Search found 12 matches

by Financial Engineer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6239

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

I have tried and failed (after significant effort) to find a systematic backtest using CAPE that would have resulted in a higher return over the full data history available. Even with perfect hindsight the right path is not clear. This method of market timing may make one feel better but I see no in...
by Financial Engineer
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Fall Main Meeting 10/27/18
Replies: 20
Views: 2153

Re: Minnesota BH Fall Main Meeting 10/27/18

What a great lineup! See you at Ridgedale Library everyone.
by Financial Engineer
Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Seasonal Main Meeting 4/28/18
Replies: 16
Views: 3312

Re: Minnesota BH Seasonal Main Meeting 4/28/18

Looking forward to this meeting, now less than a week away!
by Financial Engineer
Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 158
Views: 12031

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

For bonds: Because starting yields are lower and they determine future returns. For stocks: Because the speculative return of an increasing Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is built into historic returns. Increasing PE ratios would need to continue increasing going forward to maintain the historic retur...
by Financial Engineer
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Seasonal Main Meeting 4/28/18
Replies: 16
Views: 3312

Re: Minnesota BH Seasonal Main Meeting 4/28/18

Though history may not repeat itself, it often rhymes (something similar is dubiously attributed to Mark Twain). I have observed that this aphorism is true for financial markets history, and for this reason it is worth diving into.
by Financial Engineer
Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Seasonal Main Meeting 4/28/18
Replies: 16
Views: 3312

Re: Minnesota BH Seasonal Main Meeting 4/28/18

I personally believe in buckets but understand their non-optimal aspects. But in investing it is very important to acknowledge and adapt to the non-optimal aspects of human nature. I will be attending that breakout for sure.
by Financial Engineer
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Logistics of using I Bonds as Emergency Fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 1389

Re: Logistics of using I Bonds as Emergency Fund?

If you have a bank account set up with Treasury Direct the sale of a directly held I-Bond is extremely easy online, no forms, just a few clicks and it goes straight to your account. Perfect for an emergency fund. In the case of a dual registered security, to be redeemed by the second person upon the...
by Financial Engineer
Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 10-28-17
Replies: 15
Views: 2158

Re: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 10-28-17

I will bring what I have learned from personal experience about 529s, taxable accounts, Roth IRAs, and savings bonds for college savings to the breakout discussion I am leading. I'll also summarize my conclusions from my recent investigations on the topic. Please be ready to share your own ideas, pi...
by Financial Engineer
Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:58 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 8-12-2017 + Summary
Replies: 19
Views: 2725

Re: Minnesota BH Quarterly Meeting August 12, 2017

See everyone at 9:30 today. Looking forward to it.
by Financial Engineer
Sat Aug 05, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 8-12-2017 + Summary
Replies: 19
Views: 2725

Re: Minnesota BH Quarterly Meeting August 12, 2017

A quote from Professor Terrance Odean who studies investor behavior: "The most common thing investors wonder is:'Where is the market headed?' What they should ask is: 'When do I need the money?'" The latter can be addressed in an Investment Policy Statement. Great reference. I believe Odean's quote...
by Financial Engineer
Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 8-12-2017 + Summary
Replies: 19
Views: 2725

Re: MInnesota BH Quarterly Meeting August 12, 2017

The market is surging to new highs. What to do? Check your investment policy statement, that's what! I'm looking forward to a good discussion on the topic.
by Financial Engineer
Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Bogleheads
Replies: 12
Views: 1312

Re: New to Bogleheads

Welcome.