Search found 362 matches

by david1082b
Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...
Replies: 17
Views: 2200

Re: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...

"In highly efficient full-production places like the U.S., the stock market is reflective somewhat to what the economy is doing. From 2000 to 2011 the US economy grew but the total stock market returned nothing pretty much. Was that really reflective of the economy? Is that a reason to be wary of U...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is President Jimmy Carter a Boglehead?
Replies: 22
Views: 1721

Re: Is President Jimmy Carter a Boglehead?

I found this NYTimes article from 1976 about investments: If he is elected President, Jimmy Carter says he plans to dispose of his stocks, divest himself of his peanut business and divert royalties from his popular autobiography to a philanthropic foundation. Mr. Carter owns outright or shares an in...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Betting Against Beta
Replies: 12
Views: 1402

Re: Larry Swedroe: Betting Against Beta

Since the current bull market is rather long in the tooth, would betting against beta be market timing if an investor chose to sell his high beta funds now? DMW I have often seen "long in the tooth" used for the post-2009 boom, and I just searched it and found three articles by Mark Hulbert: Octobe...
by david1082b
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mark Cuban bullish on Netflix and Amazon
Replies: 19
Views: 1778

Re: Mark Cuban bullish on Netflix and Amazon

If you're bullish on stocks surely you'd want to load up as much as possible. Lots of cash on the sidelines? For what? If you're waiting for a crash then you ain't exactly bullish?
by david1082b
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 9647

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

I look forward to a 10%, 20%, even a 30% drop in SP500. Did you hear the one about the stock market that went down 90%? First it went down 80%, and then it got cut in half. Suppose I heard about it. But it could have been fake news. So, that never happened. Sarcasm aside, why does it matter what ha...
by david1082b
Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3707

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

For those who don't believe valuation matters, I suppose this excellent article can just be discarded. But for those who are a little bit more philosophical about how recency bias from this 10 year bull market might cloud ones thinking, the chart comparing SWR vs CAEP, is outstanding. CAEP = about ...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 9647

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

Now, Vanguard says the chances of one by late 2020 are between 30 and 40 percent. That’s Vanguard’s highest-ever estimate for that time frame, Mr. Davis said. What was their estimate in the middle of 2005 for a recession by late 2007? Or didn't they have economists back then making these prediction...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9781

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Why is such a small country/market having such a disproportionate effect on the US stock market today? I’m not doing anything with my investments but it baffles me why events like this are so (temporarily) toxic at home. 40% to 50% of days are down pretty much, is it really Turkish problems causing...
by david1082b
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELP!!!!! Need to find documentation of index superiority
Replies: 32
Views: 2689

Re: HELP!!!!! Need to find documentation of index superiority

thanks to ignition and hicabob. I'm bookmarking this post because of those two links you provided. Excellent. Any thoughts on why of all the countries listed, India and Japan's index funds underperformed the active managed funds? 56.6% of India's active management beat their version of the S&P and ...
by david1082b
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Question] Does History at any point give an example of a complete market crash?
Replies: 8
Views: 839

Re: [Question] Does History at any point give an example of a complete market crash?

War destruction and hyperinflation meant Germany, Austria and Japan had nearly minus 100% return from 1914 to 1950 apparently. The market crashes didn't cause their problems but were a result of them (places like the Soviet Union and Mao's China closed down their markets but those nations were not d...
by david1082b
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"
Replies: 15
Views: 2365

Re: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"

The CAPE ratio is as high as it’s ever been with the exception of 1929 and 2000. This looks wrong. 1997 to 1999 saw very similar or higher numbers as well. It was above the current number at the start of every month of 1998 for example: Current: Aug 6, 2018 33.13 Dec 1, 1998 38.82 Nov 1, 1998 37.37...
by david1082b
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 27
Views: 2939

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I think how much valuation matters is dependent upon your investment horizon and your distribution of your contributions. I agree with Packer. When I hear friends say "valuations don't matter," I believe they are suggesting it doesn't matter today (don't go out an sell everything today, nor go 100%...
by david1082b
Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 171
Views: 20711

Re: AliBaba

Did it ever enter one of the Vanguard funds? I hope not. No Chinese stocks should enter any index funds given the Chinese govt shenanigans. Chinese stocks make up 3.3% of Total World Stock right now https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vt We can see that Alibaba makes it to the first...
by david1082b
Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7527

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

All investing involves risk of losing money and there is always the risk that the entire global portfolio of investments might lose money over the course of many decades. A global portfolio has often helped reduce single-nation risk and is the theory used to construct Vanguard's Target Retirement an...
by david1082b
Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8559

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

Yeah, this time it's different. Current S&P 500 CAPE is 32.67, and looking at early the summer of 1929 and summer of 1997 we can see very different returns for the next few years from the same numbers. So yes in the past it was different when there was a similar runup to such a high-looking level. ...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 787

Re: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?

These are Jack Bogle's words on the matter: given our obvious need to enlist broker support for an underwriting, the [S&P 500 index] Trust carried an initial sales charge (low by mutual fund standards in those days—6% on smaller investments, tapered down to 1% on investments of $1 million or more). ...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DJIA Bubble Chart
Replies: 9
Views: 1090

Re: DJIA Bubble Chart

Price to book value for S&P 500 since 2000:

Current: 3.40
Mean: 2.77
Median: 2.76
Min: 1.78 (Mar 2009)
Max: 5.06 (Mar 2000)

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?
Replies: 11
Views: 1084

Re: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?

An investor in August 2013 who sorted all publicly traded firms by their market caps from largest to smallest, selected the top 1%, invested equally in each of those 67 stocks, and then held that portfolio would have gained an annualized 13% over the next five years. In contrast, someone who employ...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DJIA Bubble Chart
Replies: 9
Views: 1090

Re: DJIA Bubble Chart

High-profit margin stocks like Apple and Visa and Microsoft are in the Dow now, earnings matter more than sales. Estimate of forward price to operating earnings is 16.47 for the Dow, though I don't have numbers for the year 2000 http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html People can argue...
by david1082b
Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3256

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Great easy to see analysis showing that bond heavy portfolios are riskier than equity heavy portfolios! Since this is past data, we could say that they *were* often more risky, not *are* (since future performance is not known I believe). A few times the bond-heavy portfolio seemed to provide a safe...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next trillion market cap, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG?
Replies: 6
Views: 769

Re: Next trillion market cap, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG?

They will all have trillion-dollar market caps at some point probably, same for Berkshire Hathaway and others.
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market price to sales ratio highest since dot com bubble
Replies: 3
Views: 308

Re: Market price to sales ratio highest since dot com bubble

Looking closer at margins: The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q1 2018 is 11.1%. If 11.1% is the actual net profit margin for the quarter, it will mark the highest net profit margin for the S&P 500 since FactSet began tracking this data in Q3 2008. https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-re...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market price to sales ratio highest since dot com bubble
Replies: 3
Views: 308

Re: Market price to sales ratio highest since dot com bubble

Profit margins are higher than 2000, so more earnings are made as a % of sales. Some take that as a bad thing, saying margins should "revert to the mean". That brings into question what is the sustainable long-term profit margin. Price to book is quite a bit lower than in 2000 www.multpl.com/s-p-500...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 112
Views: 10152

Re: Heading for a top?

That's just one index. S&P is only about half of the weighted market cap of world securities. Add in international and developing markets, and it's a bear market. We aren't the only country in the world. Looking at VTWSX (Vanguard World Stock Index Fund) as a proxy, close on January 26 (high point ...
by david1082b
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 112
Views: 10152

Re: Heading for a top?

Also, equities have been in somewhat of a bear market since February. Hardly. The lowest closing price for the S&P500 YTD was 2,581.00 on February 8th. Just prior to that, the highest closing price YTD for the index was 2,872.87 on January 26th. This represents a drop from high to low of 291.87, or...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2178

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

tell that to the japanese investors from 1990 Getting back to the subject of investment reutrns, Japanese who had a global portfolio did OK since 1989. The blog post that seemed to inspire the thread title was based on the idea of getting global exposure and not being overly-concentrated in one nat...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 5707

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

Sure, the portfolio could last forever. Its just that you may not like the income you get years or decades from now. If the trend toward stock repurchases instead of cash dividends persists, dividend yields will eventually go too low to provide any meaningful income. Whether that occurs over your t...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 5707

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

Looking at past recessions it appears to be in the range of 10-20%. In 1969 according to one source I looked at, the S&P 500 paid $21.09. It dropped in 1970 and moved down and up for years. It didn't exceed $21.09 until 1989 -- in real 2018 dollars. So the purchasing power of dividends declined for...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2178

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

I can’t predict the future, but after the nice run up we’ve had for the past five years or so, it will probably make sense to look for markets that offer better value than the US markets do currently. ~ Ben Carlson Unfortunately, Mr. Carlson said this in July, 2013 and since that time, the U.S. mar...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2178

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

" ...after the nice run up we’ve had for the past five years or so... " It has been "nice", but the 13% over the most recent 5 year period doesn't look to be a large deviation from the "mean" to me: https://image.ibb.co/kajeMK/ia.png The "past five years" quote is from 2013 and reflects the post-20...
by david1082b
Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2178

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

Broadly impacting the entire Japanese economy, over the period of 1995 to 2007, GDP fell from $5.33 trillion to $4.36 trillion in nominal terms,[3] Nominal dollar terms are not really relevant for Japan, what you need to look at is real GDP in Japanese yen terms or PPP dollars at least. Looking at ...
by david1082b
Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold one stock 25 years
Replies: 68
Views: 6064

Re: Hold one stock 25 years

I would be tempted to go with The York Water Company. They've paid dividends consistently since 1816! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_York_Water_Company It would be interesting to see a total return chart going back that far. M* only starts in 1995 for $YORW http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fu...
by david1082b
Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?
Replies: 42
Views: 4095

Re: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?

I was about to recommend shares of Berkshire Hathaway, but then I remembered that they added a significant stake in apple stock recently. Regardless, they have relatively little exposure to the tech sector and would be a fairly good pick for your objective. Almost none. Their tech play was IBM but ...
by david1082b
Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 4794

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

My fave Market Watch article:
Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016

Published: June 17, 2010 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ellio ... 2010-06-17
Stopped clocks never stop telling the same time.
by david1082b
Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?
Replies: 45
Views: 6103

Re: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?

I guess one can make their own judgments about what Dalio had to say in 2015 from this: http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/4137954c-ccd4-11e4-b252-00144feab7de.pdf I gather that since that time, things have been unfolding along the lines he discussed and similar to the 1935-1937 period which le...
by david1082b
Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8559

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

From multpl.com CAPE (P/E10) was about 15 in 2009 which is about the long term average CAPE. 1/CAPE = E10/P = 0.0667 so CAPE was predicting about 6.67% expected real return. Their chart shows -15 !?! Makes no sense. The chart is *trailing* 10-year rolling, they are comparing actual realised returns...
by david1082b
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Size Factor Not Dead
Replies: 46
Views: 4499

Re: Larry Swedroe: Size Factor Not Dead

I've held DFA US Microcap (DFSCX) (deciles 9 and 10) since July 1995, so I did a check tonight on M* charts. Ten thousand dollars grew to $113,087 compared to $78,070 for the S&P 500 (large cap). Of course, my portfolio was re-balanced quarterly, so my actual returns were smaller. But one could be ...
by david1082b
Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 61
Views: 5610

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

This is interesting: (1) OLD name: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (2) NEW name: Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund To all individual investors, good luck with your Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund , y gracias por leer ~cfs~ I think you can afford to be out of this fund for one day and...
by david1082b
Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10766

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...
by david1082b
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?
Replies: 45
Views: 6103

Re: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?

Here is Ray's current portfolio, he appears to staying the course. https://finbox.io/ideas/ray-dalio argest holdings as of the most recent Form 13F filing. Analysis limited to top 150 holdings. Ticker Name Holding ($mil) % Of Portfolio VWO VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX F 2,423.7 23.1% SPY SPDR S&P 500...
by david1082b
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?
Replies: 45
Views: 6103

Re: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?

From the less-famous Sandy Jadeja: March 2013: Markets Showing 'Extreme Similarities' With 1929 Crash: Pro https://www.cnbc.com/id/100567928 2016: The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year. 'We are in for some big bumps on the road to 2018' So wh...
by david1082b
Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 61
Views: 5610

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

I owned a small amount of the fund for many years, but haven't owned it for several years now. It seemed like there was just something off with the fund - nothing the managers did seemed to ever work, even considering its objective, which did change somewhat in previous years, I believe. So I think...
by david1082b
Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 61
Views: 5610

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Bogleheads talked about VGPMX a few times earlier in the year, pointing out how it could put up to 20% of its assets in physical gold bullion, while the Vanguard CEO was saying that Vanguard avoids things like cryptocurrency and physical gold due to there being no cash flow. So it seems this new str...
by david1082b
Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6752
Views: 1469310

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Some US-listed stocks in freefall:

LOGM LogMeIn, Inc. -25.11%
VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. -17.84%
SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc. -12.16%
Under Armour, Inc. -10.14%

https://finance.yahoo.com/losers/

Don't forget the little stocks that crash each day!
by david1082b
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 3648

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

So in the market cap case, yes, you may fall harder when the losses show up Equal-weight ETFs actually have a history of falling harder during stock market downturns. The industry that is promoting equal-weight seems to have created the myth that equal-weight will somehow shield investors during do...
by david1082b
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 3648

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

From the S&P PDF: Annual Outperformance of Equal-Weight Indices S&P SmallCap 600® 0.2% In 2010 an ETF called $EWSC appeared that followed the equal-weight smallcap 600: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=ewsc&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A9%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNa...
by david1082b
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6752
Views: 1469310

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Am prepared for a wave of "Facebook stock in freefall" threads over the next few days.
by david1082b
Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difference between S&P 500 and. NASDAQ
Replies: 8
Views: 707

Re: Difference between S&P 500 and. NASDAQ

NASDAQ is a stock exchange - it is smaller than the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 is a stock index managed by Standard & Poors. It is not an exchange. It is an index that represents the 500 largest companies on the US exchanges, in terms of market capitalization. Other indexes exist too like...
by david1082b
Tue Jul 24, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9781

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

One day there will be an iShares ETF for every nation I suppose, but in the meantime people can just get Total World Stock or ACWI.
by david1082b
Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 23588

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Tesla is insolvent. Tesla is nearly out of cash. Short the stock. This is Bogleheads, shorting stock is not in the playbook. I'd venture that now may not be the best possible time to buy either Tesla stock or a Tesla car. This is Bogleheads, it is never the best possible time to buy an individual s...