Search found 64 matches

by foo.c
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise
Replies: 298
Views: 28247

Re: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise

Unwise? I can't agree.

Sub-optimal? Probably, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.
by foo.c
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?
Replies: 127
Views: 13655

Re: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?

First time was no warning whatsoever. I had just been hired a few weeks earlier. Second time I missed the first few rounds and then they asked all employees to take a pay cut. I refused. (I knew it was inevitable anyways after the dot com implosion.) Third time half the company got emails to meet at...
by foo.c
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Texas property tax protest
Replies: 55
Views: 5734

Re: Texas property tax protest

I protest every year but if you bought it recently, there's some kind of automatic reset that allows you to avoid having to go in person. I can't remember all the details but it was one of the questions when I went to protest using the county website for the first time. But if you bought it for 575 ...
by foo.c
Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 343885

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

I did something similar last year. I "diversified" across leveraged Dow, S&P, QQQ, Treasuries, and long VIX as a hedge. I made a lot of return early, then the rules got me out of stocks ETFs and the long VIX bet really paid off. I did tax loss harvesting rolling from 3x to 2x to 1x ETFs to avoid wa...
by foo.c
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 343885

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

I did something similar last year. I "diversified" across leveraged Dow, S&P, QQQ, Treasuries, and long VIX as a hedge. I made a lot of return early, then the rules got me out of stocks ETFs and the long VIX bet really paid off. I did tax loss harvesting rolling from 3x to 2x to 1x ETFs to avoid was...
by foo.c
Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1298
Views: 102132

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

The way stocks have rebounded, they could be back above their moving average soon. VTI is almost there.
by foo.c
Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Advice - quit 6-figure job to do coding school?
Replies: 118
Views: 10406

Re: Need Advice - quit 6-figure job to do coding school?

public bool CanCareerSwitch()
{
return this.FinanciallyIndependent;
}
by foo.c
Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: After-tax 401(k) to Roth IRA conversion - confused about tax treatment
Replies: 29
Views: 2019

Re: After-tax 401(k) to Roth IRA conversion - confused about tax treatment

That is, I cannot specifically invest my after-tax contributions, separate from pre-tax ones. This is the way that most plans we hear about work. Only a few people, maybe 2 or 3, have told us they can invest their different accounts in different ways. I can and do. We're about to change providers t...
by foo.c
Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1298
Views: 102132

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

One thing that occurs to me is that how much can you trust the UE numbers in real time? Aren't they revised frequently?

I know the back tests show a great indicator in back testing, but how about in real time?
by foo.c
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1298
Views: 102132

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

The UER is actually 0.1% below the 12 month MA. That difference makes such a huge change in your position.

I do something similar to what you do but I am more reactive and more gradual at the same time.
by foo.c
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2251

Re: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds

This is similar to what I did last year except I did more trading and had some hedges. It worked great in January. Just about returned to my high water mark in November. Lost all my gains in December. I finished up 0.6%, which is still better than the market did, but wasn't worth the effort. I'm kin...
by foo.c
Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2694
Views: 500822

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Finished at +0.65% in the active trading account. Not sure if it was worth it.
by foo.c
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2694
Views: 500822

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I should finish the year pretty much flat. Up 0.2% as of this moment.
by foo.c
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 22998

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I stayed 100% stocks, and didn't look at my 401k statements for months, maybe years. It was easier then because I was younger and didn't have much skin in the game. The result was extremely good return on the money I put in and kept in. I wish I had been maxing out my 401k contributions back then, b...
by foo.c
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 403B versus Traditional 403B
Replies: 22
Views: 1465

Re: Roth 403B versus Traditional 403B

<<In retirement there seem to be a lot of higher marginal rate cliffs and bumps to be worried about. It's looks like you could go either way. >> That is mathematically not possible. If you disagree, show us the math. KlangFool Well it is mathematically impossible if all rates are known. The thing i...
by foo.c
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2694
Views: 500822

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Currently +15.5% in my active account. I hedged with some short ETFs 2 weeks ago which has kept the bleeding to a trickle.

In my retirement accounts I haven't calculated it but probably slightly negative. 70:30 stocks:bonds.
by foo.c
Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 150
Views: 21897

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

The vast majority of people do survive and do it without any savings to speak of.
by foo.c
Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2694
Views: 500822

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

18.7% in my active account.
by foo.c
Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 106
Views: 13261

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

TUR and MJ helped fluff my returns up a bit over the last several weeks in my active account. Sold MJ still have TUR.
by foo.c
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marijuana ETF's
Replies: 8
Views: 2317

Re: Marijuana ETF's

I sold my MJ this morning. Made a nice profit, but the valuation doesn't make sense anymore. I'm sure it could go higher, but it feels like "greater fool" territory now. JMO.
by foo.c
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 176
Views: 26662

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

A weak dollar would be a boon to domestic manufacturers.
by foo.c
Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio experiment
Replies: 19
Views: 3224

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio experiment

I opened my account with $5k about a year ago. I think it has only made 1 or 2 trades the entire time. So for me the tax implications were nil. I questioned if it is actually a robo. Maybe I don't have enough in it.
by foo.c
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence
Replies: 152
Views: 5091

Re: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence

If we start with the assumption that the person can afford either decision, does it really matter?
by foo.c
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PITI 20% to 30% lower than renting
Replies: 41
Views: 3107

Re: PITI 20% to 30% lower than renting

What do you do if rents and PITI move in tandem for the rest of your life?
by foo.c
Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PITI 20% to 30% lower than renting
Replies: 41
Views: 3107

Re: PITI 20% to 30% lower than renting

How often does this actually happen? I suspect it would have only worked in 2008-2009 in my area and maybe not even then.
by foo.c
Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401(k): Roth vs Non-Roth
Replies: 28
Views: 2049

Re: 401(k): Roth vs Non-Roth

Personally, I don't see it as a binary choice. I do both, and we have Roth IRAs and do taxable as well.
by foo.c
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 106
Views: 13261

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

I bought 100 shares of TUR in pre-market. Such a baller ...
by foo.c
Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Response from boss re: market analysis
Replies: 71
Views: 8244

Re: Rude response from boss re: market adjustment

If someone told me I should reconsider my position I would immediately start looking for another job. That sounds like they've already thought about firing me but saw just enough value to keep me around. That probably explains the stagnant pay in the first place. Not meaning that in a bad way, but i...
by foo.c
Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 20234

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I'm too lazy to document it but I bet all the different recommendations for my age now basically converged in 2008-2009.

It may not ever happen again, but it's worth noting this could be a bunch of hand waving and do what makes you comfortable.
by foo.c
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay to be in school district or move?
Replies: 20
Views: 1354

Re: Pay to be in school district or move?

We went through this same issue and first chose the out of district option. Schlepping kids around and trying to work all the scheduling out with two working parents was a hassle and we ended up moving after 2 years. Would have moved sooner if we could.
by foo.c
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 Year vs 15 Year Mortgage
Replies: 79
Views: 6909

Re: 30 Year vs 15 Year Mortgage

Klang, I guess we have different definitions of broke.

If you have no money and no income it really doesn't matter what the payment is. If you have some kind of temporary reduced income then I agree it does make a difference.
by foo.c
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 Year vs 15 Year Mortgage
Replies: 79
Views: 6909

Re: 30 Year vs 15 Year Mortgage

The term of the mortgage is irrelevant. If you have 12 months of expenses saved up, you're obviously broke after 12 months.

At least with the 15 you will have more equity if that does happen. You could potentially walk away with some tax free earnings too.
by foo.c
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $860 Million ETF Trade
Replies: 16
Views: 2347

Re: $860 Million ETF Trade

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:23 am
foo.c wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:01 am
With that much, why not just redeem for shares of the companies and save all the basis points?
That's an awful lot of work to save 3/4 bps
Is it? I assume it's all done by computer anyways.
by foo.c
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $860 Million ETF Trade
Replies: 16
Views: 2347

Re: $860 Million ETF Trade

With that much, why not just redeem for shares of the companies and save all the basis points?
by foo.c
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 Year vs 15 Year Mortgage
Replies: 79
Views: 6909

Re: 30 Year vs 15 Year Mortgage

If you can afford it and have savings set aside, then 15. I have at least a couple years worth of expenses including mortgage payments saved up otherwise I wouldn't have done it.

My credit union is offering jumbo CD's that pay higher interest than my mortgage, which is kinda neat.
by foo.c
Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 20698

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Ok, but how? I think it's more likely to sell off 50% and then rise 100% than just be flat for 10 years.
by foo.c
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k loan to pay off debt?
Replies: 45
Views: 3394

Re: 401k loan to pay off debt?

How confident are you that you can short the right asset in your 401k?

Also consider that decision gets compounded for another 20-30-40 years.
by foo.c
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2694
Views: 500822

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

My active account is up 12.5% YTD. Sold my remaining UVXY yesterday and am 100% cash there now. It's getting harder to win and I think should probably quit while I'm ahead.
by foo.c
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the first 100k really the hardest?
Replies: 160
Views: 51441

Re: Is the first 100k really the hardest?

I hit my first 100k 3 times. I think the first time was in 2008.
by foo.c
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: mega backdoor Roth -- why not stay in the roth 401(k)
Replies: 14
Views: 1626

Re: mega backdoor Roth -- why not stay in the roth 401(k)

Some plans allow in service distributions if you are over 59.5.
by foo.c
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2694
Views: 500822

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

According to personal capital:

+13.46% in my actively traded play pen
+1.38% in the Schwab robo portfolio

Everywhere else is basically flat. The play pen isn't really worth that much, it just keeps me mentally occupied and stops me from actively trading stuff with more zeroes involved.
by foo.c
Sun Jun 03, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you repay back a 401k loan
Replies: 21
Views: 2354

Re: How do you repay back a 401k loan

Most people have some fixed-income allocation in their 401(k). Rearrange the holdings so that the loan constitutes part of that. No concerns then about the stock market. I get it, but for $6000, I would just short the bank and risk nothing but my credit rating. I wouldn't even stop or reduce my cur...
by foo.c
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you repay back a 401k loan
Replies: 21
Views: 2354

Re: How do you repay back a 401k loan

I would just fix it on credit and live on rice and beans for a while until it was paid off. A 401k loan is actually a short against your 401k and therefore your investment choices (presumably the stock market). You have a decent chance of making the wrong decision there with permanent consequences. ...
by foo.c
Sat Jun 02, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2694
Views: 500822

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

My active account is up 12.91% as of Friday according to personal capital. Had a really good January, and then doubled my original investment in UVXY when the VIX spiked. Since then my success has been trending down, but I made around 3% back Friday which helped the numbers a lot.
by foo.c
Sat May 19, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 756
Views: 64079

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

3) You can get all of those things when you do Roth conversion of your Trad. 401K at lower tax rate. I don't give a flip about the rate. Let's say I have 1.5 million in my R401k and you have 1.5 in your T401k. It costs me 0 to stuff that into a RIRA, and it costs you something like 500k (I didn't d...