Search found 234 matches

by Lauretta
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about investing abroad
Replies: 26
Views: 1896

Re: Concerns about investing abroad

Thesaints wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:40 am
Repayment of bonds in a different currency is classified as “default”.
Please see e.g. this article on repayment of bonds in francs rather than euros.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... nce-dearly
by Lauretta
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about investing abroad
Replies: 26
Views: 1896

Re: Concerns about investing abroad

I am not sure what the point of your second point is (so to speak). Of course currency risk occurs if the currency of the underlying asset is different from one's own currency. The accounting currency of the fund is irrelevant. My point was that a eurozone investor, if they want to avoid currency r...
by Lauretta
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about investing abroad
Replies: 26
Views: 1896

Re: Concerns about investing abroad

Repayment of bonds in a different currency is classified as “default”. Also, investments diversification has not much to do with currency risk. The point is that the currency risk is only between the investor’s own curremcy and the currency of negotiation of the uderlying investment, not the curren...
by Lauretta
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about investing abroad
Replies: 26
Views: 1896

Re: Concerns about investing abroad

Repayment of bonds in a different currency is classified as “default”. Also, investments diversification has not much to do with currency risk. The point is that the currency risk is only between the investor’s own curremcy and the currency of negotiation of the uderlying investment, not the curren...
by Lauretta
Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about investing abroad
Replies: 26
Views: 1896

Re: Concerns about investing abroad

I definitely prefer investing through the US intead of my local country (France) for two reasons: - I do not believe in the sustainablity of the EUR over the long term Whether you invest in funds in the US or France is irrelevant for this effect. If you buy a fund in France which holds US stocks, a...
by Lauretta
Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about investing abroad
Replies: 26
Views: 1896

Re: Concerns about investing abroad

Hi, interesting point about the end of the eurozone; I sometimes wonder about that mysef - however, don't you think if that were to happen it would be a gradual process and you would see it coming? For example if Le Pen had come to power she would not have been able to revert to the franc overnight....
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2372

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

... Companies Accepting Bitcoin ... https://s8.postimg.org/xx2jklbdx/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-12-10_a_la_s_1.47.46_PM.png I thought I would do a reality check on the idea that Paypal "accepts BItcoins." After all, Subway and many places do accept PayPal. Can I load bitcoin into my PayPal account an...
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2372

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

I think bubbles and crashes are like building Jenga towers, or watching dirt being piled onto a huge mound, or snow piling up to the point of avalanche. Once it gets to the point where tiny things have the possibility of snowballing, the tiny thing that starts the avalanche could occur anywhere or ...
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2372

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

F150HD wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:27 pm
Amazon.com offers a 5% discount for any purchase made with Bitcoin.[/i]
Is this a parody or is it true? I understand Amazon does not accept Bitcoin!
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2372

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Thesaints wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:48 am
I’m pretty sure available data shows that crashes always happen before close of market of 12/31 on any given year.
That sounds quite a safe bet to make :wink: :happy
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2372

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

There was the well established "January effect" - the outperformance of small cap stocks was concentrated in January. This was tied to how portfolio managers work and also to tax loss selling (at the end of the previous year, thus creating bargains for investors in January). Thanks for the interest...
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2372

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Watty wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:09 am
People brains are wired to see patterns where there is none.

This is why we see things in the shapes of clouds and inkblots.
Thanks for your answer :happy - I like the clouds and inkblots simile
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2372

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

so your plan is to sell everything else and go all in until then? Not at all, because - as I wrote in the OP - this argument doesn't make sense to me. I have 0% in Bitcoin at present, and the most I would ever consider putting in Bitcoin is 0,5% of my liquid assets - about 0,3% of my total assets. ...
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2372

likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Someone I know (who seems to have been pretty succesful in money management) pointed out the following, when asked about Bitcoin: 'There are certain times in the year: Tulips – first week of September 1637 Wall Street 1929 - September 3rd Gold 1980 - January 21st UK Tech mania 1999 - December 31st U...
by Lauretta
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1st draft of my portfolio to evaluation [feedback please] [Europe]
Replies: 31
Views: 1379

Re: 2nd draft of my portfolio to evaluation [feedback please] [Europe]

By holding UK, US, EU ex-UK, Japan, Pacific ex-Japan, ordinary bonds and index-linked bonds funds separately I can shave some 0.12% or so (several hundred GBP) from my annual management charge compared to holding an all-in-one fund. I can relate to that; I also went for several ETFs as they are che...
by Lauretta
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4816

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

The following point applies both to this specific article on bitcoin, and to the rest of the work my Mr Swedroe. I was puzzled to read that at BAM they 'pride themselves' on giving only advice 'based on evidence from peer-reviewed academic journals'. (the link provided by Swedroe at the end of his a...
by Lauretta
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Usi-Tech a good platform to invest (or speculate ;-) ) in bitcoin?
Replies: 0
Views: 123

Is Usi-Tech a good platform to invest (or speculate ;-) ) in bitcoin?

A friend mentioned a website called Usi-Tech to invest in bitcoin. Does anyone know it? I am a beginner in bitcoin but as far as I understand what they do at Usi-Tech seems different than simply allowing you to buy bitcoin: apparently you invest into an account in which they do things like arbitrage...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 31
Views: 3115

Re: How to learn about financial statement analysis?

ah ok. I am still a bit puzzled about this because on the one hand people who here who know a lot about financial statements say they don't seem to help in investing; on the other the quants by just picking stocks with low PE ratios (or price to cash flow) - and with ROE+operating margins above som...
by Lauretta
Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 31
Views: 3115

Re: How to learn about financial statement analysis?

My education and career is in accounting and finance, but I never use financial statement analysis in investing. Not only do you have to understand basic accounting and finance, but you have to understand the peculiarities of the company and the industry. Just looking at a company financial stateme...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 31
Views: 3115

Re: How to learn about financial statement analysis?

I am becoming interested in financial statements - it's actually quite fun when you begin to see how things fit together within a statement or across different statements. I remember when I was at university people thought that accountancy is really boring, but it doesn't seem to be that way to me ...
by Lauretta
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 31
Views: 3115

Re: How to learn about financial statement analysis?

I learned it in business school. Was really interested in personal finance previously but as an indexer I never need to understand a balance sheet, for example. Are you looking to do fundamental analysis like Ben Graham? If so, I hear good things about the book Securities Analysis but that might be...
by Lauretta
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 31
Views: 3115

Re: How to learn about financial statement analysis?

If your interested, accounting is fun. Otherwise, not so much. thanks :-) yes I remember, at least in the UK, everyone thought it was boring, but I actually find it very interesting now that I am finding out about it! I really like value investing-it resonates with me- and to get those valuation ra...
by Lauretta
Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 31
Views: 3115

How to learn about financial statement analysis?

I am becoming interested in financial statements - it's actually quite fun when you begin to see how things fit together within a statement or across different statements. I remember when I was at university people thought that accountancy is really boring, but it doesn't seem to be that way to me n...
by Lauretta
Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

The currency forward rate is not a forecast of future exchange rates. It is the cost of locking in a future exchange rate now. It is a poor predictor of future exchange rates (a guess that they will not change performs better). I've just come across this article, in which the things that puzzled me...
by Lauretta
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

The currency forward rate is not a forecast of future exchange rates. It is the cost of locking in a future exchange rate now. It is a poor predictor of future exchange rates (a guess that they will not change performs better). I've just come across this article, in which the things that puzzled me...
by Lauretta
Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1650

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

I am very confused. Sorry to confuse you - All I was trying to say was that: book value +/- adjustments = assets I would take the opposite side if book value is important. It can be manipulated. For some industries, like banking, it is a important measure. For others it less important. The predicti...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1650

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

Thanks nedsaid! This has given me the opportunity to look up some balance sheets - something I am begining to teach mysef to read. Please excuse me if I say something silly - I am a complete beginner in this - I just wanted to confirm one thing: are 'book value' and 'stockholders equity' the same? ...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1650

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

Thanks nedsaid! This has given me the opportunity to look up some balance sheets - something I am begining to teach mysef to read. Please excuse me if I say something silly - I am a complete beginner in this - I just wanted to confirm one thing: are 'book value' and 'stockholders equity' the same? ...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1650

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

The underlying reason for the exclusion is not something nefarious but simply because the financial statements of banks, other financial firms, utilities, and "industrial" (i.e. everyone else) companies simply look different from one another. And key for the academic researchers using Compustat is ...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1650

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

I have read a working paper (not available on the web unfortunately) by AlphaArchitect in which they back-tested different value metrics (FCF/TEV, EBIT/TEV, P/E, B/M) to see which works better, and they excluded financials in their tests. I read a piece by a value manager in Europe who also thinks ...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1650

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

It's mostly a matter of convention. The traditional academic literature on the value factor does the book-to-market sort—or other metrics—over the market minus financials and utilities. So no financials included on either side (high or low value). The thinking is that particularly with financials t...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1650

Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

I have read a working paper (not available on the web unfortunately) by AlphaArchitect in which they back-tested different value metrics (FCF/TEV, EBIT/TEV, P/E, B/M) to see which works better, and they excluded financials in their tests. I read a piece by a value manager in Europe who also thinks f...
by Lauretta
Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?
Replies: 25
Views: 1806

Re: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?

I've talked to a few money managers in Europe whilst building my AA and learning about finance. One of them suggests having a significant allocation in EM small caps (besides EM large caps) in her model portfolios - her motivation being that the sectors contribution in EM large and EM small are qui...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone hold cash?
Replies: 58
Views: 6036

Re: Does anyone hold cash?

I hold about 30% of my net worth in cash (and ~35% in stocks and ~35% in rental property).
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?
Replies: 25
Views: 1806

Re: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?

Since I am selling shares of DGS this week, I should post that EVERYBODY should be buying shares of EM small caps and LOTS of them. :) :D :D lol. Thinking of it I realise that I should perhaps be less naive when reading about the markets. One of the articles that I found most convincing on EM was b...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?
Replies: 25
Views: 1806

Re: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?

Lauretta, I would caution against what could be called "icing on the icing on the cake." That is to says... Emerging markets... but why not Emerging markets small-caps ? But why not Emerging markets small-cap value? ? But why not Emerging markets small-cap value with quality, profitability, momentu...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?
Replies: 25
Views: 1806

Re: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?

some people think the rally has just begun, see e.g.: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-22/emerging-markets-may-be-due-for-their-comeback So that was published on 9/22. Do you know that DGS dropped almost 3% on 9/25 and it was not related to going ex-dividend the next day? This looks ...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?
Replies: 25
Views: 1806

Re: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?

Definitely yes and for a long time now. I have used EWX and DGS, but currently only hold DGS. I must say that EM small-caps have been pretty bad until the past 15 months. If you had invested equal amounts of money into Total US Bond (VBTLX) and DGS at the end of 2007 about 10 years go and reinveste...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?
Replies: 25
Views: 1806

Re: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?

I find Swedroe's (?) idea of increasing risk within equities (more small, value, emerging) while keeping total equity AA limited to maintain expected return while minimizing tail risk persuasive. I like that idea a lot too, it really resonates with me. Did Swedroe write on this? If you've got a ref...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?
Replies: 25
Views: 1806

Re: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?

If that's included in VSS, then yes I am as I use 90/10 VEU/VSS to build VXUS. Yes, it looks like it has 20% EM small caps, so that the VXUS you built has 2% in them. That's quite interesting because a quick check to world small cap ETFs available in Europe, like the SPDR, shows that they have much...
by Lauretta
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?
Replies: 25
Views: 1806

Are you investing in Emerging Market small caps?

I've talked to a few money managers in Europe whilst building my AA and learning about finance. One of them suggests having a significant allocation in EM small caps (besides EM large caps) in her model portfolios - her motivation being that the sectors contribution in EM large and EM small are quit...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

Life in the US is not that great either. After expected inflation our government bonds are yielding something close to zero. Ah ok, I thought that it was a lot easier for you over there... Though yes, lik eyou say one has to consider inflation (and taxes). I saw a Tweet by Jim O'Shaughnessy the oth...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

ok, I'll try to analyse the emotions that got me here (this post however started more as a theoretical question on something that puzzled me - that's why I posted it in this General section). With due respect I must say once again that the problem I have with bonds in the EU is not that they don't ...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

[ Technically you are not hedging and this is an important point. Hedges are things that move in the opposite direction of the market. I understood that high quality bonds could be considered as a hedge to stocks, as they tend to appreciate when stocks fall, particularly the long term ones, so that...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

You have to trade off your upside to your downside. Consider how we got here: - you didn't (in an earlier thread) want to own bonds (much or perhaps even any?) - you were (sort of) persuaded to own bonds for the usual reasons we suggest it here - now you don't think bonds yield enough. So you want ...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

I would think long bonds are the way to go. Maybe even individual ones. One last question - I think the answer to your question is the differential between inflation rates between the EU and US. Nominal rates would be different but real rates should be closer. However, are junkie are EU junk bonds?...
by Lauretta
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

The currency forward rate is not a forecast of future exchange rates. It is the cost of locking in a future exchange rate now. It is a poor predictor of future exchange rates (a guess that they will not change performs better). Then, it's probably rational for a EU investor to buy US bonds (without...
by Lauretta
Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

Am I right in deducing that this implies that the market is actually predicting that the Euro will appreaciate against the Dollar (since I understand that what you are saying is that a EU investing in USD has to pay to secure today's exchange rates in the future) - please also see the post I've jus...
by Lauretta
Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3463

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

The currency forward rate is not a forecast of future exchange rates. It is the cost of locking in a future exchange rate now. It is a poor predictor of future exchange rates (a guess that they will not change performs better). Then, it's probably rational for a EU investor to buy US bonds (without...
by Lauretta
Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First simple portfolio [Italy]
Replies: 12
Views: 826

Re: First simple portfolio [Italy]

Greetings. Your allocation and chosen etfs are fine. As already mentioned, you overweight em, 65/35 is actually gdp allocation. I do not disaggre, since em gas lower valuations andvis supposed to perform a bit better in the intermediate term, but it is more risky. The usual fund of choice for em is...