Search found 1650 matches

by Thesaints
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11992

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

The issue is the volatility of returns. How can you issue a promise to pay X when you can’t account for sequence of risk? What is the formula for that? Bankruptcy to make good on a promise with unlimited cost? The simple answer is that annuity companies manage to do precisely that, and while making...
by Thesaints
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11992

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

What does it mean "overpromised" ? Why it is so difficult to account for deferred compensation ? Pensions don't necessarily have to be funded by contributions. If an employer offers a 150k/yr. salary, nobody bats an eye, but if they offer 100k/yr. plus 5k/yr. per year of service starting at age 65, ...
by Thesaints
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2207

Re: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds

Interest rates too low and don't buy longer-termed bonds, perhaps ?
by Thesaints
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11992

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

IIRC, Merton has been pushing this idea of instruments that provide a guaranteed lifetime income for some time That "some time" better be equal to "all the years you still get to live", otherwise the income wouldn't be "lifetime". Anyway, your description sounds similar to this thing I once read ab...
by Thesaints
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your property taxes?
Replies: 357
Views: 20260

Re: What are others paying for property taxes around the US?

Cali does not tax based on square footage, but on assessed value. Essentially last sale plus ~2%/yr since.
This year we went over 15k for the first time.
by Thesaints
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11992

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Where does that 15% saving figure comes from ? Certainly, it can be correct independently of one's salary and retirement expenses... Nothing wrong with using a percentage of your earnings, irregardless of salary level, especially for a rule of thumb. Someone making $1M and saving 15% spends the sam...
by Thesaints
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?
Replies: 38
Views: 2856

Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

About one million behind in total net worth.
by Thesaints
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11992

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Simply put, individual accounts are not the best tool for providing financial support for one's retirement, at least as the essential support is concerned.

Where does that 15% saving figure comes from ? Certainly, it can be correct independently of one's salary and retirement expenses...
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6353

Re: Health insurance for FIRE

A person who FIREs is planning to spend maybe half a century in retirement and if a few extra thousand dollars per year make a difference then the answer is obvious: not ready to retire. This is compounded by the associated frugal living philosophy. A terrible plan; it leaves no margin for errors. O...
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Southern California Vacation Questions
Replies: 39
Views: 2021

Re: Southern California Vacation Questions

I second the Westwood recommendation. At the Beverly Hilton is quite good, for instance. Having a car available will definitely be an advantage when you want to visit attractions which are distant from each other. The 2 Getty's are both very good, as well as Griffith Park and the Science Center. On ...
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6353

Re: Health insurance for FIRE

Then you answered your question yourself: it costs 2k/month.
Now you know it; what's the problem ?
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX & low volatility performance
Replies: 12
Views: 1471

Re: VMVFX & low volatility performance

Portfolio7 wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:00 pm
Currently it's about 80% Equity, 20% Cash, per Morningstar. I'm not sure I understand that, I would think Equity should be 90-95%.
Not if they hedge. However 80% sounds suspiciously too low, also given the fact that in April it was close to 99%.
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3891
Views: 1089152

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

dm200 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:45 pm
I continue to be puzzled at the generally high cost of going to the movies in person.
As opposed to sending someone else ?

However, "Overlord".
Geronimo !
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6353

Re: Health insurance for FIRE

4nursebee wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:11 pm
Background: If health insurance costs were known we would have enough to FIRE now...
Allow me to rephrase it: "If health costs were low enough, we would have enough to FIRE now"

It is not a problem of you not knowing, but of them being potentially much higher than what you can bear.
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums
Replies: 96
Views: 6943

Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

Read Mr. Bogle's reasons to avoid foreign. Is Mr. Bogle wiser than the market ? There are reasons why an individual US-based investor may be better off by reducing his share of foreign stocks below its capitalization weighted level, but it is highly dubious if that could ever amount to a large redu...
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for new allocation or new fund in retirement?
Replies: 7
Views: 590

Re: Advice for new allocation or new fund in retirement?

Well, you have no exposure to the foreign half (presently) of the stock market and the total bond index fund does not have a duration necessarily tuned to your particular needs.
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums
Replies: 96
Views: 6943

Re: Anybody Miss the Crypto Rage on BH Forums

coupleofcents wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:12 pm
What other investing philosophies/strategies do you find most likely to compete with Bogleheads in the years to come?
FIRE.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:06 pm
Bitcoin and foreign stocks all had their run on this forum.
You mean staying away from ~half of the World's stock market for no good reason ?
by Thesaints
Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3364

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

If one can accumulate all the money needed for the desired retirement by stashing funds in a checking account, why invest in anything but, provided he/she has no higher aspirations ?
by Thesaints
Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how to advice super conservative parents
Replies: 14
Views: 1086

Re: how to advice super conservative parents

If they are that conservative, chances are they would rather be advised..
by Thesaints
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: rebalanced to bonds and intl out of US equtiies
Replies: 8
Views: 701

Re: rebalanced to bonds and intl out of US equtiies

In the recent runup of US and rundown of bonds and international, i balanced a little into bonds and interntional from US, to meet my allocation goals. Wonder if this will be a good idea or not based on so many here at BH who are negative on bonds or intl. That's what "rebalancing" is all about. Or...
by Thesaints
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Inversion! Real estate prices, and more.
Replies: 25
Views: 2140

Re: Bond Inversion! Real estate prices, and more.

PolarBearMarket wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:35 pm
The statement is accurate, just misleading to interpret 'preceded' as 'forecasted.'
Superbowl games have preceded every single recession since 1966...
by Thesaints
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Bond returns are currently negative. Why should I buy bonds now?]
Replies: 19
Views: 2486

Re: [Bond returns are currently negative. Why should I buy bonds now?]

[Moved into a separate post from: Bond alternative to balance portfolio? --admin LadyGeek] I'm an EXTREME novice at investing and trying to learn as much as I can right now. This is something that I can't seem to make sense of. Can someone please have the patience to explain to me why you would buy...
by Thesaints
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for new allocation or new fund in retirement?
Replies: 7
Views: 590

Re: Advice for new allocation or new fund in retirement?

Ask yourself who is the payout managed for. It will be a kind of "average investor" and if you are him, then the fund is likely good for you. On the other hand, if you aren't that "average" and have the skills to combine stock and bond funds to obtain a payout tailored to your specific needs...
by Thesaints
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VMNVX Vanguard Global Min Vol Fund in Taxable
Replies: 10
Views: 676

Re: VMNVX Vanguard Global Min Vol Fund in Taxable

As far as I can remember, the MVF has not distributed capital gains. A fairer comparison would be against the VTWSX, which is also a global stock fund, and arguably they are very similar as tax efficiency is concerned. VTSAX is an exclusively domestic fund, which means dividend distributions are ~10...
by Thesaints
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Inversion! Real estate prices, and more.
Replies: 25
Views: 2140

Re: Bond Inversion! Real estate prices, and more.

"... and yield curve inversions have preceded each of the last seven recessions (as defined by the NBER." https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-gdp-growth.aspx Yes, but not all yield curve inversions have been followed by recessions. The old say going like "y...
by Thesaints
Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying with no interest
Replies: 22
Views: 2021

Re: Buying with no interest

Perhaps it is only me, but I continuously receive offers for credit cards at 0% APR for 12-18 months, with a few $100's bonus to boot. Not clear why the OP would want to open a retailer card, while the above are available. I'd say the true BH's philosophy would be to take on as much 0% credit as pos...
by Thesaints
Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

So, why do you think that a 80/20 allocation is riskier than a 50/50 ? I am always careful to call asset allocation as risk control crude and approximate. I am also always very careful to nail down what a poster intends to communicate by their word risk . It's so overused here it's all but meaningl...
by Thesaints
Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

My asset allocation reflects my need, ability, and willingness to take risk, including during periods of heightened market volatility (and this ain't nothin'). I already adjusted. PJW What if market volatility changed permanently ? Wouldn't you reanalyze your AA ? Volatility changed permanently? Wh...
by Thesaints
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

So, why do you think that a 80/20 allocation is riskier than a 50/50 ?
by Thesaints
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The BIG question - Asset allocation in retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1789

Re: The BIG question - Asset allocation in retirement

The “U” shaped allocation is a newish fad. It originates from the obvious observation that in the year one dies, they could very well be 100% in stocks; even if the market crashes brutally there would still be enough money to support their last days. Anyway, since what really counts is the risk inte...
by Thesaints
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

What if market volatility changed permanently ? How and when would you know that this has happened? How do you know that market volatility is what it is ? Um, Thesaints, it always is what it is. PJW Yeah, how do you know that number ? And if you don’t, how did you calculate your “optimal AA based o...
by Thesaints
Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The BIG question - Asset allocation in retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1789

Re: The BIG question - Asset allocation in retirement

You are at 58/42 and want to get to 75/25 in 33 years.
Have you tried running MC on shifting 0.5% from bonds to stocks yearly ?
by Thesaints
Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

22twain wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:51 am
Thesaints wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:47 am
What if market volatility changed permanently ?
How and when would you know that this has happened?
How do you know that market volatility is what it is ?
by Thesaints
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:35 pm
My asset allocation reflects my need, ability, and willingness to take risk, including during periods of heightened market volatility (and this ain't nothin').

I already adjusted.

PJW
What if market volatility changed permanently ? Wouldn't you reanalyze your AA ?
by Thesaints
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Restaurant Budget
Replies: 113
Views: 6593

Re: Restaurant Budget

A big problem with restaurant food is that it is generally not even vaguely healthy. Everything is drenched in fat, oil, butter, salt or sugar. Portions are vast (in the US). Alcohol is packed with calories. Other drinks are sugar-laden. So, if you out out a lot (regardless of cost/coupons) you are...
by Thesaints
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do Bogleheads justify taking vacation?
Replies: 102
Views: 4409

Re: How do Bogleheads justify taking vacation?

Vacations, food, and sleep are totally unnecessary.
A true, financially prudent, boglehead stays well clear of such thing.
by Thesaints
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

VIX is no crystal ball, though. Just the implied volatility in options trading.
It is a predictor as accurate as how much spread between treasuries and same maturity TIPS is for future inflation.
by Thesaints
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation question in current market conditions
Replies: 3
Views: 287

Re: Asset allocation question in current market conditions

Is your terminal allocation 40% stocks 60% bonds ? If you skip one year, you will enter retirement at 42/58.
There is no data that can support doing, or not doing, what you propose. The difference is insignificant.
by Thesaints
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: just retired. need to figure out a fixed income strategy.
Replies: 14
Views: 2643

Re: just retired. need to figure out a fixed income strategy.

Maybe that would have been something to plan before retiring...
by Thesaints
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Restaurant Budget
Replies: 113
Views: 6593

Re: Restaurant Budget

We don't keep track of it. Eat out whenever we feel like and it is a negligible amount. If we didn't stay clear of the multi $100's, if not $1000's, priced bottles things would be different, I guess... I read that restaurant charges diners 3x the cost of food ingredients to make money. That means it...
by Thesaints
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

It would only make sense to adjust given future market volatility and only if it is different from the volatility you expected when you chose your investment.
by Thesaints
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lower auto/home liability, max umbrella?
Replies: 13
Views: 921

Re: Lower auto/home liability, max umbrella?

Doesn't the cost of the umbrella policy depend on how much coverage one has on the auto policy ?
by Thesaints
Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: University of California Retirement Plan Proprietary Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2780

Re: University of California Retirement Plan Proprietary Funds

Does anybody know where to find info on the UC proprietary funds portfolio (durations, for instance). Information on the Fidelity site is rather scarce. For instance, what do they have in the Savings fund ? Fidelity says "medium risk quality" on one chart and the next table says portfolio is 98% AA ...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?
Replies: 77
Views: 8826

Re: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?

Of course it does not, for most but not all bond funds, as I detailed in my post above . PJW But that's just an accounting trick. Bond funds with monthly payout set dividend payments aside, so it does not appear in the NAV but it is liquidated on a pro-rated basis when one sells mid-month. For inst...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple-minded sayings?
Replies: 37
Views: 3148

Re: Simple-minded sayings?

The first refers to rebalancing — which means having the nerve to buy stocks after a crash when others are afraid to. That's a rather free interpretation, IMO. One has to rebalance regardless of whether (other) investors are being greedy, or fearful. I see the aphorism as somewhat implying that thi...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 4067

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hubby soon to be laid off
Replies: 74
Views: 7909

Re: Hubby soon to be laid off

Would have to agree, 3600/yr for homeowner's insurance sounds crazy high It's about 0.5% of the value. Is that high? What coverage do they have ? My insurance is a little more than 1k for double the value. Of course land value is not insured, but I can't see how the OP valuation may be almost all b...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hubby soon to be laid off
Replies: 74
Views: 7909

Re: Hubby soon to be laid off

If you want to stay, refinance your mortgage to a 30 year. That will cut your mortgage payment by 1/3 even with a higher interest rate. Let your heirs pay off the mortgage when they sell the house. If your husband gets another job you can aggressively pay it off. If you go that route the extra inte...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 4067

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

As another aside, I have a hard time believing that established real estate properties have a return close to stocks. Risk and return and linked, and established rent paying properties have low risk, or at least lower than that of most individual stocks. Now, if we are talking about something in tu...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 4067

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...