Search found 6087 matches

by JBTX
Fri May 29, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 1913
Views: 207657

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

Started into second half of season 5 of Vikings on Amazon. It's been a while since I watched Vikings. I really liked the first 2 or 3 seasons but it grown far less interesting. I'd probably abandon it if there were something else I wanted to watch. Anybody else feel like there is nothing (or very li...
by JBTX
Fri May 29, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 88
Views: 9309

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

There is no doubt he has been perpetually doom and gloom and wrong for over a decade. Nonetheless I still read his articles. I can't dismiss any of his assertions. They are all plausible. I guess the biggest hole, if you will, is he has listed a laundry list of risks, but not taken into account vari...
by JBTX
Fri May 29, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 63
Views: 3664

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

Can someone please explain why Vanguard adds TIPS only upon retirement age to their Target Retirement funds? What is it about TIPS and/or Vanguard's view on TIPS that only makes them appropriate in one's deccumulation phase? I don't think Vanguard has ever actually explained why they don't include ...
by JBTX
Fri May 29, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 150
Views: 14646

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

The late 70s was horrible on stocks and bonds. If you thought there were any chance something close to that can happen you wouldn't leverage both. When interest rates drop for 30 years to near zero people assume such events like that won't happen again. I don't expect interest rates to go up anytim...
by JBTX
Tue May 26, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 364
Views: 27615

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

KF, Sorry to hear this, but if anybody has the right state of mind to deal with it certainly that would be you. Went through this myself years ago, but I'm not IT. Landed some contract gigs, mostly not full time. Years later picked up a full time job that I generally like. If it were me I'd prefer a...
by JBTX
Tue May 26, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15460

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I totally get it how some would look at this now, and say OMG worst timing possible! I also think the way to look at this is with a degree of patience. Most every bear market plays out in a time frame measured in years and with multiple rallies in the middle (except maybe 1987). So the way I look a...
by JBTX
Tue May 26, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 82
Views: 9012

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

This is temporary. Businesses are closed (were closed) because they had to, not because there was a problem with the economy. They’ll open, people will be rehired, life will move on, markets will go up. Maybe, but I doubt it is that simple, and it may take a while. I'd say it is more along the line...
by JBTX
Tue May 26, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Indexing "During the 2010s. Index funds delivered as promised."
Replies: 3
Views: 607

Re: "Indexing "During the 2010s. Index funds delivered as promised."

It's really just math. As long as the market goes up, and active funds have fees, most of them will underperform the longer you go.
by JBTX
Tue May 26, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New here, need help with creating a nest egg for my autistic son
Replies: 19
Views: 1559

Re: New here, need help with creating a nest egg for my autistic son

Similar situation as yours but further along. ASD son is teen, daughter now adult but won't be capable of handling these things, not by a long shot. Currently have highly competent relatives as trustee but we may rethink that. Special needs trust may be in order either soon or approaching adulthood....
by JBTX
Tue May 26, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto Insurance Adult Child/gap/Is this legit?
Replies: 11
Views: 850

Re: Auto Insurance Adult Child/gap/Is this legit?

When 19 year old moved out eventually insurance company said she would need own policy since different home. Don't know if that always applies. We moved to her own policy. Cost was roughly the same but the liability limits aren't as high (nor do they need to be). We wanted her off anyway because her...
by JBTX
Tue May 26, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5073

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

With interest rates set to stay near zero for the foreseeable future, the Fed instituting massive monetary easing for Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, entire industries being bailed out with government cash (i.e. airlines), and consumer confidence likely not to rebound any time soon due t...
by JBTX
Mon May 25, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Robot vacuums
Replies: 28
Views: 1707

Re: Robot vacuums

We have had 2 Eufys for about 6 months. One for upstairs and one for down. They have been pretty good but took some planning to get it where they didn't get stuck on items and such. We run them on a daily schedule and really keeps the dirt down in the house. We have 2 eufy 11s. That model is fairly...
by JBTX
Mon May 25, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8457

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

I called ATT to verify the procedure: 1. If you set up a 4-8 digit pass code (not same as password) then you will have to give or enter that pass code any time you make changes to your account including moving cell number to different SIM 2. If moving SIM they will also send you a onetime PIN to you...
by JBTX
Sun May 24, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Account - a Swiss Army Knife for Savers
Replies: 42
Views: 5641

Re: Taxable Account - a Swiss Army Knife for Savers

With insanely low long term bond yields, at the moment options like ibonds, eebonds if held 20 years or even paying off 3%+ mortgages are seemingly more attractive in certain circumstances vs having low yield intermediate or long term bonds in tax deferred accounts. Our ability to pursue those optio...
by JBTX
Sun May 24, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 5442
Views: 1350195

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Watched Melancholia for the time on Hulu. Definitely not a feel good movie, but there something strangely attractive about it. It is divided into 2 parts. The first part, about a bipolar woman's wedding is so - so, but it is the second part, about another planet heading in the direction or Earth, I ...
by JBTX
Sun May 24, 2020 3:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 113
Views: 5803

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

When I have had success it has been tracking what I eat, which has been my fitness pal. If I am diligent it keeps me honest, and isn't necessarily that hard. Inevitably I stop tracking after months, and may keep it off for a bit but then revert to bad habits. I'm once again giving it a try, and hope...
by JBTX
Sat May 23, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7000

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Regarding Taleb's grasp on reality: I like to share Sam Harris's take on Taleb. Sam Harris is a polarizing guy in his own right, but this quote is too entertaining not to share. See it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/samharris/comments/9nnxyk/sam_harris_on_nassim_taleb/ That being said, insofar as T...
by JBTX
Fri May 22, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7000

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

It is possible that someone can beat the market on a risk adjusted basis (if nothing else, people can get lucky). The problem is that you can not reliably do it and you cannot reliably identify anyone who can reliably do it. Trying to beat the market will most likely result in underperforming, espe...
by JBTX
Fri May 22, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CapitalOne Venture would not forgive annual fee
Replies: 32
Views: 1857

Re: CapitalOne Venture would not forgive annual fee

Some cards will waive the fee and some don't, and sometimes they only do it once. I ask, and if they don't I explore no fee downgrade options, and if none then cancel. Years ago I had venture card and I don't think they would waive fee, so I downgraded to a savor. I got lucky in that they subsequent...
by JBTX
Thu May 21, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity?
Replies: 38
Views: 2502

Re: Annuity?

I wouldn't tie up money in an annuity just to make 2.6%.
by JBTX
Thu May 21, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11454

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

F150HD wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:36 pm
no clue who Tepper (?) is. Taffer? Trapper John? Jack Tripper?
Jack the ripper? Jake Tapper?
by JBTX
Thu May 21, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax attorney weirdness
Replies: 40
Views: 3216

Re: Tax attorney weirdness

Some real gems in there, thank you. I'm an investor so I'll go over this carefully: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Outline_of_tax_considerations_for_investors Can I avoid becoming an expert on all of this by hiring the right person or firm? Is that a tax attorney, CPA, CFP, EA...? Maybe it could b...
by JBTX
Thu May 21, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1564
Views: 142612

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

We currently are at 3.25% with around $150k. In TX hard to get math to work with such heavy refi fees. Quicken loans was 2.75%, half point, and around $4000 of closing fees. Would take over 5 years to breakeven. I just tried better online and best rate was 2.75%, with about 2 points plus closing fe...
by JBTX
Thu May 21, 2020 2:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1564
Views: 142612

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

We currently are at 3.25% with around $150k. In TX hard to get math to work with such heavy refi fees. Quicken loans was 2.75%, half point, and around $4000 of closing fees. Would take over 5 years to breakeven. I just tried better online and best rate was 2.75%, with about 2 points plus closing fe...
by JBTX
Wed May 20, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ditch 401K for Roth to reduce taxation of SS Benefits
Replies: 18
Views: 1497

Re: Ditch 401K for Roth to reduce taxation of SS Benefits

I find the heat map on this wiki page to be very useful in estimating marginal rates when SS is involved: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taxation_of_Social_Security_benefits You don’t have to go through the details of how SS is taxed. Yes the heat map is very useful. Unfortunately it is so compres...
by JBTX
Wed May 20, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1564
Views: 142612

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

We currently are at 3.25% with around $150k. In TX hard to get math to work with such heavy refi fees. Quicken loans was 2.75%, half point, and around $4000 of closing fees. Would take over 5 years to breakeven. I just tried better online and best rate was 2.75%, with about 2 points plus closing fee...
by JBTX
Wed May 20, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: debt-to-GDP ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 891

Re: debt-to-GDP ratio?

Your point is valid about interest rates. It is sustainable if rates never go up again. But the result is fed is forced to go through great hoops to keep interest rates low. If inflation were to arise, increasing interest rates materially would have severe consequences. As to smaller less developed...
by JBTX
Wed May 20, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: debt-to-GDP ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 891

Re: debt-to-GDP ratio?

GDP is the size of the economy. It is as good a benchmark as any to measure the relative magnitude of debt. Except that you are comparing a stock to a flow and making an assumption about underlying interest rates. And that's precisely what has been changing. To use an oversimplistic and somewhat fl...
by JBTX
Tue May 19, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: debt-to-GDP ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 891

Re: debt-to-GDP ratio?

GDP is the size of the economy. It is as good a benchmark as any to measure the relative magnitude of debt. To use an oversimplistic and somewhat flawed comparison, somebody who makes $50k a year is going to have a lot harder time servicing a $250k debt than somebody who makes $250k per year. When l...
by JBTX
Mon May 18, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: adult child moving back
Replies: 43
Views: 8354

Re: adult child moving back

It really is hard to answer and is very specific to the situation. There are some situations where it is just impossible for the young adult to live at home because of the tension and the stress, and the inevitability to fall into prior parent child roles. Especially if there are psych issues involv...
by JBTX
Mon May 18, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to respond to poor life decision affecting job
Replies: 28
Views: 3202

Re: How to respond to poor life decision affecting job

Your decision process seemed sound. You covered all the bases. You did everything you were supposed to do and the employer inexplicably reversed course. Clearly something was amiss. Maybe they didn't value you as much as you thought. Maybe there was just a bad egg in the chain. What is done is done....
by JBTX
Mon May 18, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued
Replies: 45
Views: 3865

Re: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued

The problem is that there is no objective metric to determine when stocks are overvalued. That said, when a valuation metric like CAPE is up around 90, like Japanese stocks were at their peak, it seems very safe to call that grossly overvalued. But the CAPE for U.S. isn't even remotely close to tha...
by JBTX
Sun May 17, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7704

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

If you are a long term investor your stock and bond positions likely benefited from the drop in rates. Unless you were primarily in cash or short term bonds, you ended up with substantially more, unless you decided to save less because your retirement portfolio increased. As to strategies, overall I...
by JBTX
Sun May 17, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SECURE Act - Special Needs Trusts
Replies: 51
Views: 4781

Re: SECURE Act - Special Needs Trusts

With the exception of trusts for disabled or chronically ill persons, the subsequent beneficiaries still have to be individuals (or other trusts for individuals) in order to get the 10-year stretch rather than 5 years. However, there's no restriction on who may be a remainder beneficiary of a trust...
by JBTX
Sun May 17, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent is increased by 6%, negotiation tips?
Replies: 60
Views: 5091

Re: Rent is increased by 6%, negotiation tips?

It depends on how much you want to push the issue. Are you willing to leave if you don't get what you want? You should determine that in advance. - as others have said, it would help to be dealing with a person with authority. Just recently daughter had issue that got contentious, and local manager ...
by JBTX
Sun May 17, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Discarding old tax returns
Replies: 62
Views: 5481

Re: Discarding old tax returns

after about 7 years I discard all backup and just keep tax forms and W2s. What about 1099s? (I am retired, no W2s) Brokerage statements, SS, IRS/state refund info? How about just saving the TruboTax digital file? There are no hard and fast rules here. I personally would probably save any document t...
by JBTX
Sat May 16, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 217
Views: 15427

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Once Elon Musk announces he has found a coronavirus cure I expect to be in the running again.
by JBTX
Sat May 16, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did you feel after giving notice to retire?
Replies: 52
Views: 4293

Re: How did you feel after giving notice to retire?

I suspect for me it won't be a conventional retirement. DW will likely not retire any time soon. I have no idea how long my current job will last, nor how long I will last in it or how long I'll stay. On balance I like having some work, having the income and benefits, but would rather not have the f...
by JBTX
Fri May 15, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which carrier for Personal Liability Insurance do you recommend
Replies: 17
Views: 775

Re: Which carrier for Personal Liability Insurance do you recommend

Typically umbrella vendor is same as auto liability since auto is the most likely source. Some umbrella carriers will only underwrite you if you have auto policy with them. And even if not required, you probably want your umbrella with the same insurer as your auto and home insurance. This way, if ...
by JBTX
Fri May 15, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who needs a firewall and who doesn't?
Replies: 18
Views: 1306

Re: Who needs a firewall and who doesn't?

If you have a router it serves as a firewall. Between a router and windows defender firewall you should be OK. I'm not an expert though.
by JBTX
Fri May 15, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which carrier for Personal Liability Insurance do you recommend
Replies: 17
Views: 775

Re: Which carrier for Personal Liability Insurance do you recommend

Typically umbrella vendor is same as auto liability since auto is the most likely source. Some umbrella carriers will only underwrite you if you have auto policy with them. I've had policies with progressive and GEICO. GEICO will let you go to $1 million on auto if you qualify. GEICO has changed the...
by JBTX
Fri May 15, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: close my amex blue preferred?
Replies: 16
Views: 1193

Re: close my amex blue preferred?

I started out having/using an amex blue cash everyday card 10 years or so ago, and then about 4 years ago got the amex blue preferred card for the better grocery rebates. For the foreseeable future we will now be getting most of our groceries via Amazon (with the 5% store card rebate), so the $95 a...
by JBTX
Fri May 15, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17930

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

About the only rational return based reason to hold long term bonds is you think long term rates will go negative. Otherwise the return is so low it doesn't seem worth it. It's also rational to hold long-term bonds if you're a long-term investor who wants to minimize interest rate risk. Or you thin...
by JBTX
Fri May 15, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 17930

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Perhaps you aren't the only one with a differing view, who is just as wrong as the others. How do we know? Because what he wrote in his column was based on a premise that is factually untrue? can you explain? Rekenthaler's premise is that there is not rational reason for anyone to buy and hold long...
by JBTX
Thu May 14, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve Spending
Replies: 6
Views: 902

Re: Federal Reserve Spending

Never heard of it. A quick perusal showed a quite obvious slant. I wouldn't rely on financial information that has a dog in the fight.
by JBTX
Thu May 14, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reacting to low interest rates
Replies: 80
Views: 5950

Re: Reacting to low interest rates

What am I doing differently? Not much yet.

Things I am considering-

-Bought Ibonds at 0.2%
-considering eebonds
-given passing thought to start paying down 3.25% mortgage
- while i haven't done anything about it I'm unlikely to increase allocation to conventional bonds at these rates
by JBTX
Thu May 14, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4295

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

thanks for the replies. To take it a step further. There is a negligible difference between total market index and s&p 500. Thus the bottom 4500 (or whatever the real number is) are essentially irrelevant. By extension, it is better to own the top 10-15 companies vs the bottom 4500. When you pare i...
by JBTX
Wed May 13, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Discarding old tax returns
Replies: 62
Views: 5481

Re: Discarding old tax returns

after about 7 years I discard all backup and just keep tax forms and W2s.
by JBTX
Wed May 13, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash out refi to invest 100k
Replies: 30
Views: 2198

Re: Cash out refi to invest 100k

generally agree with hedge fundie. I might do it around 3.0% or less, but only if there was substantial equity left over. I definitely would not at 3.75% and would not take it over 80% LTV.
by JBTX
Wed May 13, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
Replies: 224
Views: 13334

Re: Delta Sky-nightmare

https://www.elliott.org/ https://www.elliott.org/company-contacts/delta-airlines/ I'm 2 for 2 using this approach. Getting about 75000 expired miles reinstated for IHG, when even at flyer talk said would be near impossible. Also ATT got so messed up customer service just couldn't fix it. Left messag...