Search found 1243 matches

by WanderingDoc
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18937

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Depending on the age of the person and career prospect and so on , it may not be possible for someone to recover financially. And that is what we are discussing. A 30 year-old absolutely could be wiped out, bankrupt, even in debt, and still recover financially. HomerJ, How would you know? <<Before,...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18937

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

The question is, do you want to be heavily in an investment where 10 years is just "noise"? That you have to accept significant losses for that long because you have no control. Those 10 years could be the most important or significant of your life. For ex. the last 10 years of your life when you a...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18937

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-be-prepared-losses?nopaging=1 Larry reviews a Fama French paper titled “Volatility Lessons”. He starts off reviewing the historic size of the market, size, and value premiums. He then begins to describe their riskiness by looking at the sta...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18937

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-be-prepared-losses?nopaging=1 Larry reviews a Fama French paper titled “Volatility Lessons”. He starts off reviewing the historic size of the market, size, and value premiums. He then begins to describe their riskiness by looking at the sta...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?
Replies: 16
Views: 1345

Re: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?

Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful? I charted them and they seem to be highly correlated. The two biggest countries in the emerging market index are China and Taiwan. Is it meaningful to say they are emerging? "Emerging" does not describe the return ...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Personal Inflation Rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 2487

Re: What's Your Personal Inflation Rate?

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, measures the change in prices of a fixed set of items. So if chicken thighs are one of the items and the price of chicken thighs goes up, it will cause an increase in the index. Your substitution of pork chops for chicken thighs isn’t reflected in the CPI changes....
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18
Replies: 49
Views: 8411

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are ...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18
Replies: 49
Views: 8411

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. P...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 153
Views: 12429

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

"Gold is money, everything else is credit." J. Pierpont Morgan Gold is money plain and simple. The fact that it is on the balance sheet of every major central bank should end any argument equating gold to a simple commodity. The benefit of gold is not that it is just money but that it has no counte...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18
Replies: 49
Views: 8411

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are ...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18
Replies: 49
Views: 8411

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

Personally I'd dollar-cost-average back in, once you've chosen your asset allocation. Something like 20% every 2 weeks until you're fully back in. Pushing 100% in today during this Trump/China/yield inversion scare-fest would bother me. At TD Ameritrade, with a 3-fund portfolio, this would cost me ...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Weather Portfolio - Ray Dalio during slow growth/ downturn? How to balance bonds in low yield w/ rising rates?
Replies: 14
Views: 1383

Re: All Weather Portfolio - Ray Dalio during slow growth/ downturn? How to balance bonds in low yield w/ rising rates?

So tony robbins/ ray Dalio heavy on bonds and some gold with only 30% in equities Will this do well in the next downturn where we just had an 'inverse yield curve' and long-term bond yields are super 'low'? If the market tanks soon (6 months to 2 years) then where will 'safe havens' be? Precious me...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums
Replies: 96
Views: 6885

Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

What other investing philosophies/strategies do you find most likely to compete with Bogleheads in the years to come? Bay Area housing. There have been lots of threads about that along with other high cost of living areas. Housing in the Bay Area have enjoyed a 8% year over year appreciation, and 6...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 139
Views: 11847

Re: Who else is getting excited?

Pre-1998, we (U.S.) didn't even have 5% of the magnitude of debt (country and consumer), negative net worth, or imaginary money pumped into the system. How long do you think the gravy train will last the way we are going? I thought I was clear enough in that post that I prefer not to indulge in ima...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 139
Views: 11847

Re: Who else is getting excited?

No, not excited to lose money. I get excited when I make money. Sometimes I think these type of posts greatly underestimate the potential risk out there. The past down turns and very fast recoveries have spoiled current investors. If you look at what happened in the Great Depression and still get e...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 139
Views: 11847

Re: Who else is getting excited?

More confused then excited ha! I have a long-term IPS that i have mapped out after owning a single stock my grandfather gave me shares of when i was six that i decided to sell a few months ago near its high and begin to add to roth's and diversify properly which i've just established this year. Unf...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 139
Views: 11847

Re: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]

I can’t help it, but when I read headlines such as “worst market to invest since the 1970s as almost all markets decline” or worst quarter in 7 years etc, I view that as positive news for a long term investor. I’m nowhere near retirement, so a year like this year simply means I can invest at lower ...
by WanderingDoc
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 153
Views: 12429

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

"Gold is money, everything else is credit." J. Pierpont Morgan Gold is money plain and simple. The fact that it is on the balance sheet of every major central bank should end any argument equating gold to a simple commodity. The benefit of gold is not that it is just money but that it has no counte...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?
Replies: 16
Views: 1345

Re: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?

Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful? I charted them and they seem to be highly correlated. The two biggest countries in the emerging market index are China and Taiwan. Is it meaningful to say they are emerging? "Emerging" does not describe the return ...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 85
Views: 12122

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

MJW wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:39 am
protagonist wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:30 am
What happened to "past performance does not predict future returns" ??
That principle is applied selectively around here.
If that statement was really true, no one would study history.
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

Maybe I suggest - get a PM so you can scale your portfolio. One disaster like that won't be stressful to you if you have 9 other cash-flowing properties. I would never self-manage a SFH, a condo is easy to do so since there is no roof, heaters, or other CapEx to worry about. Huh? What difference do...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

You're not renting out your rental property? Why did you quote two of my posts and put them together. Were you trying to make a point? Because you didn't say anything, merely just quoted me. I said there aren't the same deals on real estate everywhere. You said you don't have to buy in your area. T...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18
Replies: 49
Views: 8411

Re: Solid my entire portfolio 12/3/18

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good ...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

I have properties that I manage and others with a PM - to date I have not received a call about a leaky toilet in the middle of the night. If I can do this during residency in a competitive specialty or while 3 weeks in Japan with limited cell service, so can anyone :twisted: However please realize...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

Do you know the difference between renting a house and buying a house? Again, see my sig. You're not renting out your rental property? Why did you quote two of my posts and put them together. Were you trying to make a point? Because you didn't say anything, merely just quoted me. I said there aren'...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 153
Views: 12429

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

"Gold is money, everything else is credit." J. Pierpont Morgan Gold is money plain and simple. The fact that it is on the balance sheet of every major central bank should end any argument equating gold to a simple commodity. The benefit of gold is not that it is just money but that it has no counte...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 85
Views: 12122

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

I realized today, after researching it to post in another thread, that the S&P500 forward PE is 16. I don't know what the future will bring. But I don't agree with anyone who says we are near the end of some incredible run and doomed to mediocrity (or worse). Not singling you out but I just do not ...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

I never said you should rent a place far away from where you live. (see my signature!) The above example is a turn key property, fully rehabbed and fully managed by the firm for you. Very little work on your part. In my personal portfolio my returns are much better than that since I usually do a ca...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8536
Views: 1669625

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Pushed all my dry powder in today on Fidelity Total Stock Market Hope it goes up before I retire in 20 years. When is your next free steak dinner? Or you can put that money into something that produces income now, tomorrow, and in 20 years. sorry, I must be missing the joke here. There are asset cl...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

I never said you should rent a place far away from where you live. (see my signature!) The above example is a turn key property, fully rehabbed and fully managed by the firm for you. Very little work on your part. In my personal portfolio my returns are much better than that since I usually do a ca...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

I'm considering purchasing a condominium with cash in a college town (professional area, not college kids) that costs $200,000 (including cost for renovations). The property would be valued around $230,000 after renovations. I would like to then rent the property for a steady source of income. I am...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

I'm considering purchasing a condominium with cash in a college town (professional area, not college kids) that costs $200,000 (including cost for renovations). The property would be valued around $230,000 after renovations. I would like to then rent the property for a steady source of income. I am...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5937

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

What percent of Managers beat the market before they charge their Fees? According to S&P research, about 20% of U.S. domestic equity funds beat the market before fees. It drops to 12% after fees. https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-spiva-institutional-scorecard-how-much-do-fees-aff...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8536
Views: 1669625

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There are asset classes which have certain benefits not available to paper investors. Like a monthly income stream that can help you achieve financial freedom before you are old or dead. Legally not having to pay taxes on your income is a nice bonus as well. Not exactly joking! I can make the same ...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8536
Views: 1669625

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Or you can put that money into something that produces income now, tomorrow, and in 20 years. sorry, I must be missing the joke here. No money down real estate; ask me how. How? Simply attend a no obligation seminar to find out more. Humor is a great self defense mechanism, helps when you are inves...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8536
Views: 1669625

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Pushed all my dry powder in today on Fidelity Total Stock Market Hope it goes up before I retire in 20 years. Or you can put that money into something that produces income now, tomorrow, and in 20 years. sorry, I must be missing the joke here. There are asset classes which have certain benefits not...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8536
Views: 1669625

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Pushed all my dry powder in today on Fidelity Total Stock Market Hope it goes up before I retire in 20 years. Or you can put that money into something that produces income now, tomorrow, and in 20 years. I don't know if you (or I) will be around, mobile, or healthy in 20 years, but I am fairy certa...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

I was thinking about you before looking at your username, i remember earlier this year and last year you always backed real estate. I finally bought my first place in August, 3 bed 2 bath single family home for 190k. Currently living in one room and renting out the other 2 to my friends (who have b...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired in your late 40s or early 50s?
Replies: 82
Views: 12142

Re: Retired in your late 40s or early 50s?

If you pay $250/mo. in rent you could have retired at 30. Not sure why you waited so long. In any case, enjoy! LOL. Actually I couldn't of because I was married with 2 kids and a Networth of about 70k. But after I was divorced at 39 I went on a mission to build a networth of 1M and actually hit 1.8...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired in your late 40s or early 50s?
Replies: 82
Views: 12142

Re: Retired in your late 40s or early 50s?

Retired in May at 59 and now live full time in Mazatlan, Mexico 1 block from the ocean. Love it. Rent 250 USD give or take depending on the exchange rate. I inline skate a couple hours in the morning, sometimes surf fish a couple hours, go for a run after sunset and usually hang out somewhere outsi...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Invest (Up To $3500 Offer)
Replies: 9
Views: 2365

Re: Ally Invest (Up To $3500 Offer)

djkimd wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:35 am
few months ago, my brother did this with schwab.
had to get approval, but in the end, similar rules;
- he deposited 2M and the bonus was 4k.
Who said the saying "you need money to make money" was a myth! :P
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5937

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

It's funny to see numerous posters on this thread quite bent on asserting that a (non-negligible) minority of fund managers can make a real difference. I have yet to hear a single hard fact going in this direction. Admittedly, most people on this forum (incl. myself) may have a bit of a selective l...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5937

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

When I choose a plumber, or a prom date, its not (very) hard to weed out the bad ones. Logically, the same logic would apply to fund managers. That has not held up empirically. The track record for choosing active managers a priori who will outperform has been poor even among financial pros with fa...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5937

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

Most data, thanks I think to regulations, is after the expense ratio. (It doesn't include sales loads for load funds, or transaction costs). It is my personal belief , just an impression, that many managers probably do have the skill to generate something like 0.5%/year in alpha through clever sele...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5937

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

What percent of Managers beat the market before they charge their Fees? According to S&P research, about 20% of U.S. domestic equity funds beat the market before fees. It drops to 12% after fees. https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-spiva-institutional-scorecard-how-much-do-fees-aff...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

I own one rental property (a duplex). I live in the property, and like owning my own dwelling outright. I don't mind not having a mortgage on it, but if I were serious about real estate the smart move would be to use leverage. Not using leverage on real estate is dumb, considering the tax advantage...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too Much Savings Regret
Replies: 110
Views: 15417

Re: Too Much Savings Regret

I'm in awe as I read Boglehead topics on how people are trying to save 20/50 times their salary for retirement and wonder if this can be done successfully without sacrificing "enjoyment"? There are several issues at work here. First, if you're earning $200k in a low cost of living area, you can eas...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Coming Retirement Crisis - Real Vision
Replies: 14
Views: 3159

Re: The Coming Retirement Crisis - Real Vision

Oh geez with the foreboding music.

The financial industry makes it's money from spreading fear and worry. It's the oldest trick in the book.
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

If I get into REI, wouldn't I want cash flow over ROI? I could get infinite ROI if I made $1 on a $0 down loan. That seems silly to me. All that gives me is braggin' rights on the Bogleheads fora. What I would really like to do is take $400k and have it generate $40k/year in net cash flow. That sur...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5048

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

I'm considering purchasing a condominium with cash in a college town (professional area, not college kids) that costs $200,000 (including cost for renovations). The property would be valued around $230,000 after renovations. I would like to then rent the property for a steady source of income. I am...