Search found 2294 matches

by Thesaints
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Those who are able to retire on a 2% withdrawal rate have the option of transitioning to a 4% rate and live large. Those who retire on a 4% withdrawal rate cannot increase it to 8% to achieve the same result.
by Thesaints
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I repatriate my cash?
Replies: 14
Views: 1235

Re: Should I repatriate my cash?

I’d move the money to the US if only to avoid FATCA filings and other tax reporting hassles. There is no such thing as FATCA filings (for individuals). The only thing you have to file is FBAR (now FinCEN 114), which has nothing to do with FATCA. FBAR comes from the 1970 Bank Secrecy Act. FBAR takes...
by Thesaints
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 76
Views: 5329

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

Thegame14 wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:00 pm
If you are ahead of the game, it never hurts to take some winnings off the table....
That's easy. The hard part is getting back in.
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Well, I think the most likely scenario is both. The future will be positive and wonderful and long, but will be punctuated by the occasional calamity, just like the past. Those who die in a hurricane don't get to enjoy the following fair weather. The point of good financial planning is precisely to...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I repatriate my cash?
Replies: 14
Views: 1235

Re: Should I repatriate my cash?

Neoseo1300 wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:21 pm
Am I missing something big here
FATCA, maybe ?
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 96
Views: 6120

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

The greatest risk to retirees may be that you'll be too successful: “You have to worry about getting unlucky and living to 100,” said Richard Thaler, a Nobel Prize winner in economics, during a Brookings Institution event Thursday. How long you’ll live and how much money you’ll need in retirement a...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging: My experience after 9 years
Replies: 27
Views: 7103

Re: Value Averaging: My experience after 9 years

VA is like CA, except that it often performs a little better. When market returns are much worse than expected it performs a lot worse than CA, though. Since CA is not a method for increasing returns, but precisely to lessen the consequences of the worst possible market outcomes, it seems to me that...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

DonIce wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:30 pm
... humankind will go extinct before that, which in itself is worse than the great depression.
Yes, but extinct people don't have to withdraw from their portfolio. Therefore, humankind extinction is not worse from a financial point of view !
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/07/ ... ack-swans/
...most importantly, don’t assume something won’t happen because the computed probabilities are very low. Those computations often severely underestimate the true risk.
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I wonder if there are any actuaries reading this thread. It would be interesting to know the risk of: 1) A draw down worse than the great depression 2) Getting killed in a car accident while driving back and forth to work for the extra years (5?, 10?) it would take the save the additional money to ...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which companies do you own a single share, or token amount, of stock?
Replies: 65
Views: 3123

Re: In which companies do you own a single share, or token amount, of stock?

Every ~$13,000 in VTSAX correspond to ownership of one FB share...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?
Replies: 58
Views: 7879

Re: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?

bernoulli wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:39 pm
Is the preference for I bonds over EE bonds largely a result of the illiquidity of the EE bonds?
Don't they have the same, infinite, liquidity ?
Hard to say which one pays more over a long period, since Series I resets every 6 months.
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?
Replies: 58
Views: 7879

Re: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?

Sometimes somebody here manages to calculate what the rate would be equivalent to if you keep it for the 11-months-and-a-day minimum time (buying at the end of the month and redeeming at the start of that month the following year), taking into account the 3 month penalty. Not sure if somebody's up ...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:35 pm
I would prefer to focus on what's likely and probable instead of what's possible no matter how unlikely.
That's why I guess you would not have any problem taking a stroll on the edge of a highrise roof.
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Advantaged maxed out
Replies: 5
Views: 431

Re: Tax Advantaged maxed out

I mean that to meet my AA, I have to invest in bonds in my taxable accounts, it seems this is tax inefficient?k The answer is complex. If the choice is simply to have bonds in a taxable, or in a tax deferred account, it is obvious. And it is also obvious that once you run out of space in the TaxAdv...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% total market index for 10 years, wondering if I should have bonds and international
Replies: 16
Views: 1930

Re: 100% total market index for 10 years, wondering if I should have bonds and international

Questions: 1. My understanding from limited research is that 100% Index funds is riskier and no more profitable than 80% index funds and 20% bonds, partly because if you have automatic re-balancing it will continuously buy low/sell high between the bonds and stocks. That's is generally not true, if...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Nondiversification Risk. Due to a recent index rebalance
Replies: 3
Views: 254

Re: Nondiversification Risk. Due to a recent index rebalance

I received an email VG Recently, Vanguard updated the prospectuses for Vanguard Growth Index Fund and Vanguard Mega Cap Growth Index Fund as a result of a recent rebalance of the fund's respective benchmarks, the CRSP US Large Cap Growth index and the CRSP Mega Cap Growth index. Due to the index re...
by Thesaints
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Advantaged maxed out
Replies: 5
Views: 431

Re: Tax Advantaged maxed out

Question: I assume I just allocate the other investments for Bonds into my taxable account and realize I cannot have a tax advantaged bond setup ? Are there alternatives? I am with Fidelity What does that mean ? Money in a tax-advantaged account can be invested in bonds; money outside of those cann...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security - How Secure?
Replies: 28
Views: 1437

Re: Social Security - How Secure?

... How secure do you consider a 10-year Treasury note ? What about a Sprint Corporation 4-year bond ? The 1983 amendments made it abundantly clear social security payments are not backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. That was a feature, not a bug, and was necessary to garner e...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

You are vastly misunderstanding what a Spartan lifestyle is. If one spends more than the average American family it is by very definition not a Spartan lifestyle. I don't know. What's the definition of spartan ? Perhaps is certain bubbles planning for 80,000 expenses on a 200,000 a year income is b...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security - How Secure?
Replies: 28
Views: 1437

Re: Social Security - How Secure?

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:04 pm
Why are you taking Social Security at 62? That is a lifetime of reduced benefits.
Yes, but also 8 years of extra benefits.
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security - How Secure?
Replies: 28
Views: 1437

Re: Social Security - How Secure?

I am building cash flow projections to determine the amount of $$ I will need to withdraw in retirement. I have never expected social security to be there for my retirement but now that I am 58 years old I am thinking that it is likely social security won't be bust when I am eligible to get checks ...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

X is spending and always has been. The great thing about using multiples and percentages is that it doesn't matter if you want to live a spartan lifestyle or a luxurious one. The numbers don't change. Just because some FIRE people want to live a spartan lifestyle I'm not sure why that matters. I pl...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

You can not deny that having financial independence earlier in life is better. Period! I do deny it, if "independence" is conditional to a reduced lifestyle. Hmm, maybe it means different things to different people...? And if assumptions differ, conclusions may well diverge.... Sure it is subjectiv...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much in Tax free Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 552

Re: How Much in Tax free Bonds

A diversified muni fund is probably safer than a total bond fund. Both being on the safe side, however.
Everything else being equal, one should either be 100% or 0% in munis, depending on after-tax yield.
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with some stale CDs?
Replies: 5
Views: 646

Re: What to do with some stale CDs?

You lose five months of interest to get just 9 months worth of extra interest. Gain is small, furthermore you extend maturity for an extra 3.5 years.
Doesn't look like a good swap.
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Also, in a great depression event I would rather be 25x with 40% bonds and unemployed vs 5x and 40% bonds with a job that just laid me off. 25x with 40% bonds has 10 years of living expenses built in. 5x is screwed. "25x" "5x" mean nothing. "x" of what ? Planning to live under a bridge, eating at t...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wash Sales
Replies: 32
Views: 1545

Re: Wash Sales

IRS Publication 564. Mutual funds as I said. To be fair, that is a ten-year-old publication that is no longer valid. Current IRS publications do not include that language. Perhaps the IRS realized it was a mistake and took the statement out of current literature. Well, not really. They combined it ...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Yes, that is called "retirement police". It is obvious for everybody that most 40y olds din't retire in the sense that they cannot touch any work (especially paid) because God's fury will strike them. They just have the flexibility to do what they want. This what retirement is: to do what you what ...
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is seeking tax shelter always right?
Replies: 22
Views: 1980

Re: Is seeking tax shelter always right?

jdsmith wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:45 pm
As a general principle, is there such a thing as too much tax sheltering?
If the tax-sheltered assets are eventually taxed as income rather than as long-term capital gains/QDI one may want to consider carefully.
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand buying individual bonds/notes/etc. w/Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 416

Re: Help me understand buying individual bonds/notes/etc. w/Vanguard

averagedude wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:27 pm
In the bond market, higher yield means higher risk. Don't ever buy individual bonds unless you can diversify enough where your highest bond position is only 5% of your total bond holding, and even then I would be cautious.
It's a FHLB. What risk is there ?
by Thesaints
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UC funds approximation of the total stock market
Replies: 8
Views: 693

Re: UC funds approximation of the total stock market

Those UC funds have virtually zero ER.
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand buying individual bonds/notes/etc. w/Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 416

Re: Help me understand buying individual bonds/notes/etc. w/Vanguard

2020, sure. You pay 99.774 and get back 103.8 in 12 months: 4.035%
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Just to play the devil's advocate, common sense dictates that you retired in 2000 or 1929 at 45 and watch your stocks lose 50% of their value immediately after you simply get a new job and continue like literally every other 45 year old out there. Retirement at 45 is the same as quitting a job, ove...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Why do you call this a trick? Calling it retirement while continuing to work (to avoid plan failure, not just by choice) ain't that kosher. Working when one desires, probably around a hobby, is not at all the same as full time employment. Extreme FIRE require this type of flexibility, just in case....
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand buying individual bonds/notes/etc. w/Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 416

Re: Help me understand buying individual bonds/notes/etc. w/Vanguard

I see Yield to Maturity of 3.816 -- so I'd earn a 3.816% yield if I purchased this bond at the current price AND if I held until the end of the 20 year term AND if the bond wasn't called by the issuer. The yield is mostly a 3.8% coupon and the remainder is the difference in the price paid (99.774) ...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?
Replies: 62
Views: 4369

Re: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?

Thus by using the legal definition of a stock, is it easier to see why your stocks can keep appreciating. They will increase by virtue of inflation alone, by virtue of applying the funds to increase the value of existing assets, and even the increase in aggregate demand for those assets from a risi...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

That means 5% withdrawal rate with a highly volatile portfolio. Chances of exhausting funds before dying are at their maximum. From what I remember his 5% SWR is based on: 1. SS being a sizable part of living expenses (low expenses to begin with). 2. Picking up "side hustles" and part time jobs whe...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

So you advocate that shorter life is BETTER than longer life because you cannot be sorry for what you lost? You priorities are very strange to me. Your fear is to live too long? Too much life? Life can be shortened at any point, if that is the issue. Personally, my position is that a longer life wi...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about AA for someone 10 years from retirement with no savings
Replies: 21
Views: 980

Re: Question about AA for someone 10 years from retirement with no savings

Recognizing she is way behind, this is more of a "harm reduction" approach rather than her having a full retirement. I'm trying to make sure she can do so with dignity, even if it is certainly not going to be lavish. I am unsure what her SS income will be, but she has worked all of her adult life. ...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Moreover, the probability of running out of money based on MMMs WR is smaller than the probability of running out of life/health. MMM is mathematically correct. BH is more based on irrational fear. That doesn't even begin to be wrong. Dying has no financial consequences for the decedent, so to spea...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:04 pm
I never lived frugally to save. I saved because I lived frugally. I don't plan any change in lifestyle now that I'm retired.
"I never lived frugally. I don't plan any change in lifestyle."
It sounds a lot more enticing, n'est-ce pas ?
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating Individual 5 year note vs TIPS
Replies: 8
Views: 269

Re: Calculating Individual 5 year note vs TIPS

Well, select your 2014 issue, find its rate, and add the cumulative CPI between then and now. It won't be the 100% correct number, but it won't be far off the mark either.
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here have experience with Zacks or Personal Capital managing their investments
Replies: 20
Views: 1361

Re: Anyone here have experience with Zacks or Personal Capital managing their investments

Zacks are those folks who almost daily post articles on Yahoo titled: "Is <random fund name here> a strong mutual fund ?". A ludicrous analysis follows; often they don't even get the fund's name right and it goes downhill from there.
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?
Replies: 62
Views: 4369

Re: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?

White Coat Investor wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:34 pm
It seems to me that every buyer has a seller and vice versa.
Yes, but the sellers are not selling the same thing they bought.
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 441
Views: 35019

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Starfish wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:16 pm
What is the probability to be at 70 dead or incapacitated vs. what is the probability to run out of money and be aware of it?
I bet than many BH-ers already are in their 70's. Not all of them incapacitated.
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating Individual 5 year note vs TIPS
Replies: 8
Views: 269

Re: Calculating Individual 5 year note vs TIPS

Do you want to estimate future return for those two issues, or are you trying to check past returns of 5-year notes and TIPS ? In the first case, it can't be done since nobody knows future CPI values. In the second case, you can search historical returns for 5-year notes and TIPS separately and comp...
by Thesaints
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about AA for someone 10 years from retirement with no savings
Replies: 21
Views: 980

Re: Question about AA for someone 10 years from retirement with no savings

How much does she need to retire ?
When would she like to retire ?
How much can she contribute till then ?