can control and produces actual income, not 1.8% dividend. By the way, if you have a property manager or invest passively in ...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we in trouble?
Replies: 123
Views: 21876

Re: Are we in trouble?

Dave Ramsey is insanely conservative and he still says house price 4-5X annual income is fine. That said, I would never tell anyone that a house is a good investment, unless others live in it and pay your mortgage and expenses for you. A rule that I personally adhere to.. car (1 or 2) value or price has to be one months salary or less at any time during your employment. You can buy a $30K car but that better be what you earn in one month gross ;) Nope. Dave Ramsey's Rule of thumb is 25% of TAKE HOME pay on a 15 year mortgage. That is MUCH less than 4X annual income, and in my case ends up being around 1.8X annual income. Even less once you take into account Taxes and Insurance. https://www.daveramsey.com/blog/how-much-house-can-i-afford De...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

To each their own. It's the only asset that I found which produces monthly income in my bank account that I legally don't have to pay tax on. When did SPAM become acceptable? New members should be warned about your kind. Do you also hustle life insurance for infants? Others should be warned about anyone that says such disrespectful things like "your kind". Just because someone is sharing their experience, and its not something you want to talk about, doesn't make it spam. Someone saying "My index fund return was 2% YTD, and I payed long term capital gains tax" is no different than what I said. Relating your own story is fine. Stating over and over that real estate cannot lose is another thing. I'm amazed that you can st...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Correct. While the the stock market is doing what it's doing (near bear market), I just released 2 rentals with a 4% bump in rents, in less than 10 days of vacancy. I am still paying the lender the same principal and interest payment. How sweet it is :) More power to you. As for me, I hate real estate. I mean I really detest it. I hate searching for real estate to buy. I hate putting together and presenting contracts. I hate the closings. I hate the inevitable maintenance, repair, and other ongoing costs. And I hate rental agreements. Oh, and I especially hate real estate market crashes — and they do happen. I think I would buy almost any other asset before I would buy real estate. To each their own. It's the only asset that I found which ...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

To each their own. It's the only asset that I found which produces monthly income in my bank account that I legally don't have to pay tax on. To get the same effect from paper investing, I would have to work for 20 to 30 years more. I just met for several video chat sessions with a financial advisor, and he told me I was set to retire anytime I wanted based on my real estate income, and he was very conservative. I only started investing in real estate in 2013 and the results speak for themselves. I have nothing against the stock market but I don't want to limit my options in life for decades. I want an asset which I can control and produces actual income, not 1.8% dividend. By the way, if you have a property manager or invest passively in ...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank offered free interest rate reduction
Replies: 24
Views: 2326

Re: Bank offered free interest rate reduction

Please stop spreading this misinformation. Your home itself may go up or down in price. You may have debts in the form of a mortgage that cost interest. Home equity does not have a rate of return. You are correct. Equity trapped in your home has no rate of return. It does not have a rate of return, as in the concept does not apply to it. Otherwise, explain how rate of return on your home equity could possibly differ from rate of return on your home itself. Of course that concept applies to it. You can choose the amount of equity you have in your home strategically. Any cash that is not stuck in your home is available to invest and earn a rate of return. You can calculate return ON equity with any asset, be it a property or any other busine...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank offered free interest rate reduction
Replies: 24
Views: 2326

Re: Bank offered free interest rate reduction

From a financial/mathematical/rate of return perspective, adding principal payments to a mortgage is the worst possible thing you could do. Even worse in this low-interest-rate environment. The rate of return on home equity is always zero. It doesn't get any worse than that. Don't listen to what Dave Ramsey says, every single person that I know that follows Dave Ramsey religiously is still struggling. I wonder why? Instead, I live like Dave Ramsey does, not do what he says. Once you're already very wealthy, then making a few bad decisions from a financial perspective won't matter. Pay your mortgage off completely in one shot, knowing that from a financial perspective this is still suboptimal since the rate of return on home equity is alway...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Correct. While the the stock market is doing what it's doing (near bear market), I just released 2 rentals with a 4% bump in rents, in less than 10 days of vacancy. I am still paying the lender the same principal and interest payment. How sweet it is :) More power to you. As for me, I hate real estate. I mean I really detest it. I hate searching for real estate to buy. I hate putting together and presenting contracts. I hate the closings. I hate the inevitable maintenance, repair, and other ongoing costs. And I hate rental agreements. Oh, and I especially hate real estate market crashes — and they do happen. I think I would buy almost any other asset before I would buy real estate. To each their own. It's the only asset that I found which ...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank offered free interest rate reduction
Replies: 24
Views: 2326

Re: Bank offered free interest rate reduction

And by the way, the only person you are hurting by making principal payments on a low interest loan is yourself. The rate of return from home equity is always ZERO. Having $100 dollar bills behind your drywall that are yielding you $0, is never a smart move. The bank makes money either way. That money you are using to make principal payments could be used to instead growth your wealth. This is fundamentally wrong. Taken to its logical conclusion, your statement would support having either the largest mortgage possible (minimize home equity yielding you $0) or no mortgage at all (the bank makes money either way). I can't tell which. In reality, principal payments are very similar to buying a bond with the same interest rate as the loan and ...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 900070

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

jainn wrote: Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:52 pm
jainn wrote: Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:53 pm minus 2% YTD

Mostly 70/30, (50US/20INTL/30BONDS)

A few tactical changes this year, temporarily selling bond allocation for stocks, but always going back to 70/30.
Just recently went from 75/25 to 100/0, Thursday 12/6...
Plan is to go back to 70/30 when sp500 is 2900 again...

I prefer a balanced allocation but felt buying this week at December 2017 prices was acceptable and can wait for sp@2900 again to go back to balanced position...
My timing, lol! Down 9% YTD as of today.
100pct stocks, 69% US, 31% INTL
Plan to still go back to 70/30 stock/bond in the future..just waiting patiently.. :happy
What is your criterion for switching to 70/30?
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 103
Views: 19771

Re: Worst investing year ever....

clown wrote: Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:59 pm Worst investing year EVER?

I would respectfully suggest that OP doesn't know much history, or has a very short investing career, or both. While history may be boring and not sexy, it is instructive and thus worthwhile.

Neglecting the notion of 70 asset classes, history tells us that correlations become less in bear markets and that correlations vary significantly over a period of time.

Lots of overthinking here. Making things more complicaated than necessary.
Please elaborate what you mean by this. What was the point of this statement?
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank offered free interest rate reduction
Replies: 24
Views: 2326

Re: Bank offered free interest rate reduction

So I have a few mortgages, for rental property and my personal home. A few days ago I decided to start making some principal payments on my home. Since this must be done through the banks website (I normally just send a check), I decided to do a "test" principal only payment of $100, just to see how it works. The very next day, I received a phone call from some mortgage advisor at the bank, and she left me a long voice message about lowering my interest rate. Of course I thought this was just some refinance offer, although I thought the timing was weird. The day after that, I get an overnight fedex letter, saying that the bank is offering to reduce my mortgage rate by 0.25%. No Fees, No other changes in the terms of my loan. Simp...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 51045

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

If you don't like your life, you should change it. MMM hated being a computer programmer and wanted to be a contractor. He made the right choice for him. Personally I would much rather be a computer programmer:) I know, right? I LOVE writing scripts... Crawling around under a house installing radiant floor heating sounds like torture. Even MMM calls it torture. I found that each 250 square foot zone took about eight hours of work. But not just a casual eight hours that flies by like it does when installing kitchen cabinets while your radio plays happy bluegrass music in the background. This is eight hours of proper torture , crawling in a 40-inch-high space with sharp rocky dirt beneath and obstacle-laden floor joists above. Even the sligh...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 58354

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

I don't agree. Both have a balance sheet. Both have assets and liabilities. Both have positive/negative cash flows. Countries can just raise taxes. No US citizen actually owns anything, bc if we fail to pay taxes we will be imprisoned. Only by paying taxes are we granted access to the things we "own"... So I'd argue everything and every person is an asset of the US. It's clear when looking at states with troubled books, like illinois (highest effective state/local tax rate), they just raise taxes to get them through it. On topic, I buy every week. I paid off a mortgage recently so now pretty much all money coming in goes directly into market investments. It was a bit of market timing. And how's that working out so far? 8-)
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

You are also assuming a lot with an 18 month recovery time (if a recovery actually occurs). If a recovery doesn't occur eventually, then we're all hosed. :D Historically, most market recoveries have taken fewer than 18 months. But I don't really care. No, not all of us are hosed. If we are diversified into real assets and internationally into multiple investments than we are not hosed at all. The "all of us are hosed" is a common rationalization that I read on this board, touted by investors heavily into US paper, telling themselves this so they could sleep better at night. The fact of the matter is, there are other ivestments and diversification strategies which protect against "being hosed" in the precise situation th...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

You are also assuming a lot with an 18 month recovery time (if a recovery actually occurs). If a recovery doesn't occur eventually, then we're all hosed. :D Historically, most market recoveries have taken fewer than 18 months. But I don't really care. No, not all of us are hosed. If we are diversified into real assets and internationally into multiple investments than we are not hosed at all. The "all of us are hosed" is a common rationalization that I read on this board, touted by investors heavily into US paper, telling themselves this so they could sleep better at night. The fact of the matter is, there are other ivestments and diversification strategies which protect against "being hosed" in the precise situation th...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

You are also assuming a lot with an 18 month recovery time (if a recovery actually occurs). If a recovery doesn't occur eventually, then we're all hosed. :D Historically, most market recoveries have taken fewer than 18 months. But I don't really care. No, not all of us are hosed. If we are diversified into real assets and internationally into multiple investments than we are not hosed at all. The "all of us are hosed" is a common rationalization that I read on this board, touted by investors heavily into US paper, telling themselves this so they could sleep better at night. The fact of the matter is, there are other ivestments and diversification strategies which protect against "being hosed" in the precise situation th...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 58354

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

...The U.S. is insolvent (by their own reported accounting) and cannot pay back it's debts. Not now, not ever. Does that sound prosperous to you? The US can never default by definition because the US government owns a printing press. Whether your statement is correct or not is actually irrelevant. Printing press or not, the U.S. is not prosperous by any definition because there is a net negative cash flow, and net worth is more and more negative by the year. Debts not paid are increasing. Whether you have a printing press or not, this is still the definition of broke and not prosperous. Wealth and prosperity is measured by your balance sheet. Prosperity = A positive cash flow, low levels of debt that is serviceable, a positive net worth, a...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 58354

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Bought yesterday. Large move to Equities based on re-balance but also upped my Equity allocation in my AA another 10% because value. This is panic without fundamentals. U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment. Have you ever considered WHAT is actually powering this so called growth? Debt? Inflation (increase in money supply/printing)? Or is it better to just keep head in sand? Growth is defined by a positive balance sheet, not the opposite. This goes for individuals and countries alike. What do you think is powering real estate? Debt - most folks can purchase anything that requires more than a 3% downpayment. Full employment - ha! Don't believe everything you read - plenty of job listings, why can't they fill them? Beca...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

You are also assuming a lot with an 18 month recovery time (if a recovery actually occurs). If a recovery doesn't occur eventually, then we're all hosed. :D Historically, most market recoveries have taken fewer than 18 months. But I don't really care. No, not all of us are hosed. If we are diversified into real assets and internationally into multiple investments than we are not hosed at all. The "all of us are hosed" is a common rationalization that I read on this board, touted by investors heavily into US paper, telling themselves this so they could sleep better at night. The fact of the matter is, there are other ivestments and diversification strategies which protect against "being hosed" in the precise situation th...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 58354

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

bgyt wrote: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:20 pm Bought yesterday. Large move to Equities based on re-balance but also upped my Equity allocation in my AA another 10% because value.

This is panic without fundamentals.

U.S. Economy is growing at 3% and we are at full employment.
Have you ever considered WHAT is actually powering this so called growth? Debt? Inflation (increase in money supply/printing)? Or is it better to just keep head in sand? Growth is defined by a positive balance sheet, not the opposite. This goes for individuals and countries alike.
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we in trouble?
Replies: 123
Views: 21876

Re: Are we in trouble?

This post is a great example of why the 2X mortgage size rule exists. At 370k/year you really shouldn't have more than a 700-800k mortgage. That would require a 400k downpayment on a house that expensive. Also, never buy a home in a new location without first renting for a year and making sure your job is stable. I totally understand why you're stressed. With that being said, things will probably work out fine and you need to just relax and be patient. Lesson learned. Aren't down payments 20% standard? I don't understand the 2X rule. I have seen 2.7X, 3.0X around... Doesn't everything depend on the interest rates? 30% of your gross income on mortgage seems a better rule, what OP is doing The 2X rule is the size of your mortgage should be i...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case against buy and hold index investing
Replies: 39
Views: 5801

Re: A case against buy and hold index investing

Dear Bogleheads, As I was browsing through youtube I found this video of a guy named Sven Carlin. In it he makes a case against the 'buy and hold' strategy of investing that some of us advocate. His main point is that he disagrees with the idea that stocks generally go up in the long term. Link to video: https://youtu.be/_xsfXJbKF1c I was curious as to your opinions about his arguments and would love to pick your brain! Cheers If his main point is that he disagrees with the idea that stocks generally go up in the long term, then he is fighting all available evidence that they do -not just in the U.S. and not just in recent history. As long as their have been equity markets, they have in the aggregate increased in value over time. The only ...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Highly compensated employee & military TSP
Replies: 10
Views: 1407

Re: Highly compensated employee & military TSP

Spirit Rider wrote: Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:27 am The HCE dollar limit just determines whether you are an HCE or not. ADP testing determines if there is a test failure or not. Only if there is a test failure or a self-imposed limit will HCE contributions be limited.

I have no idea if the TSP is subject to testing or not.
Okay, so what is this dollar limit? I am even more confused now than when we started.
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652291

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Its weird that this reaction seems to be in response to Powell doing literally exactly what he said he would do in November. Maybe people thought he would succumb to pressure from Trump and the stock market. It does seem like Unicorns and Fairy Dust doesn't it? I certainly have trouble/can't really accept that the market is actually worth 2% less than yesterday. To me it seems like I get to buy more of the same thing for less money. Could it be overvalued yesterday? This goes back to a question I posed on another thread - how do we know what the actual value of all these assets is supposed to be? Be it equities or real estate, if there is a 20% drop going forward, you may say - "Wow, it's 20% cheaper!" but what if it is still ove...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Highly compensated employee & military TSP
Replies: 10
Views: 1407

Re: Highly compensated employee & military TSP

I am just curious how this is determined. I earn a very reasonable salary and I've never even heard that your TSP contribution could be limited.
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FAANG
Replies: 48
Views: 4577

Re: FAANG

KyleAAA wrote: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:17 pm
KlangFool wrote: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:14 pm Folks,

Why would you put any money into those individual stocks when you know that they have no possibility of going up 10X to 30X over the next few years?

A) I only put my "play money" into individual stocks.

B) I only gamble on individual stocks that have the possibility of going up 10X to 30X.

KlangFool
Because they are dominant in their industries and tend to have amazing profitability minus Amazon and Netflix. There are risks, but 20-30% returns going forward are also realistic. I also wouldn’t count Amazon our specifically in terms of 10x potential.
20-30% returns.. over what time period?
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FAANG
Replies: 48
Views: 4577

Re: FAANG

I haven't held an individual stock since I sold apply at $125 4 years (bought it at $89) ago to pay for my last semester of my MBA, instead of taking out loans. I am however very tempted to buy shares of Apple if they dip under $160, I don't see it going any lower than $150 if we have another big down day for the overall market. Their main issues is slow sales on new iphones, but that is because the Xs is over $1,000 and they have crappy trade in promotions. All they would have to do is announce a price drop or better trade in promotion and people would trade up and their sales would go up. I think they finally realized that iphones due have some price elasticity. Big down day? It's time to get ready to think of the S&P500 in terms of ...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Highly compensated employee & military TSP
Replies: 10
Views: 1407

Re: Highly compensated employee & military TSP

For 401k purposes my son is a "highly compensated employee" and is only allowed to contribute $8000 to his 401k. He also has a second job in the airforce reserves where he is eligible to contribute to the Thrift savings plan (TSP) . Can he contribute $10,500 to his TSP and therefore max out the $18,500 limit to 401ks/403bw/TSPs etc.? Or since he is a "highly compensated employee" with one employer limit his overall 401k type contributions. He knows he has other options like Roth IRA, taxable brokerage ( and maybe even a backdoor ROTH) however he would prefer to do tax deferred contributions if the tax code allowed it. I am curious.. what is the cutoff/annual salary minimum to be considered a "highly compensated emp...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...do I keep buying more equities?
Replies: 49
Views: 6613

Re: So...do I keep buying more equities?

Rents drop 20%? Please don't quote random numbers if you don't know exacts. Class B and C market rents in apartments stayed the same or went UP during the Great recession in many markets. The mortgage default rate on residential multifamily was less than 1.5% during the worst real estate housing crash in the last 100 years. Rents move very slowly and in the markets I invest, they plateaued, went up, or dropped 1-2%. Vacancies went down. That 20% figure perhaps happened only in Detroit but its an off-the-cuff made up random number. There are thousands of submarkets in the US that aren't Detroit. that is why you need to diverse geographically, size, number of units, and investing strategy. As mortgage rates lately have been going up, and les...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...do I keep buying more equities?
Replies: 49
Views: 6613

Re: So...do I keep buying more equities?

I've experienced and seen some serious evidence in my own life. Investing in real assets that produce income, for starters. I have just renewed 3 leases, bumped rents 3-4% in each, tenants payed down ~$18K of my principal on several mortgages (directly adding to my net worth), and I legally won't pay any taxes on my rental income in 2018. I will claim a paper loss despite a five figure net profit on cash flow alone. There are assets allow you to modify and control them (even in bad times). I don't want to be at the whim of "Mr. Market". I am currently ~83% in passive and active real estate equity, and frankly I wish it was higher :P And the person who bought real estate in 2006 that was cash flow positive and then saw rents drop ...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...do I keep buying more equities?
Replies: 49
Views: 6613

Re: So...do I keep buying more equities?

So is the stock recent stock drop a sale (good is still valuable and you are getting it cheaply) or a broken item (the price is correct for the current estimates of future return)? Nobody really knows. When Japanese stocks dropped from 40k to 20k it wasn't a sale. It was distressed merchandise. When the s&p 500 dropped from 1500 to 700 it was a sale. How good do you think you are at picking sales from distressed merchandise? I keep buying equities cause I have no clue. Maybe I am overpaying. Maybe I am not. I stay the course and hope that in 20 years everything works out. Some strategy you got there, friend. "Hope" 8-) Unfortunately I have seen little evidence of a better strategy:) I do like to think the deck is really stack...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...do I keep buying more equities?
Replies: 49
Views: 6613

Re: So...do I keep buying more equities?

What do you do when some crashes their car and is willkng to sell it to you for 10% less than an uncrashed model? Obviously if the item at the grocery store is broken you don't buy it. So is the stock recent stock drop a sale (good is still valuable and you are getting it cheaply) or a broken item (the price is correct for the current estimates of future return)? Nobody really knows. When Japanese stocks dropped from 40k to 20k it wasn't a sale. It was distressed merchandise. When the s&p 500 dropped from 1500 to 700 it was a sale. How good do you think you are at picking sales from distressed merchandise? I keep buying equities cause I have no clue. Maybe I am overpaying. Maybe I am not. I stay the course and hope that in 20 years eve...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan
Replies: 41
Views: 7156

Re: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan

frugalecon wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:19 pm Alan Greenspan is 92. I recently saw him going into Neiman Marcus with his wife (Andrea Mitchell). He looked quite frail. He had a great run of being famous, but I don’t know why his views about financial markets are newsworthy now. Or at least actionable.
Must be doing well! :moneybag
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...do I keep buying more equities?
Replies: 49
Views: 6613

Re: So...do I keep buying more equities?

Should I keep buying into the market as its dropping? Feel like at this point that any day it drops 1% to 2% or more, I should just keep buying a small portion of it and reduce my overall cost basis. If something drops in price at the grocery store what do you do? What do you do when some crashes their car and is willkng to sell it to you for 10% less than an uncrashed model? Obviously if the item at the grocery store is broken you don't buy it. So is the stock recent stock drop a sale (good is still valuable and you are getting it cheaply) or a broken item (the price is correct for the current estimates of future return)? Nobody really knows. When Japanese stocks dropped from 40k to 20k it wasn't a sale. It was distressed merchandise. Whe...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...do I keep buying more equities?
Replies: 49
Views: 6613

Re: So...do I keep buying more equities?

If you DCA and not 100 into the equity, you will win. Now it's not the time to be all in. institute and folks with 100% equity during last couple of years bull want to out to harvest the gain. You should wait at least until the market back to norm. What if you're 100% equities and have no gains to TLH? I'm currently down 5% or 10k from the total amount I've contributed since April 2017.Nothing's really changed in my investment strategy... just buying more equities every week regardless of price. Should I stop contributing new money and save up cash until I'm at a 90-10 equities to cash ratio? Isn't that market timing? What's to say stocks wont begin to go up after christmas or new years? I would direct 100% into stable values. the market a...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok to invest in an LLC?
Replies: 33
Views: 2479

Re: Ok to invest in an LLC?

boglerocks wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:36 pm A friend of mine is starting a new company which I'd like to make a small investment in. I have lots of experience investing in private companies but this one is different since the founder is particularly inexperienced and he isn't thinking about VCs. He would like to structure it as an LLC with an S-corp election for tax purposes. Should that be ok for me to buy into once it's been set up? I don't want to be exposed to any liability or have any responsibilities to the company at all.
I do it all the time. Usually backed by real estate equity (collateral). My best investments ROI-wise by far.
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 51045

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

davidsorensen32 wrote: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:49 am Ignore what he says. Instead follow what he does. He earns $400,000+ from his blog. Do you ?
Exactly! Same can be said about Dave Ramsey. Ignore what he says (saving will make you rich), and follow what he does (buys $10M+ real estate, apartment buildings, fly first class, be a cutthroat capitalist) :beer
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...do I keep buying more equities?
Replies: 49
Views: 6613

Re: So...do I keep buying more equities?

So...do I keep buying more equities? Yes, if you're a long term investor and plan to buy on a regular basis for a long period of time, which is IMO the way you should be. It is not a mistake to buy things when they go on sale. Stocks are the only thing I am aware of that buyers are afraid to buy when they go on sale but are enthusiastic to buy when they're expensive and getting more so. Emotions are the main enemy of investing success. Garland Whizzer So are you loading up on Japanese stocks because they are on a megasale given how far they are below their historical highs set almost 30 years ago? The problem with value investing is always figuring out if the product is on sale or if they are distressed merchandise. Buying now before the 2...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversify Globally
Replies: 47
Views: 5951

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversify Globally

I think Larry makes a very good case for global diversification and I believe it. I am US 50/DM 25/EM 25 , so I even overweight EM relative to global market weight because I believe that over the long term that increased EM risk will be rewarded with increased return. The increased volatility of EM makes it difficult for many investors to stay the EM course sometimes, one reason not the only one, why EM valuations are so compelling. Interestingly, Vanguard has a different opinion. In their recently published market forecast for 2019 < https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGVEMO_2019.pdf >,Vanguard research judged both US and EM equity to be overvalued and DM to be more attractively valued. I guess value is in the eye of the beholder, but I s...