Search found 5056 matches

by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 18
Views: 1038

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

That's the idea behind the fork: Zillow checks all sales in the area and scales for square footage. Amongst the houses sold there will be some with views, some with solar panels, etc. Also, in given neighborhood, houses tend to be comparable.
Therefore, unless your home is really unique for the neighborhood, its value (i.e. how much it could be sold for) will generally fall between Zillow's low and high price.
Clearly, if the neighborhood is not there (open country and the likes) and as a consequence of a. very small number of homes in a given area, sales data is very scarce, even the fork might be wrong.
In a urban/suburban environment, chances of that happening are low.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Basket of Stocks
Replies: 2
Views: 150

Re: Basket of Stocks

TIPS are absolutely protected.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer withheld taxes from my paycheck but wasn't paying the IRS and state
Replies: 13
Views: 1360

Re: Employer withheld taxes from my paycheck but wasn't paying the IRS and state

Employees are not on the hook if their employer does not pay the IRS. It is the IRS who gave them withholding agency. They could have chosen to have employers not involved and rely on employees to pay estimated taxes.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 366
Views: 34407

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

HanSolo wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:08 pm But maybe quality standards have changed since I left the industry.
They haven't. Vanguard's IT is simply shameful for a company that size, working in such a sector.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 18
Views: 1038

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

Setting aside those cases when Zillow has the wrong info, obviously they don't know the specifics of each house (Does it have a view ? Needs TLC ? etc.). The point price may be off the mark, but the price fork is pretty accurate.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 12
Views: 821

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging

as long as you believe two principles, DCA will always lose . 1) You can't time the market consistently, and 2) the stock market goes up over time because of value being created through businesses growing, otherwise it is a zero-sum game. My point was, the choice for DCA vs lump sum should be based on your ability to weather downturns, the math is unambiguous. No, because the market value does not increase monotonically. The correct way to look at the issue is looking at the difference in cost basis at the end of the acquisition period. Lump sum's will be a single one of all the prices within the period, whereas DCA's will be an average of those. It means that the DCA's cost basis can never be as high (nor as low) as it can be via lump sum...
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New insights on safe and perpetual withdrawal rates
Replies: 58
Views: 5768

Re: New insights on safe and perpetual withdrawal rates

So, the "4% rule" in its complete form would state that given a certain asset allocation (60/40, or whatever) I can withdraw 4% of the initial capital, adjusted for inflation AND if at any point my adjusted capital exceeds the initial capital, I can recalculated the withdrawal amount based on the larger capital. Sounds pretty good, but now I have a doubt: Let's say after 1 year my adjusted capital is 900k (instead of 1.1M). Would I have to recalculate my withdrawal and lower it to 36k/yr ? I'm thinking of my friend Charles, who retired one year after me, on a 900k capital. He applied the rule and indeed came up with a 36k yearly income. It is true that he has 30 years of withdrawals in front of him, while I have only 29 left, but ...
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial implications of long jury duty
Replies: 24
Views: 1780

Re: Financial implications of long jury duty

LongRoad wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:41 am I think one aspect is to avoid seating jurors who will have an undue financial self-interest in completing their service as quickly as possible.

If I were on trial, I wouldn't want jurors who were more concerned with getting back to work than giving my case a full and thorough deliberation.
Any judge doing that would guarantee a successful appeal, should the defendant succumb.
A jury cannot be selected based on census.
Never bring up financial issues to be dismissed. If you fo you do it, the judge will be very reluctant to let you go, even if you have other, admissible, reasons.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax brackets etc assuming TCJA sunset no new laws
Replies: 24
Views: 2403

Re: tax brackets etc assuming TCJA sunset no new laws

...and the marriage penalty comes back with a vengeance. We will not be able to remain both employed. Sorry. What are you referring to? Pre-TCJA brackets for MFJ were not double the single brackets from 25% and up. Two individuals in the top half of the 25% bracket would be in the 28% bracket when they got married. Same for higher brackets. On the other hand, the SALT cap is a current marriage penalty. And this would prevent Thesaints and spouse for both staying employed? A marginal increase of 3% on the top part of their income? How much are we really talking about here? Well, above 33% brackets are almost exactly the same, so if OP is high income, and the spouse makes a modest salary, her effective tax rate can go from 5-10% to 40%. The ...
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11016

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

fortunefavored wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:18 am Living cheap gives a lot of advantages…
The two big disadvantages of living cheap:
1) You have to live cheap
2) It is extremely hard, when not impossible, to live cheaper, should need arise.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 18, 2024 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New insights on safe and perpetual withdrawal rates
Replies: 58
Views: 5768

Re: New insights on safe and perpetual withdrawal rates

I retired last year, on a 1 million capital.
Following all these discussions, I was convinced that 4% is indeed a safe withdrawal rate when having a 30 years maximum time span in mind.
Turns out my investments did exceptionally well and , after withdrawing 40k and adjusting for inflation, my capital is now 1.1 millions.
Question: can I recalculate the 4% swr now and withdraw 44k/yr. going forward (adjusted for inflation) ?

My friend Bob is 1 year younger than me and he is retiring now. Turns out he has a 1.1M capital and also has embraced the 4% swr theory.
If he can safely withdraw 44k/yr. why shouldn’t I ? It would be even safer for me, since I only have a 29 year time horizon, rather than his 30…
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS says I owe it money, but I don't
Replies: 28
Views: 3333

Re: IRS says I owe it money, but I don't

Not sure I understand: estimated taxes and withholdings from financial transactions are two different things.
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 11016

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

At 35k/yr the OP is already living in a cheap location. On the other hand, with 1.75M he would be the fifth wealthiest person in Somalia.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax brackets etc assuming TCJA sunset no new laws
Replies: 24
Views: 2403

Re: tax brackets etc assuming TCJA sunset no new laws

...and the marriage penalty comes back with a vengeance. We will not be able to remain both employed. Or married.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax brackets etc assuming TCJA sunset no new laws
Replies: 24
Views: 2403

Re: tax brackets etc assuming TCJA sunset no new laws

Will the SALT deduction come back ?
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New insights on safe and perpetual withdrawal rates
Replies: 58
Views: 5768

Re: New insights on safe and perpetual withdrawal rates

In all these studies, success is defined as having at least 1 cent left at the end of year 30 (or whatever the chosen retirement duration is).
That only works if one knows his/her date of death: “I only have one year of expenses left after year 29, but that works very well because I won’t need a dime come year 31”
In actuality, that retirement plan (i.e. withdrawal rate) would have been busted several years earlier, when the a retiree sees capital dwindling and doesn’t have any assurance of how many years are left.

As the 15-year critical change in slope is concerned, I have learned not to trust my eyes. Could you plot the derivative of all those curves and check if indeed -15 years have a special meaning ?
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 12
Views: 821

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging

Define “better” and what if your parents had cost averaged over 2 years instead of 50 ? That’s how DCA is done, btw; over periods short compared to the time span of the investment
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity 1099 Corrected Div. Already filed 2023 taxes, options
Replies: 8
Views: 645

Re: Fidelity 1099 Corrected Div. Already filed 2023 taxes, options

You can send a 1040X right after filing the 1040. I have done that last year; no issue. There was no refund, nor payment involved, though.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice re London Neighborhoods, Hotels?
Replies: 21
Views: 1637

Re: Advice re London Neighborhoods, Hotels?

There is a very nice DoubleTree Hyde Park. Central, well connected, location, but across the street from Kensington Palace, which reduces noise and traffic.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 42
Views: 3420

Re: Please check my thinking about changing my Roth account from VTIAX to VTSAX

If you vanguard advisor says that VTIAX has larger risk than VTSAX, ask him why you should hold it at all.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 366
Views: 34407

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

In summary, Vanguard loves the 7 trillions under management, but would rather have 50 customers instead of 50 millions.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 12
Views: 821

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging

DCA reduces the volatility of one’s investment ex-ante and, in particular, cuts tail risk both on the negative and on the positive side.
This comes at a price, of course, equal to about half the DCA period length worth of expected return.
It is all very simple and the math behind is not even that hard, but necessitates a solid understand of financial risk.

And, no, DCA-ing into an investment is different from only investing half of the money over that same time span: it should be evident to everyone that in the former case one is eventually invested 100%, while in the latter one is only invested 50%.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 16, 2024 12:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying an Expensive Car
Replies: 79
Views: 6266

Re: Buying an Expensive Car

Buy it used. Problem solved.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which fixed income investment to choose
Replies: 2
Views: 439

Re: Which fixed income investment to choose

For the same reasons why a total stock market fund is right for almost every individual investor, a total bond market is best for almost no one.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard MM Cash reserves and CA State tax write off potential
Replies: 9
Views: 568

Re: Vanguard MM Cash reserves and CA State tax write off potential

Nice work Vanguard !! They selected a settlement fund which just barely does not qualify for California.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9671

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

I agree, but that’s not my point.
The chance for a 50yo man (military or not) to reach age 60 is 91.5%.
So, when at age 50 you look at the present value of a pension collected starting age 60, you have to discount the amount 10 years AND multiply it by 0.915. The amount collected at age 61 gets further discounted by an additional year and then multiplied by 0.902 (not all 60yo reach age 61), and so forth.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 366
Views: 34407

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

The were forced to get rid of the ship logo: the new and improved website does not support bitmap graphics.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation
Replies: 29
Views: 3510

Re: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation

Funny thing: gold prices has floated since 1971 and in these 50 years and change it has been as likely to go up than to go down during periods of above average inflation.
Not a good hedge in my book.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Microsoft Office 2021 for Home
Replies: 47
Views: 3285

Re: Microsoft Office 2021 for Home

Paid about $30 for lifetime license.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9671

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

gunny2 wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:57 pm I looked and didn't see anything comparing military to civilian. Have a link?
It does not matter, besides you said risk of death is very low. It is not they are engaged in trench warfare these days.
Factoring in chance of death is a basic aspect of evaluating present value of future benefits. For all: army, marines and accountants.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9671

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

gunny2 wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:31 pm
Thesaints wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:50 pm The probability for a 50 year old to reach age 60 is 91.5%.
Is that civilian or military? And how does it compare to the other? And where are you getting this?
Actuarial tables. average for the entire population (male)
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Model and spreadsheet for asset location
Replies: 24
Views: 2979

Re: Model and spreadsheet for asset location

ivgrivchuck wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:06 pm I don't doubt that if you have an asset with >50% annual return then the math shows that Roth is the right location for that asset in all circumstances. Very few people on this board have such assets. If you are one of them, then good for you.
but you never know in advance. It could be 0% return. Therefore, fill the Roth with the highest volatility assets you have. Maybe you will be as lucky as PT.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much should I leave to nieces/nephews vs. siblings vs. charity I'm passionate about?
Replies: 58
Views: 4174

Re: How much should I leave to nieces/nephews vs. siblings vs. charity I'm passionate about?

You could give the money to your relatives now. It does not seem to be needed and 15k are more appreciated by a 25yo than by a 55yo.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Model and spreadsheet for asset location
Replies: 24
Views: 2979

Re: Model and spreadsheet for asset location

ivgrivchuck wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:37 am
Thesaints wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:15 am Roth doesn’t pay any taxes going forward. For long enough time horizons, you want the highest possible volatility assets there (start up stock shares, if it is an option).
The idea is not to shave a 2% in taxes, but to pay no taxes on a 10 million gain.
Many Bogleheads seem to use these kind of mental short-cuts, and ignoring the actual math. It's not about which account type is best for which asset class, but rather what is best for your portfolio as a whole.
I think that's actual math, once one takes into account the stochastic aspect of investing. Famously, Peter Thiel crammed his Roth with PayPal stock and now has 5 billions tax free.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9671

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

gunny2 wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:42 pm Yes, and my point is that the difference is negligible.
The probability for a 50 year old to reach age 60 is 91.5%. Not that negligible. That's why AAA rated bonds pay less interest than those rated AA. In both case one could say that the probability of default is negligible.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash or CD's Instead of Bond Funds
Replies: 61
Views: 5441

Re: Cash or CD's Instead of Bond Funds

cash is "bonds"
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9671

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

gunny2 wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 1:14 pm ?? If the implication there is combat, a very tiny percentage of military people ever are put in such situations.
I mean that the correct calculation of present value of future benefits has to include the chance of death (not unlike the chance of default for bonds).
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9671

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

sunrider6 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:07 pm p.s. and yes, I'm aware that staying in vs. getting out has many more compnents to it than just money.
Such as staying alive ?
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating Time to $1MM and each $100k
Replies: 22
Views: 3062

Re: Calculating Time to $1MM and each $100k

papiper wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 7:52 am Image
What’s the horizontal axis ?
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Model and spreadsheet for asset location
Replies: 24
Views: 2979

Re: Model and spreadsheet for asset location

Roth doesn’t pay any taxes going forward. For long enough time horizons, you want the highest possible volatility assets there (start up stock shares, if it is an option).
The idea is not to shave a 2% in taxes, but to pay no taxes on a 10 million gain.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: California housing prices vs net people moving out.
Replies: 17
Views: 1144

Re: California housing prices vs net people moving out.

Lots of people living in the most desirable areas are historical residents who never worked for Google, do not have millions in the bank. Yet, on a first come first served basis, own a home in the most expensive ZIP’s.
They are not necessarily moving to Texas/Colorado. They are not selling either.
In fact, a large fraction of the 200+ k$/yr crowd moving out, never owned a “most desirable home”, but had to live in a rental apartment in Foster City, for instance.
by Thesaints
Mon Mar 11, 2024 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much Cash Do You Keep In Your Home?
Replies: 207
Views: 14901

Re: How Much Cash Do You Keep In Your Home?

In case you have to skip town plastic is no good: About 13k in two currencies, some gold coins, a loaded .380 ACP, fake mustache and a wig.
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can I Measure - Find the Tax Efficiency of an ETF?
Replies: 9
Views: 1005

Re: How Can I Measure - Find the Tax Efficiency of an ETF?

exodusNH wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 3:00 pm They don't pay taxes because they pass all earnings to the fund holders.
An active mutual fund also passes all earnings to holders. How much taxes it depends on its turnover rate, which is linked to its tax efficiency
viceversa ETF don't really "trade". They do not generate taxes in addition to whatever taxes are linked to the underlying securities. Their tax efficiency is perfect.
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: University California reducing pension payout for contingent annuitants
Replies: 19
Views: 3685

Re: University California reducing pension payout for contingent annuitants

15% mortality reduction is for healthy retirees, if I'm not mistaken. If people retired earlier, their mortality would drop (on average)
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 10, 2024 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can I Measure - Find the Tax Efficiency of an ETF?
Replies: 9
Views: 1005

Re: How Can I Measure - Find the Tax Efficiency of an ETF?

They don’t pay taxes, thanks to in-kind transactions.
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and dice VTI for tax savings: worth the squeeze?
Replies: 17
Views: 1504

Re: Slice and dice VTI for tax savings: worth the squeeze?

Assuming the OP does not incur into taxable cg when slicing and dicing, it all depends on the amount of dividends. An advantage of 0.something percent results in a few dollars for every thousand dollars of dividends.
IMO, you have a million dollars in dividends; yes it is worth the effort. If you have 10 thousand, it is not.
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS
Replies: 69
Views: 6688

Re: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS

What does happen is not necessarily what it was supposed, or more likely, to happen
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Reduce $258k Capital Loss Carryforward?
Replies: 18
Views: 2180

Re: Should I Reduce $258k Capital Loss Carryforward?

You can change the basis by using accumulated losses after (and if) they change the step-up law. Until then it is more efficient to reduce income yearly, I think