Search found 1952 matches

by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected earning in next 10 years
Replies: 12
Views: 886

Re: Expected earning in next 10 years

I tend to fall more in the 4% nominal that Bogle predicts. But I’ve consistently underestimated returns for decades. I could be wrong again.

6% seems like a stretch with 2-3% bond rates. Your stocks would have to get 8-10%, which seems unlikely at current valuations.
by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for first job with benefits at 28
Replies: 6
Views: 389

Re: Advice for first job with benefits at 28

Hi all, Firstly, thanks in advance for any advice you all might offer. After polling my peers on facebook (like a true millenial) about their current retirement savings statuses, I started reading the "Boglehead's Guide to Investing" upon a friend's recommendation. I am in the middle of it now (tak...
by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 26
Views: 1308

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

The EMH assumes rational actors. Otherwise, it would be impossible for all information to be reflected in prices. There's an important distinction between "price quickly comes to reflect available information" and "prices are 'rationally' set by information." The former refers to the speed of infor...
by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backdoor Roth / step-transaction doctrine news: [Congress recognizes process]
Replies: 16
Views: 1020

Re: "Congress put its stamp of approval on [backdoor Roth]" - Forbes

So why don't they just explicitly remove the income restriction? In order to legislate that there would be a cost to the overall budget and deficit, and that would either have to be offset or overrridden. There is probably no explicit budget cost to just allowing what is already happening in terms ...
by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken's future direction - a cause for concern
Replies: 509
Views: 65056

Re: Quicken's future direction - a cause for concern

For those looking for a deal on Quicken 2018 Premier, I just ordered the 2 year disc from Sams Club for $81.56 shipped (a cool ~$50 off Amazon albeit with 3 months less). Deal is valid until January 28th. Do not order for local pickup. Your order will get cancelled :) Link here https://www.samsclub...
by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much $ worth of things have you discarded without using?
Replies: 18
Views: 1162

Re: How much $ worth of things have you discarded without using?

It would easily be in the hundreds of dollars. We are all guilty but my daughter is the worst when it comes to clothes.

We did a lot of discarding and goodwilling during our recent remodel. I don’t even want to think how much of that was never or rarely used.
by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you get your auto loans?
Replies: 28
Views: 1580

Re: Where do you get your auto loans?

In order to get the cash back and incentives that I got, you had to finance the car. Usually it is either/or options. You can get 0% financing from the dealership (in this case it was 0.9%) or get a bunch of money off up front (in this case, around 15% off MSRP). Since I took the money off up front...
by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does Tax Reform affect Refi with Cash out?
Replies: 10
Views: 570

Re: How does Tax Reform affect Refi with Cash out?

grabiner is right. Mortgage interest is deductible to the extent to acquire, build or substantially improve the primary residence. There is a recent article on this very topic by Kitces. It is the responsibility of the tax payer to determine and track over time how much is deductible. https://www.k...
by JBTX
Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you get your auto loans?
Replies: 28
Views: 1580

Re: Where do you get your auto loans?

In order to get the cash back and incentives that I got, you had to finance the car. Usually it is either/or options. You can get 0% financing from the dealership (in this case it was 0.9%) or get a bunch of money off up front (in this case, around 15% off MSRP). Since I took the money off up front...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone subscribe to Kiplinger's, Kiplinger's Retirement Review, or Smart Money?
Replies: 21
Views: 1302

Re: Does anyone subscribe to Kiplinger's, Kiplinger's Retirement Review, or Smart Money?

I’ve off and on subscribed to Money with expiring airline points. I rarely look at it. Most of the time the info is pretty basic. Seems like it is geared towards people who don’t know a lot about money. Many years ago had smart money, mostly the same thing. Long time ago got a trial of kiplingers. W...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question re 2018 tax rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1421

Re: Question re 2018 tax rates

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2017/12/17/what-the-2018-tax-brackets-standard-deduction-amounts-and-more-look-like-under-tax-reform/amp/ What you originally said was correct except it is called a “standard deduction”, not an “exemption”. The result is the same. If...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question re 2018 tax rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1421

Re: Question re 2018 tax rates

Yes you are correct
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Stereo Questions
Replies: 23
Views: 1062

Re: Car Stereo Questions

Years ago we had an old Toyota Avalon and the car stereo died. Dealer wanted to charge fee just to diagnose. Instead We went to Car Toys and had a fairly basic unit installed and kept the existing speakers and it worked fine. Actually sounded a little better. I think it was a couple of hundred $ ins...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medical Appointment Cancellation Policies/Fees
Replies: 36
Views: 1956

Re: Medical Appointment Cancellation Policies/Fees

9 Times out of 10 a simple phone call and explaining the situation will resolve the situation.
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 366
Views: 58720

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

It was interesting reading some of the posts back in 2008. In many cases not quite the level of resolve to “stay the course” compared to now after a 10 year bull market. In terms of lessons learned for me (some of these took a few years to sink in) 1. Diversification doesn’t always work. Apart from ...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Should Probably Just Give Up Trying To Beat The Stock Market"
Replies: 19
Views: 2990

Re: "Why You Should Probably Just Give Up Trying To Beat The Stock Market"

Over the years I’ve read his columns and found them interesting. It tells you something when a guy who’s primary focus was to track the best performing newsletters come to the conclusion it isn’t worth the effort.
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keeping it in a shoe-box is a safer AA
Replies: 37
Views: 3494

Re: Keeping it in a shoe-box is a safer AA

I agree on getting qualified tax accountant or attorney. These should qualify for step up but there may be some effort involved in actually determining the beginning and ending basis.
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A 4-5% rebalance to bonds barely budges risk/return
Replies: 38
Views: 2677

Re: A 4-5% rebalance to bonds barely budges risk/return

Like many, due to this run up I'm now 5% from my target asset allocation (or 75/25 instead of my target 70/30). Interestingly, using Vanguard's Portfolio Tester tool, if I exchange $35k worth of TSM for $35k of Total Bond, here are the results: Your current allocation Average return 9.3% Best year ...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with my investments. Too much cash
Replies: 16
Views: 1854

Re: Help with my investments. Too much cash

For five years I’d probably do the same options as I listed above. Personally I wouldn’t be sinking much or any money in stocks for 5 years or less. There might be a marginal benefit of doing a 529 for kids school especially if you get state tax deduction. Seems like the bigger issue is your 40% or...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K
Replies: 61
Views: 4547

Re: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K

I think the recent tax change strengthens the argument for not using a Roth 401k. People continuously say tax rates are going up in the future so use the Roth 401k. Guess what, they just went down. Predicting the future is difficult. Consensus among economists and other math scientists is that futu...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with my investments. Too much cash
Replies: 16
Views: 1854

Re: Help with my investments. Too much cash

Emergency fund: Yes for 12 months (savings/checking) Debt: 250k Mortgage at 3% (Recent appraisal at 450k) Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly with two kids age 17 and 14 Tax Rate: 24%(2018) , 28%(2017) Federal, 5.75% State State of Residence: NC Age: His 48, Her 45 Desired Asset allocation: 6...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion in 2018 - makes more sense now?
Replies: 4
Views: 600

Re: Roth conversion in 2018 - makes more sense now?

I was just wondering, as I haven’t noticed this topic since the new tax bill. First, any good recent literature on this that anyone could share. Second, the theory is that taxes will probably never be lower and only to rise again. If the money is available to convert now some part of my IRA to a Ro...
by JBTX
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K
Replies: 61
Views: 4547

Re: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K

My current Roth v. Pre-Tax balances are about 25% and 75% of my total retirement savings. I would like to get it closer to 50/50. So yes, as a combo of the new tax rates combined with the fact that I think in 2-3 years we'll bump up another tax rate due to increasing income, I plan to devote some p...
by JBTX
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear of dying with too much money?
Replies: 137
Views: 7584

Re: Fear of dying with too much money?

Dying with too much money is a symptom of a problem I do perceive on Bogleheads and that’s the pursuit of absolute economic certainty regardless of cost. YES! This exactly. So many on this thread have responded along the lines of "I could never have too much money..." But that misses the point. It ...
by JBTX
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear of dying with too much money?
Replies: 137
Views: 7584

Re: Fear of dying with too much money?

Your post seems pretty glib about the prospect of running out of money. That was certainly not my intent. But many Bogleheads have made a point that actually exhausting a sizable portfolio during retirement is something so rare as to not be a very realistic possibility for those reading this forum....
by JBTX
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Payoff Advice with Appreciated Securities
Replies: 17
Views: 847

Re: Mortgage Payoff Advice with Appreciated Securities

KlangFool - thanks for the continued follow-up. My view is that a recession is an ordinary part of the business cycle. It is why I stay at 60/40 - to allow me to sleep at night. I consider a dramatic change as a once in every 30-50 year event (depression/major market crash; large scale war; other b...
by JBTX
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Telemarketing calls from my own prefix
Replies: 44
Views: 2736

Re: Telemarketing calls from my own prefix

For our ISP landline we use nomorobo and it has been pretty effective at screening robo calls
Out. We get at least several every day. On my mobile I use robokiller. Seems to work pretty well. You have to pay $2.50 a month. I’ve received so few of these calls lately I’m contemplating dropping it.
by JBTX
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses
Replies: 107
Views: 6862

Re: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses

WCI, I really enjoyed reading your post. I always like to hear from professionals who work within a field that can give a unique perspective to an issue. Overall I think most of the post was an affirmation of what I thought was true and not necessarily new to me. I’m not in the medical field but hav...
by JBTX
Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses
Replies: 107
Views: 6862

Re: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses

# 1 - It is screwed up, broken, and embarrassing to be a part of. Thank you for being upfront and honest about this situation. As patients, we often wonder if the doctors even know this or care. # 5 - Doctors and nurses generally aren't in control of what's on your bill(s) nor does most of the mone...
by JBTX
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your annual cost of living (expenses)?
Replies: 40
Views: 3050

Re: What's your annual cost of living (expenses)?

That number varies a lot for us. Married two kids in teens Last year few years we have averaged around $150k per year. That includes employee portion of medical insurance premiums. Includes full mortgage payment. That does not include income tax and payroll taxes ( but does include property taxes) ,...
by JBTX
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning Swimming @ 40+
Replies: 37
Views: 1712

Re: Learning Swimming @ 40+

I found in teaching my kids to swim that putting face in the water and opening eyes was a big hurdle. Letting them learn with swimming goggles helped. Definitely do lessons, but it really shouldn’t be hard. Go to a shallow end around 4 feet deep. Unless you are a male athlete with low body fat you c...
by JBTX
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I got a Roomba and think you should too
Replies: 41
Views: 3587

Re: I got a Roomba and think you should too

Nearly $800 is an awful lot of money. Perhaps if they go down in price some. Even with two young children, there isn't the necessity (as in, we can't see anything on the carpet) to vacuum more than about once or possibly twice a week. Takes all of 5-10min for me to do the entire house (and my home ...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why hold bond funds in tax advantaged accounts?
Replies: 16
Views: 1782

Re: Why hold bond funds in tax advantaged accounts?

First of all the returns you are using are not indicative of long term returns. Most people expect nominal returns on stocks to be in the 4-6% range over next decade and 10 year bonds are between 2 and 3 percent. It is true that there is a trade off of lower tax rates on stocks vs potentially highe...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I got a Roomba and think you should too
Replies: 41
Views: 3587

Re: I got a Roomba and think you should too

I see Roomba questions pop up every once in a while on this forum so I thought I’d post my recent experiences. I live in the SF Bay Area and live in a 1,000 sqft house with my wife and (2) large dogs. Dog hair is a constant issue in our house, and requires constant clean up. The hair sits noticeabl...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why hold bond funds in tax advantaged accounts?
Replies: 16
Views: 1782

Re: Why hold bond funds in tax advantaged accounts?

First of all the returns you are using are not indicative of long term returns. Most people expect nominal returns on stocks to be in the 4-6% range over next decade and 10 year bonds are between 2 and 3 percent. It is true that there is a trade off of lower tax rates on stocks vs potentially higher...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ibonds, cds and treasury direct questions
Replies: 6
Views: 824

Re: ibonds, cds and treasury direct questions

Currently the IBonds have very low real yields. I believe people only purchase IBonds when their 401k programs have poor bond fund selections. All bonds have low yields right now. As a long term piece of your bond allocation it isn’t going to be your best bet but if viewed as a cash reserve substit...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ibonds, cds and treasury direct questions
Replies: 6
Views: 824

Re: ibonds, cds and treasury direct questions

Hi all, Need some help. I read about ibonds, CDs, etc for short term reserves and frankly have been somewhat paralyzed about pulling the trigger. Well, new year and need to finalize - or I'll keep losing money to inflation. PLus, waiting for the ibonds to recalculate or finding the best CD rate rea...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Job terminated. Convert small pension to lump sum or annuity?
Replies: 18
Views: 1505

Re: Job terminated. Convert small pension to lump sum or annuity?

Based on this assuming 55 years of payout that is just over 4.0% to get to $27k present value. You be better off rolling into Ira. That's what I was looking for, thank you. To the other posters, thank you for the affirmation. That’s a pretty crappy return. I would have expected something closer to ...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Family Balance and Children's Athletics
Replies: 37
Views: 2457

Re: Family Balance and Children's Athletics

I agree some of the level of time and commitment to sports is over the top, especially when it involves private clubs. Having said that I spent my childhood years 7-18 doing competitive swimming. The only rule my parents had was i had to do something active. Around 12 or 13 I considered quitting but...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why even have Bonds in a 401k?
Replies: 30
Views: 2903

Re: Why even have Bonds in a 401k?

100% stocks at that age seems fairly aggressive. Would you be able to withstand a 50-60% drop and it taking 10-20 years to recover? That is not an implausible scenario. Also going 100% stock when the market is at all time highs and valuations are at highs seems a bit imprudent. As to having emergenc...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Job terminated. Convert small pension to lump sum or annuity?
Replies: 18
Views: 1505

Re: Job terminated. Convert small pension to lump sum or annuity?

I have a small personal pension account worth $26,548 with the following options 1) Take the $26,548 lump sum (rollover into IRA) 2) Single life annuity: $104.15/mo 3) 50% joint and survivor annuity: $101.21/mo, $50.61/mo (beneficiary) I'm 36 years old and have no need for the income right now (wif...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are these benefits from my employer good ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1388

Re: Are these benefits from my employer good ?

Just read through employee manual for thr first time for a new job. Are these benefits good or do I need to get something separately? Is there anything else you guys have that I should consider getting because they dont offer? Health insurance - not much choice but ill include for you to compare -3...
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: dryer vent cleaning--your thoughts?
Replies: 32
Views: 5219

Re: dryer vent cleaning--your thoughts?

I use local professional about once per year. I’ve tried to use plumber snakes vacuums and even leaf blower but my vent goes out a high roof and makes some near 90 degree turns along the way.
by JBTX
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Law Sunset 2025 - Roth vs Traditional
Replies: 90
Views: 7597

Re: Tax Law Sunset 2025 - Roth vs Traditional

I think the current law, and its sunset provisions, just puts more strain on the assumption that all decisions should be made based upon current tax law - which is the default forum recommendation. Moderators correct me if this is incorrect, but it's not the forum's recommendation for how to actual...
by JBTX
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unable to recover or create new Morningstar Discuss account. Help.
Replies: 6
Views: 447

Re: Unable to recover or create new Morningstar Discuss account. Help.

If I log into my Morningstar premium and go to forums it automatically brings up the user name I created years ago and it allows me to post in the forums (or it allowed me to bring up a post reply - i didn’t actually post)
by JBTX
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Analyze Sweet Spot on Insurance Deductibles - Challenging my Preconceived Notions
Replies: 25
Views: 1513

Re: How to Analyze Sweet Spot on Insurance Deductibles - Challenging my Preconceived Notions

If I had no collision I would have had to probably pay $7000 for two accidents that weren’t my fault. That's only true if it were an unknown person who was at fault. If you're in an accident and get the information, you can make a claim directly with the at fault person's insurance company. Where y...
by JBTX
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Analyze Sweet Spot on Insurance Deductibles - Challenging my Preconceived Notions
Replies: 25
Views: 1513

Re: How to Analyze Sweet Spot on Insurance Deductibles - Challenging my Preconceived Notions

Our auto is $1000 and Home is somewhere near $5000 I think. It is something like 1.5 to 2.0% of home value. I’ve replaced 2 roofs in last 6 hears due to hail and had 2 accidents that weren’t my fault but still had to fork out deductible. The math of higher deductibles hasn’t worked out for me in rec...
by JBTX
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owning house in a trust?
Replies: 17
Views: 1771

Re: Owning house in a trust?

A few years ago when we redid our wills and living trusts the attorney recommended putting house in trust so we did. Not sure if it is worth it. I then had to sign some form with the county to maintain homestead exemption. Also when I refinanced they added some closing package forms to take it out o...
by JBTX
Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stats on When People Take Social Security
Replies: 170
Views: 11104

Re: Stats on When People Take Social Security

And then there are some, admittedly few, who took SS at 62 because they had young children who would get benefits, and a spouse who would wait until age 70. Not everyone filing at 62 “doesn’t get it.” 🍅 🍅 We have an autistic son who very well may be eligible for disability. If I understand it corre...
by JBTX
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any situations where you don’t max retirement opportunities?
Replies: 16
Views: 1985

Re: Are there any situations where you don’t max retirement opportunities?

I've been working on a spreadsheet much of the day mapping out income, withdrawals from retirement, etc, and it is pretty depressing. :( Conclusions: 1. We are going to have to cut back on spending. 2. Even if we cut back from where we are, assumptions still show us draining our liquid cash by the t...