Search found 871 matches

by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.
Replies: 13
Views: 677

Re: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.

value is trickier, lots of upside potential from its current ultra-cheap valuations, but its struggling companies are more vulnerable when the economy takes a downturn. yep I know, I have quite a bit in value and it's done terribly. Bought some more last March which has gone up a lot since, but ove...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

Another thing about feelings is that they can be controlled by means other than letting them dictate how you invest. There are also some feelings that can't be fixed no matter now you invest. That's quite a good point actually. In fact I am taking a coursera course on emotions right now (just out o...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

... So from a wisdom, calculating point of view, having more than 60% of one's liquid wealth in stocks (vs bonds or cash) seems like a good decision, at least for the long term. But emotionally if I were to lose say 1M$ (at least as a paper loss) from a drawdown in stocks, I would feel terrible. So...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

And bonds are worse than in the US here in Europe where I live. This is the second time I've seen you write that, presumably as a reason for adding more stocks. But fear not, it's not correct. Because of arbitrage, the real return on bonds should be very similar throughout the entire world. The low...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.
Replies: 13
Views: 677

Re: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.

I have quite a big sum to invest in the coming weeks and I read some articles in favour of quality factor investing at this time of coronavirus crisis. I also listened to an interview by Ray Dalio; he said that stocks are a good investment (as opposed to bonds) but that there will be a huge differe...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.
Replies: 13
Views: 677

Re: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.

The problem seems to me to lie in how you define "Quality." There are as many ways to define it as there are companies putting together seductive packages for investors, many of whom are too naive to look under the hood or are prevented from doing it by the limited amount of information the ETF pro...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

The essence of this whole thing is for the investor to understand the consequences of what their asset allocation is and then decide what they want. The investor should do this instead of reading that someone says this thing is risky and that thing is risky. But understanding consequences takes som...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Looking for a Quality factor ETF for European investors
Replies: 4
Views: 285

Re: Looking for a Quality factor ETF for European investors

search on M*.co.uk gives: https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/screener/etf.aspx#?filtersSelectedValue=%7B%22term%22:%22quality%22%7D&page=1&sortField=legalName&sortOrder=asc Thank you! for some reason the search did not work for me earlier - probably don't have a cool head at this time and had done so...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

And bonds are worse than in the US here in Europe where I live. This is the second time I've seen you write that, presumably as a reason for adding more stocks. But fear not, it's not correct. Because of arbitrage, the real return on bonds should be very similar throughout the entire world. The low...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

...my typical yearly expenses are between 1% and 2% of my accumulated assets... ...I can live from rental income... ...Quite a lot of my assets are in rental properties So you have the ability to be more aggressive and go with a 75/25 stock/bond portfolio, but maybe not the willingness nor the need...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Looking for a Quality factor ETF for European investors
Replies: 4
Views: 285

Re: Looking for a Quality factor ETF for European investors

Valuethinker wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:57 am
It might be worth mentioning that?
you already have :sharebeer
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.
Replies: 13
Views: 677

Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.

I have quite a big sum to invest in the coming weeks and I read some articles in favour of quality factor investing at this time of coronavirus crisis. I also listened to an interview by Ray Dalio; he said that stocks are a good investment (as opposed to bonds) but that there will be a huge differen...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Looking for a Quality factor ETF for European investors
Replies: 4
Views: 285

Looking for a Quality factor ETF for European investors

I have read several reports saying that quality companies (strong balance sheets etc) should fare better in this period, or at least carry less risk.
Do you know a world or various regional ETFs investing in MSCI quality factor?
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

I am about to retire (or at least take a long sabbatical) and my typical yearly expenses are between 1% and 2% of my accumulated assets (this might sound quite impressive but it's also because I don't really need to spend that much :wink: ) Quite a lot of my assets are in rental properties, but I a...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

I am about to retire (or at least take a long sabbatical) and my typical yearly expenses are between 1% and 2% of my accumulated assets (this might sound quite impressive but it's also because I don't really need to spend that much :wink: ) Quite a lot of my assets are in rental properties, but I am...
by Lauretta
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Yes US bonds have higher yields but it's not generally recommended to invest in bonds denominated in a foreign currency because of currency risk. Correct. Lauretta, you may be interested in reading the thread a started a while back asking a very similar question as yours. It starts here: https://ww...
by Lauretta
Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

I am not an expert, but perhaps it makes sense (and perhaps low-cost options exist) to invest in US bonds even though you are in Europe. It might be a better way for you to address your risk tolerance. Yes US bonds have higher yields but it's not generally recommended to invest in bonds denominated...
by Lauretta
Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Second, the big question is, what is it that makes it more comfortable for you? That's the real point that people here have been trying to get at. Well it feels confortable because if I put all the money in on a preset day, it might be on a peak. Instead I invest when the market is down (for exampl...
by Lauretta
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Second, the big question is, what is it that makes it more comfortable for you? That's the real point that people here have been trying to get at. Well it feels confortable because if I put all the money in on a preset day, it might be on a peak. Instead I invest when the market is down (for exampl...
by Lauretta
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

But that "benefit" of DCA keeps popping up! well according to this article there is a real benefit, i.e. it limits maximal drawdown. This is important to me as I have more than enough, I am more interested in mitigating the risk of a big drawdown than in maximising my profits https://blog.thinknewf...
by Lauretta
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Second, the big question is, what is it that makes it more comfortable for you? That's the real point that people here have been trying to get at. Well it feels confortable because if I put all the money in on a preset day, it might be on a peak. Instead I invest when the market is down (for exampl...
by Lauretta
Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1208

Re: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?

rascott wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:37 pm
Buying cheap stocks hasn't worked for 15+ years.

Not really clear why it will work in the next few decades either.
I think it will work precisely because it has not worked for 15+ years.
by Lauretta
Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Love these threads. "I understand that DCA doesn't make any sense and is mathematically worse than lump sum investing. Should I do it anyway?" I wonder who said that? You are probably in the wrong thread, perhaps you can direct me to the thread you refer to? That does not seem a very intelligent st...
by Lauretta
Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Love these threads. "I understand that DCA doesn't make any sense and is mathematically worse than lump sum investing. Should I do it anyway?" I wonder who said that? You are probably in the wrong thread, perhaps you can direct me to the thread you refer to? That does not seem a very intelligent st...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Love these threads. "I understand that DCA doesn't make any sense and is mathematically worse than lump sum investing. Should I do it anyway?" I wonder who said that? You are probably in the wrong thread, perhaps you can direct me to the thread you refer to? That does not seem a very intelligent st...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Japanese investors who lump summed in December 1989 are still regretting their decision. The jury is still out on how US investors who lump sum in June of 2020 will feel in a few decades. It's unhelpful in my opinion to reference the bubble resulting in the highest CAPE in modern history as an anal...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

marcopolo wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:01 pm

So, if you are sure (how could you be?), that DCA is a good bet in the short term, I am not sure how investment horizon cones into play at all?
exactly. If at the end of DCA you come up on top relative to LSI, then no matter what the horizon you' ll always be on top (and viceversa)
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

I think the most reasonable solution is to lump sum and then invest more money as you earn it going forward. I'am either leaving my job or taking a sabbatical from September, so I won't be earning and investing more money (at least for a while). I will be living from rents of my rental properties. ...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

If you are going to DCA with this money, why wouldn’t you DCA with the rest of your investments (I.e., sell them all now, and DCA back in)? Taxes aside of course ...and bid ask spreads (I have Etfs). But I see your point. Guess it's a psychological thing as well. Though I am pretty sure that in a v...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Unless that "huge drop" comes after the DCA period, perhaps even immediately after. Once the DCA period is over, you are exposed to all the same risk as at the beginning. That's a really good point actually, I adn't thought of that :oops: I mean if the market is unpredictable then the chance that t...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Unless that "huge drop" comes after the DCA period, perhaps even immediately after. Once the DCA period is over, you are exposed to all the same risk as at the beginning. That's a really good point actually, I adn't thought of that :oops: I mean if the market is unpredictable then the chance that t...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

The above method should have less than a 1% to 2% performance difference a year from now versus just doing Lump-Sum now. ? The numbers come from dividing the "benefit" of LS vs DCA by 2. Do you understand why that is the case? [/quote] I guess that it's because half of the money is LSI, so since yo...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

As you said statistically it is inferior. yes but you are not a statistic, you only live once. Suppose in this particular situation you have a huge drop in the market after LSI, the damage will be much greater than if you DCA. So I'm trying to figure out the pros and cons. I mean generally DCA seem...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

no this is for my children or for me say 30 years from now. The point is I saw an article showing that LSI usually outperforms, but when it doesn't, it can underperform a lot compared to DCA. I try to copy the link below. https://ofdollarsanddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/ls_v_dca_outperforman...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

What are your thoughts on this, and over how long a time frame do you think it is reasonable to DCA? Alternatively, what do you think of putting limit orders, so that when (or if...) there are drops in prices, I can buy the Etfs cheaper? You do you, so I don't have any problems with DCA. I would in...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

dwickenh wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:48 am
It is really just a mental game to make sure you have no major regrets.
do you refer to DCA in that sentence?
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Do you see yourself under just about any circumstances needing this money in the next 5-10 years? no this is for my children or for me say 30 years from now. The point is I saw an article showing that LSI usually outperforms, but when it doesn't, it can underperform a lot compared to DCA. I try to ...
by Lauretta
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3213

lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

I have sold a house and have a sum to invest (which is more than 15% of my liquid worth). I know that statistically you're better off with a lump sum investment, however the market is a lot more volatile these days than usual, so I am considering DCA (though I know it sounds a bit like market timing...
by Lauretta
Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining a 'floor' to the price of real property
Replies: 11
Views: 457

Re: Determining a 'floor' to the price of real property

In practice I am presently wondering about house prices in my home town in Italy, to which I have returned after a long sabbatical abroad. I guess there's a floor. Pretty close to $0. https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/italy-one-euro-homes-roundup/index.html yes I knew about these but you have to t...
by Lauretta
Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining a 'floor' to the price of real property
Replies: 11
Views: 457

Re: Determining a 'floor' to the price of real property

If there isn't a demand for the property to rent, and you don't plan to use it yourself, I don't think there is a 'floor'. Real estate can be a liability, there's is usually property taxes as well as maintenance and general depreciation of the structure. There are parts of the U.S. where at times t...
by Lauretta
Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining a 'floor' to the price of real property
Replies: 11
Views: 457

Re: Determining a 'floor' to the price of real property

FWIW: prices may seem low but perhaps the properties are not "moving" and many of them have been on the market for sale for a long time with no buyers. In this case the market is overvalued and still not low enough to have sales movement. yes indeed they seem to be on the market for ages with no bu...
by Lauretta
Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining a 'floor' to the price of real property
Replies: 11
Views: 457

Determining a 'floor' to the price of real property

I am wondering whether one can estimate when real property prices have gone so low that they are unlikely to go lower. For example by comparing the price of houses to what it costs to build them? I am asking this question in the 'theory' section because I would like to understand in a general sense ...
by Lauretta
Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

Re: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

I'm curious, if you short the Euro, what currency would you be going long ? These things always trade in pairs, you have to put it in something else that you believe the thing being shorted will perform relatively worse against. Would you keep it in shorter term Euro cash? I don't understand your q...
by Lauretta
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

Re: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

I'm curious, if you short the Euro, what currency would you be going long ? These things always trade in pairs, you have to put it in something else that you believe the thing being shorted will perform relatively worse against. Would you keep it in shorter term Euro cash? I don't understand your q...
by Lauretta
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

Re: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

Also I cannot see how this would work in the context of a more or less sane portfolio. Would you hold stocks, euro bond shorts, and then other bonds? Or just stocks and euro bond shorts? Stocks, real estate, cash, assurance vie (a contract in France and Luxembourg where your capital is garanteed an...
by Lauretta
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

Re: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

You could use this ETF Amundi ETF Short Govt Bond EuroMTS Broad Investment Grade 10-15 Daily UCITS ETF I wouldn't do it Thanks! I did not know it existed. The only drawback (for what I wanted to do) is that it has broad investment grade bonds, whereas I was interested in AAA bonds, which have negat...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

Re: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

You could use this ETF Amundi ETF Short Govt Bond EuroMTS Broad Investment Grade 10-15 Daily UCITS ETF I wouldn't do it Thanks! I did not know it existed. The only drawback (for what I wanted to do) is that it has broad investment grade bonds, whereas I was interested in AAA bonds, which have negat...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

Re: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

You could use this ETF Amundi ETF Short Govt Bond EuroMTS Broad Investment Grade 10-15 Daily UCITS ETF I wouldn't do it Thanks! I did not know it existed. The only drawback (for what I wanted to do) is that it has broad investment grade bonds, whereas I was interested in AAA bonds, which have negat...
by Lauretta
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

Re: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

Most "efficient" way would be short selling a Eurobond future. They are in 100k EUR$ increments.... so that would be the smallest position you could take. You wouldn't need to post nearly that much, but would just need to prepare to fund a margin call if it went even further negative. Honestly, dow...
by Lauretta
Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 1379

How would one go about shorting Eurozone bonds?

Is it possible for retail investors to short Eurozone bonds, and if so how does one go about doing it?