Search found 124 matches

by david1082b
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Not to Get Rich - Mark Twain
Replies: 17
Views: 3379

Re: How Not to Get Rich - Mark Twain

This quote from a review of the book reminds me of the WallStreetbets forum on Reddit: Both he and his characters run on a picaresque impulse: try something crazy, fail at it, laugh about it, move along https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/how-mark-twain-tried-to-get-rich-quick-again-and-agai...
by david1082b
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is VTI really "total stock market" with only 1478 holdings?
Replies: 12
Views: 1717

Re: Is VTI really "total stock market" with only 1478 holdings?

This is a big list on Vanguard of all their mutual funds so you can look at details from the 20-ton elephant's mouth: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/name/month-end-returns ETFs: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/etf/name/month-end-returns Penny stocks/OT...
by david1082b
Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 6791

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

And because the mining hardware is, apparently, purpose-built to mine bitcoin only, the large and expensive mining installations can't be repurposed to anything else. A significant proportion of bitcoin mining hardware simply consists of rows upon rows of graphics cards. Those can obviously be repu...
by david1082b
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 69
Views: 5584

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

Use SDY. It destroys SPY long term. https://i.imgur.com/7ZaFFQW.png They look nearly identical to me. I'm not sure where your data came from, but here are two links to M*. http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=SDY®ion=USA&culture=en_US http://performance.morningstar...
by david1082b
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correction vs. Prolonged Bear Market
Replies: 23
Views: 1469

Re: Correction vs. Prolonged Bear Market

A prolonged bear market is guaranteed at some point, judging by history, it would be absurd to deny the idea imo. The chance is never less than 100% since it's just something that happens sometimes.
by david1082b
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expecting a crash...but staying the course
Replies: 8
Views: 1602

Re: Expecting a crash...but staying the course

Removing five best days out of 72 years of investing would reduce cumulative compound returns - without dividend investments- by nearly 50%. Ignoring dividends makes no sense really. Dividends have made up a huge amount of total returns historically. If you missed those few and fabulous 60 months, ...
by david1082b
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?
Replies: 55
Views: 5195

Re: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?

I've commented on here about O which has almost Buffett like returns since 1994. However with rates going up it's gone from $67 to $47 in no time at all with likely more pain to come. How long until REITs may again become good DCA options? O has outperformed BRK.A a lot since O was first listed htt...
by david1082b
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip
Replies: 27
Views: 2691

Re: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip

but may I ask why use a DD of 50%? (in the Great Depression the market fell by more than 80% - I know this is not at all probable, but wouldn't it be possible as a black swan event?) If you include dividends and the deflation, 1929-1932 was not actually as bad as all that. The problem is that price...
by david1082b
Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 35
Views: 2742

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

Looking at the 1 year fordward estimated P/E given in the second PDF: MSCI US Small Cap Value 17.45 MSCI USA 18.89 (for January 31st). The forward p/es will be lower now after the stock declines no doubt. It could be that one-year forward P/E is not always so useful, due to notorious over-estimation...
by david1082b
Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3209

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php Shiller PE is currently at 31 to 32. According to Guru focus, this suggests that stock returns will be around negative 2 to 3 percent over the next 8 years. How seriously do people take Shiller PE, and what it implies about future returns? Why? :happy This t...
by david1082b
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3209

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance came out in 1996. Didn't it first get published in March 2000? All the sources I find say it was published then, not in 1996. Shiller did publish a paper in the summer of 1996 that said this: The fitted value for today of the regression is –.479, implying an exp...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 96
Views: 10954

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

I remember a some Forum posts that mocked Joe Davis's prediction when it came out but that 70% call looks good in retrospect now. Also both Vanguard and Schwab have been cautioning investors for some time that in 2018 volatility was very likely to increase although the VIX had been hanging at histo...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 1550
Replies: 11
Views: 1481

Re: S&P 1550

1,000 Dow as support/resistance was certainly a meme for a long time. As recently as 2010 someone was saying:
Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ellio ... 2010-06-17
by david1082b
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 1550
Replies: 11
Views: 1481

Re: S&P 1550

It would take a pretty big bear mauling. However, if you go back and look at the parabolic rise from 5 years ago it seems almost probable. 1800 would be a tough nut to crack through. Perhaps years and years of slow market declines? Me thinks 2800 was the top, perhaps a retest on a meltup. I never q...
by david1082b
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1261711

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wish a moderator would put this 7 year old thread out of its misery and lock it. If you don't like it, why read it? It's not like there's a shortage of other threads. You don't have to read a thread to be annoyed by it - it gets bumped to the top whenever someone posts in it and there is no abili...
by david1082b
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Weak Dollar, after likely four future interest rate hike?
Replies: 8
Views: 1054

Re: Why Weak Dollar, after likely four future interest rate hike?

Rate expectations are not the only issue, inflation expectations can also be important. USD declined a lot from 2002 to late 2007, while the Fed put its target rate up generally. Other stuff was going on, oil and housing inflation among them. Late 2011 to 2016 saw the USD surge, while prices for oil...
by david1082b
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep your eye on the owner, not the dog
Replies: 31
Views: 4758

Re: Keep your eye on the owner, not the dog

In the long we all are dead. No one knows nothing.
by david1082b
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stealing from the kids for our retirement [High valuations => depressed future returns expectations]
Replies: 54
Views: 5308

Re: Stealing from the kids for our retirement

does it ask why stock prices are so high? why not blame "the kids" for buying at such high prices and bidding things up? fewer buyers would mean lower prices. instead of buying at such high prices they could pay their student debts down, stocks might even be cheaper by then. the idea that kids are b...
by david1082b
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bitcoin: Digital Gold or Fool's Gold" blog by Joe Davis, chief economist at Vanguard
Replies: 4
Views: 587

Re: "Bitcoin: Digital Gold or Fool's Gold" blog by Joe Davis, chief economist at Vanguard

The investment case for cryptocurrencies is weak. Unlike stocks and bonds, currencies generate no cash flows such as interest payments or dividends that can explain their prices. National currencies derive their prices from the underlying economic activity of the countries that issue them. Cryptocu...
by david1082b
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 772

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

Anyway, I think that global indexes are better than focusing on individual nations and trying to "outperform" by picking one that you think is better. A balanced Lifestrategy fund like the 60% equity version has a lot of global diversification, so do the Target Retirement funds (though they are home...
by david1082b
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 772

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

I used Charles Stanley to make a comparison chart of two HSBC funds since 2000, All-Share and FTSE 100, both are Accumulation versions including dividends, November 2000 was the earliest start time available: https://i.imgur.com/BT7dhnv.png This is a Google Finance chart of HSBC FTSE All-share Acc v...
by david1082b
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 772

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

However, his book focuses on the US market, with heavy reference to the S&P 500 too. Looking at the FTSE UK All Share *and* FTSE Developed World charts... These DON'T have the same steady growth and history as the S&P 500. You could've invested one year, and 15 years later still made zero returns. ...
by david1082b
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 86
Views: 10012

Re: RBD alert

I'm kind of disappointed my EM funds are down less than my US funds today, because I wanted to buy more of them. I thought EM was more volatile? In the last week EEM is down more than VTI... you can still buy more of it if you have enough government-controlled printed paper "money". 8-) :moneybag
by david1082b
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Replies: 21
Views: 1818

Re: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?

Japapnese stocks are definitely cheap-er as of right now 8-)
by david1082b
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Replies: 21
Views: 1818

Re: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?

This February 2014 article in the Telegraph had Russia being the cheapest in the world for example: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10610610/Worlds-cheapest-stock-markets-Where-are-shares-cheap.html That one didn't work out too well in terms of "buy low", since Russia ke...
by david1082b
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Replies: 21
Views: 1818

Re: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?

I couldn't find a WSJ with that exact title but I searched around and found some WSJ articles that fit this: The stars have aligned for Japan’s stock market. And things look set to stay that way. sneaky archive.is snapshot: http://archive.is/Sgc3a https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-one-major-stock-mar...
by david1082b
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 Index still seen at 3000+ by year-end?
Replies: 19
Views: 1561

Re: S&P 500 Index still seen at 3000+ by year-end?

In early January, the 2018 year-end forecast by various groups for the S&P Index was around 3000+. Views on whether last week upended those year-end forecasts? S&P has loads of indices, which one do you mean? 8-) Searching S&P indexes gets spindices.com with this as the site description: To date, w...
by david1082b
Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bitcoin is my potential pension"
Replies: 54
Views: 7804

Re: "Bitcoin is my potential pension"

As bitcoin and its many competitors are hitting the mainstream, a once-lucrative market is turning instead into perhaps the world’s most volatile — what some economists call a speculative bubble in line with the dot-com craze of the late 1990s. Investors are bidding up prices of bitcoin and its man...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool ETF Debuts (TMFC)
Replies: 11
Views: 1437

Re: Motley Fool ETF Debuts (TMFC)

I'm struggling to understand how they arrived at the backtested performance for this particular 100- stock index: a 100-stock index that consists of companies that have been recommended by The Motley Fool website or its analysts. Components of the index must either be recommended as “buy” by the Mot...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 129
Views: 32891

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]

Number of bonds 255 Number of stocks 81 how is that possible? that's less number of bonds and stocks than the regular wellington fund... With only $600 million in assets, they may be waiting for more inflows before going into more assets. I think the original Vanguard 500 fund didn't go into all st...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)
Replies: 59
Views: 6385

Re: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:30 pm
Boeing, McDonald's, Apple, Chevron, and Facebook are among the companies scheduled to report earnings later this week. VTSAX will most likely go up significantly.
One of my main beliefs is "never make return predictions", since reality has a way of smashing them.
by david1082b
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 7909

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

Lots of people on here smarter than me, but when Mr. Buffet says buying bonds is like buying stocks with a 50 pe, when Mr. Gross says he is shorting Treasuries, and Mr. Greenspan says stocks and bonds are bubbles, I at least pause. Many things have happened in the pas 10 yrs that have never happene...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 7909

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

From 2010: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a “canary in the mine” that may signal further gains in interest rates. Higher yields reflect investor concerns over “this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,” Gree...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Size Premium Persists
Replies: 27
Views: 3029

Re: Larry Swedroe: Size Premium Persists

(2) When I research S&P 600 Small-Cap Indexes I notice that Vanguard's ETF VIOO has a 0.15% expense ratio, but the mutual fund (VSMSX) has an expense ratio of 0.08%. Why is this? Seems backwards. Why would anyone buy the ETF? Minimum investment: $5,000,000 https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/si...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 331
Views: 57240

Re: Retreat to cash

1. Hussman has done well thru the two complete market cycles ending in 2000 and 2008. This third cycle is yet incomplete. Hussman Strategic Growth Fund HSGFX has returned a total of 9% since July 2000, so it would take a monumental turnaround by the end of the next market cycle to get more gains th...
by david1082b
Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Confusion
Replies: 9
Views: 647

Re: Stock Dividend Confusion

First of all you actually received the dividend today (February 1st) but the ex-dividend date was January 9th and that was the date the stock price changed to reflect the dividend. The price at the opening bell on the ex-dividend date is lowered from the closing price by the amount of the dividend ...
by david1082b
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman: Vanguard, Other Bitcoin Deniers Will Eat Their Words
Replies: 47
Views: 6044

Re: Ric Edelman: Vanguard, Other Bitcoin Deniers Will Eat Their Words

Vanguard also doesn't have a gold fund, a Euro fund, or a Yen fund. It doesn't mean that they are gold deniers, Euro/Yen deniers, or Bitcoin deniers. As Buckey said, they do not believe in investing in unproductive assets like currencies: "We tend to stay away from assets that don't have underlying...
by david1082b
Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold IRA with pretty low costs
Replies: 16
Views: 1343

Re: Gold IRA with pretty low costs

I wanted to get into gold 5 years ago around $1700 and oz. I chickened out and bought silver coins instead. As it turns out, both were equally horrible investments except I can sell the silver coins to craigslist collectors who will pay more than any dealer. Oh, gold is now right about $1300, so ta...
by david1082b
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?
Replies: 33
Views: 2476

Re: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?

I just wish everyone would stop talking about it...but I fear those days are far away.
by david1082b
Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Turn 75,000 into 1 million
Replies: 42
Views: 6793

Re: Turn 75,000 into 1 million

The first 22 years of S&P 500 fund VFINX saw it turn $10k into nearly $200k http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=Vfinx&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22na...
by david1082b
Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 4012

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund

Stuck for a good Valentine's gift this year? Look no further than the Vanguard US Multifactor ETF! Sure to impress with its good value and high quality, this small package packs a big punch that will be sure to create romantic momentum for anyone who buys it.
by david1082b
Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 114
Views: 10105

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

[quote="In 2014, way before the bitcoin craze hit"[/quote] The Bitcoin craze had been going on for several years before that, it was mentioned all the time. There was a huge runup in 2013 from $15 to over $800. If that wasn't a craze then OK, but the MSM were going bonkers over it at the time, then ...
by david1082b
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 2879

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

Among them are McDonald's--at $74, it's selling for a staggering 83 times its earnings per share for the previous 12 months “The whole growth-stock-multiple fad is crazy,” Neff tells Forbes. “People are just buying quality companies at any price and hanging on forever. I bought McDonald's at a P/E ...
by david1082b
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 237
Views: 20529

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

That low cost index fund investing is the "only" way to go. One word... oh well three words. Wellesley Income Fund. Trev H Im not aware of anything in the BH philosophy that would argue againat Wellesley. It recommends using index funds "when possible" and encourages low costs. Wellesley is certain...
by david1082b
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel -Investing In Overpriced World WSJ
Replies: 20
Views: 2943

Re: Malkiel -Investing In Overpriced World WSJ

Would be nice if you could copy/paste the article content here for those of us who don't have a WSJ subscription. Archive.is is still not blocked by WSJ from archiving it http://archive.is/FMlTQ Much of the world—particularly emerging markets, with their younger populations—is growing faster than t...
by david1082b
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA
Replies: 43
Views: 3619

Re: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA

broslami wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:41 pm
I dont own any Netflix since it doesn't make any sense to me.
To make a silly joke, I think you would do well to move into Wellesley Income and chill.
by david1082b
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 33
Views: 2839

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

In any case, why does Vanguard feel the need for concentrated sector funds anyway? Aren't they represented in general index funds? The healthcare fund might have returned 16% annualized since 1984, but I would still argue that it was not a sensible thing to offer. Why not let other fund providers ha...
by david1082b
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 33
Views: 2839

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

There is no sugar coating. Gold Silver other assets like these are not held by vanguard Vanguard offers a precious metals and mining fund, VGPMX. Based on my results, I wish they hadn't. But, it's another example of "poor timing." Perhaps, but Vanguard has a number of sector funds. There is not muc...