Search found 770 matches

by ThrustVectoring
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Critique this leveraged portfolio
Replies: 80
Views: 5330

Re: Critique this leveraged portfolio

You're paying a lot more for leverage than you should need to spend. Put 60% of your portfolio in straight equities instead of 30% in 2x levered equities, and purchase Treasury futures contracts for leverage. These sorts of futures contracts are what the 2x daily ETFs are using anyhow, they're just...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Critique this leveraged portfolio
Replies: 80
Views: 5330

Re: Critique this leveraged portfolio

You're paying a lot more for leverage than you should need to spend. Put 60% of your portfolio in straight equities instead of 30% in 2x levered equities, and purchase Treasury futures contracts for leverage. These sorts of futures contracts are what the 2x daily ETFs are using anyhow, they're just ...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company repurchases its shares, does the company become less valuable?
Replies: 61
Views: 4670

Re: When a company repurchases its shares, does the company become less valuable?

It seems obvious that a share buyback should not affect the value of the underlying company since the action can be reversed at any given time by selling the treasury shares on the open market. Do you mean the value per-share or the total value of the company, here? You have to get different answer...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company repurchases its shares, does the company become less valuable?
Replies: 61
Views: 4670

Re: When a company repurchases its shares, does the company become less valuable?

Why would the equity of Microsoft drop when it buys Microsoft shares, but not when it buys Apple shares? I'm beginning to think you don't know what you're talking about. Shareholder equity is a liability to external shareholders. Microsoft is obligated to share any cash dividends or M&A cash-out on...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.
Replies: 41
Views: 3006

Re: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.

I've heard 20% bonds as a better approach than 100% equities. The argument is that though the return has been only slightly less, but volatility was much less. Rebalancing was included, which was for the stability. Think of having bonds as ballast in the bottom of a ship. A ship rocks less with som...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does bond yield mean?
Replies: 10
Views: 1253

Re: What does bond yield mean?

There's two components to bond returns: coupon yield, and capital appreciation. A $100 face-value bond does not necessarily trade at $100. If interest rates have gone up, the bond needs to sell for less than face-value in order to be competitive; similarly, if rates have fallen, it'll trade above fa...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "Exactly" Does Selling Order Flow Mean?
Replies: 31
Views: 3006

Re: What "Exactly" Does Selling Order Flow Mean?

The best explanation of payment for order flow I've seen here: https://www.kalzumeus.com/2019/6/26/how-brokerages-make-money/ Tl;dr - it's between about 1 and 6 percent of a brokerage's income, pretty much a footnote. Payment for order flow exists because Goldman Sachs et al have an information edge...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.
Replies: 41
Views: 3006

Re: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.

A 5-10% difference in asset allocation shouldn't make a big difference in how well your portfolio does. When you're near an optimal point, the slopes involved are pretty shallow, so the exact percentages involved aren't really a big deal. Like, the US/International split is usually recommended at 60...
by ThrustVectoring
Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it
Replies: 23
Views: 4133

Re: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it

Between buying 5% of your portfolio in intrinsic option value and missing out on a roughly 2% dividend yield, you're going up against a 7% CAGR headwind in flat and bull markets. Considering that stocks only have something like a 7% real return, this is a huge deal.
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?
Replies: 29
Views: 3016

Re: 50 Year US Treasury Bond - who is taker?

I have seen posts mentioning some would like to buy longer duration bond if US Treasury issue bonds longer than 30 year. Your wish might come true https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/us-treasury-says-it-is-gearing-up-to-issue-a-50-year-bond.html . Are you going to buy? The Treasury is “exploring” poten...
by ThrustVectoring
Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would someone buy a currency pair future when they could just buy the currency pair directlly?
Replies: 9
Views: 1148

Re: Why would someone buy a currency pair future when they could just buy the currency pair directlly?

If you have euros and want dollars in six months, you have two options: buy the currency pair future and a six-month German bill, or sell your euros today and buy a six-month Treasury bill. There's an arbitrage here between interest rates and the future rate ("covered interest rate parity") , but t...
by ThrustVectoring
Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would someone buy a currency pair future when they could just buy the currency pair directlly?
Replies: 9
Views: 1148

Re: Why would someone buy a currency pair future when they could just buy the currency pair directlly?

If you have euros and want dollars in six months, you have two options: buy the currency pair future and a six-month German bill, or sell your euros today and buy a six-month Treasury bill. There's an arbitrage here between interest rates and the future rate ("covered interest rate parity"), but tha...
by ThrustVectoring
Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures
Replies: 136
Views: 17785

Re: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures

In regards to Eurodollars, this is the response I got from Eric Hickman at Kessler: "I have done a lot of back-testing work with these shorter instruments, not trying to eliminate the negative carry, but to possibly capture more movement. The negative carry cannot be eliminated because what you don...
by ThrustVectoring
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs or investment property?
Replies: 70
Views: 5739

Re: REITs or investment property?

Owner-occupied housing is heavily subsidized, so the real estate investment I personally like is occupying one unit in a duplex, triplex, or quadplex. It still has a hell of a lot of caveats to it - idiosyncratic risk from bad tenants, labor costs for DIYing repairs and managing things, and the corr...
by ThrustVectoring
Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures
Replies: 136
Views: 17785

Re: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures

Proposed Portfolio 66% Total US Stock Market 29% Total International Stock Market 5% cash, held to meet margin requirements for futures 285% 2-year Treasury Futures (\ZT) 385% sum (3.8x leverage) That's probably not using enough leverage and interest rate exposure for an aggressive portfolio. Futur...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is real estate dead as a diversifier?
Replies: 52
Views: 6472

Re: is real estate dead as a diversifier?

Real estate is pretty complicated for a variety of reasons. First of all, housing prices are based off the net present value of future rents. As such, they behave like bonds to some extent - as interest rates fall, houses become more valuable because the value of a month's rent thirty years hence ha...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uncle Fred’s Second Coin – The Case for Leveraged Bonds
Replies: 133
Views: 9365

Re: Uncle Fred’s Second Coin – The Case for Leveraged Bonds

It might just be a nomenclature thing then. Your position only makes money if rates drop. To me, that's the ultimate level in speculation and market timing. It's a bet on future rate movement; if they don't drop enough, you lose money. If they drop a little, stay the same, or go up, you lose money....
by ThrustVectoring
Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uncle Fred’s Second Coin – The Case for Leveraged Bonds
Replies: 133
Views: 9365

Re: Uncle Fred’s Second Coin – The Case for Leveraged Bonds

Does the strategy require leveraging individual or packaged zero coupon bonds? I ask because if you use futures, you don't receive the dividends right? And if dividends represent the bulk of a bond funds returns, leveraging with futures make sense there right? The treasury futures market is very th...
by ThrustVectoring
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location: bonds belong in taxable
Replies: 70
Views: 8489

Re: Asset location: bonds belong in taxable

I always find these sorts of return-based arguments for asset allocation to be extremely suspicious. You're baking in return assumptions into your model - a dollar in stocks is assumed to be worth more at retirement than a dollar in bonds. Why, then, are you buying bonds anywhere ? A better plan is ...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 11601

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

What happens to the people with policies from GE if they declare bankruptcy, especially those that are actively making claims? Any chance they would end up getting bailed out a la GM? There's a Guaranty Association that covers policies up to certain region-specific limits when issuers go bankrupt. ...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 11601

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

There are so many laws about insider trading and other things involved with knowledge about how a stock could go. How could it be legal for a company to take a short position and then publish information that might make the stock tank? It's not insider trading if they did not use material non-publi...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 11601

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

There are so many laws about insider trading and other things involved with knowledge about how a stock could go. How could it be legal for a company to take a short position and then publish information that might make the stock tank? Insider trading isn't about having an unfair advantage in the m...
by ThrustVectoring
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 920
Views: 65654

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

the only role i would see for long term nominal treasuries is liability matching. i.e. if one somehow had long term nominal liabilities (a fixed rate mortgage?) or spending needs (hard to think of what that might be?) Fixed rate mortgages tend to be above long-term bond rates, so typically you're b...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 920
Views: 65654

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

the only role i would see for long term nominal treasuries is liability matching. i.e. if one somehow had long term nominal liabilities (a fixed rate mortgage?) or spending needs (hard to think of what that might be?) Fixed rate mortgages tend to be above long-term bond rates, so typically you're b...
by ThrustVectoring
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 920
Views: 65654

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

If anything, I'd personally use TIPS instead of nominal bonds here for long-term bonds. 30 years is a long time, and any bout of unexpected inflation will do nasty things to long-term treasuries. TIPS, on the other hand, will get inflation adjustments, and at expected inflation levels will do as wel...
by ThrustVectoring
Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merril Edge Bond screener and purchasing process is awful
Replies: 2
Views: 296

Re: Merril Edge Bond screener and purchasing process is awful

I don't recommend buying individual bonds on the secondary market anyhow. Either use a bond fund for the liquidity, or get fixed income exposure through direct purchase of treasuries (TIPS in particular) or bank CDs (better yield because institutional players don't bid up the prices).
by ThrustVectoring
Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5640

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

Isn't there a case to be made to construct a portfolio that has a higher yield than what index funds pay? VTSAX pays only 1.84%. If I wanted an annual income of $80,000 I'd need $4.2 million in a portfolio yielding 1.9%. But you'd only need $842,105 from a portfolio yielding 9.5%. Of course, you'd ...
by ThrustVectoring
Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining your asset allocation using Funded Ratio - Part 2 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 14
Views: 3180

Re: Determining your asset allocation using Funded Ratio - Part 2 of Funded Ratio series

A too high stock allocation would likely give you a higher average FR, but also more results where FR <1.00 - Results with a wider dispersion. Note that a higher average FR necessarily means that it takes a more exceptional variation in order to drive the FR below 1.00. This can more than offset th...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 25% SP 500 (or VT) and 75% TIPS Bonds--Not Bond Fund.
Replies: 21
Views: 2410

Re: 25% SP 500 (or VT) and 75% TIPS Bonds--Not Bond Fund.

Seems like a relatively low amount of stock, but with a 40x capital-to-expenses ratio you have a ton of flexibility on asset allocation. Also funding things 30 years out with fixed income is excessive in any case IMO. As a minimum amount of stock, I'd use the capital ratio implied by the Trinity Stu...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling put options - interest paid
Replies: 16
Views: 1356

Re: Selling put options - interest paid

A put option is another way to enter an out of the money limit order. You decide that you would like to buy this stock, if it falls by a certain amount. Unlike a limit order, you collect a small premium for writing the order. Ralph They are quite different situations. XYZ trades at $50 A enters a l...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling put options - interest paid
Replies: 16
Views: 1356

Re: Selling put options - interest paid

When you sell an option, you immediately get the premium in cash and have an ongoing liability to fulfill the contract. The broker will ensure that your account maintains enough value in case they need to liquidate things in order to fulfill the liabilities you have. This exchange of cash-for-assets...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Instead of bonds; why not 100% Low Vol?
Replies: 8
Views: 2395

Re: Instead of bonds; why not 100% Low Vol?

So, even assuming that 100% low volatility has had about the same risk and return as 70/30, what is the point? Is it just some kind of tour-de-force to show that you can do without bonds? Historically though you have had the same risk but higher returns. Larry did an article a while back on this (h...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 5835

Re: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks

But there are some countervailing ones. For example that liquidations of stock by retirees might pick up eventually after not being so high early in their retirement. And, it doesn't necessarily take a large % of holders to sell something to lower the market clearing price substantially. Would you ...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?
Replies: 39
Views: 3474

Re: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?

The two scenarios are quantitatively different. While they're the same now, they have differing personal financial risks. For example, suppose you want to take FMLA leave to care for a newborn. This is twelve weeks unpaid, or roughly a quarter of your annual salary in missed income. The person with ...
by ThrustVectoring
Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA : willingness, ability, need
Replies: 24
Views: 2243

Re: AA : willingness, ability, need

The need part is pretty straightforward to me: taking on equity risk earns a premium, and you need money. All the "need" portion says - to me at least - is that you should take on as much equity risk as you can afford to, given your future cash flow needs and emotional fortitude. With a long enough...
by ThrustVectoring
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Instead of bonds; why not 100% Low Vol?
Replies: 8
Views: 2395

Re: Instead of bonds; why not 100% Low Vol?

The lack of correlation between low volatility or bet-against-beta strategies tends to disappear during times of crisis (eg, 2008). The actual amount of allocation or leverage you can use is less than what the data from normal periods suggests, and then you're left holding a bunch of lower-yielding ...
by ThrustVectoring
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA : willingness, ability, need
Replies: 24
Views: 2243

Re: AA : willingness, ability, need

The need part is pretty straightforward to me: taking on equity risk earns a premium, and you need money. All the "need" portion says - to me at least - is that you should take on as much equity risk as you can afford to, given your future cash flow needs and emotional fortitude. With a long enough ...
by ThrustVectoring
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 5500

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

What's the point of negative interest bonds? Who invests in this stuff? Institutions who wants to keep their money safe. If you have 10 million Euros you are not willing to risk, what are your alternatives? ... Buy foreign denominated debt: The cost to hedge the currency fluctuations exceeds the in...
by ThrustVectoring
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 204
Views: 22661

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

TIPS are currently priced like the treasury's 2% inflation target will consistently get undershot like they've been doing under the current economic policy. This can easily change - the undershoot is because the treasury is unwilling to take into account previous undershooting into future inflation ...
by ThrustVectoring
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying an investment property while renting an apartment?
Replies: 24
Views: 2108

Re: Buying an investment property while renting an apartment?

Generally speaking you're better off buying the house you live in - there's significant tax and mortgage underwriting advantages for doing so. For one thing, the rent you pay and the rental income you collect do not offset. If you collect $1500/mo in rent and pay $1500/mo in rent, you have to pay in...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue May 28, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 14358

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

While I understand the theoretical argument, from a practical perspective is it possible to by an inflation indexed SPIA? From comments I’ve read on this forum I thought not but would be glad to be pointed in the right direction. I bought an annuity that has a 2% COLA a couple of months ago. The CO...
by ThrustVectoring
Wed May 22, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not non traded REIT such as yield tree?
Replies: 25
Views: 2134

Re: Why not non traded REIT such as yield tree?

Okay, yield tree has been blasting advertisements on my computers and iphones and youtube videos. As a general rule, any investment that gets aggressively pushed at you through paid channels (salespeople, advertising, commission-based "advisers", etc) is a poor choice to invest in. Before fees, the...
by ThrustVectoring
Wed May 22, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 151
Views: 16888

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

So one of the under-appreciated things about optimization in general is that when you're near a maximum, the landscape is pretty flat. Small changes make relatively little difference. If you're not taking "enough" risk, or having "too little" international equity, or have less than 5% of your assets...
by ThrustVectoring
Wed May 22, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 57
Views: 6230

Re: Any option traders?

You're example isn't really a naked put because it's secured by the cash from bond. Naked put usually implies no cash backing the contract that requires you to buy the stock potentially. A covered Call and owning stock is like a cash secured put. Not a naked put. It's naked put writing as opposed t...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue May 21, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delaying social security = harming nest egg?
Replies: 74
Views: 6904

Re: Delaying social security = harming nest egg?

Delaying social security is equivalent to annuitizing a portion of your retirement fund. This has the effect of decreasing your expected inheritance if you die before the actuarial tables predict, and increasing your expected inheritance if you live longer. Overall, this really depends on how health...
by ThrustVectoring
Fri May 17, 2019 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beyond Total Bond Market - Anyone ?
Replies: 47
Views: 4401

Re: Bonds beyond Total Bond Market - Anyone ?

Just had a portfolio review with a firm and they recommend "diversification" of Total Bond Market with TIPS, Floats, High Yield, etc.... A "portfolio review" is an euphemistic term for a sales pitch, usually. They get paid when they convince you to move investments into their products or use some p...
by ThrustVectoring
Thu May 16, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 76
Views: 8828

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

Does your grandmother intend to leave significant amounts of money to charity? If so, donating appreciated securities to a donor-advised fund or directly to charities can be a fantastic way to manage exposure while achieving charitable goals. Alternatively, you can just manually market-cap weight th...
by ThrustVectoring
Tue May 14, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should one diversify into annuities and not bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 2280

Re: Should one diversify into annuities and not bonds?

There's two big factors for annuities that you missed: 1. The mortality credits means that these contracts do not benefit your heirs or any charities in your estate. You might care a lot about this, and if so annuities are a poor choice. 2. Annuity contracts and their proceeds are often afforded bet...
by ThrustVectoring
Sun May 12, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location
Replies: 11
Views: 1953

Re: Asset Location

If you do have a taxable account (many do not), do not despair about having to sell in taxable to get needed money. Have an emergency fund. If your needs exceed the emergency fund, sell stocks in taxable and then sell bonds and buy stocks in tax-deferred accounts. That way, you are actually selling...
by ThrustVectoring
Fri May 10, 2019 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 79
Views: 9738

Re: Any conservative young investors?

28 living in a medium-high COL area. I'm currently at 80/20 but I have been sorely tempted to just go all-in with one of Vanguard's balanced funds at 60/40. My reasoning is that I don't necessarily need to take the risk. I have a 60% savings rate on a mid-six-figure income and based on historical r...