Search found 275 matches

by david1082b
Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robotics and Space Investing?
Replies: 5
Views: 318

Re: Robotics and Space Investing?

iShares will be there first no doubt. Other than the curious Precious Metals and Mining fund started in 1984, Vanguard usually avoids this kind of niche stuff.
by david1082b
Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEUSX Time To Sell?
Replies: 17
Views: 665

Re: VEUSX Time To Sell?

2000 to 2010 saw USA underperform foreign stocks, so you'd have been piling into foreign stocks in 2010 and avoiding USA if recent performance is used as a guide about where to invest. Now that USA has outperformed since 2010, many people don't like foreign stuff and think USA all the way. The most ...
by david1082b
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency
Replies: 19
Views: 1023

Re: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency

To balance out Bogleheads, I sometimes hang out on Reddit, where everyone is holding individual stocks and the /r/ETFs subreddit has nobody in it. I commented on this once, and someone said, "Expansion of passive investing reduces the pool of money seeking to outperform, thereby making outperforman...
by david1082b
Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 46
Views: 4814

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

It's a bit difficult to consider GE as a strictly U.S. company anymore, and thus a reflection of the U.S. economy. 62% of sales, 50% of assets, and 66% of employees were outside of the United States in 2017, according to a recent United Nations report . They're not called multinationals for nothing...
by david1082b
Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 46
Views: 4814

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, explained in Tuesday's announcement. "Today's change to the DJIA will make the index a better measure of the economy and the stock market." I think GE is still in total market indexes, which are perhaps b...
by david1082b
Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Market Volatility? (Foreign stocks in freefall?)
Replies: 12
Views: 1519

Re: International Market Volatility? (Foreign stocks in freefall?)

This is the original International stocks in free fall thread that appeared after Brexit viewtopic.php?t=193902

"Several European stock indexes as well as Japan's Nikkei are down 8-10%. "

somewhat more of a freefall than today's methinks.
by david1082b
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 93
Views: 8285

Re: Very confused with the current market

Maybe the key is the annual basis but I’m struggling to make sense of this. People using poor strategy can clearly under perform but that means someone else is outperforming. Fees are a factor but shouldn’t be this big of course. How can the average investor do so poorly? I imagine it's a combinati...
by david1082b
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What companies followed Vanguard to no-load???
Replies: 13
Views: 981

Re: What companies followed Vanguard to no-load???

I guess Fidelity has also done so, as well as many others. I had heard somewhere on here that Vanguard initially had the 500 fund as a load fund. Searching around finds this 1995 article by Jack Bogle: In those early days of our history, the Vanguard funds were "load funds," sold exclusively through...
by david1082b
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have to invest in Bond ETF?
Replies: 7
Views: 839

Re: Do you have to invest in Bond ETF?

The stereotypical response would be "no" as well as "VTI and VOO cross over so much you might be better off avoiding VOO and going for mid/small/small-value/foreign/emerging etc.
by david1082b
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3486

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

I've followed the 15 year returns of funds at Morningstar for over a decade and most of the time small caps have outperformed mid caps and large caps. Consequently, I have tilted toward small caps. From my unscientific comparisons, the argument for value over growth depends more on which of them is...
by david1082b
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?
Replies: 14
Views: 757

Re: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?

Thank you for the responses. Let me clarify my question a bit. First of all, it was not my intention to enter into a debate on whether a momentum premium exists, or is harvestable. Actually, I'm not necessarily referring to FF long-short MOM, the hypothetical excess return of a long-only momentum s...
by david1082b
Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising returns for bonds leads to lower stock prices?
Replies: 2
Views: 299

Re: Rising returns for bonds leads to lower stock prices?

This is a quote from June 2013: "When the Fed talks about exiting and rising rates, that's a signal of success in the economy. It's good for companies, but at the same time, higher interest rates could lead to repricing of stocks." https://www.cnbc.com/id/100814973 It seems to be a common thing to s...
by david1082b
Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5014

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

If you don't have a small exposure to it you are leaving yourself open to this risk. Same can be said about any number of cryptocurrencies that are not bitcoin. There is no limit to the number of currencies that can be made. So do we need a small exposure in each of them "just in case"? There are n...
by david1082b
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3486

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

The article says DFCSX when I think it means DFSCX. DFCSX is a different DFA fund, a continental European fund apparently, that started in 1988.
by david1082b
Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 36
Views: 3917

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

1996, when valuations were "extreme" was actually the CHEAPEST point-in-time to buy stocks in the past 22 years. Uh, no. That would be March 2009. The return from 1996 to then was less than cash (short term treasuries) or bonds. Shiller was correct, the S&P 500 was priced to deliver low long term r...
by david1082b
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PUTW to diversify sequence of returns
Replies: 13
Views: 774

Re: PUTW to diversify sequence of returns

In my initial search for information on PUTW, I found this thread where an author supports that the Put-Write strategy is quite competitive with the S&P in the long-run (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=224164&start=50). The CBOE shows a convincing chart that a put-write strategy ca...
by david1082b
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%
Replies: 18
Views: 3164

Re: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%

From late 2015: U.S. stocks are "whistling through the graveyard," according to Jeffrey Gundlach. He's the founder of Doubleline Capital, which manages over $70 billion in assets. "There are plenty of markets that are falling apart and freaking out," said Gundlach Tuesday afternoon on his monthly we...
by david1082b
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3436

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

TSM and S&P 500 are dominated by large cap growth so much that they are effectively large cap growth funds. Total Stock Market is still inside the large blend box, though there is a slight bias to large growth according to M* http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=VTSMX®ion=usa&culture...
by david1082b
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1847

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

If you want easy access to smaller stocks, the small 600 pure value is only 1.67% midcap according to M* http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/ ... ture=en-US
by david1082b
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why large cap if small cap is better?
Replies: 20
Views: 1525

Re: Why large cap if small cap is better?

If you believe this, don’t just buy small-caps. Go short large-caps at the same time at going long small-caps. Isn't the shorting aspect of factor research just there to demonstrate relative historical returns using a continuous long/short portfolio, not an actual portfolio recommendation? Shorting...
by david1082b
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will VTI certainly outperform VOO in the long run?
Replies: 7
Views: 455

Re: Will VTI certainly outperform VOO in the long run?

Total Stock Market VTSMX versus S&P 500 VFINX since Total Stock started in 1992: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VTSMX&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A10%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C...
by david1082b
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Compromised - Committee Chooses to Break Their Own Rules
Replies: 5
Views: 1406

Re: S&P 500 Compromised - Committee Chooses to Break Their Own Rules

Is it really four consecutive quarters of earnings? I found this from a PDF about eligibility for S&P indexes: The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should th...
by david1082b
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 7497

Re: Vanguard employees won’t have an S&P 500 index fund in their 401(k) plan

What benefit does Vanguard get from doing this? VTSAX is an overall better investment than VFIAX, but I seriously doubt they did this purely in the best interest of their employees It seems to be part of the general shift away from S&P indices. Vanguard does have hidden S&P Mid 400 and Small 600 ET...
by david1082b
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 7497

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

Sad. This comment made me :oops: :confused : “The current problem with the Index 500 fund is over 25 percent of the fund is in technology stocks,” while Vanguard Total Stock market fund is better diversified, he said." The S&P 500 index, VFIAX, is 22% Tech The Total Stock Market, VTSAX, is 21% Tech...
by david1082b
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3041

Re: Social Security crossover point has arrived

A similar thread to this was locked yesterday, I guess this will have the same fate, some of the posts on the thread are already very politicised. I am prepared for a deluge of media articles being published year after year telling us about this, with a thread every few days about it being locked. I...
by david1082b
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?
Replies: 56
Views: 4849

Re: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?

Hypothetical question: thirty years from now, will our grandkids be equally frustrated with us for sticking with index funds when investment strategy X proves to be a feasible way for a financially literate investor to beat the 70% of the market invested in index funds in exchange? OP seems to be d...
by david1082b
Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilemma: what if companies stopped going public?
Replies: 27
Views: 2745

Re: Dilemma: what if companies stopped going public?

Between the Sarbanes Oxley restrictions and other increasingly high costs of public company compliance, legal risks, etc, many of the better small companies are either not going public or trying to go private. On the other hand, private equity is awash in cheap capital looking to invest, and are ha...
by david1082b
Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?
Replies: 56
Views: 4849

Re: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?

You could compare a similar portfolio of low-fee funds to the returns of the current portfolio after fees. If that doesn't work, it may be not worth the hassle, since a sentimental attachment seems to have taken hold here. I take it that you can't necessarily just change the portfolio yourself witho...
by david1082b
Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilemma: what if companies stopped going public?
Replies: 27
Views: 2745

Re: Dilemma: what if companies stopped going public?

Here is a list of Uber investors: https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/uber/investors/investors_list A lot of them are on the stock market. Alphabet/Google has a stake held under the obscure name of GV: Back in 2013, Alphabet’s venture capital arm known now as GV, dropped $258 million into Uber’s...
by david1082b
Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI or VIG as a core U.S Stock Market Holding
Replies: 27
Views: 7918

Re: VTI or VIG as a core U.S Stock Market Holding

I know the logical reasons for going with VTI but I also know that in my case investing is part psychological and part rational. If I had gone with VTI I would have felt uneasy investing in it today because I know it has a lot of tech and in a draw down might go down further than VIG. When I looked...
by david1082b
Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434719

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction. 2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VTsmx&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A5%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%...
by david1082b
Thu May 31, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What diversification am I getting?
Replies: 13
Views: 1214

Re: What diversification am I getting?

Yes, agree with most of you, but I am still not really comprehending two things: (1) Why did VEMAX not capture the upsides of China and India during the Great Recession? Were they invested elsewhere then? (2) Why is VG pushing international so hard? Are there structural reasons for pushing this? Fr...
by david1082b
Wed May 30, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434719

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Can someone explain to me again why international bonds, whether hedged or not? Not sure why bonds are being referenced on a "stocks in freefall" thread, but for the heck of it let's look at Vanguard Total International Bond BNDX versus Total Bond Market BND since BNDX started in 2013: http://quote...
by david1082b
Mon May 28, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone recommend Any Social Responsible fund/s?
Replies: 17
Views: 1294

Re: Can anyone recommend Any Social Responsible fund/s?

I am curious if VG has ever considered starting one, forgetting all the arguments about how investing isn't the place for making policy changes. With all my other purchases and life choices I attempt to find spend ethically, I might like to do it with my equity and bond index funds as well, if ther...
by david1082b
Mon May 28, 2018 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 92
Views: 5432

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

Germany leaving the Euro and its own currency being devalued is also a possibility. Ongoing inflation in Italy is also an issue. Germany could also default on foreign creditors. New governments with different attitudes can always happen. Merkel won't be in power forever and is not as popular as in t...
by david1082b
Sat May 26, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 12816

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

I was just taking a look at Vanguard's active alternative to VT, the Global Equity Fund, and it is just outright trouncing VT, or any two index fund mix (if you wanted to go back further than VT) over very long periods despite the extra 30bp or so cost. It's occasions like that that also cause me t...
by david1082b
Tue May 22, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 5269

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

Just came across an interesting Credit Suisse report, whose conclusions echo some of the points raised in the piece by Arnott. Mauboussin et al. conclude: Using historical numbers, investors who bought the stocks that the committee removed from the S&P 500 (that still traded) and who sold short the...
by david1082b
Tue May 22, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 12816

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

According to the Credit Suisse Global Returns Yearbook, from 1900 through 2017 (i.e. over a century): The total real return on a total world stock portfolio, including both US and ex-US stock markets, would have been 5.2%/year. The total real return on a US-only stock portfolio would have been 6.5%...
by david1082b
Tue May 22, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11856

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

The question is: can S&P500 profit double in 7 years and if the borrowing cost stay the same. It doesn't seems likely. Could S&P500 profit reduction by 50% and borrowing cost double during the same period? If we had a recession and inflation goes up, it will more seems likely. Earnings didn't doubl...
by david1082b
Tue May 22, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 12816

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

Theory: The Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX] If they ride the Total World long-term, though, they're going to consistently be invested in the winners and grow with their market weight (whether U.S., Canada, Australia, China, etc.). If the U.S. market increases to 60% or 70% they ride th...
by david1082b
Mon May 21, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434719

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I don’t take it that way. For a buy and hold investor both can be true: When the market is going up you are rebalancing to your predetermined asset allocation. If, for example, your AA is 60/40 you don’t let it mushroom to 80/20. This is being “afraid when others are greedy”. When the market is dow...
by david1082b
Mon May 21, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11856

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

M*'s total return chart has $10k in VFINX in 21st Dec 2011 turning into $24,794 now. I think this is nearly 147% return? http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VFINX&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%...
by david1082b
Mon May 21, 2018 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11856

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

The OP stated clearly that 10% nominal return is the historical average for the S&P 500, so you would expect a doubling every seven years nominally, but the important thing to note is that the 10% historical return includes dividend payouts. The price return was not all of the 10%, but merely a comp...
by david1082b
Sun May 20, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20216

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

During this year's annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting, Buffett said: "Bonds are a terrible investment at anywhere near current yields.” He continued, “The only time bonds were interesting was in the early to mid-1980’s" So what should we invest in besides stocks? Bonds were pretty interesting from 2...
by david1082b
Sat May 19, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20216

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

WB did seem to recommend against non-US stocks here: Most employer-run 401(k) retirement plans offer multiple mutual funds with different assets strategies, but Buffett warned against going with those options, saying "you'll do very well with an S&P index." He added: "And don't let them talk to you ...
by david1082b
Thu May 17, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank Interest Rates — when will they go up?
Replies: 27
Views: 3376

Re: Bank Interest Rates — when will they go up?

Ally has been going up, the thread about Ally gets bumped every time. CD rates have gone higher.

Fed Funds rate is 1.69% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

Difficult to expect short term savings to be higher than that. Go for 5 year or 7 year CDs for the best rates.
by david1082b
Wed May 16, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 39
Views: 3070

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

Mr. Swedroe's Conclusion: "My conclusion is that the most recent 10 years of performance is likely just another of those occasionally occurring but fairly long periods in which the value premium is negative." It is difficult (and expensive) to try to "beat the market." Best wishes. Taylor Meanwhile...
by david1082b
Sun May 13, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTWSX Question [Vanguard Total World Stock Index]
Replies: 15
Views: 1528

Re: VTWSX Question

First, let's look at the past record, for what it is. Portfolio 1 is your present fund, Target Retirement 2050. Portfolio 2 is your proposed replacement, Total World Stock Index Fund. Source Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2009 - Apr 2018). The time period was automatically adjusted based on the av...