Search found 1072 matches

by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Revisiting EE Bonds given 20 year treasury bond at ~1.9%
Replies: 31
Views: 2229

Re: Revisiting EE Bonds given 20 year treasury bond at ~1.9%

To an extent, yes, but the complication of EE bonds is that their liquidity effectively drops the longer you hold them right up until the 20 year period is up. As such, there is an increasing cost from switching from them to anything else. In a rising rate environment, you may have a significant pr...
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I and EE bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 1874

Re: I and EE bonds

Normally, I would recommend TIPS over I-Bonds for a long-term investment, because long-term TIPS yield significantly more. However, the 30-year TIPS now yields 0.44%, which is less than the tax-deferred yield on I-Bonds issued through October 31. Therefore, I-Bonds are currently a free lunch. I-Bon...
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Revisiting EE Bonds given 20 year treasury bond at ~1.9%
Replies: 31
Views: 2229

Re: Revisiting EE Bonds given 20 year treasury bond at ~1.9%

In my view, those buying EE bonds are betting that over the next 20 years, inflation will remain very low, interest rates won't rise significantly, and the Treasury won't change the terms of EE bonds. Except for the last statement, that is the bet anyone buying a regular nominal treasury (20+ yrs) ...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Minimal Cash and Bonds in Portfolio
Replies: 22
Views: 2002

Re: Minimal Cash and Bonds in Portfolio

I want to get a sanity check and really appreciate the fine minds at BH's. I am 67, have about $7M in assets, about 50% in rental real estate and about 50% in index stock funds. The $3.5M I have in index funds is almost entirely in S and P 500 Index and International Index funds (although I do keep...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put new money? Small Windfall
Replies: 16
Views: 2258

Re: Where to put new money? Small Windfall

Increasing the emergency fund, part of which can be put into Ibonds, will help the OP weather financial events in the future. Prepaying a 3.375% mortgage is a terrible choice if it means you carry a 24% credit card balance next month. My mistake as I misread your post. Since you finished your sente...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put new money? Small Windfall
Replies: 16
Views: 2258

Re: Where to put new money? Small Windfall

Sure we will. It’s close to zero given historical spread of rates, and even closer to inflation. That’s low on an absolute basis. Even pessimistic long term market return assumptions are about double his mortgage rate. But you clearly think he should prepay his mortgage. He wouldn’t be wrong to do ...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put new money? Small Windfall
Replies: 16
Views: 2258

Re: Where to put new money? Small Windfall

8foot7 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:17 am
Op is young, 3.375 is an extraordinarily low 30 year rate
We wont know whether it is extraordinarily low for another 30 years. Mortgate rates have been 'extraordinarily' low for 20 years...making it not extraordinary.
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 84
Views: 5568

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

Present inflation nationally exceeds 2%. Ergo, we presently reside in a negative real return environment. Where are you getting that number? CPI rate (including food and energy) was only 1.8% YOY. CPI - Food & Energy was 2.2%, but unless you don't use energy and don't eat, that number is meaningles...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put new money? Small Windfall
Replies: 16
Views: 2258

Re: Where to put new money? Small Windfall

Divide the 25-30k you have left by 12 and invest that amount monthly into your asset allocation and forget about it. I wouldn't prepay a 30yr note at 3.375. With the 10-year treasury at 1.55%, why not? That makes the mortgage look pretty expensive IMHO. I-bonds? With mortgage debt at 3.375%? Why iB...
by welderwannabe
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should we buy bond mutual funds now?
Replies: 30
Views: 3235

Re: Should we buy bond mutual funds now?

My retirement accounts fixed income is 25% intermediate treasuries and 25% short term corporates. I feel it's a good balance with credit risk and term risk all in the right places for me.
by welderwannabe
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4369

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I think you missed the best part of the party, friend. All the cool people already left and the host is starting to look at her watch and wonder if anyone will help clean up this mess. Most bogleheads insist they are immune to market timing, and robotically buy no matter what, and I believe them al...
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard balanced index
Replies: 7
Views: 1611

Re: Vanguard balanced index

It is not made up of Total Bond and Total Stock market. It is not a fund of funds.

However, it tracks the exact same indexes as Total Bond and Total Stock, so functionally it should perform identically, with a smaller ER than many of Vanguard's 'fund of funds'.
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Income stream for 10 years
Replies: 32
Views: 3416

Re: Income stream for 10 years

I wouldn't use FASIX. The expense ratio is horrendous.

I would look at AOK iShares Core Conservative Allocation ETF. It is 30/70, so not exactly what you asked for but close. ER is less than half what FASIX is. AOK trades commission free at Fidelity.
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 135
Views: 9904

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

It depresses me.
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity and American Funds Help - Target Date or 3-Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 957

Re: Fidelity and American Funds Help - Target Date or 3-Fund

Boy, I would take another look at this. American Funds are pretty highly regarded, I looked up the American Funds 2055 Target Date Fund on Morningstar and it is rated as 5 star. These guys are good active managers and have had great performance for years. Larry Swedroe analyzed their funds and had ...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Short and intermediate investment grade corporates. (We also have some 12% of our FI portfolio in Pimco Total Return Fund PTTRX which I treat as intermediate term investment grade for want of any real data supplied by Pimco. :annoyed ) For clarification: It's 15% of my total portfolio or 30% of the...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% in VTSAX - Is it crazy???
Replies: 87
Views: 10877

Re: 100% in VTSAX - Is it crazy???

Go read all the posts on here from 2008-2009. If after doing so you still believe in 100% VTSAX then great.
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity and American Funds Help - Target Date or 3-Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 957

Re: Fidelity and American Funds Help - Target Date or 3-Fund

Here are my thoughts (late 20s, plan to retire at 65) 70% - FSMAX (Fidelity Ext. Market) 15% - FSGGZ (Fidelity Global) 15% - FXNAX (Fidelity Bond) I would not go 70% in the Extended market as that completely leaves out large caps. The extended market find is meant to be added to the S&P 500 fund to...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Personally our portfolio is 50:50 with maybe 35% of the total portfolio in Treasuries in actual bills/notes or as Treasury funds. But given our age I no longer use long Treasuries at all and given the current yield curve there is no longer even much intermediate term left. What the other 15% of you...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

That was what everyone has been saying since 2012, when the Fed funds rate was .15%. Despite that rate increasing over 2% since then, LTT have far outpaced shorter-term bonds. Bond yields do not follow the Fed funds rate in lock step, and predicting which direction interest rates will go is far mor...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ok to increase 401K contributions before maxing out Roth IRAs?
Replies: 51
Views: 2128

Re: Ok to increase 401K contributions before maxing out Roth IRAs?

retiredjg wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:05 am
Ideally, if you could figure it to the last penny, filling the Roth IRAs at only 12% is a very good deal and I would make that a priority over putting more into 401k while you are in this very low tax bracket (as long as you are getting the full match if one exists).

+1
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I'm sorry, how is the duration of 27 years (assuming 30 year bonds?) constant? It will progressively move towards 15, assuming you add a new bond every year, no? A 5 year ladder implies every 5 years it is replenished, which this is not, no? Or are you selling after 5 years and reinvesting to maint...
by welderwannabe
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Until you have enough $ to setup a ladder you will have a duration which is not constant. Also while saving on the ER, you are losing on reinvesting proceeds if your payments aren't large enough to buy new bonds. I do both. I do long term treasuries individually, and I invest the coupons in Vanguar...
by welderwannabe
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:08 am
Your opinion of index fund versus direct purchase of LTT bond through auction?
Buy individual treasury bonds at auction. Its easy to do. Why pay a fee?
by welderwannabe
Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best Vanguard Short-term bond fund
Replies: 13
Views: 1498

Re: What is the best Vanguard Short-term bond fund

What is the best Vanguard Short-term bond fund for $500,000. in taxable account. <snip> I live in NJ and own a lot of individual NJ MUNI bonds already. I am in the 35% federal tax bracket. ( VWSUX ) Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares (0.09%) Solid choice, but just as a safety tip th...
by welderwannabe
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Core Position
Replies: 26
Views: 3448

Re: Fidelity Core Position

As a reminder, you can hold any fidelity MMF in your account and the money is tradeable and available for withdrawal just as if it is in your core position. Therefore there is really no reason to hold anything in your core position at Fidelity unless you happen to like what the offerings are.
by welderwannabe
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?
Replies: 101
Views: 8401

Re: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?

The post to which you were responding was concerned with repurchase agreements backed by t-bills, which are held by the treasury MMF, which does state that it is 100% backed by the full faith and credit of the US treasury. I don't understand where this is coming from. The Vanguard Treasury MMF cont...
by welderwannabe
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off my Mortgage (yes, another)
Replies: 19
Views: 1872

Re: Should I pay off my Mortgage (yes, another)

You are describing paying it off for emotional reasons. Not sure how much we can help you sort through that. I wouldn't pay off the house just because you are worried about the market or possible job prospects. That is a reason for an emergency fund. Your EF is solid, maybe focus on building it out ...
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?
Replies: 101
Views: 8401

Re: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?

Northern Flicker wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:06 pm
welderwannabe wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:54 am
Northern Flicker wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:02 am

Repurchase agreements collateralized by t-bills are as safe as t-bills.
No they arent.
Perhaps you can explain why? Repos backed by t-bills are held by money funds that are described as 100% backed by the full faith and credit of the US treasury.
Read my above post
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?
Replies: 101
Views: 8401

Re: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?

The repos are of the same type government securities. There is highly theoretical settlement risk. If that corner of the repo market fails, the end is here but even in that scenario the Fed MM is as or more likely to pay and be liquid IMHO. As others have noted the FDIC will gate withdrawals. if ei...
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?
Replies: 101
Views: 8401

Re: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?

There is a regulation that requires settlement funds to be in government securities. I keep seeing this repeated but have never been able to find this regulation to confirm. I actually believe this is false. My belief is that brokerages didn't want to have to deal with the complexities of having a ...
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?
Replies: 101
Views: 8401

Re: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?

I disagree with this. FDIC insurance not coming through would require apocalyptic conditions, the MM having hiccups, not so much, just a pervasive level of angst What u describe is a run on a money market. The very same thing destroys banks too. Also many dont know this but all savings accounts hav...
by welderwannabe
Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?
Replies: 101
Views: 8401

Re: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?

Northern Flicker wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:02 am

Repurchase agreements collateralized by t-bills are as safe as t-bills.
No they arent.
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dept Outsourced - Job Worries - Need your Advises
Replies: 69
Views: 6654

Re: Dept Outsourced - Job Worries - Need your Advises

Dont stress too much. If you're gonna get laid off there isn't a better job market for it to happen in. You wont be out of work for long. Your skills aren't as stale as you think they are. We like to think IT is revolutionary at the moment but when you boil it all down what we do today is really a s...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS no longer cheap
Replies: 34
Views: 5174

Re: REITS no longer cheap

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:01 am
If I experience that in the future I would allocate the funds to asset allocation.
Regardless, what it means is if you own a home you have a current investment in real estate. You can choose to factor it in to your plans or not.
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Derogatory remark on Credit report
Replies: 37
Views: 4706

Re: Derogatory remark on Credit report

Loandapper wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:08 am
Thanks for the info. Just cancelled my BOA card.
Agreed, sounds like a good reason to stay away.
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS no longer cheap
Replies: 34
Views: 5174

Re: REITS no longer cheap

Should long term multi decade investors care? I don’t use them because they’re included in the total market fund and I own a house. I have heard the House item many times but I never agreed with that strategy. One can not rebalance a house or mortgage. No, but one can sell it and take the cash and ...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation w/ Bond Yields at Zero%
Replies: 12
Views: 1728

Re: Asset Allocation w/ Bond Yields at Zero%

Permanent portfolio maybe?
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Treasuries at Broker?
Replies: 7
Views: 571

Re: Buying Treasuries at Broker?

Uhh ... I thought the coupon rate was set and we buyers bid on the purchase price. At least that’s what happens on the Fido website. As I indicated, I’m confused. I’ll check past purchases tomorrow. I believe that depends on whether it is an additional offering of the same issue or a first time off...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?
Replies: 101
Views: 8401

Re: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?

Government securities are clearly more safe than FDIC. There is no actual law, regulation, or process in place to actually backstop FDIC when it runs out of the small amount of money it has. Right now it has $97 billion to guarantee all the bank accounts in America. The Lehman Brothers collapse was...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best place for cash: money market (fido) vs saving account
Replies: 13
Views: 1524

Re: Best place for cash: money market (fido) vs saving account

Fidelity's money market products aren't as good as Vanguard's due to the higher ER. What fidelity brings to the table is check writing (with no $250 limit) and debit card/atm use if you use their CMA account. In addition, all money in their money markets are considered part of your 'cash available f...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: P2P lending
Replies: 5
Views: 590

Re: P2P lending

The lack of liquidity was also a real downside. Once I decided I wanted out in order to reinvest the funds back into my mutual fund portfolio, I had to wait over a year. Then, there is tax drag incurred with every incoming payment. For all of those reasons and more, I'd stay out of p2p lending and ...
by welderwannabe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?
Replies: 101
Views: 8401

Re: Does it bug anyone else that Vanguard only has money market for cash?

Essentially. In the years since the GFC the SEC has implemented new rules that change the treatment of different MM funds based on their composition. "Prime" funds are now allowed to float their share price and also implement redemption gates to prevent runs. Treasury-backed MM funds are not, which...
by welderwannabe
Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 109
Views: 10991

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

Negative nominal yields existing are a possibility. This possibility has been realized in a few countries. But negative yields on everything? That seems doubtful. Is there anywhere in the world where there is nothing but negative yields available to ordinary individuals with the equivalent of a few...
by welderwannabe
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sold Home - $300,000 Profit - Invest or Pay Cash For New House?
Replies: 58
Views: 5183

Re: Sold Home - $300,000 Profit - Invest or Pay Cash For New House?

If you were still into the house and owned it free and clear, would you have taken out a $300,000 cash out mortgage to invest the money in the market?

Your answer to that question should be the same as to this one.
by welderwannabe
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying $20k worth of mortgage points.
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: Buying $20k worth of mortgage points.

Never pay points.

Average lifespan of a mortgage us less than 10 years. Closer to 7 actually.

Investors in mortgages compare the yield to that of a 10 year treasury for a reason...
by welderwannabe
Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Aggressive loan paydown on sub-2.5% fixed debt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1175

Re: Aggressive loan paydown on sub-2.5% fixed debt?

Meg77 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:44 pm
2.45% is about the cost of inflation; in other words that is free money.
The fed does not seem to agree
by welderwannabe
Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does fed cut affect gold prices , stock market , mortgage rates?
Replies: 15
Views: 2038

Re: Does fed cut affect gold prices , stock market , mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates (and the 10Y) have already come down with the expectation of this cut and potential future ones. I can't quantify this but if you are looking for the near-term to get a mortgage, I would guess there is more risk of rates going back up than further down. Futures and other markets are ...
by welderwannabe
Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Repair Question
Replies: 29
Views: 2132

Re: Car Repair Question

A good air conditioning shop is far better and cheaper than a dealer usually.
by welderwannabe
Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 260
Views: 25058

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

Hello all - SUMMARY: I'm looking for opinions and personal experiences of some weird, substandard brokerage accounts, which I would move money to in exchange for a cheaper mortgage I'm currently shopping for a mortgage refi. As you might expect given this forum, I'm pretty...frugal. As a result, I'...