Search found 1704 matches

by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds with NO REBALANCING grew $10,000 to $26,136 and a CAGR of 10.08% Yeah, but you didn't end up 60/40. You ended up with a lot more stocks and you held a lot more stocks throughout most of those 10 years. i.e. you took on a higher risk. It is a case of apple and ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?
Replies: 42
Views: 2034

Re: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?

There can be no doubt that there is a best portfolio. Especially ex-post. As bonds are concerned, why intermediate duration and not a duration equal to your own time horizon (or half of it) ? After all, if I have $100 to invest in bonds and I need the money 10 years from now, investing $20 in a 1-ye...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare CD to Bond fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1045

Re: How to compare CD to Bond fund

So, corporate bonds it is!
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need Recommendation for Paint Color
Replies: 27
Views: 1268

Re: Need Recommendation for Paint Color

50% bamboo + 50% gainsboro
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds with NO REBALANCING grew $10,000 to $26,136 and a CAGR of 10.08% Yeah, but you didn't end up 60/40. You ended up with a lot more stocks and you held a lot more stocks throughout most of those 10 years. i.e. you took on a higher risk. It is a case of apple and ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?
Replies: 42
Views: 2034

Re: Total Bond Market Index Fund

Total Bond Idx Fund is not the optimal choice for almost nobody. Thesaints: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is now the largest bond fund in the world. Some must like it. Best wishes. Taylor Do you think it is subscribed mostly by individual investors ? I agree that the risk barbell strategy a...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare CD to Bond fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1045

Re: How to compare CD to Bond fund

jeffyscott wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:01 pm
The way I look at it is that about 50% of VBILX is treasuries. A 5 year treasury yields about 2.5%...
The fund's YTM is 3.4%, however...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?
Replies: 42
Views: 2034

Re: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?

A three-fund portfolio is a good place to start. Absolutely! But it is not necessarily the best place to end. Thesaints: Can you expand on your last statement? In my case (I'm 94), the Three Fund Portfolio (or as close as I can get to it without paying capital-gain taxes) has served me well. One of...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Portfolio 1 is the balanced portfolio and its CAGR is better than the weighted average of Portfolio 2 (stocks) and 3 (bonds).

9.38% > 0.6 x 13.13% + 0.4 x 3.31% = 9.20%
To be fair, I suspect dividends have not been reinvested, though.
This for the 2009-2018 period that you picked yourself.
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?
Replies: 42
Views: 2034

Re: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?

For some, sure. For many, it would have to be analyzed.
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

And yet the CAGR of portfolio 1 is > that 0.6 x CAGR of Portfolio 2 + 0.4 x CAGR of Portfolio 3....
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paying (paper) cash for daily transactions
Replies: 83
Views: 3748

Re: Paying (paper) cash for daily transactions

URSnshn wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:14 pm
I wonder if the folks on this forum may skew the results of the OP's question a bit.
My guess would be for them to skew results towards cash use and to dine around 5 pm :)
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Sudden Needs of Cash Do You Prepare For?
Replies: 64
Views: 3591

Re: What Sudden Needs of Cash Do You Prepare For?

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2016 Tax Correction - Worth It? (Likely Investigation)
Replies: 12
Views: 1109

Re: 2016 Tax Correction - Worth It? (Likely Investigation)

tededfred wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:15 pm
It will come out close to $2k w/ exemption and CTC.
So it depends on how much 2k are worth to you.
Here's the problem... I'm rather confident that the birth parents (incorrectly) claimed him for 2016.
That's rather their problem, don't you think ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?
Replies: 42
Views: 2034

Re: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?

snailderby wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:53 pm
A three-fund portfolio is a good place to start.
Absolutely! But it is not necessarily the best place to end.
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Looking at Vanguard's 60/40 balanced index fund VBIAX compared to the 100% stock Total Stock Market VTSAX the returns since 2000 are pretty much the same. That's quite astonishing for a fund that is only 60% in stocks. The power of rebalancing, or is it that stocks yielded about as much as bonds ? ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to construct a decent three asset portfolio before efficient market exchagnes? (Investment theory)
Replies: 24
Views: 1004

Re: Is there a way to construct a decent three asset portfolio before efficient market exchagnes? (Investment theory)

Does the OP mean a society without corporations, or a society were all corporations have gone private ? Not really, I guess post apocalyptic scenarios would be included, but I was mostly talking about markets without public exchanges, in example societies with resources and currency before "exchang...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency
Replies: 47
Views: 2185

Re: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency

Hello, I have one simple question about bond duration. I have heard that, in general, investors have not been adequately compensated in bond yield from the risk taken of increasing maturity. Where did you hear it ? In any case pay attention to the past tense "have been compensated". When you take m...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare CD to Bond fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1045

Re: How to compare CD to Bond fund

I believe the YTM is 3.4% and duration 6.33. I could be off a little on those figures. So expected return is about the same for fund and CD, but you can expect to make that return for about 2 years longer with the bond fund. On the other hand, the CD has zero volatility while the fund will have some.
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Looking at Vanguard's 60/40 balanced index fund VBIAX compared to the 100% stock Total Stock Market VTSAX the returns since 2000 are pretty much the same. That's quite astonishing for a fund that is only 60% in stocks. The power of rebalancing, or is it that stocks yielded about as much as bonds ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2353

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

Thank you for answering. I only do passive investing and currently use the 3-fund portfolio. So I was planning on investing in Vanguard's Total Stock Market, Total Bond Market and Total International. I probably should have clarified that. Each quarter the funds distribute "something", which can ei...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

So, for investors that were 100% US Stocks, their 19 year return was 3% real (with reinvested dividends). But, few people are 100% US Stocks for 19 years. I wonder how things would have been for someone maintaining a specific AA who rebalances? Fewer still were 100% in stocks on January 1st 2000 an...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

You are missing the point. He didn't just choose an arbitrary 20 year period to prove his narrative. He choose THE last 20 years. The last 20 years are not any more special than the 20 years 1998-2017. It is not that one is more representative than the other. Furthermore, why calculate returns from...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2353

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

The most-cited model for withdrawing money from a portfolio seems to be the 4% rule / trinity study. That focused on how to convert a portfolio of stocks and bonds into an inflation-adjusted constant annual income each year for 30 years. It seems like it was geared towards retirees, who wanted to r...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Had I wanted to cherry pick recent return data to show really bad results, I would have picked real US stock returns for the 9 year period from early March 2000 to early March 2009. Real stock market return for nine years (March 2000 through March 2009) annual average return -8.4% cumulative return...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paying (paper) cash for daily transactions
Replies: 83
Views: 3748

Re: Paying (paper) cash for daily transactions

I've had the same $20 bill in my pocket for the last 3 weeks...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 11 days in Europe...Budget and logistical advice please
Replies: 73
Views: 3800

Re: 11 days in Europe...Budget and logistical advice please

Arc de triomphe, Louvre, tour Eiffel. You've got nothing more to see in Paris...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USPS price increase on 1/27/19
Replies: 74
Views: 6580

Re: USPS price increase on 1/27/19

Buying a stamp on the 26th and using it to mail on the 27th will turn into an annualized gain in excess of a million of billions percent !!!
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Covered Calls on Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 623

Re: Covered Calls on Portfolio

Does anyone here sell covered calls on their long-term investments through Vanguard? I am in a lower tax bracket so selling covered calls looks like a decent way to produce some income on long-term holdings but I do not have much experience selling options. Any resources or advice is appreciated. G...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

I chose LT Treasuries because that's what the "Triumph" authors use as their proxy for the US bond market. That's odd, because LT Treasuries are but a small part of the US total bond market. I am simply reporting what the broad capital markets have done over the last 20 years or so. Yep. They have ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Timing
Replies: 11
Views: 884

Re: Vanguard Timing

Thank you for the additional info. My perplexity originates from the fact that I never recall cases when I am pleasantly surprised with Vanguard's reinvestment price. It is very possible that my memory is defective and I tend to recall more "bad" reinvestment prices than "good" ones; books have been...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?
Replies: 42
Views: 2034

Re: Is the 3 fund asset allocation my best option?

To begin with, given the very long time horizon, you would be better served by lengthening the duration of your bond component.
I mean Vanguard Tot Bond Mkt Idx has more than 40% of assets under 5 year maturity. Why would you want those ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Do You Spend The Most On Annually?
Replies: 158
Views: 8227

Re: What Do You Spend The Most On Annually?

Well, taxes and retirement are not really expenses. Retirement is money set aside and taxes is money one actually never had to begin with.

As such, I think my expenses are pretty much divided equally between
- Entertainment (travel, food, etc.)
- Cars
- Utilities
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds - 'Herding' Behavior?
Replies: 20
Views: 2269

Re: Index Funds - 'Herding' Behavior?

Index investing = Communism. Only when everybody will own substantial invested assets, though... I agree with your main point, but in communism society as a whole owns all means of production, not just those available to buy through financial markets. It's even more extreme than what you posted. In...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Timing
Replies: 11
Views: 884

Re: Vanguard Timing

Yes, and then I had an instance of VT reinvested outside the day's range. Outside on the high side, to be sure.
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two years from retirement - what's more important?
Replies: 57
Views: 2581

Re: Two years from retirement - what's more important?

What do you think? Anyone followed a similar course? If you're close to retirement and have a decent amount of funds, I can recommend it from a sleep-well-at-night standpoint. Are you planning to go 100% cash on the day you retire ? Probably not. Hopefully planning for a very long retirement, your ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

As for the LT Treasuries better return, I bet you can find several other investments that outperformed a yearly 3.8% Well neither US stocks nor international stocks outperformed 3.8% over the last 20 years. What about high-yeld, or Chinese stocks? I mean, you picket LT treasuries. What’s the meanin...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare CD to Bond fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1045

Re: How to compare CD to Bond fund

What’s the fund’s presnt YTM and duration ?

In general, there is an advantage for individual investors in using FDIC insured CD’s, since their yield reflects the credit rating of the issuer, while their risk under FDIC protection is the same (if not lower) than Treasuries.
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

It is a rather useless definition of “return in a century” that which changes substantially whether one starts calculating one year earlier, or one year later... So let's calculate one year earlier and get a 20 year return through the end of last year. The year 1999 was a great year for US stocks. ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds - 'Herding' Behavior?
Replies: 20
Views: 2269

Re: Index Funds - 'Herding' Behavior?

Index investing = Communism. Only when everybody will own substantial invested assets, though...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Timing
Replies: 11
Views: 884

Re: Vanguard Timing

Thank you for the link, but that does not address my comment. The day of reinvestment is indeed very clear, for Vanguard and for others brokers I have experience with. My doubts concern the reinvestment price of marketable securities in the day of reinvestment. My feeling is that Vanguard picks less...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two years from retirement - what's more important?
Replies: 57
Views: 2581

Re: Two years from retirement - what's more important?

What’s the OP’s target AA in the first year of retirement ? If it is not substantially different from the AA in the years preceding retirement then considerations are the same two years before and two years after leaving work.
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

It is a rather useless definition of “return in a century” that which changes substantially whether one starts calculating one year earlier, or one year later...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

On highly volatile investments calculating returns jan1-dec31 vs. , for instance, jul1-jun30 may yield rather different results.

Also, how accurate would have been the return estimate using the traditional ttm P/E versus Shiller’s index ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SALT Deduction Limit Workarounds
Replies: 9
Views: 2439

Re: SALT Deduction Limit Workarounds

I understand that, but minimizing overall taxes is different from maximizing donation amount. Donating in order to avoiding taxes is a non-starter, since one will always end up paying more, or at most the same, as if one had not donated. It is a concept relevant only for those who want to donate any...
by Thesaints
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Timing
Replies: 11
Views: 884

Re: Vanguard Timing

I still have doubts on Vanguard’s timing as ETF/stocks automatic dividends reinvestment is concerned. My feeling is that they constantly pick high prices in the day reinvestment takes place. I don’t get the same impression from my TD Ameritrade account and Sharebuilder used the simple rule of reinve...
by Thesaints
Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you contribute the max to your IRA and then invest it all in equities for the first market day of the new year?
Replies: 159
Views: 7712

Re: Will you contribute the max to your IRA and then invest it all in equities for the first market day of the new year?

limeyx wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:01 pm
Just funded our 2019 Roths. Cue a 6 month market decline from today onwards now !
Next time let us know in advance, so we can short.
by Thesaints
Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks and bonds BOTH down in 2018
Replies: 16
Views: 1111

Re: Stocks and bonds BOTH down in 2018

Early in my investing career (~20 years ago) I recall reading that a reason to own both stocks and bonds in a portfolio is that they tend to move in opposite directions. Well, no. They usually have a correlation near zero, not near -1. It means that they perform independently one from the other, no...
by Thesaints
Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does Buyer ever Lose on eBay?
Replies: 36
Views: 2225

Re: Does Buyer ever Lose on eBay?

I've made purchases on ebay for the past 15, maybe 20, years. Not once I have been swindled, or taken advantage of. Rating system is your friend and there are mechanisms in place to guarantee buyers and sellers if rules are followed. My current rating is ≈260, so I'm talking of a not negligible numb...