Search found 363 matches

by david1082b
Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 30551

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Fair enough! Perhaps my 60 year look back can only make my point for the last 40 years. But 40 years still reinforces my point that the long term trend...almost 40 years...is that each recession ratchets up the debt to GDP level. And that perhaps the risk is that we’ll run out of dry powder (cheap borrowing ability) to dig out of and shrug off future recessions. The debt to GDP level has gone up since 1980 basically because of tax cuts and spending increases. Recessions from 1950 to 1980 didn't see debt to GDP going up because taxes and spending were more in balance. The year 2000 did see a sort of balanced budget which could have paved the way for a lower or stable debt to GDP, but clearly the post-2000 tax/spending bills didn't allow for...
by david1082b
Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...
Replies: 22
Views: 9945

Re: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...

"In highly efficient full-production places like the U.S., the stock market is reflective somewhat to what the economy is doing. From 2000 to 2011 the US economy grew but the total stock market returned nothing pretty much. Was that really reflective of the economy? Is that a reason to be wary of USA too? Avoid all stock markets perhaps since they are not directly linked to the economy? Comparing emerging markets fund VEIEX to total US index VTSMX from 2000 to 2011: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VEIEX&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmarkSetti...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is President Jimmy Carter a Boglehead?
Replies: 22
Views: 2402

Re: Is President Jimmy Carter a Boglehead?

I found this NYTimes article from 1976 about investments: If he is elected President, Jimmy Carter says he plans to dispose of his stocks, divest himself of his peanut business and divert royalties from his popular autobiography to a philanthropic foundation. Mr. Carter owns outright or shares an interest in more than 2,000 acres of land here in southwest Georgia, much of which is directly affected by decisions of the Department of Agriculture, an agency on which a President can exert significant influence. Although he couched his uncertainty about separating himself from his land in terms of a sentimental attachment, the land is valued at $348,444, nearly half his total net worth https://www.nytimes.com/1976/09/01/archives/carter-discloses...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Betting Against Beta
Replies: 12
Views: 2156

Re: Larry Swedroe: Betting Against Beta

Since the current bull market is rather long in the tooth, would betting against beta be market timing if an investor chose to sell his high beta funds now? DMW I have often seen "long in the tooth" used for the post-2009 boom, and I just searched it and found three articles by Mark Hulbert: October 9, 2012: Is the Bull Market Long in the Tooth? Investors who are long the stock market are no doubt hoping that the current bull market is far from over. Alas, those hopes could be undone by the advanced age of this bull market, along with it's rich valuation. https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111903463204578046912655013082 Feb 24, 2013: Investors — tantalized as they are by the prospect of the stock market “melting up” as...
by david1082b
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mark Cuban bullish on Netflix and Amazon
Replies: 19
Views: 2406

Re: Mark Cuban bullish on Netflix and Amazon

If you're bullish on stocks surely you'd want to load up as much as possible. Lots of cash on the sidelines? For what? If you're waiting for a crash then you ain't exactly bullish?
by david1082b
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 11601

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

I look forward to a 10%, 20%, even a 30% drop in SP500. Did you hear the one about the stock market that went down 90%? First it went down 80%, and then it got cut in half. Suppose I heard about it. But it could have been fake news. So, that never happened. Sarcasm aside, why does it matter what happened? Did "the [US] stock market" really go down 90%? People often use the Dow index number as a proxy for "the stock market", but it's only 30 stocks and price is not the only story. Looking at the reconstructed S&P 500 numbers for the approximate time-span obviously being referenced: Sep 1, 1929 31.30 Jun 1, 1932 4.77 http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month Clearly we're just talking about prices...
by david1082b
Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 203
Views: 13131

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

For those who don't believe valuation matters, I suppose this excellent article can just be discarded. But for those who are a little bit more philosophical about how recency bias from this 10 year bull market might cloud ones thinking, the chart comparing SWR vs CAEP, is outstanding. CAEP = about 3% today. This suggests anyone starting their 30 year run today, is going to be flirting with being a "least common denominator", if they stay the course. Thank you for posting.... The only actual 30-year span that has existed for a starting CAPE of over 30 starts around August-September 1929 -- 30 year annualized return for August was 7.9% nominal and 6% real https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 11601

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

Now, Vanguard says the chances of one by late 2020 are between 30 and 40 percent. That’s Vanguard’s highest-ever estimate for that time frame, Mr. Davis said.
What was their estimate in the middle of 2005 for a recession by late 2007? Or didn't they have economists back then making these predictions? Maybe Vanguard doesn't need to employ these people, perhaps they could hire better customer service instead? No one will complain if the recession estimate is wrong, but customer service problems are definitely complained about a lot.
by david1082b
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 106
Views: 14821

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

h82goslw wrote: Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:46 am Why is such a small country/market having such a disproportionate effect on the US stock market today? I’m not doing anything with my investments but it baffles me why events like this are so (temporarily) toxic at home.
40% to 50% of days are down pretty much, is it really Turkish problems causing the stock market in USA to go down? Maybe it's just noise and these things just happen? 0.4% down is a very standard day, happens many times a year.
by david1082b
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELP!!!!! Need to find documentation of index superiority
Replies: 32
Views: 3756

Re: HELP!!!!! Need to find documentation of index superiority

thanks to ignition and hicabob. I'm bookmarking this post because of those two links you provided. Excellent. Any thoughts on why of all the countries listed, India and Japan's index funds underperformed the active managed funds? 56.6% of India's active management beat their version of the S&P and 55.69% of Japan's active managed funds beat their version of the S&P? https://us.spindices.com/spiva/#/reports Anybody else find that interesting? To the OP (PNW$$), I can only hope your friends aren't in India or Japan. In that case, index funds could be a hard sell over active management. The data look confusing, since down the left of the page for India it says: Percentage of Indian Equity Large-Cap funds that underperformed the S&...
by david1082b
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Question] Does History at any point give an example of a complete market crash?
Replies: 8
Views: 1096

Re: [Question] Does History at any point give an example of a complete market crash?

War destruction and hyperinflation meant Germany, Austria and Japan had nearly minus 100% return from 1914 to 1950 apparently. The market crashes didn't cause their problems but were a result of them (places like the Soviet Union and Mao's China closed down their markets but those nations were not destroyed by that, they survived until political changes opened the markets back up). Bubbles have been going on for as long as markets exist no doubt.
by david1082b
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"
Replies: 15
Views: 2904

Re: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"

The CAPE ratio is as high as it’s ever been with the exception of 1929 and 2000.
This looks wrong. 1997 to 1999 saw very similar or higher numbers as well. It was above the current number at the start of every month of 1998 for example:
Current: Aug 6, 2018 33.13

Dec 1, 1998 38.82
Nov 1, 1998 37.37
Oct 1, 1998 33.77
Sep 1, 1998 33.53
Aug 1, 1998 35.42
Jul 1, 1998 38.26
Jun 1, 1998 36.80
May 1, 1998 36.95
Apr 1, 1998 37.27
Mar 1, 1998 36.29
Feb 1, 1998 34.71
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table?f=m

A bit disappointing seeing MB promoting this fallacy, no data presented to support the argument, unlike the bear market data which has a load of charts.
by david1082b
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 7181

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I think how much valuation matters is dependent upon your investment horizon and your distribution of your contributions. I agree with Packer. When I hear friends say "valuations don't matter," I believe they are suggesting it doesn't matter today (don't go out an sell everything today, nor go 100% stocks today). However, if you look at a longer historical time period, it would be hard to argue that a PE10 of 7.4 in 1981 wasn't a good time to be in stocks for the next 10 to 15 years. It would be equally hard to argue that a PE10 of over 30 in the late 90s wasn't a "value stretched" period of time to invest where returns were likely to be lower. Obviously no one can predict the short run (and no one should day trade), bu...
by david1082b
Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 179
Views: 26278

Re: AliBaba

TradingPlaces wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2015 1:41 pm
columbia wrote:Did it ever enter one of the Vanguard funds?
I hope not. No Chinese stocks should enter any index funds given the Chinese govt shenanigans.
Chinese stocks make up 3.3% of Total World Stock right now https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vt

We can see that Alibaba makes it to the first page of holdings https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profi ... o-holdings

TWS does what it says on the tin pretty much, excluding marginal places like Venezuela and Zimbabwe that don't qualify for emerging status, even "frontier" is pushing it for them.
by david1082b
Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 11482

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

All investing involves risk of losing money and there is always the risk that the entire global portfolio of investments might lose money over the course of many decades. A global portfolio has often helped reduce single-nation risk and is the theory used to construct Vanguard's Target Retirement and Lifestrategy funds. iShares has its Allocation ETFs, e.g. $AOR is 60% global stocks 40% bonds.
by david1082b
Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 89
Views: 12722

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

Yeah, this time it's different. Current S&P 500 CAPE is 32.67, and looking at early the summer of 1929 and summer of 1997 we can see very different returns for the next few years from the same numbers. So yes in the past it was different when there was a similar runup to such a high-looking level. Summer of 1929 to summer of 1932 saw minus 80% return or so, 1997 to 2000 saw 60% return. The ten-year returns were very different too, 1929-1939 saw no return while 1997 to 2007 saw a doubling. "It's always different" is more accurate than "this time is different". Even moderate CAPE numbers have resulted in bad performance over certain time-spans. July 1927 saw a CAPE of 15.81, not a number to cause concern, but by July ...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 1065

Re: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?

These are Jack Bogle's words on the matter: given our obvious need to enlist broker support for an underwriting, the [S&P 500 index] Trust carried an initial sales charge (low by mutual fund standards in those days—6% on smaller investments, tapered down to 1% on investments of $1 million or more). However, Vanguard was soon to change its distribution strategy. In February 1977, after an extremely contentious Board meeting at which the day was carried by a close vote of 8 to 5, the funds in The Vanguard Group, after nearly a half-century of participation in a dealer-distribution system operated by Wellington Management Company, terminated Wellington's contract and eliminated all sales charges. The Directors of First Index Investment Tru...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DJIA Bubble Chart
Replies: 9
Views: 1454

Re: DJIA Bubble Chart

Price to book value for S&P 500 since 2000:

Current: 3.40
Mean: 2.77
Median: 2.76
Min: 1.78 (Mar 2009)
Max: 5.06 (Mar 2000)

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?
Replies: 11
Views: 1348

Re: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?

An investor in August 2013 who sorted all publicly traded firms by their market caps from largest to smallest, selected the top 1%, invested equally in each of those 67 stocks, and then held that portfolio would have gained an annualized 13% over the next five years. In contrast, someone who employed the same tactic for the remaining 99% wouldn't have made a penny. This implies 6,700 stocks in total. Vanguard Total Stock Market has around 3,600 stocks in it, so where are the other 3,000 coming from? Is it US OTC stocks being included? There are many thousands of penny stocks on the US OTC markets, anyone can make one and list it (free market etc). They are not realistic stocks to invest in, just like you wouldn't equal-weight your investme...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DJIA Bubble Chart
Replies: 9
Views: 1454

Re: DJIA Bubble Chart

High-profit margin stocks like Apple and Visa and Microsoft are in the Dow now, earnings matter more than sales. Estimate of forward price to operating earnings is 16.47 for the Dow, though I don't have numbers for the year 2000 http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

People can argue for an earnings bubble I guess, but price to sales is not so relevant.
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 4350

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Great easy to see analysis showing that bond heavy portfolios are riskier than equity heavy portfolios! Since this is past data, we could say that they *were* often more risky, not *are* (since future performance is not known I believe). A few times the bond-heavy portfolio seemed to provide a safer withdrawal rate, especially around 1929-1930. A bond-heavy portfolio for Japanese in the last 30 years would have worked out better, as well as including ex-Japan stocks. Diversification into ex-US stocks is often disaparaged by Jack Bogle and some posters on Bogleheads, but the historical charts show that it was sometimes very useful for US investors. The fact that it hasn't worked in the last 25 to 30 years seems to get cherry-picked by Jack ...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next trillion market cap, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG?
Replies: 6
Views: 1058

Re: Next trillion market cap, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG?

They will all have trillion-dollar market caps at some point probably, same for Berkshire Hathaway and others.
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market price to sales ratio highest since dot com bubble
Replies: 3
Views: 520

Re: Market price to sales ratio highest since dot com bubble

Looking closer at margins:
The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q1 2018 is 11.1%. If 11.1% is the actual net profit margin for the quarter, it will mark the highest net profit margin for the S&P 500 since FactSet began tracking this data in Q3 2008. https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-repo ... or-q1-2018
Info Tech has a margin of 20%, the main sector driving the higher margin overall I guess. Real-estate has a margin of 36%, though it makes up a much smaller % of the index. Financials with 17% also is very high.
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market price to sales ratio highest since dot com bubble
Replies: 3
Views: 520

Re: Market price to sales ratio highest since dot com bubble

Profit margins are higher than 2000, so more earnings are made as a % of sales. Some take that as a bad thing, saying margins should "revert to the mean". That brings into question what is the sustainable long-term profit margin.

Price to book is quite a bit lower than in 2000 www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 112
Views: 13228

Re: Heading for a top?

That's just one index. S&P is only about half of the weighted market cap of world securities. Add in international and developing markets, and it's a bear market. We aren't the only country in the world. Looking at VTWSX (Vanguard World Stock Index Fund) as a proxy, close on January 26 (high point YTD) was 32.45, close on February 8 was 29.31 (low point YTD). Difference between the two is 9.6% drop from high to low, not even a correction. That did seem to be the case, $10,000 investment dropped to $9,030 in M* http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VT&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSet...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 112
Views: 13228

Re: Heading for a top?

Also, equities have been in somewhat of a bear market since February. Hardly. The lowest closing price for the S&P500 YTD was 2,581.00 on February 8th. Just prior to that, the highest closing price YTD for the index was 2,872.87 on January 26th. This represents a drop from high to low of 291.87, or a drop of 10.1% from the YTD high. That barely even qualifies as a correction, nowhere near a bear market. In any case, the index recovered since then and is now at 2827.22, just 1.6% off the YTD high. Nowhere near a bear market. That's just one index. S&P is only about half of the weighted market cap of world securities. Add in international and developing markets, and it's a bear market. We aren't the only country in the world. Going e...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2973

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

grok87 wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:11 pm tell that to the japanese investors from 1990
Getting back to the subject of investment reutrns, Japanese who had a global portfolio did OK since 1989. The blog post that seemed to inspire the thread title was based on the idea of getting global exposure and not being overly-concentrated in one nation. Clearly we can point out individual nations that did terribly compared with the world average, which points towards global investing as a way to mitigate that risk before it happens http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2013/07 ... reversion/
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 8663

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

Sure, the portfolio could last forever. Its just that you may not like the income you get years or decades from now. If the trend toward stock repurchases instead of cash dividends persists, dividend yields will eventually go too low to provide any meaningful income. Whether that occurs over your time horizon is the issue. Ok that is a valid point. Buybacks are usually worse than dividends for normal investors from what I have heard. That might be an area of concern if this trend persists Where did you hear that buybacks are usually worse than dividends? If you can live off dividends from a portfolio then great; if not, then you will have to sell some stock to pay for living costs. It's not an issue, since a dividend is just a forced sale ...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 8663

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

jebmke wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:25 pm Looking at past recessions it appears to be in the range of 10-20%.

In 1969 according to one source I looked at, the S&P 500 paid $21.09. It dropped in 1970 and moved down and up for years. It didn't exceed $21.09 until 1989 -- in real 2018 dollars. So the purchasing power of dividends declined for about 20 years.
Looking at 12-month real dividend per share across other years:

Apr 30, 1911 13.51
Nov 30, 1946 8.27

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend/ http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend/table?f=m

it didn't definitively break out above 13.5 until the 1950s. There were huge real drops after WWI and from 1930 to 1932. Also the 1940s and 1970s saw nasty drops in real terms.
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2973

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

I can’t predict the future, but after the nice run up we’ve had for the past five years or so, it will probably make sense to look for markets that offer better value than the US markets do currently. ~ Ben Carlson Unfortunately, Mr. Carlson said this in July, 2013 and since that time, the U.S. market advanced about 90% while emerging markets did 40%, while Europe the Pacific did about 50%. The good-looking markets didn't deliver -- Mr. Mean Reversion didn't show up. The blog post from Ben Carlson carries on with these words: I don’t recommend wholesale changes to your asset allocation, but if you don’t have any international or emerging market stock exposure, these are two markets that are widely hated by investors at the moment. If you a...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2973

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

JoMoney wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:55 am "...after the nice run up we’ve had for the past five years or so..."
It has been "nice", but the 13% over the most recent 5 year period doesn't look to be a large deviation from the "mean" to me:
Image
The "past five years" quote is from 2013 and reflects the post-2008 stock boom, it's from an article called "Respect the Power of Mean Reversion", note no "magical", I don't know why OP put that in there http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2013/07 ... reversion/
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2973

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

Broadly impacting the entire Japanese economy, over the period of 1995 to 2007, GDP fell from $5.33 trillion to $4.36 trillion in nominal terms,[3] Nominal dollar terms are not really relevant for Japan, what you need to look at is real GDP in Japanese yen terms or PPP dollars at least. Looking at exchange rates and nominal dollars is very misleading. The Japanese economy is not priced in US dollars and does not change in real size just because the exchange rate changes. The same fallacy was used after Brexit to say that the UK economy had somehow become "smaller than France's" just because the exchange rate for the pound dropped a lot, as if the UK economy is priced in Euros and as if its change in size is decided by the exchang...
by david1082b
Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold one stock 25 years
Replies: 68
Views: 8345

Re: Hold one stock 25 years

I would be tempted to go with The York Water Company. They've paid dividends consistently since 1816! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_York_Water_Company It would be interesting to see a total return chart going back that far. M* only starts in 1995 for $YORW http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=YORW&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A10%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmarkSettingId%22%3A%22benchmark%22%2C%22sliderBgSettingId%22%3A%22sliderBg%22%2C%22volumeSettingId%22%3A%22volume%22%2C%22defaultBenchmark%22%3Afalse%2C%22id%22%3A%220P0000061B%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22ST%22%2C%22region%22%3A%22U...
by david1082b
Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?
Replies: 45
Views: 6739

Re: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?

I was about to recommend shares of Berkshire Hathaway, but then I remembered that they added a significant stake in apple stock recently. Regardless, they have relatively little exposure to the tech sector and would be a fairly good pick for your objective. Almost none. Their tech play was IBM but I think they sold that down. Of BH's total NAV, I don't think the Apple investment is more than 1%. Buffett's bridge playing partner is Bill Gates, and he's always said he cannot forecast the cycles of the tech industry to identify broad moats, his key criterion for investment. In that case, considering apple is less than 1% of NAV of BRK, I would strongly recommend BRK. I remember seeing the headlines some time ago, seeing that BRK bought XX mil...
by david1082b
Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 5933

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

My fave Market Watch article:
Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016

Published: June 17, 2010 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ellio ... 2010-06-17
Stopped clocks never stop telling the same time.
by david1082b
Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?
Replies: 45
Views: 7641

Re: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?

I guess one can make their own judgments about what Dalio had to say in 2015 from this: http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/4137954c-ccd4-11e4-b252-00144feab7de.pdf I gather that since that time, things have been unfolding along the lines he discussed and similar to the 1935-1937 period which led to a severe market downdraft beginning in 1937. Page 10 mentions tax increases and fiscal tightening by the government in 1937, with the deficit going from 4% of GDP to zero. This is not what is happening, the deficit is being blown out by tax cuts. Stocks are always risky and can crash at any time even without tightening. Stocks can also not crash when tightening occurs. People who can't take the idea of stock crashes need to avoid stocks enti...
by david1082b
Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 89
Views: 12722

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

grayfox wrote: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:13 am From multpl.com CAPE (P/E10) was about 15 in 2009 which is about the long term average CAPE. 1/CAPE = E10/P = 0.0667 so CAPE was predicting about 6.67% expected real return. Their chart shows -15 !?! Makes no sense.
The chart is *trailing* 10-year rolling, they are comparing actual realised returns for the *previous* ten years with returns expected from CAPE regression models. So the 2009 minus 15 value is based on expected returns from 1999 to 2009 using CAPE .
by david1082b
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Size Factor Not Dead
Replies: 46
Views: 6471

Re: Larry Swedroe: Size Factor Not Dead

I've held DFA US Microcap (DFSCX) (deciles 9 and 10) since July 1995, so I did a check tonight on M* charts. Ten thousand dollars grew to $113,087 compared to $78,070 for the S&P 500 (large cap). Of course, my portfolio was re-balanced quarterly, so my actual returns were smaller. But one could be tempted to imagine a small cap premium considering this period of 23 years. Well, we are not supposed to believe what our eyes see. Count me in as a believer in the Size factor. To pick a different start-date, August 9th 1983 to now saw S&P 500 fund VFINX beat DFSCX http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=DFSCX&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A...
by david1082b
Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 120
Views: 24631

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

cfs wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:40 pm This is interesting:

(1) OLD name: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
(2) NEW name: Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund

To all individual investors, good luck with your Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
I think you can afford to be out of this fund for one day and all other days too. It never made sense to me for Vanguard to have sector funds. Yes the healthcare fund has been their greatest performer ever I think since it started in 1984, but the whole point of diverse funds is that you capture those good sectors guaranteed, not rely on good luck of picking the right sector.
by david1082b
Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 14087

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% from that now. So probably my opinions shouldn’t be trusted. "We don't make anything anymore" already sounded cliche in 1980's films like Wall Street, now it is downright naive. The ideas are worth far more than the actual manufacturing. Put it this way, would you rather invest (or have invested) in Apple or in the anonymous companies in China that make and assemble Apple products? I think a sensible bogle head (unless he or she was very ...
by david1082b
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?
Replies: 45
Views: 7641

Re: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?

Here is Ray's current portfolio, he appears to staying the course. https://finbox.io/ideas/ray-dalio argest holdings as of the most recent Form 13F filing. Analysis limited to top 150 holdings. Ticker Name Holding ($mil) % Of Portfolio VWO VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX F 2,423.7 23.1% SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR 2,349.4 22.4% EEM ISHARES TR 554.8 5.3% IEMG ISHARES INC 522.3 5.0% GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST 491.7 4.7% EWZ ISHARES INC 374.9 3.6% LQD ISHARES TR I've seen some ugly-looking portfolio data in my time but that one takes the cake. I think it's Google Finance that bizarrely changes loads of iShares ETF names to "iShares Inc" or "iShares TR". VWO is emerging equity but here it is called "VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX"...
by david1082b
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?
Replies: 45
Views: 7641

Re: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?

From the less-famous Sandy Jadeja: March 2013: Markets Showing 'Extreme Similarities' With 1929 Crash: Pro https://www.cnbc.com/id/100567928 2016: The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year. 'We are in for some big bumps on the road to 2018' So what's his secret? The spot-on track record https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/the-man-who-accurately-predicted-4-market-crashes-told-us-3-more-dates-to-worry-about-this-year-a7117111.html March 2017: Crash guru warns the Dow could plunge to 14,800 — a sign could come this week https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-guru-warns-the-dow-could-plunge-to-14800-and-todays-a-date-to-watch-2017-03-13 Predicting crashes and comparing everything t...
by david1082b
Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 120
Views: 24631

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

I owned a small amount of the fund for many years, but haven't owned it for several years now. It seemed like there was just something off with the fund - nothing the managers did seemed to ever work, even considering its objective, which did change somewhat in previous years, I believe. So I think it was a case of Vanguard having to do something - anything. I'm curious about the changes - it might be a more interesting fund in its new form. Not something I'd invest a lot in but maybe a little after the changes are implemented. It seems to have been highly correlated with the Metals and Mining ETF $XME that started in 2006, so essentially it delivered what you would expect from mid-cap metal mining stocks http://quotes.morningstar.com/char...
by david1082b
Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 120
Views: 24631

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Bogleheads talked about VGPMX a few times earlier in the year, pointing out how it could put up to 20% of its assets in physical gold bullion, while the Vanguard CEO was saying that Vanguard avoids things like cryptocurrency and physical gold due to there being no cash flow. So it seems this new strategy will not have the ability to buy physical gold? I don't know if Vanguard was influenced by the discussions here. I joked that I was looking forward to Vanguard opening a cryptocurrency mining fund that could put 20% of its assets in crypto tokens. I don't think that the previous version of VGPMX had any physical gold when I looked at it early this year, and I don't know if it had ever had any. It would seem weird to have a fund that could b...
by david1082b
Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4685424

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Some US-listed stocks in freefall:

LOGM LogMeIn, Inc. -25.11%
VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. -17.84%
SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc. -12.16%
Under Armour, Inc. -10.14%

https://finance.yahoo.com/losers/

Don't forget the little stocks that crash each day!
by david1082b
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 4692

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

So in the market cap case, yes, you may fall harder when the losses show up Equal-weight ETFs actually have a history of falling harder during stock market downturns. The industry that is promoting equal-weight seems to have created the myth that equal-weight will somehow shield investors during downturns, but the exact opposite has been the case. Equal-weight $RSP in 2008 versus $SPY: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=RSP&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmarkSettingId%22%3A%22benchmark%22%2C%22sliderBgSettingId%22%3A%22sliderBg%22%2C%22volumeSettingId...
by david1082b
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 4692

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

From the S&P PDF: Annual Outperformance of Equal-Weight Indices S&P SmallCap 600® 0.2% In 2010 an ETF called $EWSC appeared that followed the equal-weight smallcap 600: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=ewsc&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A9%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmarkSettingId%22%3A%22benchmark%22%2C%22sliderBgSettingId%22%3A%22sliderBg%22%2C%22volumeSettingId%22%3A%22volume%22%2C%22defaultBenchmark%22%3Afalse%2C%22id%22%3A%22F00000JXDE%7CFEUSA0000K%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22FE%7CFE%22%2C%22region%22%3A%22USA%22%2C%22name%22%3A%22ARCX%3AEWSC%7CARCX%3AIJR%22%2C%22baseCurrenc...
by david1082b
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4685424

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Am prepared for a wave of "Facebook stock in freefall" threads over the next few days.
by david1082b
Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difference between S&P 500 and. NASDAQ
Replies: 8
Views: 2003

Re: Difference between S&P 500 and. NASDAQ

NASDAQ is a stock exchange - it is smaller than the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 is a stock index managed by Standard & Poors. It is not an exchange. It is an index that represents the 500 largest companies on the US exchanges, in terms of market capitalization. Other indexes exist too like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite index. To be exact, the S&P 500 is not simply the 500 largest stocks on NYSE and Nasdaq, but 500 stocks that are bigger than $6 billion that meet other criteria for the S&P index. Stocks that have no net positive earnings over the last 12 months are not put into the index, same for stocks with limited liquidity. BRK was excluded before 2010 because its stock price was too ...
by david1082b
Tue Jul 24, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 106
Views: 14821

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

One day there will be an iShares ETF for every nation I suppose, but in the meantime people can just get Total World Stock or ACWI.