Search found 2615 matches

by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have $100k in savings. Dollar cost averaging or lump sum investment?
Replies: 13
Views: 1594

Re: I have $100k in savings. Dollar cost averaging or lump sum investment?

I understand. If there is a logical reason to DCA new money, then that logic should apply to previously invested money (my 401k example) which nobody would actually do. That's the logic of those who have not understood what DCA does and what its benefit is. There are emotional reasons, but using ma...
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have $100k in savings. Dollar cost averaging or lump sum investment?
Replies: 13
Views: 1594

Re: I have $100k in savings. Dollar cost averaging or lump sum investment?

Won't you be bummed if the market crawls up 10% slowly over the DCA period and then crashes the day you are fully invested? If you had carefully saved for 30 years in a 401k and had $2.5M at retirement, would you move it all to cash and then redeploy it via DCA? Of course not. New money is no diffe...
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have $100k in savings. Dollar cost averaging or lump sum investment?
Replies: 13
Views: 1594

Re: I have $100k in savings. Dollar cost averaging or lump sum investment?

Investing in installments lowers your expected return and reduces the volatility of your final return, compared to a lump sum investment.
It's kind of easy math.
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard predict that International stocks will outperform US stocks 10 years out?
Replies: 14
Views: 1908

Re: Why does Vanguard predict that International stocks will outperform US stocks 10 years out?

Why does Vanguard predict that International stocks will outperform US stocks 10 years out? They have run their proprietary VCMM simulation many times and results point out to such a conclusion in a statistical sense (i.e. not necessarily) They have such a thing, or are you kidding. Sorry to be so ...
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to redeem EE savings bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 417

Re: When to redeem EE savings bonds

1) when you need the cash. 2) when they pay an interest rate below market. 3) when it makes sense from a tax-optimization point of view. For instance, when redeeming some can be done within a 0%, or however lower tax bracket. 4) the first day of the month 5) sell first those that pay the lowest rate...
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard predict that International stocks will outperform US stocks 10 years out?
Replies: 14
Views: 1908

Re: Why does Vanguard predict that International stocks will outperform US stocks 10 years out?

fortfun wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 3:48 pm
Why does Vanguard predict that International stocks will outperform US stocks 10 years out?
They have run their proprietary VCMM simulation many times and results point out to such a conclusion in a statistical sense (i.e. not necessarily)
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

Agree on all and I may add: projected bond yields are low. That is a further challenge for the balanced 60/40, or 50/50, portfolio. The "4% SWR" may not be as safe when expected returns are lower than 4%. In the Trinity study the average return of their 50/50 portfolio was well over 4% real. Using V...
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

Can someone explain (in a general way) logarithmic scale in this context to someone who has forgotten Algebra II? Thanks! If you plot your assets running value on a linear scale, earning $1000 looks just the same when your initial capital is $1,000 (100% gain) and when it is $1,000,000 (0.1% gain)....
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

Not true with earnings having to grow over 5%, yes that is if we get 4% annual PE contraction but you're assuming we contract to a very low PE. To begin with, P/E=15 is not "very low" by any stretch of imagination. It is actually very close to its historical average. Granted, with treasuries yieldi...
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Indices Research - Is Low Volatility Anomaly Universal?
Replies: 11
Views: 862

Re: S&P Indices Research - Is Low Volatility Anomaly Universal?

Indeed, a phenomenon not encountered before 2008. Mmmh... I wonder if monetary policies may have something to do with it...
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

That remark about inflation is irrelevant. You're using a number that doesn't reflect inflation by only referencing real GDP. Whether there's high or low ibflation is irrelevant I assume 2% real GDP growth so nominal GDP grows 2% above inflation. I did not mention inflation at all. There seems to b...
by Thesaints
Fri May 24, 2019 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate Planning question risk of DNA services with half brother relatives filing against estate
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Estate Planning question risk of DNA services with half brother relatives filing against estate

I wanted to do per Capita as oppose to per Stripes which means everyone gets an equal share, per stirpe . Sure, do per capita. What is stopping you ? since this is my first will ever, I am ok making mistakes, it looks like trusts are the way to go. It is not like you get a do over after the fact. N...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

The market eventually returned 15%, which is within their mid-range of forecast, although on the high side. Well done, VCMM !
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to buy ETFs for the 1st time
Replies: 23
Views: 1569

Re: Looking to buy ETFs for the 1st time

Hi all, I have a few questions about ETFs 1. I have read on here that it is not a good idea to buy ETF after hours especially for low volume ETFs. What about highly traded ones? It is never a good idea. Why would you want to do that ? 2. I was looking to buy SPDR® Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF(SPE...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?
Replies: 21
Views: 1430

Re: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?

FoolStreet wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:22 pm
No, you should buy a Tesla Model 3! Splurge the extra 5-10k and offset it with the tax credits.
Driving a car with the interiors of a Fiat Panda, plus an iPad, is hardly "splurging"..
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate Planning question risk of DNA services with half brother relatives filing against estate
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Estate Planning question risk of DNA services with half brother relatives filing against estate

which the attorney said this should go to people. To begin with it is you who should tell the attorney how much each beneficiary should get and not vice-versa. He/she can advise you on how to do it most efficiently. If you put your RE properties into a trust (I understand to the benefits of two spe...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?
Replies: 21
Views: 1430

Re: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?

You are correct in that automatic transmission cars are pretty much the same.
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

5% EPS growth way too low. Nominal GDP is what matters not real. So if we had hyperinflation everyone would be a millionaire ? Which is probably true, but it doesn't mean what you think. That's assumed to be 4% in vanguard article. You're forgetting buybacks if you are going to talk EPS growth so 3...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

wootwoot wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:51 pm
Does this invalidate the last Vanguard 10 year forecast that was posted here?

https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FA863418.pdf
Isn't that about the same message ?
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate Planning question risk of DNA services with half brother relatives filing against estate
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Estate Planning question risk of DNA services with half brother relatives filing against estate

leave them each $1 if you want to help prevent lawsuits. :confused :confused pannie if I would know their english spelling names and where they live perhaps, thank you for your suggestion. No! Don't! Unless you think they are going to be happy with a dollar. At best what you will accomplish is to i...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

They are clearly a victim of CAPE. RIP. Valuations would need to fall dramatically in ten years to get these returns. Let's see: - Current P/E: 21 - P/E in 2029: 15 (it was below 15 in 2012, for instance) That's equivalent to a -3.3% annualized. Dividends: 2% Which brings us to a -1.3% Earnings gro...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?
Replies: 20
Views: 1105

Re: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?

SovereignInvestor wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 6:18 pm
Thesaints wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 6:03 pm
SovereignInvestor wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 6:02 pm
In the US even if there was no total earnings growth there would be around 3% on a per share basis due to buybacks.
3% over 50 years ??
3% annually
Yes, 3% annually over 50 years ? That's an awful lot of buybacks.
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1333

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

Thegame14 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 6:11 pm
actually the question ahs gotten completely de-railed, the only question was when considering my overall AA, do I include my mortgage with my investments or not....
and the answer is "it depends". It depends on what you are "considering" your overall AA for.
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 41
Views: 2976

Re: Any option traders?

This is an option traders thread, so I'm hoping to get some feedback. I invested some time learning about options, and came to the following conclusions. Option can serve three functions: 1)generate income. Right now, I don't need income from my portfolio. However, I came to the conclusion that if ...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8459

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

Basically they're calling for 4% annual nominal GDP growth and with 5% shareholder current yield the only way to get only 5% nominal returns is to have valuatons contract 4% per year or about 35%. So that would mean the S&P is trading at 11 x forward earnings in 10 years and would have 7.5% shareho...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?
Replies: 21
Views: 1430

Re: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?

I think the picture proves my point, but that's just me. :)
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate Planning question risk of DNA services with half brother relatives filing against estate
Replies: 48
Views: 3850

Re: Estate Planning question risk of DNA services with half brother relatives filing against estate

retire2022 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 6:05 pm
Gill not that I don't believe your statement do you have any case law or principle this is base on? sorry to make you work.
It is more like that there is no law prescribing minimum inheritance quotas for members of the family.
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?
Replies: 20
Views: 1105

Re: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?

SovereignInvestor wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 6:02 pm
In the US even if there was no total earnings growth there would be around 3% on a per share basis due to buybacks.
3% over 50 years ??
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?
Replies: 20
Views: 1105

Re: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?

Leveraged100to1 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 1:12 pm
What would it take for all the world's major stock indices like the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 to be lower 50 years from now than they are today?
No earnings growth ?
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?
Replies: 21
Views: 1430

Re: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?

BuckyBadger wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 4:52 pm
There's nothing safer than a Volvo.
Nor anything more boring. The young man just got a taste; let's not crush his dreams so soon. What he drives will be part of how the rest of the world perceives him, and by that I mean 20-something girls.
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting much closer to retirement... now what
Replies: 13
Views: 2235

Re: Getting much closer to retirement... now what

I am a Washington State Employee, and will be 61 in December. I have money in the States' Deferred Compensation Program, and basically just put it there and forget about it. The primary fund I believe is composed of 70%stocks, and a small portion of my investment (15% goes into a savings pool. I th...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?
Replies: 21
Views: 1430

Re: Should I buy a used BMW 330E 2018?

I’ve leased a 2018 BMW 330E Hybrid for about a year now. I love the car and I’m thinking of buying the same car (used 2018 BMW 330E Hybrid) . I’m a new driver (only been driving for a year) as previously I lived in a place with very reliable public transportation. Stats Age: 31 Income: 130k a year ...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter
Replies: 76
Views: 8687

Re: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter

Not sure whether you are being sarcastic here; it wasn’t mother’s money; I think we can all agree that even if the stepfather paid all the insurance premiums, it was the girl's mother who did most of the work to get the money. The OP doesn't sound like he would be missing those 400k too much. I'd u...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Proposed changes to 401(k) and IRAs]
Replies: 67
Views: 2785

Re: Looks like the Stretch IRA is about to be killed

It is simply immoral for a Government to tax its citizens on inheritances received and lottery winnings ! 8-)
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1333

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

and what if rates to up to 6% and MM starts paying 4% return? or inflation goes up to 4%? mortgage rates are at historic lowes, they used to be in the teens and even 20% historically, if rates go up just to 6-7% id then be making money on the mortgage. That's a big "if" and and even bigger "just". ...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1333

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

bloom2708 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 2:47 pm
Just because. Feel free to propose different/alternate numbers.
Numbers have to be selected on an individual basis. You don't go to a store and buy a suit sized "between 40R and 48S", do you ? Although chances are you will fit in one of those.
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs, ranked by diversification benefit
Replies: 66
Views: 4494

Re: Vanguard ETFs, ranked by diversification benefit

The Fed is essentially guaranteeing a risk parity portfolio at this point. The only time they will increase the Fed funds rate (raising short term rates), and unwind their balance sheet (increasing long term rates) is when stocks are increasing. They have to keep cash and short term treasuries at a...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1333

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

bloom2708 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 2:38 pm
Do not count your house or mortgage in your asset allocation. It just muddles things.
Or not.
Stay between Age - 10 and Age - 20 for your bond/fixed allocation and you will be fine.
Why ?
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1333

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

Thegame14 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 2:30 pm
right but if I owe $270K and inflation is 3% per year, doesn't that mean my real interest rate is 1.25%?
I guess your mortgage rate is 4.25% ? You can account for inflation that way, but then you also have to deflate the rest of your assets 3%/year, just to be fair.
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Frozen by uncertainty, really want to unfreeze
Replies: 34
Views: 3291

Re: Frozen by uncertainty, really want to unfreeze

We have no savings account, just one checking account, which is currently sitting @ $34k and fluctuates between $25k and $45k depending on vacations and bonus payouts. I have been holding steady like this for well over 4 years. I don't feel like I'm saving enough for retirement, and I don't feel li...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1333

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

It depends on what you are using your AA for. If it is to estimate expected return, mortgage is a bond with negative interest rate. It also is a bond that decreases in value with each payment (unless you are in an "interest only" phase). As such it will count less and less in your AA. Alternatively,...
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 1:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter
Replies: 76
Views: 8687

Re: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter

GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 2:04 pm
I think you have a sound plan. This is a very nice gesture on your part.
Yeah. Giving the girl her mother's money is the epitome of generosity.
by Thesaints
Thu May 23, 2019 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Tesla Going To Survive?
Replies: 99
Views: 6710

Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

A company can produce wonderful products and still go bankrupt.
by Thesaints
Tue May 21, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer speed question which computer is faster and why?
Replies: 22
Views: 1519

Re: Computer speed question which computer is faster and why?

The two computers are not the same model, in fact they have different CPU’s Clock speed is the same, but processing speed depends also on the bus speed, the RAM speed and the cache size. Besides processor speed, depending on what application one is interested into, more specs assume higher or lower ...
by Thesaints
Tue May 21, 2019 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs, ranked by diversification benefit
Replies: 66
Views: 4494

Re: Vanguard ETFs, ranked by diversification benefit

in the past ten years the only decorrelation between stocks and LT treasuries was observable on a short time scale (i.e. small movements). QED I wish I could find an investable asset that had as low a correlation with stocks as the correlation between the strength with which people can hold an idea...
by Thesaints
Tue May 21, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Legal Advice Needed: Immigration and employment question
Replies: 13
Views: 1231

Re: Legal Advice Needed: Immigration and employment question

Bogleheads I am an educator working at a school that serves families who are extremely low income, many of whom are recent immigrants. One of our wonderful family volunteers is losing her “job” (where she gets paid under the table next week), a restaurant that is shutting down. We’d like to hire he...