Search found 1607 matches

by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?
Replies: 77
Views: 8798

Re: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?

Of course it does not, for most but not all bond funds, as I detailed in my post above . PJW But that's just an accounting trick. Bond funds with monthly payout set dividend payments aside, so it does not appear in the NAV but it is liquidated on a pro-rated basis when one sells mid-month. For inst...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple-minded sayings?
Replies: 37
Views: 3121

Re: Simple-minded sayings?

The first refers to rebalancing — which means having the nerve to buy stocks after a crash when others are afraid to. That's a rather free interpretation, IMO. One has to rebalance regardless of whether (other) investors are being greedy, or fearful. I see the aphorism as somewhat implying that thi...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hubby soon to be laid off
Replies: 74
Views: 7855

Re: Hubby soon to be laid off

Would have to agree, 3600/yr for homeowner's insurance sounds crazy high It's about 0.5% of the value. Is that high? What coverage do they have ? My insurance is a little more than 1k for double the value. Of course land value is not insured, but I can't see how the OP valuation may be almost all b...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hubby soon to be laid off
Replies: 74
Views: 7855

Re: Hubby soon to be laid off

If you want to stay, refinance your mortgage to a 30 year. That will cut your mortgage payment by 1/3 even with a higher interest rate. Let your heirs pay off the mortgage when they sell the house. If your husband gets another job you can aggressively pay it off. If you go that route the extra inte...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

As another aside, I have a hard time believing that established real estate properties have a return close to stocks. Risk and return and linked, and established rent paying properties have low risk, or at least lower than that of most individual stocks. Now, if we are talking about something in tu...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Watching for Dividend Ex-Date - any tips?
Replies: 13
Views: 988

Re: Watching for Dividend Ex-Date - any tips?

alex_686 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:56 pm
No. The only way a fund can pay out a "Return of Capital" is if one of the underlying stocks paid out a ROC.
I don't think that's correct: managed payout funds can use ROC to keep distributions at their stipulated level, for instance.
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:40 pm
Unleveraged rental properties have fairly similar risk and return characteristics to stocks IME.
To one stock, or to all of them ?
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hubby soon to be laid off
Replies: 74
Views: 7855

Re: Hubby soon to be laid off

You've got a little more than a million of capital and you both are still relatively young. The life expectancy at that age is around 20 years, but that's just the average. It would be prudent to budget double that. The present situation with low yields is the most unfavourable and, combined with th...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Watching for Dividend Ex-Date - any tips?
Replies: 13
Views: 988

Re: Watching for Dividend Ex-Date - any tips?

The fund can certainly pay more and reclassify the excess as "return of capital", it is paying less than may cause loss of status.
However, supplemental distributions can be made in the following year.
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Taxation is unfavourable compared to stock market returns. It is not a pure investment, since it requires your own work to manage the property. Finally, it is arguable riskier, due to concentration alone (one rental property vs. 8000 different stocks). I'd say it is an inferior investment for indivi...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple-minded sayings?
Replies: 37
Views: 3121

Re: Simple-minded sayings?

"Be greedy when others are fearful" and vice-versa is also market timing, or at a minimum one is assuming to be smarter than the market.
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Non-US] Advice on replacing Vanguard FTSE All-World with iShares (MSCI World + MSCI EM IMI)
Replies: 17
Views: 908

Re: Advice on replacing Vanguard FTSE All-World with iShares (MSCI World + MSCI EM IMI)

Since those are ETF’s, in principle going with the two funds solution you double transaction costs. Additionally, tracking error (with respect to the total global index) will likely increase. I believe these are small effects, however they are there and the ~0.05% difference in ER is also a small ef...
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11892

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

Safely financing one’s retirement is not necessarily the same target as maximizing one’s portfolio return for a given risk.
by Thesaints
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon
Replies: 187
Views: 24732

Re: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon

What about this “trusted individual” designation on the account ? Does it replace, maybe only in part, a PoA ?
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HELOC as a bonds replacement for drawing down from in a downturn?
Replies: 36
Views: 2359

Re: HELOC as a bonds replacement for drawing down from in a downturn?

The purpose of bonds as I understand it, boils down to 2 fundamental purposes 1. To avoid drawing down equities when they are low 2. To help psychologically avoid the selling equities when they are low Well, not really. There are many people who are not drawing down a single cent, actually they are...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: General 2018 Tax Question
Replies: 33
Views: 3758

Re: General 2018 Tax Question

libralibra wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:24 pm
I know many bogleheads still file by hand, same as my dad, so there will be some learning curve for sure.
When Turbotax will cost 71 cents I'll stop filing by mail. :happy
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Philanthropy 101
Replies: 13
Views: 894

Re: Philanthropy 101

Laura is truly great! No wonder she won the http://www.laaf.org Woman of the Year award three years in a row.
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds. Why? (vs. cds)
Replies: 59
Views: 4740

Re: Bonds. Why? (vs. cds)

CD, just like cash, have zero correlation with stock returns by definition. That would not be true for brokered CDs where the value of the CD on the secondary market) rises and falls with interest rates, would it? Wouldn't they behave like treasuries, rising in value when rates fall and falling in ...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage vs investing?
Replies: 20
Views: 2098

Re: Paying off mortgage vs investing?

Generally, you would compare the total after-tax cost of mortgage (i.e. including mandatory insurance, etc.) to the expected after-tax return of the investment. However, you also have to factor in: - Depleting cash reserves to pay a mortgage is not a good idea, since should you need cash afterwards,...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2595

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

Since bond market and stock market are not perfectly uncorrelated, one opens the door to the possibility of stocks volatility and higher volatility of longer termed bonds to line up unfavorably.
It is perhaps a matter of avoiding risk tails, rather than just risk.
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: General 2018 Tax Question
Replies: 33
Views: 3758

Re: General 2018 Tax Question

If you mean Foreign Tax Credit ?? ,it's Sch. 3. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] Wow! It's a schedule mostly containing empty space. Paper producers will be thrilled and I guess the stamp cost for mailing in is going to be higher. Most of my 1040 is blank and I don't even know what those line...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2595

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

Skip the source and just go to the logic of it. Suppose I have a rolling 10 year Treasury bond ladder. Right now the *average* yield of my portfolio would essentially equal what the 5 year note is yielding, which is 2.96%. However, the return of a bond from issuance to redemption is determined by t...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Real estate business is extremely local as is inflation so I’m not sure what good the generalization is. A generalization I know is real and have observed is that real estate can and does allow average people to retire sooner than stock market investing with more effort up front. The real estate ma...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: General 2018 Tax Question
Replies: 33
Views: 3758

Re: General 2018 Tax Question

Foreign Tax Refund... must be Schedule 1 as well.
We will be able to mail the new Form 1040 as a postcard, but all the supporting docs will require the usual large envelope...

Why did they bother. We already had 1040EZ for those who only have to write name, address and a few more numbers.
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I am going to guess you were reading about the Case-Schiller index, which shows that family homes have had principle return of 0 to 2% over inflation. St spastically pretty close to zero. Well the 30-year TIPS pays 1% over inflation, so 2% over is not that bad these days. Also, please don't use pub...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?
Replies: 77
Views: 8798

Re: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?

S_Track wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:51 pm
Secondly, does the NAV drop in a bond fund when it pays interests?
Of course it does. In fact, the drop is even closer to the disbursed interest than for stocks.
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Not if your time is valueless. That's time you could be using to defend real estate as an investment on Bogleheads. :twisted: Personally, I would never get in the RE business and whoever asked me I advised against. However the OP was asking whether the expected return is around inflation, or higher...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

whodidntante wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:58 pm
Yeah, that's the thing. Insurance policies have exclusions.
:confused

From your description I got the impression of a crack house in Brightmoor, Detroit.
A rental property does not have to be necessarily like that.
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?
Replies: 172
Views: 8682

Re: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?

Perhaps, but allbirds and hoodie sweaters are so 2017... You wanna be kewl in the valley.
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

whodidntante wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:54 pm
Is your "business" going to be more efficient than an average REIT?
Does not have to be more efficient in order for me to get a higher profit margin, when I'm the company CEO, CFO, secretary, concierge, etc...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Real estate is also risky but with the added bonus of upkeep. It seems there is always something to do. Most years it's toilets, faucets, exhaust fans, landscaping, lighting etc. Sometimes it's furnaces, carpet, structural issues, roofs, etc. And you also get to deal with renters, insurance, taxes,...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Watty wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:51 pm
There will be exceptions of course but most houses from 1890 were torn down long ago or are pretty decrepit now.
Well, then also Exxon's oil wells are not the same they were in the 80's...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

galeno wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:41 pm
The easiest way answer your question is to use the SEC Yield for a passive REIT like Schwab's US REIT ETF™ (SCHH) with a SEC Yield = 3.42%.
But that does not include the compensation of all those people running the REIT.
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2595

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

Side note: on average, a constant maturity portfolio of intermediate bonds has historically had a total return over five years that is about 10-20% higher than the portfolio's initial YTM. Can you quote a source for that ? I had to run my own analysis, but it wasn’t complicated. I’ll write it up wh...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?
Replies: 172
Views: 8682

Re: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?

cal_orchid wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:40 pm
The answer is very industry-specific, but I have seen a lot of colleagues wear nice leather sneakers (eccos) or dark-colored Allbirds (ubiquitous in Silicon Valley) on business casual days.
Not anymore.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/9/14 ... shion-tech
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: General 2018 Tax Question
Replies: 33
Views: 3758

Re: General 2018 Tax Question

retiredjg wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:48 pm
But the important thing is the 1040 form is now postcard sized.
Are you being ironic ? :)
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3997

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I read on the Economist just before the 2008 crash that housing prices historically grow just a bit over inflation.
If you add renting on top of that it should be more than "just a notch".
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking Over Management of $7M Portfolio - Need Review/Help Allocating
Replies: 50
Views: 4129

Re: Taking Over Management of $7M Portfolio - Need Review/Help Allocating

So, are you the trustee ? Has your grandmother given you power of attorney ? Has she given you the passwords ?
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantage of Rebalancing for different asset allocations
Replies: 25
Views: 1521

Re: Advantage of Rebalancing for different asset allocations

If a 70/30 AA has higher expected return of a 100/0 AA, then let me take the “70” and allocate it 70/30. I think this is where you are tripping up. A 100/0 has a higher expected return than a 70/30 portfolio, but it may have a lower geometric expected return . You are also assuming a liner relation...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS yields good yet?
Replies: 15
Views: 1528

Re: Are TIPS yields good yet?

Of course people can ignore whatever they want to ignore. They can carry the bond fund on their books at its original NAV at purchase if they want. That would be bad accounting, because they can't sell shares at that price, nor do they have any assurance that at a set future date that price will be...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?
Replies: 16
Views: 1512

Re: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?

Well, if all BBB bonds have about the same risk (which is kind of what the concept of rating implies), then the table tells you that Ford bond has between 5 and 10% chance of default. That's all the table says. It is very true that our personal risk assessment has to analyze both cases, the one with...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1298

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

Is the graph to be interpreted by subtracting 0.04% per year from the S&P and 2+20 from the hedge fund ?
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2595

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

an investor who is still saving for a retirement that is still 25+ years away should certainly not be holding short-term bonds in their investment portfolio. That investor should probably not be holding any bonds. The higher CAGR of equity investments over long enough timeframes dwarfs the short-te...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2595

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:54 pm
Thesaints wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:25 am
If bond funds did not existed and one had to use individual bonds, wouldnn’t make a lot of sense to pick maturity dates close to one’s time horizon ?
...
Only if one has a known obligation at some fixed point in the future.
Isn't that the definition of "time horizon" ?
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2595

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

vineviz wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:38 am
Side note: on average, a constant maturity portfolio of intermediate bonds has historically had a total return over five years that is about 10-20% higher than the portfolio's initial YTM.
Can you quote a source for that ?
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking Over Management of $7M Portfolio - Need Review/Help Allocating
Replies: 50
Views: 4129

Re: Taking Over Management of $7M Portfolio - Need Review/Help Allocating

None of the four children have a clue about investing and they all would prefer that I manage it. They prefer this now. A possible scenario could very well be that your portfolio incurs 1M in losses by the time it needs to be distributed. At that point, especially in the case of people who don't ha...
by Thesaints
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unrealized losses in a bond fund
Replies: 12
Views: 952

Re: Unrealized losses in a bond fund

Yes, you are missing out on the losses incurred by the fund. While gains have to be distributed to investors within the same year, with the new legislation losses can be held by the fund indefinitely and used to offset future gains. Yet, that should be rather inconsequential for you, since those bon...