Search found 435 matches

by mbasherp
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many months of expenses do you have in emergency savings and why?
Replies: 45
Views: 3159

Re: How many months of expenses do you have in emergency savings and why?

We have tiers. Under normal times: 3 months expenses in I bonds that would actually last 6 for job loss, when including unemployment. Varying cash in savings accounts beyond that for additional cushion or expected upcoming expenses. Currently this all adds up to 6 months expenses: $25k HVAC replacem...
by mbasherp
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks
Replies: 35
Views: 2324

Re: Individual stocks

I hold individual stocks with between 0 and 5% of my portfolio, as I see opportunity. I rigorously track my performance vs pure indexing and have beaten the market, although I still won’t allow myself to exceed 5% and I don’t currently see many stocks I want to own individually. I have found that th...
by mbasherp
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Perspective on Mortgage Forbearance
Replies: 36
Views: 1692

Re: Perspective on Mortgage Forbearance

The disagreement in this thread is actually indicative of disagreement in the industry about implementation of the program. I considered it previously, but when I spoke to my servicer, they said several things that conflicted with what I believed were the official sources for my Freddie Mac loan. Wh...
by mbasherp
Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I crazy to do this? [Equity Allocation 50/50 TSM/NASDAQ]
Replies: 150
Views: 9856

Re: Am I crazy to do this?

Anyone who calls you crazy for this has no perspective. Crazy is having your entire portfolio in one stock, or some shady “can’t lose” investment scheme run by a friend of a friend. You are talking about concentrating in NASDAQ listed companies because you think recent outperformance will continue. ...
by mbasherp
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with all this MONEY ?
Replies: 201
Views: 20708

Re: What to do with all this MONEY ?

Donating through the most effective charities, like Give Directly, often magnifies the value of your donation 10 or 100 fold. Perhaps your children can still learn a lot from you, as you improve others’ lives around the world! I’ll recommend the book “Doing Good Better” which I first learned of on t...
by mbasherp
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 18958

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I already had one reply in this thread detailing my personal thoughts. I’ll add what I see from the ensuing replies. As I see it: There is significant confusion between innovation/leaders and superior performing stocks. They do not go hand in hand at all. There is not enough weight given to the fact...
by mbasherp
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 18958

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I happen to side with those who think that dollar strength and the run of mega-caps explain a great deal of the difference in the past decade, and I don't think it's wise to assume those continue indefinitely. Why do I think that? All of recorded history agrees with it. But that's not why I hold 33%...
by mbasherp
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I am thinking about life insurance incorrectly?
Replies: 40
Views: 1942

Re: I am thinking about life insurance incorrectly?

I agree with your approach to insurance amounts. Remember that if something happened to one of you while the children are still minors, there is also the Social Security Survivors benefit available from your record, which you can look up. This would not be insignificant to the survivors budget, even...
by mbasherp
Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more
Replies: 131
Views: 14544

Re: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more

Thank you for pointing this out. I look forward to listening, but judging from your summary, I mostly agree with his take on where things stand now.
by mbasherp
Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 200
Views: 16228

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

If the situation persists, I think I will pay off my mortgage before adding bonds to my portfolio.

As much as we like to say ride out that low fixed rate mortgage, even the best mortgage rates now look like attractive risk free returns to pay off.
by mbasherp
Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to deal with single stock friends
Replies: 41
Views: 3334

Re: How to deal with single stock friends

I have evolved to allow myself to own a handful single stocks with up to 5% of my portfolio. I track my performance against buying and holding the index and I have beaten my benchmarks by 18% cumulatively over a year and a half. It feels good, but it's not materially changing anything for me. It too...
by mbasherp
Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

Congrats on the baby! I would check if the mortgage deferral impact your ability to refinance in the future. I read a post here a few weeks ago indicating a lender would not accept a refinance application if an applicant had a deferral history. I can't seem to find the post though. Indeed, that's a...
by mbasherp
Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

I work in the industry. Servicers are all over the place in their capabilities to follow these sorts of things (surprising but true, I have seen some crazy errors and lack of competency around what is a simple process of collecting and remitting payments and reporting). There is a chance that it wi...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

What I heard/wrote directly conflicts with several sources I have read during my extensive search. This includes various press releases that apply directly to Freddie Mac.

It is this lack of clarity which makes me uncomfortable trusting my servicer at such a delicate time.
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

To double back on my thread: I just got off my scheduled call with my servicer to get their details. The representative only knew how to read from a limited script and could not answer any hypothetical questions. They offered 90 days forbearance, with no extra interest or credit ramifications, and i...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford this mortgage
Replies: 24
Views: 2104

Re: Can we afford this mortgage

Our rule for home buying was max 2x annual gross income. I know that’s often nearly impossible in places like CA, but you’re right in line with it. I’d say that’s great, enjoy the house! If there is ANY chance of income being reduced in the future, consider using a 30 year loan, build assets like cr...
by mbasherp
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Tulip Mania?
Replies: 31
Views: 4856

Re: New Tulip Mania?

I think Nikola Motors is going to be successful with a lot of their ventures. I understand the hype; it’s pretty standard for new companies like that. Retail trader hype, etc. Their products and technology are unique and I personally see fuel cells as the future, even more than EVs. I’m not buying a...
by mbasherp
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Next Steps After Blown AC Units
Replies: 15
Views: 1031

Re: Next Steps After Blown AC Units

I'd rather not use my Roth IRA as an EF. It's simply not something I want to do. Well, this is the most efficient option, but I suppose you can disregard it if you really want to. If you’re at risk of not using all Roth IRA space in a given year, putting your E fund in there which you might tap is ...
by mbasherp
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey mentioned bogleheads today
Replies: 142
Views: 9952

Re: Dave Ramsey mentioned bogleheads today

Dave does his early followers a great service by getting them to understand their expenses and income, learn about assets and debt, and start to get their lives under control. He continues with some generally good advice about targeting savings rates and being prepared for bumps in the road. If you...
by mbasherp
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey mentioned bogleheads today
Replies: 142
Views: 9952

Re: Dave Ramsey mentioned bogleheads today

Dave does his early followers a great service by getting them to understand their expenses and income, learn about assets and debt, and start to get their lives under control. He continues with some generally good advice about targeting savings rates and being prepared for bumps in the road. If you ...
by mbasherp
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you hold cash for large expenses?
Replies: 29
Views: 2694

Re: Do you hold cash for large expenses?

My thinking is that now that I know it’s coming in the short term I should immediately set aside those funds from the portfolio to avoid being forced to sell lower, but given the same data folks often quote about lump sum vs DCA investing, doesn’t this mean 2/3 of the time it’s better to just wait ...
by mbasherp
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone not bother with Tax Loss Harvesting?
Replies: 116
Views: 7275

Re: Anyone not bother with Tax Loss Harvesting?

The benefits of TLH for the average person are overstated here. First it only applies to taxable investments. If all of your investments are in a 401k or IRA, move on it doesn't even apply. If you are in a lower income bracket (as most outside of BH are) especially in the 0% long term cap gains rat...
by mbasherp
Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

As for implications, note that while your score won’t be affected (assuming as others pointed out, this is actually implemented correctly by your servicer), there are implications on your access to new credit. Once there is a forbearance mark on the loan’s reporting, access to a refinance or new cr...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

I'm not suggesting that there won't come a time in the future where perhaps your financial situation changes, such as your wife being laid off or furloughed. However, you have done an excellent job living below your means and creating an emergency fund. Times like this are the reason you do that. Y...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

Immediately, our expenses will be covered with her reduced income and my UI payment. When the baby arrives, we will be deeply in the red without me working during maternity leave, and slightly in the red due to daycare thereafter. If you aren't working, why would you incur daycare expenses? Daycare...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

Are there effects on one's credit score by doing this? If so, is it the initial deferral or something about when it's paid back? But I certainly understand wanting to hold on to extra cash if the future is uncertain, and one's needs can't be pulled back too much that quickly, given family circumsta...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

Are there effects on one's credit score by doing this? If so, is it the initial deferral or something about when it's paid back? But I certainly understand wanting to hold on to extra cash if the future is uncertain, and one's needs can't be pulled back too much that quickly, given family circumsta...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

The counterpoint is that I don’t know what my “means to pay” will be in a year. And this program will not likely exist then, at least to initiate it in current form. There are so many variables, and we are not even close to financially independent, so I actually feel it might be irresponsible to sa...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

As I understand it, you first have to be approved for forebearance, then separately approved for deferral at the end of the forebearance period. Since the deferral program hasn't started, we don't really know what the approval rates will be. Freddie Mac hasn't made the criteria clear. Did you recei...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Re: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

I’ve been furloughed, and DW has taken a pay cut. We also have a baby on the way. We have a good sized emergency fund and taxable investments, but I’m considering utilizing the mortgage deferral program available to us, with our Freddie Mac owned mortgage. Defer 6 months of payments, which we would...
by mbasherp
Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral
Replies: 56
Views: 2598

Pros/cons of utilizing mortgage deferral

I’ve been furloughed, and DW has taken a pay cut. We also have a baby on the way. We have a good sized emergency fund and taxable investments, but I’m considering utilizing the mortgage deferral program available to us, with our Freddie Mac owned mortgage. Defer 6 months of payments, which we would ...
by mbasherp
Wed May 27, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 123
Views: 7933

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I have actually done well timing the market, but I'm unsure if it's worth the stress involved. I have never bought back in higher than I sold, and I have never been out of the market more than a week. The goal is to increase the number of shares owned with the same capital, often utilizing small mov...
by mbasherp
Mon May 25, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 73
Views: 6755

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

It's a somewhat tongue-in-cheek question but I'm also somewhat serious. Recent market volatility is making me sick, to the point where I've learned that I'm not sure I can handle it. I am not so idealistic as to believe that stocks always go up. The stock market did not recoup it's 1929 crash until...
by mbasherp
Sat May 23, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance appraisal issue
Replies: 16
Views: 1330

Re: Refinance appraisal issue

I also got burned by a low appraisal, but back in February before all this. No cash out refi... I heard from a friend that appraisers are often motivated to come in lower for these loans, no idea why. But ours indicated that we were worth the same as a smaller, non updated, poorly maintained home do...
by mbasherp
Wed May 20, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best place to gradually save $6000 to max-out Roth IRA contribution in January
Replies: 54
Views: 3906

Re: Best place to gradually save $6000 to max-out Roth IRA contribution in January

3a) If by the end of the year I can TLH, I will, and repurchase VTI in Roth after 31 days. You’re onto a good approach here, and I wanted to point out that this is, in my opinion, the best kind of TLH. Sell for a loss in taxable, move funds to Roth. Buy similar but not identical security. Change ba...
by mbasherp
Wed May 20, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income about to be halved - what do we do?
Replies: 62
Views: 7868

Re: Income about to be halved - what do we do?

At this point given the seriousness of this pandemic and its potential to crush our economy in the next 6-12 months, I'd suggest you do a lifeboat drill. That means you assume you both will lose your jobs in the next 30-60 days and that you still need a way to survive a full 12 months with no addit...
by mbasherp
Tue May 19, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income about to be halved - what do we do?
Replies: 62
Views: 7868

Re: Income about to be halved - what do we do?

If you want maximum flexibility, don’t put such a big chunk of cash into your home right now. You’ve already done a lot of that. If anything, look into a recast of your mortgage so you can drop your payment amount and still be on the same amortization schedule. They’re usually cheap and you’ll have ...
by mbasherp
Wed May 13, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to buy physical gold right now?
Replies: 5
Views: 543

Re: Where to buy physical gold right now?

I’ve had good luck with Provident Metals and JM Bullion. Not sure where their premiums are right now. One thought I had that might partially offset these higher premiums is taking out a new credit with a big spend bonus, and paying that way. They charge more of a premium, but your bonus will offset ...
by mbasherp
Tue May 12, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payment instead of bonds: how?
Replies: 39
Views: 2441

Re: Mortgage payment instead of bonds: how?

I merely take this line of logic to mean that it makes more sense to pay down/off a mortgage than to hold any bonds when spreads get this wide. The implication is that the mortgage is no longer "the cheapest money you'll ever borrow" anymore. What was a low rate of 3.xx% fixed is not a low rate anym...
by mbasherp
Tue May 12, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appraiser is asking for more money in the middle of refinance process, legal?
Replies: 36
Views: 3353

Re: Appraiser is asking for more money in the middle of refinance process, legal?

A similar thing happened mid refinance for me, in February. Appraisal was $505, a week later, before showing up, they charged an extra $80 to my credit card. I contacted the lender and they immediately got the appraiser to reverse the charge. I expect you’ll have a similar outcome. If an appraiser i...
by mbasherp
Mon May 11, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategies for a lower income
Replies: 12
Views: 829

Re: Strategies for a lower income

There are no restrictions on wash sales? Not for tax gain harvesting events. I'm open to be corrected on this, but I can't think of a scenario where there would be restrictions. Basically, realize all the long term capital gains you possibly can, staying in the 0% CG bracket. In my opinion, tax los...
by mbasherp
Mon May 11, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategies for a lower income
Replies: 12
Views: 829

Re: Strategies for a lower income

Looks to me like you're in an ideal position to tax gain harvest. All those unrealized gains in the second taxable account are a blessing when combined with the low income. At the end of the year, do the math to see just how much capital gains you can create, up to that $80k amount that is the end o...
by mbasherp
Sun May 10, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 year mortgage vs 30 year payoff in 15
Replies: 41
Views: 3494

Re: 15 year mortgage vs 30 year payoff in 15

For the 30yr, did you mean 3.5(not 2.5)? No not 3.5%. Right now average rate for 30 year is around 3%. I am proposing paying 2 points to lower it to 2.5%. Basically I’m paying 2 points to close the rate spread of 30 yr and 15 yr on my calculation model. Where are you finding 3% to be an average 30 ...
by mbasherp
Fri May 08, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]
Replies: 66
Views: 4866

Re: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]

I agree on the valuation. Although it was a prime candidate to pick up as the market tanked in March (and I did, with my small stock picking portion of my portfolio). I was convinced that its momentum would resume quickly and I was right. I sold at 700 and beat the market by 60% in 2 months. A winn...
by mbasherp
Fri May 08, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Percentage of savings to "prepping"?
Replies: 132
Views: 8789

Re: Percentage of savings to "prepping"?

Any money spent on this category is spent... period. It is consumption. I would not relate it at all to savings or investments. That being said, it is not that expensive to have a couple months of food, weeks of water, and reasonable preps for reasonable possibilities. Rotate the food by eating it. ...
by mbasherp
Thu May 07, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]
Replies: 66
Views: 4866

Re: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]

I agree on the valuation. Although it was a prime candidate to pick up as the market tanked in March (and I did, with my small stock picking portion of my portfolio). I was convinced that its momentum would resume quickly and I was right. I sold at 700 and beat the market by 60% in 2 months. A winn...
by mbasherp
Thu May 07, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]
Replies: 66
Views: 4866

Re: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]

I agree on the valuation. Although it was a prime candidate to pick up as the market tanked in March (and I did, with my small stock picking portion of my portfolio). I was convinced that its momentum would resume quickly and I was right. I sold at 700 and beat the market by 60% in 2 months. A winne...
by mbasherp
Mon May 04, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way & work uncertain, help me assess cash/liquidity
Replies: 21
Views: 1513

Re: Baby on the way & work uncertain, help me assess cash/liquidity

Might be worth a few hours of calling around to banks to see if you can refi the mortgage at a lower rate and lower the monthly payments. We closed on a refi at the end of February with a rate we locked in January. I wish I would’ve floated, obviously. I nearly pulled out of closing, but figured th...
by mbasherp
Sun May 03, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way & work uncertain, help me assess cash/liquidity
Replies: 21
Views: 1513

Re: Baby on the way & work uncertain, help me assess cash/liquidity

Congrats! Seem to me that your worst-case scenario is that you both lose your jobs and also your health insurance, all at the same time. So make sure you can cover that scenario with cash for 6 months or more. Sounds like you are close to that now, but are you going to have a period where you wife ...
by mbasherp
Sun May 03, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way & work uncertain, help me assess cash/liquidity
Replies: 21
Views: 1513

Re: Baby on the way & work uncertain, help me assess cash/liquidity

Monthly expenses are only $4k and that includes mortgage and daycare? What about health insurance should you both become unemployed? It would be lean at $4k, but yes. No debt other than mortgage goes a LONG way. If we are both unemployed around the time of delivery or soon after, we would qualify f...