Search found 3431 matches

by Thesaints
Thu May 07, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5915

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

That's explain a lot of post here, people do not get it. Nobody in his mind, as of monday 7th may 2020 would lump sum anything more thant 2 times is yearly earnings in current economic conditions at current market price. That would be a HUGE risk nobody here commenting about is ACTUALLY DOINGT it. ...
by Thesaints
Thu May 07, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"
Replies: 152
Views: 10790

Re: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"

Any rule that uses (only) age to determine one's optimal allocation to bonds is flawed beyond salvation.
However, "square root of the logarithm of one's age minus 10 elevated to the power of one's zodiacal sign divided by 20" could be good for most.
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book suggestions for a 16 year old
Replies: 47
Views: 2225

Re: Book suggestions for a 16 year old

- Fooled by randomness
- Against the gods
- The intelligent investor (modern edition, annotated by Jason Zweig).
- A random walk down Wall Street
by Thesaints
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Earnings during Recent Bear Markets
Replies: 46
Views: 3311

Re: Dividends and Earnings during Recent Bear Markets

Bar a miracle, we are not going to be lucky.
In 2008 airlines did not shut down.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxation at state level of accrued market discount of US Savings Bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 184

Re: Taxation at state level of accrued market discount of US Savings Bonds

There is no "market" for savings bonds. Not sure what you are referring to.
Interest is accrued to the bond reimbursement value and it's free of state taxes.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “Courage! We have been here before”
Replies: 20
Views: 2155

Re: “Courage! We have been here before”

I'm not old enough, but during the Cuban crisis I don't think that one third of the US population was forced to stay home for weeks.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]
Replies: 39
Views: 1711

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]

Unless one starts a thread on Bogleheads documenting his/her nefarious activities, selling and buying securities for the sole end of accumulating capital losses, how could ever the IRS deny taking a loss on a transaction satisfying the wash sale rule, even if they wanted too ?
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]
Replies: 39
Views: 1711

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]

Tax loss harvesting does not exist. People buy and sell stocks and, sometimes, realize capital losses. When those capital losses can be used to reduce taxable income is regulated by the wash sale rule. Unless the rule applies, it is 100% kosher to deduct the loss in the prescribed form. What are we...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum or DCA $30,000 in a volatile market?
Replies: 43
Views: 2667

Re: Lump sum or DCA $30,000 in a volatile market?

The OP should ask himself the same question on February 24th 2020. The answer would come effortlessy.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]
Replies: 39
Views: 1711

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]

Tax loss harvesting does not exist. People buy and sell stocks and, sometimes, realize capital losses. When those capital losses can be used to reduce taxable income is regulated by the wash sale rule. Unless the rule applies, it is 100% kosher to deduct the loss in the prescribed form. What are we ...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short
Replies: 19
Views: 1729

Re: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short

Coronavirus would have had the same damage in any economy. It has nothing to do with bubble bursting.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can Real Estate Replace Bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1117

Re: Can Real Estate Replace Bonds?

The defining characteristic of fixed income, is not that it is income , but that it is fixed . Excellent. These discussions always seem to arise from the idea that because someone pays someone money and that bonds pay someone money that somehow the first someone is a bond. That seemingly applies to...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 5163

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

On the other hand, stocks are now much more risky than in January, so by decreasing stock holdings they may have stayed closer to their initial allocation in terms of risk. I'm not sure the above is logical. Stocks could potentially drop by 50% (or even more) from either today's levels or January's...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why decreasing stock allocation after a big dip can sometimes make sense
Replies: 131
Views: 6035

Re: Why decreasing stock allocation after a big dip can sometimes make sense

We choose our AA on the basis of risk connected with that portfolio (or at least we should). If stocks become a lot riskier, “staying the course” means revising the AA in order to match the previously determined optimal risk. i.e. sell stocks. People seem to be defining riskier on completely differ...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]
Replies: 39
Views: 1711

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]

I don’t know what this “tax loss harvesting” thing is supposed to be. Maybe yet another one of those apotropaic rituals popular on on-line communities.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IPS - Rebalancing Strategy - Feedback
Replies: 22
Views: 751

Re: IPS - Rebalancing Strategy - Feedback

Stocks are a lot riskier than in january, even after a 30% drop, because nobody has the foggiest idea of the full impact of the virus. Maybe next March everything will be back to normality (in relative terms), maybe we will have an epochal tragedy with millions of deaths and the economy crippled for...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not play the reverse ETFs now
Replies: 24
Views: 1450

Re: Why not play the reverse ETFs now

For the sake of efficiency, rather than waiting for the market to go up in order to buy an inverse index, I’d suggest to buy the index if the market goes down and the sell it after it goes up, and buy the inverse index when the market goes up, to sell it when it goes down. You will gain regardless o...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?
Replies: 28
Views: 2841

Re: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?

Same concerns as I had in 2008, will the trillion-dollars worth of stimulus package lead to the US currency collapse? I don’t even know what a “currency collapse” means or what that would even look like. Can you tell me? It is when you go shopping at Target and they want to be paid in Euro. :)
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 134
Views: 7857

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

drk wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:31 pm
Thesaints wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:18 pm Investors with significant assets could’t care less about “yearly expenses”.
You should read The Millionaire Next Door.
Heck no ! That’s porn literature, financially speaking.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ? real withdrawals and tips
Replies: 17
Views: 880

Re: ? real withdrawals and tips

KEotSK66 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:55 pm TheSaints and dbr, thanks

running my portfolio down is not something i want to do although i realize some retirees don't mind doing so
It will be tough to find an investment that lets you spend for free...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can Real Estate Replace Bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1117

Re: Can Real Estate Replace Bonds?

If you buy a rental property and after a while its value drops, can you invoke a default clause and ask your money back from whoever sold the property to you ? If the answer is “no”, then bonds and RE are two different things. Well you can sell it for loss :happy , similar to bond value dropping, n...
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IPS - Rebalancing Strategy - Feedback
Replies: 22
Views: 751

Re: IPS - Rebalancing Strategy - Feedback

How did you pick your numbers ?

Regardless, it looks like your philosophy is that after a huge drop stocks become less risky, therefore you increase their portion in your AA to maintain total portfolio risk constant.
Sometimes that is true. This really looks like a case when it is not.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 5163

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

I’m not sure how a 30% drop in the S&P may have caused your AA to change by 1%... actually, I know: your AA is something like 5/95.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can Real Estate Replace Bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1117

Re: Can Real Estate Replace Bonds?

If you buy a rental property and after a while its value drops, can you invoke a default clause and ask your money back from whoever sold the property to you ?
If the answer is “no”, then bonds and RE are two different things.
by Thesaints
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why decreasing stock allocation after a big dip can sometimes make sense
Replies: 131
Views: 6035

Re: Why decreasing stock allocation after a big dip can sometimes make sense

We choose our AA on the basis of risk connected with that portfolio (or at least we should).
If stocks become a lot riskier, “staying the course” means revising the AA in order to match the previously determined optimal risk. i.e. sell stocks.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to Bonds
Replies: 2
Views: 250

Re: New to Bonds

I've never been a bond investor. I understand that with stocks it's advantageous to buy low. However, I'm not so clear about bonds. It's my understanding that the current yield is what it is, minus default rate. Meaning that there's never a chance of earning a higher yield than the current yield at...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short
Replies: 19
Views: 1729

Re: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short

It’s still Q1, and the fall doesn’t end until Q4, so whatever you make of his prediction, his understanding of the calendar could be just fine. Q1 is now and is deeply recessed. same for Q2 and Q3. The fall is in Q4, when market recovers according to Davis. "A few quarters" is not 2 or 3 quarters. ...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ? real withdrawals and tips
Replies: 17
Views: 880

Re: ? real withdrawals and tips

KEotSK66 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:50 pm so you maintain purchasing power as long as you're not spending ?????
Yes. You maintain purchasing power as long as you don't purchase.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does $2 Trillion Come from?
Replies: 30
Views: 4447

Re: Where does $2 Trillion Come from?

In general, where money comes from is an interesting question. There is far more money than there is physical currency. This is often a consequence of a fractional reserve banking system: Person A deposits $10,000 in a bank. Bank loans the $10,000 to Person B, who buys a car. Car dealer deposits th...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short
Replies: 19
Views: 1729

Re: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short

Thesaints wrote: There are only two quarters until the fall. Maybe Joe Davis has a different year in mind ? No, I believe 2020 is the year he has in mind. The fall ends 12/21/2020 which is almost 9 months away. The second quarter will start very soon, on the heels of an all time record of weekly un...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short
Replies: 19
Views: 1729

Re: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short

From Joe Davis at Vanguard who many criticized late last year for predicting a 50% chance of a recession in 2020. Sounded a a prescient note of caution at odds with the pervasive market optimism at the time. I agreed with him then and once again IMO he's right on target. No one knows the future wit...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starting Investment as Undergraduate Student
Replies: 3
Views: 234

Re: Starting Investment as Undergraduate Student

I've been reading the getting started guides and reading up on the theory, but almost all of them encourage an investment strategy and a goal... However the financial position I am in now does not demand any 'needs', especially as I plan to consider my retirements and other required expenses outsid...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 134
Views: 7857

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

Check any fortune 400 list and calculate the fraction of those on it who had no money earlier in their life. Most definitely even those on the list who did not, didn't make their money out of "living below their means". So, a list of 400 people, eh? Not much of a number. I would wager there are man...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 134
Views: 7857

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

Check any fortune 400 list and calculate the fraction of those on it who had no money earlier in their life.
Most definitely even those on the list who did not, didn't make their money out of "living below their means".
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Frequency Trading
Replies: 10
Views: 629

Re: High Frequency Trading

For the last few weeks, there have often been strong moves up or down at the end of the day. I don’t know much about it but I suspect these are the result of high frequency trading algorithms closing out positions. Not really. I’m curious what the rest of you think about this activity - what positi...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 134
Views: 7857

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

Sandtrap wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:28 pm
Thesaints wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:18 pm Investors with significant assets could’t care less about “yearly expenses”.
Significant assets are often earned penny by penny over a lifetime of hard work, vigilance, frugality, and so forth.

j :happy
More often they are not.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any of you not rebalance?
Replies: 57
Views: 3117

Re: Do any of you not rebalance?

Apparently 90% of Vanguard customers did not.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309785
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 134
Views: 7857

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

LilyFleur wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:13 pm I have no idea what "significant assets" means.
You have so much that living expenses are irrelevant.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does $2 Trillion Come from?
Replies: 30
Views: 4447

Re: Where does $2 Trillion Come from?

...and they cannot buy them at auction...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics"
Replies: 44
Views: 4091

Re: "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics"

Past data is absolutely meaningless, in this case.
Yet, people like to find comfort in any way they can.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Denatured Ethyl Alcohol for Hand Sanitizer
Replies: 9
Views: 663

Re: Denatured Ethyl Alcohol for Hand Sanitizer

You can buy at the store labelled as "rubbing alcohol". Nothing toxic for the skin, but it will dry it to a higher degree than those 60/65% alcohol gels.
For occasional use there is no issue at all.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 134
Views: 7857

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

Surely it greatly depends on one’s definition of “significant”.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 5163

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

If they have not traded, their asset allocation has veered towards a larger bonds component. It would seem like they have not stayed the course in terms of AA. On the other hand, stocks are now much more risky than in January, so by decreasing stock holdings they may have stayed closer to their init...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 134
Views: 7857

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

Investors with significant assets could’t care less about “yearly expenses”.
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 155
Views: 16133

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020. This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am. Maybe. Or maybe not. In the latter case your post will be forgotten and you'll get the chance of making another baseless forecast. As I'm concerned...
by Thesaints
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times:] I Became a Disciplined Investor Over 40 Years. The Virus Broke Me In 40 Days.
Replies: 56
Views: 10021

Re: I Became a Disciplined Investor Over 40 Years. The Virus Broke Me In 40 Days.

It's a good article. It shows the dangers of engaging in activities of which we have no notion. The writer calls himself "disciplined", but it is only the sort of discipline the adepts of some esoteric sects, or extremely superstitious people, have. He defined rules and countrrules and exceptions to...
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stock market goes up 5x every 15 years?
Replies: 14
Views: 1340

Re: stock market goes up 5x every 15 years?

From Jan 1 1930 to December 31 2019 the S&P 500 generated a 9.82% compounded annual growth rate A 9.82% CAGR means your money would be about 4.1x it’s original amount after 15 years Your friend wasn’t far off (or may have used a separate set of assumptions). These number exclude the impact of infla...
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I am 16, Bogleheads help me be rich one day
Replies: 114
Views: 8049

Re: I am 16, Bogleheads help me be rich one day

MiloMoney wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:02 pm I will keep that in mind. The idea of graduate school is not very attractive to me.
Trust your luck, then.

BTW "the magic of compounding" works both ways: if you bother doing the calculation you'll see that avocado on a toast today is eventually gonna cost you $15,000.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stock market goes up 5x every 15 years?
Replies: 14
Views: 1340

Re: stock market goes up 5x every 15 years?

On average Denver gets 1.5" of snow every 10 days, all year round.
by Thesaints
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 358
Views: 34971

Re: It's Not Different This Time

99 times out of 100 those who nailed a financial move from "seeing something that the market had not priced" were simply lucky.