Search found 1303 matches

by Thesaints
Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
Replies: 33
Views: 3063

Re: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging

Really poor analogy. It's not a set of bad incidents and you remove one. It's a bag full of good and bad incidents, with MORE good than bad. By passing on pulling something out of the bag, you miss good things more often than bad. You certainly miss the worst. That's the entire point. Cost averagin...
by Thesaints
Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on which bond funds in taxable
Replies: 2
Views: 340

Re: Advice on which bond funds in taxable

There are state specific funds, in case you want to avoid state taxes as well.
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
Replies: 33
Views: 3063

Re: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging

But what do you do when it's all in? From that point onward I'm exposed to the same risk as the lump sum investor. Seems like you guys don't consider risk as a cumulative variable. You and I can be playing russian roulette. I remove the bullet the first two rounds we play and then play another 8 wi...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I bond ladder
Replies: 22
Views: 3480

Re: I bond ladder

FPL does not necessarily grow as the inflation. Compensation levels are probably a better proxy, therefore you may want to look at the SSA maximum contribution, rather than at the CPI-U. That said, I'm not entirely sure what you are trying to calculate. Asd you wrote, those savings bonds redeemed af...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
Replies: 33
Views: 3063

Re: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging

DCAing over a time period of 12 months or so never made any sense to me. Proponents say it's to protect them from a crash right after investing. But if you're playing the odds that there will be a crash tomorrow, there's an equal chance that there will be a crash 1 year from now. What's stopping yo...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I make sure IRS receives my manual tax return ?
Replies: 74
Views: 4547

Re: How do I make sure IRS receives my manual tax return ?

I used to mail with proof of mailing, which in court is evidence you did mail something, whether the IRS likes it, or not. But now I simply use first class at the post office: their receipt carries the ZIP code you mailed to and is an evidence as good, since it is a unique ZIP code. I also file on t...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?
Replies: 39
Views: 4455

Re: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?

Two times a year, in April and October, after the March and September CPI data is out, one knows how much they will pay for 12 months. If, after factoring in the 3-month penalty and the absence of state taxes, their rate beats whatever internet deposit is paying the most at the moment, I always max ...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
Replies: 33
Views: 3063

Re: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging

Actually, DCA (the real one) says "I don't know whether the market is presently high, or low, but I want to avoid the risk of it being extremely high"
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 89
Views: 3604

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

The CPI doesn’t measure how much you or the average American paid for a BMW or Honda, but the change in price for the BMW or Honda. Actually, "CPI" stands for "Consumer Price Index". It measures monthly the average price of the average consumption for the average family. Inflation is the rate of ch...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans
Replies: 30
Views: 2708

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans

The problem with American pensions is that they are too low, not that they are too high.
We will soon see the effect, when a mass of boomers begins to retire on little or no pensions and will try to draw 4% after inflation from their capital when the 30-year bond yields 3%.
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 89
Views: 3604

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Yes, that is what I want to achieve i.e. get a sense of past rate of inflation using weights that are more applicable for me based on my current consumption. I will dig around the BLS website over the weekend to see what I can find. But you don't need BLS at all! You know what you buy and how much ...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest $950,000 over next 45-90 days
Replies: 27
Views: 3119

Re: How to invest $950,000 over next 45-90 days

Factor1 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:36 pm
The CD would actually be 4 CD's because of the FDIC $250,000 limit.
How can you have 4 different registrations for money still in escrow ? Or is it 4 different banks ?
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest $950,000 over next 45-90 days
Replies: 27
Views: 3119

Re: How to invest $950,000 over next 45-90 days

Remember FDIC limit is 250k and SIPC is 500k, but limited to 250k for cash...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest $950,000 over next 45-90 days
Replies: 27
Views: 3119

Re: How to invest $950,000 over next 45-90 days

I guess the 1.6% CD is not FDIC insured... Given the extremely short ti e span, it does not really make a difference. If you could find a 5% vehicle (and you won’t), total interest would be less than $4,000 before taxes. In your sitiation safety is a lot more important than the insignificant return ...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 689
Views: 55586

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Model 3’s front reminds me of those nurses in Silent Hill...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6461

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

Scooter57’s post reminded me of what I don’t remember who said during the days of the occupy wall street movement. Paraphrasing a little: “If the 99% knew how the 1% lives there would be a revolution”.
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 37
Views: 1829

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Yes.. Now we just have to find real world examples. i'd be interesting in knowing if the volatility theory holds up. And how it's correlated with the long term trend (e.g. maximum drops). I guess it wouldn't be too difficult to get a rough graph on a spreadsheet In the meantime, I guess I can do: 1...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 89
Views: 3604

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

The standard inflation index is a triple average of a price change: it is the average change in price of the average consumption for an average family. Therefore, it averages the price of salmon in Juneau, AK and Mobile, AL. It averages the cost of dentures and the cost of pacifiers. Since the avera...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3733

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

I don't know what you are talking about. I have not taken a vacation to any of these places or anything remote in last several years and my HH income is way over the median U.S income and so is my net worth. I feel poor reading the responses to threads like - can I retire with $4 million in assets ...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 37
Views: 1829

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

I guess you meant: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrifi.pdf I agree that US bonds (or any bonds hedged to dollar) have too much volatility for a EUR portfolio But my original question remains. Where do I find a EUR bond fund (for US broker)? -J That one, yes. I also think there is another one, ...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard notice - retiring our old investment platform
Replies: 50
Views: 6042

Re: vanguard notice - retiring our old investment platform

I have not converted, and I did not receive this notice - but I did notice that all of those "upgrade" buttons are now missing from my accounts. Hopefully forever. This "new platform" business never made any sense for the customer's point of view. They said "nothing will change": if it is true, the...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6461

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

I'm all for frugality, but some of the savings rates of FIRE converts is quite unreasonable. My only debt is a mortgage that an infant could deal with (currently $50,000 @3.5%), and my wife and I would be eating sand if we saved 75% of our income. Frugal = great. Eating leaves off trees and condens...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
Replies: 33
Views: 3063

Re: Bloomberg article on lump sum vs dollar cost averaging

Old debate: lump-sum fans say that most of the times they will achieve superior returns, which is absolutely correct. Cost-averaging folks say they will avoid the worst possible outcomes, which is also absolutely correct.
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3733

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

It is not the "same" international tourism. Maybe they vacation together with the FIRE folks.
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3733

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

We have roughly one car for every person in the US, including newborns. Can China and India ever reach even a third of that level ? Many of us take vacations to Aspen, St. Barts, Paris. Could ever many Chinese and Indians do the same ? True, improving wages in emerging countries will prop up consump...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting job - what to do if getting walked to the door
Replies: 103
Views: 10001

Re: Quitting job - what to do if getting walked to the door

I had an employee who said he is going to company X (our direct competitor). I followed the rules, walked him out the door. He got paid his 2 weeks. C If you get walked out but still paid (total compensation style) it is the same as if you had been not walked out and allowed to remain 2 weeks. What...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6461

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

I'm criticizing mixing philosophy with finance. In finance we set goals denominated in USD. Then, what one chooses to do with their money is not our business. Yet, we say that a path which leads you to less USD is inferior to one that leads you to more, provided they have the same length and same to...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3733

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

The problem is that PPP is not really a good tool for comparing money in different locations. It will tend to overestimate the value of money in poor economies for the same reason why long-term inflation compensation for data from different times generally fails. Additionally, for a lot of products/...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 37
Views: 1829

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Yes.. Now we just have to find real world examples. i'd be interesting in knowing if the volatility theory holds up. And how it's correlated with the long term trend (e.g. maximum drops). I guess it wouldn't be too difficult to get a rough graph on a spreadsheet In the meantime, I guess I can do: 1...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting job - what to do if getting walked to the door
Replies: 103
Views: 10001

Re: Quitting job - what to do if getting walked to the door

Again, would this good manager ready to go above and beyond to give you a personalized reference be the very same one that chases you out as dog as soon as you inform him of a competitor's offer ?
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans
Replies: 30
Views: 2708

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans

I think longinvest understands: he's saying that in order to finance a certain lifestyle, one would have to invest a larger capital if expected returns are low, than he would have if expected returns are high. Therefore, trusting expected return forecasts and drawing logical consequences would push ...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting job - what to do if getting walked to the door
Replies: 103
Views: 10001

Re: Quitting job - what to do if getting walked to the door

If they can release you with no notice, you are under no obligation to give them an advance notice. This is a pretty good percentage of Corporate America - "employment at will" is pretty much the norm. However, expectation of 2 weeks notice is also still the norm. If you are sure you will never ret...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 37
Views: 1829

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

Yes, so you see that currency fluctuations on top of "natural" bonds volatility increase it more than twofold in your example (from 5% to 11%) Whereas, it only increases it marginally on top of stocks (from 20% to 23%). Bonds in a portfolio are there to bring down the total volatility (while trying ...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting job - what to do if getting walked to the door
Replies: 103
Views: 10001

Re: Quitting job - what to do if getting walked to the door

If they can release you with no notice, you are under no obligation to give them an advance notice.
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6461

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

I'm sure cavemen saw people felling trees and building huts as not free. What's the point of all that extra toil if one can adjust himself to live in a cave ?
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3733

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

We need to be careful about relative terms. The poverty line is $460/yr worldwide, but it is more like $20,000/yr. in the US. Limited to the developed world, the trend in the past 25 years has been for the middle class to be declining. Naturally, we can say that ten times more people are emerging fr...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6461

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

Thanks, you have just proved my point that the people criticizing it haven't read it or else don't understand it. Read the definition and discussion of "frugal" in the book being discussed instead of relying on your preconceptions or your misinterpretation of the dictionary definition. You don’t ge...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6461

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

It seems that some of the posters criticizing the book either haven't read it or else haven't understood it if they have read it. The path it suggested is not for everyone but it did not suggest living a substandard, miserable, cheap life, just the opposite. The key word was "frugal". I read the or...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 37
Views: 1829

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

They don’t strictly add; it is the square root of the sum of their squares. And that is only valid if their correlation is zero. For unhedged bonds, a large fraction of total return variance would depend on exchange rates, while that is not true for unhedged stocks. Not only because stock prices hav...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying T-bills ..help needed
Replies: 11
Views: 1156

Re: Buying T-bills ..help needed

The YTM you read off the web will change; your personal YTM will not. Meaning your total earnings are fixed at purchase, if you carry to maturity.
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I want to pay off my mortgage. Am I crazy?
Replies: 54
Views: 5078

Re: I want to pay off my mortgage. Am I crazy?

That is exactly my struggle. Financially it makes no sense to pay off that mortgage. But psychologically it will probably feel great to do it. I posted because I am trying to work through the financial vs psychological conundrum. Seems like you worked through it already: How much sense do those lar...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 21
Views: 1226

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

The real problem with CAPE is that 10 year old earnings should have the same relevance on today's price as the last year's ones. And if I can see how, with all necessary caveats, one may want to entertain the idea that next year's earnings might be correlated to last year's, I won't believe for a mi...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1371001

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Oh Oh. I joked a lot about how this thread was a contrary indicator. With the exception of the August 2015 through February 2016 market correction, it seemed that after this thread would pop up again that the market would rally. Now it seems that every time someone posts after a market rally that t...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5335

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

cash IS bonds
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me with arguments for/against actively managed...
Replies: 34
Views: 1558

Re: Please help me with arguments for/against actively managed...

Active funds, on average, underperform index funds. Yet, in those years of down markets, only some active funds avoid losses.
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS
Replies: 37
Views: 1829

Re: EXPAT: Strategy when invested in USA and spending in EUROS

There is a Vanguard research report of a couple years back showing how currency hedging is not too important for stocks, but it is for bonds.
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Specific Identification - Very Old Transaction
Replies: 7
Views: 418

Re: Specific Identification - Very Old Transaction

Yes, I was thinking the same. I do have paper records, but again, the missing letters are those identifying the shares. I agree the spreadsheet is the way to go, but it is a daunting task to enter everything: 10+ funds, reinvested dividends over 2 decades. The count is already north of 800 entries, ...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1371001

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

They have since its creation, but the recent foray into ZIRP after 2000, and massive QE after 2008 show that the insanity is accelerating. Look at the BOJ for the future direction we are headed. They own 75% of Japanese ETF's and they have become the only buyer of japanese government debt. Whereas ...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6461

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

Our ancestors tended to die a lot younger.
True "happiness is the maximum agreement of aspirations and reality", in the words of a XX Century philosopher. I try not to aspire to too little, though...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Los Angeles a good place long term to live financially?
Replies: 155
Views: 9466

Re: Is Los Angeles a good place long term to live financially?

Guess you have owned your home for a long time.