Search found 15 matches

by david1082b
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 2834

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

Huh, it's almost like a record high CAPE actually did predict something... CAPE doesn't have to be at record highs for its proponents to predict bad returns, I mean here is Shiller from the summer of 1996: "Today, with a ratio of 29.72, well above average though not at record levels. The fitted val...
by david1082b
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 3512

Re: Does it look like a bubble to you?

This is a linear chart, not a log chart. Linear means that going from 10 to 12 takes up the same space as doubling from 2 to 4. Why should a chart represent a 20% increase the same as a doubling? The vertical movement of the line as it moves to the right will look more and more extreme the higher th...
by david1082b
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it 1996 yet?
Replies: 21
Views: 2490

Re: Is it 1996 yet?

Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when i...
by david1082b
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond fixed rate 0.10% [November rate announced]
Replies: 31
Views: 4175

Re: I Bond fixed rate 0.10%

One thing that turns me off regarding Treasury Direct is that they make it clear that if there is fraud in your account, it's your problem. So it seems that is not quite accurate, if the quote below is correct:. Code of Federal Regulations 31 CFR 363.17 TITLE 31--MONEY AND FINANCE: TREASURY CHAPTER...
by david1082b
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today
Replies: 24
Views: 1871

Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Mr Prechter, what a legend: Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016 Published: June 17, 2010 "The only way for the developing configuration to satisfy a perfect set of Fibonacci time relationships is for the stock market to fall over the next six years and bottom in 2016." "This bear market is...
by david1082b
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...
Replies: 73
Views: 9047

Re: Buffett "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...

I think this is the source of OP's text: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-favorite-market-metric-suggests-investors-are-playing-with-fire-2017-10-31 When it’s in the 70% to 80% range, it’s go time. When it moves well above 100%, it’s time to tap the brakes" The link has a chart that...
by david1082b
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 7352

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

This is Bill McNabb from that Vanguard post I linked to earlier: as Tim said, over the next decade we expect returns might be a couple percentage points lower than the long-term averages. And based on where we are today, that's, we think, a pretty good bet. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't be in ...
by david1082b
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 7352

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

We need to make sure that Larry gets this prediction on his "Sure Things" list for 2018, assuming the crash doesn't happen before we get out of 2017. We're in the most dangerous month now. [cue the videos of the Hindenburg in flames]. The articles made it clear that Bill McNabb means a correction i...
by david1082b
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 7352

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

I found this from the Vanguard website published in March: Equities: Are we due for a correction? With global share markets performing strongly, many investors wonder if it's time to change strategies. In this video – an excerpt from a webcast that aired in the United States recently – Vanguard CEO ...
by david1082b
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 3110

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

Chart of S&P 500 from 1927 to today this chart doesn't include dividends, and it repeats the common habit of adjusting for inflation at the same time as ignoring dividends (would you ignore interest you received on your cash while calculating how much money you have after inflation?). this makes it...
by david1082b
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends growing at higher rates than inflation?
Replies: 9
Views: 847

Re: Dividends growing at higher rates than inflation?

Since 1990, S&P 500 dividend growth per year:

Mean: 5.87%
Median: 6.06%

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-growth
by david1082b
Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 16321

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

This made me wonder how often, in the historical data, we've seen a decade of real [/b] returns at 3%. I can't recall seeing numbers like that talked about very often, so I spent some time with https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ to look.... I think most people have no idea how often real 1...
by david1082b
Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not just buy BRK.B or BRK.A?
Replies: 49
Views: 4037

Re: Why not just buy BRK.B or BRK.A?

Vision wrote:
Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:58 pm
Image
Price index? As in not including dividends, when dividends have made up a massive % of S&P 500 returns? Oh BI, you've surpassed yourself again with the incredibleness of your data-presentation.
by david1082b
Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dow’s tumultuous 120-year history, in one chart
Replies: 6
Views: 1783

Re: The Dow’s tumultuous 120-year history, in one chart

Does this chart factor in the dividends that stocks pay? No, it's simply the Dow index number, not very useful for understanding total return, especially for the earlier eras of high dividend yields. The "recovery time" labels are very misleading. It is Marketwatch though, so ignoring dividends is ...
by david1082b
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 5939

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

Sort of like Alan Greenspan's "Irrational Exuberance" speech given on December 5, 1996 warning of too much exuberance in the US Stock Market. The bull market went on for 4 years after that. I'm not sure it was warning about US stocks at all. It talked about the Japanese experience, then mentioned 1...